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DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating disease surveillance strategies for early outbreak detection in contact networks with varying community structure

Disease surveillance systems allow public health agencies to respond to emerging diseases before they become widespread. Developing such systems requires identifying optimal ways to monitor in the context of an epidemic outbreak; this problem is known as sensor selection. Contact networks represent the dynamics of interaction in a population and are used to model how a disease spreads in a population and to explore strategies of sensor selection. We evaluated five sensor selection strategies on their ability to provide an early warning of a COVID-like outbreak in synthetic contact networks encapsulated in four network scenarios. Three of these scenarios assessed different aspects of community structure. The fourth scenario employed a contact network representing the population and interactions of 6.8 million people in New York City, constructed from an agent-based simulation using census and transportation data. This scenario exemplifies how sensor selection strategies may perform in a real-world, urban context. Our findings suggest that the choice of the optimal strategy depends heavily on the community structure of the network. Strategies that select highly connected nodes or maximize network coverage are the optimal surveillance strategy for outbreak detection in many network community structures. However, a naive implementation of these strategies may fail to provide an early warning at all—including in the New York City scenario. Moreover, these methods are impractical for real-world use as they require knowledge of the underlying contact network. Instead, a selection strategy that starts with a set of random nodes and then performs a random walk through a chain of neighbors reliably provides early warnings without requiring prior knowledge of the network. We find this method, called “random chain”, to be the most pragmatic for implementation in a real-world disease surveillance context.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Stochastic Gause Predator-Prey model: Noise-induced extinctions and invariance

We consider the Gause predator-prey with general bounded or sub‑linear functional responses, – which includes those of Holling types Ⅰ–Ⅳ. – and multiplicative Gaussian noise. In contrast to previous studies, the prey in our model follows logistic dynamics while the predator's population is solely regulated by consumption of the prey. To ensure well-posedeness, we derive explicit Lyapunov‐type criteria ensuring global positivity and moment boundedness of solutions. We find conditions for noise‑induced extinctions, proving that stochasticity can drive either population to collapse even when the deterministic analogue predicts stable coexistence. In the case when the predator becomes extinct, we establish a limiting distribution for the predator's population. Last, for functional responses of Holling type Ⅰ, we provide sufficient conditions on the intensity of the noise for the existence and uniqueness of a stationary distribution.

Gause model↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient Scalable Contact Network Generation from Population Data

Modeling the contacts among a population is critical to understanding the dynamics of a disease outbreak. Contact networks, where nodes are individuals and edges are contacts among them, are used to represent these complex individual-level interactions. In this work, we are given the daily activity schedules of an urban population that represent the activity location and time of individuals in a population during a single twenty four hour period over multiple days. Using collocation to determine contact between individuals, our goal is to extract hourly contact networks from large-scale activity data. We improve upon the existing adjacency matrix-based method by implementing our custom sparse matrix multiplication algorithm. Starting with a Python implementation, we achieve a 1600x speed up in the computation with a fast custom designed sparse matrix multiplier algorithm implemented in the C++ language. This work is central to future parallel designs of the problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

DNA viruses from different stages of a wastewater treatment plant in southwest Ohio

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) house diverse populations of microbial communities that are dynamic across treatment stages. Although viruses, especially non-pathogenic ones are relatively less studied compared to their bacterial counterparts, they are equally important players in WWTP microbiomes. In this study, we sampled influent, activated sludge, and effluent stages of a WWTP in southwest Ohio to sequence their viral population using multiple displacement amplification (MDA) and metagenomic approaches. We recovered 1003 viral genomes, the majority of which were ssDNA (single-stranded DNA) viruses that formed distinct clusters representing novel species and phylogenetic groups not closely related to known human gut or terrestrial viruses. Additionally, tracking viruses across treatment stages showed several persisted across multiple treatment stages. These results suggest that further studies are needed to understand the persistence of viral populations, particularly non-pathogenic ones, across different stages of WWTPs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Too dim, too bright, and just right: Systems analysis of the Chlamydomonas diurnal program under limiting and excess light

