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DOE OSTI2025

First measurement of symmetric cumulants of hexagonal flow harmonics in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

Correlations between event-by-event fluctuations of anisotropic flow harmonics are measured in Pb-Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of 5.02 TeV, as recorded by the ALICE detector at the LHC. This study presents correlations up to the hexagonal flow harmonic 𝑣 6 , which was measured for the first time. The magnitudes of these higher-order correlations are found to vary as a function of collision centrality and harmonic order. These measurements are compared to viscous hydrodynamic model calculations with EKRT initial conditions and to the iEBE-VISHNU model with T R ⁢ENTo initial conditions. The observed discrepancies between the data and the model calculations vary depending on the harmonic combinations. Due to the sensitivity of model parameters estimated with Bayesian analyses to these higher-order observables, the results presented in this work provide new and independent constraints on the initial conditions and transport properties in theoretical models used to describe the system created in heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model-independent determination of the strong-phase difference between D 0 and D ¯ 0 → π + π − π + π − decays

Measurements of the strong-phase difference between D 0 and D ¯ 0 → π + π − π + π − are performed in bins of phase space. The study exploits a sample of quantum-correlated D D ¯ mesons collected by the BESIII experiment in e + e − collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 3.773 GeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.93 fb − 1 . Here, D denotes a neutral charm meson in a superposition of flavor eigenstates. The reported results are valuable for measurements of the C P -violating phase γ (also denoted ϕ 3 ) in B ± → D K ± , D → π + π − π + π − decays, and the binning schemes are designed to provide good statistical sensitivity to this parameter. The expected uncertainty on γ arising from the precision of the strong-phase measurements, when applied to very large samples of B -meson decays, is around 1.5° or 2°, depending on the binning scheme. The binned strong-phase parameters are combined to give a value of F + 4 π = 0.746 ± 0.010 ± 0.004 for the C P -even fraction of D 0 → π + π − π + π − decays, which is around 30% more precise than the previous best measurement of this quantity. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Ablikim, M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

FIREFLY: heat load and particle exhaust approximations for rapid evaluation of divertor designs

The divertor in a magnetic confinement fusion reactor is an essential component for power dissipation and particle removal. The FIREFLY package for rapid evaluation of divertor designs is presented as an extension of the FLARE code for field line reconstruction from a flux tube mesh. First, divertor loads are approximated with a simplified heat transport model. Neutralized particles are then sampled from the resulting load distribution, and the EIRENE code is used to track molecules and atoms in a plasma background while accounting for dissociation, charge exchange and ionization. Particles are removed on pumping surfaces in order to estimate the exhaust efficiency for a given divertor geometry. Optimization of the divertor geometry for more efficient particle exhaust is explored by using W7-X as an example, and the sensitivity to model parameters for the plasma background in the proxy calculations is evaluated.

mesh generation, magnetic field lines, scrape-off ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Employing a Hardware-in-the-Loop Approach to Realize a Fully Homomorphic Controller for a Small Modular Advanced High Temperature Reactor

This paper addresses the cybersecurity challenges of advanced nuclear reactors by integrating fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) into their control systems, enabling encrypted processing of control signals without compromising functionality. Advanced nuclear reactors, including Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, aim to achieve autonomous and remote operations, reducing costs and enhancing competitiveness. However, these advancements expand the attack surface for cyberattacks, particularly in autonomous and remote operation scenarios. Cyberattacks can exploit vulnerabilities to manipulate physical processes, causing shutdowns, asset damage, or public harm. Such attacks begin with passive reconnaissance, where adversaries intercept communications or observe behaviors to gather information, which is then leveraged to execute cyber-physical attacks by injecting malicious commands. Nuclear power must adopt cybersecurity protection measures to secure the integrity and availability of their digital control systems. This paper demonstrates the application of FHE to secure operations by enabling encrypted processing of sensitive signals and parameters -- ensuring privacy without exposing data. FHE supports secure mathematical operations on encrypted data without requiring decryption. Using a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) approach, this paper implements an FHE-integrated controller on a BeagleBone Black (BBB) controlling a simulation of the Small Modular Advanced High Temperature Reactor (SmAHTR). By doing so, the encrypted controller protects the integrity of critical set points and control signals during transmission and processing. Thus, FHE-integrated controllers enhance secure operations of advanced nuclear reactors while maintaining functionality.

control systems↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hadron-Argon Cross-Section Measurements at Protodune

