Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “predictive distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

Very Large Array-RATAN 600 observations of a solar active region

VLA-RATAN-600 observations of the sun around the partial solar eclipse in July 1990 are discussed. The relatively flat spectrum of the extended emission is attributed to the optically thin thermal bremsstrahlung of electrons trapped in a magnetic loop at coronal temperatures. Step-spectrum sunspot-associated emission is attributed to thermal gyroresonance radiation at different heights along the leg of a loop joining regions of positive magnetic polarity. Comparisons with predicted distributions of gyroresonance radio indicate that compact sunspot-associated sources lie at heights of 2500-17,500 km above the photosphere. Differences in the observed and predicted microwave emission suggest an inhomogeneous distribution of thermal plasma in the corona above the sunspot or the presence of localized flux tubes containing higher density plasma or nonpotential fields.

Bogod, V. M.↗

Establishing model credibility for process-microstructure-property relationships in additive manufacturing using exascale computing

Additive Manufacturing (AM) of alloys holds significant promise as a disruptive technology in various industries, yet its adoption is often hindered by challenges in achieving consistent part quality. These issues are primarily due to the complex process-microstructure-property (PSP) relationships inherent to AM. Computational models can greatly aid in understanding these relationships, but their widespread impact and adoption has been limited by a lack of validated, open-source, and computationally efficient PSP modeling frameworks and hardware limitations. Here, this study leverages the ExaAM software suite and data from the AMBench-2018 series of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) benchmark experiments to perform a comprehensive model assessment, including verification, validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. The RADICAL-EnTK workflow manager was used to perform an ensemble of heat transport, solidification, and mechanical response simulations on the exascale computer Frontier, considering uncertainties in critical model inputs such as laser spot size and nucleation parameters, and consisting of 125 explicit grain structure simulations and 7875 crystal plasticity simulations. For a selected location within the Inconel 625 AMBench-2018 test artifact, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification were performed using the predicted distributions of grain structure and mechanical properties. Qualitative agreement was found between the predicted grain size and texture and the observed AMBench-2018 microstructure, the mean predicted yield stress was within 5% of the experimental measurement mean, and the mean predicted engineering stress at 5% strain was within 10% of the experimental measurement mean. The insights gained from development and validation of the ExaAM PSP modeling framework will help guide future directions for enhancing the credibility and reliability of PSP models in AM, thereby accelerating the adoption of AM technologies in various industries.

Additive manufacturing↗

Evaluating the X2 initial core zero power physics tests with Serpent-Ants

The validation of the Ants nodal neutronics code for VVER applications is started by modelling the zero power physics tests for the initial core of the Khmelnitsky 2 nuclear power plant as described in the X2 benchmark using the Serpent-Ants two step neutronics calculation chain. The Ants prediction compare favorably against an earlier continuous energy Monte-Carlo reference solution as well as the measured data, except for discrepancies in the SCRAM worth between predicted and measured values. Similar discrepancies have been previously reported for VVER-1000 reactors, and the Ants predicted SCRAM worths match well with the Serpent results. Additionally, the assembly power distribution and axial power distribution predicted by Ants for the critical HZP state of the reactor are also compared to a reference Serpent solution with very good results. Lastly, an investigation into the effects of the few-group structure used in the nodal calculations and the use or lack of leakage correction for group constants on the results shows that the best accuracy is reached with seven or eight energy groups without leakage correction, although a reasonable accuracy can also be obtained with two or three energy groups using fundamental mode leakage correction. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Thorium concentrations in the lunar surface. II - Deconvolution modeling and its application to the regions of Aristarchus and Mare Smythii

The broad angular response which characterized the Apollo gamma ray spectrometer resulted in a loss of spatial resolution and some of the contrast in determining surface concentrations within lunar regions small compared to the field of view. A deconvolution technique has been developed which removes much of this instrumental effect, thereby improving both spatial resolution and accuracy at the cost of a loss in precision. Geometric models of regional thorium distribution are convoluted through the response function of the instrument to yield a predicted distribution which is compared with the observed data field for quality of fit. Application to areas which include Aristarchus and Mare Smythii confirm some geological relationships and fail to support others.

