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An Adaptive Numeric Predictor-corrector Guidance Algorithm for Atmospheric Entry Vehicles

An adaptive numeric predictor-corrector guidance is developed for atmospheric entry vehicles which utilize lift to achieve maximum footprint capability. Applicability of the guidance design to vehicles with a wide range of performance capabilities is desired so as to reduce the need for algorithm redesign with each new vehicle. Adaptability is desired to minimize mission-specific analysis and planning. The guidance algorithm motivation and design are presented. Performance is assessed for application of the algorithm to the NASA Entry Research Vehicle (ERV). The dispersions the guidance must be designed to handle are presented. The achievable operational footprint for expected worst-case dispersions is presented. The algorithm performs excellently for the expected dispersions and captures most of the achievable footprint.

Spratlin, Kenneth Milton

An accurate and efficient satellite long-term orbit predictor employing 'fictitious' mean orbital elements

By using Von Zeipel's generating function procedure the perturbing earth gravitational potential is averaged with respect to the fast variable (mean anomaly) and a set of 'fictitous' mean orbital elements which can be used as a long-term satellite orbit predictor is obtained. The set of elements is shown to be a function of the nonlinear square of the second zonal harmonic coefficient. It is found that the long-term orbit prediction using the 'fictitous' mean elements is as accurate as that using the osculating elements, but has a computing speed about two orders of magnitude faster. For short-term orbit predictions, the osculating elements approach must be used.

Tang, Charles C. H.

A predictor-corrector guidance algorithm for use in high-energy aerobraking system studies

A three-degree-of-freedom predictor-corrector guidance algorithm has been developed specifically for use in high-energy aerobraking performance evaluations. The present study reports on both the development and capabilities of this guidance algorithm to the design of manned Mars aero-braking vehicles. Atmospheric simulations are performed to demonstrate the applicability of this algorithm and to evaluate the effect of atmospheric uncertainties upon the mission requirements. The off-nominal conditions simulated result from atmospheric density and aerodynamic characteristic mispredictions. The guidance algorithm is also used to provide relief from the high deceleration levels typically encountered in a high-energy aerobraking mission profile. Through this analysis, bank-angle modulation is shown to be an effective means of providing deceleration relief. Furthermore, the capability of the guidance algorithm to manage off-nominal vehicle aerodynamic and atmospheric density variations is demonstrated.

Braun, Robert D.

Hybrid automated reliability predictor integrated work station (HiREL)

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability (HiREL) workstation tool system marks another step toward the goal of producing a totally integrated computer aided design (CAD) workstation design capability. Since a reliability engineer must generally graphically represent a reliability model before he can solve it, the use of a graphical input description language increases productivity and decreases the incidence of error. The captured image displayed on a cathode ray tube (CRT) screen serves as a documented copy of the model and provides the data for automatic input to the HARP reliability model solver. The introduction of dependency gates to a fault tree notation allows the modeling of very large fault tolerant system models using a concise and visually recognizable and familiar graphical language. In addition to aiding in the validation of the reliability model, the concise graphical representation presents company management, regulatory agencies, and company customers a means of expressing a complex model that is readily understandable. The graphical postprocessor computer program HARPO (HARP Output) makes it possible for reliability engineers to quickly analyze huge amounts of reliability/availability data to observe trends due to exploratory design changes.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.

A predictor-corrector scheme for vortex identification

A new algorithm for identifying and characterizing vortices in complex flows is presented. The scheme uses both the vorticity and pressure fields. A skeleton line along the center of a vortex is produced by a two-step predictor-corrector scheme. The technique uses the vector field to move in the direction of the skeleton line and the scalar field to correct the location in the plane perpendicular to the skeleton line. A general vortex cross section can be concisely defined with five parameters at each point along the skeleton line. The details of the method and examples of its use are discussed.

Singer, Bart A.

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 3: HARP Graphics Oriented (GO) input user's guide

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of highly reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed at the outset to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems, and some programs have been beta tested within the aerospace community for over 8 years. This document is a user's guide for the HiRel graphical preprocessor Graphics Oriented (GO) program. GO is a graphical user interface for the HARP engine that enables the drawing of reliability/availability models on a monitor. A mouse is used to select fault tree gates or Markov graphical symbols from a menu for drawing.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 1: HARP introduction and user's guide

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems, and some programs have been beta tested, within the aerospace community for over 8 years. Volume 1 provides an introduction to the HARP program. Comprehensive information on HARP mathematical models can be found in the references.

Bavuso, Salvatore J.

