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Dynamical Instabilities in Systems of Multiple Short-period Planets Are Likely Driven by Secular Chaos: A Case Study of Kepler-102

We investigated the dynamical stability of high-multiplicity Kepler and K2 planetary systems. Our numerical simulations find instabilities in ∼20% of the cases on a wide range of timescales (up to 5 × 10{sup 9} orbits) and over an unexpectedly wide range of initial dynamical spacings. To identify the triggers of long-term instability in multiplanet systems, we investigated in detail the five-planet Kepler-102 system. Despite having several near-resonant period ratios, we find that mean-motion resonances are unlikely to directly cause instability for plausible planet masses in this system. Instead, we find strong evidence that slow inward transfer of angular momentum deficit (AMD) via secular chaos excites the eccentricity of the innermost planet, Kepler-102 b, eventually leading to planet–planet collisions in ∼80% of Kepler-102 simulations. Kepler-102 b likely needs a mass ≳0.1 M {sub ⊕}, hence a bulk density exceeding about half Earth’s, in order to avoid dynamical instability. To investigate the role of secular chaos in our wider set of simulations, we characterize each planetary system’s AMD evolution with a “spectral fraction” calculated from the power spectrum of short integrations (∼5 × 10{sup 6} orbits). We find that small spectral fractions (≲0.01) are strongly associated with dynamical stability on long timescales (5 × 10{sup 9} orbits) and that the median time to instability decreases with increasing spectral fraction. Our results support the hypothesis that secular chaos is the driver of instabilities in many nonresonant multiplanet systems and also demonstrate that the spectral analysis method is an efficient numerical tool to diagnose long-term (in)stability of multiplanet systems from short simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Around Which Stars Can TESS Detect Earth-like Planets? The Revised TESS Habitable Zone Catalog

In the search for life in the cosmos, NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission has already monitored about 74% of the sky for transiting extrasolar planets, including potentially habitable worlds. However, TESS only observed a fraction of the stars long enough to be able to find planets like Earth. We use the primary mission data—the first two years of observations—and identify 4239 stars within 210 pc that TESS observed long enough to see three transits of an exoplanet that receives similar irradiation to Earth: 738 of these stars are located within 30 pc. We provide reliable stellar parameters from the TESS Input Catalog that incorporates Gaia DR2 and also calculate the transit depth and radial velocity semiamplitude for an Earth-analog planet. Of the 4239 stars in the Revised TESS HZ Catalog, 9 are known exoplanet hosts—GJ1061, GJ1132, GJ3512, GJ685, Kepler-42, LHS1815, L98-59, RRCae, and TOI700—around which TESS could identify additional Earth-like planetary companions. Thirty-seven additional stars host yet unconfirmed TESS Objects of Interest: three of these orbit in the habitable zone—TOI203, TOI715, and TOI2298. For a subset of 614 of the 4239 stars, TESS has observed the star long enough to be able to observe planets throughout the full temperate, habitable zone out to the equivalent of Mars’ orbit. Thus, the Revised TESS Habitable Zone Catalog provides a tool for observers to prioritize stars for follow-up observation to discover life in the cosmos. These stars are the best path toward the discovery of habitable planets using the TESS mission data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dynamical instability in multi-orbiter systems with gas friction

ABSTRACT Closely packed multiplanet systems are known to experience dynamical instability if the spacings between the planets are too small. Such instability can be tempered by the frictional forces acting on the planets from gaseous discs. A similar situation applies to stellar-mass black holes embedded in active galactic nuclei discs around supermassive black holes. We use N-body integrations to evaluate how the frictional damping of orbital eccentricity affects the growth of dynamical instability for a wide range of K (the difference in the planetary semimajor axes in units of the mutual Hill radius) and (unequal) planet masses. We find that, in general, the stable region (large K) and unstable region (small K) are separated by a “grey zone”, where the (in)stability is not guaranteed. We report the numerical values of the critical spacing for stability Kcrit and the “grey zone” range in different systems, and provide fitting formulae for arbitrary frictional forcing strength. We show that the stability of a system depends on the damping time-scale τ relative to the zero-friction instability growth time-scale tinst: two-planet systems are stable if tinst ≳ τ; three-planet systems require tinst ≳ 10τ−100τ. When K is sufficiently small, tinst can be less than the synodic period between the planets, which makes frictional stabilization unlikely to occur. As K increases, tinst tends to grow exponentially, but can also fluctuate by a few orders of magnitude. We also devise a linear map to analyse the dynamical instability of the “planet + test mass” system, and find qualitative agreement with N-body simulations.

