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Variability of moisture in the upper troposphere as inferred from TOVS satellite observations and the ECMWF model analyses in 1989

Large-scale variability of moisture in the upper troposphere is examined using TIROS (Television Infrared Observation Satellite) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) satellite observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analyses from 1989 in the latitude band from 40 deg N to 40 S. To compare these dissimilar datasets, upwelling radiances were computed for the 6-7 micrometer water vapor band from the ECMWF temperature and moisture analyses, and these computed radiances were compared to the corresponding TOVS satellite observations. The ECMWF-based radiances reproduce the general locations and seasonal cycle of the TOVS-observed moisture features, particularly after an improved convective parameterization scheme was adopted by ECMWF in May 1989. However, the ECMWF analysis scheme still results in much milder lateral moisture gradients and seasonal contrasts than indicated by the TOVS observations. Seasonally, the upper troposphere in each hemisphere dries in winter and moistens in summer, but there are regions in each hemisphere that run counter to this seasonal trend, apparently depending on continental- and monsoon-scale dynamics. Dynamically, the TOVS-observed regions of significant subtropical dryness are correlated with persistent subsidence indicated by ECMWF 300-mb vertical velocity analyses. The TOVS radiance observations indicate large variations in space and time of the upper-tropospheric moisture field, which are not fully captured by the ECMWF analyses.

Salathe, Eric P., Jr.

Cloud-Scale Numerical Modeling of the Arctic Boundary Layer

The interactions between sea ice, open ocean, atmospheric radiation, and clouds over the Arctic Ocean exert a strong influence on global climate. Uncertainties in the formulation of interactive air-sea-ice processes in global climate models (GCMs) result in large differences between the Arctic, and global, climates simulated by different models. Arctic stratus clouds are not well-simulated by GCMs, yet exert a strong influence on the surface energy budget of the Arctic. Leads (channels of open water in sea ice) have significant impacts on the large-scale budgets during the Arctic winter, when they contribute about 50 percent of the surface fluxes over the Arctic Ocean, but cover only 1 to 2 percent of its area. Convective plumes generated by wide leads may penetrate the surface inversion and produce condensate that spreads up to 250 km downwind of the lead, and may significantly affect the longwave radiative fluxes at the surface and thereby the sea ice thickness. The effects of leads and boundary layer clouds must be accurately represented in climate models to allow possible feedbacks between them and the sea ice thickness. The FIRE III Arctic boundary layer clouds field program, in conjunction with the SHEBA ice camp and the ARM North Slope of Alaska and Adjacent Arctic Ocean site, will offer an unprecedented opportunity to greatly improve our ability to parameterize the important effects of leads and boundary layer clouds in GCMs.

Krueger, Steven K.

Aerodynamic Shape Sensitivity Analysis and Design Optimization of Complex Configurations Using Unstructured Grids

A three-dimensional unstructured grid approach to aerodynamic shape sensitivity analysis and design optimization has been developed and is extended to model geometrically complex configurations. The advantage of unstructured grids (when compared with a structured-grid approach) is their inherent ability to discretize irregularly shaped domains with greater efficiency and less effort. Hence, this approach is ideally suited for geometrically complex configurations of practical interest. In this work the nonlinear Euler equations are solved using an upwind, cell-centered, finite-volume scheme. The discrete, linearized systems which result from this scheme are solved iteratively by a preconditioned conjugate-gradient-like algorithm known as GMRES for the two-dimensional geometry and a Gauss-Seidel algorithm for the three-dimensional; similar procedures are used to solve the accompanying linear aerodynamic sensitivity equations in incremental iterative form. As shown, this particular form of the sensitivity equation makes large-scale gradient-based aerodynamic optimization possible by taking advantage of memory efficient methods to construct exact Jacobian matrix-vector products. Simple parameterization techniques are utilized for demonstrative purposes. Once the surface has been deformed, the unstructured grid is adapted by considering the mesh as a system of interconnected springs. Grid sensitivities are obtained by differentiating the surface parameterization and the grid adaptation algorithms with ADIFOR (which is an advanced automatic-differentiation software tool). To demonstrate the ability of this procedure to analyze and design complex configurations of practical interest, the sensitivity analysis and shape optimization has been performed for a two-dimensional high-lift multielement airfoil and for a three-dimensional Boeing 747-200 aircraft.

