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NASA's Risk Management System

Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Perera, Jeevan S.

NASA's Risk Management System

Phased‐approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest‐level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management.  Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Perera, Jeevan S.

Optimizing Sample Collection and Accessibility through the Biospecimen and Tissue Sharing Collection (BTSC) Program

The Space Radiation Element (SRE) of the Human Research Program (HRP) is dedicated to establishing a robust biospecimen and tissue sharing collection (BTSC) program that enhances sample collection, tracking, access, distribution, and usability, with the goal of maximizing scientific return. By leveraging biospecimens and tissues from previous experiments, HRP effectively achieves its scientific objectives in characterizing and mitigating the human health impacts of spaceflight while optimizing resource utilization. To further improve the usability and accessibility of the current biospecimen archive, the project aims to expand upon NASA's existing resources and institutional knowledge, ensuring ongoing modernization. To facilitate seamless navigation of the program's workflow, an educational series on the BTSC program is provided to Principal Investigators (PIs). This comprehensive series equips PIs with crucial information on submitting their inventory via the BTSC Metadata Intake Form, ultimately leading to the public availability of their data on NASA's Life Science Portal (NLSP). Covering various aspects such as metadata submission instructions and backend processes for transferring metadata to the Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS), the series incorporates guidance from NASA's Biological Institutional Scientific Collection (NBISC) and Ames Life Sciences Data Archive (ALSDA). The BTSC program represents a significant stride towards enhancing the usability and accessibility of biospecimens for space research. By enabling NASA to deepen its understanding of the health implications of long-term spaceflight, this initiative plays a pivotal role in ensuring the safety and well-being of astronauts.

Shelita Renee Augustus

Assessment of Quantum ML Applicability for Climate Actions: Comparison of the Variational Quantum Classifier and the Quantum Support Vector Classifier with Classical ML Models

Climate change refers to significant and long-term alterations in the Earth’s climate patterns, typically resulting from human activities that increase greenhouse gas emissions. Addressing climate change is not merely an option but a necessity, demanding creative solutions and efforts from individuals, researchers, communities, and governments. Despite the capabilities of machine learning (ML) with data-driven solutions promising to combat climate change-related problems, they face challenges stemming from traditional computational methods and prolonged training times, impeding their practical utility. Recent strides in quantum computing have permeated diverse domains, spanning from manufacturing engineering and pharmaceutical discovery to the latest frontier of detecting climate anomalies. With the potential to substantially reduce time and computational complexity, quantum computing shows promise in addressing climate change impacts. Its distinctive features will enable the concurrent exploration of expansive solution spaces, making it well-suited for analyzing extensive climate datasets, simulating intricate climate models, optimizing resource allocation, and discerning patterns in climate data for mitigation and adaptation endeavors. This study explores the potential of using Quantum machine learning (QML) techniques on climate and weather data obtained from NASA Giovannis. We used two QML algorithms, the Quantum Support Vector Classifier (QSVC) and the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) models, using the IBM Qiskit ML 0.7.2 ecosystem. We used an actual 127-Qubit IBM Quantum Computer (IBM 127-qubit Eagle) in this study. The methodology and results sections describe the experiences gained from applying and evaluating quantum ML results on climate and weather data obtained from NASA satellites as a novel practical application of quantum computing.

Earth Observational Data

Implementation and Demonstration of the Digital Twin Certification System Remote Operations Framework