Li, Jiaru (ORCID:0000000155507421)↗

OGLE-2016-BLG-1227L: A Wide-separation Planet from a Very Short-timescale Microlensing Event

We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-1227. The light curve of this short-duration event appears to be a single-lens event affected by severe finite-source effects. Analysis of the light curve based on a single-lens single-source (1L1S) model yields very small values of the event timescale, t{sub E}∼3.5 days, and the angular Einstein radius, θ{sub E}∼0.009 mas, making the lens a candidate of a free-floating planet. Close inspection reveals that the 1L1S solution leaves small residuals with an amplitude of ΔI ≲ 0.03 mag. We find that the residuals are explained by the existence of an additional widely separated heavier lens component, indicating that the lens is a wide-separation planetary system rather than a free-floating planet. From Bayesian analysis, it is estimated that the planet has a mass of M{sub p}=0.79{sub −0.39}{sup +1.30} M{sub J} and it is orbiting a low-mass host star with a mass of M{sub host}=0.10{sub −0.05}{sup +0.17} M{sub ⊙} located with a projected separation of a{sub ⊥}=3.4{sub −1.0}{sup +2.1} au. The planetary system is located in the Galactic bulge with a line-of-sight separation from the source star of D{sub LS}=1.21{sub −0.63}{sup +0.96} kpc. The event shows that there is a range of deviations in the signatures of host stars for apparently isolated planetary lensing events and that it is possible to identify a host even when a deviation is subtle.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT ‘EM) Survey. I. Confirmation of an Eccentric, Cool Jupiter with an Interior Earth-sized Planet Orbiting Kepler-1514

Despite the severe bias of the transit method of exoplanet discovery toward short orbital periods, a modest sample of transiting exoplanets with orbital periods greater than 100 days is known. Long-term radial velocity (RV) surveys are pivotal to confirming these signals and generating a set of planetary masses and densities for planets receiving moderate to low irradiation from their host stars. Here we conduct RV observations of Kepler-1514 from the Keck I telescope using the High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer. From these data, we measure the mass of the statistically validated giant (1.108 ± 0.023 R {sub J}) exoplanet Kepler-1514 b with a 218-day orbital period as 5.28 ± 0.22 M {sub J}. The bulk density of this cool (∼390 K) giant planet is 4.82{sub −0.25}{sup +0.26}g cm{sup −3}, consistent with a core supported by electron degeneracy pressure. We also infer an orbital eccentricity of 0.401{sub −0.014}{sup +0.013} from the RV and transit observations, which is consistent with planet–planet scattering and disk cavity migration models. The Kepler-1514 system contains an Earth-size, Kepler Object of Interest on a 10.5-day orbit that we statistically validate against false-positive scenarios, including those involving a neighboring star. The combination of the brightness (V = 11.8) of the host star and the long period, low irradiation, and high density of Kepler-1514 b places this system among a rare group of known exoplanetary systems and as one that is amenable to continued study.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The TESS–Keck Survey. I. A Warm Sub-Saturn-mass Planet and a Caution about Stray Light in TESS Cameras

