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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5

Less is more: Sampling chemical space with active learning

We present the development of accurate and transferable machine learning (ML) potentials for predicting molecular energetics is a challenging task. The process of data generation to train such ML potentials is a task neither well understood nor researched in detail. In this work, we present a fully automated approach for the generation of datasets with the intent of training universal ML potentials. It is based on the concept of active learning (AL) via Query by Committee (QBC), which uses the disagreement between an ensemble of ML potentials to infer the reliability of the ensemble’s prediction. QBC allows the presented AL algorithm to automatically sample regions of chemical space where the ML potential fails to accurately predict the potential energy. AL improves the overall fitness of ANAKIN-ME (ANI) deep learning potentials in rigorous test cases by mitigating human biases in deciding what new training data to use. AL also reduces the training set size to a fraction of the data required when using naive random sampling techniques. To provide validation of our AL approach, we develop the COmprehensive Machine-learning Potential (COMP6) benchmark (publicly available on GitHub) which contains a diverse set of organic molecules. Active learning-based ANI potentials outperform the original random sampled ANI-1 potential with only 10% of the data, while the final active learning-based model vastly outperforms ANI-1 on the COMP6 benchmark after training to only 25% of the data. Finally, we show that our proposed AL technique develops a universal ANI potential (ANI-1x) that provides accurate energy and force predictions on the entire COMP6 benchmark. Finally, this universal ML potential achieves a level of accuracy on par with the best ML potentials for single molecules or materials, while remaining applicable to the general class of organic molecules composed of the elements CHNO.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Computation of Variability in the Average Thermal and Mechanical Properties of a Melt-infiltrated Sic/sic Composite

Thermal conductivity and tensile properties (elastic modulus, proportional limit strength, inplane tensile strength, and strain to failure) of a SiC/SiC composite were experimentally determined at 816 and 1204 C. Tests were performed at room temperature on the same material to obtain interlaminar shear and tensile strength. For each thermal and mechanical property 24 tests were conducted to capture the variation. A random sampling method was used to quantify the variability exhibited by the mean values of the thermal and mechanical properties. The minimum number of tests required to characterize the mean value of each thermal or mechanical property for the composite was determined by varying the group size of the random sample.

Kalluri, Sreeramesh↗

Statistical analysis on random quantum circuit sampling by Sycamore and Zuchongzhi quantum processors

Random quantum circuit sampling, a task to sample bit strings from a random quantum circuit, is considered a suitable benchmark task to demonstrate the outperformance of quantum computers even with noisy qubits. Recently, random quantum circuit sampling was performed on the Sycamore quantum processor with 53 qubits [Nature (London) 574, 505 (2019)] and on the Zuchongzhi quantum processor with 56 qubits [Phys. Rev. Lett. 127, 180501 (2021)]. Here, we analyze and compare the statistical properties of the outputs of the random quantum circuit sampling by the Sycamore and Zuchongzhi processors. Using the Marchenko-Pastur law of random matrices of bit strings and the Wasssertein distances between bit strings, we find that the statistical properties of Sycamore bit strings are quite different from those of Zuchongzhi bit strings, while both processors score similar values of linear cross-entropy fidelity for random circuit sampling. Some bit strings sampled by the Zuchongzhi processor pass the NIST random number tests while both Sycamore and Zuchongzhi processors show similar patterns in the heat maps of bit strings. Zuchongzhi bit strings are much closer to classical uniform random bits than those of Sycamore. It is shown that the statistical properties of bit strings of both random quantum circuits change little as the depth of the random quantum circuits increases. Our findings raise a question about the computational reliability of noisy quantum processors because two quantum processors with similar noise levels and similar qubit structures produced statistically different outputs for the same random quantum circuit sampling.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Testing Nesting DXTRAN Spheres for Neutron Transport in Air

