SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “predictive analysis technics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1997

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability in Reanalysis Products - Volume 13

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) have produced multi-year global assimilations of historical data employing fixed analysis systems. These "reanalysis" products are ideally suited for studying short-term climatic variations. The availability of multiple reanalysis products also provides the opportunity to examine the uncertainty in the reanalysis data. The purpose of this document is to provide an updated estimate of seasonal and interannual variability based on the DAO and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the 15-year period 1980-1995. Intercomparisons of the seasonal means and their interannual variations are presented for a variety of prognostic and diagnostic fields. In addition, atmospheric potential predictability is re-examined employing selected DAO reanalysis variables.

Min, Wei↗

NASA NTRS1986

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Pattern recognition of satellite cloud imagery for improved weather prediction

The major accomplishment was the successful development of a method for extracting time derivative information from geostationary meteorological satellite imagery. This research is a proof-of-concept study which demonstrates the feasibility of using pattern recognition techniques and a statistical cloud classification method to estimate time rate of change of large-scale meteorological fields from remote sensing data. The cloud classification methodology is based on typical shape function analysis of parameter sets characterizing the cloud fields. The three specific technical objectives, all of which were successfully achieved, are as follows: develop and test a cloud classification technique based on pattern recognition methods, suitable for the analysis of visible and infrared geostationary satellite VISSR imagery; develop and test a methodology for intercomparing successive images using the cloud classification technique, so as to obtain estimates of the time rate of change of meteorological fields; and implement this technique in a testbed system incorporating an interactive graphics terminal to determine the feasibility of extracting time derivative information suitable for comparison with numerical weather prediction products.

Gautier, Catherine↗

NASA NTRS2004

BASS Code Development

The BASS computational aeroacoustic code solves the fully nonlinear Euler equations in the time domain in two-dimensions. The acoustic response of the stator is determined simultaneously for the first three harmonics of the convected vortical gust of the rotor. The spatial mode generation, propagation and decay characteristics are predicted by assuming the acoustic field away from the stator can be represented as a uniform flow with small harmonic perturbations superimposed. The computed field is then decomposed using a joint temporal-spatial transform to determine the wave amplitudes as a function of rotor harmonic and spatial mode order. This report details the following technical aspects of the computations and analysis. 1) the BASS computational technique; 2) the application of periodic time shifted boundary conditions; 3) the linear theory aspects unique to rotor-stator interactions; and 4) the joint spatial-temporal transform. The computational results presented herein are twofold. In each case, the acoustic response of the stator is determined simultaneously for the first three harmonics of the convected vortical gust of the rotor. The fan under consideration here like modern fans is cut-off at +, and propagating acoustic waves are only expected at 2BPF and 3BPF. In the first case, the computations showed excellent agreement with linear theory predictions. The frequency and spatial mode order of acoustic field was computed and found consistent with linear theory. Further, the propagation of the generated modes was also correctly predicted. The upstream going waves propagated from the domain without reflection from the in ow boundary. However, reflections from the out ow boundary were noticed. The amplitude of the reflected wave was approximately 5% of the incident wave. The second set of computations were used to determine the influence of steady loading on the generated noise. Toward this end, the acoustic response was determined with three steady loading conditions: design, low-loading, high-loading. The overall trend showed significant (approximately 10 dB) increases in the generated noise for the highly loaded stator.

Sawyer, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1975

Main principles used for building up a data bank for the long-term storage and retrieval of scientific space data

Methodological, technical, and practical organizational problems are considered of constructing a long term data bank. Data processing flowcharts are presented which are based on an analysis of the tasks which the data bank must fulfill, an estimate of the existing and predicted data flows in the processing center, and the selection of the data storage media and the forms in which the data are presented. Questions related to the use of standard and special hardware and software in the data bank are discussed. Reasons are presented for the adopted structure of the document-fact type information retrieval system which permits the mechanization and automation of various stages in the retrieval and selection of the data.

Zlotin, G. N.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions from the Drag Prediction Workshop

A simple, graphical framework is presented for robust statistical evaluation of results obtained from N-Version testing of a series of RANS CFD codes. The solutions were obtained by a variety of code developers and users for the June 2001 Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration used for the computational tests is the DLR-F4 wing-body combination previously tested in several European wind tunnels and for which a previous N-Version test had been conducted. The statistical framework is used to evaluate code results for (1) a single cruise design point, (2) drag polars and (3) drag rise. The paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning of the results, especially with respect to predictability, Validation, and reporting of solutions.

