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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting tropospheric composition and climate responses to US air pollution controls in the context of internally-arising variability

Since the 1970s, air pollutant emissions controls in the United States (US) have lowered concentrations of ozone (O 3 ) and aerosols, which have opposing radiative effects on surface temperature. Using a pair of initial-condition ensembles generated by a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, we simulate the “world avoided” by US air pollution controls. In this counterfactual world, we find tropospheric column O 3 increases, robust to natural internal variability, extending across the Northern Hemisphere. Robust aerosol increases, dominated by sulfate, remain localized near the US. Wintertime Northwest Atlantic cloud droplet number concentration is particularly sensitive to US aerosol. While an ensemble mean US surface cooling signal (−0.4 °C) implies that aerosol-driven cooling prevails over any O 3 -induced warming, we find that large regional internal variability will confound its detection in any single transient realization. Larger signal-to-noise ratios for composition versus climate variables underscore the greater detectability of emissions-driven changes in tropospheric composition compared to their associated climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate and air pollution impacts of generating biopower from forest management residues in California

California faces crisis conditions on its forested landscapes. A century of aggressive logging and fire suppression in combination with conditions exacerbated by climate change have created an ongoing ecological, economic, and public health emergency. Between commercial harvests on California’s working forestlands and the increasing number of acres the state treats each year for fire risk reduction and carbon sequestration, California forests generate millions of tons of woody residues annually—residues that are typically left or burned in the field. State policymakers have turned to biomass electricity generation as a key market for woody biomass in the hope that it can support sustainable forest management activities while also providing low-carbon renewable electricity. However, open questions surrounding the climate and air pollution performance of electricity generation from woody biomass have made it difficult to determine how best to manage the risks and opportunities posed by forest residues. The California Biomass Residue Emissions Characterization (C-BREC) model offers a spatially-explicit life cycle assessment framework to rigorously and transparently establish the climate and air pollution impacts of biopower from forest residues in California under current conditions. The C-BREC model characterizes the variable emissions from different biomass supply chains as well as the counterfactual emissions from prescribed burn, wildfire, and decay avoided by residue mobilization. We find that the life cycle ‘carbon footprint’ of biopower from woody residues generated by recent forest treatments in California ranges widely—from comparable with solar photovoltaic on the low end to comparable with natural gas on the high end. This variation stems largely from the heterogeneity in the fire and decay conditions these residues would encounter if left in the field, with utilization of residue that would otherwise have been burned in place offering the best climate and air quality performance. California’s energy and forest management policies should account for this variation to ensure desired climate benefits are achieved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian constraints on the origin and geology of exoplanetary material using a population of externally polluted white dwarfs

ABSTRACT White dwarfs that have accreted planetary bodies are a powerful probe of the bulk composition of exoplanetary material. In this paper, we present a Bayesian model to explain the abundances observed in the atmospheres of 202 DZ white dwarfs by considering the heating, geochemical differentiation, and collisional processes experienced by the planetary bodies accreted, as well as gravitational sinking. The majority (>60 per cent) of systems are consistent with the accretion of primitive material. We attribute the small spread in refractory abundances observed to a similar spread in the initial planet-forming material, as seen in the compositions of nearby stars. A range in Na abundances in the pollutant material is attributed to a range in formation temperatures from below 1000 K to higher than 1400 K, suggesting that pollutant material arrives in white dwarf atmospheres from a variety of radial locations. We also find that Solar System-like differentiation is common place in exoplanetary systems. Extreme siderophile (Fe, Ni, or Cr) abundances in eight systems require the accretion of a core-rich fragment of a larger differentiated body to at least a 3σ significance, whilst one system shows evidence that it accreted a crust-rich fragment. In systems where the abundances suggest that accretion has finished (13/202), the total mass accreted can be calculated. The 13 systems are estimated to have accreted masses ranging from the mass of the Moon to half that of Vesta. Our analysis suggests that accretion continues for 11 Myrs on average.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spectral analysis of ultra-cool white dwarfs polluted by planetary debris

