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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A Probabilistic Model-Based Diagnostic Framework for Nuclear Engineering Systems

A fault diagnostic framework was investigated in this study for applications in thermal–hydraulic systems of nuclear power plants. The proposed framework consists of quantitative model-based diagnosis, statistical change detection and probabilistic reasoning. The use of physics-based diagnostic models provides high detection sensitivity and allows noise and measurement uncertainty to be incorporated robustly. Performance-related parametric models for each component are constructed based on first principles. Numerical model residuals are generated using the concept of analytical redundancy. Statistical change detection methods are employed to detect non-zero residuals in the presence of uncertainty. The diagnosis task is performed using Bayesian inference to detect and localize possible faults. Application to a single-phase heat exchanger for demonstration showed that the proposed probabilistic framework can provide improved results in comparison with traditional approaches while remaining less sensitive to false alarms in the presence of measurement and modeling uncertainty.

Bayesian network↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic flow stress of pure polycrystalline aluminum: Pressure-shear plate impact experiments and extension of dislocation-based modeling to large strains

The dynamic thermo-mechanical behavior of pure aluminum has attracted renewed interest lately due to experimental observations of an anomalous increase in Hugoniot Elastic Limit (HEL) at incipient plasticity and elevated temperatures in polycrystalline pure metals. In context of current dislocation-mediated plasticity models for metals, this increase in dynamic strength is indicative of a transition in the rate controlling mechanism for dislocation glide from being thermally assisted to phonon-drag restricted due to increase in phonon viscosity at elevated temperatures. Though these studies have helped to shed light on these important mechanisms operative in FCC metals at incipient plasticity, the extent to which they contribute to flow stress, particularly at larger strains, remains unclear. Here, we address these questions through a combined experimental and modeling effort focused on investigating the evolution of dynamic flow stress in polycrystalline aluminum using experimental data gathered from a series of combined pressure-and-shear plate impact (PSPI) experiments designed to reveal the flow stress of pure aluminum at strain rates ~ 10 5 /s, plastic strains of up to 40% and temperatures ranging from room to 866 K. In all cases, the flow stress of aluminum, as inferred from the measured transverse particle velocity histories at the free surface of an elastic tungsten carbide target plate, reveals saturation with increasing plastic strains at stress levels that decrease with increasing test temperatures. Numerical simulations are performed to correlate the experimentally observed temperature and strain rate dependence of flow stress at small and large plastic strains using the Austin-McDowell dislocation-mediated plasticity model parametrized to normal plate impact experiments conducted in an earlier study by Zaretsky and Kanel (2012). Extensions to the model are made to better represent dynamic behavior of pure aluminum at larger plastic strains as observed in elevated temperature split Hopkinson Pressure bar (SPHB) experiments of Samanta (1971) and Lindholm and Yeakly (1965), and the combined pressure-and-shear plate-impact experiments conducted in the present study. The main theoretical extension to the Austin-McDowell model made in this paper is the introduction of a new rate- and temperature- dependent dynamic recovery function, which can potentially allow for an effective reduction in the rate of accumulation of dislocations at large plastic strains. The numerical predictions of the revised and re-calibrated plasticity model are brought into agreement with the experimental observations, correlating sufficiently well with dynamic yield stress at incipient plasticity and the flow stress levels at larger plastic strains, plastic strain rates in the range 10 3 – 10 6 /s, and elevated temperatures up to near melt. The model, in concert with the experimental measurements, suggests that at incipient plasticity the rate governing mechanism for plastic flow is phonon-drag restricted dislocation glide, whereas, at higher magnitudes of plastic strain, it transitions to stress-assisted thermally activated glide. The transition between these two rate governing mechanisms is controlled by the evolution of dislocations throughout the deformation process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