Taylor, Arthur C., III

Automation of reverse engineering process in aircraft modeling and related optimization problems

During the year of 1994, the engineering problems in aircraft modeling were studied. The initial concern was to obtain a surface model with desirable geometric characteristics. Much of the effort during the first half of the year was to find an efficient way of solving a computationally difficult optimization model. Since the smoothing technique in the proposal 'Surface Modeling and Optimization Studies of Aerodynamic Configurations' requires solutions of a sequence of large-scale quadratic programming problems, it is important to design algorithms that can solve each quadratic program in a few interactions. This research led to three papers by Dr. W. Li, which were submitted to SIAM Journal on Optimization and Mathematical Programming. Two of these papers have been accepted for publication. Even though significant progress has been made during this phase of research and computation times was reduced from 30 min. to 2 min. for a sample problem, it was not good enough for on-line processing of digitized data points. After discussion with Dr. Robert E. Smith Jr., it was decided not to enforce shape constraints in order in order to simplify the model. As a consequence, P. Dierckx's nonparametric spline fitting approach was adopted, where one has only one control parameter for the fitting process - the error tolerance. At the same time the surface modeling software developed by Imageware was tested. Research indicated a substantially improved fitting of digitalized data points can be achieved if a proper parameterization of the spline surface is chosen. A winning strategy is to incorporate Dierckx's surface fitting with a natural parameterization for aircraft parts. The report consists of 4 chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of reverse engineering related to aircraft modeling and some preliminary findings of the effort in the second half of the year. Chapters 2-4 are the research results by Dr. W. Li on penalty functions and conjugate gradient methods for quadratic programming problems.

Li, W.

A new convective adjustment scheme

A marked divergence in philosophy is presented. The primary objective of the proposed parameterization scheme is to ensure that the local vertical temperature and moisture structures, which in nature are strongly constrained by convection, be realistic in the large scale model. The concept of a quasi-equilibrium between the cloud field and the large-scale forcing has been well established. This means that convective regions have characteristic temperature and moisture structures that can be documented observationally and used as the basis of a convective adjustment procedure. In the scheme proposed here, the temperature and moisture structures will be adjusted simultaneously toward observed quasi-equilibrium structures. This ensures that on the grid scale a global model always maintains a realistic vertical temperature and moisture structure in the presence of convection. The saturation point formulation of moist thermodynamics will be used to introduce the observational and theoretical basis of the proposed convective adjustment. The scheme is then applied to a series of data sets from GATE, BOMEX, ATEX and an Arctic air-mass transformation to show the sensitivity of the scheme to different parameters and develop a parameter set suitable for both shallow and deep convection in a global model.

Betts, A. K.

Large-scale experimental technology with remote sensing in land surface hydrology and meteorology

Two field experiments to study atmospheric and land surface processes and their interactions are summarized. The Hydrologic-Atmospheric Pilot Experiment, which tested techniques for measuring evaporation, soil moisture storage, and runoff at scales of about 100 km, was conducted over a 100 X 100 km area in France from mid-1985 to early 1987. The first International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Program field experiment was conducted in 1987 to develop and use relationships between current satellite measurements and hydrologic, climatic, and biophysical variables at the earth's surface and to validate these relationships with ground truth. This experiment also validated surface parameterization methods for simulation models that describe surface processes from the scale of vegetation leaves up to scales appropriate to satellite remote sensing.

Brutsaert, Wilfried

The role of gravity wave generated advection and diffusion in transport of tracers in the mesosphere

The roles of advection and turbulent diffusion in controlling tracer transport in the meridional plane of the mesosphere are compared using a version of the global primitive equation model for the middle atmosphere developed by Holton and Wehrbein (1980). The results of model sensitivity tests demonstrated that transport in the mesosphere for long-lived species with large-scale heights, such as H2O, CO, and NO(x), is primarily an advective process; on a global scale, small-scale turbulent diffusion produced by gravity wave breaking plays a secondary role. It is concluded that, for such tracers, the eddy diffusion coefficient used in one-dimensional chemical models of the mesosphere should be regarded as a parameterization of the transport by the meridional circulation, not as a parameterization of mixing by small-scale diffusion.

Holton, James R.

On the limitations of General Circulation Climate Models

General Circulation Models (GCMs) by definition calculate large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes and their associated feedbacks from first principles. This aspect of GCMs is widely believed to give them an advantage in simulating global scale climate changes as compared to simpler models which do not calculate the large-scale processes from first principles. However, it is pointed out that the meridional transports of heat simulated GCMs used in climate change experiments differ from observational analyses and from other GCMs by as much as a factor of two. It is also demonstrated that GCM simulations of the large scale transports of heat are sensitive to the (uncertain) subgrid scale parameterizations. This leads to the question whether current GCMs are in fact superior to simpler models for simulating temperature changes associated with global scale climate change.

