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At least 91 records · Page 5

Checkerboard patterns in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMFv2

Abstract. An unphysical checkerboard pattern is identified in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF that is detectable across a wide range of timescales, from instantaneous snapshots to multi-year averages. A detection method is developed to quantify characteristics of the checkerboard signal by cataloguing all possible configurations of the eight adjacent neighbors for each cell on the model's cubed sphere grid using daily mean data. The checkerboard pattern is only found in cloud-related quantities, such as precipitation and liquid water path. Instances of pure and partial checkerboard are found to occur more often in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF when compared to satellite data regridded to the model grid. Continuous periods of partial checkerboard state are found to be more persistent in both models compared to satellite data, with E3SM-MMF exhibiting more persistence than E3SMv2. The checkerboard signal in E3SMv2 is found to be a direct consequence of the recently added deep convective trigger condition based on dynamically generated CAPE (DCAPE). In E3SM-MMF the checkerboard signal is found to be associated with the “trapping” of cloud-scale fluctuations within the embedded cloud-resolving model. Solutions to remedy this issue are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Checkerboard Patterns in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMFv2

An unphysical checkerboard pattern is identified in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF that is detectable across a wide range of timescales, from instantaneous snapshots to multi-year averages. A detection method is developed to quantify characteristics of the checkerboard signal by cataloguing all possible configurations of the eight adjacent neighbors for each cell on the model's cubed sphere grid using daily mean data. The checkerboard pattern is only found in cloud-related quantities, such as precipitation and liquid water path. Instances of pure and partial checkerboard are found to occur more often in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF when compared to satellite data regridded to the model grid. Continuous periods of partial checkerboard state are found to be more persistent in both models compared to satellite data, with E3SM-MMF exhibiting more persistence than E3SMv2. The checkerboard signal in E3SMv2 is found to be a direct consequence of the recently added deep convective trigger condition based on dynamically generated CAPE (DCAPE). In E3SM-MMF the checkerboard signal is found to be associated with the “trapping” of cloud-scale fluctuations within the embedded cloud-resolving model. Solutions to remedy this issue are discussed.

E3SMv2↗

Evaluation of a cloudy cold-air pool in the Columbia River basin in different versions of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model

The accurate forecast of persistent orographic cold-air pools in numerical weather prediction models is essential for the optimal integration of wind energy into the electrical grid during these events. Model development efforts during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) aimed to address the challenges related to this. We evaluated three versions of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model with two different horizontal grid spacings against in situ and remote sensing observations to investigate how developments in physical parameterizations and numerical methods targeted during WFIP2 impacted the simulation of a persistent cold-air pool in the Columbia River basin. Differences amongst model versions were most apparent in simulated temperature and low-level cloud fields during the persistent phase of the cold-air pool. The model developments led to an enhanced low-level cloud cover, resulting in better agreement with the observations. This removed a diurnal cycle in the near-surface temperature bias at stations throughout the basin by reducing a cold bias during the night and a warm bias during the day. However, low-level clouds did not clear sufficiently during daytime in the newest model version, which leaves room for further model developments. The model developments also led to a better representation of the decay of the cold-air pool by slowing down its erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Modular, Portable Model of Image Fidelity

There is a persistent need for a trustworthy model of perceptual image fidelity, especially in applications such as image compression and display design. A fidelity model provides a measure of the visual discriminability of two images. Ahumada has previously shown that the existing fidelity models may be categorized according to their inclusion of various canonical properties, such as a contrast sensitivity function, spatial frequency channels, etc. This suggests that research would be aided by the availability of a modular model, in which these components could be easily inserted or removed. A further impediment to research in this area has been that most models are written in low-level languages and are consequently large, non-portable, and difficult to understand, modify, and maintain. We therefore believe research would also be aided by models written in high-level languages. To serve both of these purposes, and to honor our conference host for his lifetime dedication to the problem of image quality. Global brightness and its effect on perceptual image quality. We offer a modular model written in the high-level language Mathematica. We will demonstrate this model and show how it may be modified.

