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NASA NTRS1993

HALOE Antarctic observations in the spring of 1991

HALOE observations of O3, CH4, HF, H2O, NO, NO2, and HCl collected during the October 1991 Antarctic spring period are reported. The data show a constant CH4 mixing ratio of about 0.25 ppmv for the altitude range from 65 km down to about 25 km at the position of minimum wind speed in the vortex: i.e., the vortex center, and depressions in pressure versus longitude contours of NO, NO2, HF, and HCl in this same region. Water vapor, HF, and HCl enhancement are also observed in the vortex center region above about 25 km. Between 10 and 20 km, the expected mixing ratio signatures exist within the vortex, i.e., low ozone and dehydration. The water vapor increased by 50 percent, and the ozone level doubled inside the vortex between October 11 and 24 in the 15-20 km layer. These changes imply a time constant for recovery from ozone hole conditions of 19 and 30 days for O3 and H2O, respectively. The data further show the presence of air inside the vortex between 3 and 30 mb which has mixing ratios characteristic of midlatitudes.

Russell, James M., III↗

NASA NTRS1974

Correlations and linkages between the sun and the earth's atmosphere: Needed measurements and observations

A summary of needed measurements and observations is reported to identify the sequence of processes leading from change in solar input to change in tropospheric circulation and weather. Changes in the solar electromagnetic radiation have to be carefully monitored since variations over the solar cycle are small (less than one percent). It is suggested that changes in the ionization at the Pfotzer maximum could influence the formation of thunderstorms by changing the electric potential gradient. This could be checked by measuring the global atmospheric electric field. As an example of spacecraft observations, a worldwide distribution plot of nocturnal thunderstorms compiled from OSO-5 data shown; no obvious correlation with solar data had been found, but the time span of the data is rather limited and more sophisticated observation techniques could be used. Continuous and careful monitoring is recommended of the input of electromagnetic and particle radiation into the earth's atmosphere ozone distributions in the region above 30 km, and wind systems in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. In addition, special phenomena suspected to be important in the causal chain, such as cirrus cloud formation at high latitudes and thunderstorm activity, should be monitored on a global basis.

Kellogg, W. W.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Recent trends in stratospheric total ozone - Implications of dynamical and El Chichon perturbations

The recently reprocessed Nimbus-7 TOMS total ozone data from 1979 to 1989 are analyzed to assess the global impact of the El Chichon volcanic eruption on stratospheric total ozone. An apparent decrease in total ozone of 5 to 6 percent is present during the winter of 1982-1983 following the eruption of El Chichon. A regression analysis of total ozone with the equatorial zonal wind at 30 mb indicates that response to the quasi-biennial oscillation can explain much of the observed ozone anomaly, and that the total ozone decrease which can be attributed to El Chichon is at most 2 to 4 percent. This study also suggests that the interannual variability caused by the quasi-biennial oscillation and planetary wave activity may introduce apparent seasonal trends in total ozone and temperature in the lower stratosphere, particularly if the length of the data record is not very long. Such trends may affect the assessment of total ozone changes caused by chemical perturbations.

Chandra, S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Measurement capabilities of giant lidars for middle and upper atmospheric applications

The development and refinement of sophisticated remote sensing techniques during the past three decades have contributed enormously to our knowledge of the atmosphere. Lidar technologies have developed rapidly since the invention of the laser in 1961. Today, sophisticated systems are used to probe composition and structure throughout the atmosphere from the troposphere into the lower thermosphere and are making important contributions to several global change studies. While the recent advances in lidar technology have been impressive, the accuracy, resolution, and sensitivity of many systems are still limited by signal levels. We review the scientific rationale for developing a major new lidar facility to study the chemistry and dynamics of the Earth's atmosphere. The centerpiece of the facility is to be a 10-meter telescope which serves as the receiving system for several very large lidar systems. We discuss the observational capabilities of the proposed facility with particular emphasis on measurements of temperature, winds, water vapor, and ozone.

Gardner, Chester S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Qualitative study of the behavior of minor species during a stratospheric warming with a 3-D model

It is well-known that the behavior of the ozone layer depends upon the coupling between several processes in the atmosphere. Natural or anthropogenic pollutants emitted from the surface or injected directly at high altitude may affect this layer. Assessment studies for long-term changes of the ozone layer are conducted with the aid of various two-dimensional models. These models describe the long-term and seasonal evolution of minor constituents and take into account the interaction between all processes. However, many limitations affect the self-consistency of these models e.g., the circulation in these models is only meridional and vertical and is not able to represent all types of motion in the atmosphere. During a perturbed winter in the north polar regions, the vortex is displaced from the pole to lower latitude so that wind may be reversed at a given location. Perturbed air masses are transported outside the darkened regions and may mix with local air masses. Three-dimensional models are the only tools which can describe correctly these sporadic phenomena.