We report the detection of a Saturn-size exoplanet orbiting HD 332231 (TOI 1456) in light curves from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). HD 332231—an F8 dwarf star with a V-band magnitude of 8.56—was observed by TESS in Sectors 14 and 15. We detect a single-transit event in the Sector 15 presearch data conditioning (PDC) light curve. We obtain spectroscopic follow-up observations of HD 332231 with the Automated Planet Finder, Keck I, and SONG telescopes. The orbital period we infer from radial velocity (RV) observations leads to the discovery of another transit in Sector 14 that was masked by PDC due to scattered light contamination. A joint analysis of the transit and RV data confirms the planetary nature of HD 332231 b, a Saturn-size (0.867{sub −0.025}{sup +0.027} R{sub J}), sub-Saturn-mass (0.244±0.021 M{sub J}) exoplanet on a 18.71 day circular orbit. The low surface gravity of HD 332231 b and the relatively low stellar flux it receives make it a compelling target for transmission spectroscopy. Also, the stellar obliquity is likely measurable via the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect, an exciting prospect given the 0.14 au orbital separation of HD 332231 b. The spectroscopic observations do not provide substantial evidence for any additional planets in the HD 332231 system, but continued RV monitoring is needed to further characterize this system. We also predict that the frequency and duration of masked data in the PDC light curves for TESS Sectors 14–16 could hide transits of some exoplanets with orbital periods between 10.5 and 17.5 days.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Two Transiting Hot Jupiters from the WASP Survey: WASP-150b and WASP-176b

We report the discovery of two transiting exoplanets from the WASP survey, WASP-150b and WASP-176b. WASP-150b is an eccentric (e = 0.38) hot Jupiter on a 5.6 day orbit around a V = 12.03, F8 main-sequence host. The host star has a mass and radius of 1.4 M{sub ⊙} and 1.7 R{sub ⊙} respectively. WASP-150b has a mass and radius of 8.5 M{sub J} and 1.1 R {sub J}, leading to a large planetary bulk density of 6.4 ρ {sub J}. WASP-150b is found to be ∼3 Gyr old, well below its circularization timescale, supporting the eccentric nature of the planet. WASP-176b is a hot Jupiter planet on a 3.9 day orbit around a V = 12.01, F9 sub-giant host. The host star has a mass and radius of 1.3 M {sub ⊙} and 1.9 R {sub ⊙}. WASP-176b has a mass and radius of 0.86 M {sub J} and 1.5 R {sub J}, respectively, leading to a planetary bulk density of 0.23 ρ {sub J}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Scheduling strategies for the ESPRESSO follow-up of TESS targets

ABSTRACT Radial-velocity follow-up of stars harbouring transiting planets detected by TESS is expected to require very large amounts of expensive telescope time in the next few years. Therefore, scheduling strategies should be implemented to maximize the amount of information gathered about the target planetary systems. We consider myopic and non-myopic versions of a novel uniform-in-phase scheduler, as well as a random scheduler, and compare these scheduling strategies with respect to the bias, accuracy and precision achieved in recovering the mass and orbital parameters of transiting and non-transiting planets. This comparison is carried out based on realistic simulations of radial-velocity follow-up with ESPRESSO of a sample of 50 TESS target stars, with simulated planetary systems containing at least one transiting planet with a radius below 4R⊕. Radial-velocity data sets were generated under reasonable assumptions about their noise component, including that resulting from stellar activity, and analysed using a fully Bayesian methodology. We find the random scheduler leads to a more biased, less accurate, and less precise, estimation of the mass of the transiting exoplanets. No significant differences are found between the results of the myopic and non-myopic implementations of the uniform-in-phase scheduler. With only about 22 radial velocity measurements per data set, our novel uniform-in-phase scheduler enables an unbiased (at the level of 1 per cent) measurement of the masses of the transiting planets, while keeping the average relative accuracy and precision around 16 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively. The number of non-transiting planets detected is similar for all the scheduling strategies considered, as well as the bias, accuracy and precision with which their masses and orbital parameters are recovered.