Watson, Andrew B.↗

Global centroid moment tensor solutions in a heterogeneous earth: the CMT3D catalogue

SUMMARY For over 40 yr, the global centroid-moment tensor (GCMT) project has determined location and source parameters for globally recorded earthquakes larger than magnitude 5.0. The GCMT database remains a trusted staple for the geophysical community. Its point-source moment-tensor solutions are the result of inversions that model long-period observed seismic waveforms via normal-mode summation for a 1-D reference earth model, augmented by path corrections to capture 3-D variations in surface wave phase speeds, and to account for crustal structure. While this methodology remains essentially unchanged for the ongoing GCMT catalogue, source inversions based on waveform modelling in low-resolution 3-D earth models have revealed small but persistent biases in the standard modelling approach. Keeping pace with the increased capacity and demands of global tomography requires a revised catalogue of centroid-moment tensors (CMT), automatically and reproducibly computed using Green's functions from a state-of-the-art 3-D earth model. In this paper, we modify the current procedure for the full-waveform inversion of seismic traces for the six moment-tensor parameters, centroid latitude, longitude, depth and centroid time of global earthquakes. We take the GCMT solutions as a point of departure but update them to account for the effects of a heterogeneous earth, using the global 3-D wave speed model GLAD-M25. We generate synthetic seismograms from Green's functions computed by the spectral-element method in the 3-D model, select observed seismic data and remove their instrument response, process synthetic and observed data, select segments of observed and synthetic data based on similarity, and invert for new model parameters of the earthquake’s centroid location, time and moment tensor. The events in our new, preliminary database containing 9382 global event solutions, called CMT3D for ‘3-D centroid-moment tensors’, are on average 4 km shallower, about 1 s earlier, about 5 per cent larger in scalar moment, and more double-couple in nature than in the GCMT catalogue. We discuss in detail the geographical and statistical distributions of the updated solutions, and place them in the context of earlier work. We plan to disseminate our CMT3D solutions via the online ShakeMovie platform.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Passive Superconducting Shielding: Experimental Results and Computer Models

Passive superconducting shielding for magnetic refrigerators has advantages over active shielding and passive ferromagnetic shielding in that it is lightweight and easy to construct. However, it is not as easy to model and does not fail gracefully. Failure of a passive superconducting shield may lead to persistent flwc and persistent currents. Unfortunately, modeling software for superconducting materials is not as easily available as is software for simple coils or for ferromagnetic materials. This paper will discuss ways of using available software to model passive superconducting shielding.

Warner, Brent↗

Passive Superconducting Shielding: Experimental Results and Computer Models

Passive superconducting shielding for magnetic refrigerators has advantages over active shielding and passive ferromagnetic shielding in that it is lightweight and easy to construct. However, it is not as easy to model and does not fail gracefully. Failure of a passive superconducting shield may lead to persistent flux and persistent currents. Unfortunately, modeling software for superconducting materials is not as easily available as is software for simple coils or for ferromagnetic materials. This paper will discuss ways of using available software to model passive superconducting shielding.

Warner, B. A.↗

Persistence Characteristics of Wind-Tunnel Pressure Signatures From Two Similar Models

Pressure signatures generated by two sonic-boom wind-tunnel models and measured at Mach 2 are presented, analyzed, and discussed. The two wind-tunnel models differed in length and span by a factor of fourteen, but were similar in wing-body planform shape. The geometry of the larger model had been low-boom tailored to generate a flat top ground pressure signature, and the nacelles-off pressure signatures from this model became more flattop in shape as the model-probe separation distances increased from 0.94 to 4.4 span lengths. The geometry of the smaller model had not been low-boom tailored, yet its measured pressure signatures had non-N-wave shapes that persisted as model-probe separation distances increased from 26.0 to 104.2 span lengths. Since the overall planforms of the two wind-tunnel models were so similar, it was concluded that the shape-persistence trends in the pressure signatures of the smaller, non-low-boom tailored model would also be present at very large distances in the pressure signatures of the larger, low-boom-tailored model.

Mack, Robert J.↗

Requirements for improved modeling of the orbital atmosphere

Satellite accelerometer data are available for seven time periods during the period 1974 to the present. All seasons and latitudes up to 83 deg are covered. Deviations between the accelerometer data and current models are greatest for high geographic latitudes and high geomagnetic index, although about a 15 percent standard deviation persists between the models and the accelerometer data even at low latitudes and geomagnetically quiet times. Accelerometer data give density times the ballistic coefficient and it is therefore necessary to estimate the time-line of the ballistic coefficient in order to obtain density.