Stone, Peter H.

Water balance model for Kings Creek

Particular attention is given to the spatial variability that affects the representation of water balance at the catchment scale in the context of macroscale water-balance modeling. Remotely sensed data are employed for parameterization, and the resulting model is developed so that subgrid spatial variability is preserved and therefore influences the grid-scale fluxes of the model. The model permits the quantitative evaluation of the surface-atmospheric interactions related to the large-scale hydrologic water balance.

Wood, Eric F.

Multi-center Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS)

This effort involves development of a calibrated, pulsed coherent CO2 Doppler lidar, followed by a carefully-planned and -executed program of multi-dimensional wind velocity and aerosol backscatter measurements from the NASA DC-8 research aircraft. The lidar, designated as the Multi-center Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS), will be applicable to two research areas. First, MACAWS will enable specialized measurements of atmospheric dynamical processes in the planetary boundary layer and free troposphere in geographic locations and over scales of motion not routinely or easily accessible to conventional sensors. The proposed observations will contribute fundamentally to a greater understanding of the role of the mesoscale, helping to improve predictive capabilities for mesoscale phenomena and to provide insights into improving model parameterizations of sub-grid scale processes within large-scale circulation models. As such, it has the potential to contribute uniquely to major, multi-institutional field programs planned for the mid 1990's. Second, MACAWS measurements can be used to reduce the degree of uncertainty in performance assessments and algorithm development for NASA's prospective Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS), which has no space-based instrument heritage. Ground-based lidar measurements alone are insufficient to address all of the key issues. To minimize costs, MACAWS is being developed cooperatively by the lidar remote sensing groups of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NOAA Wave Propagation Laboratory, and MSFC using existing lidar hardware and manpower resources. Several lidar components have already been exercised in previous airborne lidar programs (for example, MSFC Airborne Doppler Lidar System (ADLS) used in 1981,4 Severe Storms Wind Measurement Program; JPL Airborne Backscatter Lidar Experiment (ABLE) used in 1989,90 Global Backscatter Experiment Survey Missions). MSFC has been given responsibility for directing the overall program of instrument development and scientific measurement. The focus of current research and plans for next year are presented.

Rhothermel, Jeffry

Search for subgrid scale parameterization by projection pursuit regression

The dependence of subgrid-scale stresses on variables of the resolved field is studied using direct numerical simulations of isotropic turbulence, homogeneous shear flow, and channel flow. The projection pursuit algorithm, a promising new regression tool for high-dimensional data, is used to systematically search through a large collection of resolved variables, such as components of the strain rate, vorticity, velocity gradients at neighboring grid points, etc. For the case of isotropic turbulence, the search algorithm recovers the linear dependence on the rate of strain (which is necessary to transfer energy to subgrid scales) but is unable to determine any other more complex relationship. For shear flows, however, new systematic relations beyond eddy viscosity are found. For the homogeneous shear flow, the results suggest that products of the mean rotation rate tensor with both the fluctuating strain rate and fluctuating rotation rate tensors are important quantities in parameterizing the subgrid-scale stresses. A model incorporating these terms is proposed. When evaluated with direct numerical simulation data, this model significantly increases the correlation between the modeled and exact stresses, as compared with the Smagorinsky model. In the case of channel flow, the stresses are found to correlate with products of the fluctuating strain and rotation rate tensors. The mean rates of rotation or strain do not appear to be important in this case, and the model determined for homogeneous shear flow does not perform well when tested with channel flow data. Many questions remain about the physical mechanisms underlying these findings, about possible Reynolds number dependence, and, given the low level of correlations, about their impact on modeling. Nevertheless, demonstration of the existence of causal relations between sgs stresses and large-scale characteristics of turbulent shear flows, in addition to those necessary for energy transfer, provides important insight into the relation between scales in turbulent flows.

Meneveau, C.

Scaling, soil moisture and evapotranspiration in runoff models

The effects of small-scale heterogeneity in land surface characteristics on the large-scale fluxes of water and energy in the land-atmosphere system has become a central focus of many of the climatology research experiments. The acquisition of high resolution land surface data through remote sensing and intensive land-climatology field experiments (like HAPEX and FIFE) has provided data to investigate the interactions between microscale land-atmosphere interactions and macroscale models. One essential research question is how to account for the small scale heterogeneities and whether 'effective' parameters can be used in the macroscale models. To address this question of scaling, the probability distribution for evaporation is derived which illustrates the conditions for which scaling should work. A correction algorithm that may appropriate for the land parameterization of a GCM is derived using a 2nd order linearization scheme. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated.