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation experiment designed to measure neutrino oscillations with unprecedented precision, specifically seeking to identify CP violation in the lepton sector. DUNE utilizes the Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) as its core detecting technology, offering high-resolution imaging to reconstruct neutrino interactions on argon. A primary challenge in this reconstruction is the modeling of hadronic final-state interactions (FSI), where hadrons produced at the initial interaction vertex undergo further scattering before escaping the nucleus. In this thesis, I utilize the ProtoDUNE-SP detector and its 1~GeV/$c$ hadron beam at the CERN Neutrino Platform to present the first measurements of total inelastic $\pi^+$-argon and proton-argon cross sections in an energy regime critical to DUNE. I detail the development and validation of the ``slicing method'', which utilizes a kiloton-scale LArTPC to extract hadron-argon cross sections. These measurements provide an indispensable benchmark for informing DUNE's FSI modeling, and our results show no significant tension with current model predictions. Additionally, I study the impact of FSI modeling on DUNE’s sensitivity to oscillation parameters. This study demonstrates that variations in FSI models may be degenerate with oscillation features, highlighting the necessity of using direct experimental data to refine interaction models. Finally, I provide an outlook on related studies that will further contribute to this effort, supporting the ambitious physics goals of upcoming neutrino oscillation programs including DUNE.

Yin-Rui, Liu [U. Chicago (main)]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

High construction costs have plagued recent nuclear projects and they hamper the widespread deployment of nuclear technology. The Nuclear Cost Reduction Tool is a plant economic framework that quantifies the impact that various plant design and construction attributes have on construction costs and cost overruns and shows the positive effects of learning over a series of deployments. However, a downside of the current model is that all model outputs and capabilities are deterministic. To provide a more comprehensive view, this study evaluated the impact of model parameter uncertainty through a sensitivity analysis applied to 18 model parameters. This approach quantified the impact of model uncertainty on the output variables of Net Overnight Capital Cost (Net OCC), Construction Duration (CD), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Monte Carlo analysis revealed uncertainty distributions for these variables, showing that absolute uncertainty decreases over a series of deployments. A local sensitivity analysis showed that even small parameter perturbations (5%) can have a significant impact on project execution, highlighting areas that could reduce costs by billions across an order book of plants. The results of this study have improved the understanding of the model and identified the most impactful model parameters and construction attributes.

Levelized Cost of Electricity↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reassessing the Origins and Contemporary Relevance of ck Acceptability Parameters: Evolving Perspectives on Similarity

“Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses Applied to Criticality Safety Validation,” introduces sensitivity and uncertainty methods to address challenges in defining and extending areas of applicability for criticality safety validation. These areas are traditionally defined by the bounds or limits on key parameters, but establishing valid ranges and managing complex parameter variations remain challenging. NUREG/CR-6655 introduces ck and other integral indices, as well as concepts such as the completeness of benchmark coverage, to better quantify system similarities. The work proposed herein seeks to evaluate these foundational concepts to ensure that the bounds remain effective in guiding the assessment of similarity and applicability in modern applications. The concept of completeness, along with other parameters envisioned within the framework, serves as an example of the foundational ideas that have been established, though their effectiveness in practice may not be fully understood. Advancements in scripting tools, coupled with the speed and efficiency of modern computing and statistical models, now allow for faster and more thorough assessments than previously possible. These advancements also enable the identification of trends within the data, which could provide additional insight into system behavior and further broaden the scope of previously performed benchmarks. By leveraging these capabilities, we will revisit and expand the scope of these foundational methods to determine whether the necessary elements for robust similarity evaluation are already embedded, partially realized, or remain untapped.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

