Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “predictor”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interval Predictor Models for Robust System Identification

This paper proposes a framework for the identification and uncertainty quantification of plant models according to multivariable data. The only restriction imposed upon such models is for their outputs to depend continuously on their parameters. An Interval Predictor Model (IPM) prescribes the parameters of a computational model as a path-connected set thereby making each predicted output an interval-valued function of its inputs. The formulation proposed seeks the parameter set for which the predicted outputs tightly enclose the data. This set, which is modeled as a semi-algebraic set of low-degree polynomials, enables the characterization of possibly strong parameter dependencies commonly found in practice. This uncertainty characterization makes the resulting plant model amenable to robust control approaches using polynomial optimization. Furthermore, we use non-convex scenario theory to assess the reliability of the resulting IPM. This assessment yields a distribution-free upper bound on the probability that future data will fall outside the predicted intervals.

interval↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implementation of AI/DEEP learning disruption predictor into a plasma control system

Abstract This paper reports on advances in the state‐of‐the‐art deep learning disruption prediction models based on the Fusion Recurrent Neural Network (FRNN) originally introduced in a 2019 NATURE publication [ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586‐019‐1116‐4 ]. In particular, the predictor now features not only the “disruption score,” as an indicator of the probability of an imminent disruption, but also a “sensitivity score” in real time to indicate the underlying reasons for the imminent disruption. This adds valuable physics interpretability for the deep learning model and can provide helpful guidance for control actuators now implemented into a modern plasma control system (PCS). The advance is a significant step forward in moving from modern deep learning disruption prediction to real‐time control and brings novel AI‐enabled capabilities relevant for application to the future burning plasma ITER system. Our analyses use large amounts of data from JET and DIII‐D vetted in the earlier NATURE publication. In addition to “when” a shot is predicted to disrupt, this paper addresses reasons “why” by carrying out sensitivity studies. FRNN is accordingly extended to use more channels of information, including measured DIII‐D signals such as (i) the “n1rms” signal that is correlated with the n = 1 modes with finite frequency, including neoclassical tearing mode and sawtooth dynamics; (ii) the bolometer data indicative of plasma impurity control; and (iii) “q‐min”—the minimum value of the safety factor relevant to the key physics of kink modes. The additional channels and interpretability features expand the ability of the deep learning FRNN software to provide information about disruption subcategories as well as more precise and direct guidance for the actuators in a PCS.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Spatiotemporal modeling of ecological and sociological predictors of West Nile virus in Suffolk County, NY, mosquitoes

Abstract Suffolk County, New York, is a locus for West Nile virus ( WNV ) infection in the American northeast that includes the majority of Long Island to the east of New York City. The county has a system of light and gravid traps used for mosquito collection and disease monitoring. In order to identify predictors of WNV incidence in mosquitoes and predict future occurrence of WNV , we have developed a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, beginning with over 40 ecological, meteorological, and built‐environment covariates. A mixed‐effects model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to WNV surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 using the R package “R‐INLA,” which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation ( SPDE ) approach. The integrated nested Laplace approximation ( INLA ) SPDE allows for simultaneous fitting of a temporal parameter and a spatial covariance, while incorporating a variety of likelihood functions and running in R statistical software on a home computer. We found that land cover classified as open water and woody wetlands had a negative association with WNV incidence in mosquitoes, and the count of septic systems was associated with an increase in WNV . Mean temperature at two‐week lag was associated with a strong positive impact, while mean precipitation at no lag and one‐week lag was associated with positive and negative impacts on WNV , respectively. Incorporation of spatiotemporal factors resulted in a marked increase in model goodness‐of‐fit. The predictive power of the model was evaluated on 2015 surveillance results, where the best model achieved a sensitivity of 80.9% and a specificity of 77.0%. The spatial covariate was mapped across the county, identifying a gradient of WNV prevalence increasing from east to west. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model improves upon previous approaches, and we recommend the INLA SPDE methodology as an efficient way to develop robust models from surveillance data to develop and enhance monitoring and control programs. Our study confirms previously found associations between weather conditions and WNV and suggests that wetland cover has a mitigating effect on WNV infection in mosquitoes, while high septic system density is associated with an increase in WNV infection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Morphological predictors for lymph node metastases on computed tomography in colon cancer

