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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Long noncoding RNA AK023096 interacts with hnRNP-K and contributes to the maintenance of self-renewal in bladder cancer stem-like cells

Highlights: • BCSLCs play a critical role for the high risk of recurrence and we identified that lncRNA-AK023096 was required for controls stemness of BCSLCs. • LncRNA-AK023096 recruits hnRNP-K and epigenetically upregulated SOX2 expression by modulating H3K4 trimethylation of SOX2 promoter. • Overexpression of lncRNA-AK023096 expression in the tumor tissue was significantly associated with high risk of recurrence following TUR-Bt. LncRNA contribution to self-renewal of bladder cancer stem-like cells (CSLCs) remains largely unknown. We investigated the expression profile and biological function of lncRNAs in urothelial CSLCs by microarray analysis. Among these, lncRNA-AK023096 was identified as potentially playing a role in maintaining self-renewal of CSLCs. Knockdown of this transcript inhibited spheroid formation and tumor formation. We found that AK023096 mediates recruitment of hnRNP-K to SOX2 promoter and increases H3K4 trimethylation status on SOX2 promoter, leading to a robust change in SOX2 mRNA and protein levels. Moreover, AK023096 expression in primary tumors was found to be a powerful predictor of recurrence following transurethral resection in patients with nonmuscle-invasive bladder cancer, highlighting the critical role of lncRNA in the bladder cancer regulatory network.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Novel Approach for Adaptive Signal Processing

Adaptive linear predictors have been used extensively in practice in a wide variety of forms. In the main, their theoretical development is based upon the assumption of stationarity of the signals involved, particularly with respect to the second order statistics. On this basis, the well-known normal equations can be formulated. If high- order statistical stationarity is assumed, then the equivalent normal equations involve high-order signal moments. In either case, the cross moments (second or higher) are needed. This renders the adaptive prediction procedure non-blind. A novel procedure for blind adaptive prediction has been proposed and considerable implementation has been made in our contributions in the past year. The approach is based upon a suitable interpretation of blind equalization methods that satisfy the constant modulus property and offers significant deviations from the standard prediction methods. These blind adaptive algorithms are derived by formulating Lagrange equivalents from mechanisms of constrained optimization. In this report, other new update algorithms are derived from the fundamental concepts of advanced system identification to carry out the proposed blind adaptive prediction. The results of the work can be extended to a number of control-related problems, such as disturbance identification. The basic principles are outlined in this report and differences from other existing methods are discussed. The applications implemented are speech processing, such as coding and synthesis. Simulations are included to verify the novel modelling method.

Chen, Ya-Chin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Size, shade, or shape? The contribution of galaxies of different types to the star formation history of the Universe from SDSS-IV MaNGA

ABSTRACT By fitting stellar populations to the fourth generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey observations of ∼7000 suitably weighted individual galaxies, we reconstruct the star formation history of the Universe, which we find to be in reasonable agreement with previous studies. Dividing the galaxies by their present-day stellar mass, we demonstrate the downsizing phenomenon, whereby the more massive galaxies hosted the most star formation at earlier times. Further dividing the galaxy sample by colour and morphology, we find that a galaxy’s present-day colour tells us more about its historical contribution to the cosmic star formation history than its current morphology. We show that downsizing effects are greatest among galaxies currently in the blue cloud, but that the level of downsizing in galaxies of different morphologies depends quite sensitively on the morphological classification used, due largely to the difficulty in classifying the smaller low-mass galaxies from their ground-based images. Nevertheless, we find agreement that among galaxies with stellar masses $M_{\star } \gt 6\times 10^{9}\, \mathrm{ M}_{\odot }$, downsizing is most significant in spirals. However, there are complicating factors. For example, for more massive galaxies, we find that colour and morphology are predictors of the past star formation over a longer time-scale than in less massive systems. Presumably this effect is reflecting the longer period of evolution required to alter these larger galaxies’ physical properties, but shows that conclusions based on any single property do not tell the full story.