Microreactors are one promising advanced-reactor concept being pursued by the nuclear industry. They are distinguished by a relatively low power output of 20 MWth or less. These microreactors are intended for deployment in applications where conventional small-capacity power solutions, such as diesel generators, are either economically unfeasible or logistically challenging. Such applications include providing electric power and/or heat for remote communities, mining sites, defense installations, and humanitarian and disaster-relief missions. An important feature for the successful deployment of microreactors is their capability to be operated remotely. This capability can significantly reduce staffing costs by eliminating the need for licensed operators to be physically present at each reactor site. Instead, operators can be centralized in a single remote operations center placed in an economically advantageous location, thereby optimizing resources by consolidating expertise and enhancing operational efficiency. However, the implementation of a remote operation system for nuclear reactors raises new concerns regarding the security, reliability, and resilience of such a system. One way in which remote operations can be supported in a manner that maintains system security, reliability, and resilience is through the use of digital twins in a novel framework designed to verify and validate sensor data and commands communicated between the remote operations center and reactor. This framework, known as the Digital Twin Certification System (DTCS), has previously been proposed as an operations architecture that can bring security and resiliency levels of remote nuclear-reactor operations to a level acceptable for commercial deployment. This paper moves the proposed DTCS architecture from concept to reality by presenting the implementation and testing of the system. The rationale and implementation of the DTCS using tools such as DeepLynx and Apache Airflow, is covered in-depth. This is followed by a demonstration of the DTCS by applying the implemented system architecture to the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator, a small-scale non-nuclear test bed that emulates thermal behavior of a microreactor. The demonstration includes both normal and abnormal operating scenarios to highlight how the DTCS can increase the security, reliability, and resilience of a remote operations system.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Implementation and Demonstration of the Digital Twin Certification System Remote Operations Framework

Microreactors are one promising advanced-reactor concept being pursued by the nuclear industry. They are distinguished by a relatively low power output of 20 MWth or less. These microreactors are intended for deployment in applications where conventional small-capacity power solutions, such as diesel generators, are either economically unfeasible or logistically challenging. Such applications include providing electric power and/or heat for remote communities, mining sites, defense installations, and humanitarian and disaster-relief missions. An important feature for the successful deployment of microreactors is their capability to be operated remotely. This capability can significantly reduce staffing costs by eliminating the need for licensed operators to be physically present at each reactor site. Instead, operators can be centralized in a single remote operations center placed in an economically advantageous location, thereby optimizing resources by consolidating expertise and enhancing operational efficiency. However, the implementation of a remote operation system for nuclear reactors raises new concerns regarding the security, reliability, and resilience of such a system. One way in which remote operations can be supported in a manner that maintains system security, reliability, and resilience is through the use of digital twins in a novel framework designed to verify and validate sensor data and commands communicated between the remote operations center and reactor. This framework, known as the Digital Twin Certification System (DTCS), has previously been proposed as an operations architecture that can bring security and resiliency levels of remote nuclear-reactor operations to a level acceptable for commercial deployment. This paper moves the proposed DTCS architecture from concept to reality by presenting the implementation and testing of the system. The rationale and implementation of the DTCS using tools such as DeepLynx and Apache Airflow, is covered in-depth. This is followed by a demonstration of the DTCS by applying the implemented system architecture to the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator, a small-scale non-nuclear test bed that emulates thermal behavior of a microreactor. The demonstration includes both normal and abnormal operating scenarios to highlight how the DTCS can increase the security, reliability, and resilience of a remote operations system.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Modeling and Optimization of a Nuclear Integrated Energy System for the Remote Microgrid on El Hierro

Nuclear microreactors are a potential technology to provide heat and electricity for remote microgrids. There is potential for the microgrid on the island of El Hierro to use a microreactor, within an integrated energy system (IES), to generate electricity and provide desalinated water. This work proposes a workflow for optimizing and analyzing IESs for microgrids. In this study, an IES incorporating a microreactor, thermal energy storage (TES) system, combined heat and power plant, and a thermal desalination plant was designed, optimized, and analyzed using Idaho National Laboratory’s Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) toolset. The optimization tool, Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), was used to determine the optimal capacity sizes and dispatch for the reactor and thermal energy storage systems to meet demand. The optimized reactor and TES sizes were found to be 11.61 MWth and 58.47 MWhth, respectively, when optimizing the IES to replace 95% of the island’s existing diesel generation needs. A dynamic model of the system was created in the Modelica language, using models from the HYBRID repository, to analyze and verify the dispatch from the optimizer. The dynamic model was able to meet the ramp rates while maintaining reactor power with minimal control adjustments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Mars Mission Optimization Based on Collocation of Resources