ABSTRACT We identify two ultra-cool (${T_\mathrm{eff}}\lt 4000$ K) metal-polluted (DZ) white dwarfs WD J2147−4035 and WD J1922+0233 as the coolest and second coolest DZ stars known to date with ${T_\mathrm{eff}}\approx 3050$ K and ${T_\mathrm{eff}}\approx 3340$ K, respectively. Strong atmospheric collision-induced absorption (CIA) causes the suppression of red optical and infrared flux in WD J1922+0233, resulting in an unusually blue colour given its low temperature. WD J2147−4035 has moderate infrared CIA yet has the reddest optical colours known for a DZ white dwarf. Microphysics improvements to the non-ideal effects and CIA opacities in our model atmosphere code yields reasonable solutions to observations of these ultra-cool stars. WD J2147−4035 has a cooling age of over 10 Gyr which is the largest known for a DZ white dwarf, whereas WD J1922+0233 is slightly younger with a cooling age of 9 Gyr. Galactic kinematics calculations from precise Gaia EDR3 astrometry reveal these ultra-cool DZ stars as likely members of the Galactic disc thus they could be pivotal objects in future studies constraining an upper age limit for the disc of the Milky Way. We present intermediate-resolution spectroscopy for both objects, which provides the first spectroscopic observations of WD J2147−4035. Detections of sodium and potassium are made in both white dwarfs, in addition to calcium in WD J1922+0233 and lithium in WD J2147−4035. We identify the magnetic nature of WD J2147−4035 from Zeeman splitting in the lithium line and also make a tentative detection of carbon, so we classify this star as DZQH. WD J1922+0233 likely accreted planetary crust debris, while the debris composition that polluted WD J2147−4035 remains unconstrained.

Elms, Abbigail K. (ORCID:0000000176667416)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surface Texture of Macroplastic Pollution in Streams Alters the Physical Structure and Diversity of Biofilm Communities

ABSTRACT Biofilms can develop on nearly any surface, and in aquatic ecosystems they are essential components of biogeochemical cycles and food webs. Plastic waste in waterways is a new type of surface for biofilm colonisation. To analyse the influence of plastic pollution on the development and diversity of microbial freshwater biofilms that colonised them, we incubated 388 cm 2 veneers of high‐density polyethylene (HDPE) with two veneer textures, smooth and rough, and tulip tree wood ( Liriodendron tulipifera ), in three rural headwater streams at the Savannah River Site (Aiken, SC, USA). We collected biofilms from veneers after 14, 28 and 56 days of incubation and analysed 16S rRNA genes and biofilm properties. We found that plastic negatively affected species richness of biofilms compared with wood, but that evenness was greatest on rough textured HDPE. Beta diversity was primarily influenced by stream site. Beta diversity differed more between wood and plastic veneers than with plastic surface texture and became more different over time. Wood had nine times more biomass than rough HDPE and 40 times more biomass than smooth HDPE. Given the projected increase of macroplastic pollution in aquatic ecosystems, our findings emphasise the need to further understand its effects on biofilm characteristics.

Lopez Avila, Fabiola [Odum School of Ecology Unive↗
DOE OSTI2022

Association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and COVID-19 severity: a prospective cohort study

The tremendous global health burden related to COVID-19 means that identifying determinants of COVID-19 severity is important for prevention and intervention. We aimed to explore long-term exposure to ambient air pollution as a potential contributor to COVID-19 severity, given its known impact on the respiratory system. Methods: We used a cohort of all people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, aged 20 years and older and not residing in a long-term care facility in Ontario, Canada, during 2020. We evaluated the association between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ground-level ozone (O 3 ), and risk of COVID-19-related hospital admission, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death. We ascertained individuals’ longterm exposures to each air pollutant based on their residence from 2015 to 2019. We used logistic regression and adjusted for confounders and selection bias using various individual and contextual covariates obtained through data linkage. Results: Among the 151105 people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ontario in 2020, we observed 8630 hospital admissions, 1912 ICU admissions and 2137 deaths related to COVID-19. For each interquartile range increase in exposure to PM 2.5 (1.70 µg/m 3 ), we estimated odds ratios of 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.12), 1.09 (95% CI 0.98–1.21) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.90–1.11) for hospital admission, ICU admission and death, respectively. Estimates were smaller for NO 2 . We also estimated odds ratios of 1.15 (95% CI 1.06–1.23), 1.30 (95% CI 1.12–1.50) and 1.18 (95% CI 1.02–1.36) per interquartile range increase of 5.14 ppb in O 3 for hospital admission, ICU admission and death, respectively.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan for the Facility LAMP Project

