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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
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DOE OSTI2024

Towards Energy–Efficient Direct Air Capture with Photochemically–Driven CO 2 Release and Solvent Regeneration

The intensive energy demands associated with solvent regeneration and CO 2 release in current direct air capture (DAC) technologies makes their deployment at the massive scales (GtCO 2 /year) required to positively impact the climate economically unfeasible. This challenge underscores the critical need to develop new DAC processes with significantly reduced energy costs. Recently, we developed a new approach to photochemically drive efficient release of CO 2 through an intermolecular proton transfer reaction by exploiting the unique properties of an indazole metastable-state photoacid (mPAH), opening a new avenue towards energy efficient on-demand CO 2 release and solvent regeneration using abundant solar energy instead of heat. In this Concept Article, we will describe the principle of our photochemically-driven CO 2 release approach for solvent-based DAC systems, discuss the essential prerequisites and conditions to realize this cyclable CO 2 release chemistry under ambient conditions. We outline the key findings of our approach, discuss the latest developments from other research laboratories, detail approaches used to monitor DAC systems in situ, and highlight experimental procedures for validating its feasibility. Finally, we conclude with a summary and outlook into the immediate challenges that must be addressed in order to fully exploit this novel photochemically-driven approach to DAC solvent regeneration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Programmable bionanocomposite coated fertilizers for prolonged controlled release of nitrogen

Controlled-release fertilizers (CRFs) present a promising solution for alleviating food and nutrient scarcity. However, their development has been mainly hindered by both rapid and unsynchronized nutrient release and unsustainable coating materials. In this study, we address this issue by developing a new coating layer for CRFs using a programmable biopolyurethane nanocomposite. This nanocomposite is prepared from diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI)-functionalized bentonite nanoclay (BNT-MDI) and a biopolyol from biomass waste. The results show that the BNT-MDI-doped CRFs (BCRFs) exhibit an impressive nitrogen (N)-release longevity of approximately 120 days at a 4 wt% coating ratio, surpassing previous CRF formulations. In a 30-day snap bean cultivation study, BCRF significantly improved root length (1000%), leaf length (257%), leaf width (400%), and plant height (1400%) compared to the control. The superior performance of BCRF is attributed to the PU-nanoclay biocomposite film, with full nano-exfoliation, controllable porosity, and high crosslinking density. Furthermore, we introduce a new dynamic release mechanism and establish a quantitative relationship between the nanostructure, property, and release performance of BCRF by combining the multiplicative and diffusion models for porous materials. Finally, this study provides a theoretical framework and a straightforward methodology for designing programmable nanocomposite structures for future biobased CRFs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Context matters: Natural tree mortality can lead to neighbor growth release or suppression

Where competition suppresses tree growth, mortality of adjacent trees can release the surviving individuals, leading to a growth increase. However, primary forests are complicated systems, where trees interact in both competitive and facilitative ways mediated by their size, species, and the broad ecological context in which they grow. Thus, the magnitude and even direction of growth responses to the mortality of nearby trees may vary, which has implications for our understanding of community- and ecosystem-level dynamics following mortality events. Unfortunately, although many studies focus on the impacts of light availability and general crowding on tree growth, we know relatively little about the effects of naturally occurring mortality events on the growth of neighboring trees. To address this issue, we used 40 years of data from 15 permanent forest-monitoring plots in Mt Rainier old-growth forests, comparing observed to expected radial growth of individual trees following the death of their nearest neighbor. Although we found evidence of a general growth-release response, this was not universal among all trees, with small trees in particular exhibiting growth suppression (rather than release) following neighboring tree mortality. In addition to small size, growth-suppression was more likely if the dead neighbor was the same species, consistent with facilitative effects as mediated through belowground networks. At the stand level, the average growth release after nearest neighbor mortality was greatest in low-density stands with large trees, with elevation and community composition also playing a role. Decades more monitoring could reveal how long growth release (or suppression) is sustained by individual trees following neighboring mortality events, as well as potential response lags and the role of species identity in determining whether interactions with neighbors are competitive or facilitative. Nonetheless, our results suggest that although mature trees have competitive effects on their larger neighbors, they also have an important role in supporting the ingrowth of small trees. More broadly, we demonstrate that the nature of interactions between individual neighboring trees is highly context dependent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metabolite release by nitrifiers facilitates metabolic interactions in the ocean