HiRel: Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated reliability tool system, (version 7.0). Volume 4: HARP Output (HARPO) graphics display user's guide

The Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP) integrated Reliability (HiRel) tool system for reliability/availability prediction offers a toolbox of integrated reliability/availability programs that can be used to customize the user's application in a workstation or nonworkstation environment. HiRel consists of interactive graphical input/output programs and four reliability/availability modeling engines that provide analytical and simulative solutions to a wide host of highly reliable fault-tolerant system architectures and is also applicable to electronic systems in general. The tool system was designed at the outset to be compatible with most computing platforms and operating systems and some programs have been beta tested within the aerospace community for over 8 years. This document is a user's guide for the HiRel graphical postprocessor program HARPO (HARP Output). HARPO reads ASCII files generated by HARP. It provides an interactive plotting capability that can be used to display alternate model data for trade-off analyses. File data can also be imported to other commercial software programs.

Sproles, Darrell W.

A predictor-corrector technique for visualizing unsteady flow

We present a method for visualizing unsteady flow by displaying its vortices. The vortices are identified by using a vorticity-predictor pressure-corrector scheme that follows vortex cores. The cross-sections of a vortex at each point along the core can be represented by a Fourier series. A vortex can be faithfully reconstructed from the series as a simple quadrilateral mesh, or its reconstruction can be enhanced to indicate helical motion. The mesh can reduce the representation of the flow features by a factor of one thousand or more compared with the volumetric dataset. With this amount of reduction it is possible to implement an interactive system on a graphics workstation to permit a viewer to examine, in three dimensions, the evolution of the vortical structures in a complex, unsteady flow.

Banks, David C.

Predictors of Behavior and Performance in Extreme Environments: The Antarctic Space Analogue Program

To determine which, if any, characteristics should be incorporated into a select-in approach to screening personnel for long-duration spaceflight, we examined the influence of crewmember social/ demographic characteristics, personality traits, interpersonal needs, and characteristics of station physical environments on performance measures in 657 American men who spent an austral winter in Antarctica between 1963 and 1974. During screening, subjects completed a Personal History Questionnaire which obtained information on social and demographic characteristics, the Deep Freeze Opinion Survey which assessed 5 different personality traits, and the Fundamental Interpersonal Relations Orientation-Behavior (FIRO-B) Scale which measured 6 dimensions of interpersonal needs. Station environment included measures of crew size and severity of physical environment. Performance was assessed on the basis of combined peer-supervisor evaluations of overall performance, peer nominations of fellow crewmembers who made ideal winter-over candidates, and self-reported depressive symptoms. Social/demographic characteristics, personality traits, interpersonal needs, and characteristics of station environments collectively accounted for 9-17% of the variance in performance measures. The following characteristics were significant independent predictors of more than one performance measure: military service, low levels of neuroticism, extraversion and conscientiousness, and a low desire for affection from others. These results represent an important first step in the development of select-in criteria for personnel on long-duration missions in space and other extreme environments. These criteria must take into consideration the characteristics of the environment and the limitations they place on meeting needs for interpersonal relations and task performance, as well as the characteristics of the individuals and groups who live and work in these environments.

Palinkas, Lawrence A.

A Runtime Performance Predictor for Selecting Tabu Tenures

One of the drawbacks of parameter based systems, such as tabu search, is the difficulty of finding the correct parameter for a particular problem. Often, rule-of-thumb advice is given which may have little or no applicability to the domain or problem instance at hand. This paper describes the application of a general technique, Runtime Performance Predictors (RPP) which can be used to determine, in an efficient manner, the correct tabu tenure for a particular problem instance. The details of the approach and a demonstration using a variant of GSAT are presented.

Allen, John A.

Crystal Growth Rate Dispersion: A Predictor of Crystal Quality in Microgravity?

In theory macromolecular crystals grow through a process involving at least two transport phenomena of solute to the crystal surface: diffusion and convection. In absence of standard gravitational forces, the ratio of these two phenomena can change and explain why crystal growth in microgravity is different from that on Earth. Experimental evidence clearly shows, however, that crystal growth of various systems is not equally sensitive to reduction in gravitational forces, leading to quality improvement in microgravity for some crystals but not for others. We hypothesize that the differences in final crystal quality are related to crystal growth rate dispersion. If growth rate dispersion exists on Earth, decreases in microgravity, and coincides with crystal quality improvements then this dispersion is a predictor for crystal quality improvement. In order to test this hypothesis, we will measure growth rate dispersion both in microgravity and on Earth and will correlate the data with previously established data on crystal quality differences for the two environments. We present here the first crystal growth rate measurement data for three proteins (lysozyme, xylose isomerase and human recombinant insulin), collected on Earth, using hardware identical to the hardware to be used in microgravity and show how these data correlate with crystal quality improvements established in microgravity.

Kephart, Richard D.