Ramaroson, R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Ozone Budget in the Upper Troposphere from Global Modeling Initiative (GMI)Simulations

Ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere are influenced by in-situ production, long-range tropospheric transport, and influx of stratospheric ozone, as well as by photochemical removal. Since ozone is an important greenhouse gas in this region, it is particularly important to understand how it will respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions and changes in stratospheric ozone fluxes.. This response will be determined by the relative balance of the different production, loss and transport processes. Ozone concentrations calculated by models will differ depending on the adopted meteorological fields, their chemical scheme, anthropogenic emissions, and treatment of the stratospheric influx. We performed simulations using the chemical-transport model from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) with meteorological fields from (It)h e NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), (2) the atmospheric GCM from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and (3) assimilated winds from GMAO . These simulations adopt the same chemical mechanism and emissions, and adopt the Synthetic Ozone (SYNOZ) approach for treating the influx of stratospheric ozone -. In addition, we also performed simulations for a coupled troposphere-stratosphere model with a subset of the same winds. Simulations were done for both 4degx5deg and 2degx2.5deg resolution. Model results are being tested through comparison with a suite of atmospheric observations. In this presentation, we diagnose the ozone budget in the upper troposphere utilizing the suite of GMI simulations, to address the sensitivity of this budget to: a) the different meteorological fields used; b) the adoption of the SYNOZ boundary condition versus inclusion of a full stratosphere; c) model horizontal resolution. Model results are compared to observations to determine biases in particular simulations; by examining these comparisons in conjunction with the derived budgets, we may pinpoint deficiencies in the representation of chemical/dynamical processes.

Rodriquez, J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Effect of Transport and Circulation Differences on Stratospheric Ozone Recovery in Two 35-year Three-dimensional Simulations

The NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has completed two 35-year simulations with WMO future baseline boundary conditions that simulate increasing N2O and CH4 emissions and decreasing organic chlorine and bromine emissions. Simulations were done with the GMI offline chemistry and transport model using 1) 1 year of winds from the Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FV-GCM), repeated for the 35 years, and 2) 1 year of winds from the Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System (FV-DAS), repeated for 35-years. The simulations have full stratospheric chemistry. To understand differences in simulated ozone recoveries, basic transport and circulation differences between these models are evaluated. The distribution of mean age of stratospheric air in the FV-GCM run agrees well with observations in the lower stratosphere but the FV-DAS ages are generally too low. This implies circulation and mixing differences that will affect the distributions of other trace species such as CH4, NO, and the organic halogens, all of which are responding to changing boundary conditions and are involved in ozone loss. Realism of model transport is evaluated, with particular attention given to regions and seasons where ozone recovery is expected. Preliminary results indicate increasing ozone trends in the lowermost stratosphere in summer and in the Antarctic and Arctic lower stratosphere in winter and spring.

Bhartia, P. K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Solar wind and high energy particle effects in the middle atmosphere

The solar wind variability and high energy particle effects in the neutral middle atmosphere are not much known. These factors are important in the high latitude upper mesosphere, lower thermosphere energy budget. They influence temperature, composition (minor constituents of nitric oxide, ozone), circulation (wind system) and airflow. The vertical and latitudinal structures of such effects, mechanisms of downward penetration of energy and questions of energy abundance are largely to be solved. The most important recent finding seems to be the discovery of the role of highly relativistic electrons in the middle atmosphere at L = 3 - 8 (Baker et al., 1987). The solar wind and high energy particle flux variability appear to form a part of the chain of possible Sun-weather (climate) relationships. The importance of such studies in the nineties is emphasized by their role in big international programs STEP and IGBP - Global Change.