An extended moments model of quantum efficiency for metals and semiconductors

The complexity of photocathode designs and detector materials, and the need to model their performance for short pulse durations, response to high frequency photons, presence of coatings and/or thinness of the absorptive layer, necessitates modifications to three-step and moments models of photoemission that are used in simulation codes. Here, methods to include input from computationally intensive approaches, such as density functional theory to model optical properties and transfer matrix approaches to treat emission from the surface or transport past coatings, by means of parametric models are demonstrated. First, a technique to accurately represent optical behavior so as to model reflectivity and penetration depth is given. Second, modifications to bulk models arising from the usage of thin film architectures, and a means to rapidly calculate them, is provided. Third, a parameterization to model the impact of wells associated with coatings and surface layers on the transmission probably is given. In all cases, the methods are computationally efficient and designed to allow for including input from numerically intensive approaches that would otherwise be unavailable for simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

A general predictive methodology for fuel-mixture properties up to supercritical conditions

A predictive thermodynamic model is utilized for the calculation of fuel properties of oxymethylene dimethyl ethers (OME 3–4 ), surrogates for gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel, as well as alcohol blends with gasoline and diesel. The alcohols used for these blends are methanol, ethanol, propanol, butanol and pentanol; their mixing ratio ranges from 10 to 50% by volume. The model is based on the Perturbed-Chain Statistical Association Fluid Theory (PC-SAFT) equation of state (EoS) and Vapor Liquid Equilibrium (VLE) calculations at constant temperature, density and composition. The model includes the association term, with the assumption of two association sites (2B scheme), to enable the modeling of alcohols. The pure-component parameters are estimated based on the Group Contribution (GC) method of various sources, as well as a parametrization model specifically designed for the case of OME 3–4 . The results of the computational model for the density, vapor pressure and distillation curves at various conditions, including high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT), are compared to experimental and computational data available in the literature. In the cases where no measurements are available for the surrogates, experimental data for the corresponding target fuel are used, taking into consideration the inherent deviation in properties between real and surrogate fuel. Overall, the results are in good agreement with the data from the literature, with the average deviation not exceeding 12% for temperature (Kelvin) on the distillation curves, 10% for density and 46% for vapor pressure and the general trend being captured successfully. The use of different pure component parameter estimation techniques can further improve the prediction quality in the cases of OME3–4 and the aviation fuel surrogate, especially for the vapor pressure, leading to an average deviation lower than 18%. These results demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the model, which extend to a wide range of fuel types and pressure/temperature conditions. Through this investigation, the present work aims to establish the limits of applicability of this thermodynamic property prediction methodology.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

When physics-informed data analytics outperforms black-box machine learning: A case study in thickness control for additive manufacturing

Aerosol jet printing (AJP) has emerged as a promising noncontact additive manufacturing method for high-resolution printing for a wide range of material systems. A key challenge limiting the broader adoption of AJP in the material science community is the lack of methods to precisely control thickness. Herein, we develop a model-based design of experiment (MBDoE) framework that integrates physics-informed models, nonlinear regression, and information criteria to postulate, select and calibrate the best model to describe and optimize the AJP manufacturing process. Starting with already available data from system commissioning (e.g., prior single variable sensitivity analysis), four candidate physics-informed models are postulated and trained. MBDoE identifies a single additional optimal experiment to validate these predictive models with quantified uncertainties, which are then used to determine the best experimental conditions to control printed film thickness. As a comparative benchmark, the analysis is repeated using the same dataset with nonparametric Gaussian process regression (GPR) model that does not incorporate physical information. Using MBDoE principles, we find that only five experiments are necessary to calibrate the nonlinear physics-informed parametric model, and with said limited data, this model outperforms the black-box machine learning GPR model. This key result underscores an emerging trend in the data science community: incorporating physical information into predictive models often drastically reduces the data requirements. Leveraging MBDoE further increased the data efficiency. By design, the proposed data science framework is general in nature and can be easily extended to other experimental and additive manufacturing systems beyond AJP.

