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DOE OSTI2026

Holistic Transportation and Energy Modeling

This project advances the development and application of the TEMPO transportation energy systems model to support DOE analysis of evolving mobility futures. Recent work has focused on improving model transparency, performance, and fidelity through a redesigned software architecture and updated technology adoption scenarios aligned with the latest data and assumptions. Ongoing efforts aim to expand TEMPO's ability to assess transportation affordability and consumer decision-making, including vehicle ownership dynamics and distributional impacts across households. These enhancements position TEMPO to better inform policy and R&D decisions by providing more behaviorally realistic and policy-relevant insights into transportation energy use, technology adoption, and system-level outcomes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Louisville Communities LEAP Engagement: Improving Energy Efficiency in Affordable Housing [Slides]

This presentation outlines the initial results from a year-plus engagement between the National Renewable Energy Lab and Louisville, Kentucky through the U.S. Department of Energy's Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) effort. Louisville, as represented by the Louisville Metro Government, Kentuckians for the Commonwealth, and the Metropolitan Housing Coalition, sought technical assistance from the labs to address energy usage in its residential housing stock as part of efforts to reduce community-wide emissions and high energy burdens throughout its community. The Communities LEAP scope of work included an energy efficiency analysis that leveraged ResStock data to identify key efficient technologies to explore for retrofitting Louisville's housing stock; technical support around developing a community benchmarking ordinance to help Louisville track its progress towards reducing energy usage; a workforce development overview to help Louisville ensure a sufficient and equitable distribution of clean-energy-related jobs supported by its energy efficiency efforts; a policy analysis component to track energy efficiency related policies Louisville may be interested in adapting from peer communities across the country; and a financing analysis component to identify opportunities to lower the barrier to clean energy adoption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the New Home Market Opportunity: Case Study and Cost Modeling for Solar and Storage in 2030

Residential solar and storage markets are growing in the United States. With approximately 1 million new homes constructed every year, this represents a significant opportunity for solar and storage installations. Some homebuilders have begun to build new homes with solar and storage included as a standard offering. It is not clear how solar and storage is incorporated into the new construction process and at what cost. Further, it is unclear what barriers or opportunities exist to scale this model nationwide. To fill this gap in the literature, this research conducts a case study of Mandalay Homes' new solar and storage community in Arizona to gather lessons learned. From this foundation, we further generate a set of pathways to reduce install costs and expand solar and storage market penetration in this sector. To model existing and 2030 solar and storage costs, we use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) bottom-up cost model. This modeling is further informed by 12 interviews conducted with new home builders, solar contractors, and other subject matter expert organizations. Our case study analysis generated three key considerations for other homebuilders including: 1. Educating local permitting, inspection, and in some cases utility officials on solar and storage products, designs, and code compliant building practices may be required. The need for education may decline as more local governments and utilities review and approve solar and storage projects. 2. Incorporating solar and storage systems into the homebuilding process can add complexity and related coordination challenges. This does not need to result in home construction delays, but can result in costly contractor "dry runs" to construction sites. 3. Deploying solar and storage at the time of new construction has significant economies of scale, which can improve the value proposition of the systems. The case study, extant literature, and interviews were used to model both existing and future solar and storage installation costs at time of new construction. Here, we find three key cost reduction opportunities relating to solar and battery storage hardware, customer acquisition, and overhead. If future contractors can maximize the cost reduction opportunities outlined here, residential new construction costs could decline by 8 - 25% by 2030, depending on the modeled scenario. Though we expect costs to decline through 2030, it is unclear which of these scenarios may ultimately appear. Interviewees further identified a variety of barriers across each cost category that could temper the savings shown here. At the same time, interviewees described several pathways to scale the new construction solar and storage market, beyond installation cost savings. Interviewees confirmed that changes in finance, rate design, resilience policies, deployment mandates, and DER aggregation could all support more market adoption than seen today. These findings suggest that there are significant opportunities to expand new construction markets and this research can serve as a baseline to assess progress in this segment through 2030.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cool rooms for indoor heat resilience: Evaluating affordable cooling strategies in heat-stressed California homes

