Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “predictive control”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

An Introduction to the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FAST-DERMS)

Deployment and capability of distributed energy resources (DER) in power systems is growing rapidly. These resources present an opportunity for low-cost provision of energy and grid services. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission recently provided rulings to enable market participation of these distribution-connected resources, but the prevailing strategies for their management may not scale well to meet future needs. This paper introduces the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FAST-DERMS) which was designed to address this need. In it we describe the architectural features of the approach, and a reference controls implementation employing a hierarchical coordination that includes stochastic optimization, model predictive control, and a simple real-time management scheme. Sample results from simulation show firm transmission-level service provision measured at the distribution substation.

grid architecture↗

An Introduction to the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FAST-DERMS): Preprint

Deployment and capability of distributed energy resources (DER) in power systems is growing rapidly. These resources present an opportunity for low-cost provision of energy and grid services. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission recently provided rulings to enable market participation of these distribution-connected resources, but the prevailing strategies for their management may not scale well to meet future needs. This paper introduces the Federated Architecture for Secure and Transactive Distributed Energy Management Solutions (FASTDERMS) which was designed to address this need. In it we describe the architectural features of the approach, and a reference controls implementation employing a hierarchical coordination that includes stochastic optimization, model predictive control, and a simple real-time management scheme. Sample results from simulation show firm transmission-level service provision measured at the distribution substation.

DERMS↗

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

Coordination of Energy Storage and Distributed Generation for Voltage Control and Peak-valley Filling

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution network (DN) poses challenges on voltage control. In addition, the growing integration of DERs also reshapes the traditional load profile. To comprehensively address the voltage control and peak-valley filling in DN, this paper proposes a model predictive control (MPC) based optimization framework. The proposed method can achieve coordinated voltage control and peak-valley filling by adjusting the reactive power output from distributed generations (DGs) and the charging/discharging of energy storage systems (ESS). The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations on a modified IEEE-123 bus system.

Zhang, Zhengfa [University of Tennessee, Knoxville↗

Development and Validation of Home Comfort System for Total Performance Deficiency/Fault Detection and Optimal Comfort Control

In this project, we developed and tested a learning-based home thermal model that facilitates the operation of a model predictive control (MPC)-based optimization agent and an automated fault detection and diagnosis (AFDD) agent. The home thermal model was constructed using a two-node resistor-capacitor model. Moreover, two accompanying parameter identification methods were introduced, least-squares and optimization. Based on the home thermal model, the MPC-based optimization agent was developed to optimize residential HVAC operation. Using two FDD methods, the AFDD agent was constructed to detect and diagnose two prevalent residential AC faults, airflow reduction and refrigerant undercharge. The home thermal model, along with the MPC-based optimization agent and AFDD agent, were tested at the Norman Test House, Miami Test House, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Test House A, and PNNL Test House B. Finally, they were also field tested in nine demonstration homes with real occupants.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Ultra-filtration(UF) units are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square (RMSE) metric. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing CCRO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks that enhance process efficiency and reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

From MAST-U to STEP: Power exhaust control challenges and opportunities

This work explores the challenges and opportunities for power exhaust control in STEP, informed by dedicated MAST-U experiments. The STEP system primarily relies on hydrogenic and argon gas injection into the divertors, compensating for transients originating in the plasma core. Fast transients (>10 Hz) that evolve too quickly for actuators to compensate must be absorbed passively; the enhanced transient buffering of the foreseen long-legged divertor provides a clear advantage over conventional geometries, as demonstrated in the MAST-U Super-X divertor. Experiments further indicate that STEP’s tight divertor baffling enables near-independent control of the upper and lower divertors. The most challenging transients are expected from power-sharing fluctuations, as MAST-U experiments observed extremely fast dynamics. Fluctuations from core pellet fuelling remain relatively benign due to the small pellet size according to simulations. Exhaust control in a reactor like STEP requires an integrated approach befitting its machine-critical nature. A predictive control element, integrated with core plasma control, allows pre-emptive preparation of the divertor for incoming transients. An observer-based diagnostic approach is foreseen to monitor the divertor in the challenging reactor environment, supported by an extended diagnostic set in the non-nuclear phase to validate the required dynamic models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Traffic Signal Control for Large-Scale Urban Traffic Networks: Real-World Experiments using Vision-Based Sensors

Effective control of traffic signals plays a critical role in ensuring smooth vehicle flow in urban areas. Expertly engineered traffic signal controllers can considerably minimize travel delays and enhance sustainability. In this paper, the team proposes the Model Predictive Control (MPC) traffic signal control strategy using real-time traffic flow data from a vision-based camera as feedback information. Also, a realistic signal timing plan that considers National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) constraints has been developed to be applied to real-world scenarios. The primary aim is to reduce the number of vehicles across all links in the controlled area, thereby optimizing traffic flow and reducing energy consumption. To validate the proposed method, several real-life experiments were conducted at 24 intersections in Chattanooga, Tennessee, by collaborating with traffic field engineers. These experiments demonstrated significant performance improvements in comparison to the existing method.

