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At least 91 records · Page 5

Carbonaceous Chondrite-Rich Howardites; The Potential for Hydrous Lithologies on the HED Parent

Howardites, eucrites, and diogenites, collectively referred to as the "HED's", are a clan of meteorites thought to represent three different lithologies from a common parent body. Collectively they are the most abundant type of achondrites in terrestrial collections. Eucrites are crustal basalts and gabbros, diogenites are mostly orthopyroxenites and are taken to represent lower crust or upper mantle materials, and howardites are mixed breccias containing both lithologies and are generally regarded as derived from the regolith or near-surface. The presence of exogenous chondritic material in howardite breccias has long been recognized. As a group, howardites exhibit divergence in bulk chemistry from what would be produced by mixing of diogenite and eucrite end-members exclusively, a phenomenon most evident in elevated concentrations of siderophile elements. Despite this chemical evidence for chondritic input in howardite breccias, chondritic clasts have only been identified in a minority of samples, and typically at levels of only a few percent. Three recent Antarctic howardite finds, the paired Mt. Pratt (PRA) 04401 and PRA 04402 and Scott Glacier (SCO) 06040, are notable for their high proportion of carbonaceous chondrite clasts. PRA 04401 is particularly well-endowed, with large chondritic clasts occupying more than half of the modal area of the sections we examined. Previously only a few percent chondritic clasts had been observed to occur in howardites. PRA 04401 is the most chondrite-rich howardite known

Herrin, J. S.↗

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance. NASA's objective is to better understand and effectively manage risk, and thus more effectively ensure mission and programmatic success, and to achieve and maintain high safety standards at NASA. NASA intends to use risk assessment in its programs and projects to support optimal management decision making for the improvement of safety and program performance. In addition to using quantitative/probabilistic risk assessment to improve safety and enhance the safety decision process, NASA has incorporated quantitative risk assessment into its system safety assessment process, which until now has relied primarily on a qualitative representation of risk. Also, NASA has recently adopted the Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) process [1-1] as a valuable addition to supplement existing deterministic and experience-based engineering methods and tools. Over the years, NASA has been a leader in most of the technologies it has employed in its programs. One would think that PRA should be no exception. In fact, it would be natural for NASA to be a leader in PRA because, as a technology pioneer, NASA uses risk assessment and management implicitly or explicitly on a daily basis. NASA has probabilistic safety requirements (thresholds and goals) for crew transportation system missions to the International Space Station (ISS) [1-2]. NASA intends to have probabilistic requirements for any new human spaceflight transportation system acquisition. Methods to perform risk and reliability assessment in the early 1960s originated in U.S. aerospace and missile programs. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an example. It would have been a reasonable extrapolation to expect that NASA would also become the world leader in the application of PRA. That was, however, not to happen. Early in the Apollo program, estimates of the probability for a successful roundtrip human mission to the moon yielded disappointingly low (and suspect) values and NASA became discouraged from further performing quantitative risk analyses until some two decades later when the methods were more refined, rigorous, and repeatable. Instead, NASA decided to rely primarily on the Hazard Analysis (HA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methods for system safety assessment.

Stamatelatos,Michael↗

Dynamic Modeling of Ascent Abort Scenarios for Crewed Launches

For the last 30 years, the United States's human space program has been focused on low Earth orbit exploration and operations with the Space Shuttle and International Space Station programs. After nearly 50 years, the U.S. is again working to return humans beyond Earth orbit. To do so, NASA is developing a new launch vehicle and spacecraft to provide this capability. The launch vehicle is referred to as the Space Launch System (SLS) and the spacecraft is called Orion. The new launch system is being developed with an abort system that will enable the crew to escape launch failures that would otherwise be catastrophic as well as probabilistic design requirements set for probability of loss of crew (LOC) and loss of mission (LOM). In order to optimize the risk associated with designing this new launch system, as well as verifying the associated requirements, NASA has developed a comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the integrated ascent phase of the mission that includes the launch vehicle, spacecraft and ground launch facilities. Given the dynamic nature of rocket launches and the potential for things to go wrong, developing a PRA to assess the risk can be a very challenging effort. Prior to launch and after the crew has boarded the spacecraft, the risk exposure time can be on the order of three hours. During this time, events may initiate from either of the spacecraft, the launch vehicle, or the ground systems, thus requiring an emergency egress from the spacecraft to a safe ground location or a pad abort via the spacecraft's launch abort system. Following launch, again either the spacecraft or the launch vehicle can initiate the need for the crew to abort the mission and return to the home. Obviously, there are thousands of scenarios whose outcome depends on when the abort is initiated during ascent as to how the abort is performed. This includes modeling the risk associated with explosions and benign system failures that require aborting a spacecraft under very dynamic conditions, particularly in the lower atmosphere, and returning the crew home safely. This paper will provide an overview of the PRA model that has been developed of this new launch system, including some of the challenges that are associated with this effort. Key Words: PRA, space launches, human space program, ascent abort, spacecraft, launch vehicles