Peterken, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2025

North Pacific meridional mode has larger impacts on El Niño evolution than the March Madden-Julian Oscillation

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of global climate variability. Early-season westerly wind bursts (WWBs) have long been suggested to be important for ENSO evolution and diversity, with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) among the main sources of WWBs. However, MJO’s contribution to ENSO evolution has been difficult to quantify. Here, using an ensemble hindcast approach specifically designed to isolate internal atmospheric variability, we evaluate the influences of March MJO on subsequent ENSO development. Our results show that the March MJO, under favorable background conditions, by itself has limited impacts on ENSO due to weak equatorial air-sea coupling in spring. In comparison, the North Pacific Oscillation–induced meridional mode exerts a more sustained influence on ENSO evolution. A cyclonic circulation anomaly over Hawaii, associated with the Pacific-North American pattern, also plays a role. These findings suggest that March MJO activity alone may not be a reliable predictor for ENSO evolution, but underscore the importance of North Pacific atmospheric variability.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variability in terrestrial characteristics and erosion rates on the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

Abstract Arctic coastal environments are eroding and rapidly changing. A lack of pan-Arctic observations limits our ability to understand controls on coastal erosion rates across the entire Arctic region. Here, we capitalize on an abundance of geospatial and remotely sensed data, in addition to model output, from the North Slope of Alaska to identify relationships between historical erosion rates and landscape characteristics to guide future modeling and observational efforts across the Arctic. Using existing datasets from the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast and a hierarchical clustering algorithm, we developed a set of 16 coastal typologies that captures the defining characteristics of environments susceptible to coastal erosion. Relationships between landscape characteristics and historical erosion rates show that no single variable alone is a good predictor of erosion rates. Variability in erosion rate decreases with increasing coastal elevation, but erosion rate magnitudes are highest for intermediate elevations. Areas along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast (ABSC) protected by barrier islands showed a three times lower erosion rate on average, suggesting that barrier islands are critical to maintaining mainland shore position. Finally, typologies with the highest erosion rates are not broadly representative of the ABSC and are generally associated with low elevation, north- to northeast-facing shorelines, a peaty pebbly silty lithology, and glaciomarine deposits with high ice content. All else being equal, warmer permafrost is also associated with higher erosion rates, suggesting that warming permafrost temperatures may contribute to higher future erosion rates on permafrost coasts. The suite of typologies can be used to guide future modeling and observational efforts by quantifying the distribution of coastlines with specific landscape characteristics and erosion rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting the evolution of biomass bulk density through feedstock preprocessing: Discrete element modeling, regression analysis, and pilot-scale validation

Bulk density is an important material property of biomass feedstocks, influencing handling, storage, transport costs, and conversion efficiency. In this study, predictive regression models for loose and tapped bulk densities of Alamo and Cave-in-Rock switchgrass are developed using a comprehensive dataset generated via calibrated bonded-sphere discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Here, a key contribution of this study is the use of a DEM-based approach, which correlates density with moisture content and particle size distribution parameters and enables analysis across a continuous particle size range, overcoming limitations of purely experimental data. For comparison, regression models are also developed using only experimental data from pilot-scale runs at the Biomass Feedstock National User Facility at Idaho National Laboratory. Validation against pilot-scale data showed reasonable prediction accuracy for both model types, particularly for smaller particle sizes (post-secondary grinding). While the experimental model showed slightly better performance matching the validation data in some cases, the DEM-based model benefits from a much larger dataset, reduced predictor multicollinearity, and continuous parameter coverage, highlighting the utility of validated simulation models for developing robust predictive tools for biomass preprocessing applications.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multigenic resistance to Xylella fastidiosa in wild grapes ( Vitis sps.) and its implications within a changing climate

Xylella fastidiosa is a bacterium that infects crops like grapevines, coffee, almonds, citrus and olives. There is little understanding of the genes that contribute to plant resistance, the genomic architecture of resistance, and the potential role of climate in shaping resistance, in part because major crops like grapevines (Vitis vinifera) are not resistant to the bacterium. Here we study a wild grapevine species, V. arizonica, that segregates for resistance. Using genome-wide association, we identify candidate resistance genes. Resistance-associated kmers are shared with a sister species of V. arizonica but not with more distant species, suggesting that resistance evolved more than once. Finally, resistance is climate dependent, because individuals from low (< 10 °C) temperature locations in the wettest quarter were typically susceptible to infection, likely reflecting a lack of pathogen pressure in colder climates. In fact, climate is as effective a predictor of resistance phenotypes as some genetic markers. We extend our climate observations to additional crops, predicting that increased pathogen pressure is more likely for grapevines and almonds than some other susceptible crops.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chemometric modeling of power conversion efficiency of organic dyes in dye sensitized solar cells for the future renewable energy