The deterministic transport sphere (DXTRAN sphere) is a technology that can be utilized in MCNP for improving sampling in the vicinity of a particular geometry, when the solid angle, between the source and particular geometry, is small. At a collision event, a DXTRAN particle is created and deterministically transported to the DXTRAN sphere, while the colliding particle (NONDXTRAN particle) continues transporting as if no DXTRAN event had occurred. Weight is balanced by killing the NONDXTRAN particle when traversing the DXTRAN sphere. If set up correctly, the DXTRAN particle placed on the DXTRAN sphere has a high probability of interacting with the geometry within the DXTRAN sphere. The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) states that the estimated mean approaches a normal distribution with known variance as the number of random samples grows sufficiently large. In reality the variance is seldom known and therefore must be estimated. In a Monte Carlo calculation, one must determine when the number of random samples is sufficiently large for the CLT to be satisfied. For the CLT to be satisfied, the first two moments (mean and variance) must exist. The second moment, the variance of a normal distribution is estimated. The slope test, which uses the largest 201 history scores of each tally fluctuation chart (TFC) bin fit to a Pareto function, is used to determine if the largest history scores decrease faster than 1/x{sup 3}. If the slope is less than 3, then enough histories have not yet been sampled such to meet the second moment existence requirement of the CLT. Usually, a slope of less than 3 indicates that the effects of high weight scores have not been satisfactorily sampled; such a consequence can also be manifested in examining trends in the 4. moment, the variance of the variance (VOV). For example, when examining the TFC, if the VOV is monotonically decreasing for a few sets of histories and then drastically increases for the next set of histories, chances are a rare high weight score, significantly greater than the average score, was encountered. As a result of the 1/R{sup 2} term, a point detector can achieve an extremely high weight, much greater than the average, as the distance from collision to point detector approaches zero. To remedy this difficulty, a 'radius of exclusion' is applied, where within the radius of exclusion 'the point detector estimate is assumed to be the average flux uniformly distributed'. A DXTRAN sphere can suffer from the same weight fluctuation as collisions in the vicinity of the DXTRAN sphere produce much larger weights than collisions happening far from the DXTRAN sphere. If the rare large weight put on the DXTRAN sphere then scores in a tally, there will be a significant increase in the VOV and the slope may drop below 3. To compliment that analysis, here we utilize an air composition and density that varies as a function of altitude, detailing the trials and tribulations of attempting to pass the 10 statistical checks for a variety of single and nested DXTRAN sphere approaches. The objective here is to illuminate important considerations for radiation transport problems with small solid angles in a scatter medium of few mean free paths (MFPs)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Sampling for Confidence: Guidance for Evaluating the Quality of Canister Sampling Plans

There is a need for an inspection frequency that demonstrates reasonable assurance that the confinement function of dual-purpose-canisters (DPCs) is maintained as these DPCs are returned to storage service following transportation. The DPCs contain spent fuel from shutdown reactor sites. The currently-proposed 100% DPC inspection frequency is overly conservative and unnecessary to demonstrate reasonable assurance that the confinement function of all DPCs is maintained for return to storage service. Testing all DPCs does not appropriately reflect the very low risk of leakage (i.e., low probability based on design and low consequences based on analysis). Currently, there are 1066 DPCs forecast to be loaded at reactor sites which either are shutdown or plan to cease operations by 2025. These DPCs may be transported by rail in sets of 3 to 5 DPCs per shipment. Assuming each rail consist originates at a single reactor site, an alternative proposal to test one canister/consist/site would result in 356 to 214 canisters, respectively, being tested given the population of 1,066 canisters This Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) report outlines statistically-based, random sampling plans that provide guidance on the number of samples of these canisters that are needed to establish bounds on the quality of the outcome of such sampling. The quality of each proposed sampling plan is expressed in the form of a statement that the number of undetected, unacceptable canisters in the population is less than some number, call it D, at a high level of confidence. In addition, evaluations using a similar approach for random sampling at the proposed levels of 214 and 356 canisters are provided.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Sampling for Confidence: Guidance for Evaluating the Quality of Canister Sampling Plans