A site-specific Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) is needed for most construction activities/projects that disturb one (1) acre or more of land to meet the requirements of the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) General Permit for Storm Water Discharges Associated With Construction and Land Disturbance Activities (General Permit) issued by the State Water Resources Control Board (State Board). This Order No. 2009-0009- DWQ was adopted by the State Board on September 2, 2009 and became effective July 1, 2010

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for the Limited Area, Multi-Purpose (LAMP) High Bay Laboratory

Kier + Wright, as Qualified SWPPP Developer (QSD), puts forth this Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for the Limited Area, Multi-Purpose (LAMP) High Bay Laboratory facility (Project) located at Sandia National Laboratories, 7011 East Avenue, CA. The property is owned by the U.S. Department of Energy, and managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC. The project proposes converting an asphalt parking lot into a new high bay machine shop building and a low bay office building. Per the California State Water Resources Control Board’s (California State Water Board) Construction General Permit (CGP), a SWPPP is required when 1 acre or more of land is disturbed. The project site area of 1.6 acres exceeds the minimum acreage threshold of 1 acre and therefore requires SWPPP implementation. QSD has determined the sediment risk for this project, based on soil type at the site and starting and ending dates of construction, to be low (Section 3.4.1 and Appendix B). Receiving water for this project is the Arroyo Seco. QSD has determined the Arroyo Seco to be a high-risk receiving water because it has the three beneficial uses of “spawn”, “cold”, and “migratory” (Sections 3.3 and 3.4.2 and Appendix B). QSD has determined the overall risk level for the site to be Risk Level 2, based on a combination of low sediment risk and high receiving water risk (Appendix B). As such, QSD has delineated a variety of Best Management Practices (BMPs) to be employed during project construction to reduce or eliminate pollutants in stormwater runoff or any other discharges from the Project site. In addition to site-specific BMPs, this SWPPP report provides instruction for on site monitoring. Electronic copies of required documentation such as inspection reports, REAPs, annual report documentation, etc. shall be submitted to NTESS Sandia Delegated Representative via Newforma.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation-Based Analysis of Impacts of Reduced Envelope and Duct Air Leakage on Indoor Air Pollutant Concentrations in Occupied Manufactured Homes

This report presents a simulation-based analysis that estimates the magnitude of indoor air pollutant concentration changes that could result from the proposed energy conservation standards. The analysis was conducted for a 1568 ft 2 , double-wide MH with variations in heating and cooling equipment (either furnace + air conditioner or heat pump) and various types of whole-house mechanical ventilation (continuous exhaust fan or central fan integrated supply), in three locations with varying climate conditions: Chicago IL, Fresno, CA; and Houston TX. The simulations tracked four air pollutants that can reach levels exceeding established safe target levels in homes: acrolein, formaldehyde, fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). The simulations considered acrolein and formaldehyde emitted from continuous indoor sources; acrolein, NO 2 and PM 2.5 from cooking; PM 2.5 from dispersed occupant activities; and NO 2 and PM 2.5 from outdoors, using historical data to identify typical levels. The impacts in homes operating or not operating whole-house mechanical ventilation equipment, kitchen and bath exhaust fans, and window opening as ventilation approaches were examined.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Idaho National Laboratory CY 2021 National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants Analysis, Methodology and Results for Radionuclides

