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DOE OSTI2026

A Proof for the Unbiased Nature of Range-Doppler Measurements in Coarse-Resolution Dechirp-on-Receive Feedback Synthetic Aperture Radar Navigation

In feedback synthetic aperture radar (SAR) navigation, observables extracted from SAR range-Doppler images correct position and velocity errors accumulated within an associated navigation system. Unlike most other sensors, which produce measurements without input from a navigation system, SARs require a prior estimate of the radar’s position and velocity to adjust the radar’s matched filter during range-Doppler image formation. Consequently, it is possible for position and velocity errors within a navigation system to manifest as additional errors (biases) in the range-Doppler measurement observables. Prior work has not tackled this possibility in the context of feedback SAR navigation with a dechirp-on-receive radar. This paper offers a proof demonstrating that range-Doppler observables extracted from coarse-resolution vertical SAR images formed with a dechirp-on-receive radar may be safely modeled as unbiased measurements of the radar’s true position and velocity despite the presence of moderate navigation errors.

dechirp-on-receive↗

DOE OSTI2023

River Delta Morphotypes Emerge From Multiscale Characterization of Shorelines

Abstract Delta shoreline structure has long been hypothesized to encode information on the relative influence of fluvial, wave, and tidal processes on delta formation and evolution. We introduce here a novel multiscale characterization of shorelines by defining three process‐informed morphological metrics. We show that this characterization yields self‐emerging classes of morphologically similar deltas, that is, delta morphotypes, and also predicts the dominant forcing of each morphotype. Then we show that the dominant forcings inferred from shoreline structure generally align with those estimated via relative sediment fluxes, while positing that misalignments arise from spatiotemporal heterogeneity in deltaic sediment fluxes not captured in their estimates. The proposed framework for shoreline characterization advances our quantitative understanding of how shoreline features reflect delta forcings, and may aid in deciphering paleoclimate from images of ancient deposits and projecting delta morphologic response to changes in sediment fluxes.

Vulis, L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Population-level incidence of human papillomavirus–positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, by smoking status

Abstract We estimated the population-level incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)–positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers by smoking status. We combined HPV DNA genotyping data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Cancer Registry Sentinel Surveillance System with data from the Kentucky Cancer Registry and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System across smoking status. During 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 in Kentucky, most cases of oropharyngeal (63.3%), anal (59.7%), and cervical (54.9%) cancer were among individuals who ever smoked. The population-level incidence rate was higher among individuals who ever smoked than among those who never smoked for HPV-positive oropharyngeal (7.8 vs 2.1; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.6), cervical (13.7 vs 6.8; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0), and anal (3.9 vs 1.6; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.5) cancers. These findings indicate that smoking is associated with increased risk of HPV-positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, and the population-level burden of these cancers is higher among individuals who ever smoked.

Oncology↗

DOE OSTI2020

RedMaPPer: Evolution and Mass Dependence of the Conditional Luminosity Functions of Red Galaxies in Galaxy Clusters

In this work we characterize the luminosity distribution, halo-mass dependence, and redshift evolution of red galaxies in galaxy clusters using the SDSS Data Release 8 redMaPPer cluster sample. We propose a simple prescription for the relationship between the luminosity of both red central and red satellite galaxies and the mass of their host halos, and show that this model is well fit by the data. Using a larger galaxy cluster sample than previously employed in the literature, we find that the luminosities of red central galaxies scale as $\langle \mathrm{log}L\rangle \propto {A}_{L}\mathrm{log}({M}_{200b})$, with A L = 0.39 ± 0.04, and that the scatter of the red central galaxy luminosity at fixed M 200b (${\sigma }_{\mathrm{log}L| M}$) is ${0.23}_{-0.04}^{+0.05}$ dex, with the error bar including systematics due to mis-centering of the cluster finder, photometry, and photometric redshift estimation. Our data prefers a positive correlation between the luminosity of red central galaxies and the observed richness of clusters at a fixed halo mass, with an effective correlation coefficient ${d}_{\mathrm{eff}}={0.36}_{-0.16}^{+0.17}$. The characteristic luminosity of red satellites becomes dimmer from z = 0.3 to z = 0.1 by ~20% after accounting for passive evolution. We estimate the fraction of galaxy clusters where the brightest red galaxy is not the central to be P BNC ~ 20%. We discuss implications of these findings in the context of galaxy evolution and the galaxy–halo connection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lightning Interferometry Uncertainty, Beam Steering Interferometry, and Evidence of Lightning Being Ignited by a Cosmic Ray Shower