Haines, E. L.↗

Gravitational lensing frequencies - Galaxy cross-sections and selection effects

Four issues - (1) the best currently available data on the galaxy velocity-dispersion distribution, (2) the effects of finite core radii potential ellipticity on lensing cross sections, (3) the predicted distribution of lens image separations compared to observational angular resolutions, and (4) the preferential inclusion of lens systems in flux limited samples - are considered in order to facilitate more realistic predictions of multiple image galaxy-quasar lensing frequencies. It is found that (1) the SIS lensing parameter F equals 0.047 +/-0.019 with almost 90 percent contributed by E and S0 galaxies, (2) observed E and S0 core radii are remarkably small, yielding a factor of less than about 2 reduction in total lensing cross sections, (3) 50 percent of galaxy-quasar lenses have image separations greater than about 1.3 arcsec, and (4) amplification bias factors are large and must be carefully taken into account. It is concluded that flat universe models excessively dominated by the cosmological constant are not favored by the small observed galaxy-quasar lensing rate.

Fukugita, Masataka↗

Simulation of real-gas effects on pressure distributions for aeroassist flight experiment vehicle and comparison with prediction

Pressure distributions measured on a 60 degree half-angle elliptic cone, raked off at an angle of 73 degrees from the cone centerline and having an ellipsoid nose (ellipticity equal to 2.0 in the symmetry plane) are presented for angles of attack from -10 degrees to 10 degrees. The high normal shock density ratio aspect of a real gas was simulated by testing in Mach 6 air and CF sub 4 (density ratio equal to 5.25 and 12.0, respectively). The effects of Reynolds number, angle of attack, and normal shock density ratio on these measurements are examined, and comparisons with a three dimensional Euler code known as HALIS are made. A significant effect of density ratio on pressure distributions on the cone section of the configuration was observed; the magnitude of this effect decreased with increasing angle of attack. The effect of Reynolds number on pressure distributions was negligible for forebody pressure distributions, but a measurable effect was noted on base pressures. In general, the HALIS code accurately predicted the measured pressure distributions in air and CF sub 4.

Micol, John R.↗

Overview of helicopter wake and airloads technology

An overview of helicopter aerodynamics technology is presented with emphasis on rotor wake and airloads methodology developed at the United Technologies Research Center (UTRC). The evolution over the past twenty years of various levels of computerized wake geometry models at UTRC, such as undistorted wake, prescribed empirical wake, predicted distorted wake, and generalized wake models for the hover and forward flight regimes, is reviewed. The requirement for accurate wake modeling for flow field and airload prediction is demonstrated by comparisons of theoretical and experimental results. These results include blade pressure distributions predicted from a recently developed procedure for including the rotor wake influence in a full potential flow analysis. Predictions of the interactional aerodynamics of various helicopter components (rotor, fuselage, and tail) are also presented. It is concluded that, with advanced computers and the rapidly progressing computational aerodynamics technology, significant progress toward reliable prediction of helicopter airloads is forseeable in the near future.

Landgrebe, A. J.↗

Model-based quantification of margins and uncertainties in metal additive manufacturing for process design and qualification

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) has the potential to enable the production of components with novel designs and material properties unachievable otherwise. However, process repeatability is a challenge, making qualification ill-defined and greatly reducing the utility of what could be an important manufacturing technology. In this work, a combination of modeling, uncertainty quantification (UQ), and experimentation are used in an effort to predict and bound the range of possible outcomes of the LPBF process. Quantities of interest predicted are melt pool dimensions, microstructure features, and mechanical distortions. A combination of high fidelity thermal-fluid models, microstructure growth models, and reduced fidelity, rapid thermal and mechanical models are used. Uncertainty propagation techniques are used to predict probability distributions of quantities of interest from estimates of process uncertainties. Repeated experiments are done to quantify observed probability distributions and compared to predicted distributions to determine if predictions are precise and accurate. Novel modeling methods are microstrucutre characterization techniques are also discussed. It is found that high fidelity models do a generally good job bounding experimentally observed melt pool morphologies for both bead-on-plate and powder bed cases. Microstructure models are able to bound a number of experimentally observed microstructure statistics, but with low precision due to challenges with calibrating the microstructure growth model parameters. A developed modified inherent strain distortion model does not accurately predict observed distortions. A lumped laser distortion model shows promise in being both accurately and precisely bounding observed outcomes from the deflection comb build, but requires further evaluation on more builds and geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Design Principles for Optimum Performance of Porous Carbons in Lithium-Sulfur Batteries