There is a need for an inspection frequency that demonstrates reasonable assurance that the confinement function of dual-purpose-canisters (DPCs) is maintained as these DPCs are returned to storage service following transportation. The DPCs contain spent fuel from shutdown reactor sites. The currently-proposed 100% DPC inspection frequency is overly conservative and unnecessary to demonstrate reasonable assurance that the confinement function of all DPCs is maintained for return to storage service. Testing all DPCs does not appropriately reflect the very low risk of leakage (i.e., low probability based on design and low consequences based on analysis). Currently, there are 1066 DPCs forecast to be loaded at reactor sites which either are shutdown or plan to cease operations by 2025. These DPCs may be transported by rail in sets of 3 to 5 DPCs per shipment. Assuming each rail consist originates at a single reactor site, an alternative proposal to test one canister/consist/site would result in 356 to 214 canisters, respectively, being tested given the population of 1,066 canisters This Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) report outlines statistically-based, random sampling plans that provide guidance on the number of samples of these canisters that are needed to establish bounds on the quality of the outcome of such sampling. The quality of each proposed sampling plan is expressed in the form of a statement that the number of undetected, unacceptable canisters in the population is less than some number, call it D, at a high level of confidence. In addition, evaluations using a similar approach for random sampling at the proposed levels of 214 and 356 canisters are provided. This is a technical report that does not take into account the contractual limitations under the Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High-Level Radioactive Waste (Standard Contract) (10 CFR Part 961). Under the provisions of the Standard Contract, DOE does not consider spent nuclear fuel in multi-assembly canisters to be an acceptable waste form, absent a mutually agreed upon contract amendment. To the extent discussions or recommendations in this report conflict with the provisions of the Standard Contract, the Standard Contract provisions prevail.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Heating of the moon by heterogeneous accretion

Monte Carlo models of lunar accretion are developed by randomly sampling mass and velocity distributions of objects in the solar nebula in circumsolar and circumterrestrial orbits. The thermal effect of an impact is expressed as the volume of melt produced; the melt volumes produced by each Monte Carlo case are sorted into regions to produce percentage melt estimates as a function of radius. One-hundred cases are calculated to obtain a range of plausible thermal histories for lunar accretion. The average melt percentage estimates show substantial deep melting, but the spread of melt percentage values about the mean from the random sampling procedure is wide enough to include 0% melting for radii below 100 km and 100% melting for radii below 500 km.

Ransford, G. A.↗

Evaluation of the procedure 1A component of the 1980 US/Canada wheat and barley exploratory experiment

Several techniques which use clusters generated by a new clustering algorithm, CLASSY, are proposed as alternatives to random sampling to obtain greater precision in crop proportion estimation: (1) Proportional Allocation/relative count estimator (PA/RCE) uses proportional allocation of dots to clusters on the basis of cluster size and a relative count cluster level estimate; (2) Proportional Allocation/Bayes Estimator (PA/BE) uses proportional allocation of dots to clusters and a Bayesian cluster-level estimate; and (3) Bayes Sequential Allocation/Bayesian Estimator (BSA/BE) uses sequential allocation of dots to clusters and a Bayesian cluster level estimate. Clustering in an effective method in making proportion estimates. It is estimated that, to obtain the same precision with random sampling as obtained by the proportional sampling of 50 dots with an unbiased estimator, samples of 85 or 166 would need to be taken if dot sets with AI labels (integrated procedure) or ground truth labels, respectively were input. Dot reallocation provides dot sets that are unbiased. It is recommended that these proportion estimation techniques are maintained, particularly the PA/BE because it provides the greatest precision.

Chapman, G. M.↗

Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.

Partition coefficient↗

Entropy-driven Optimal Sub-sampling of Fluid Dynamics for Developing Machine-learned Surrogates

Optimal sub-sampling of large datasets from fluid dynamics simulations is essential for training reduced-order machine learned models. A method using Shannon entropy was developed to weight flow features according to their level of information content, such that the most informative features can be extracted and used for training a surrogate model. The method is demonstrated in the canonical flow over a cylinder problem simulated with OpenFOAM. Both time-independent predictions and temporal forecasting were investigated as well as two types of prediction targets: local per-grid-point predictions and global per-time-step predictions. When tested on training a surrogate model, results indicate that our entropy-based sampling method typically outperforms random sampling and yields more reproducible results in less iterations. Finally, the method was used to train a surrogate model for modeling turbulence in magnetohydrodynamic flows, which revealed various challenges and opportunities for future research.

Brewer, Wes↗

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Support for Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics

In this research, artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) methods are used to search an uncertain parameter space more efficiently for the most important inputs with respect to response sensitivities. These methods are applied to the Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (xLPR) probabilistic fracture mechanics code used at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in support of nuclear regulatory research. This report documents two separate but related sub-tasks: (1) ranking important uncertain input features with respect to target outputs, determined by convergence in confidence intervals for increasing sample sizes using simple random sampling; and (2) implementation of a reduced-order surrogate model for fast, approximate sample generation. Unoptimized readily available off-the-shelf ML models were used in both sub-tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A globally sampled high-resolution hand-labeled validation dataset for evaluating surface water extent maps