Photosynthetic organisms coordinate their metabolism and growth with diurnal light, which can range in intensity from limiting to excessive. Little is known about how light intensity impacts the diurnal program in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, or how diurnal rhythms in gene expression and metabolism shape photoprotective responses at different times of day. To address these questions, we performed a systems analysis of synchronized Chlamydomonas populations acclimated to low, moderate, and high diurnal light. Transcriptomic and proteomic data revealed that the Chlamydomonas rhythmic gene expression program is resilient to limiting and excess light: genome-wide, waves of transcripts, and proteins peak at the same times in populations acclimated to stressful light intensities as in populations acclimated to moderate light. Yet, diurnal photoacclimation gives rise to hundreds of gene expression changes, even at night. Time course measurements of photosynthetic efficiency and pigments responsive to excess light showed that high light-acclimated cells partially overcome photodamage in the latter half of the day prior to cell division. Although gene expression and photodamage are dynamic over the diurnal cycle, Chlamydomonas populations acclimated to low and high diurnal light maintain altered photosystem abundance, thylakoid architecture, and non-photochemical quenching capacity through the night phase. This suggests that cells remember or anticipate the light intensities that they have typically encountered during the day. The integrated data constitute an excellent resource for understanding photoacclimation in eukaryotes under environmentally relevant conditions.

Dupuis, Sunnyjoy↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Hendra virus in Australia reveal stable maintenance of diverse viral clades among Pteropus bats

Hendra virus (HeV) was discovered in 1994 in Australia. Limited genomic data have hindered comprehensive understanding of HeV’s evolutionary dynamics. Here, in this work, we recovered 48 HeV genomes from bats and 9 from horses from Australia between 2016 and 2020, revealing four distinct clades. Each clade was distributed over a large spatial area with multiple clades co-circulating within a single bat roost on the same day and over consecutive years. The diversity and temporal stability of co-circulating clades suggest that viral dynamics are driven by episodic shedding of existing lineages maintained at the population level, rather than immune-driven strain-replacement dynamics. HeV isolates of different clades displayed variation in phenotypic properties but minimal antigenic differences. We provide an overview of evolutionary dynamics, phenotypic properties and assessment of countermeasures for HeV, and provide insights into the processes that maintain virus diversity in bats and influence the potential for viral emergence.

genetic variation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Field-driven ion pairing dynamics in concentrated electrolytes

Here, we investigate ion pairing dynamics in electrolytes driven far from equilibrium using molecular simulations and nonequilibrium rate theory. Focusing on 0.5M LiPF 6 in water and acetonitrile under uniform electric fields, we compute transition path theory observables, including reactive fluxes and mean first-passage times of ion pairing. Moreover, we introduce a dynamical proxy of free-ion population, where its field-induced change is strongly correlated with the nonlinear enhancement of conductivity, yielding an increase of 40% at 50 mV/Å in acetonitrile, compared to that of less than 10% in aqueous electrolytes. Further kinetic analysis elucidates that Onsager’s classical theory substantially overestimates field-induced enhancement of ion pair dissociation in molecular electrolytes. This discrepancy arises from solvent-mediated dynamical pathways and field-induced dielectric decrement that suppress ion pair dissociation within explicit solvents, highlighting that a faithful description of molecular details is essential. Our results provide a molecular interpretation of nonlinear electrolyte transport beyond continuum theories and establish a general framework for quantifying nonequilibrium reaction kinetics in condensed phase systems.

Moon, Seokjin [University of California, Berkeley,↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tracking dissociation pathways of nitrobenzene via mega-electron-volt ultrafast electron diffraction