Abstract We present an uncertainty analysis on correlation‐based time delay estimate, the basis for broadband lightning interferometry. A normal interferometry would yield much higher uncertainties than the theoretically predicted lower bound due to finite correlation window lengths. However, if the signals are aligned in time, the uncertainties approach the lower bound and can be used to indicate the interferometric uncertainties. Based on this, we introduce a beam steering interferometry technique. It first estimates a direction centroid for the lightning sources with a normal interferometry and computes the time delays among the signals. It then shifts the raw data with the time delays to align the signals roughly in time and reprocess the aligned signals. It finally pushes the reprocessed results to their correct positions, based on the time delays estimated in the first step. We apply this technique on a fast positive breakdown (FPB) process that started a normal intracloud lightning. The FPB process is shown to have a much more complex structure and development than a normal interferometry would provide. More importantly, from both interferometric and polarization analyses, the FPB appears to be ignited by a cosmic ray shower (CRS). We estimate the radio frequency strength and frequency content related to a presumed CRS in a thunderstorm electric field and find that they are in agreement with the observations. We examine the electric field effect of the CRS front and find that it could raise the field above the threshold for positive breakdown and is capable of igniting the FPB (and the lightning).

Shao, Xuan‐Min↗

DOE OSTI2021

Correlation between Sensor Performance, Autonomy Performance and Fuel-Efficiency in Semi-Truck Platoons

Semi-trucks, specifically class-8 trucks, have recently become a platform of interest for autonomy systems. Platooning involves multiple trucks following each n close proximity, with only the lead truck being manually driven and the rest being controlled autonomously. This approach to semi-truck autonomy is easily integrated on existing platforms, reduces delivery times, and reduces green- house gas emissions via fuel economy benefits. Level 1 SAE fuel studies were performed on class-8 trucks operating with the Auburn Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) system, and fuel savings up to 10-12% were seen. Enabling platooning autonomy required the use of radar, global positioning systems (GPS), and wireless vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication. Poor measurements and state estimates can lead to incorrect or missing positioning data, which can lead to unnecessary dynamics and finally wasted fuel. This is especially an issue if deceleration is applied in response to a bad measurement. In this study, a faulty radar was shown to cause a greater than 5% increase in fuel consumption. The mechanism of this fuel consumption increase is investigated and applied to other types of sensor failures to indicate their potential effects on fuel economy. This analysis indicates that poor GPS signals over short time can be largely filtered out, with no real gain or loss of fuel economy. V2V communications were intentionally limited by causing interference, which resulted in dropped communication packets over a small physical area, but not an appreciable impact on fuel economy.

vehicle platooning, sensor performance, semi-auton↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Nonintrusive Optical Approach to Characterize Heliostats in Utility-Scale Power Tower Plants: Camera Position Sensitivity Analysis

Optics plays a major role in the effectiveness of concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. The nonintrusive optical (NIO) approach developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory uses uncrewed aircraft system (UAS)-based imaging to survey heliostats in a commercial-scale power tower CSP plant and characterize their optical errors. The image processing algorithm uses photogrammetry to calculate the camera position for each image frame, and the accuracy of the estimated optical errors is highly sensitive to the calculated camera position accuracy. In this study, we simulate a series of case studies in python to examine the impact of different parameters of the sensitivity of the camera calculation, including the number of facet corners used as control points for the photogrammetric calculation, precision error in the detected pixel locations of the facet corners in the image, and precision error of the canting and mounting positions of the facets of the heliostat. The case studies consider heliostat geometry based on three commercial designs to serve as representative examples of different possible sizes of heliostats that the NIO method could be applied to. The results show that increasing the number of control points can improve accuracy for heliostats with many facets, pixel precision has a significantly larger impact on camera calculation accuracy than facet canting and mounting errors, and the camera distance and focal length must be chosen to ensure adequate pixel accuracy on the heliostat surface depending on the size of heliostat. In conclusion, based on the results, recommendations for the allowable values of each parameter are provided to achieve the required NIO optical error estimation accuracy depending on the size of heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulation-driven optimization of high-order meshes in ALE hydrodynamics