data processing↗

TEAMER Technical Support for Optimal Control of an Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter (CRADA Final Report)

This project will focus on running experiments that evaluate the benefits of using model predictive control (MPC) to optimize power absorbed by a laboratory-scale oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC). MPC is a promising technique to optimize wave energy converter (WEC) behavior while applying system constraints that can help promote structural integrity and device survivability, but there are few studies that experimentally test this control scheme on WECs. Therefore, the Participant is proposing a series of tests that will assess the benefits of MPC experimentally in response to a variety of sea states. For these tests, the Participant will provide the OSWEC device and Data Acquisition (DAQ) system, and request support from the Contractor to use and operate the wave tank for experiments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NMPC for Mode-Switching Operation of Reversible Solid Oxide Cell Systems

Solid oxide cells (SOCs) are a promising dual-mode technology that generates hydrogen through high-temperature water electrolysis and generates power through a fuel cell reaction that consumes hydrogen. Reversible operation of SOCs requires a transition between these two modes for hydrogen production setpoints as the demand and price of electricity fluctuate. Moreover, a well-functioning control system is important to avoid cell degradation during mode-switching operation. In this work, we apply nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) to an SOC module and supporting equipment and compare NMPC performance to classical proportional integral (PI) control strategies, while ramping between the modes of hydrogen and power production. While both control methods provide similar performance in many metrics, NMPC significantly reduces cell thermal gradients and curvatures (mixed spatial-temporal partial derivatives) during mode switching. A dynamic process flowsheet of the reversible SOC system was developed in the open-source, equation-based IDAES modeling framework. Our IDAES dynamic simulation results show that NMPC can ramp the SOC system between hydrogen and power production targets within short mode-switching times. Moreover, NMPC can comply with operating limits in the SOC system more effectively than PI, and only NMPC can directly enforce user-specified limits for mixed spatial-temporal partial derivatives of temperature. This allows for management of the trade-off be-tween operating efficiency and cell degradation, which is dependent on these temperature curvatures.

Li, Mingrui↗

Enhancing nanoscale charged colloid crystallization near a metastable liquid binodal

Achieving predictive control over crystallization using non-classical nucleation while avoiding kinetic traps would be a step towards designing materials with new functionalities. We address these challenges by inducing the bottom-up assembly of nanocrystals into ordered arrays, or superlattices. Using electrostatics—rather than density—to tune the interactions between particles, we watch self-assembly proceed through a metastable liquid phase. Here, we systematically investigate the phase behaviour as a function of quench conditions in situ and in real time using small-angle X-ray scattering. By fitting to colloid, liquid and superlattice models, we extract the time evolution of each phase and the system phase diagram, which we find to be consistent with short-range attractive interactions. Using the predictive power of the phase diagram, we establish control of the self-assembly rate over three orders of magnitude, and we identify one- and two-step self-assembly regimes, with only the latter implicating the metastable liquid as an intermediate. The presence of the metastable liquid increases the superlattice formation rate relative to the equivalent one-step pathway, and the superlattice order increases with the rate, revealing a generalizable kinetic strategy for promoting and enhancing ordered assembly.

Tanner, Christian P. N. [University of California,↗

Field testing and validation of a low-cost MPC for demand flexibility for grid-interactive K-12 schools

K-12 school buildings account for the highest energy consumption within the public sector. Implementing advanced HVAC controls in grid-interactive K-12 schools could bring substantial economic advantages and grid flexibility. Our previous study demonstrated that a low-cost model predictive control (MPC) solution, which coordinates multiple packaged units, can enable demand flexibility without major hardware upgrades. However, a significant gap remains between academic pilots and market-ready scalable solutions. This paper extends the previous single-site pilot to a multi-site demonstration involving three school campuses (95 total units) through a commercial technology transfer process. Addressing the challenge of verifying performance with sparse field data, we present a new statistical approach using Bayesian methods to estimate the MPC’s effect on peak demand. Unlike traditional methods, this approach robustly quantifies uncertainty in non-normal, limited datasets. The results confirm the solution’s replicability, achieving a 21.6–38.9% reduction in HVAC peak demand (10.8–22.1% at the site-level) with > 98% probability across diverse locations. Finally, we document critical barriers to scaling software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions–such as API instability and diverse legacy systems–and offer practical strategies to accelerate the commercial adoption of grid-interactive efficient buildings.