Lastovicka, Jan↗

NASA NTRS2012

Variability and Anomalous Trends in the Global Sea Ice Cover

The advent of satellite data came fortuitously at a time when the global sea ice cover has been changing rapidly and new techniques are needed to accurately assess the true state and characteristics of the global sea ice cover. The extent of the sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere has been declining by about -4% per decade for the period 1979 to 2011 but for the period from 1996 to 2010, the rate of decline became even more negative at -8% per decade, indicating an acceleration in the decline. More intriguing is the drastically declining perennial sea ice area, which is the ice that survives the summer melt and observed to be retreating at the rate of -14% per decade during the 1979 to 2012 period. Although a slight recovery occurred in the last three years from an abrupt decline in 2007, the perennial ice extent was almost as low as in 2007 in 2011. The multiyear ice, which is the thick component of the perennial ice and regarded as the mainstay of the Arctic sea ice cover is declining at an even higher rate of -19% per decade. The more rapid decline of the extent of this thicker ice type means that the volume of the ice is also declining making the survival of the Arctic ice in summer highly questionable. The slight recovery in 2008, 2009 and 2010 for the perennial ice in summer was likely associated with an apparent cycle in the time series with a period of about 8 years. Results of analysis of concurrent MODIS and AMSR-E data in summer also provide some evidence of more extensive summer melt and meltponding in 2007 and 2011 than in other years. Meanwhile, the Antarctic sea ice cover, as observed by the same set of satellite data, is showing an unexpected and counter intuitive increase of about 1 % per decade over the same period. Although a strong decline in ice extent is apparent in the Bellingshausen/ Amundsen Seas region, such decline is more than compensated by increases in the extent of the sea ice cover in the Ross Sea region. The results of analysis of MODIS, AMSR-E and SSM/I data reveal that the sea ice production rate at the coastal polynyas along the Ross Ice Shelf has been increasing since 1992. This also means that the salinization rate and the formation of bottom water in the region are going up as well. Simulation studies indicate that the stronger production rate is likely associated with the ozone hole that has caused a deepening of the lows in the West Antarctic region and therefore stronger winds off the Ross Ice Shelf. Stronger winds causes larger coastal polynyas near the shelf and hence an enhanced ice production in the region during the autumn and winter period. Results of analysis of temperature data from MODIS and AMSR-E shows that the area and concentration of the sea ice cover are highly correlated with surface temperature for both the Arctic and Antarctic, especially in the seasonal regions where the correlation coefficients are about 0.9. Abnormally high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and surface ice temperatures (SITs) were also observed in 2007 and 2011when drastic reductions in the summer ice cover occurred, This phenomenon is consistent with the expected warming of the upper layer of the Arctic Ocean on account of ice-albedo feedback. Changes in atmospheric circulation are also expected to have a strong influence on the sea ice cover but the results of direct correlation analyses of the sea ice cover with the Northern and the Southern Annular Mode indices show relatively weak correlations, This might be due in part to the complexity of the dynamics of the system that can be further altered by some phenomena like the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and extra polar processes like the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (POD),

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Heliophysics 2009 Roadmap and Global Change: Possibilities for Improved Understanding of the Connection

Heliophysics is the science that includes all aspects of the research needed to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth and the solar system. Six science targets: 1. Origins of Near-Earth Plasma - to understand the origin and transport of terrestrial plasma from its source to the magnetosphere and solar wind. 2. Solar Energetic Particle Acceleration and Transport - to understand how and where solar eruptions accelerate energetic particles that reach Earth. 3. Ion-Neutral Coupling in the Atmosphere - to understand how neutral winds control ionospheric variability. 4. Climate Impacts of Space Radiation - to understand our atmosphere s response to auroral, radiation belt, and solar energetic particles, and the associated effects on nitric oxide (NO) and ozone. 5. Dynamic Geospace Coupling - to understand how magnetospheric dynamics provides energy into the coupled ionosphere-magnetosphere system. 6. Heliospheric Magnetics - to understand the flow and dynamics of transient magnetic structures form the solar interior to Earth.

Spann, Jim↗

NASA NTRS1991

Global average ozone change from November 1978 to May 1990

A recent recalibration and reprocessing of the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data have made possible a new determination of the global average total ozone decrease of 3.5 percent over the 11-year period, January 1, 1979, to December 31, 1989, with a 2 sigma error of 1.4 percent. The revised TOMS ozone trend data are in agreement, within error limits, with the average of 39 ground-based Dobson stations and with the world standard Dobson spectrometer 83 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Superimposed on the 11-year ozone trend is a possible solar cycle effect, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), annual, and semiannual cycles. Using solar 10-7-cm flux data and 30-mbar Singapore wind data (QBO), a time series has been constructed that reproduces the long-term behavior of the globally averaged ozone. Removal of the apparent solar cycle effect from the global average reduces the net ozone loss to 2.66 + or - 1.4 percent per decade. The precise value of the global average ozone trend depends on the latitude range selected, with ranges greater than + or - 69 emphasizing the larger variations at high latitudes.