Microbial chemoautotroph-heterotroph interactions may play a pivotal role in the cycling of carbon in the deep ocean, reminiscent of phytoplankton-heterotroph associations in surface waters. Nitrifiers are the most abundant chemoautotrophs in the global ocean, yet very little is known about nitrifier metabolite production, release, and transfer to heterotrophic microbial communities. To elucidate which organic compounds are released by nitrifiers and potentially available to heterotrophs, we characterized the exo- and endometabolomes of the ammonia-oxidizing archaeon Nitrosopumilus adriaticus CCS1 and the nitrite-oxidizing bacterium Nitrospina gracilis Nb-211. Nitrifier endometabolome composition was not a good predictor of exometabolite availability, indicating that metabolites were predominately released by mechanisms other than cell death/lysis. Although both nitrifiers released labile organic compounds, N. adriaticus preferentially released amino acids, particularly glycine, suggesting that its cell membranes might be more permeable to small, hydrophobic amino acids. We further initiated co-culture systems between each nitrifier and a heterotrophic alphaproteobacterium, and compared exometabolite and transcript patterns of nitrifiers grown axenically to those in co-culture. In particular, B vitamins exhibited dynamic production and consumption patterns in nitrifier-heterotroph co-cultures. We observed an increased production of vitamin B 2 and the vitamin B 12 lower ligand dimethylbenzimidazole by N. adriaticus and N. gracilis, respectively. In contrast, the heterotroph likely produced vitamin B 5 in co-culture with both nitrifiers and consumed the vitamin B 7 precursor dethiobiotin when grown with N. gracilis. Our results indicate that B vitamins and their precursors could play a particularly important role in governing specific metabolic interactions between nitrifiers and heterotrophic microbes in the ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experiments and Simulations to Describe Alkalinity Release from Particle-Containing Oil-in-Water Emulsions and Particle Suspensions

Among the most common amendments added to groundwater during site remediation are compounds used to adjust or maintain the pH. This research describes an approach to encapsulate mineral particles (MgO and CaCO 3 ) within oil droplets suspended within an aqueous phase for the purpose of delivery to the subsurface environment. A series of batch experiments was combined with mathematical modeling to illustrate the encapsulation and understand the influence of particle encapsulation on rates and extents of alkalinity release. The encapsulation of the alkalinity-releasing particles results in slower rates of amendment release as compared to rates obtained using suspensions of bare mineral particles, allowing for the possibility of control as a function of the pH. The results indicate that the alkalinity release from particle suspensions followed a mineral dissolution mechanism that could not explain the rate of the alkalinity release of the encapsulated particles. The reduction in mineral dissolution rates observed with the encapsulated particles was found to result from a mass transfer limitation. This limitation was well described using a linear driving force expression to account for the resistance to mass transfer at the oil–water interface.

EVO↗
DOE OSTI2020

A comparative study on the physicochemical characteristics of nanoparticles released in vivo from CoCrMo tapers and cement–stem interfaces of total hip replacements