Hemsch, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Experimental Aerothermodynamics In Support Of The Columbia Accident Investigation

The technical foundation for the most probable damage scenario reported in the Columbia Accident Investigation Board's final report was largely derived from synergistic aerodynamic/aerothermodynamic wind tunnel measurements and inviscid predictions made at NASA Langley Research Center and later corroborated with engineering analysis, high fidelity numerical viscous simulations, and foam impact testing near the close of the investigation. This report provides an overview of the hypersonic aerothermodynamic wind tunnel program conducted at NASA Langley and illustrates how the ground-based heating measurements provided early insight that guided the direction and utilization of agency resources in support of the investigation. Global surface heat transfer mappings, surface streamline patterns, and shock shapes were measured on 0.0075 scale models of the Orbiter configuration with and without postulated damage to the thermal protection system. Test parametrics include angle of attack from 38 to 42 degs, sideslip angles of 38 to 42 degs, sideslip angles of plus or minus 1 deg, Reynolds numbers based upon model length from 0.05 x 10(exp 6) to 6.5 x 10(exp 6), and normal shock density ratios of 5 (Mach 6 Air) and 12 (Mach 6 CF4). The primary objective of the testing was to provide surface heating characteristics on scaled Orbiter models with outer mold line perturbations to simulate various forms of localized surface damage to the thermal protection system. Initial experimental testing conducted within two weeks of the accident simulated a broad spectrum of thermal protection system damage to the Orbiter windward surface and was used to refute several hypothesized forms of thermal protection system damage, which included gouges in the windward thermal protection system tiles, breaches through the wing new the main landing gear door, and protuberances along the wing leading edge that produced asymmetric boundary layer transition. As the forensic phase of the investigation developed and the condition of recovered debris was examined, increasing emphasis was placed on identifying wing leading edge damage (partially and fully missing reinforced carbon-carbon panels, and eventually holes in the wing leading edge with venting to the wing upper surface) that produced off-nominal heating trends consistent with extracted Orbiter flight recorder temperature data.

Horvath, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Predicting survival in heart failure case and control subjects by use of fully automated methods for deriving nonlinear and conventional indices of heart rate dynamics

BACKGROUND: Despite much recent interest in quantification of heart rate variability (HRV), the prognostic value of conventional measures of HRV and of newer indices based on nonlinear dynamics is not universally accepted. METHODS AND RESULTS: We have designed algorithms for analyzing ambulatory ECG recordings and measuring HRV without human intervention, using robust methods for obtaining time-domain measures (mean and SD of heart rate), frequency-domain measures (power in the bands of 0.001 to 0.01 Hz [VLF], 0.01 to 0.15 Hz [LF], and 0.15 to 0.5 Hz [HF] and total spectral power [TP] over all three of these bands), and measures based on nonlinear dynamics (approximate entropy [ApEn], a measure of complexity, and detrended fluctuation analysis [DFA], a measure of long-term correlations). The study population consisted of chronic congestive heart failure (CHF) case patients and sex- and age-matched control subjects in the Framingham Heart Study. After exclusion of technically inadequate studies and those with atrial fibrillation, we used these algorithms to study HRV in 2-hour ambulatory ECG recordings of 69 participants (mean age, 71.7+/-8.1 years). By use of separate Cox proportional-hazards models, the conventional measures SD (P<.01), LF (P<.01), VLF (P<.05), and TP (P<.01) and the nonlinear measure DFA (P<.05) were predictors of survival over a mean follow-up period of 1.9 years; other measures, including ApEn (P>.3), were not. In multivariable models, DFA was of borderline predictive significance (P=.06) after adjustment for the diagnosis of CHF and SD. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that HRV analysis of ambulatory ECG recordings based on fully automated methods can have prognostic value in a population-based study and that nonlinear HRV indices may contribute prognostic value to complement traditional HRV measures.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2001

2001 Flight Mechanics Symposium

This conference publication includes papers and abstracts presented at the Flight Mechanics Symposium held on June 19-21, 2001. Sponsored by the Guidance, Navigation and Control Center of Goddard Space Flight Center, this symposium featured technical papers on a wide range of issues related to attitude/orbit determination, prediction and control; attitude simulation; attitude sensor calibration; theoretical foundation of attitude computation; dynamics model improvements; autonomous navigation; constellation design and formation flying; estimation theory and computational techniques; Earth environment mission analysis and design; and, spacecraft re-entry mission design and operations. Government, industry, and the academic community participated in the preparation and presentation of these papers.