Here we propose tools for high-order mesh optimization and demonstrate their benefits in the context of multi-material Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) compressible shock hydrodynamic applications. The mesh optimization process is driven by information provided by the simulation which uses the optimized mesh, such as shock positions, material regions, known error estimates, etc. These simulation features are usually represented discretely, for instance, as finite element functions on the Lagrangian mesh. The discrete nature of the input is critical for the practical applicability of the algorithms we propose and distinguishes this work from approaches that strictly require analytical information. Our methods are based on node movement through a high-order extension of the Target-Matrix Optimization Paradigm (TMOP). The proposed formulation is fully algebraic and relies only on local Jacobian matrices, so it is applicable to all types of mesh elements, in 2D and 3D, and any order of the mesh. We discuss the notions of constructing adaptive target matrices and obtaining their derivatives, reconstructing discrete data in intermediate meshes, node limiting that enables improvement of global mesh quality while preserving space-dependent local mesh features, and appropriate normalization of the objective function. The adaptivity methods are combined with automatic ALE triggers that can provide robustness of the mesh evolution and avoid excessive remap procedures. The benefits of the new high-order TMOP technology are illustrated on several simulations performed in the high-order ALE application BLAST.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?

Abstract Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm −2 . Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Diabetes and hypertension are related to amyloid-beta burden in the population-based Rotterdam Study

Abstract Higher vascular disease burden increases the likelihood of developing dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease. Better understanding the association between vascular risk factors and Alzheimer’s disease pathology at the predementia stage is critical for developing effective strategies to delay cognitive decline. In this work, we estimated the impact of six vascular risk factors on the presence and severity of in vivo measured brain amyloid-beta (Aβ) plaques in participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study. Vascular risk factors (hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes, obesity, physical inactivity and smoking) were assessed 13 (2004–2008) and 7 years (2009–2014) prior to 18F-florbetaben PET (2018–2021) in 635 dementia-free participants. Vascular risk factors were associated with binary amyloid PET status or continuous PET readouts (standard uptake value ratios, SUVrs) using logistic and linear regression models, respectively, adjusted for age, sex, education, APOE4 risk allele count and time between vascular risk and PET assessment. Participants’ mean age at time of amyloid PET was 69 years (range: 60–90), 325 (51.2%) were women and 190 (29.9%) carried at least one APOE4 risk allele. The adjusted prevalence estimates of an amyloid-positive PET status markedly increased with age [12.8% (95% CI 11.6; 14) in 60–69 years versus 35% (36; 40.8) in 80–89 years age groups] and APOE4 allele count [9.7% (8.8; 10.6) in non-carriers versus 38.4% (36; 40.8) to 60.4% (54; 66.8) in carriers of one or two risk allele(s)]. Diabetes 7 years prior to PET assessment was associated with a higher risk of a positive amyloid status [odds ratio (95% CI) = 3.68 (1.76; 7.61), P < 0.001] and higher standard uptake value ratios, indicating more severe Aβ pathology [standardized beta = 0.40 (0.17; 0.64), P = 0.001]. Hypertension was associated with higher SUVr values in APOE4 carriers (mean SUVr difference of 0.09), but not in non-carriers (mean SUVr difference 0.02; P = 0.005). In contrast, hypercholesterolaemia was related to lower SUVr values in APOE4 carriers (mean SUVr difference −0.06), but not in non-carriers (mean SUVr difference 0.02). Obesity, physical inactivity and smoking were not related to amyloid PET measures. The current findings suggest a contribution of diabetes, hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia to the pathophysiology of Alzheimer’s disease in a general population of older non-demented adults. As these conditions respond well to lifestyle modification and drug treatment, further research should focus on the preventative effect of early risk management on the development of Alzheimer’s disease neuropathology.