The good biocompatibility and corrosion resistance of the bulk CoCrMo alloy has resulted in it being used in the manufacture of implants and load bearing medical devices. These devices, however, can release wear and corrosion products which differ from the composition of the bulk CoCrMo alloy. The physicochemical characteristics of the particles and the associated in vivo reactivity are dictated by the wear mechanisms and electrochemical conditions at the sites of material loss. Debris released from CoCrMo hip bearings, taper junctions, or cement–stem interfaces can, therefore, have different chemical and morphological characteristics, which provide them with different in vivo toxicities. Here, we propose to assess and compare the characteristics of the particles released in vivo from CoCrMo tapers and cement–stem interfaces which have received less attention compared to debris originating from the hip bearings. The study uses state–of–art characterization techniques to provide a detailed understanding of the size, morphology, composition, and chemistry of the particles liberated from the wear and corrosion flakes from revised hip replacements, with an enzymatic treatment. The phase analyses identified Cr 2 O 3 nanoparticles released from tapers and cement–stem interfaces, whose composition did not vary with origin or particle morphology. The size distributions showed significantly smaller particles were released from the stems, compared to the particles originating from the corresponding tapers. Furthermore, the investigation demonstrates that the tribocorrosive processes occurring at the taper and stem interfaces both result in Cr 2 O 3 nanoparticle formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of oxidation on the release of multiple metals from industrially polluted sediments and synchrotron-based evidence of Cu–S dynamic association

Disposal operations for industrially polluted sediments are usually accompanied by disturbance and resuspension, which can induce metal remobilization and secondary pollution. Evaluating the risk of metal release under various redox conditions is fundamental for predicting contaminant mobilization and guiding remediation measures. An abandoned oxidation pond, Yanjia Lake, China, was selected as a typical industrially polluted site. Re-suspension experiments were carried out by mixing polluted sediments with lake water under oxic or anoxic conditions, then investigating the effect of oxidation conditions on the release of multiple metals. Metal concentrations and aqueous chemistry in the overlying water were monitored. Synchrotron-based methods, including X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS), were used to characterize oxidation states and coordination conditions of metals in sediments. The release of metals, including Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Se, Mo, Sn, Cd, and Pb, was enhanced under oxic vs. anoxic conditions. The XANES analysis revealed that elevated Cr and Zn concentrations under oxic conditions likely resulted from the oxidation of Cr(III) and oxidizing dissolution of ZnS, respectively. K-edge Cu XANES, S XANES, and Cu EXAFS analyses reconstructed the Cu–S association, indicating that S-related oxidation promoted Cu release and Cu–O partly replaced Cu–S in the sediment after a 7-day oxic treatment. The release of most metals was promoted under oxic conditions, resulting from the oxidation of sulfides and metals as indicated by aqueous and synchrotron-based evidence. The risk of secondary pollution is greatly enhanced under oxic conditions, which suggests that measures should be taken to minimize the redox disturbance during sediment remediation. This information can guide the management of sediments in Yanjia Lake and other contaminated sites with similar properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phase field modeling of hydrogen release in nitrile-butadiene rubber composites after high-pressure hydrogen exposure

Experimental data showed that a simple diffusion model doesn’t suffice to explain the hydrogen (H 2 ) release kinetics in nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) composites (one with no filler or plasticizer, one with plasticizer only, one with fillers and plasticizer, and one with fillers only) after exposed to hydrogen gas at a pressure of 27.6 MPa. In this work, we developed a phase field model that considers the effect of H 2 gas bubble evolution on H 2 release kinetics. With the model, we simulated the effect of thermodynamic and kinetics properties on the nucleation, growth, and shrinkage of gas bubbles and H 2 release kinetics during and after decompression. Here, the results demonstrated that 1) the model built upon certain thermodynamic and kinetics properties of a given material can well describe its H 2 release kinetics measured in experiments, and 2) the model can predict the gas bubble evolution, which is associated with the material property degradation and failures, with accurate thermodynamic and kinetics properties or H 2 release data from experiments.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Empirical and mechanistic transient fission gas release model for high-burnup LOCA conditions