Aerosol jet printing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty-quantified phenomenological optical potentials for single-nucleon scattering

Optical-model potentials (OMPs) continue to play a key role in nuclear reaction calculations. However, the uncertainty of phenomenological OMPs in widespread use—inherent to any parametric model trained on data—has not been fully characterized, and its impact on downstream users of OMPs remains unclear. Here we assign well-calibrated uncertainties for two representative global OMPs, those of Koning-Delaroche and Chapel Hill '89, using Markov-chain Monte Carlo for parameter inference. By comparing the canonical versions of these OMPs against the experimental data originally used to constrain them, we show how a lack of outlier rejection and a systematic underestimation of experimental uncertainties contributes to bias of, and overconfidence in, best-fit parameter values. Our updated, uncertainty-quantified versions of these OMPs address these issues and yield complete covariance information for potential parameters. Scattering predictions generated from our ensembles show improved performance both against the original training corpora of experimental data and against a new “test” corpus comprising many of the experimental single-nucleon scattering data collected over the last twenty years. Finally, we apply our uncertainty-quantified OMPs to two case studies of application-relevant cross sections. We conclude that, for many common applications of OMPs, including OMP uncertainty should become standard practice. Furthermore, to facilitate their immediate use, digital versions of our updated OMPs and related tools for forward uncertainty propagation are included as Supplemental Material.

150 ≤ A ≤ 189↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non-Blind Deblurring for Fluorescence: A Deformable Latent Space Approach with Kernel Parameterization

We report N\non-blind deblurring (NBD) is a modeling method of the image deblurring problem in computer vision, where the blurring kernel is known or can be externally estimated. In this paper, we attempt to solve a parametric NBD problem, inspired by the simultaneous acquisition of ptychography and fluorescent imaging (FI). Ptychography is an imaging method that favors larger probes, i.e. convolutional kernels, while FI relies on a small probe for high resolution. Also, the kernel can be solved during ptychographic reconstruction. With Ptycho-FI using the same larger kernel, we can perform NBD on the blurred fluorescent images to achieve high-resolution FI, and thus speed up the experiments. To this end, we design a deep latent space deformation network that is directly parameterized by the kernel. The network consists of three components: encoder, deformer, and decoder, where the deformer is specifically meant to rectify the latent space representations of blurred images to a standard latent space, regardless of the kernel. The deformation network is trained with a two-stage training scheme. We conduct extensive experiments to confirm that our parametric model can adapt to drastically different blurring kernels and perform robust deblurring.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the Effect of Sample Geometry on Temperature Distribution during Optical Floating Zone Crystal Growth in Vacuum Environment through Heat Transfer Modeling

Optical floating zone furnaces (OFZ) have had a transformative impact on fundamental science due to their ability to rapidly produce large single crystals of a wide variety of complex materials. However, a quantitative understanding of the OFZ growth environment is generally lacking due to the difficulty of measuring the local sample temperatures during OFZ growth, as well as to the general lack of information about the temperature-dependent physical parameters needed to model heat transfer. To overcome these challenges, we apply a physics-based heat transfer model, parametrized by measurements from synchrotron experiments and a machine-learning (ML) algorithm, to simulate the temperature distributions of samples heated in an OFZ furnace in a vacuum environment. This model is used to quantitatively understand how the sample maximum temperature and temperature gradient (key parameters that influence the success of crystal growth) are affected by the rod size, rod shape, and heat-zone position on the rod. The results of this study can be applied to make informed decisions on how crystal growth parameters can be tuned to modify temperature profiles and to optimize crystal growth outcomes even when data on internal sample temperature profiles (e.g., those obtained through in situ synchrotron experiments) are not accessible.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Coverage Self-Consistent Microkinetic Model for Vapor-Phase Formic Acid Decomposition over Pd/C Catalysts