The present study reports chemometric modeling of power conversion efficiency (PCE) of dye sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) using the biggest available data set till date which comprises around 1200 dyes covering 7 chemical classes. To extract the best structural features required for higher PCE, we have developed multiple partial least squares (PLS) quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models for the Triphenylamine, Phenothiazine, Indoline, Porphyrin, Coumarin, Carbazole and Diphenylamine chemical classes using descriptors derived from the best subset selection method followed by selection of best five models in each dataset based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values. The models were validated both internally and externally followed by the consensus predictions employing “Intelligent Consensus Predictor” tool to examine whether the quality of predictions can be improved with the “intelligent” selection of multiple PLS models. The quality of predictions for the respective external sets showed that the consensus models (CM) are better than the individual models (IM) in most of the cases. From the insights of the developed models, we concluded that attributes like a packed structure toward higher conductivity of electrons, auxiliary donor fragment of aromatic tertiary amines, number of thiophenes inducing the bathochromic shift and augmenting the absorption, presence of additional electron donors, enhancement of electron-donating abilities, number of non-aromatic conjugated C(sp 2 ) which helps as conjugation extension units to broaden the absorption and highly conjugated $π$-systems exert positive contributions to the PCE. On the contrary, features negatively contributing to PCE are the followings: fragments which lower the tendency of localized $π–π*$ transition, fragments related to larger volume and surface area of dyes along with hydrophobicity resulting in poor adhesion, fragment RC = N causing dye hydrolysis, steric hindrance for π electronic mobility, fragments enhancing polarity, etc. Finally, the identified features from the best QSPR model of the coumarin dataset was employed in designing of ten more efficient coumarin dyes (predicted %PCE ranging from 8.93 to 10.62) than the existing ones.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nitrate Removal Across Ecogeomorphic Zones in Wax Lake Delta, Louisiana (USA)

Human activities have increased nitrate export from rivers, degrading coastal water quality. At deltaic river mouths, the flow of water through wetlands increases nitrate removal, and the spatial organization of removal rates influences coastal water quality. To understand the spatial distribution of nitrate removal in a river-dominated delta, in this study we deployed 23 benthic chambers across ecogeomorphic zones with varying elevation, vegetation, and sediment properties in Wax Lake Delta (Louisiana, USA) in June 2018. Regression analyses indicate that normalized difference vegetation index is a useful predictor of summertime nitrate removal. Mass transfer velocity were approximately three times greater on a vegetated submerged levee (13 mm hr –1 ), where normalized difference vegetation index was greatest, compared to other locations (4.6 mm hr –1 ). Two methods were developed to upscale nitrate removal across the delta. The flooded-delta method integrates spatially explicit potential removal rates across submerged portions of the delta and suggests that intermediate elevations on the delta—including submerged levees—are responsible for 70% of potential nitrate removal despite covering only 33% of the flooded area. The channel network method treats the delta as a network of river channels and suggests that although secondary channels are more efficient than primary channels at removing received nitrate, primary channels collectively contribute more to overall removal because they convey more of the total nitrate load. The two upscaling methods predict similar rates of nitrate removal, equivalent to less than 4% of nitrate entering the delta. To protect coastal waters against high nitrate loads, management policies should aim to reduce upstream nutrient loads.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Development of a Protocol to Test Proprioceptive Utilization as a Predictor for Sensorimotor Adaptability

