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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1979

The 25 kW power module evolution study. Part 3: Conceptual designs for power module evolutions. Volume 3: Cost estimates

Cost data generated for the evolutionary power module concepts selected are reported. The initial acquisition costs (design, development, and protoflight unit test costs) were defined and modeled for the baseline 25 kW power module configurations. By building a parametric model of this initial building block, the cost of the 50 kW and the 100 kW power modules were derived by defining only their configuration and programmatic differences from the 25 kW baseline module. Variations in cost for the quantities needed to fulfill the mission scenarios were derived by applying appropriate learning curves.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2019

Cost Breakeven Analysis of Lunar ISRU for Human Lunar Surface Architectures

The return of humans to the lunar surface encompasses a range of possible architectures from brief Apollo-like sorties to long-term sustainment of human presence. Any architecture in this span requires propellant for the crew’s ascent from the lunar surface, as well as consumables to support their presence on the Moon. Oxygen and hydrogen are candidates for the propellant for the ascent vehicle due to their high specific impulse and potential for production from lunar resources and also constitute important consumables for the crew. Thus, the production of oxygen and/or hydrogen from lunar resources could significantly reduce the mass that must be sent from Earth to enable future human lunar missions. To assess the merits of using lunar resources, the costs associated with developing, producing, launching, operating, and maintaining those systems must be considered relative to the costs of delivering the needed resources from Earth. The demand for those resources depends upon the nature of the lunar mission, while the costs of both Earth-derived and lunar-derived resources depend on the performance requirements and technology capabilities associated with each approach. Thus, determining which approach is more cost efficient requires modeling the performance and cost of the associated systems as well as the range of possible architectures over which such a determination might apply. This research proposes a model that parametrically captures the factors influencing the relevant costs of providing propellant and crew consumables on the lunar surface from Earth and from the Moon. Two ISRU system models are assessed relative to propellant delivery from Earth. In this model, lunar ISRU breaks even with propellant delivery from Earth at high propellant demands and mission durations with multi-year ISRU system lifetimes; however, the costs of developing the necessary technologies to support a highly reliable and autonomous lunar ISRU system were not included.

ISRU↗

NASA NTRS2002

Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

Hammond, Walter E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Modeling Personnel Turnover in the Parametric Organization

A primary issue in organizing a new parametric cost analysis function is to determine the skill mix and number of personnel required. The skill mix can be obtained by a functional decomposition of the tasks required within the organization and a matrixed correlation with educational or experience backgrounds. The number of personnel is a function of the skills required to cover all tasks, personnel skill background and cross training, the intensity of the workload for each task, migration through various tasks by personnel along a career path, personnel hiring limitations imposed by management and the applicant marketplace, personnel training limitations imposed by management and personnel capability, and the rate at which personnel leave the organization for whatever reason. Faced with the task of relating all of these organizational facets in order to grow a parametric cost analysis (PCA) organization from scratch, it was decided that a dynamic model was required in order to account for the obvious dynamics of the forming organization. The challenge was to create such a simple model which would be credible during all phases of organizational development. The model development process was broken down into the activities of determining the tasks required for PCA, determining the skills required for each PCA task, determining the skills available in the applicant marketplace, determining the structure of the dynamic model, implementing the dynamic model, and testing the dynamic model.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

NASA NTRS2010

COMPASS Final Report: Low Cost Robotic Lunar Lander

The COllaborative Modeling for the Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team designed a robotic lunar Lander to deliver an unspecified payload (greater than zero) to the lunar surface for the lowest cost in this 2006 design study. The purpose of the low cost lunar lander design was to investigate how much payload can an inexpensive chemical or Electric Propulsion (EP) system deliver to the Moon s surface. The spacecraft designed as the baseline out of this study was a solar powered robotic lander, launched on a Minotaur V launch vehicle on a direct injection trajectory to the lunar surface. A Star 27 solid rocket motor does lunar capture and performs 88 percent of the descent burn. The Robotic Lunar Lander soft-lands using a hydrazine propulsion system to perform the last 10% of the landing maneuver, leaving the descent at a near zero, but not exactly zero, terminal velocity. This low-cost robotic lander delivers 10 kg of science payload instruments to the lunar surface.