VARI3D & PERSENT: Perturbation and Sensitivity Analysis

The nodal diffusion method is one of the most widely used approaches in modern reactor analysis. In the nodal diffusion method, a coarse multi-group set of “homogenized” parameters is constructed such that the complex geometry of a reactor core along with the energy dependence of neutron and gamma ray cross sections in a nuclear reactor are conserved in the simpler geometry. The homogenization is typically done on a fuel assembly level as is the case in the DIF3D code developed at Argonne National Laboratory. The nodal methodology is used primarily to predict fuel cycle behavior of nuclear systems of which there is a substantial amount of validation in the literature. Another use of the nodal method is to obtain reactivity coefficients and kinetics parameters for use in a safety analysis of a given nuclear reactor. While there are many ways to obtain reactivity worth and kinetics parameters, the work presented in this manuscript is unique as it provides the user with the ability to compute reactivity worths, kinetics parameters, and cross section sensitivities with a Cartesian and hexagonal geometry based transport code. This manuscript serves as a single manual for two separate codes: VARI3D and PERSENT. The VARI3D code (VARIational 3D) is based upon the classic finite difference diffusion theory solver available in DIF3D. The PERSENT code (PERturbation and SENitivity for Transport) is based upon the variational nodal method employed in DIF3D termed VARIANT. The VARIANT solver was added to DIF3D in 1995 and has seen continued development and use for the last 18 years. Because VARI3D primarily uses deprecated coding practices, rather than incorporating the perturbation and sensitivity treatments for transport within VARI3D, a new coding development was built using modern Fortran coding. The primary purpose of this manual is to describe the theory behind PERSENT (and by convenience, that of VARI3D) and discuss the input and output of PERSENT along with giving potential users an idea of how to use it. While this manuscript does describe the input and output of VARI3D, the PERSENT code is intended to be the replacement capability of VARI3D as PERSENT can generate nearly identical (if not superior) diffusion theory results. In this manuscript, the relevant aspects of generalized perturbation theory and exact perturbation theory that apply to both VARI3D and PERSENT are covered. The input and output of VARI3D is displayed by excerpting several of the example problems. Similarly, the input and output of PERSENT is displayed along with tips on how best to use the code. Note that the input and output of the inhomogeneous solver wrapped around DIF3D (DIF3D_IFS) is also discussed as it is needed to carry out some of the sensitivities in PERSENT such as reaction rate ratios. This manuscript describes several perturbation and sensitivity problems, and the results computed using PERSENT. From these sections, potential users should find that PERSENT provides not only the typical tables of numbers desired in perturbation and sensitivity analysis work, but also can visually plot the result for a more thorough understanding of the space and energy distribution (Section 5). Overall, PERSENT is observed to produce accurate reactivity worths and sensitivities for the displayed set of test problems and clearly demonstrates the need to have a transport-based sensitivity capability as evident from the thousands of percent errors observed in the 21-group hexagonal fast reactor problem (covered in Section 7). The uncertainty calculation capability is described in Section 3 and demonstrated in Section 7.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

VARI3D & PERSENT: Perturbation and Sensitivity Analysis (Revision 5)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep-learning based artificial intelligence tool for melt pools and defect segmentation

Accelerating fabrication of additively manufactured components with precise microstructures is important for quality and qualification of built parts, as well as for a fundamental understanding of process improvement. Accomplishing this requires fast and robust characterization of melt pool geometries and structural defects in images. This paper proposes a pragmatic approach based on implementation of deep learning models and self-consistent workflow that enable systematic segmentation of defects and melt pools in optical images. Deep learning is based on an image-to-image translation–conditional generative adversarial neural network architecture. An artificial intelligence (AI) tool based on this deep learning model enables fast and incrementally more accurate predictions of the prevalent geometric features, including melt pool boundaries and printing-induced structural defects. We present statistical analysis of geometric features that is enabled by the AI tool, showing strong spatial correlation of defects and the melt pool boundaries. The correlations of widths and heights of melt pools with dataset processing parameters show the highest sensitivity to thermal influences resulting from laser passes in adjacent and subsequent layer passes. The presented models and tools are demonstrated on the aluminum alloy and datasets produced with different sets of processing parameters. However, they have universal quality and could easily be adapted to different material compositions. The method can be easily generalized to microstructural characterizations other than optical microscopy.

additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Comparison of Neutron Detector Sensitivities [Poster]

Nuclear data (ND) is vital to predictive simulations such as those completed with MCNP®. ND sensitivities are used to optimize the design of benchmark experiments. Diverse benchmarks (including neutron noise) are required to further our understanding of ND. Measured and simulated data of a 4.5-kg Pu sphere was used to calculate neutron noise parameters and associated ND Sensitivities

Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP)↗

DOE OSTI2026

First High-Throughput Evaluation of Dark Matter Detector Materials

In this work we perform the first high-throughput search and evaluation of materials that can serve as excellent low-mass dark matter detectors. Using properties of close to 1000 materials from the Materials Project database, we project the sensitivity in dark matter parameter space for experiments constructed from each material, including both absorption and scattering processes between dark matter and electrons. Using the anisotropic materials in the dataset, we further compute the level of daily modulation in interaction rates and the resulting directional sensitivities, highlighting materials with prospects to detect the dark matter wind. Our methods provide the basic tools for the data-driven design of dark matter detectors, and our findings lay the groundwork for the next generation of highly optimized direct searches for dark matter as light as the keV scale. This represents a major step in the application of results from condensed matter physics to dark matter search design.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2–CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks are analyzed. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi-dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties, are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2–CAM6 PPE is publicly available and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g., coupling to the land surface).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Evaluation of Spectral Methods for Robust Reactor Noise Estimation