van Arendonk, Joyce (ORCID:0000000172941633)↗

DOE OSTI2021

OzDES Reverberation Mapping Programme: the first Mg ii lags from 5 yr of monitoring

ABSTRACT Reverberation mapping is a robust method to measure the masses of supermassive black holes outside of the local Universe. Measurements of the radius–luminosity (R−L) relation using the Mg ii emission line are critical for determining these masses near the peak of quasar activity at z ≈ 1−2, and for calibrating secondary mass estimators based on Mg ii that can be applied to large samples with only single-epoch spectroscopy. We present the first nine Mg ii lags from our 5-yr Australian Dark Energy Survey reverberation mapping programme, which substantially improves the number and quality of Mg ii lag measurements. As the Mg ii feature is somewhat blended with iron emission, we model and subtract both the continuum and iron contamination from the multiepoch spectra before analysing the Mg ii line. We also develop a new method of quantifying correlated spectroscopic calibration errors based on our numerous, contemporaneous observations of F-stars. The lag measurements for seven of our nine sources are consistent with both the H β and Mg ii R−L relations reported by previous studies. Our simulations verify the lag reliability of our nine measurements, and we estimate that the median false positive rate of the lag measurements is $4{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Repeated gravitational wave bursts from cosmic strings

A characteristic observational signature of cosmic strings are short duration gravitational wave (GW) bursts. These have been searched for by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) Collaboration and will be searched for with LISA. We point out that these burst signals are repeated, since cosmic string loops evolve quasiperiodically in time, and will always appear from essentially the same position in the sky. We estimate the number of GW repeaters for LVK and LISA and show that the string tension that can be probed scales as detector sensitivity to the sixth power, which raises hope for detection in future GW detectors. Furthermore, the observation of repeated GW bursts from the same cosmic string loop helps distinguish between the GW waveform parameters and the sky localization.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Consumer Purchasing Behavior and Usage of Lighting in the Residential Sector

We present the results of a 2019 online survey of 1,800 adults in the United States who recently purchased a light bulb to understand how consumers make decisions about purchasing light bulbs and how light bulbs are used in the residential sector. From our survey, we found that purchases of LED bulbs made up the largest percentage of sales by lighting technology and respondents generally had positive impressions of LEDs. We estimated the average daily hours of use for bulbs being purchased depending on bulb shape. We also provide an estimate for the lumen distribution of purchased light bulbs and the distribution of installation locations by bulb shape. We found that incandescent bulb purchasers were primarily replacing a failed incandescent bulb and these purchasers were less likely to have favorable impressions of LEDs. However, we found that the majority of participants replacing an incandescent bulb purchased either a CFL or LED. Using an adaptive conjoint analysis technique, we found that the five most important factors to consumers when choosing a light bulb are purchase price, bulb lifetime, energy cost savings relative to an incandescent bulb, light appearance, and energy savings relative to an incandescent bulb. The results of this study provide an in-depth look at the lighting market in 2019 and may provide a basis for developing models of the residential lighting market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