Here, a series of experiments is presented that establishes for the first time the role of some of the key design parameters of porous carbons including surface area, pore volume, and pore size on battery performance. A series of hierarchical porous carbons is used as a model system with an open, 3D, interconnected porous framework and highly controlled porosity. Specifically, carbons with surface areas ranging from ≈500–2800 m 2 g -1 , pore volume from ≈0.6–5 cm 3 g -1 , and pore size from micropores (≈1 nm) to large mesopores (≈30 nm) are synthesized and tested. At high sulfur loadings (≈80 wt% S), pore volume is more important than surface area with respect to sulfur utilization. Mesopore size, in the range tested, does not affect the sulfur utilization. No relationship between porosity and long-term cycle life is observed. All systems fail after 200–300 cycles, which is likely due to the consumption of the LiNO 3 additive over cycling. Moreover, cryo-scanning transmission electron microscopy imaging of these carbon–sulfur composites combined with X-ray diffraction (XRD) provides further insights into the effect of initial sulfur distribution on sulfur utilization while also revealing the inadequacy of the indirect characterization techniques alone in reliably predicting distribution of sulfur within porous carbon matrices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Composite Cure Process Modeling and Simulations using COMPRO(Registered Trademark) and Validation of Residual Strains using Fiber Optics Sensors

Composite cure process induced residual strains and warping deformations in composite components present significant challenges in the manufacturing of advanced composite structure. As a part of the Manufacturing Process and Simulation initiative of the NASA Advanced Composite Project (ACP), research is being conducted on the composite cure process by developing an understanding of the fundamental mechanisms by which the process induced factors influence the residual responses. In this regard, analytical studies have been conducted on the cure process modeling of composite structural parts with varied physical, thermal, and resin flow process characteristics. The cure process simulation results were analyzed to interpret the cure response predictions based on the underlying physics incorporated into the modeling tool. In the cure-kinetic analysis, the model predictions on the degree of cure, resin viscosity and modulus were interpreted with reference to the temperature distribution in the composite panel part and tool setup during autoclave or hot-press curing cycles. In the fiber-bed compaction simulation, the pore pressure and resin flow velocity in the porous media models, and the compaction strain responses under applied pressure were studied to interpret the fiber volume fraction distribution predictions. In the structural simulation, the effect of temperature on the resin and ply modulus, and thermal coefficient changes during curing on predicted mechanical strains and chemical cure shrinkage strains were studied to understand the residual strains and stress response predictions. In addition to computational analysis, experimental studies were conducted to measure strains during the curing of laminated panels by means of optical fiber Bragg grating sensors (FBGs) embedded in the resin impregnated panels. The residual strain measurements from laboratory tests were then compared with the analytical model predictions. The paper describes the cure process procedures and residual strain predications, and discusses pertinent experimental results from the validation studies.

Sreekantamurthy, Thammaiah↗

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A High Angle of Attack Inviscid Shuttle Orbiter Computation

An accurate description of the aerothermal environment is required to minimize the weight of the Thermal Protection System required on the leeside of winged reentry vehicles. The inability of ground-test facilities to reproduce the high enthalpy, separated flow present during reentry flight conditions, coupled with the prohibitive expense of flight tests, leads to the use of an analytical method - namely Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) - to describe the flow. While the ultimate goal of this work is to accurately predict the leeside flow and its associated thermal environment, an essential and reasonable first step towards that goal is a comparison of pressure predictions by a code with wind-tunnel data. Until such CFD pressure predictions agree with wind-tunnel test cases, there is little hope of accurately predicting the thermal environment at flight conditions. Thus, the objective of this study is to compare the pressure distributions predicted by inviscid, perfect gas CFD to Shuttle Orbiter wind-tunnel data and to address any significant issues encountered during the computation. While flight data is available for the Shuttle Orbiter, a wind-tunnel case is chosen for this study to allow a tractable problem for preliminary investigation. A wind-tunnel case allows the perfect gas assumption for the flow chemistry. This provides a significant computational savings over a several species finite-rate chemistry model which would be necessary if high-temperature effects present at flight conditions were to be included. In addition, by concentrating on the surface pressures, the analysis need only consider inviscid flow for general evaluation of the code capability. This further reduces the computational expense due to the absence of viscous terms and the associated decrease in the number of points required for the computational grid. Previous computational efforts (such as STEIN and HALIS) have been directed toward the windward surface quantities, primarily due to restrictions in treating either the winged geometry or its associated subsonic regions at high angle of attack. The code used for this study, the LAURA (Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm) code of Gnoffo, represents a state-of-the-art code for computing the flow over complex configurations at hypersonic speeds. In the study, the LAURA code is applied to a wind-tunnel condition to initiate the assessment of the code's ability to predict the flow over a relatively complex hypersonic vehicle at high angles of attack. This presentation is used to highlight the pertinent results of a more detailed investigation of the inviscid calculation over the Shuttle Orbiter with the LAURA code.