Marcos, Frank A.↗

Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) Science Plan

Mountains are the natural water towers of the world, effectively turning water vapor into readily available fresh water through precipitation, snowpack, and runoff. Unfortunately, Earth system models (ESMs) have persistently been unable to predict the timing and availability of water resources from mountains because the source(s) of model error are difficult to isolate in complex terrain with limited atmospheric or land-surface observations. Further complications arise from the gross scale mismatch between ESM grid box sizes and the relevant scales of mountainous hydrological processes. The mountain hydrometeorology community has repeatedly called for integrated atmospheric and land observations of water and energy budgets in complex terrain that span these scales to establish benchmarks against which scale-dependent models can be further developed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermomechanical evolution of oceanic fracture zones

To explain the topographic and gravitational signals of fracture zones (FZs), a realistic model is developed and compared with Seasat altimeter data across three major FZs. The model is based on the thermal, subsidence, and mechanical models of the oceanic lithosphere. The model is used to calculate the FZ topography and the evolution of the geoid signature across a FZ. When lithospheric flexure is included, the model explains the persistence of sharp FZ geoid steps on old seafloor as well as the asymmetry of the geoid steps across major FZs. The model does not explain the disappearance of the thermal part of the FZ geoid signature. The model profiles are used to access the various techniques for estimating the overall geoid offsets across FZs. It is shown that steps may be underestimated by as much as 50 percent. These predictions, if correct, will force reinterpretation of published geoid height versus age data derived from altimeter profiles across FZs.

Sandwell, D. T.↗

Modelling TOVS radiances of synoptic systems

Two operational analysis models, produced by ECMWF and NMC, are compared against observed satellite radiances by converting the analyzed variables into synthetic radiances using a radiative transfer model (RTM). Observed TOVS satellite radiances are used as a ground truth, since they are the only source of continuous, synoptic-scale resolution observations available over the data-sparse tropical Pacific Ocean. It is assumed that if the analysis models correctly simulate atmospheric conditions, the observed and modelled radiance fields will have similar patterns and magnitudes. In each of seven TOVS channels examined, the mean temperature difference between the models was small, but the differences between the models and the observations were large. The mean temperature difference within each channel was larger than the standard deviation in most cases. The moisture channels of the RTM were sensitive to changes in moisture content, but none of the channels were significantly affected by changes in temperature. Single-day modelled radiance analyses contain synoptic information similar to the satellite observations. ECMWF is often too noisy, producing features not verified by the satellite; NMC is often too smooth. NMC more closely resembles the TOVS contours. Modelled water vapor channel analyses resemble observed monthly and composited observations well, but do not accurately reproduce the highly-variable single-day fields. ECMWF generally has more accurate gradients. Neither model simulates the tropics well. The water vapor channels, especially channel eleven (weighted at 700 mb), most closely resembled the tropical plume composite described by McGuirk and Ulsh. The only plume evidence found in the thermal or microwave channels, in either the observations or the models, was a composite trough situated in the correct location, extending from the mid-latitudes into the subtropics. This feature was not readily discernable until the definition and mature stages. Additional information besides the modelled temperatures would be required to produce an accurate forecast for the tropics. Model patterns more closely resembled the observations in the quiescent atmosphere, though the magnitudes were not any closer. ECMWF simulates the TOVS quiescent state better than NMC. The moisture channels continue to present the most realistic patterns. The models contained more detail in the tropics than was verified by the satellite observations, apparently trying to force an active ITCZ. Lag correlations showed TOVS to be more persistent than the models. TOVS also showed a smoother lag trend, but all products appeared to have adequate ability to react to changes in the atmosphere over time.

Coe, Thomas Eddy↗

Radial pulsations in DB white dwarfs?