This report details calculations of potential dose at public receptor locations surrounding the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site boundary, and INL in-town facilities, from radionuclides reported to be in use and potentially emitted from INL facilities during calendar year (CY) 2021. All calculations were performed in accordance with the requirements in Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Title 40, “Protection of the Environment,” Part 61, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs),” Subpart H, “National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities” (40 CFR 61, Subpart H). Modeling methodology, model input parameters, and contribution to dose by facility, source, and radionuclide at the maximally exposed individual (MEI) location are also discussed. The information in this report supports the “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants - Calendar Year 2021 INL Report for Radionuclides” (INL 2022). In CY 2021, the estimated annual potential dose at the INL Site MEI location was 6.67E-02 mrem/yr, up slightly from the previous year, but far less than the regulatory standard of 10 mrem/yr (CFR 40 Part 61, Subpart H). Approximately 97% of the total dose to the INL Site MEI originated from MFC sources. Emissions from INL in-town facilities resulted in an estimated annual potential dose of 6.21E-03 mrem/yr to the MEI, down 40% from the CY 2020 estimated dose. Year-to-year variations in estimated annual dose can be attributed to adjustments in laboratory operations, changes to facility infrastructure, and variation in meteorological conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Idaho National Laboratory CY 2022 National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants Analysis, Methodology and Results for Radionuclides

This report details calculations of potential dose at public receptor locations surrounding the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site boundary, and INL in-town facilities, from radionuclides reported to be in use and potentially emitted from INL facilities during calendar year (CY) 2022. All calculations were performed in accordance with the requirements in Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Title 40, “Protection of the Environment,” Part 61, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs),” Subpart H, “National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities” (40 CFR 61, Subpart H). Modeling methodology, model input parameters, and contribution to dose by facility, source, and radionuclide at the maximally exposed individual (MEI) location are also discussed. The information in this report supports the “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants – Calendar Year 2022 INL Report for Radionuclides” (DOE-ID 2023). In CY 2022, the estimated annual potential dose at the INL Site MEI location was 1.78E-02 mrem/yr, down from the previous year, and far less than the regulatory standard of 10 mrem/yr (CFR 40 Part 61, Subpart H). Approximately 87% of the total dose to the INL Site MEI originated from Materials and Fuels Complex sources. Emissions from INL in-town facilities resulted in an estimated annual potential dose of 4.03E-03 mrem/yr to the MEI, down 35% from the CY 2021 estimated dose. Year-to-year variations in estimated annual dose can be attributed to adjustments in laboratory operations, changes to facility infrastructure, and variation in meteorological conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for Site Wide Landscaping Project

Kier + Wright, as Qualified SWPPP Developer (QSD), puts forth this Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) for the SNL/CA Site Landscaping Project at Sandia National Laboratories/California (SNL/CA), 7011 East Avenue, Livermore, California (SNL/CA). The property is owned by the U.S. Department of Energy, and managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia (NTESS), LLC. The project proposes landscape improvements throughout SNL/CA. Per the California State Water Resources Control Board’s (California State Water Board) Construction General Permit (CGP), a SWPPP is required when 1 acre or more of land is disturbed. The project site area exceeds the minimum acreage threshold of 1 acre and therefore requires SWPPP implementation. QSD has determined the sediment risk for this project, based on soil type at the site and starting and ending dates of construction, to be low (Section 3.4.1 and Appendix B). Receiving water for this project is the Arroyo Seco. QSD has determined the Arroyo Seco to be a high-risk receiving water because it has the three beneficial uses of “spawn”, “cold”, and “migratory” (Sections 3.3 and 3.4.2 and Appendix B). QSD has determined the overall risk level for the site to be Risk Level 2, based on a combination of low sediment risk and high receiving water risk (Appendix B). As such, QSD has delineated a variety of Best Management Practices (BMPs) to be employed during project construction to reduce or eliminate pollutants in stormwater runoff or any other discharges from the Project site. In addition to site-specific BMPs, this SWPPP report provides instruction for on site monitoring. Electronic copies of required documentation such as inspection reports, REAPs, annual report documentation, etc. shall be submitted to NTESS Sandia Delegated Representative via Newforma.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Idaho National Laboratory CY 2025 National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants Analysis, Methodology, and Results for Radionuclides