McGuire, Melissa L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Process-Based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

Singh, Brijendra↗

DOE OSTI2026

Retrofit Energy Analysis and Central Thermal modeling (REACT) v1.0

REACT is a website designed to simplify the analysis and decision-making process for retrofitting existing central plant heating and cooling systems with advanced heat pump technologies. The tool evaluates the technical and economic viability of replacing traditional boilers with various options including water-to-water or air-to-water heat pumps, which can provide efficient and lower-cost heating and cooling. It allows users to compare current central plant configurations with retrofit scenarios, assessing energy consumption, life-cycle costs, and environmental impact. Retrofitting traditional boiler and chiller systems with water-to-water or air-to-water heat pumps can significantly reduce energy consumption and lower lifecycle costs. The REACT provides: User-Friendly Tools: A user friendly web interface for quick, intuitive analysis accessible to non-experts. Advanced Modeling: A Python-powered engine for detailed parametric studies, optimization, and research applications. Comprehensive Analysis: Lifecycle cost evaluation, energy consumption modeling, and environmental impact assessment. Visual Insights: A variety of plots to visualize system performance and design trade-offs. The engine for the website (REACT) bases on several Python libraries, and the website will be hosted on an ETA server.

Kim, Donghun [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗

NASA NTRS2026

Parametric-Based Heat Rejection Trade Study for Lunar and Martian Surface Operations

Establishing and maintaining a sustained presence on the lunar and/or Martian surfaces will require a diverse portfolio of surface elements (e.g., habitation, mobility, power generation, etc.). Many of these systems generate excess heat that must be rejected across a wide range of magnitudes, temperatures, and duty cycles and under variable environmental conditions. To identify the most promising heat rejection approaches for this diverse portfolio, a heat rejection trade study was conducted to evaluate the performance of different technology approaches across a spectrum of surface environments and heat-load requirements. The trade study consisted of three stages: (1) development of a parametric-based modeling framework, (2) creation of a database of heat rejection technologies, surface elements, and environmental conditions for the Moon and Mars, and (3) execution of a quantitative analysis of various heat rejection technologies across different operating conditions and surface elements. The modeling framework is developed in Python and Excel to prioritize small model size and hence low computational cost to enable large parametric sweeps while avoiding the reliance on proprietary software. Individual heat rejection processes are represented as simple Excel models, and a centralized Python script interfaces with the models to coordinate the parametric study. These simple sizing models were developed to take heat load requirements and environmental parameters as inputs and compute mass, power, and volume as outputs. Rather than assess each heat rejection technology separately for each surface element, a unified parametric space was developed to evaluate all technologies across all elements. This parametric space includes factors related to heat load (e.g., magnitude or temperature) and environment (e.g., surface temperature, sky temperature, solar flux). This effort generated a database containing information on over 60 heat rejection technologies and 30 surface elements. For each surface element, the expected heat rejection requirements were documented and analyzed to determine the most common needs shared across all elements. Environmental conditions at various lunar and Martian latitudes were also established for worst-case hot and worst-case cold scenarios. High-fidelity heat rejection models are currently under development. Preliminary trades between heat rejection technologies including radiators, venting technologies, convective coolers, and more have been conducted to identify promising options. This presentation will summarize the preliminary trade results and provide an overview and discussion of the expected heat loads and thermal environments for sustained surface operations on the Moon and Mars.