Bigler, Mark↗

Comparative Analysis of Static and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This study examines three different methodologies for producing loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) risks estimates for probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of crewed spacecraft. The three bottom-up, component-based PRA approaches examined are a traditional static fault tree, a dynamic Monte Carlo simulation, and a fault tree hybrid that incorporates some dynamic elements. These approaches were used to model the reaction control system thruster pod of a generic crewed spacecraft and mission, and a comparative analysis of the methods is presented. The methodologies are assessed in terms of the process of modeling a system, the actionable information produced for the design team, and the overall fidelity of the quantitative risk evaluation generated. The system modeling process is compared in terms of the effort required to generate the initial model, update the model in response to design changes, and support mass-versus-risk trade studies. The results are compared by examining the top-level LOM/LOC estimates and the relative risk driver rankings at the failure mode level. The fidelity of each modeling methodology is discussed in terms of its capability to handle real-world system dynamics such as cold-sparing, changes in mission operations due to loss of redundancy, and common cause failure modes. The paper also discusses the applicability of each methodology to different phases of system development and shows that a single methodology may not be suitable for all of the many purposes of a spacecraft PRA. The fault tree hybrid approach is shown to be best suited to the needs of early assessments during conceptual design phases. As the design begins to mature, the level of detail represented in the risk model must go beyond redundancy and nominal mission operations to include dynamic, time- and state-dependent system responses as well as diverse system capabilities. This is best accomplished using the dynamic simulation approach, since these phenomena are not easily captured by static methods. Ultimately, once the design has been finalized and the goal of the PRA is to provide design validation and requirement verification, more traditional, static fault tree approaches may become as appropriate as the simulation method.

Mattenberger, Christopher J.↗

Proof-of-Concept for a Long-Term Health Metric to Quantify End of Mission Health Status in Astronauts

NASA has long used Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) when high-stakes decisions need to be made about complex systems. For spaceflight medical risk, the Human Research Program’s Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a significant step towards robustly quantifying the risk to crew health during exploration missions. However, there remains a significant gap in the ability to comprehensively characterize and assess risk across the disparate functionalities and capabilities which comprise the entire Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. To fill this gap, the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) project aims to perform risk characterization for the CHP system by assessing performance risk in addition to medical risk. This effort also includes quantifying Long-Term Health (LTH) risk in addition to in-mission risk outcomes within the CHP-PRA results. LTH risk encompasses the timeframe from immediately post-flight, through the rest of an astronaut’s career, through retirement, and until death. A proof-of-concept LTH risk metric is based on medical condition end-state, as defined by the Evidence Library, capturing the spaceflight specific medical impacts persisting into post-flight[1]. Condition outcomes in the Evidence Library progress through three Clinical Phases (CP): the diagnostic phase (CP1), the treatment/convalescent phase (CP2), and the end-state phase (CP3) which represents the detrimental effects of the condition after the crew member has recovered to the maximal extent. Each CP has an associated Task Impairment (TI), defined as the degree of crew incapacity due to experiencing the condition, and is quantified with a 0-1 range. Conditions with an associated CP3 (e.g. Sepsis, Traumatic Hypovolemic Shock, Sudden Cardiac Arrest, etc.) typically have serious consequences that can cause an astronaut to be fully or partially debilitated throughout the remainder of the mission. Consequently, the Cumulative CP3 TI End-of-Mission Health Status Metric is developed by CHP-PRA to quantify the cumulative effects of all conditions which progressed to the CP3 state throughout the entirety of the mission. Hence, this End-of-Mission Health Status Metric attempts to serve as an indicator of an astronaut’s health state at the time of landing. The severity of the lingering effects of in-mission medical events are dependent on mission activities and the level of available in-mission medical care. This allows the associated cumulative TI metric to be used in comparison with the crew’s end of mission health status for different levels of in-mission resources. This presentation provides the strategy for using CP3 as an LTH metric component, as well as a proof-of-concept demonstration of LTH risk characterization using this component.