Herman, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Assimilation of Stratospheric Meteorological and Constituent Observations: A Review

This talk reviews the assimilation of meteorological and constituent observations of the stratosphere. The first efforts to assimilate observations into stratospheric models were during the early 1980s, and a number of research studies followed during the next decade. Since the launch of the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) in 1991, model-assimilated data sets of the stratospheric meteorological state have been routinely available. These assimilated data sets were critical in bringing together observations from the different instruments on UARS as well as linking UARS observations to measurements from other platforms. Using trajectory-mapping techniques, meteorological assimilation analyses are, now, widely used in the analysis of constituent observations and have increased the level of quantitative study of stratospheric chemistry and transport. During the 1990s the use of winds and temperatures from assimilated data sets became standard for offline chemistry and transport modeling. variability in middle latitudes. The transport experiments, however, reveal a set of shortcomings that become obvious as systematic errors are integrated over time. Generally, the tropics are not well represented, mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes is overestimated, and the residual circulation is not accurate. These shortcomings reveal underlying fundamental challenges related to bias and noise. Current studies using model simulation and data assimilation in controlled experimentation are highlighting the issues that must be addressed if assimilated data sets are to be convincingly used to study interannual variability and decadal change. observations. The primary focus has been on stratospheric ozone, but there are efforts that investigate a suite of reactive chemical constituents. Recent progress in ozone assimilation shows the potential of assimilation to contribute to the validation of ozone observations and, ultimately, the retrieval of ozone profiles from space-based radiance measurements. Assimilated data sets provide accurate analyses of synoptic and planetary Scale At the same time, stratospheric assimilation is evolving to include constituent

Rood, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A two-dimensional model study of the QBO signal in SAGE II NO2 and O3

Calculations of the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) signal in Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II O3 and NO2 data between 1984 and 1991 are presented and have been investigated by using a two-dimensional model. The isentropic 2D model is a fully interactive radiative-dynamical-chemical model in which the eddy fluxes of chemical species are calculated in a consistent manner. The QBO in the model has been forced by relaxing the equatorial zonal wind toward the observations at Singapore allowing the comparison of the model with observations from specific years. The model reproduces the observed vertical structure of the equatorial ozone anomaly with the well-known transition from dynamical to photochemical control at around 28km. The model also reproduces the observed vertical structure of the SAGE II observed NO2 anomaly. The model studies have shown that it is the QBO modulation of NO2 which the main cause of QBO signal in O3 above 30 km. The model also reproduces the observed latitudinal structure of the QBO signals in O3 and NO2. Due to the differing horizontal distribution of O3 and NO(y) the ozone signal shows a distinct phase change in the subtropics whereas the NO2 anomaly gives a broader signal.

Chipperfield, M. P.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the Tropics and high latitudes, are consistent with predictions of a number of previous GCM studies. Finally, direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is predicted to induce strong regional cooling over East and South Asia. Wintertime rainfall over southeastern China and the Indian subcontinent is predicted to decrease because of the increased atmospheric stability and decreased surface evaporation, while the geographic distribution of precipitation is also predicted to be altered as a result of aerosol-induced changes in wind flow.

Chen, Wei-Ting↗

NASA NTRS1989

Relativistic magnetospheric electrons: Lower ionospheric conductivity and long-term atmospheric variability

Long term observations of relativistic electrons in the earth's outer magnetosphere show a strong solar cycle dependence with a prominent intensity maximum during the approach to solar minimum. This population therefore closely corresponds to the presence of high speed solar wind streams emanating from solar coronal holes. Using a numerical code, the precipitating electron energy deposition in the earth's upper and middle atmosphere were calculated. Observed events (typically persisting several days) would have maximum effect in the 40 to 60 km altitude range with peak energy depositions greater than 110 keV/cu cm-s. It is suggested that this electron population could play an important long term role in modulating lower D region ionization and middle atmospheric ozone chemistry. Methods are described of observing middle atmospheric and lower ionospheric effects of the electrons including balloon, riometer, and space-based ozone sensor systems. A particularly promising approach may involve the monitoring of global Schumann resonance modes which are sensitive to global changes in the properties of the earth-ionosphere cavity. Present work indicates that Schumann resonance properties are moderately correlated with the flux of precipitating relativistic electrons thus offering the possibility of continuously monitoring this aspect of magnetosphere-atmosphere coupling.