Astronauts returning from space flight show significant inter-subject variations in their abilities to readapt to a gravitational environment because of their innate sensory weighting. The ability to predict the manner and degree to which each individual astronaut will be affected would improve the effectiveness of countermeasure training programs designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. We hypothesize participant's ability to utilize individual sensory information (vision, proprioception and vestibular) influences adaptation in sensorimotor performance after space flight. The goal of this study is to develop a reliable protocol to test proprioceptive utilization in a functional postural control task. Subjects "stand" in a supine position while strapped to a backpack frame holding a friction-free device using air-bearings that allow the subject to move freely in the frontal plane, similar to when in upright standing. The frame is attached to a pneumatic cylinder, which can provide different levels of a gravity-like force that the subject must balance against to remain "upright". The supine posture with eyes closed ensures reduced vestibular and visual contribution to postural control suggesting somatosensory and/or non-otolith vestibular inputs will provide relevant information for maintaining balance control in this task. This setup is called the gravity bed. Fourteen healthy subjects carried out three trials each with eyes open alternated with eyes closed, "standing" on their dominant leg in the gravity bed environment while loaded with 60 percent of their body weight. Subjects were instructed to: "use your sense of sway about the ankle and pressure changes under the foot to maintain balance." Maximum length of a trial was 45 seconds. A force plate underneath the foot recorded forces and moments during the trial and an inertial measurement unit (IMU) attached on the backpack's frame near the center of mass of the subject recorded upper body postural responses. Series of linear and non-linear analyses were carried out on several force plate and IMU data including stabilogram diffusion analysis on the center of pressure (COP) to find a subset of parameters that were sensitive to detect differences in postural performance between eyes open and closed conditions. Results revealed that seven parameters (root mean square (RMS) of medio-lateral (ML) COP, range of ML COP, RMS of roll moment, range of trunk roll, minimum time-to-boundary (TTB), integrated TTB, and critical mean square planar displacement (delta r (sup 2) (sub c)) were significantly different between eyes open and closed conditions. We will present data to show the efficacy of using performance in single leg stance with eyes closed on the gravity bed to assess individuals' ability to utilize proprioceptive information in a functional postural control task to predict re-adaptation for sensorimotor and functional performance.

Goel, R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Toward Malaria Risk Prediction in Afghanistan Using Remote Sensing

Malaria causes more than one million deaths every year worldwide, with most of the mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a significant public health concern in Afghanistan, with approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, living in a malaria-endemic area. Malaria transmission has been shown to be dependent on a number of environmental and meteorological variables. For countries in the tropics and the subtropics, rainfall is normally the most important variable, except for regions with high altitude where temperature may also be important. Afghanistan s diverse landscape contributes to the heterogeneous malaria distribution. Understanding the environmental effects on malaria transmission is essential to the effective control of malaria in Afghanistan. Provincial malaria data gathered by Health Posts in 23 provinces during 2004-2007 are used in this study. Remotely sensed geophysical parameters, including precipitation from TRMM, and surface temperature and vegetation index from MODIS are used to derive the empirical relationship between malaria cases and these geophysical parameters. Both neural network methods and regression analyses are used to examine the environmental dependency of malaria transmission. And the trained models are used for predicting future transmission. While neural network methods are intrinsically more adaptive for nonlinear relationship, the regression approach lends itself in providing statistical significance measures. Our results indicate that NDVI is the strongest predictor. This reflects the role of irrigation, instead of precipitation, in Afghanistan for agricultural production. The second strongest prediction is surface temperature. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, contrary to other malarious countries in the tropics or subtropics. With the regression approach, the malaria time series are modelled well, with average R2 of 0.845. For cumulative 6-month prediction of malaria cases, the average provincial accuracy reaches 91%. The developed predictive and early warning capabilities support the Third Strategic Approach of the WHO EMRO Malaria Control and Elimination Plan.

Safi, N.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Site Observational Study to Assess Biomarkers for Susceptibility or Resilience to Chronic Pain: The Acute to Chronic Pain Signatures (A2CPS) Study Protocol

Chronic pain has become a global health problem contributing to years lived with disability and reduced quality of life. Advances in the clinical management of chronic pain have been limited due to incomplete understanding of the multiple risk factors and molecular mechanisms that contribute to the development of chronic pain. The Acute to Chronic Pain Signatures (A2CPS) Program aims to characterize the predictive nature of biomarkers (brain imaging, high-throughput molecular screening techniques, or “omics,” quantitative sensory testing, patient-reported outcome assessments and functional assessments) to identify individuals who will develop chronic pain following surgical intervention. The A2CPS is a multisite observational study investigating biomarkers and collective biosignatures (a combination of several individual biomarkers) that predict susceptibility or resilience to the development of chronic pain following knee arthroplasty and thoracic surgery. This manuscript provides an overview of data collection methods and procedures designed to standardize data collection across multiple clinical sites and institutions. Pain-related biomarkers are evaluated before surgery and up to 3 months after surgery for use as predictors of patient reported outcomes 6 months after surgery. The dataset from this prospective observational study will be available for researchers internal and external to the A2CPS Consortium to advance understanding of the transition from acute to chronic postsurgical pain.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metabolic interactions underpinning high methane fluxes across terrestrial freshwater wetlands