Introduction/Background: The aim of the study was to assess morphological predictors for lymph node metastases (Stage III disease) in colon cancer on computed tomography. Methods and materials: Ninety-four patients with histology-proven colon cancer (adenocarcinoma) who underwent elective primary curative resection between the years 2012 and 2014 were included. Contrast-enhanced CT examinations were independently reviewed by two blinded observers regarding tumor location, depth of tumor invasion, and presence of lymph node metastases. Ocular presence of internal heterogeneity and presence of irregular outer border were used as morphological criteria for lymph node involvement. Protocol-based histopathology after curative surgery served as reference standard. Sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values, and accuracy for each morphological criterion for prediction of stage III disease were calculated. Inter-observer agreement was compared using Kappa statistics. Results: According to histopathology, 59 patients were staged as I–II disease and 35 patients were staged as stage III disease. The presence of internal heterogeneity in a lymph node on CT resulted in moderate sensitivity (66–77%) but high specificity (95–95%) for prediction of Stage III disease by both observers. The presence of irregular outer border also resulted in poor sensitivity (49–54%) but high specificity (97–97%). The combination of either internal heterogeneity and/or irregular outer border per patient resulted in a moderate sensitivity (67–77%) and high specificity (95–95%), PPV (89–96%), and NPV (84–88%). Inter-observer agreement (Cohens Kappa) was 0.72. Consensus reading for the combined criteria resulted in sensitivity and specificity of 69% and 100%, respectively. Conclusion: Using morphological criteria for lymph node metastases on CT examination in patients with colon cancer results in high specificity but moderate sensitivity in predicting stage III disease.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Adenomatous-Dominant Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (AdBPH) as a Predictor for Clinical Success Following Prostate Artery Embolization: An Age-Matched Case–Control Study

PurposeTo investigate the clinical impact of performing prostate artery embolization (PAE) on patients with adenomatous-dominant benign prostatic hyperplasia (AdBPH).Materials and MethodsTwelve patients from the ongoing proSTatic aRtery EmbolizAtion for the treatMent of benign prostatic hyperplasia (STREAM) trial were identified as having AdBPH; defined as two or more adenomas within the central gland of ≥1 cm diameter on multi-parametric MRI (MP-MRI). These patients were age-matched with patients from the STREAM cohort, without AdBPH. Patients were followed up with repeat MP-MRI at 3 months and 1 year. International prostate symptom score (IPSS), international index for erectile function (IIEF), and quality of life assessment from the IPSS and EQ-5D-5S questionnaires were recorded pre-PAE and at 6 weeks, 3 months, and 1 year.ResultsThe mean age of patients was 68 (61–76). All patients had PAE as a day-case procedure. The technical success in the cohort was 23/24 (96%). There was a significant reduction in prostate volume following embolization with a median reduction of 34% (30–55) in the AdBPH group, compared to a mean volume reduction of 22% (9–44) in the non-AdBPH group (p = 0.04). There was a significant reduction in IPSS in the AdBPH group following PAE when compared with the control group [AdBPH median IPSS 8 (3–15) vs. non-AdBPH median IPSS 13 (8–18), p = 0.01]. IPSS QOL scores significantly improved in the AdBPH group (p = 0.007). There was no deterioration in sexual function in either group post-PAE.ConclusionsThis is the first time that AdBPH has been identified as being a predictor of clinical success following PAE.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Socio-Structural and Neighborhood Predictors of Incident Criminal Justice Involvement in a Population-Based Cohort of Young Black MSM and Transgender Women