Baker, D. N.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Radicals and Reservoirs in the GMI Chemistry and Transport Model: Comparison to Measurements

The most important use of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is to predict the future composition of the atmosphere. The amounts of gases like chlorofluorcarbons, methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane are changing and the stratospheric ozone layer will change because these gases are changing. Methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane all have natural sources, and also change because of human activity. Chlorofluorcarbons are man-made gases; these are known to decrease stratospheric ozone and future production is banned. They are long-lived gases, and many decades will pass before they are insignificant in the atmosphere. The models are used to predict changes in ozone and other gases; this is a straightforward application. The models must be also tested using observations for the present day atmosphere. This is a challenging task, because the model contains more than 50 species and more than 150 chemical reactions. Data from satellites, ground stations, aircraft and balloons are used to evaluate the model. Different models that are used in international assessments produce different results; in the most recent assessment some predict that ozone will return to 1980 levels by 2025 and others predict that this will not happen until 2050. Since all the parts of the models are conceptually the same, there must be differences in implementation that produce these differences, This work takes a single model, two different sets of winds and temperatures, and repeats the same prediction for the future. Here we compare the results for these two simulations with many observations. The purpose is to identify differences in the model results for the present atmosphere that will lead to different predictions. This sort of controlled comparison will reduce uncertainty in the predictions for stratospheric ozone.

Douglas, Anne R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Photochemical ozone production in tropical squall line convection during NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment/Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment 2A

The role of convection was examined in trace gas transport and ozone production in a tropical dry season squall line sampled on August 3, 1985, during NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment/Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment 2A (NASA GTE/ABLE 2A) in Amazonia, Brazil. Two types of analyses were performed. Transient effects within the cloud are examined with a combination of two-dimensional cloud and one-dimensional photochemical modeling. Tracer analyses using the cloud model wind fields yield a series of cross sections of NO(x), CO, and O3 distribution during the lifetime of the cloud; these fields are used in the photochemical model to compute the net rate of O3 production. At noon, when the cloud was mature, the instantaneous ozone production potential in the cloud is between 50 and 60 percent less than in no-cloud conditions due to reduced photolysis and cloud scavenging of radicals. Analysis of cloud inflows and outflows is used to differentiate between air that is undisturbed and air that has been modified by the storm. These profiles are used in the photochemical model to examine the aftereffects of convective redistribution in the 24-hour period following the storm. Total tropospheric column O3 production changed little due to convection because so little NO(x) was available in the lower troposphere. However, the integrated O3 production potential in the 5- to 13-km layer changed from net destruction to net production as a result of the convection. The conditions of the August 3, 1985, event may be typical of the early part of the dry season in Amazonia, when only minimal amounts of pollution from biomass burning have been transported into the region.

Pickering, Kenneth E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Arctic Warming Signals from Satellite Observations

Global warming signals are expected to be amplified in the Arctic primarily because of ice-albedo feedback associated with the high reflectivity of ice and snow that blankets much of the region. The Arctic had been a poorly explored territory basically because of its general inaccessibility on account of extremely harsh weather conditions and the dominant presence of thick perennial ice in the region. The advent of satellite remote sensing systems since the 1960s, however, enabled the acquisition of synoptic data that depict in good spatial detail the temporal changes of many Arctic surface parameters. Among the surface parameters that have been studied using space based systems are surface temperature, sea ice concentration, snow cover, surface albedo and phytoplankton concentration. Associated atmospheric parameters, such as cloud cover, temperature profile, ozone concentration, and aerosol have also been derived. Recent observational and phenomenological studies have indeed revealed progressively changing conditions in the Arctic during the last few decades (e g , Walsh et al. 1996; Serreze et al 2000; Comiso and Parkinson 2004). The changes included declines in the extent and area of surfaces covered by sea ice and snow, increases in melt area over the Greenland ice sheets, thawing of the permafrost, warming in the troposphere, and retreat of the glaciers. These observations are consistent with the observed global warming that has been associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Karl and Trenberth 2003) and confirmed by modeling studies (Holland and Bitz, 2003). The Arctic system, however, is still not well understood complicated by a largely fluctuating wind circulation and atmospheric conditions (Proshutinsky and Johnson 1997) and controlled by what is now known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which provides a measure of the strength of atmospheric activities in the region (Thompson and Wallace 1998). Meanwhile, the observed Arctic conditions since the 1970s have been shown to exhibit a linear behavior that directly contradicts what has been expected from the A0 (Overland, 2005). The decade of the 1990s has been regarded as the warmest decade in the last century and current data indicates that the 2000s may be even a warmer decade than the 1990s further supporting the linear variability. In this paper, we use satellite data to gain insights into the warming Arctic and how the abnormally warm conditions during the last few years are reflected in the region.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