Current estimates of wetland contributions to the global methane budget carry high uncertainty, particularly in accurately predicting emissions from high methane-emitting wetlands. Microorganisms drive methane cycling, but little is known about their conservation across wetlands. To address this, we integrate 16S rRNA amplicon datasets, metagenomes, metatranscriptomes, and annual methane flux data across 9 wetlands, creating the Multi-Omics for Understanding Climate Change (MUCC) v2.0.0 database. This resource is used to link microbiome composition to function and methane emissions, focusing on methane-cycling microbes and the networks driving carbon decomposition. We identify eight methane-cycling genera shared across wetlands and show wetland-specific metabolic interactions in marshes, revealing low connections between methanogens and methanotrophs in high-emitting wetlands. Methanoregula emerged as a hub methanogen across networks and is a strong predictor of methane flux. In these wetlands it also displays the functional potential for methylotrophic methanogenesis, highlighting the importance of this pathway in these ecosystems. Collectively, our findings illuminate trends between microbial decomposition networks and methane flux while providing an extensive publicly available database to advance future wetland research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1975

Experimental studies for determining human discomfort response to vertical sinusoidal vibration

A study was conducted to investigate several problems related to methodology and design of experiments to obtain human comfort response to vertical sinusoidal vibration. Specifically, the studies were directed to the determination of (1) the adequacy of frequency averaging of vibration data to obtain discomfort predictors, (2) the effect of practice on subject ratings, (3) the effect of the demographic factors of age, sex, and weight, and (4) the relative importance of seat and floor vibrations in the determination of measurement and criteria specification location. Results indicate that accurate prediction of discomfort requires knowledge of both the acceleration level and frequency content of the vibration stimuli. More importantly, the prediction of discomfort was shown to be equally good based upon either floor accelerations or seat accelerations. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the discomfort levels in different seats resulting from similar vibratory imputs were equal. Therefore, it was recommended that criteria specifications and acceleration measurements be made at the floor location. The results also indicated that practice did not systematically influence discomfort responses nor did the demographic factors of age, weight, and sex contribute to the discomfort response variation.

Dempsey, T. K.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index

Abstract The second UN Sustainable Development Goal establishes food security as a priority for governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs. These institutions track national-level food security performance with an array of metrics and weigh intervention options considering the leverage of many possible drivers. We studied the relationships between several candidate drivers and two response variables based on prominent measures of national food security: the 2019 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale’s (FIES) estimate of the percentage of a nation’s population experiencing food security or mild food insecurity (FI ). We compared the contributions of explanatory variables in regressions predicting both response variables, and we further tested the stability of our results to changes in explanatory variable selection and in the countries included in regression model training and testing. At the cross-national level, the quantity and quality of a nation’s agricultural land were not predictive of either food security metric. We found mixed evidence that per-capita cereal production, per-hectare cereal yield, an aggregate governance metric, logistics performance, and extent of paid employment work were predictive of national food security. Household spending as measured by per-capita final consumption expenditure (HFCE) was consistently the strongest driver among those studied, alone explaining a median of 92% and 70% of variation (based on out-of-sample R 2 ) in GFSI and FI , respectively. The relative strength of HFCE as a predictor was observed for both response variables and was independent of the countries used for model training, the transformations applied to the explanatory variables prior to model training, and the variable selection technique used to specify multivariate regressions. The results of this cross-national analysis reinforce previous research supportive of a causal mechanism where, in the absence of exceptional local factors, an increase in income drives increase in food security. However, the strength of this effect varies depending on the countries included in regression model fitting. We demonstrate that using multiple response metrics, repeated random sampling of input data, and iterative variable selection facilitates a convergence of evidence approach to analyzing food security drivers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimates of Lake Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Chlorophyll‐ a Concentrations to Characterize Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Across the United States