As the simplest nitroaromatic compound, nitrobenzene is an interesting model system to explore the rich photochemistry of nitroaromatic compounds. Previous investigations of nitrobenzene's photochemical dynamics have probed structural and electronic properties. These investigations paint, at times, a convoluted and sometimes contradictory description of the photochemical landscape. Here, we investigate the ultrafast dynamics of nitrobenzene triggered by photoexcitation at 267 nm for the first time using a structural probe with femtosecond time resolution. Our probe complements previous measurements of nitrobenzene's electronic structure evolution and aids in determining the photochemical dynamics with less ambiguity. We employ megaelectronvolt ultrafast electron diffraction to follow nitrobenzene's structural evolution within the first 5 ps after photoexcitation. We observe ground state recovery within 160 ± 60 fs through nonadiabatic dynamics. Based on comparisons of the experimental signal with molecular dynamics simulations, we exclude a significant population of the triplet manifold. Furthermore, we do not observe fragmentation of nitrobenzene within the investigated time window, which indicates that previously observed photofragmentation reactions take place in the vibrationally 'hot' ground state on timescales considerably beyond 5 ps.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mean-Field Ring Polymer Rates Using a Population Dividing Surface

Mean-field Ring Polymer Molecular Dynamics (MF-RPMD) offers a computationally efficient method for the simulation of reaction rates in multi-level systems. Previous work has established that, to model a nonadiabatic state-to-state reaction accurately, the dividing surface must be chosen to explicitly sample kinked ring polymer configurations where at least one bead is in a different electronic state than the others. Building on this, we introduce a population difference coordinate and a kink-constrained dividing surface, and we test the accuracy of the resulting mean-field rate theory on a series of bilinear coupling model systems. Here, we demonstrate that this new MF-RPMD rate approach is efficient to implement and quantitatively accurate for models over a wide range of driving forces, coupling strengths, and temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Vortex-Controlled Quasiparticle Multiplication and Self-Growth Dynamics in Superconducting Resonators

Even in the quantum limit, non-equilibrium quasiparticle (QP) populations induce QP poisoning that irreversibly relaxes the quantum state and significantly degrades the coherence of transmon qubits. A particularly detrimental yet previously unexplored mechanism arises from QP multiplication facilitated by vortex trapping in superconducting quantum circuits, where a high-energy QP relaxes by breaking additional Cooper pairs and amplifying the QP population due to the locally reduced excitation gap and enhanced quantum confinement within the vortex core. Here we directly resolve this elusive QP multiplication process by revealing vortex-controlled QP self-generation in a highly nonequilibrium regime preceding the phonon bottleneck of QP relaxation. At sufficiently low fluence, femtosecond-resolved magneto-reflection spectroscopy directly reveals a continuously increasing QP population that is strongly dependent on magnetic-field-tuned vortex density and absent at higher excitation fluences. Quantitative analysis of the emergent QP pre-bottleneck dynamics further reveals that, although the phonon population saturates within $\simeq$10~ps, both free and trapped QPs continue to grow in a self-sustained manner--hallmarks of the long-anticipated QP-vortex interactions in nonequilibrium superconductivity. We estimate a substantial increase of $\sim$34% in QP density at vortex densities of $\sim$ 100 magnetic flux quanta per $\mathrm{Î¼m^{2}}$. Our findings establish a powerful spectroscopic tool for uncovering QP multiplication and reveal vortex-assisted QP relaxation as a critical materials bottleneck whose mitigation will be essential for resolving QP poisoning and enhancing coherence in superconducting qubits.

Park, Joong M. [Ames Lab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Surface Hydroxyls of Imogolite Nanotubes Drive Distinct Structures and Mobility Differentiation of Nanoconfined Water

Abstract Nanoconfined fluids, particularly water, govern subsurface geochemistry, yet the molecular-level mechanisms by which mineral surfaces dictate confined water structure and mobility remain poorly resolved. Here, we combine solution- and solid-state proton (1H) NMR spectroscopy, NMR relaxometry, modulated-gradient spin–echo (MGSE) NMR diffusometry, infrared spectroscopy, and molecular dynamics simulations to demonstrate that surface hydroxyls drive the structural and dynamic differentiation of water in imogolite nanotubes. In saturated suspensions, we observe the coexistence of distinct water 1H environments, each exhibiting significantly reduced mobility, which we attribute to strong interactions with the imogolite surfaces. As more mobile water is removed, long-range water diffusivity in the fibrous solid samples slows to 1.6 × 10–10 m2·s–1 while local fluctuations increase to 3.4 × 10–8 m2·s–1, indicating a significant increase in molecular restriction through surface interactions. Together, our experiments reveal three coexisting populations with varied structures and mobilities, all distinct from liquid bulk water. We resolve a persistent solid-like interfacial layer strongly bound to surface hydroxyls, characterized by an unusually short T2 (<1 ms), and a very close effective 1H–1H distance of ∼1.55 Å between water and the inner-surface silanol group. An inner-core population occupying the inner cavity exhibits an intermediate dynamic regime with restricted axial diffusion, while outer-surface water associated with aluminum hydroxyls retains relatively higher mobility. These results experimentally substantiate a hierarchy of water populations in imogolite and show how surface chemistry dictates the structures and dynamics of confined water.