Extreme heat conditions pose significant indoor survivability challenges for resource-constrained communities, which often lack access to cooling, have poorly insulated homes, and face compounding socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Moreover, concurrent power outages worsen health risks and heat-related illnesses. It is therefore crucial to develop innovative and affordable cooling approaches to protect vulnerable populations. This study assesses the efficacy of “cool rooms”– a designated space within a home equipped with passive and low-power active cooling measures to maintain safe indoor temperatures during extreme heat events and power disruptions. Using a physics-based building energy modeling approach, we evaluate the efficacy of various retrofit packages in maintaining thermal safety within the cool room under recent extreme heat conditions. The results indicate that passive measures can reduce 64% of hours with unmet standard effective temperatures, while the combination of passive and low-power active measures with built-in batteries further cuts this to 86%. Nevertheless, these strategies remain insufficient to maintain indoor thermal safety during extended outages. In contrast, integrating a solar-powered mini-split heat pump, whose technical potential was evaluated in this study, reduces indoor air temperatures below the 28 °C overheating threshold and significantly improves indoor habitability. The localized cool room strategy also offers potential for grid resilience by reducing peak electricity demand by up to 70% compared to whole house cooling during heat waves. The findings can inform the development of actionable heat mitigation plans and retrofit policies for residential communities with relatively low adoption of air conditioning such as warm marine climates.

Cool room↗
DOE OSTI2026

The global policy landscape of ISO 50001 energy management systems

While many options exist to improve industrial demand-side energy efficiency, energy management systems (EnMSs)—particularly those aligned with ISO 50001—are proven to drive continuous and meaningful energy performance improvements. Governments leverage these EnMSs in their policies to advance national objectives including enhancing industrial competitiveness and achieving environmental goals. Existing research has focused on the impact of EnMSs at the company level, while comprehensive work on EnMSs in a global policy context is lacking. We seek to close this gap by investigating the extent to which current national policies incorporate the utilization of EnMSs, particularly the ISO 50001 standard. Our paper employs a hybrid approach, combining a literature review and expert interviews across 28 governments representing > 86% of global primary energy consumption. We dissect policy mechanisms, governance levels, underlying motivations, and trends in present EnMS policies. We find that > 96% of the investigated countries include EnMSs within their policy scope; 90% of policies including EnMSs utilize the ISO 50001 standard in some capacity. Primary policy motivations include decarbonization, energy savings for industrial competitiveness, and energy system resilience. We highlight that in the EnMS context, policy mixes—combining economic incentives, regulatory instruments, and information-based approaches—are more effective than standalone measures. Our work provides a novel global overview of governmental EnMS policies, moving beyond whether EnMS should be adopted to focus on how they can be implemented most effectively.

Moreno, Francisco Luis↗
DOE OSTI2020

The quest for improved air quality may push China to continue its CO 2 reduction beyond the Paris Commitment

China is challenged with the simultaneous goals of improving air quality and mitigating climate change. The “Beautiful China” strategy, launched by the Chinese government in 2020, requires that all cities in China attain 35 μg/m 3 or below for annual mean concentration of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) by 2035. Meanwhile, China adopts a portfolio of low-carbon policies to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledged in the Paris Agreement. Previous studies demonstrated the co-benefits to air pollution reduction from implementing low-carbon energy policies. Pathways for China to achieve dual targets of both air quality and CO 2 mitigation, however, have not been comprehensively explored. Here, we couple an integrated assessment model and an air quality model to evaluate air quality in China through 2035 under the NDC scenario and an alternative scenario (Co-Benefit Energy [CBE]) with enhanced low-carbon policies. Results indicate that some Chinese cities cannot meet the PM 2.5 target under the NDC scenario by 2035, even with the strictest end-of-pipe controls. Achieving the air quality target would require further reduction in emissions of multiple air pollutants by 6 to 32%, driving additional 22% reduction in CO 2 emissions relative to the NDC scenario. Results show that the incremental health benefit from improved air quality of CBE exceeds 8 times the additional costs of CO 2 mitigation, attributed particularly to the cost-effective reduction in household PM 2.5 exposure. The additional low-carbon energy polices required for China’s air quality targets would lay an important foundation for its deep decarbonization aligned with the 2 °C global temperature target.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning reduces soft costs for residential solar photovoltaics

Further deployment of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) hinges on the reduction of soft (non-hardware) costs—now larger and more resistant to reductions than hardware costs. The largest portion of these soft costs is the expenses solar companies incur to acquire new customers. In this study, we demonstrate the value of a shift from significance-based methodologies to prediction-oriented models to better identify PV adopters and reduce soft costs. We employ machine learning to predict PV adopters and non-adopters, and compare its prediction performance with logistic regression, the dominant significance-based method in technology adoption studies. Our results show that machine learning substantially enhances adoption prediction performance: The true positive rate of predicting adopters increased from 66 to 87%, and the true negative rate of predicting non-adopters increased from 75 to 88%. We attribute the enhanced performance to complex variable interactions and nonlinear effects incorporated by machine learning. With more accurate predictions, machine learning is able to reduce customer acquisition costs by 15% ($0.07/Watt) and identify new market opportunities for solar companies to expand and diversify their customer bases. Our research methods and findings provide broader implications for the adoption of similar clean energy technologies and related policy challenges such as market growth and energy inequality.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The spread of technological innovations: effects of psychology, culture and policy interventions

