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At least 91 records · Page 5

Quantifying subsurface parameter and transport uncertainty using surrogate modelling and environmental tracers

Here, we combine physics-based groundwater reactive transport modelling with machine-learning techniques to quantify hydrogeological model and solute transport predictive uncertainties. We train an artificial neural network (ANN) on a dataset of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations generated using a high-fidelity groundwater reactive transport model. Using the trained ANN as a surrogate model to reproduce the input–output response of the high-fidelity reactive transport model, we quantify the posterior distributions of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic forcing conditions using Markov chain Monte Carlo calibration against field observations of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations. We demonstrate the methodology with a model application that predicts Chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) solute transport at a contaminated field site in Wyoming, United States. Our results show that including 3 H observations in the calibration dataset reduced the uncertainty in the estimated permeability field and infiltration rates, compared to calibration against hydraulic heads alone. However, predictive uncertainty quantification shows that CFC-12 transport predictions conditioned to the parameter posterior distributions cannot reproduce the field measurements. We found that calibrating the model to hydraulic head and 3 H observations results in groundwater mean ages that are too large to explain the observed CFC-12 concentrations. The coupling of the physics-based reactive transport model with the machine-learning surrogate model allows us to efficiently quantify model parameter and predictive uncertainties, which is typically computationally intractable using reactive transport models alone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling supercritical CO 2 flow and mineralization in reactive host rocks with PFLOTRAN v7.0

Understanding the flow and reactivity of CO 2 injected into geological reservoirs is important for many subsurface applications including secure geologic carbon storage (GCS), critical mineral extraction, enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), and enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Traditionally, subsurface CO 2 injection for GCS applications has focused on geologic formations with favorable subsurface configurations for CO 2 migration and trapping through non-reactive mechanisms such as structural, solubility, and petrophysical trapping. Recently, CO 2 -reactive rocks such as mafic and ultramafic basalts have been investigated for their potential to react with injected CO 2 in situ to simultaneously dissolve host rock minerals and mineralize CO 2 as carbonates. Engineering rapid CO 2 mineralization in the subsurface is attractive because of the increased density of stored CO 2 , the additional safety factors associated with solidification, and the potential to extract valuable critical minerals. Here we present recent developments in the parallel flow and reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN to model coupled CO 2 -brine flow and reactive transport for a wide range of injection and production applications involving reactive CO 2 -brine systems. These developments are based on the well established and trusted CO 2 flow capabilities in the STOMP-CO 2 simulator. New capabilities added to PFLOTRAN include new CO 2 -brine equations of state with optional thermal coupling, several new constitutive relationships like capillary pressure smoothing and scanning path hysteresis, a fully implicit well model, and native linkage with PFLOTRAN's well-established reactive transport libraries. A series of benchmarks between PFLOTRAN and STOMP-CO 2 verify the newly developed CO 2 -brine flow capabilities. Demonstrations of coupled CO 2 -brine flow modeling and reactive transport show how CO 2 mineralization can be engineered in reactive host rocks. Finally, an example use case involving copper leaching by CO 2 and critical mineral extraction is presented to showcase the strengths of this new implementation. Several limitations still remain, including limited availability of field data to parameterize models. Future work should constrain the evolution of mineral surface area during mineralization and the temperature and/or pH dependence of geochemical reactions for specific systems of interest.

Critical Minerals↗