William L. Kleb↗

Topography and functional traits shape the distribution of key shrub plant functional types in low-Arctic tundra

The expansion of shrubs in the Arctic tundra fundamentally modifies land-atmosphere interactions. However, it remains unclear how shrub distribution and expansion differ across key species due to challenges with discriminating tundra plant species at regional scales. Here, we combined multi-scale, multi-platform remote sensing and in situ trait measurements to elucidate the distribution patterns and primary controls of two representative deciduous-tall-shrub (DTS) genera, Alnus and Salix, in low-Arctic tundra. We show that topographic features were a key control on DTSs, creating heterogeneous, but predictable distributions of Alnus and Salix fractional cover (fCover). Alnus was more tolerant of elevation and slope and was found on hilly uplands (slope >10°) within a specific elevational band (200–400 m above sea level [MSL]). In contrast, Salix occurred at lower elevations (50–300 m MSL) on gentler slopes (3-10°) and required adequate soil moisture associated with its profligate water use. We also show that niche differentiation between Alnus and Salix changed with patch size, where larger patches were more specialized in resource requirements than individual plants of Alnus and Salix. To understand what constrains the growth of DTSs at locations with low fCover, we developed environmental limiting factor models, which showed that topography limits the upper bound of Alnus and Salix fCover in 69.2% and 48.7% of the landscape, respectively. These findings highlight a critical need to better understand and represent topography-controlled processes and functional traits in regulating shrub distribution, as well as a need for more detailed species classification to predict shrubification in the Arctic.

alder↗

Comparing XRISM Cluster Velocity Dispersions with Predictions from Cosmological Simulations: Are Feedback Models Too Ejective?

The dynamics of the intracluster medium (ICM), the hot plasma that fills galaxy clusters, are shaped by gravity-driven cluster mergers and feedback from supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in the cluster cores. XRISM measurements of ICM velocities in several clusters offer insights into these processes. We compare XRISM measurements for nine galaxy clusters (Virgo, Perseus, Centaurus, Hydra-A, PKS 0745–19, A2029, Coma, A2319, and Ophiuchus) with predictions from three state-of-the-art cosmological simulation suites, TNG-Cluster, the Three Hundred Project GADGET-X, and GIZMO-SIMBA, that employ different models of feedback. In cool cores, XRISM reveals systematically lower velocity dispersions than the simulations predict, with all 10 measurements below the median simulated values by a factor of 1.5–1.7 on average and all falling within the bottom 10% of the predicted distributions. The observed kinetic-to-total pressure ratio is also lower, with a median value of 2.2%, compared to the predicted 5.0%–6.5% for the three simulations. Outside the cool cores and in non-cool-core (NCC) clusters, simulations show better agreement with XRISM measurements, except for the outskirts of the relaxed, cool-core cluster A2029, which exhibits an exceptionally low kinetic pressure support (<1%), with none of the simulated systems in either of the three suites reaching such low levels. The NCC Coma and A2319 exhibit dispersions at the lower end but within the simulated spread. Our comparison suggests that the three numerical models may overestimate the kinetic effects of SMBH feedback in cluster cores. Additional XRISM observations of NCC clusters will clarify if there is a systematic tension in the gravity-dominated regime as well.

galaxy clusters↗

Three-dimensional fuel pin model validation by prediction of hydrogen distribution in cladding and comparison with experiment