long term health↗

The Future of Integrated Performance Modeling in the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment Project

The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault-tree probabilistic techniques to classify risks in the space environment by taking advantage of the inherent knowledge of complex spaceflight system design and testing to quantify failure risk. In harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of ‘How do we balance health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on long duration space missions?’ remains a deeply challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Human Research Program’s Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) was a significant step forward in efforts to robustly quantify the risk to crew health for exploration missions. However, there remains a significant gap in the ability to comprehensively assess and characterize risk across the disparate functionalities and capabilities which comprise the Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. The Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) project seeks to characterize CHP risks by expanding beyond the foundation established by its PRA predecessors like IMM and MEDPRAT, that simulate medical risk metrics like loss of crew life and evacuations. One of the new risk measures in the CHP-PRA system is embodied in our Performance Risk Model (PRisM). PRisM provides a novel way of assessing crew performance on mission tasks, using a generalized framework which relates back to NASA-STD-3001. This approach allows PRisM to capture and integrate data from a variety of different domains into a single, unified, reproducible representation of astronaut performance. In this presentation, we discuss the motivation for the CHP-PRA work and give a high level overview of the goals of the project, outline the forward work for PRisM, and discuss collaboration opportunities for the community who might explore if their domain knowledge and data could be represented, integrated, and quantified with these tools, whose outcomes are metrics useful for supporting operational mission planning and decision making.

Lauren McIntyre↗

Expectation vs. Reality: The Sunrise Problem Applied to Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The Sunrise Problem is succinctly stated as a question: “what is the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow?” Attempts to answer this seemingly simple question reveal unexpected incongruities between statistical/probabilistic estimates and “real-world” expectations. Rather than being a purely philosophical problem, similar incongruities can be found in reliability and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) analyses. These differences between statistical predictions and demonstrated reliability can result in analysis shortcomings that should be addressed and resolved. This presentation will begin by discussing the nature of the Sunrise Problem and how it applies to PRA and reliability. Examples of the Sunrise Problem in a PRA estimate will also be included, along with tips to identify and resolve the shortcomings that result from these anomalous situations.

Sunrise Problem↗

Effect of hypovolemia, infusion, and oral rehydration on plasma electrolytes, ADH, renin activity, and +G/z/ tolerance

Effects on plasma volume, electrolyte shifts, and +G(z) tolerance induced by: (1) blood withdrawal; (2) blood infusion; and (3) oral fluid intake, were determined at 0.5 G/min in centrifugation tests of six ambulatory male patients, aged 21 to 27 yrs. Hypovolemia induced by withdrawal of 400 ml blood, blood infusion followed by repeated centrifugation, effects of consuming an isotonic drink (0.9% NaCl) to achieve oral rehydration, and donning of red adaptation goggles were studied for effects on acceleration tolerance, pre-acceleration and post-acceleration plasma renin activity (PRA) and plasma vasopressin levels. No significant changes in post-acceleration PRA compared to pre-acceleration PRA were found, and administration of oral rehydration is found as effective as blood replacement in counteracting hypovolemic effects.

Greenleaf, J. E.↗

Evidence for a distant ( 8700 R sub J) Jovian magnetotail: Voyager 2 observations

A correlative survey of magnetometer (MAG) and Planetary Radio Astronomy (PRA) 1.2 kHz continuum radiation measurements from Voyager 2 provide evidence for at least eight distant Jovian magnetotail sightings occurring about once a month over the first 2/3 of 1981 at distances of approximately 5,000 to 9,000 R sub J. The occurrences of these events are in good agreement with prior Plasma Wave Science and Plasma Science identifications. Observations of these distant magnetotail, or tail filament, encounters appear most prevalent in both MAC and PRA data sets when the spacecraft was closest to the Jupiter-Sun axis at approximately 6,500 R sub J from the planet; the PRA events are also most intense during those times. A specific tail encounter occurring in mid-February 1981 is analyzed and shown to possess a remarkably symmetric magnetic field signature and to have a bipolar field structure in the central region. The bipolarity is characteristic of most of the eight events.