Reactor noise analysis provides a noninvasive means to determine neutron kinetic parameters from stochastic fluctuations in detector signals. However, standard cross-power spectral density (CPSD) analyses can be sensitive to numerical processing choices, which may introduce processing-dependent systematic shifts in estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant (α) and limit reproducibility. This study uses a hybrid multitaper–Welch spectral estimator to analyze subcritical noise measurements from a fast-spectrum critical assembly. The decay constant α was extracted using three frequency-domain methods: the CPSD, the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), and the generalized magnitude-squared coherence (GMSC). These coherence-based estimators normalize detector auto-spectral structure and are expected to reduce the sensitivity of fitted α values to processing parameters. A Sobol global sensitivity analysis identified which numerical inputs most strongly influence the fitted values of α. All estimators produced a linear dependence of α on inverse count rate, with delayed-critical extrapolations near 1.7 × 10 4 s −1 , in agreement within 8% of MCNP6.3 KOPTS benchmark calculations. Sensitivity results show that while the CPSD depends on both time-bin width and taper selection, the MSC and GMSC are dominated by time-bin width alone, indicating reduced parameter coupling and greater robustness to processing variability. These findings demonstrate the feasibility and practical value of coherence-based spectral estimators for extracting α from reactor noise and support their broader application to multi-detector and irregular datasets in subcritical system characterization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Different model assumptions about plant hydraulics and photosynthetic temperature acclimation yield diverging implications for tropical forest gross primary production under warming

Tropical forest photosynthesis can decline at high temperatures due to (1) biochemical responses to increasing temperature and (2) stomatal responses to increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which is associated with increasing temperature. It is challenging to disentangle the influence of these two mechanisms on photosynthesis in observations, because temperature and VPD are tightly correlated in tropical forests. Nonetheless, quantifying the relative strength of these two mechanisms is essential for understanding how tropical gross primary production (GPP) will respond to climate change, because increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration may partially offset VPD-driven stomatal responses, but is not expected to mitigate the effects of temperature-driven biochemical responses. We used two terrestrial biosphere models to quantify how physiological process assumptions (photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulic stress) and functional traits (e.g., maximum xylem conductivity) influence the relative strength of modeled temperature versus VPD effects on light-saturated GPP at an Amazonian forest site, a seasonally dry tropical forest site, and an experimental tropical forest mesocosm. By simulating idealized climate change scenarios, we quantified the divergence in GPP predictions under model configurations with stronger VPD effects compared with stronger direct temperature effects. Assumptions consistent with stronger direct temperature effects resulted in larger GPP declines under warming, while assumptions consistent with stronger VPD effects resulted in more resilient GPP under warming. Furthermore, our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the role of direct temperature and indirect VPD effects for projecting the resilience of tropical forests in the future, and demonstrate that the relative strength of temperature versus VPD effects in models is highly sensitive to plant functional parameters and structural assumptions about photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for a Long-Lived $\mu\mu$ Resonance in the NuMI Beam at ICARUS

The ICARUS detector in the Short-Baseline Neutrino program at Fermilab is sensitive to “long-lived” new physics particles that would be produced in the Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beam and decay inside the ICARUS liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). We show results from a new analysis in ICARUS which searched for di-muon decays from a long-lived particle produced in kaon decay in the NuMI beam. The search is sensitive to new areas of parameter space for the Higgs portal scalar and an axion-like particle model. The sensitivity is also presented in a model-independent way applicable to any new physics model predicting the process $K \to \pi+S(\to\mu\mu)$, for a long-lived particle S. This is the first search for new physics performed with the ICARUS detector at Fermilab. It paves the way for the future program of long-lived particle searches at ICARUS.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid numerical and machine learning framework for evaluating the performance of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery

Aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB) is a promising cost-competitive technology for large-scale energy storage. Among existing work, the dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based AORFB has demonstrated high energy density and low capacity degradation in 10 cm2 cells during lab tests. However, its commercial-scale performance in more complex environments remains unknown, posing a barrier for commercialization. To address this gap, this work presents a comprehensive performance evaluation of a 780 cm 2 DHP-based AORFB by combining physics-based numerical model, machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models, and ML-derived sensitivity quantification. Specifically, we first select 12 key battery parameters that include 10 physicochemical quantities and 2 operation quantities, then select 6 performance metrics that include energy efficiency (EE), discharging capacity, charging energy, and power losses due to concentration, activation, and ohmic over-potentials. With such selection, 12800 combinations of the 12 parameters are subsequently generated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. These combinations, together with 38 pre-defined State of Charge, are then integrated to a validated AORFB model developed in COMSOL to compute the performance metrics. With both input parameters and performance metrics, 60 deep neural network (DNN) surrogate models are then trained to approximate the relationship between the 10 physicochemical quantities and 6 performance metrics at each flow rate and current density. Sensitivity scores are then calculated based on the DNN models. Two additional sensitivity analysis tools, i.e., MARS, and SHAP, are also used to cross-validate the sensitivity scores from the DNN. The results demonstrate that 1) the standard potential ranks the first in controlling EE and charging energy, 2) the membrane conductivity is most critical for power loss and EE, and 3) specific area and reaction rate control activation power loss.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process- Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process- based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data- constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process- based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam- derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field- measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter- response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post- calibration GPP R2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

Carbon↗