Technological innovations drive the evolution of human societies. The success of innovations depends not only on their actual benefits but also on how potential adopters perceive them and how their beliefs are affected by their social and cultural environment. To deepen our understanding of socio-psychological processes affecting the new technology spread, we model the joint dynamics of three interlinked processes: individual learning and mastering the new technology, changes in individual attitudes towards it, and changes in individual adoption decisions. We assume that the new technology can potentially lead to a higher benefit but achieving it requires learning. We posit that individual decision-making process as well as their attitudes are affected by cognitive dissonance and conformity with peers and an external authority. Individuals vary in different psychological characteristics and in their attitudes. We investigate both transient dynamics and long-term equilibria observed in our model. We show that early adopters are usually individuals who are characterized by low cognitive dissonance and low conformity with peers but are sensitive to the effort of an external authority promoting the innovation. We examine the effectiveness of five different intervention strategies aiming to promote the diffusion of a new technology: training individuals, providing subsidies for early adopters, increasing the visibility of peer actions, simplifying the exchange of opinions between people, and increasing the effort of an external authority. We also discuss the effects of culture on the spread of innovations. Finally, we demonstrate that neglecting the cognitive forces and the dynamic nature of individual attitudes can lead to wrong conclusions about adoption of innovations. Our results can be useful in developing more efficient policies aiming to promote the spread of new technologies in different societies, cultures and countries.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Solar Utility Tariff and Revenue Impact Analysis: A Guidebook for International Practitioners

Depending on a range of technical, economic, policy, regulatory, and market-related factors, the adoption of DPV may have a net positive or negative financial impact on utilities and ratepayers. This guidebook provides a methodological approach for quantifying the net financial impact of DPV on utilities (in the form of “net revenue losses”) and ratepayers (in the form of “net tariff impacts”). Written for technical staff at utilities, regulatory bodies, energy ministries, research institutes, and civil society organizations who wish to better understand the financial impacts of DPV in their jurisdiction, this guidebook can be used to inform important decisions regarding DPV compensation, tariff design, and regulatory cost allocations, among other aspects. It is focused exclusively on customer-sited DPV systems and adopts a primarily cost-based (as opposed to an equally valid value-based) perspective to understanding DPV financial impacts. The approach for calculating net revenue losses can be applied in nearly any utility jurisdiction, regardless of institutional arrangements, business models, or regulatory paradigms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Triple Effect Economics: How Do Electric Vehicles, Solar Photovoltaics, and Work-from-Home Transform Household Electricity Cost?

Solutions for deep decarbonization need to be affordable as well as sustainable to garner widespread adoption. The past two decades have seen the introduction of new technologies and paradigms such as electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics (PVs), and increased work-from-home (WFH), which impact a household's overall energy consumption and cost in different ways. However, much attention has not been paid to explore the joint impact these technologies have on a household's electricity cost burden. Leveraging the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), this study presents an integrated model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. National level RECS data revealed that, compared to the baseline (i.e., households that did not own any of these technologies), households that own EVs, PVs, and engage in WFH observed a 13.5% decline in their electricity bills, despite a 25% increase in electricity consumption. The model results indicated that bundled adoption of EVs-PVs reduces electricity costs more significantly for a household, compared to the increased costs imposed by more household members staying at home. This holistic assessment presents an opportunity for decision makers to contextualize the changing energy costs and design effective strategies to foster a sustainable and cost saving mechanism. Policies such as bundled incentivization to motivate co-adoption, education about energy-management strategies, and add-on subsidies to adopt energy-efficient appliances, will not only accelerate decarbonization but increase household financial savings.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Applied Risk Analysis for Guiding Homeland Security Policy

Risk analysis methods may be qualitative, semi-quantitative, or quantitative; adopt probabilistic and statistical theories; and implement concepts from core disciplines including operations research, reliability engineering, systems engineering, and applied mathematics. These methods continue to develop and evolve and have successfully been applied to address various homeland security mission challenges in recent years. The objective of this book is to: 1) highlight the role of risk analysis for informing homeland security policy decisions, and 2) describe case studies from academia, government, and industry that apply risk analysis methods for addressing challenges within each of the DHS missions.