Lepping, R. P.↗

Analysis of Jovian decametric data: Study of radio emission mechanisms

The Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 Planetary Radio Astronomy Experiments (PRA) have produced the finest set of Jovian decametric radio emission data ever obtained. Jovian decametric L-burst and S-burst arcs were characterized and the data reconciled with models for the radio emission geometry and mechanisms. The first major results involve comparisons of the distribution of arc separations with longitudes. The identification and analyses of systematic variations in the PRA data have yielded interesting results, but only the most obvious features of the data were examined. Analyses of the PRA data were extended with the use of new 6-Sec formats that are more sensitive to the S-bursts.

Staelin, D. H.↗

Analysis of Jovian decametric data: Study of radio emission mechanisms

Data gathered by the Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 Planetary Radio Astronomy Experiments (PRA) are unique in many ways including their frequency range, time resolution, polarization information and geometric characteristics. Studies of rapidly varying phenomena have thus far been hampered by paper display techniques which require large amounts of paper to exploit the full PRA time resolution. A software package capable of effectively displaying full 6s resolution PRA dynamic spectra on a high quality video monitor while compensating for the aforementioned variations was developed. The most striking phenomena revealed by the new display techniques is called Modulated Spectral Activity (MSA) because of its appearance in dynamic spectra as a series at least two parallel emission bands which drift back and forth in frequency on time scales of tens of seconds. In an attempt to locate and understand the MSA source mechanism, a catalogue has been compiled of the start and end of all known MSA events.

Staelin, D. H.↗

Gender differences in endocrine responses to posture and 7 days of 6 deg head down bed rest

Endocrine regulation of fluids and electrolytes during seven days of 6 deg head down bed rest (HDBR) was compared in male (n = 8) and, for the first time, female (n = 8) volunteers. The subjects' responses to quiet standing for 2 hr before and after HDBR were also tested. In both sexes, diuresis and natriuresis were evident during the first 2-3 days of HDBR, resulting in a marked increase in the urinary Na/K ratio and significant Na retention on reambulation. After the first day of HDBR, plasma renin activity (PRA) was increased relative to aldosterone, plasma volume was decreased, and the renal response to aldosterone appeared to be appropriate. Circulating levels of arginine vasopressin (AVP), cortisol, and ACTH were unchanged during HDBR. Plasma testosterone decreased slightly on day 2 of HDBR in males. The ratio of AM ACTH to cortisol was lower in females than in males because ACTH was lower in females. Urinary cortisol increased and remained elevated throughout the HDBR in males only. There were no gender differences in the responses to 7 day HDBR, except those in the pituitary-adrenal system; those differences appeared unrelated to the postural change. The provocative cardiovascular test of quiet standing before and after bed rest revealed both sex differences and effects of HDBR. There were significant sex differences in cardiovascular responses to standing, before and after HDBR. Females had greater PRA and aldosterone responses to standing before bedrest and larger aldosterone responses to standing after HDBR than males. Cardiovascular responses to standing before and after bedrest differed markedly: arterial pressure and heart rates increased with standing before HDBR, by contrast, arterial pressure decreased, with greater increases in heart rates after HDBR. In both sexes, all hormonal responses to standing were greater after HDBR. The results show clearly that similar responses to standing as well as to HDBR occur in both sexes, but that females exhibit greater PRA and aldosterone responses than males.