This report details calculations of potential dose—at public receptor locations surrounding the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site boundary and INL in-town facilities—from radionuclides reported to be in use and potentially emitted from INL facilities during calendar year (CY) 2025. All calculations were performed in accordance with the requirements of Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Title 40, “Protection of the Environment,” Part 61, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs),” Subpart H, “National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other than Radon from Department of Energy Facilities” (40 CFR 61, Subpart H). Modeling methodology, model-input parameters, and contribution to dose by facility, source, and radionuclide at the maximally exposed individual (MEI) location are also discussed. The information in this report supports the “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants—Calendar Year 2025 INL Report for Radionuclides” (DOE-ID 2026). During CY 2025, the estimated annual potential dose at the INL Site MEI location was 2.45E-02 mrem/yr, up from the previous year, but remaining far less than the regulatory standard of 10 mrem/yr (CFR 40 Part 61, Subpart H). Approximately 92% of the total dose to the INL Site MEI originated from Materials and Fuels Complex sources. Emissions from INL in-town facilities resulted in an estimated annual potential dose of 4.50E-03 mrem/yr to the MEI, down slightly from the CY 2024 estimated dose. Year-to-year variations in estimated annual dose can be attributed to adjustments in laboratory operations, changes to facility infrastructure, and variation in meteorological conditions.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Hydrogen on Methane and Pollutant Emissions over Three-Way Catalysts with Natural Gas–Hydrogen Blends

Blending natural gas (NG) with hydrogen (H₂) can improve combustion and engine performance while potentially facilitating the catalytic conversion of methane and other pollutants, resulting in cleaner tailpipe emissions. This study evaluates the impact of H2 on the conversion of methane, CO, and NOx emissions on a commercial three-way catalyst (TWC) in a flow reactor using synthetic gas mixtures that simulate stoichiometric engine exhausts with NG or NG+H₂ combustion. The work examines whether, and how, the additional amount of H₂ in the exhaust stream affects the conversion efficiency of methane and other pollutants. Experiments were conducted with both degreened and aged catalysts under controlled conditions, systematically varying temperature, the air-to-fuel equivalence ratio (λ), and λ modulation. Test conditions covered λ values from 0.996 to 1.000 to represent nominally stoichiometric engine operation with different λ modulation amplitudes, as well as a range of temperatures to inform control strategies for effective CH₄, CO, and NOₓ reduction. Overall, the results show that hydrogen addition significantly improves the conversion efficiency of CH₄ and NOₓ, particularly at temperatures below 500 °C. More significantly, this study highlights that exhaust gas composition, operating temperature, λ management, and the oxygen storage capacity of the TWC all play major roles in affecting the tailpipe emissions from NG and NG+H₂ combustion.

Prikhodko, Vitaly [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000244685836)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased importance of aerosol–cloud interactions for surface PM 2.5 pollution relative to aerosol–radiation interactions in China with the anthropogenic emission reductions

Surface fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution can be enhanced by feedback processes induced by aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). Many previous studies have reported enhanced PM 2.5 concentrations induced by ARIs and ACIs for episodic events in China. However, few studies have examined the changes in the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancements over a long period, though the anthropogenic emissions have changed substantially in the last decade. In this study, we quantify the ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 changes for 2013–2021 under different meteorology and emission scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), and we investigate the driving factors behind the changes. Our results show that, in January 2013, when China suffered from the worst PM 2.5 pollution, the PM 2.5 enhancement induced by ARIs in eastern China (5.59 µg m −3 ) was larger than that induced by ACIs (3.96 µg m −3 ). However, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement showed a significantly smaller decrease ratio (51 %) than the ARI-induced enhancement (75 %) for 2013–2021, making ACIs more important for enhancing PM 2.5 concentrations in January 2021. Our analyses suggest that the anthropogenic emission reductions played a key role in this shift. Owing to only anthropogenic emission reductions, the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement decreased by 43 % in January, which was lower than the decrease ratio of the ARI-induced enhancement (57 %). The relative change in ARI- and ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement in July was similar to the pattern observed in January, caused by anthropogenic emission reductions. The primary reason for this phenomenon is that the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 for 2013–2021 caused a disproportionately small decrease in the liquid water path (LWP) and an increase in the cloud effective radius (Re) under the condition of high PM 2.5 concentrations. Therefore, the surface solar radiation attenuation (and, hence, the boundary layer height reduction) caused by ACIs decreased slower than that caused by ARIs. Moreover, the lower decrease ratio of the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement was dominated by the lower decrease ratio of ACI-induced secondary PM 2.5 component enhancement, which was additionally caused by the smaller decrease ratio of the air temperature reduction and the relative humidity (RH) increase. Our findings indicate that, with the decrease in ambient PM 2.5 , the ACI-induced PM 2.5 enhancement inevitably becomes more important. This needs to be considered in the formulation of control policies to meet the national PM 2.5 air quality standard.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Environmental exposure to industrial air pollution is associated with decreased male fertility