PV-Finder: ML Based Algorithm for Primary Vertex Identification

he CMS detector at the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) will operate in challenging conditions with expected pile-up of up to 200 collisions per bunch crossing, necessitating the development of a more resilient primary vertex (PV) reconstruction method to ensure the integrity of data analysis and the efficiency of the CMS triggering system. This contribution describes preliminary studies on a new ML based PV-Finder method for PV identification. The method is based on a model trained using Kernel Density Estimations (KDEs) derived from the positions of reconstructed tracks at the beamline, incorporating uncertainties from track parameters. It also utilizes target histograms, modeled as Gaussian distributions centered on the actual ground truth values of specific primary vertices.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep-learning-driven simulations of boundary layer clouds over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract. Based on long-term observations at the Southern Great Plains site by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for training and validation, a deep-learning model is developed to simulate the daytime evolution of boundary layer clouds (BLCs) from the perspective of land–atmosphere coupling. The model takes ARM measurements (including early-morning soundings and diurnally varying surface meteorological conditions and heat fluxes) as inputs and predicts hourly estimates (including cloud occurrence, the positions of cloud boundaries, and the vertical profile of the cloud fraction) as outputs. The deep-learning model offers good agreement with the observed cloud fields, especially in the accuracy with which cloud occurrence and base height are reproduced. When the inputs are substituted by reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2, the outputs of the deep-learning model provide a better agreement with observation than the cloud fields extracted from ERA5 and MERRA-2 themselves. Thus, the deep-learning model shows great potential to serve as a diagnostic tool for the performance of physics-based models in simulating stratiform and cumulus clouds. By quantifying biases in clouds and attributing them to the simulated atmospheric state variables versus the model-parameterized cloud processes, this observation-based deep-learning model may offer insights into the directions needed to improve the simulation of BLCs in physics-based models for weather forecasting and climate prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A bootstrapping approach to social media quantification

Abstract This work considers the use of classifiers in a downstream aggregation task estimating class proportions, such as estimating the percentage of reviews for a movie with positive sentiment. We derive the bias and variance of the class proportion estimator when taking classification error into account to determine how to best trade off different error types when tuning a classifier for these tasks. Additionally, we propose a method for constructing confidence intervals that correctly adjusts for classification error when estimating these statistics. We conduct experiments on four document classification tasks comparing our methods to prior approaches across classifier thresholds, sample sizes, and label distributions. Prior approaches have focused on providing the most accurate point estimate while this work focuses on the creation of correct confidence intervals that appropriately account for classifier error. Compared to the prior approaches, our methods provide lower error and more accurate confidence intervals.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Systems and methods for direct estimation of battery parameters using only charge/discharge curves

Electrochemical models for the lithium-ion battery are useful in predicting and controlling its performance. The values of the parameters in these models are vital to their accuracy. However, not all parameters can be measured precisely, especially when destructive methods are prohibited. In some embodiments of the present disclosure, a parameter estimation approach is used to estimate the open circuit potential of the positive electrode (Up) using piecewise linear approximation together with all the other parameters of a single particle model. Up and 10 more parameters may be estimated from a single discharge curve without knowledge of the electrode chemistry using a technique such as a genetic algorithm. Different case studies were presented for estimating Up with different types of parameters of the battery model. The estimated parameters were then validated by comparing simulations at different discharge rates with experimental data.

Qi, Yanbo↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Solar Energy Product Based on Cloud Coverage Estimation Using Machine Learning Methods

Cloud cover estimation from images taken by sky-facing cameras can be an important input for analyzing current weather conditions and estimating photovoltaic power generation. The constant change in position, shape, and density of clouds, however, makes the development of a robust computational method for cloud cover estimation challenging. Accurately determining the edge of clouds and hence the separation between clouds and clear sky is difficult and often impossible. Toward determining cloud cover for estimating photovoltaic output, we propose using machine learning methods for cloud segmentation. We compare several methods including a classical regression model, deep learning methods, and boosting methods that combine results from the other machine learning models. To train each of the machine learning models with various sky conditions, we supplemented the existing Singapore whole sky imaging segmentation database with hazy and overcast images collected by a camera-equipped Waggle sensor node. We found that the U-Net architecture, one of the deep neural networks we utilized, segmented cloud pixels most accurately. However, the accuracy of segmenting cloud pixels did not guarantee high accuracy of estimating solar irradiance. We confirmed that the cloud cover ratio is directly related to solar irradiance. Additionally, we confirmed that solar irradiance and solar power output are closely related; hence, by predicting solar irradiance, we can estimate solar power output. This study demonstrates that sky-facing cameras with machine learning methods can be used to estimate solar power output. This ground-based approach provides an inexpensive way to understand solar irradiance and estimate production from photovoltaic solar facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