Theoretical models of DB white dwarfs are unstable against radial pulsation at effective temperatures near 20,000-30,000 K. Many high-overtone modes are unstable, with periods ranging from 12 s down to the acoustic cutoff period of approximately 0.1 s. The blue edge for radial instability lies at slightly higher effective temperatures than for nonradial pulsations, with the temperature of the blue edge dependent on the assumed efficiency of convection. Models with increased convective efficiency have radial blue edges that are increasingly closer to the nonradial blue edge; in all models the instability persists into the nonradial instability strip. Radial pulsations therefore may exist in the hottest DB stars that lie below the DB gap; the greatest chance for detection would be observations in the ultraviolet. These models also explain why searches for radial pulsations in DA white dwarfs have failed: the efficient convection needed to explain the blue edge for nonradial DA pulsation means that the radial instability strip is 1000 K cooler than found in previous investigations. The multiperiodic nature of the expected pulsations can be used to advantage to identify very low amplitude modes using the uniform spacing of the modes in frequency. This frequency spacing is a direct indicator of the mass of the star.

Kawaler, Steven D.↗

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

2021-2022 Remote Work Study Final Results

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many organizations—from national laboratories to private companies—to change their workforce model to incorporate remote work. This study and the summarized results sought to understand the experiences of remote workers and the ways that remote work can impact recruitment and retention, employee engagement, and career development. Sandia, like many companies, has committed to establishing a hybrid work model that will persist postpandemic, and more Sandia employees than ever before have initiated remote work agreements. This parallels the nationwide increase in remote employment and motivates this study on remote work as an enduring part of workforce models.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DLHub: Simplifying publication, discovery, and use of machine learning models in science

Machine Learning (ML) has become a critical tool enabling new methods of analysis and driving deeper understanding of phenomena across scientific disciplines. There is a growing need for "learning systems" to support various phases in the ML lifecycle. While others have focused on supporting model development, training, and inference, few have focused on the unique challenges inherent in science, such as the need to publish and share models and to serve them on a range of available computing resources. In this paper, we present the Data and Learning Hub for science (DLHub), a learning system designed to support these use cases. Specifically, DLHub enables publication of models, with descriptive metadata, persistent identifiers, and flexible access control. It packages arbitrary models into portable servable containers, and enables low-latency, distributed serving of these models on heterogeneous compute resources. In this work, we show that DLHub supports low-latency model inference comparable to other model serving systems including TensorFlow Serving, SageMaker, and Clipper, and improved performance, by up to 95%, with batching and memoization enabled. We also show that DLHub can scale to concurrently serve models on 500 containers. Finally, we describe five case studies that highlight the use of DLHub for scientific applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact of confined geometries on hopping and trapping of motile bacteria in porous media

We use a random walk particle-tracking (RWPT) approach to elucidate the impact of porous media confinement and cell-cell interactions on bacterial transport. The model employs stochastic alternating motility states consisting of hopping movement and trapping reorientation. The stochastic motility patterns are defined based on direct visualization of individual trajectory data. We validate our model against experimental data, at single-cell resolution, of bacterial E. coli motion in three-dimensional confined porous media. Results show that the model is able to efficiently simulate the spreading dynamics of motile bacteria as it captures the impact of cell-cell interaction and pore confinement, which marks the transition to a late-time subdiffusive regime. Furthermore, the model is able to qualitatively reproduce the observed directional persistence. Lastly, our RWPT model constitutes a meshless simple method which is easy to implement and does not invoke ad hoc assumptions but represents the basis for a multiscale approach to the study of bacterial dispersal in porous systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Supplementary notes on sea surface temperature anomalies and model-generated meteorological histories

In seasonal computations, the Mintz-Arakawa two-level model is found to be sensitive to a minor alteration in the computational program. Effects of the program change on monthly mean sea level pressure fields are small in the first month, but large in the second and third months, although the meteorological histories generated by both the original and modified programs are equally credible. The inherited effects of a transient (one month) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly on the computed monthly mean sea level pressure fields over a period of a season are about as large in absolute magnitude as those generated in the model by a persistent (seasonal) SST anomaly. The effects of a transient SST anomaly in the North Pacific Ocean on monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation in the eastern United States may be large enough to produce a change of one or two class intervals in these predicted weather elements. The model-generated precipitation in the equatorial region is also found to be sensitive to the sea surface temperature field in the North Pacific.

Spar, J.↗