Abstract Excess nutrient pollution contributes to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that compromise fisheries and recreation and that can directly endanger human and animal health via cyanotoxins. Efforts to quantify the occurrence, drivers, and severity of HABs across large areas is difficult due to the resource intensive nature of field monitoring of lake nutrient and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations. To better characterize how nutrients interact with other environmental factors to produce algal blooms in freshwater systems, we used spatially explicit and temporally matched climate, landscape, in‐lake characteristic, and nutrient inventory data sets to predict nutrients and chlorophyll‐aacross the conterminous US (CONUS). Using a nested modeling approach, three random forest (RF) models were trained to explain the spatiotemporal variation in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations across US EPA's National Lakes Assessment (n = 2,062). Concentrations of TN and TP were the most important predictors and, with other variables, the RF model accounted for 68% of variation in chlorophyll‐a. We then used these RF models to extrapolate lake TN and TP predictions to lakes without nutrient observations and predict chlorophyll‐afor ∼112,000 lakes across the CONUS. Risk for high chlorophyll‐aconcentrations is highest in the agriculturally dominated Midwest, but other areas of risk emerge in nutrient pollution hot spots across the country. These catchment and lake‐specific results can help managers identify potential nutrient pollution and chlorophyll‐ahot spots that may fuel blooms, prioritize at‐risk lakes for additional monitoring, and optimize management to protect human health and other environmental end goals.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
NASA NTRS2018

Predicting the Operational Acceptance of Airborne Flight Reroute Requests Using Data Mining

For tools that generate more efficient flight routes or reroute advisories, it is important to ensure compatibility of automation and autonomy decisions with human objectives so as to ensure acceptability by the human operators. In this paper, the authors developed a proof of concept predictor of operational acceptability for route changes during a flight. Such a capability could have applications in automation tools that identify more efficient routes around airspace impacted by weather or congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The predictor is based on applying data mining techniques, including logistic regression, a decision tree, a support vector machine, a random forest and Adaptive Boost, to historical flight plan amendment data reported during operations and field experiments. Cross validation was used for model development, while nested cross validation was used to validate the models. The model found to have the best performance in predicting air traffic controller acceptance or rejection of a route change, using the available data from Fort Worth Air Traffic Control Center and its adjacent Centers, was the random forest, with an F-score of 0.77. This result indicates that the operational acceptance of reroute requests does indeed have some level of predictability, and that, with suitable data, models can be trained to predict the operational acceptability of reroute requests. Such models may ultimately be used to inform route selection by decision support tools, contributing to the development of increasingly autonomous systems that are capable of routing aircraft with less human input than is currently the case.

Operational Acceptability↗
NASA NTRS2010

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III

The AMU created new logistic regression equations in an effort to increase the skill of the Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II (Lambert 2007). One equation was created for each of five sub-seasons based on the daily lightning climatology instead of by month as was done in Phase II. The assumption was that these equations would capture the physical attributes that contribute to thunderstorm formation more so than monthly equations. However, the SS values in Section 5.3.2 showed that the Phase III equations had worse skill than the Phase II equations and, therefore, will not be transitioned into operations. The current Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II will continue to be used operationally in MIDDS. Three warm seasons were added to the Phase II dataset to increase the POR from 17 to 20 years (1989-2008), and data for October were included since the daily climatology showed lightning occurrence extending into that month. None of the three methods tested to determine the start of the subseason in each individual year were able to discern the start dates with consistent accuracy. Therefore, the start dates were determined by the daily climatology shown in Figure 10 and were the same in every year. The procedures used to create the predictors and develop the equations were identical to those in Phase II. The equations were made up of one to three predictors. TI and the flow regime probabilities were the top predictors followed by 1-day persistence, then VT and Ll. Each equation outperformed four other forecast methods by 7-57% using the verification dataset, but the new equations were outperformed by the Phase II equations in every sub-season. The reason for the degradation may be due to the fact that the same sub-season start dates were used in every year. It is likely there was overlap of sub-season days at the beginning and end of each defined sub-season in each individual year, which could very well affect equation performance.

Crawford, Winifred C.↗