Heat Rejection↗

NASA NTRS1979

Application of parametric weight and cost estimating relationships to future transport aircraft

A model comprised of system level weight and cost estimating relationships for transport aircraft is presented. In order to determine the production cost of future aircraft its weight is first estimated based on performance parameters, and then the cost is estimated as a function of weight. For initial evaluation CERs were applied to actual system weights of six aircraft (3 military and 3 commercial) with mean empty weights ranging from 30,000 to 300,000 lb. The resulting cost estimates were compared with actual costs. The average absolute error was only 4.3%. Then the model was applied to five aircraft still in the design phase (Boeing 757, 767 and 777, and BAC HS146-100 and HS146-200). While the estimates for the 757 and 767 are within 2 to 3 percent of their assumed break-even costs, it is recognized that these are very sensitive to the validity of the estimated weights, inflation factor, the amount assumed for nonrecurring costs, etc., and it is suggested that the model may be used in conjunction with other information such as RDT&E cost estimates and market forecasts. The model will help NASA evaluate new technologies and production costs of future aircraft.

Beltramo, M. N.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Application of a Momentum Source Model to the RAH-66 Comanche FANTAIL

A Momentum Source Model has been revised and implemented in the flow solver OVERFLOW-D. In this approach, the fan forces are evaluated from two-dimensional airfoil tables as a function of local Mach number and angle-of-attack and applied as source terms in the discretized Navier-Stokes equations. The model revisions include a new model for forces in the tip region and axial distribution of the source terms. The model revisions improve the results significantly. The Momentum Source Model agrees well with a discrete blade model for all computed collective pitch angles. The two models agree well with experimental data for thrust vs. torque. The Momentum Source Model is a good complement to Discrete Blade Models for ducted fan computations. The lower computational and labor costs make parametric studies, optimization studies and interactional aerodynamics studies feasible for cases beyond what is practical with a Discrete Blade Model today.

Nygaard, Tor A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Improving and Expanding NASA Software Cost Estimation Methods

Estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop better models and reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods for cost estimation, there is very little focus on the use of cost models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize the results of our research in developing an analogy method for estimating NASA spacecraft flight software using spectral clustering on system characteristics (symbolic nonnumerical data) and evaluate its performance by comparing it to a number of the most commonly used estimation methods. The strengths and weaknesses of each method based on their performance are also discussed. The paper concludes with an overview of the analogy estimation tool (ASCoT) developed for use within NASA that implements the recommended analogy algorithm.

Hihn, Jairus↗

NASA NTRS1991

Modeling personnel turnover in the parametric organization

A model is developed for simulating the dynamics of a newly formed organization, credible during all phases of organizational development. The model development process is broken down into the activities of determining the tasks required for parametric cost analysis (PCA), determining the skills required for each PCA task, determining the skills available in the applicant marketplace, determining the structure of the model, implementing the model, and testing it. The model, parameterized by the likelihood of job function transition, has demonstrated by the capability to represent the transition of personnel across functional boundaries within a parametric organization using a linear dynamical system, and the ability to predict required staffing profiles to meet functional needs at the desired time. The model can be extended by revisions of the state and transition structure to provide refinements in functional definition for the parametric and extended organization.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Analysis of Complexity Generators for Cost Estimation

Predicting the cost of cutting edge new technologies involved with spacecraft hardware can be quite complicated. A new feature of the NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), called the Complexity Generator, is being developed to model the complexity factors that drive the cost of space hardware. This parametric approach is also designed to account for the differences in cost, based on factors that are unique to each system and subsystem. The cost driver categories included in this model are weight, inheritance from previous missions, technical complexity, and management factors. This paper explains the Complexity Generator framework, the statistical methods used to select the best model within this framework, and the procedures used to find the region of predictability and the prediction intervals for the cost of a mission.