Wood, Eric F.

A double-moment multiple-phase four-class bulk ice scheme, Part 1: Description

A detailed ice-phase bulk microphysical scheme has been developed for simulating the hydrometeor distributions of convective and stratiform precipitation in different large-scale environmental conditions. The proposed scheme involves 90 distinct microphysical processes, which predict the mixing ratios and the number concentrations of small ice crystals, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail, as well as the mixing ratios of liquid water on wet precipitation ice (snow, graupel, frozen drops). The number of adjustable coefficients has been significantly reduced in comparison with other bulk schemes. Additional improvements have been made to the parameterization in the following areas: (1) representing small ice crystals with nonzero terminal fall velocities and dispersive size distributions, (2) accurate and computationally efficient calculations of precipitation collection processes, (3) reformulating the collection equation to prevent unrealistically large accretion rates, (4) more realistic conversion by riming between different classes of precipitation ice, (5) preventing unrealistically large rates of raindrop freezing and freezing of liquid water on ice, (6) detailed treatment of various rime-splintering ice multiplication mechanisms, (7) a simple representation of the Hobbs-Rangno ice enhancement process, (8) aggregation of small ice crystals and snow, and (9) allowing explicit competition between cloud water condensation and ice deposition rates rather than using saturation adjustment techniques. For the purposes of conserving the higher moments of the particle distributions, preserving the spectral widths (or slopes) of the particle spectra is shown to be more important than strict conservation of particle number concentration when parameterizing changes in ice-particle number concentrations due to melting, vapor transfer processes (sublimation of dry ice, evaporation from wet ice), and conversion between different hydrometeor species. The microphysical scheme is incorporated into a nonhydrostatic cloud model in Part 2 of this study. The model performed well in simulating the radar and microphysical structures of a midlatitude-continental squall lines and a tropical-maritime squall system with minimal tuning of the parameterization, even though the vertical profiles of radar reflectivity differed substantially between these storms.

Ferrier, Brad Shoenberg

A Comparison between the TOPEX/POSEIDON Data and a Global Ocean General Circulation Model during 1992-1993

The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric sea level observation during 1992-1993 was used to validate the simulation made by a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM) forced by the daily wind stress and heat flux derived from the National Meteorological Center operational analysis. The OGCM is a version of the modular ocean model with a horizontal resolution of 2 deg longitude and 1 deg latitude and 22 levels in the vertical. The model simulation is compared to the observation at spatial scales of the order of 500 km and larger. Only the temporal variations are examined. The variability is composed primarily of the annual cycle and intraseasonal fluctuations (periods shorter than 100 days). The basic features of the annual cycle are simulated well by the model. Major discrepancies are found in the eastern tropical Pacific, as well as the eastern North Pacific and most of the interior of the North Atlantic. The culprit is suspected to be the inadequate heat forcing and mixing parameterizations of the model. Significant intraseasonal variability is found in the central North Pacific and the Southern Ocean. The simulation is highly correlated with the observation at periods from 20 to 100 days. The spatial scales are larger than 1000 km in many places. These variabilities are apparently the barotropic response of the ocean to wind forcing. The results of the study provide a basis for future assimilation of the data into the OGCM for improved description of the large-scale ocean variabilities.

Chao, Yi

Observations of Middle Atmosphere CO from the UARS ISAMS during the Early Northern Winter 1991/92

Structure and kinematics of carbon monoxide in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (10-0.03 hPa) are studied for the early northern winter 1991/92 using the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS) measurements. The study is aided by data from a 6-week parameterized-chemistry run of the Goddard Space Flight Center 3D Chemistry and Transport Model (CTM), initialized on 8 December 1991. Generally, CO mixing ratios increase with height due to the increasing source contribution from CO, photolysis. In the tropical upper stratosphere. however, a local maximum in CO mixing ratio occurs. A simple photochemical model is used to show that this feature results largely from methane oxidation. In the extratropics the photochemical lifetime of CO is long, and therefore its evolution is dictated by large-scale motion of air. evidenced by strong correlation with Ertel potential vorticity. This makes CO one of the few useful observable tracers at the stratopause level and above. Thus CO maps are used to study the synoptic evolution of the polar vortex in early January 1992. Modified Lagrangian mean mixing diagnostics are applied to ISAMS and CTM data to examine the strength of the mixing barrier at the polar vortex edge. It is demonstrated that planetary wave activity weakens the barrier. promoting vortex erosion. The vortex erosion first appears in the lower mesosphere and subsequently descends through the upper stratosphere. and is attributed to effects of planetary wave dissipation. Agreement between ISAMS and CTM is good in the horizontal distribution of CO throughout the examined period, but vertical CO gradients in the CTM weaken with time relative to the ISAMS observations.