Ham, Sang Woo↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Transforming Aeration Energy in Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRFs) through Suboxic Nitrogen Removal (Final Report)

The objective of this project was to advance two key technological components—aeration control strategies and process design methodologies—to support the development and broader adoption of suboxic biological nitrogen removal (SBNR). The project focused on achieving the following three goals: • Enhance Model Predictive Control (MPC) Technology: Advance the DO/Nmaster MPC platform from its initial 2018 pilot deployment at the Chico Water Resource Recovery Facility in California to full-scale integration. This included partnering with a blower technology commercialization partner and incorporating machine learning (ML) capabilities to enable nationwide deployment. • Bridge Knowledge Gaps in SBNR Process Design: Address fundamental gaps in SBNR process understanding through controlled pilot-scale testing at a dedicated pilot facility. These efforts supported the development of robust kinetic models to inform reliable SBNR control, operational strategies, and design frameworks. • Demonstrate Full-Scale Implementation of Low DO/SBNR with ML: Transition low dissolved oxygen (DO)/SBNR coupled with ML from pilot-scale trials to full-scale demonstration in flow-through biological nutrient removal (BNR) systems, with the goal of enabling scalable, nationwide adoption in activated sludge treatment processes. The project included demonstration of SBNR at the pilot scale as performed by Hampton Roads Sanitation District (HRSD) and at the full-scale as performed by the Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts' (LACSD) Pomona Water Reclamation Plant (POWRP).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Time-Varying Output Delay Compensation-A Model-Free Approach and its Application on Cooperative On-Ramp Merging

This paper presents a model-free approach to compensate for time-varying output delay in networked control systems. The proposed architecture combines a model-free observer and the Smith predictor. The model-free observer estimates the current state while handling modeling errors and uncertainties of the system. The Smith predictor moves the effect of time delay outside the control closed-loop using the estimated delayed output and the actual output of the plant. The proposed method is applied to a cooperative on-ramp merging problem. First, an ultra-local model predictive control is implemented to provide a computationally efficient online speed planner agnostic to the vehicle dynamics. After that, a model-free observer is designed to estimate the current state. Finally, the proposed architecture is tested against a time-varying output delay with an upper bound of 200 milliseconds. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method with improved tracking of intervehicle distance.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗

EASY-SHIFT v Alpha

The software is a generic, price- and load-responsive control algorithm integrating heat pumps with thermal energy storage. The algorithm leverages simple models of the system and easily accessible data to schedule operation of heat pumps and thermal energy storage in ways that minimize the cost of operating the heating/cooling system. This tool is specifically designed to be easy to interact with, and something that industry partners are able to adopt. There are two current state of the art approaches. Industry tends to develop very simple algorithms, with predetermined schedules that are not capable of changing operation in response to changes in operating environment. For example, a control designed to avoid high-price electricity from 5-8 PM will not be able to adapt if the high-price period changes to 4-9 PM. Academia commonly develops algorithms called Model predictive control (MPC). MPC requires extensive data and highly trained staff to develop a specific type of simulation model of the building, connect the building to optimization algorithms, and leverage powerful computers. Industry, with limited time/finance budgets for any project, is resistant to adopting MPC due to the associated high complexity and cost.

Grant, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗

Large-scale simulation-based parametric analysis of an optimal precooling strategy for demand flexibility in a commercial office building

Achieving success with grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) is closely tied to the utilization of flexible loads. A valuable strategy involves the implementation of precooling techniques before high-demand events, such as peak hours, by adjusting zone air temperature setpoints. This leads to a reduction in thermal loads and peak electricity demand during these times, as the building’s thermal mass stores and subsequently releases thermal energy. However, the effectiveness of the pre-cooling optimization is highly contingent on specific conditions such as building thermal properties, weather conditions, utility rate structure, HVAC equipment sizing, etc. Therefore, investigating the impacts of these condition-specific factors is crucial, especially when considering precooling strategies that utilize thermal mass in commercial buildings. In this paper, we first devised a novel heuristic control approach that incorporates parameterized optimal precooling thermostat schedules to enhance demand flexibility in a commercial office building. Subsequently, we conducted a thorough performance evaluation of this control strategy. Here, the optimal thermostat schedule was parameterized using three optimization variables: the precooling start time, the precooling end time, and the precooling temperature setpoint. Utilizing the DOE medium-sized office building as the virtual testbed, we showed that the parameterized schedule effectively approximates model predictive control and requires drastically reduced computational overhead. In addition, we investigated the impact of different influencing factors on the optimal precooling strategy. These factors include building thermal mass, outdoor air conditions, and energy price profiles. Using high-performance computing, we simulated a total of 225 scenarios, consisting of three levels of thermal mass, five typical outdoor air temperature profiles, and fifteen time-of-use price plans. The results demonstrate that optimal thermostat scheduling could save substantial energy cost in medium-sized office buildings with heavy thermal mass but with some energy penalty. Although the potential for cost savings is lower in buildings with low and medium thermal mass, the energy penalty remains consistent in all three thermal mass scenarios. The study also highlights the need to account for zone diversity and recognize that a one-size-fits-all-zone setpoint schedule may not be suitable for all zones and can lead to unnecessary energy wastage. Furthermore, the results highlight that while outdoor air conditions play a role in cost and energy performance, the cooling load exerts a more immediate and substantial influence on cost savings in precooling strategies. Although cost savings are comparable under certain conditions with the same cooling load, observed deviations in energy penalty indicate potential disparities in the efficiency of the HVAC system during the load-shifting process. In addition, the duration of peak pricing and the ratio between peak and off-peak times exhibit clear correlations with cost savings and energy consumption, aligning with intuitive expectations. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing precooling strategies in office buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