Flight mechanics↗

NASA NTRS2014

Loads and Structural Dynamics Requirements for Spaceflight Hardware

The purpose of this document is to establish requirements relating to the loads and structural dynamics technical discipline for NASA and commercial spaceflight launch vehicle and spacecraft hardware. Requirements are defined for the development of structural design loads and recommendations regarding methodologies and practices for the conduct of load analyses are provided. As such, this document represents an implementation of NASA STD-5002. Requirements are also defined for structural mathematical model development and verification to ensure sufficient accuracy of predicted responses. Finally, requirements for model/data delivery and exchange are specified to facilitate interactions between Launch Vehicle Providers (LVPs), Spacecraft Providers (SCPs), and the NASA Technical Authority (TA) providing insight/oversight and serving in the Independent Verification and Validation role. In addition to the analysis-related requirements described above, a set of requirements are established concerning coupling phenomena or other interaction between structural dynamics and aerodynamic environments or control or propulsion system elements. Such requirements may reasonably be considered structure or control system design criteria, since good engineering practice dictates consideration of and/or elimination of the identified conditions in the development of those subsystems. The requirements are included here, however, to ensure that such considerations are captured in the design space for launch vehicles (LV), spacecraft (SC) and the Launch Abort Vehicle (LAV). The requirements in this document are focused on analyses to be performed to develop data needed to support structural verification. As described in JSC 65828, Structural Design Requirements and Factors of Safety for Spaceflight Hardware, implementation of the structural verification requirements is expected to be described in a Structural Verification Plan (SVP), which should describe the verification of each structural item for the applicable requirements. The requirement for and expected contents of the SVP are defined in JSC 65828. The SVP may also document unique verifications that meet or exceed these requirements with Technical Authority approval.

George James↗

NASA NTRS1989

Comparison study of gear dynamic computer programs at NASA Lewis Research Center

A comparison study was performed on four gear dynamic analysis computer programs developed under NASA/Army sponsorship. These programs are GRDYNMULT (a multimesh program applicable to a number of epicyclic systems), TELSGE (a single mesh program), PGT (a multimesh program applicable to a planetary system with three planets), and DANST (a single mesh program). The capabilities and features, input and output options, and technical aspects of the programs were reviewed and compared. Results are presented in a concise tabular form. Parametric studies of the program models were performed to investigate the predicted results of the programs as input parameters such as speed, torque, and mesh damping were varied. In general, the program models predicted similar dynamic load and stress levels as operating conditions were varied. Flash temperature predictions from programs GRDYNMULT and TELSGE indicated similar trends; however, actual values were not in close agreement. The program GRDYNMULT was found to be the most versatile in system size, type, and analysis capabilities. The programs DANST, TELSGE, and PGT are more specialized for specific systems; however, in specific areas they provide a more detailed treatment than GRDYNMULT.

Zakrajsek, James J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis of the Orbiter's LH2 Feedline Flowliner

Work performed by Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) as part of an Independent Technical Assessment (ITA) for the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is summarized. The ITA goal was to establish a flight rationale in light of a history of fatigue cracking due to flow induced vibrations in the feedline flowliners that supply liquid hydrogen to the space shuttle main engines. Prior deterministic analyses using worst-case assumptions predicted failure in a single flight. The current work formulated statistical models for dynamic loading and cryogenic fatigue crack growth properties, instead of using worst-case assumptions. Weight function solutions for bivariant stressing were developed to determine accurate crack "driving-forces". Monte Carlo simulations showed that low flowliner probabilities of failure (POF = 0.001 to 0.0001) are achievable, provided pre-flight inspections for cracks are performed with adequate probability of detection (POD)-specifically, 20/75 mils with 50%/99% POD. Measurements to confirm assumed POD curves are recommended. Since the computed POFs are very sensitive to the cyclic loads/stresses and the analysis of strain gage data revealed inconsistencies with the previous assumption of a single dominant vibrant mode, further work to reconcile this difference is recommended. It is possible that the unaccounted vibrational modes in the flight spectra could increase the computed POFs.