Fleming, Xander B. [Earth and Environmental Scienc↗

DOE OSTI2025

DELVE-ing into the Milky Way’s Globular Clusters: Assessing Extratidal Features in NGC 5897, NGC 7492, and Testing Detectability with Deeper Photometry

Extratidal features around globular clusters (GCs) are tracers of their disruption, stellar stream formation, and their host’s gravitational potential. However, these features remain challenging to detect due to their low surface brightness. We conduct a systematic search for such features around 19 GCs in the DECam Local Volume Exploration (DELVE) survey Data Release 2, discovering a new extra-tidal envelope around NGC 5897 and find tentative evidence for an extended envelope surrounding NGC 7492. Through a combination of dynamical modeling and analyzing synthetic stellar populations, we demonstrate these envelopes may have formed through tidal disruption. We use these models to explore the detectability of these features in the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), finding that while LSST’s deeper photometry will enhance detection significance, additional methods for foreground removal like proper motions or metallicities may be important for robust stream detection. Our results both add to the sample of globular clusters with extratidal features and provide insights on interpreting similar features in current and upcoming data.

Chiti, A. [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States); S↗

DOE OSTI2026

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated multi-omic characterizations of the synapse reveal RNA processing factors and ubiquitin ligases associated with neurodevelopmental disorders

The molecular composition of the excitatory synapse is incompletely defined due to its dynamic nature across developmental stages and neuronal populations. To address this gap, we apply proteomic mass spectrometry to characterize the synapse in multiple biological models including the fetal human brain and hiPSC-derived neurons. To prioritize the identified proteins, we develop an orthogonal multi-omic screen of genomic, transcriptomic, interactomic, and structural data. This data-driven framework identifies proteins with key molecular features intrinsic to the synapse, including characteristic patterns of biophysical interactions and cross-tissue expression. The multi-omic analysis captures synaptic proteins across developmental stages and experimental systems, including 493 synaptic candidates supported by proteomics. We further investigate three such proteins that are associated with neurodevelopmental disorders – the CUL3 E3 ubiquitin ligase, the DDX3X and YBX1 nucleic-acid binding proteins – by mapping their networks of physically interacting synapse proteins or transcripts. Our study demonstrates the potential of an integrated multi-omic approach to systematically and more comprehensively resolve the synaptic architecture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Polar primary aerosols across the ocean-sea ice-snow-atmosphere interface: From sources to impacts

Primary aerosols play a critical role in polar climate systems, influencing cloud formation, precipitation, radiative balance, and surface energy budgets. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of primary aerosol sources, transformation and removal processes, and broader atmospheric impacts in polar regions, emphasizing their links to ocean and sea ice biogeochemistry. These aerosols (including sea salt, primary organic aerosol, and primary biological aerosol particles) originate from marine and cryospheric environments and are emitted through physical processes, such as wave breaking, bubble bursting, and blowing snow. Emission sources include seawater, sea ice, snow, and freshwater from river discharge and glacial runoff. Once airborne, these particles can serve as a chemical reservoir, influencing atmospheric composition and reactivity, and as seeds for cloud droplet and ice crystal formation, influencing cloud microphysics and polar climate. Despite their importance, many of the processes governing primary aerosol emissions and transformations remain poorly constrained. The most pressing knowledge gaps pertain to emission processes, limited spatiotemporal observational coverage, instrumentation constraints, parameterization development, and the integration of interdisciplinary expertise. To improve our understanding of primary aerosol drivers and their response to climate, future research efforts should prioritize strategically coordinated and cross-disciplinary process studies, advancements in measurement technologies and coverage, and close collaboration between modelers and observational scientists to inform and refine model parameterizations. As polar regions continue to undergo profound changes marked by increased precipitation, reduced sea and land ice, freshening oceans, and shifting ecosystem dynamics, characterizing present-day primary aerosol populations is vital. Improved understanding will be essential for anticipating future changes in aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions and their implications for polar and global climate systems.