In response to the nuclear industry desire to extend burnup beyond current licensing practices, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) released a research information letter (RIL) that provides a basis for analyzing fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) in light-water reactors. Of the five elements discussed, the most ambiguous is the significance of transient fission gas (FG) release (FGR) (tFGR) and its effects on fuel performance under loss-of-coolant accident conditions. In fresh fuel, FG migration and eventual release is primarily governed by diffusion-based mechanisms at higher temperatures (>1,000 °C). However, the mechanisms governing FGR changes as burnup increases. More recent research indicates that FGR increases as burnup increases, specifically under temperature transient conditions, and this release occurs at lower temperatures with a new release mechanism. This behavior has been attributed to microcracking in the fuel and is likely related to microstructure embrittlement with the presence of over pressurized FG bubbles. The NRC RIL outlines the complexity of the phenomenon and a need for a deeper understanding to adequately address FFRD for regulatory application. Here, therefore, this manuscript intends to summarize the publicly available tFGR data and discuss the observed dependencies (e.g., burnup, heating rate, sample geometry, terminal temperature). An empirical model has been developed and benchmarked against recently published experimental data. However, this empirical model is limited to conditions for which fitting data exist and, therefore, a high-level discussion is included to provide a roadmap for atomistically-informed multiscale modeling in conjunction with experimental data collection to develop a mechanistic tFGR model widely applicable to a broad range of nuclear fuel conditions at high burnup.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental measurement of energy release from an initiating layer in an insensitive explosive

When subjected to a shock of insufficient strength to trigger prompt reaction, heterogenous condensed phase explosives can form regions where significant amounts of the explosive remain unreacted for times much greater than the reaction time of the detonating explosive. This phenomena is observed for the explosive PBX 9502 (95 wt% TATB) both for planar and oblique input shocks. Here, we build on previous results by performing cylinder expansion (CYLEX) tests where the explosive charge is comprised of a faster core of PBX 9501 (95 wt% HMX) inside a slower annulus of PBX 9502. The detonation in the faster PBX 9501 drives an oblique shock into the adjacent PBX 9502, and an annular transverse initiating layer (IL) results. In the test geometry, the IL travels steadily down the length of the test after a short run distance. At radial positions beyond the IL, an annular region of detonating PBX 9502 is observed. Using standard CYLEX test diagnostics, we infer the total energy release of this experiment. By making the assumptions that (1) the combined energy release is comprised of contributions from detonating PBX 9501, detonating PBX 9502, and the IL in the PBX 9502 and (2) mass-specific energy release for the detonating explosives is approximately the same as typically observed for each explosive, the IL energy release and reaction efficiency can be computed. Results are compared to prior results for a similar geometry, and indicate that while shock deadened PBX 9502 does not detonate promptly, it does eventually release a significant portion of its chemical potential energy over longer timescales on the order of 10 µs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraining the release of Sn to the ambient melting point following shock loading using time-resolved x-ray diffraction

The formation of liquid following release from a shocked state governs the transition from spall to cavitation and the formation of ejecta in metals. In order to build physics-based models of these processes, it is necessary to critically evaluate the relative importance of kinetics and entropy generation during the release along with the accuracy of multiphase equations of state. Tin (Sn) has served as a testbed for a variety of experiments examining strength and ejecta due to its accessible melt boundary and solid–solid phase transitions. This work presents experiments examining the phase evolution of high purity Sn following the shock and release to ambient stress near the melting point. Sn is found to release to states between its ambient solidus and liquidus from approximately 19 to 33 GPa under uniaxial loading, with the two-phase region being characterized by a reduction in the intensity of the (220), (211) β -Sn doublet. Jetting experiments performed at 27–28 GPa exhibit comparable diffraction patterns with what is observed following the uniaxial release. The solid fractions of β-Sn in the ambient mixed phase region are found to decrease linearly with increasing shock stress as increasing liquid Sn is formed. Here, the results provide much needed information for interpreting measurements of dynamic strength at a high strain rate and experiments examining cavitation and shallow bubble collapse in Sn.