Objective: To understand how chronic exposure to industrial air pollution is associated with male fertility through semen parameters. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Subjects: Men in the Subfertility, Health and Assisted Reproduction cohort who underwent a semen analysis 2005-2017 with ≥1 measured semen parameter (N=21,563). Intervention(s): Residential histories for each man were constructed using locations from administrative records linked through the Utah Population Database. Industrial facilities with air emissions of nine endocrine disrupting compound chemical classes were identified from the Environmental Protection Agency Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators microdata. Chemical levels were linked with residential histories for the 5 years prior to each semen analysis. Main Outcome Measures: Semen analyses were classified as azoospermic or oligozoospermic (< 15 M/mL) using World Health Organization cutoffs for concentration. Bulk semen parameters such as concentration, total count, ejaculate volume, total motility, total motile count, and total progressive motile count were also measured. Multivariable regression models with robust standard errors were used to associate exposure quartiles for each of the nine chemical classes with each semen parameter, adjusting for age, race, and ethnicity, as well as neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage. Results: After adjustment for demographic covariates, several chemical classes were associated with azoospermia and decreased total motility and volume. For exposure in the 4th relative to 1st quartile, significant associations were observed for acrylonitrile (β total motility = -0.87 pp), aromatic hydrocarbons (odds ratio [OR]azoospermia = 1.53; β volume = -0.14 mL), dioxins (OR azoospermia = 1.31; β volume = -0.09 mL; β total motility = -2.65 pp), heavy metals (β total motility = -2.78pp), organic solvents (OR azoospermia = 1.75; β volume = -0.10 mL), organochlorines (OR azoospermia = 2.09; β volume = -0.12 mL), phthalates (OR azoospermia = 1.44; β volume = -0.09 mL; β total motility = -1.21 pp), and silver particles (OR azoospermia = 1.64; β volume = -0.11 mL). All semen parameters significantly decreased with increasing socioeconomic disadvantage. Men who lived in the most disadvantaged areas had concentration, volume, and total motility of 6.70 M/mL, 0.13 mL, and 1.79 pp lower, respectively. Count, motile count, and total progressive motile count all decreased by 30–34 M.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian modeling of traffic-related air pollutants: A case study of urban transportation and air quality dynamics in Columbia, South Carolina

Traffic emissions significantly impact near-road air quality and public health. This research applies a Bayesian modeling framework to investigate these impacts using high-resolution traffic and air pollutant data from an urban corridor in Columbia, South Carolina. Despite a data collection period truncated by the COVID-19 lockdown, the Bayesian approach successfully identified significant predictors and quantified model uncertainty. Employing Bayesian Model Selection and Averaging enhanced prediction accuracy and evaluated model uncertainty. Findings indicate that higher temperatures and increased moisture levels elevate particulate matter (PM 1.0 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) concentrations, while traffic speed significantly affects nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels. Specifically, higher average traffic speeds (indicative of smoother flow) correspond to lower NO 2 concentrations, suggesting that less congested conditions reduce NO 2 emissions. This study highlights the robustness of Bayesian methods for generating reliable air quality insights even under data-constrained conditions. The findings underscore the importance of traffic flow management (e.g., reducing congestion) for mitigating near-road NO 2 exposure and provide a basis for developing targeted public health strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