An iterative approach utilizing density functional theory (DFT, PW91-GGA)-informed mean-field microkinetic models and reaction kinetics experiments is used to determine the reaction mechanism and the active site for formic acid (HCOOH, FA) decomposition over a Pd/C catalyst. Models parametrized using DFT energetics on clean Pd(100) and Pd(111) required large corrections to the DFT energetics for capturing our experimental data. Further, both Pd(111) and Pd(100) models predicted a high coverage of adsorbed CO (CO*), inconsistent with the assumption of a clean surface at which the rate parameters for these models were calculated. To better represent the active site under reaction conditions and explicitly account for the presence of CO*, subsequent microkinetic models were formulated using DFT energetics that were calculated on partially (5/9 ML) CO*-covered Pd (111) and (100) facets. Upon parameter adjustment, the resultant 5/9 ML CO*-covered Pd(100) model, although consistent in terms of CO* coverage, was unable to capture the dehydration path measured in the experiments and was, therefore, deemed not to offer an accurate representation of the active site for FA decomposition over Pd/C. In contrast, a partially CO*-covered Pd(111) model was better at representing the catalytic active site, as in addition to being consistent in terms of CO* coverages, it required small adjustments of the DFT parameters to accurately capture the experimental data set (both dehydrogenation and dehydration). Our results suggest that the reaction occurs via the spectroscopically elusive carboxyl (COOH*) intermediate and that spectator CO*-assisted decomposition pathways play an important role under typical experimental conditions. In addition, our study highlights the importance of striving for coverage self-consistent microkinetic models and for including spectator-assisted mechanisms in order to develop an improved picture of the active site under reaction conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Modeling of a High Capacity Cryogenic System for Control Optimization

The Cryogenic Moderator System (CMS) is responsible for maintaining a steady flow of cold neutrons for numerous physics experiments at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Sudden losses in beam power, known as beam trips, cause a major disturbance to the CMS due to large step changes in cooling demands. Ongoing efforts on upgrading the neutron beam power from 1.4 to 2.0MW are expected to generate larger transients that can further strain the CMS subsystems if they are not properly controlled. To manage such disturbances, four flow valves and one electric heater are adjusted by five decentralized proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers. However, the original PID gains were calibrated empirically based only on tracking performance and not based on disturbance rejection. To address this issue without compromising current CMS operations, a control-oriented model was developed to recalibrate the PID controllers offline. The zero-dimensional (0-D) model was based on simple physics-based principles and data-driven system identification techniques. The CMS was broken into several subsystems for analysis, each of which corresponds to a parametric model tied to the thermodynamic states of the working fluid. The model parameters were identified using the nonlinear least squares method where the residuals were calculated from available sensor data. Simulation results show that the proposed model can capture the dynamics of the CMS at steady state and during beam trips.

Maldonado Puente, Bryan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Machine Learning Wall Modeling Approaches for Large Eddy Simulation of Gas Turbine Film Cooling Flows: An a Priori Study

Here, in this work, a priori analysis of machine learning (ML) strategies is carried out with the goal of data-driven wall modeling for large eddy simulation (LES) of gas turbine film cooling flows. High-fidelity flow datasets are extracted from wall-resolved LES (WRLES) of flow over a flat plate interacting with the coolant flow supplied by a single row of 7-7-7 shaped cooling holes inclined at 30 degrees with the flat plate at different blowing ratios (BR). The WRLES are performed using the high-order Nek5000 spectral element computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. Light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) is employed as the ML algorithm for the data-driven wall model. Parametric tests are conducted to systematically assess the influence of a wide range of input flow features (velocity components, velocity gradients, pressure gradients, and fluid properties) on the accuracy of ML wall model with respect to prediction of wall shear stress. In addition, the use of spatial stencil and time delay is also explored within the ML wall modeling framework. It is shown that features associated with gradients of the streamwise and spanwise velocity components have a major impact on the prediction fidelity of wall model, while the effect of gradients of wall-normal velocity component is found to be negligible. Moreover, adding flow feature information from an x-y-z spatial stencil significantly improves the ML model accuracy and generalizability compared to just using local flow features from the matching location. Overall, highest prediction accuracy is achieved when both spatial stencil and time delay features are incorporated within the data-driven wall modeling paradigm.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture. Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactions crucial for predicting nutrient loading under future climate scenarios. This foundational work is aimed at setting the stage for the future development of an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model would incorporate SWAT outputs to dynamically simulate decision-making processes.