Allen, D. R.

Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Processes over Warm Pool: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle as well as the primary heat source for the atmosphere, The vertical distribution of convective latent-heat release modulates the large-scale circulations of the tropics, Furthermore, changes in the moisture distribution at middle and upper levels of the troposphere can affect cloud distributions and cloud liquid water and ice contents. How the incoming solar and outgoing longwave radiation respond to these changes in clouds is a major factor in assessing climate change. Present large-scale weather and climate models simulate cloud processes only crudely, reducing confidence in their predictions on both global and regional scales. One of the most promising methods to test physical parameterizations used in General Circulation Models (GCMS) and climate models is to use field observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes, and allow for their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. The CRMs can reasonably well resolve the evolution, structure, and life cycles of individual clouds and cloud systems, The major objective of this paper is to investigate the latent heating, moisture and momenti,im budgets associated with several convective systems developed during the TOGA COARE IFA - westerly wind burst event (late December, 1992). The tool for this study is the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (CCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysical scheme, The model domain contains 256 x 256 grid points (using 2 km resolution) in the horizontal and 38 grid points (to a depth of 22 km depth) in the vertical, The 2D domain has 1024 grid points. The simulations are performed over a 7 day time period. We will examine (1) the precipitation processes (i.e., condensation/evaporation) and their interaction with warm pool; (2) the heating and moisture budgets in the convective and stratiform regions; (3) the cloud (upward-downward) mass fluxes in convective and stratiform regions; (4) characteristics of clouds (such as cloud size, updraft intensity and cloud lifetime) and the comparison of clouds with Radar observations. Differences and similarities in organization of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems. Preliminary results indicated that there is major differences between 2D and 3D simulated stratiform rainfall amount and convective updraft and downdraft mass fluxes.

Tao, W.- K.

Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for Understanding Preciptation Processes

The global hydrological cycle is central to climate system interactions and the key to understanding their behavior. Rainfall and its associated precipitation processes are a key link in the hydrologic cycle. Fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability can exert a large impact upon the structure of the upper ocean layer. In addition, approximately two-thirds of the global rain falls in the Tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for about three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Precipitation from convective cloud systems comprises a large portion of tropical heating and rainfall. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of convective latent-heat releases modulates large-scale tropical circulations (e.g., the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation), which, in turn, impacts midlatitude weather through teleconnection patterns such as those associated with El Nino. Shifts in these global circulations can result in prolonged periods of droughts and floods, thereby exerting a tremendous impact upon the biosphere and human habitation. And yet, monthly rainfall over the tropical oceans is still not known within a factor of two over large (5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude) areas. Hence, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, can provide a more accurate measurement of rainfall as well as estimate the four-dimensional structure of diabatic heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. In addition, this information can be used for global circulation and climate models for testing and improving their parameterizations.

Tao, Wei-Kuo

Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Processes Over Warm Pool: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle as well as the primary heat source for the atmosphere. The vertical distribution of convective latent-heat release modulates the large-scale circulations of the topics. Furthermore, changes in the moisture distribution at middle and upper levels of the troposphere can affect cloud distributions and cloud liquid water and ice contents. How the incoming solar and outgoing longwave radiation respond to these changes in clouds is a major factor in assessing climate change. Present large-scale weather and climate model simulate processes only crudely, reducing confidence in their predictions on both global and regional scales. One of the most promising methods to test physical parameterizations used in General Circulation Models (GCMs) and climate models is to use field observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes, and allow for their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. The CRMs can reasonably well resolve the evolution, structure, and life cycles of individual clouds and clouds systems. The major objective of this paper is to investigate the latent heating, moisture and momentum budgets associated with several convective systems developed during the TOGA COARE IFA - westerly wind burst event (late December, 1992). The tool for this study is the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysics scheme.

Tao, W.-K.