Black men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women are disproportionately affected by criminal justice involvement (CJI) and HIV. This study recruited 618 young Black MSM and transgender women in Chicago, IL, using respondent-driven sampling between 2013 and 2014. Random effects logistic regression evaluated predictors of incident CJI over 18 months of follow-up. We report, controlling for respondent age, gender and sexual identity, spirituality (aOR 0.56, 95% CI 0.33-0.96), and presence of a mother figure (aOR 0.41, 95% CI 0.19-0.89) were protective against CJI. Economic hardship (financial or residential instability vs. neither aOR 2.23, 95% CI 1.10-4.51), two or more past episodes of CJI vs. none (aOR 2.66, 95% CI 1.40-5.66), and substance use (marijuana use vs. none aOR 2.79, 95% CI 1.23-6.34; other drug use vs. none aOR 4.49, 95% CI 1.66-12.16) were associated with CJI during follow-up. Research to identify and leverage resilience factors that can buffer the effects of socioeconomic marginalization may increase the effectiveness of interventions to address the socio-structural factors that increase the risk for CJI among Black MSM and transgender women. Given the intersection of incarceration, HIV and other STIs, and socio-structural stressors, criminal justice settings are important venues for interventions to reduce health inequities in these populations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Skeletal muscle mass as a predictor of the response to neo-adjuvant chemotherapy in locally advanced esophageal cancer

Undernutrition and sarcopenia are associated with a higher incidence of chemotherapy-related toxicity and a poor prognosis in several kinds of cancer, but the impact of sarcopenia on the outcomes of chemotherapy for esophageal cancer remains unclear. Thus, the purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate whether sarcopenia affects the efficacy and toxicities of chemotherapy for advanced esophageal cancer patients. Data were collected from 31 esophageal cancer patients who underwent neo-adjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery. Body composition was assessed at the start of chemotherapy by bioelectrical impedance analysis, and outcomes of chemotherapy were compared between sarcopenic and non-sarcopenic groups. Of the 31 patients, sarcopenia was observed in 16 (51.6%). The incidence of toxicities was not different between the two groups. However, as for pathologic response, a good therapeutic effect (Grade 2 or higher) was more common in the non-sarcopenic group than in the sarcopenic group (53.3% vs. 25.0%). Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia was an independent predictor of poor pathological response (odds ratio 8.02; P = 0.037). The results of this study suggest the potential utility of sarcopenia assessment in neoadjuvant patient selection strategies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Integrated OMICS platforms identify LAIR1 genetic variants as novel predictors of cross-sectional and longitudinal susceptibility to severe malaria and all-cause mortality in Kenyan children

Background: Severe malarial anaemia (SMA) is a leading cause of childhood mortality in holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum regions. Methods: To gain an improved understanding of SMA pathogenesis, whole genome and transcriptome profiling was performed in Kenyan children (n = 144, 3–36 months) with discrete non-SMA and SMA phenotypes. Leukocyte associated immunoglobulin like receptor 1 (LAIR1) emerged as a predictor of susceptibility to SMA (P b 1 × 10-2 , OR: 0.44–1.37), and was suppressed in severe disease (-1.69-fold, P = 0.004). To extend these findings, the relationship between LAIR1 polymorphisms [rs6509867 (16231CNA); rs2287827 (18835GNA)] and clinical outcomes were investigated in individuals (n = 1512, b5 years) at enrolment and during a 36-month longitudinal follow-up. Findings: Inheritance of the 16,231 recessive genotype (AA) increased susceptibility to SMA at enrolment (OR = 1.903, 95%CI: 1.252–2.891, P = 0.003), and longitudinally (RR = 1.527, 95%CI: 1.119–2.083, P = 0.008). Carriage of the 18,835 GA genotype protected against SMA cross-sectionally (OR = 0.672, 95%CI: 0.480–0.9439, P = 0.020). Haplotype carriage (C16231A/G18835A) also altered cross-sectional susceptibility to SMA: CG (OR = 0.717, 95%CI: 0.527–0.9675, P = 0.034), CA (OR = 0.745, 95%CI: 0.536–1.036, P = 0.080), and AG (OR = 1.641, 95%CI: 1.160–2.321, P = 0.005). Longitudinally, CA carriage was protective against SMA (RR = 0.715, 95%CI: 0.554–0.923, P = 0.010), while AG carriage had an additive effect on enhanced SMA risk (RR = 1.283, 95%CI: 1.057–1.557, P = 0.011). Variants that protected against SMA had elevated LAIR1 transcripts, while those with enhanced risk had lower expression (P b 0.05). Inheritance of 18,835 GA reduced all-cause mortality by 44.8% (HR = 0.552, 95%CI: 0.329–0.925, P = 0.024), while AG haplotype carriage increased susceptibility by 68% (HR = 1.680, 95%CI: 1.020–2.770, P = 0.040). Interpretation: These findings suggest LAIR1 is important for modulating susceptibility to SMA and all-cause childhood mortality.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predictors and correlations of phthalate metabolite concentrations in urine and seminal plasma among reproductive-aged men