Cabona, L.↗

The GAPS programme at TNG

Neptunes represent one of the main types of exoplanets and have chemical-physical characteristics halfway between rocky and gas giant planets. Therefore, their characterization is important for understanding and constraining both the formation mechanisms and the evolution patterns of planets. We investigate the exoplanet candidate TOI-1422 b, which was discovered by the TESS space telescope around the high proper-motion G2 V star TOI-1422 (V = 10.6 mag), 155 pc away, with the primary goal of confirming its planetary nature and characterising its properties. We monitored TOI-1422 with the HARPS-N spectrograph for 1.5 yr to precisely quantify its radial velocity (RV) variation. We analyse these RV measurements jointly with TESS photometry and check for blended companions through high-spatial resolution images using the AstraLux instrument. We estimate that the parent star has a radius of R$_\star$ = 1.019 -0.013 +0.014 R ⊙ , and a mass of M$_\star$ = 1.019 -0.013 +0.014 M ⊙ . Our analysis confirms the planetary nature of TOI-1422 b and also suggests the presence of a Neptune-mass planet on a more distant orbit, the candidate TOI-1422 c, which is not detected in TESS light curves. The inner planet, TOI-1422 b, orbits on a period of P b = 12.9972 ± 0.0006 days and has an equilibrium temperature of T eq,b = 867 ± 17 K. With a radius of R b = 3.96 -0.11 +0.13 R ⊕ , a mass of M b = 9.0 -2.0 +2.3 M ⊕ and, consequently, a density of ρ b = 0.795 -0.235 +0.290 g cm -3 , it can be considered a warm Neptune-sized planet. Compared to other exoplanets of a similar mass range, TOI-1422 b is among the most inflated, and we expect this planet to have an extensive gaseous envelope that surrounds a core with a mass fraction around 10% – 25% of the total mass of the planet. The outer non-transiting planet candidate, TOI-1422 c, has an orbital period of P c = 29.29 -0.20 +0.21 days, a minimum mass, M c sin i, of 11.1 -2.3 +2.6 M ⊕ , an equilibrium temperature of T eq,c = 661 ± 13 K and, therefore, if confirmed, could be considered as another warm Neptune.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TESS Reveals HD 118203 b to be a Transiting Planet

The exoplanet HD 118203 b, orbiting a bright (V = 8.05) host star, was discovered using the radial velocity method by da Silva et al., but was not previously known to transit. Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) photometry has revealed that this planet transits its host star. Nine planetary transits were observed by TESS, allowing us to measure the radius of the planet to be 1.136{sub −0.028}{sup +0.029}R{sub J}, and to calculate the planet mass to be 2.166{sub −0.079}{sup +0.074}M{sub J}. The host star is slightly evolved with an effective temperature of T{sub eff}=5683{sub −85}{sup +84} K and a surface gravity of log g=3.889{sub 0.018}{sup 0.017}. With an orbital period of 6.134985{sub −0.000030}{sup +0.000029} days and an eccentricity of 0.314 ± 0.017, the planet occupies a transitional regime between circularized hot Jupiters and more dynamically active planets at longer orbital periods. The host star is among the 10 brightest known to have transiting giant planets, providing opportunities for both planetary atmospheric and asteroseismic studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Impact of Classical and General Relativistic Obliquity Precessions on the Habitability of Circumstellar Neutron Stars’ Planets

Recently, it has been shown that rocky planets orbiting neutron stars can be habitable under plausible circumstances. If a distant, point-like source of visible light, such as a Sun-like main-sequence star or the gravitationally-lensed accretion disk of a supermassive black hole is present, possible temporal variations Δε{sub p}(t) of the planet’s axial tilt ε {sub p} to the ecliptic plane should be included in the overall habitability budget since the obliquity determines the insolation at a given latitude on a body’ s surface. I point out that, for rather generic initial spin–orbit initial configurations, general relativistic and classical spin variations induced by the post-Newtonian de Sitter and Lense–Thirring components of the field of the host neutron star and by its pull to the planetary oblateness J{sub 2}{sup p} may induce huge and very fast variations of ε {sub p} that would likely have an impact on the habitability of such worlds. In particular, for a planet’s distance of, say, 0.005 au from a 1.4 M {sub ⊙} neutron star corresponding to an orbital period P {sub b} = 0.109 day, obliquity shifts Δε {sub p} as large as ε{sub p}{sup max}−ε{sub p}{sup min}≃50{sup ∘}--100{sup ∘} over characteristic timescales as short as 10 days (J{sub 2}{sup p}) to 3 Myr (Lense–Thirring) may occur for arbitrary orientations of the orbital and spin angular momenta L, S {sub ns}, S {sub p} of the planet-neutron star system. In view of this feature of their spins, I dub such hypothetical planets as “nethotrons.”.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TOI-908: a planet at the edge of the Neptune desert transiting a G-type star