Bonacuse, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Cost Models for MMC Manufacturing Processes

Processes for the manufacture of advanced metal matrix composites are rapidly approaching maturity in the research laboratory and there is growing interest in their transition to industrial production. However, research conducted to date has almost exclusively focused on overcoming the technical barriers to producing high-quality material and little attention has been given to the economical feasibility of these laboratory approaches and process cost issues. A quantitative cost modeling (QCM) approach was developed to address these issues. QCM are cost analysis tools based on predictive process models relating process conditions to the attributes of the final product. An important attribute, of the QCM approach is the ability to predict the sensitivity of material production costs to product quality and to quantitatively explore trade-offs between cost and quality. Applications of the cost models allow more efficient direction of future MMC process technology development and a more accurate assessment of MMC market potential. Cost models were developed for two state-of-the art metal matrix composite (MMC) manufacturing processes: tape casting and plasma spray deposition. Quality and Cost models are presented for both processes and the resulting predicted quality-cost curves are presented and discussed.

Elzey, Dana M.↗

NASA NTRS2023

HLPW-4: Wall-Modeled LES and Lattice-Boltzmann Technology Focus Group Workshop Summary

TTT↗

NASA NTRS1989

A review and update of the NASA aircraft noise prediction program propeller analysis system

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP) Propeller Analysis System (PAS) is a set of computational modules for predicting the aerodynamics, performance, and noise of propellers. The ANOPP PAS has the capability to predict noise levels for propeller aircraft certification and produce parametric scaling laws for the adjustment of measured data to reference conditions. A technical overview of the prediction techniques incorporated into the system is presented. The prediction system has been applied to predict the noise signature of a variety of propeller configurations including the effects of propeller angle of attack. A summary of these validation studies is discussed with emphasis being placed on the wind tunnel and flight test programs sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for the Piper Cherokee Lance aircraft. A number of modifications and improvements have been made to the system and both DEC VAX and IBM-PC versions of the system have been added to the original CDC NOS version.

Golub, Robert A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

COFS 1 research overview

The Control of Flexible Structures (COFS) program is divided into three areas of research. These three areas are controls/structures analysis development, ground test experiments, and in-space experiments. The ground test experiments are intended to validate analyses and to confirm through hardware tests our technical readiness to successfully fly the Mast hardware. There is this close relation to the results of ground tests and analytical predictions that must be understood before flight experiments may be attempted. Details relative to each program area are given.

Horner, G. C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

HLPW-4/GMGW-3: Wall-Modeled LES and Lattice-Boltzmann Technology Focus Group Workshop Summary

A summary of the nine submissions to the Wall-Modeled LES and Lattice-Boltzmann(WMLESLB) Technical Focus Group (TFG) at the 4th High lift Prediction Workshop is provided. The focus of this TFG was to assess the current capabilities of WMLES and Lattice-Boltzmann methods on a complex high-lift configuration across a wide range of angles of attack. Preliminary analysis of the submitted data suggests that>250𝑀spatial degrees of freedom are needed to accurately predict pitching moments at high angles of attack due to large pressure gradients present on the outboard slat and main element for𝛼 >17◦(corrected for free-air).While some scatter is reported in pitching moments at the low-angles of attack (𝛼 <11◦) - likely caused by differences in flap separation possibly due to low Reynolds number effects - excellent agreement is observed between the submissions near the𝐶𝐿,max state. Objective superiority over steady state RANS can be seen in terms of lack of excess outboard separation; a majority of the good quality WMLES and LB submissions predict wedge-shaped separation patterns consistent with the experimental oil flow. Differences in the onset of stall mechanism in the free-air configuration for𝛼 >20◦is reported with two distinct topologies observed. Topology A is characterized by the onset of corner-flow separation which progressively grows to produce a pitch break in free-air with an angle of attack increase from𝛼=20.55◦to𝛼=21.47◦+𝜖where𝜖is a small perturbation (varying between submissions and likely to be within±0.3◦). Topology Bis characterized by boundary layer weakness emanating from the inboard side of the wing-pylon juncture substantially larger than any weakness in the wing-body juncture (due to corner-flow);submissions in this category do not show any tendency for occurrence of a pitch break for the free-air configuration within the vicinity of𝛼=21.47◦. The in-tunnel simulations submitted by3 participants using different discretizations, grids and closure models show excellent agreement with the experiment in terms of a) integrated loads, b) surface flow-topology, and c) mechanism for the onset of inboard stall. Further evidence is provided to demonstrate both qualitative and quantitative superiority of all 3 WMLES submissions over a single steady state RANS submission to the workshop.

TTT↗

NASA NTRS2002

Systems Engineering Approach to Technology Integration for NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1-in-10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. To best direct technology development decisions, analytical models are employed to accurately predict the benefits of each technology toward potential space transportation architectures as well as the risks associated with each technology. Rigorous systems analysis provides the foundation for assessing progress toward safety and cost goals. The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Thomas, Dale↗