Aerosol-cloud↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting the spatial distribution of soil properties with a physically-based distributed hydrological model

Digital soil maps are commonly data-driven as the development of physically-based models for soil mapping is difficult due to the complexity of soils. However, physically-based hydrologic models have been successful in simulating water dynamics. Since water movement is a major driver of pedogenesis, the physical rules that govern water movement might help explain and predict the spatial variation of soil properties. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of a physically-based, distributed hydrologic model to inform the spatial distribution of soil properties. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was utilized to simulate soil moisture content (SM) and water table depth (WTD) in two hillslope catchments under pasture and forest management wherein hydrologic model outputs were then compared with soil properties measured in situ. SM sensors and wells were installed in both catchments to validate simulations of soil water movement via Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (E). In-situ observations were made at 87 sites within both catchments to study the connection between simulated water movement (SM and WTD) and observed soil properties, namely the depth and thickness of the argillic (Bt), fragic (Btx), and C horizons, and the depth of redoximorphic features. The simulated time series of SM and WTD were also clustered per season using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), which identified similarity among time series at varying timescales. Model validation suggested that simulations of surficial SM (0–20 cm) were reasonable (E = 0.45), however, simulated subsurface SM (45–60 cm) and WTD were not sufficiently accurate. The thickness of Btx horizons were spatially grouped into different populations by SM clusters from every season except spring. For the other properties, only SM dynamics of specific seasons grouped into significantly different populations, suggesting that the explanatory power of simulated water movement varies seasonally and was greater during winter. Here, we show clusters of simulated SM separated soil properties into statistically different populations, showing that hydrologic models could inform areas that followed different water dynamics related to pedogenic trajectories and related biogeochemical processes not necessarily simulated by the model. As such, physically-based modeling of water dynamics can, therefore, inform and advance digital soil mapping by linking water movement patterns stemming from hydrologic model outputs to spatial patterns of soil properties and pedogenesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantitative stable isotope probing (qSIP)-informed metagenomics identifies viruses infecting chemoautotrophs

Aquatic environments absorb ~2.5 gigatonnes of atmospheric carbon each year1, more than the carbon stored in the atmosphere, soils, and all biomass combined. Primary producers transform this dissolved inorganic carbon into biomass that can subsequently flow into other trophic levels, or be released back into the environment through viral lysis. While there is substantial knowledge about the diversity and activity of viruses infecting photoautotrophic primary producers and the ecosystem impact, little is known about viruses infecting chemoautotrophs, representing a gap in our understanding of key processes driving microbial carbon cycling. Here, we combine metagenomics with quantitative 12/13C stable isotopic probing (qSIP) mesocosm experiments in a marine-derived meromictic pond to quantify population-specific isotopic enrichment, identify key chemoautotrophic primary producers, and virus-host dynamics. Isotopically enriched carbon is tracked from the genomes of chemoautotrophs to putative viruses, showing that active populations of hydrogen/sulfur-oxidizing chemoautotrophs (Thiomicrorhabdus, Hydrogenovibrio, Sulfurimonas, Sulfurovum) are targeted by viruses. This work provides the foundation for revealing the diversity and activity of viruses infecting globally-widespread chemoautotrophs. Our study sheds light on trophic interactions that impact microbial carbon cycling in aphotic environments and builds toward biogeochemical models that incorporate viral impacts on chemoautotrophic microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