national security, risk assessment, risk managemen↗
DOE OSTI2020

Income Trends among U.S. Residential Rooftop Solar Adopters [Slides]

Berkeley Lab tracks and analyzes solar-adopter demographic characteristics. A central element of this work is an annual report describing income trends of residential solar adopters over time and across geographies. The report is based on household-level income estimates for single-family residential solar adopters across the United States, and is intended to serve as a foundational reference document for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and other researchers interested in demographic trends among residential solar adopters. The report is published with an accompanying interactive data visualization tool that allows users to further explore the underlying data. In addition to the annual report, Berkeley Lab also conducts targeted topical analyses on issues related to solar-adopter demographics and provides direct analytical support to organizations working to expand access to solar energy among low-to-moderate income households.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating China’s Passenger Vehicle Market under the Vehicle Policies of 2021–2023

China is well known for its determination on large-scale vehicle electrification, which currently is mainly driven by fuel economy and electric vehicle policies mixed with the extensive charging infrastructure support and monetary incentives from the government. This study adopted the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model 2020 version, a vehicle policy analysis tool developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in order to systematically quantify the potential impacts of the “Passenger Cars Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation”, which is a revised version released in June 2020 for the timeframe 2021–2023, the so-called dual credit policy (2021–2023). It was found that, under the dual credit policy (2021–2023), the sales of hybrid electric vehicles could reach 0.91 million by the end of 2023, which would increase much faster than they did in 2018–2020. The annual sales share of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) could reach 11.7%, and the PEV stocks could achieve 11.70 million by the end of 2023 if it keeps the expansion to the level of how it was in 2017. In addition, the BEVs with long electric range (such as 400 km) and the plug-in hybrid electric SUVs could be the most popular PEV types.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Farmer characteristics and decision-making: A model for bioenergy crop adoption

We report the commercial development of biofuels and bioproducts depends on whether renewable biomass feedstock is available while not directly competing with the production of food. Farmers are one of the most important stakeholders in the biofuel supply chain and confront a range of uncertainties while entering the bioenergy market. Their decision-making process is extremely complex and rarely purely rational. Modeling farmer behavior requires considering a wide range of individual-level factors, socio-temporal dynamics, institutional settings, and their interactions. These characteristics make agent-based modeling a suitable framework for evaluating such systems. We developed a model to simulate farmer bioenergy crop adoption behavior across a 50-county study region in Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado. The analysis considers adoption decisions for two bioenergy feedstocks, crop residues and energy crops. We examine the influence of individual and farm characteristics, market structure, social networks, and media influence on farmer adoption decisions. Our results indicate that different factors can have varied impacts on the speed of adoption for the crop residues and energy crops. Identifying levers that have the most impact on grower adoption can inform the design of interventions both from policy and private sector standpoints with important implications for the future the bioenergy industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Potential long-term, global effects of enhancing the domestic terrestrial carbon sink in the United States through no-till and cover cropping

Abstract Background Achieving a net zero greenhouse gas United States (US) economy is likely to require both deep sectoral mitigation and additional carbon dioxide removals to offset hard-to-abate emissions. Enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink, through practices such as the adoption of no-till and cover cropping agricultural management, could provide a portion of these required offsets. Changing domestic agricultural practices to optimize carbon content, however, might reduce or shift US agricultural commodity outputs and exports, with potential implications on respective global markets and land use patterns. Here, we use an integrated energy-economy-land-climate model to comprehensively assess the global land, trade, and emissions impacts of an adoption of domestic no-till farming and cover cropping practices based on carbon pricing. Results We find that the adoption of these practices varies depending on which aspects of terrestrial carbon are valued. Valuation of all terrestrial carbon resulted in afforestation at the expense of domestic agricultural production. In contrast, a policy valuing soil carbon in agricultural systems specifically indicates strong adoption of no-till and cover cropping for key crops. Conclusions We conclude that under targeted terrestrial carbon incentives, adoption of no-till and cover cropping practices in the US could increase the terrestrial carbon sink with limited effects on crop availability for food and fodder markets. Future work should consider integrated assessment modeling of non-CO 2 greenhouse gas impacts, above ground carbon storage changes, and capital and operating cost considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Triple Effect: Unraveling the Joint Impact of Electric Vehicles, Solar Panels, and Work-From-Home Patterns on Household Electricity Costs