Highlights: • Phthalate metabolite levels in urine and seminal plasma were detected among 687 men. • Measures taken from urine samples poorly predicted same-day seminal plasma levels. • Metabolite levels varied according to sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. • Venous infusion was associated with higher levels of MBP and DEHP metabolites. Certain phthalates are suspected to be endocrine disruptors that are adversely associated with male reproductive health. However, the predictors and correlations of phthalate metabolite concentrations in urine and seminal plasma among reproductive-aged men have not been thoroughly studied.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Distribution and predictors of urinary concentrations of phthalate metabolites and phenols among pregnant women in the Healthy Start Study

Highlights: • Urinary phthalate metabolites, phenols and parabens were detected during pregnancy. • Concentrations differed by maternal sociodemographic characteristics. • Results did not provide strong evidence for specific dietary sources of exposure. Phthalates and phenols are suspected endocrine disrupting chemicals that may adversely impact fetal outcomes following in utero exposure. Understanding predictors of exposure to phthalates and phenols during the prenatal period is important.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Variability and predictors of serum perfluoroalkyl substance concentrations during pregnancy and early childhood

Highlights: • Few longitudinal studies have examined child perfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS) exposure. • Childhood PFAS concentrations increased from birth to age 3 and decreased by age 8. • Sociodemographic factors (income, race, parity) were associated with PFAS. • Breastfeeding was associated with high PFAS concentrations at ages 3 and 8 years. • Exposure may be higher during a potentially sensitive period of development. Exposure to poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), ubiquitous and persistent environmental contaminants, could be associated with adverse health outcomes, but there are limited longitudinal data assessing patterns and predictors of exposure during childhood. We quantified concentrations of eight different PFAS in sera collected from women during pregnancy and children at delivery and ages 3 and 8 years in 367 mother-child pairs enrolled in a prospective cohort from 2003 to 2006. In general, median childhood PFAS concentrations increased from birth to age 3 and then decreased by age 8. Maternal serum PFAS concentrations during pregnancy were strongly correlated with cord serum concentrations (0.76 < r < 0.94), but were weakly correlated with childhood concentrations (0.12 < r < 0.30). Several sociodemographic factors were associated with maternal PFAS concentrations, including income, race, and parity. In children, serum PFAS concentrations were associated with maternal age at delivery, race, parity, and child age. Breastfeeding duration was positively associated with childhood PFAS concentrations at ages 3 and 8 years. In addition, stain repellant use was associated with higher perfluorooctanoic acid and perfluorohexane sulfonic acid concentrations at age 8 years. Serum PFAS concentrations are higher during early childhood, a potentially sensitive period of development, and were highest among breastfed children.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