Fractal analysis of heart rate dynamics as a predictor of mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction. TRACE Investigators. TRAndolapril Cardiac Evaluation

A number of new methods have been recently developed to quantify complex heart rate (HR) dynamics based on nonlinear and fractal analysis, but their value in risk stratification has not been evaluated. This study was designed to determine whether selected new dynamic analysis methods of HR variability predict mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular (LV) function after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Traditional time- and frequency-domain HR variability indexes along with short-term fractal-like correlation properties of RR intervals (exponent alpha) and power-law scaling (exponent beta) were studied in 159 patients with depressed LV function (ejection fraction <35%) after an AMI. By the end of 4-year follow-up, 72 patients (45%) had died and 87 (55%) were still alive. Short-term scaling exponent alpha (1.07 +/- 0.26 vs 0.90 +/- 0.26, p <0.001) and power-law slope beta (-1.35 +/- 0.23 vs -1.44 +/- 0.25, p <0.05) differed between survivors and those who died, but none of the traditional HR variability measures differed between these groups. Among all analyzed variables, reduced scaling exponent alpha (<0.85) was the best univariable predictor of mortality (relative risk 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.96 to 5.15, p <0.0001), with positive and negative predictive accuracies of 65% and 86%, respectively. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, mortality was independently predicted by the reduced exponent alpha (p <0.001) after adjustment for several clinical variables and LV function. A short-term fractal-like scaling exponent was the most powerful HR variability index in predicting mortality in patients with depressed LV function. Reduction in fractal correlation properties implies more random short-term HR dynamics in patients with increased risk of death after AMI.

Non-NASA Center

Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors as Predictors of Cardiovascular Events in the U.S. Astronaut Corps

Risk prediction equations from the Framingham Heart Study are commonly used to predict the absolute risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) related death. Predicting CHD-related events in the U.S. astronaut corps presents a monumental challenge, both because astronauts tend to live healthier lifestyles and because of the unique cardiovascular stressors associated with being trained for and participating in space flight. Traditional risk factors may not hold enough predictive power to provide a useful indicator of CHD risk in this unique population. It is important to be able to identify individuals who are at higher risk for CHD-related events so that appropriate preventive care can be provided. This is of special importance when planning long duration missions since the ability to provide advanced cardiac care and perform medical evacuation is limited. The medical regimen of the astronauts follows a strict set of clinical practice guidelines in an effort to ensure the best care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of the Framingham risk score (FRS), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein levels, blood pressure, and resting pulse as predictors of CHD-related death and MI in the astronaut corps, using Cox regression. Of these factors, only two, LDL and pulse at selection, were predictive of CHD events (HR(95% CI)=1.12 (1.00-1.25) and HR(95% CI)=1.70 (1.05-2.75) for every 5-unit increase in LDL and pulse, respectively). Since traditional CHD risk factors may lack the specificity to predict such outcomes in astronauts, the development of a new predictive model, using additional measures such as electron-beam computed tomography and carotid intima-media thickness ultrasound, is planned for the future.

Halm, M. K.

A Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion Predictor-Based Model Reference Adaptive Controller for a Generic Transport Model

Presented here is a Predictor-Based Model Reference Adaptive Control (PMRAC) architecture for a generic transport aircraft. At its core, this architecture features a three-axis, non-linear, dynamic-inversion controller. Command inputs for this baseline controller are provided by pilot roll-rate, pitch-rate, and sideslip commands. This paper will first thoroughly present the baseline controller followed by a description of the PMRAC adaptive augmentation to this control system. Results are presented via a full-scale, nonlinear simulation of NASA s Generic Transport Model (GTM).

Campbell, Stefan F.

Predictor-Based Model Reference Adaptive Control

This paper is devoted to the design and analysis of a predictor-based model reference adaptive control. Stable adaptive laws are derived using Lyapunov framework. The proposed architecture is compared with the now classical model reference adaptive control. A simulation example is presented in which numerical evidence indicates that the proposed controller yields improved transient characteristics.

Lavretsky, Eugene

Preliminary Exploration of Adaptive State Predictor Based Human Operator Modeling

Control-theoretic modeling of the human operator dynamic behavior in manual control tasks has a long and rich history. In the last two decades, there has been a renewed interest in modeling the human operator. There has also been significant work on techniques used to identify the pilot model of a given structure. The purpose of this research is to attempt to go beyond pilot identification based on collected experimental data and to develop a predictor of pilot behavior. An experiment was conducted to quantify the effects of changing aircraft dynamics on an operator s ability to track a signal in order to eventually model a pilot adapting to changing aircraft dynamics. A gradient descent estimator and a least squares estimator with exponential forgetting used these data to predict pilot stick input. The results indicate that individual pilot characteristics and vehicle dynamics did not affect the accuracy of either estimator method to estimate pilot stick input. These methods also were able to predict pilot stick input during changing aircraft dynamics and they may have the capability to detect a change in a subject due to workload, engagement, etc., or the effects of changes in vehicle dynamics on the pilot.

Trujillo, Anna C.