Effective monitoring of global water resources is increasingly critical due to climate change and population growth. Advancements in remote sensing technology, specifically in spatial, spectral, and temporal resolutions, are revolutionizing water resource monitoring, leading to more frequent and high-quality surface water extent maps using various techniques such as traditional image processing and machine learning algorithms. However, satellite imagery datasets contain trade-offs that result in inconsistencies in performance, such as disparities in measurement principles between optical (e.g., Sentinel-2) and radar (e.g., Sentinel-1) sensors and differences in spatial and spectral resolutions among optical sensors. Therefore, developing accurate and robust surface water mapping solutions requires independent validations from multiple datasets to identify potential biases within the imagery and algorithms. However, high-quality validation datasets are expensive to build, and few contain information on water resources. For this purpose, we introduce a globally sampled, high-spatial-resolution dataset labeled using 3 m PlanetScope imagery. Our surface water extent dataset comprises 100 images, each with a size of 1024×1024 pixels, which were sampled using a stratified random sampling strategy covering all 14 biomes. We highlighted urban and rural regions, lakes, and rivers, including braided rivers and coastal regions. We evaluated two surface water extent mapping methods using our dataset – Dynamic World, based on Sentinel-2, and the NASA IMPACT model, based on Sentinel-1. Dynamic World achieved a mean intersection over union (IoU) of 72.16 % and F1 score of 79.70 %, while the NASA IMPACT model had a mean IoU of 57.61 % and F1 score of 65.79 %. Performance varied substantially across biomes, highlighting the importance of evaluating models on diverse landscapes to assess their generalizability and robustness. Our dataset can be used to analyze satellite products and methods, providing insights into their advantages and drawbacks. Our dataset offers a unique tool for analyzing satellite products, aiding the development of more accurate and robust surface water monitoring solutions. The dataset can be accessed via https://doi.org/10.25739/03nt-4f29.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Continental land cover assessment using Landsat MSS data

A statistical procedure to assess level-II continental resources using Landsat MSS digital data is presented. The statistical procedure involves a two-stage cluster sample within a stratified random sample. The utility of this procedure is assessed by using it to estimate the areal extent of the conifer and hardwood resources of the continental U.S. National estimates of conifer and hardwood derived using this sampling procedure were within 3 percent of U.S. Forest Service (USFS) figures. According to the Landsat-based study, 11 percent of the country is conifer forest and 12 percent is hardwood. The corresponding USFS figures are 13 and 15 percent, respectively. Comparison of the MSS classification products and airphotos showed that the conifer cover class was correctly identified 74 percent of the time and hardwood 80 percent of the time. The average classification accuracy countrywide for the four cover types considered (conifer, hardwood, water, and 'other') is 74 percent, and the overall accuracy is 85 percent. The statistical procedure provides a method of incorporating Landsat MSS digital data as a second state for level-II continental resource assessment. Alternate data sources, e.g., satellite and aircraft photographic imagery, may also be used in conjunction with this statistical model.

Nelson, Ross↗

Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)

The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.

Kauffmann, Paul J.↗

Smart Scattering Scanning Near-Field Optical Microscopy

Scattering scanning near-field optical microscopy (s-SNOM) provides spectroscopic imaging from molecular to quantum materials with few nanometer deep subdiffraction limited spatial resolution. However, in its conventional implementation s-SNOM is slow to effectively acquire a series of spatio-spectral images, especially with large fields of view. This problem is further exacerbated for weak resonance contrast or when using light sources with limited spectral irradiance. Indeed, the generally limited signal-to-noise ratio prevents sampling a weak signal at the Nyquist sampling rate. Here, we demonstrate how acquisition time and sampling rate can be significantly reduced by using compressed sampling, matrix completion, and adaptive random sampling, while maintaining or even enhancing the physical or chemical image content. We use fully sampled real data sets of molecular, biological, and quantum materials as ground-truth physical data and show how deep under-sampling with a corresponding reduction of acquisition time by 1 order of magnitude or more retains the core s-SNOM image information. We demonstrate that a sampling rate of up to 6× smaller than the Nyquist criterion can be applied, which would provide a 30-fold reduction in the data required under typical experimental conditions. Furthermore, our smart s-SNOM approach is generally applicable and provides systematic full spatio-spectral s-SNOM imaging with a large field of view at high spectral resolution and reduced acquisition time.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