ABSTRACT We present the discovery of an exoplanet transiting TOI-908 (TIC-350153977) using data from TESS sectors 1, 12, 13, 27, 28, and 39. TOI-908 is a T = 10.7 mag G-dwarf (Teff = 5626 ± 61 K) solar-like star with a mass of 0.950 ± 0.010 M⊙ and a radius of 1.028 ± 0.030 R⊙. The planet, TOI-908 b, is a 3.18 ± 0.16 R⊕ planet in a 3.18 d orbit. Radial velocity measurements from HARPS reveal TOI-908 b has a mass of approximately 16.1 ± 4.1 M⊕, resulting in a bulk planetary density of $2.7^{+0.2}_{-0.4}$ g cm−3. TOI-908 b lies in a sparsely populated region of parameter space known as the Neptune desert. The planet likely began its life as a sub-Saturn planet before it experienced significant photoevaporation due to X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation from its host star, and is likely to continue evaporating, losing a significant fraction of its residual envelope mass.

Hawthorn, Faith (ORCID:000000028675182X)↗

Seismology on Venus with infrasound observations from balloon and orbit

The study of Venus' evolution is inexorably linked with studying its interior properties, which can be investigated by performing seismic studies on the planet. However, seismology on Venus has long eluded planetary scientists due to technological challenges presented by high surface temperature and pressure, which limit lifetimes of surface-based instrumentation. In this white paper, we present two complementary techniques for performing seismology on Venus by measuring the low-frequency acoustic signature (infrasound) produced by seismic activity through coupling between the solid planet and the atmosphere. These techniques may be implemented with technology available today, without the use of high-temperature electronics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Late-time small body disruptions for planetary defense

Here, diverting hazardous small bodies on impact trajectories with the Earth can in some circumstances be impossible without risking disrupting them. Disruption is a much more difficult planetary defense scenario to assess, being linked both to the response of the body to shock loading and the much more complicated gravitational dynamics of the fragments in the solar system relative to pure deflection scenarios. In this work we present a new simulation suite built on N-body gravitational methods that solves fragment orbits in the full gravitational system without recourse to more approximate methods. We assess the accuracy of our simulations and the simplifying assumptions we adopt to make the system tractable, and then discuss in more detail several specific, plausible planetary defense scenarios based on real close encounters. We find that disruption can be a very effective planetary defense strategy even for very late (sub-year) interventions, and should be considered an effective backup strategy should preferred methods, which require long warning times, fail.

42 ENGINEERING↗

TOI-2076 and TOI-1807: Two Young, Comoving Planetary Systems within 50 pc Identified by TESS that are Ideal Candidates for Further Follow Up

We report the discovery of two planetary systems around comoving stars: TOI-2076 (TIC 27491137) and TOI-1807 (TIC 180695581). TOI-2076 is a nearby (41.9 pc) multiplanetary system orbiting a young (204 ± 50 Myr), bright (K = 7.115 in TIC v8.1) start. TOI-1807 hosts a single transiting planet and is similarly nearby (42.58 pc), similarly young (180 ± 40 Myr ), and bright. Both targets exhibit significant, periodic variability due to starspots, characteristic of their young ages. Using photometric data collected by TESS we identify three transiting planets around TOI-2076 with radii of R {sub b} = 3.3 ± 0.04 R {sub ⊕}, R {sub c} = 4.4 ± 0.05 R {sub ⊕}, and R {sub d} = 4.1 ± 0.07 R {sub ⊕}. Planet TOI-2076b has a period of P {sub b} = 10.356 days. For both TOI-2076c and d, TESS observed only two transits, separated by a 2 yr interval in which no data were collected, preventing a unique period determination. A range of long periods (<17 days) are consistent with the data. We identify a short-period planet around TOI-1807 with a radius of R {sub b} = 1.8 ± 0.04 R {sub ⊕} and a period of P {sub b} = 0.549 days. Their close proximity, and bright, cool host stars, and young ages make these planets excellent candidates for follow up. TOI-1807b is one of the best-known small (R < 2 R{sub ⊕}) planets for characterization via eclipse spectroscopy and phase curves with JWST. TOI-1807b is the youngest ultra-short-period planet discovered to date, providing valuable constraints on formation timescales of short-period planets. Given the rarity of young planets, particularly in multiple-planet systems, these planets present an unprecedented opportunity to study and compare exoplanet formation, and young planet atmospheres, at a crucial transition age for formation theory.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Machine Learns to Predict the Stability of Highly Diverse Multi-planetary Systems