, spall↗
DOE OSTI2022

Third data release of the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program

This work presents the third data release of the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP), a wide-field multi-band imaging survey with the Subaru 8.2 m telescope. HSC-SSP has three survey layers (Wide, Deep, and UltraDeep) with different area coverages and depths, designed to address a wide array of astrophysical questions. This third release from HSC-SSP includes data from 278 nights of observing time and covers about 670 deg 2 in all five broad-band filters (grizy) at the full depth (~26 mag at 5σ depending on filter) in the Wide layer. If we include partially observed areas, the release covers 1470 deg 2 . The Deep and UltraDeep layers have ~80% of the originally planned integration times, and are considered done, as we have slightly changed the observing strategy in order to compensate for various time losses. There are a number of updates in the image processing pipeline. Of particular importance is the change in the sky subtraction algorithm; we subtract the sky on small scales before the detection and measurement stages, which has significantly reduced the number of false detections. Thanks to this and other updates, the overall quality of the processed data has improved since the previous release. However, there are limitations in the data (for example, the pipeline is not optimized for crowded fields), and we encourage the user to check the quality assurance plots as well as a list of known issues before exploiting the data. The data release website is https://hsc-release.mtk.nao.ac.jp.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Translocation of Long-Term Captive Eastern Box Turtles and the Efficacy of Soft-Release: Implications for Turtle Confiscations

Translocation, the human mediated movement of organisms, is an important tool to conserve wildlife populations, and turtles are commonly subject to this management action. One potential source stock for turtle translocations are animals confiscated from the illegal wildlife trade or otherwise held in captivity. There is limited information, however, on the post-release behavior and survival of these animals. We monitored 26 translocated long-term captive (i.e., former pet) Eastern Box Turtles (Terrapene carolina carolina) to assess their survivorship, space use, and the effects of soft-release (penning) on site fidelity. We found long-term captives displayed high first-year survivorship (88.5–92.3%) and similar space use to resident turtles, and that soft-release was effective at reducing post-release movements. Furthermore, our study indicates long-term captive turtles may be suitable for release and provides insights for how confiscated turtles may best contribute to conservation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

MARSAME Radiological Release Report for Weapons Facility Operations #4 Decontamination and Demolition Project: TA-14-0005, TA-15-0009, TA-15-0202, TA-15-0233, TA-36-0019

Environmental Protection and Compliance, Environmental Stewardship (EPC-ES) has identified materials associated with Weapons Facility Operations (WFO) #4 that meet the criteria for unrestricted release to the public under Department of Energy (DOE) Order 458.1, Radiation Protection for the Public and the Environment (DOE, 2020) and materials in one building that do not meet the criteria for unrestricted release and are to be treated as low level waste (LLW). These conclusions are based on the known history of the buildings combined with radiation survey data data collected in 2022 and 2023. The findings are consistent with DOE Order 458.1 and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Functional Series Document EPC-ES-FSD-004, Environmental Radiation Protection (LANL, 2021). Sampling and data analysis, as described in this report, were sufficient to meet measurement quality objectives (MQOs) under the Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Assessment of Materials and Equipment (MARSAME) manual (NUREG, 2009) and LANL procedures (LANL, 2020). Final approvals for waste disposition will come from LANL’s Waste Management Program. The scope of this final release report includes Technical Area (TA) 14 Building 5 (TA-14-0005), TA-15 Buildings 9, 202, and 233 (TA-15-0009/0202/0233), and TA-36 Building 19 (TA-36-0019). MARSAME provides guidance on statistical sampling for residual radionuclides in bulk materials; smaller, miscellaneous items can be released via the release procedures outlined in LANL Policy 121 Radiation Protection (LANL, 2023).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of Mechanistic Fission Gas Release and Swelling Models for UN Fuels in BISON