Bunyon, Enock↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel Bayesian approach for decomposing the radio emission of quasars: I. Modelling the radio excess in red quasars

ABSTRACT Studies show that both radio jets from the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and the star formation (SF) activity in quasar host galaxies contribute to the quasar radio emission; yet their relative contributions across the population remain unclear. Here, we present an improved parametric model that allows us to statistically separate the SF and AGN components in observed quasar radio flux density distributions, and investigate how their relative contributions evolve with AGN bolometric luminosity ($L_\mathrm{bol}$) and redshift (z) using a fully Bayesian method. Based on the newest data from LOw-Frequency ARray Two-metre Sky Survey data release 2, our model gives robust fitting results out to $z\sim 4$, showing a quasar host galaxy SF rate (SFR) evolution that increases with bolometric luminosity and with redshift out to $z\sim 4$. This differs from the global cosmic SFR density, perhaps due to the importance of galaxy mergers. The prevalence of radio AGN emissions increases with quasar luminosity, but has little dependence on redshift. Furthermore, our new methodology and large sample size allow us to subdivide our data set to investigate the role of other parameters. Specifically, in this paper, we explore quasar colour and demonstrate that the radio excess in red quasars is due to an enhancement in AGN-related emission, since the host galaxy SF contribution to the total radio emission is independent of quasar colour. We also find evidence that this radio enhancement occurs mostly in quasars with weak or intermediate radio power.

Yue, B. -H (ORCID:0009000989352929)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Phase transition phenomenology with nonparametric representations of the neutron star equation of state

Astrophysical observations of neutron stars probe the structure of dense nuclear matter and have the potential to reveal phase transitions at high densities. Most recent analyses are based on parametrized models of the equation of state with a finite number of parameters and occasionally include extra parameters intended to capture phase-transition phenomenology. However, such models restrict the types of behavior allowed and may not match the true equation of state. We introduce a complementary approach that extracts phase transitions directly from the equation of state without relying on, and thus being restricted by, an underlying parametrization. We then constrain the presence of phase transitions in neutron stars with astrophysical data. Current pulsar mass, tidal deformability, and mass-radius measurements disfavor only the strongest of possible phase transitions (latent energy per particle ≳ 100 MeV). Weaker phase transitions are consistent with observations. Here we further investigate the prospects for measuring phase transitions with future gravitational-wave observations and find that catalogs of O (100) events will (at best) yield Bayes factors of ~ 10 : 1 in favor of phase transitions even when the true equation of state contains very strong phase transitions. Our results reinforce the idea that neutron star observations will primarily constrain trends in macroscopic properties rather than detailed microscopic behavior. Fine-tuned equation of state models will likely remain unconstrained in the near future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pulsed Thermal Tomography Nondestructive Examination of Additively Manufactured Reactor Materials and Components (Final Technical Report)

Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a promising method for cost-efficient fabrication of complex shape structures for applications in harsh environment, such as in a nuclear reactor. However, internal defects (pores) occur in high-strength AM alloys, which are manufactured with Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) AM method. Pulsed Infrared Thermography (PIT) is an efficient nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method to examine actual structures, because this method offers one-sided non-contact measurements, and fast processing of large sample areas. However, imaging of material defects, particularly defects with sizes at microscopic level, is challenging. In this report, we benchmark the performance of several Unsupervised Learning (UL) algorithms designed to enhance imaging of microscopic defects in metals with PIT. UL aims to learn the latent principal patterns (dictionaries) in PIT data to detect defects with minimal human supervision. Performance of Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Sparse Coding (SC), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was compared using F-score, UL model training time and defects reconstruction time. We obtained the average F-score of 0.75, and a highest F-score of 0.89 for the EFA algorithm. Overall, EFA outperforms other UL algorithms considered in this study. In another approach, we investigate Thermal Tomography (TT), which is a computational method for reconstruction of depth profile of internal material defects from PIT nondestructive evaluation (NDE). TT algorithm obtains depth reconstructions of thermal effusivity, which has been shown to provide visualization of subsurface internals defects in metals. In many applications, one needs to determine the defect shape and orientation from reconstructed effusivity images. Interpretation of TT images is non-trivial because of blurring, which increases with depth due to heat diffusion-based nature of image formation. We have developed a deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify size and orientation of subsurface material defects in TT images. CNN was trained with TT images produced with computer simulations of 2D metallic structures (thin plates) containing elliptical subsurface voids. Performance of CNN was investigated using test TT images developed with computer simulations of plates containing elliptical defects, and defects with shape imported from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images. CNN demonstrated the ability to classify radii and angular orientation of elliptical defects in previously unseen test TT images. We have also demonstrated that CNN trained on TT images of elliptical defects is capable of classifying shape and orientation of irregular defects. Training the CNN on irregular defect shapes instead of on elliptical shapes would make the resulting classifications more descriptive of actual defect shapes. However, this requires a much higher volume of SEM images of material defects, which are difficult to obtain because of random occurrence of defects in LPBF. To address this challenge, we developed a generative adversarial network (GAN) to augment the existing dataset of SEM defect images. The GAN model is demonstrated to create novel yet realistic defect shapes that can be used as input for simulated PTT images to train CNN. We also investigate several approaches based on Gaussian Random Circle and Bezier Curves for constructing parametric models of irregular-shape defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights Into the Aerodynamic Versus Radiometric Surface Temperature Debate in Thermal-Based Evaporation Modeling

Global evaporation monitoring from Earth observation thermal infrared satellite missions is historically challenged due to the unavailability of any direct measurements of aerodynamic temperature. State-of-the-art one-source evaporation models use remotely sensed radiometric surface temperature as a substitute for the aerodynamic temperature and apply empirical corrections to accommodate for their inequality. This introduces substantial uncertainty in operational drought mapping over complex landscapes. By employing a non-parametric model, we show that evaporation can be directly retrieved from thermal satellite data without the need of any empirical correction. Independent evaluation of evaporation in a broad spectrum of biome and aridity yielded statistically significant results when compared with eddy covariance observations. While our simplified model provides a new perspective to advance spatio-temporal evaporation mapping from any thermal remote sensing mission, the direct retrieval of aerodynamic temperature also generates the highly required insight on the critical role of biophysical interactions in global evaporation research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Determining the ballistic threshold velocity for a composite structure using multiple failure models

A composite structure, such as a laminated composite panel, for example, comprises one or more layers or “plies” embedded in a matrix material or otherwise fixed together in an arrangement, commonly referred to as a “stack up.” Each material in the structure has a corresponding material failure model (MFM) defining the physical characteristics of that material. A ballistic threshold velocity computing device obtains the MFMs for each material in the composite structure, generates a predicted ballistic velocity threshold velocity for each MFM, and then generates a parametric model to compute a composite ballistic velocity threshold velocity for the composite structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of the NLR Pumped Storage Hydropower Cost Model

The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) first released its pumped storage hydropower (PSH) cost model in 2023 as the most detailed bottom-up PSH cost model available to the public. It is available both as a spreadsheet and an interactive web tool, enabling users with a variety of PSH interests to transparently characterize costs of alternative PSH sites and designs. The PSH cost model cannot replace detailed site-level studies and design, but it is important to validate it against other industry PSH cost estimates. The initial model methodology report validated the cost model for a single proposed site, the Eagle Mountain Project in California. This slide deck documents an expanded validation exercise using cost data from six other sites: Goldendale (Washington), Seminoe (Wyoming), Gordon Butte (Montana), Swan Lake (Oregon), White Pine (Oregon), and Lewis Ridge (Kentucky). It compares itemized costs from Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) applications and other reported costs with NLR PSH cost model outputs after customizing inputs for each site. The validation exercise finds that the NLR model's conservative indirect cost assumptions often drive overall cost overestimation, with direct cost comparisons typically agreeing more closely. All cost model estimates are well within an Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) Class 5 estimation range (-50% to +100%), with five within the AACE Class 4 range (-30% to +50%) and four being within 15%. This result is considered reasonable performance for a parametric model applied at a preliminary design stage.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