To correctly describe and predict this hydrogen distribution there is a need for multi-physics coupling to provide accurate three-dimensional azimuthal, radial, and axial temperature distributions in the cladding. Coupled high-fidelity reactor-physics codes with a sub-channel code as well as with a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool have been used to calculate detailed temperature distributions. These high-fidelity coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics code systems are coupled further with the fuel-performance BISON code with a kernel (module) for hydrogen. Both hydrogen migration and precipitation/dissolution are included in the model. Results from this multi-physics analysis is validated utilizing calculations of hydrogen distribution using models informed by data from hydrogen experiments and PIE data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exact Bayesian computation using H-functions

In the Bayesian Statistics, the use of conjugate prior distributions allows to obtain exact posterior quantities, avoiding the use of approximate methods. However, there are only a few conjugate structures available, which limits the use in practical problems. In this work we propose a general procedure to obtain the posterior distribution in an exact form in non-conjugate location parameter models with known (possibly, heteroskedastic) variance. The theory is based on special functions, specifically the H-function, which embraces most of the probability distributions. We express explicitly in a computable form all the Bayesian tools for posterior inferences, that is the posterior and the posterior predictive distributions and their moments, as well as the cumulative posterior distribution. As an illustration we consider a problem in astronomy of estimating the distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud, the largest galaxy now orbiting the Milky Way Galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Secondary structure of rat and human amylin across force fields

The aggregation of human amylin has been strongly implicated in the progression of Type II diabetes. This 37-residue peptide forms a variety of secondary structures, including random coils, α-helices, and β-hairpins. The balance between these structures depends on the chemical environment, making amylin an ideal candidate to examine inherent biases in force fields. Rat amylin differs from human amylin by only 6 residues; however, it does not form fibrils. Therefore it provides a useful complement to human amylin in studies of the key events along the aggregation pathway. In this work, the free energy of rat and human amylin was determined as a function of α-helix and β-hairpin content for the Gromos96 53a6, OPLS-AA/L, CHARMM22/CMAP, CHARMM22*, Amberff99sb*-ILDN, and Amberff03w force fields using advanced sampling techniques, specifically bias exchange metadynamics. This work represents a first systematic attempt to evaluate the conformations and the corresponding free energy of a large, clinically relevant disordered peptide in solution across force fields. The NMR chemical shifts of rIAPP were calculated for each of the force fields using their respective free energy maps, allowing us to quantitatively assess their predictions. We show that the predicted distribution of secondary structures is sensitive to the choice of force-field: Gromos53a6 is biased towards β-hairpins, while CHARMM22/CMAP predicts structures that are overly α-helical. OPLS-AA/L favors disordered structures. Amberff99sb*-ILDN, AmberFF03w and CHARMM22* provide the balance between secondary structures that is most consistent with available experimental data. In contrast to previous reports, our findings suggest that the equilibrium conformations of human and rat amylin are remarkably similar, but that subtle differences arise in transient alpha-helical and beta-strand containing structures that the human peptide can more readily adopt. We hypothesize that these transient states enable dynamic pathways that facilitate the formation of aggregates and, eventually, amyloid fibrils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Strong plasma turbulence in the earth's electron foreshock

A quantitative model is developed to account for the distribution in magnitude and location of the intense plasma waves observed in the earth's electron foreshock given the observed rms levels of waves. In this model, nonlinear strong-turbulence effects cause solitonlike coherent wave packets to form and decouple from incoherent background beam-excited weak turbulence, after which they convect downstream with the solar wind while collapsing to scales as short as 100 m and fields as high as 2 V/m. The existence of waves with energy densities above the strong-turbulence wave-collapse threshold is inferred from observations from IMP 6 and ISEE 1 and quantitative agreement is found between the predicted distribution of fields in an ensemble of such wave packets and the actual field distribution observed in situ by IMP 6. Predictions for the polarization of plasma waves and the bandwidth of ion-sound waves are also consistent with the observations. It is shown that strong-turbulence effects must be incorporated in any comprehensive theory of the propagation and evolution of electron beams in the foreshock. Previous arguments against the existence of strong turbulence in the foreshock are refuted.

Robinson, P. A.↗