Vernikos, J.↗

Voyager planetary radio astronomy studies

Analysis of nonthermal radio emission data obtained by the Planetary Radio Astronomy (PRA) spectrometers on the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft was performed. This PRA data provided unique insights into the radio emission characteristics of the outer planets because of PRA's unique spectral response below the terrestrial ionospheric plasma frequency and its unprecedented proximity to the source. Of those results which were documented or published, this final report surveys only the highlights and cites references for more complete discussions. Unpublished results for Uranus, Neptune, and theoretical Ionian current distributions are presented at greater length. The most important conclusion to be drawn from these observations is that banded spectral emission is common to the radio emission below 1-2 MHz observed from all four Jovian planets. In every case multiple spectral features evolve on time scales of seconds to minutes. To the extent these features drift in frequency, they appear never to cross one another. The Neptunian spectral features appear to drift little or not at all, their evolution consisting principally of waxing and waning. Since other evidence strongly suggests that most or all of this radio emission is occurring near the local magnetospheric electron cyclotron frequency, this implies that this emission preferentially occurs at certain continually changing planetary radii. It remains unknown why certain radii might be favored, unless radial electric field components or other means serve to differentiate radially the magnetospheric plasma density, particle energy vectors, or particle coherence. Calculation of the spatial distribution and intensity of the Io-generated magnetospheric currents are also presented; these currents may be limited principally by wave impedance and local field strengths.

Staelin, David H.↗

Overview of Probabilistic Risk Assessment at NASA: Past, Present and Future

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) adds the "probability" dimension to the traditional "deterministic" dimension of engineering and safety analyses. Although PRA, as a discipline, has been the evolutionary product of only the last couple of decades, much of the underlying methodology has been in use for a long time. In fact, the concept of probability for describing the likelihood that rare events happen is ancient and dates from Ancient Greece. Our vision is for NASA to achieve world-class state-of-the-art capability in performing and using PRA in technical and management decisions. Since NASA is a leader in many technical fields in which it is involved, we hope, before long, to see NASA become a leader in this field also.

Stamatelatos, Michael G.↗

Assessment and Control of Spacecraft Charging Risks on the International Space Station

The International Space Station (ISS) operates in the F2 region of Earth's ionosphere, orbiting at altitudes ranging from 350 to 450 km at an inclination of 51.6 degrees. The relatively dense, cool F2 ionospheric plasma suppresses surface charging processes much of the time, and the flux of relativistic electrons is low enough to preclude deep dielectric charging processes. The most important spacecraft charging processes in the ISS orbital environment are: 1) ISS electrical power system interactions with the F2 plasma, 2) magnetic induction processes resulting from flight through the geomagnetic field and, 3) charging processes that result from interaction with auroral electrons at high latitude. Recently, the continuing review and evaluation of putative ISS charging hazards required by the ISS Program Office revealed that ISS charging could produce an electrical shock hazard to the ISS crew during extravehicular activity (EVA). ISS charging risks are being evaluated in an ongoing measurement and analysis campaign. The results of ISS charging measurements are combined with a recently developed model of ISS charging (the Plasma Interaction Model) and an exhaustive analysis of historical ionospheric variability data (ISS Ionospheric Specification) to evaluate ISS charging risks using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods. The PRA combines estimates of the frequency of occurrence and severity of the charging hazards with estimates of the reliability of various hazard controls systems, as required by NASA s safety and risk management programs, to enable design and selection of a hazard control approach that minimizes overall programmatic and personnel risk. The PRA provides a quantitative methodology for incorporating the results of the ISS charging measurement and analysis campaigns into the necessary hazard reports, EVA procedures, and ISS flight rules required for operating ISS in a safe and productive manner.

Koontz, Steve↗

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA attempts to determine the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks (and their corresponding uncertainties, if known) to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the mircro-meteoroid & orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. With so many uncertainties believed to be present in the models used within BUMPER II, providing uncertainty bounds with BUMPER II results would appear to be essential to properly evaluating its predictions of MMOD risk. The uncertainties in BUMPER II come primarily from three areas: damage prediction/ballistic limit equations, environment models, and failure criteria definitions. In order to quantify the overall uncertainty bounds on MMOD risk predictions, the uncertainties in these three areas must be identified. In this paper, possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the shuttle and station versions of BUMPER II are presented and discussed. We begin the paper with a review of the current approaches used by NASA to perform a PRA for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, followed by a review of the results of a recent sensitivity analysis performed by NASA using the shuttle version of the BUMPER II code. Following a discussion of the various equations that are encoded in BUMPER II, we propose several possible approaches for establishing uncertainty bounds for the equations within BUMPER II. We conclude with an evaluation of these approaches and present a recommendation regarding which of them would be the most appropriate to follow.

Schonberg, W. P.↗

Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

Lawrence, Scott L.↗

Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

Guarro, Sergio B.↗