This report describes the work in NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) to develop a mechanistic fission gas model for uranium nitride fuels in BISON. The existing Sifgrs (Simple integrated fission gas release and swelling) model tracks the average properties of two bubble populations in the bulk and at the grain boundaries. It was recognized that dislocations play a crucial role in the fission gas swelling of UN, and an irradiation-induced dislocation density model was needed, as well as a model describing how fission gas interacts with dislocations creating a third population of bubbles along dislocations. A mechanistic model that tracks dislocation bubbles was implemented in Sifgrs. This model was used to simulate fission gas swelling and release in UN. Lower-length-scale calculations and experimental observations from carbide fuel were leveraged to help populate the model with essential parameters. As a placeholder, an empirical function was formulated for the evolution of the dislocation network. Because of the difference in evolution of this network at different temperatures, the dislocation bubbles are able to capture behavior that the bulk intragranular bubbles cannot. It was found that the bulk bubbles dominate microscopic swelling at low temperatures, and the dislocation bubbles dominate at higher temperatures. Based on this model, the transition between the two bubble types is the main factor behind the breakaway swelling phenomenon in UN. In order to test the model, a couple of assessments were run. For the lower temperature JOYO pins, the model produces reasonable fission gas release and swelling values. For the higher temperature SP1 pin, the model dramatically underestimates the fission gas release. This issue is attributed to the gas being trapped inside dislocation bubbles, unable to escape to grain boundaries to cause fission gas release, and could be remedied by a mechanistic dislocation model that allows the dislocation density to decrease at very high temperatures. A preliminary mechanistic dislocation model was developed supported by first-principle calculations. These calculations provided valuable insight into how interstitial defects cluster in UN in the {110} orientation, and may eventually form dislocation loops, leading to the conclusion that dislocation loops may nucleate from these clusters. An estimate of the dislocation line energy in UN was obtained and will be improved in future work. The free-energy cluster dynamics code Centipede was used to track interstitial and vacancy absorption at dislocation loops and calculate their growth. In addition, improvements to Centipede were made including new convergence criteria for transient simulations and sink driving force updates.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Innovative High Throughput Genome Releaser for Rapid and Efficient PCR Screening

High-throughput PCR screening is vital in synthetic biology and metabolic engineering as it allows researchers to rapidly analyze and detect numerous targeted genetic mutation in the genome. Current challenges for high-throughput PCR screening in synthetic biology include efficiently preparing genomic DNA, optimizing protocols for diverse sample types, managing contamination risks, and effectively analyzing the large volumes of data generated while ensuring consistent and accurate results. In this study, we present the development of a High Throughput Genome Releaser (HTGR), an innovative device addressing common challenges in screening PCR. This genome DNA releaser is designed based on a squash method for rapid, cost-effective, and efficient DNA release, optimized for subsequent PCR reactions. After experimenting with various synthetic materials, we selected a plastic that closely replicates the smooth surface and compression properties of microscope slides, ensuring reliable performance. We engineered a device featuring a 96-Well Plate and a shear applicator, operable both manually and automatically, and compatible with standard liquid-handling robot platform. This compatibility enhances ease of use in high-throughput PCR workflows. Additionally, we developed software to support its automatic functions. Our results demonstrated that the specially engineered 96-Well Plate and HTGR can effectively squash fungal spores , which release enough genome DNA for PCR screening. The genome releaser facilitates the preparation of PCR-amplifiable genomic DNA substrate from 96 samples within minutes, eliminates the need for extraction buffers, and is adaptable to a wide range of microorganisms and cells, which could significantly advance biomanufacturing processes.

Yuan, Guoliang [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Point Sensor Networks Struggle to Detect and Quantify Short Controlled Releases at Oil and Gas Sites

This study evaluated multiple commercially available continuous monitoring (CM) point sensor network (PSN) solutions under single-blind controlled release testing conducted at operational upstream and midstream oil and natural gas (O&G) sites. During releases, PSNs reported site-level emission rate estimates of 0 kg/h between 38 and 86% of the time. When non-zero site-level emission rate estimates were provided, no linear correlation between the release rate and the reported emission rate estimate was observed. The average, aggregated across all PSN solutions during releases, shows 5% of the mixing ratio readings at downwind sensors were greater than the site’s baseline plus two standard deviations. Four of seven total PSN solutions tested during this field campaign provided site-level emission rate estimates with the site average relative error ranging from −100% to 24% for solution D, −100% to −43% for solution E, −25% for solution F (solution F was only at one site), and −99% to 430% for solution G, with an overall average of −29% across all sites and solutions. Of all the individual site-level emission rate estimates, only 11% were within ±2.5 kg/h of the study team’s best estimate of site-level emissions at the time of the releases.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