Solutions for deep decarbonization need to be sustainable as well as affordable to garner widespread adoption. The past two decades have seen the introduction of new technologies and paradigms such as electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics (PVs), and increased work-from-home (WFH), which impact the overall energy consumption and cost of a household in different ways. However, much attention has not been paid to explore the joint impact these technologies have on a household's energy (electricity cost) burden. Leveraging Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), this study presents an integrated model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. RECS data revealed that, compared to the baseline (i.e., households that did not own any of these technologies), households that own EVs, PVs, and engage in WFH observed a 13.5% decline in their electricity bills, despite a 25% increase in electricity consumption. The model results indicated that bundled adoption of EVs-PVs reduces electricity costs more significantly for a household, compared to the increased costs imposed by more household members staying at home. This holistic assessment presents an opportunity for decision makers to contextualize the changing energy costs and design effective strategies to foster a sustainable and affordable future. Policies such as bundled incentivization to motivate co-adoption, education about energy-management strategies, and add-on subsidies to adopt energy-efficient appliances, will not only accelerate decarbonization but increase household financial savings.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Overview of Electric Vehicle Load Modeling Strategies for Grid Integration Studies

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has emerged as a solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, which has motivated the implementation of public policies to promote their use in several countries. However, the high adoption of EVs poses challenges for the electricity sector, as it would imply an increase in energy demand and possible impacts on the power quality (PQ) of the power grid. Therefore, it is important to conduct EV integration studies in the power grid to determine the amount that can be incorporated without causing problems and identify the areas of the power sector that will require reinforcements. Accurate EV load patterns are required for this type of study that, through mathematical modeling, reflect both the dynamic behavior and the factors that influence the decision to recharge EVs. This article aims to present an overview of EVs, examine the different factors considered in the literature for modeling EV load patterns, and review modeling methods. EV load modeling methods are classified into deterministic, statistical, and machine learning. The article shows that each modeling method has its advantages, disadvantages, and data requirements, ranging from simple load modeling to more accurate models requiring large datasets.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cost-Benefit Analysis For Indonesia Building Sector: Whole-Building Cooling Solutions

The Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative Collaborative Work Program with the Government of Indonesia (GoI) includes technical assistance and investment mobilization facilitation to accelerate deployment of energy efficiency technologies and solutions for the building sector. A February 2023 U.S.–Indonesia Joint Workshop on Decarbonizing the Building Sector yielded a NZW Indonesia Building Decarbonization Working Group (NZW IBDWG) with four sub-working groups (SWG): SWG-A National Center, SWG-B Capacity Building, SWG-C Investment and Financing, and SWG-D Pilot Projects. Technical analysis of whole-building cooling solutions for tropical climates of Indonesia was conducted by SWG-A to quantify energy savings, carbon dioxide reductions, and comfort improvements offered by 12 passive or low-energy cooling strategies: ceiling fans with and without thermostat setbacks; cool roofs; cool walls; exterior awnings; exterior shades; interior shades; insulated roofs; insulated walls; low-e windows; solar window films; and natural ventilation. Leveraging the results from SWG-A, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted by SWG-C to assess the consumer and national costs and impacts associated with these 12 cooling solutions. The evaluation involved estimating life-cycle costs (LCC), payback period (PBP), net present values (NPV), annual electricity burden change for low-income households, and reduced national annual power-sector generation demand by 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060. This evaluation can help guide Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) investments in policies and programs to advance research, development, deployment, and commercial adoption (RDDCA) of efficient residential building sector cooling technologies and solutions in Indonesia. Four key energy conservation measures (ECM) have been identified to reduce air-conditioning (AC) energy demand in single-family housing in Indonesia: ceiling fan with temperature setback (to 28.1 °Celcius from 25 °C); insulated walls; insulated roof; and cool roof. This study found that low-income households with AC installations in Indonesia currently face a high energy cost burden of approximately 10%. However, by implementing a ceiling fan with temperature setback, this burden could decrease to 2.5% today and further reduce to 1.3% by the year 2060. The PBP for a ceiling fan with temperature setback is one year, indicating one of the lowest LCC and best NPV. In the planned upcoming phase of CBA, a series of building cooling improvement scenarios can be further defined, incorporating more than one ECM in combination with socio-economic factors evaluated in the initial CBA phase. Additionally, the analysis of ECM effects in multifamily housing can be expanded. This broader national analysis aims to encompass a holistic and comprehensive system-level perspective, including factors such as avoided power sector infrastructure investments, domestic job creation, domestic manufacturing job creation, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