Machine learning has proven to be an invaluable tool for characterizing the stability of planets in simplified planetary systems. In this work, we investigate the performance of a machine learning classifier on tightlypacked systems containing a rich diversity of planets, from Earths to Jupiters. Using information derived from short numerical simulations about a planet’s early orbital evolution and its relationship with the most massive planets in the system, we train a random forest classifier to predict instability with a > 88 percent accuracy. Our classifier relies on relative planet masses and the standard deviation of eccentricity for much of its predictive power. Most misclassified planets lie along a multi-dimensional boundary between stable and unstable planets, indicating that their early orbital evolution is ambiguous. The major reason for misclassification in this work is timescale: because our classifier uses information from only the first 137 years of simulation data, it is blind to late time interactions that cause or prevent instability. Machine learning methods like those utilized in this work provide powerful tools to complement numerical simulations across a wide range of planetary architectures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A kinematic excess in the annular gap and gas-depleted cavity in the disc around HD 169142

ABSTRACT We present ALMA band 6 images of the 12CO, 13CO, and C18O J = 2-1 line emissions for the circumstellar disc around HD 169142, at ∼8 au spatial resolution. We resolve a central gas-depleted cavity, along with two independent near-symmetric ring-like structures in line emission: a well-defined inner gas ring [∼25 au] and a second relatively fainter and diffuse outer gas ring [∼65 au]. We identify a localized super-Keplerian feature or vertical flow with a magnitude of ∼75 ms−1 in the 12CO map. This feature has the shape of an arc that spans azimuthally across a position angle range of −60° to 45° and radially in between the B1[26au] and B2[59au] dust rings. Through reconstruction of the gas surface density profile, we find that the magnitude of the background perturbations by the pressure support and self-gravity terms are not significant enough to account for the kinematic excess. If of planetary origin, the relative depletion in the gas-density profile would suggest a 1 MJ planet. In contrast, the central cavity displays relatively smooth kinematics, suggesting either a low-mass companion and/or a binary orbit with a minimal vertical velocity component.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Host Star Metallicity of Directly Imaged Wide-orbit Planets: Implications for Planet Formation

Directly imaged planets (DIPs) are self-luminous companions of pre-main-sequence and young main-sequence stars. They reside in wider orbits (∼tens to thousands of astronomical units) and generally are more massive compared to the close-in (≲10 au) planets. Determining the host star properties of these outstretched planetary systems is important to understand and discern various planet formation and evolution scenarios. We present the stellar parameters and metallicity ([Fe/H]) for a subsample of 18 stars known to host planets discovered by the direct imaging technique. We retrieved the high-resolution spectra for these stars from public archives and used the synthetic spectral fitting technique and Bayesian analysis to determine the stellar properties in a uniform and consistent way. For eight sources, the metallicities are reported for the first time, while the results are consistent with the previous estimates for the other sources. Our analysis shows that metallicities of stars hosting DIPs are close to solar with a mean [Fe/H] = −0.04 ± 0.27 dex. The large scatter in metallicity suggests that a metal-rich environment may not be necessary to form massive planets at large orbital distances. We also find that the planet mass–host star metallicity relation for the directly imaged massive planets in wide orbits is very similar to that found for the well-studied population of short-period (≲1 yr) super-Jupiters and brown dwarfs around main-sequence stars.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