Rowell, Ginger Holmes↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of success probability/cost trades for small landers in a Mars network

The premise to be tested in this analysis is whether cost economics may accrue by delivering more landers designed to lower reliability of operation (compared to fewer landers of higher reliability) to obtain a desired probability of achieving a given number of lander successes. Generally, the application in mind is a network of penetrators, although the analysis may apply as well to other small lander concepts or even to simple rovers. The method of analysis is based on a probabilistic model of lander success and a related probabilistic model of project cost including the lander, spacecraft carrier, and integration, but not launch or operations costs. Quantitative results are obtained in a normalized and parametric fashion. Sensitivity to the assumed model parameters is also examined.

Friedlander, Alan L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spatially Accelerated Winding Numbers for Curved Geometry

The generalized winding number (GWN) is a scalar field that supports robust containment queries on curved geometry, including non-watertight, overlapping, and nested boundary representations. While queries can be easily parallelized over samples, direct evaluation on parametric curves and surfaces remains costly for large and complex models. Fast, state-of-the-art GWN approaches leverage a spatial index to approximate the GWN, typically coupled with a Taylor expansion which approximates the GWN contribution for far clusters of geometric primitives. However, such methods operate only on discrete inputs such as triangle meshes and point clouds, and would introduce containment errors near boundaries if applied to curved input. We extend support for fast GWN evaluation over arbitrary collections of NURBS curves in 2D and trimmed NURBS patches in 3D via a Bounding Volume Hierarchy that stores efficiently precomputed moment data in the hierarchy nodes. When querying the hierarchy, approximations for far clusters are used alongside direct evaluation for nearby NURBS primitives, achieving sub-linear complexity while preserving the geometric features in the vicinity of the query point. Central to our performance improvements is an adaptive subdivision strategy for NURBS primitives during a preprocessing phase, creating better spatial partitions while retaining the same accuracy for containment decisions as a direct evaluation. We demonstrate the performance and accuracy of our approach across a large collection of 2D and 3D datasets.

Computer science↗

NASA NTRS1987

Preliminary design, analysis, and costing of a dynamic scale model of the NASA space station

The difficulty of testing the next generation of large flexible space structures on the ground places an emphasis on other means for validating predicted on-orbit dynamic behavior. Scale model technology represents one way of verifying analytical predictions with ground test data. This study investigates the preliminary design, scaling and cost trades for a Space Station dynamic scale model. The scaling of nonlinear joint behavior is studied from theoretical and practical points of view. Suspension system interaction trades are conducted for the ISS Dual Keel Configuration and Build-Up Stages suspended in the proposed NASA/LaRC Large Spacecraft Laboratory. Key issues addressed are scaling laws, replication vs. simulation of components, manufacturing, suspension interactions, joint behavior, damping, articulation capability, and cost. These issues are the subject of parametric trades versus the scale model factor. The results of these detailed analyses are used to recommend scale factors for four different scale model options, each with varying degrees of replication. Potential problems in constructing and testing the scale model are identified, and recommendations for further study are outlined.

Gronet, M. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

COCOMO2: A Coarse-Grained Model for Interacting Folded and Disordered Proteins

Biomolecular interactions are essential in many biological processes, including complex formation and phase separation processes. Coarse-grained computational models are especially valuable for studying such processes via simulation. Here, we present COCOMO2, an updated residue-based coarse-grained model that extends its applicability from intrinsically disordered peptides to folded proteins. This is accomplished with the introduction of a surface exposure scaling factor, which adjusts interaction strengths based on solvent accessibility, to enable the more realistic modeling of interactions involving folded domains without additional computational costs. COCOMO2 was parametrized directly with solubility and phase separation data to improve its performance on predicting concentration-dependent phase separation for a broader range of biomolecular systems compared to the original version. COCOMO2 enables new applications including the study of condensates that involve IDPs together with folded domains and the study of complex assembly processes. COCOMO2 also provides an expanded foundation for the development of multiscale approaches for modeling biomolecular interactions that span from residue-level to atomistic resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Correction to “COCOMO2: A Coarse-Grained Model for Interacting Folded and Disordered Proteins”

Molecular interactions↗