This paper presents a powerful approach for analyzing Martian data and for optimizing mission site selection based on resource collocation. This approach is implemented in a program called PROMT (Planetary Resource Optimization and Mapping Tool), which provides a wide range of analysis and display functions that can be applied to raw data or imagery. Thresholds, contours, custom algorithms, and graphical editing are some of the various methods that can be used to process data. Output maps can be created to identify surface regions on Mars that meet any specific criteria. The use of this tool for analyzing data, generating maps, and collocating features is demonstrated using data from the Mars Global Surveyor and the Odyssey spacecraft. The overall mission design objective is to maximize a combination of scientific return and self-sufficiency based on utilization of local materials. Landing site optimization involves maximizing accessibility to collocated science and resource features within a given mission radius. Mission types are categorized according to duration, energy resources, and in-situ resource utilization. Optimization results are shown for a number of mission scenarios.

G E Chamitoff

Neural-Network Processor Would Allocate Resources

Global optimization problems solved quickly. Neural-network processor optimizes allocation of M resources among N expenditures according to cost of pairing each resource with each expenditure and subject to limit on number of resources feeding into each expenditure and/or limit on number of expenditures to which each resource allocated. One cell performs several analog and digital functions. Potential applications include assignment of jobs, scheduling, dispatching, and planning of military maneuvers.

Eberhardt, Silvio P.

Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine

The Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) is software tool written in python, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) that provides an easily accessible application-programming-interface (API) to performing resource dispatch optimization analysis for integrated energy system (IES) configurations. DOVE is an integral part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) software suite and is leveraged by codes such as the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the Optimization of Real-Time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). The philosophy behind DOVE is to provide a modular software solution to IES planning and operation by utilizing state-of-the-art algorithms and machine learning. The goal is to accurately capture the dispatching behavior of a complex energy system given varying time-dependent signals for demand and commodity pricing.

McDowell, DylanJ. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)

Bipolar Membrane Electrodialyzers as Flexible Demand Response Resources: Co-Optimization of Cost Savings and Product Formation

Bipolar membrane electro dialyzers (BPMED) are widely used for chemical production and processing, including in the emerging ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) industry. In this paper, we explore the potential of BPMED devices as flexible electrochemical loads within power system operations. Using a multi-objective optimization framework, we evaluate BPMED operation across 24-hour and monthly horizons to examine how dispatch strategies respond to electricity price and grid conditions. Simulation results show that altering the relative weights of the choices in the objective function strongly shape the operating patterns, with cost-focused strategies that suppress the operation during peak prices. Furthermore, we propose alternative formulations that optimize operations to achieve both cost savings and alignment with periods of lower grid-side carbon intensity (CI), as low grid-side CI is key to maximize OAE efficiency. Additionally, a detailed sensitivity analysis highlights the importance of device properties, where low area-specific resistance (ASR) of membrane and high current efficiency (CE) are observed to jointly unlock cost-effective operation. However, even modest shunt efficiency losses are observed to erode performance and decrease system value. Importantly, the analysis demonstrates that BPMED can serve as a controllable and flexible demand response resource, shifting load to support multiple grid-side objectives, including (but not limited to) renewable integration, alleviate peak demand, and provide co-benefits for system reliability. These findings underscore BPMED’s dual role as a process technology and a grid-supporting asset, pointing to promising pathways for operational optimization of multiple objectives.

Bhattacharya, Saptarshi (ORCID:0000000308902060)

Optimization of distributed compute resources utilization in the CMS Global Pool

The CMS Submission Infrastructure is the primary system for managing computing resources for CMS workflows, including data processing, simulation, and analysis. It integrates geographically distributed resources from Grid, HPC, and cloud providers into federated pools managed by HTCondor and Glidein- WMS, for a total of around 500k CPU cores. This system dynamically manages workloads based on priorities defined by the collaboration. Additionally, CMS scheduling strategies must be flexible to handle multiple concurrent workloads while considering changing processing demands and resource availability from various providers.Efficient utilization of vast amounts of distributed compute resources is a key element for the success of the scientific programs of the LHC experiments. Optimizing the system is essential to maximize resource efficiency and fully utilize the distributed computing power. The CMS Submission Infrastructure team thus systematically investigates sources of inefficiency in workload scheduling to reduce their impact. In addition, a strategy of pilot overloading has been introduced to compensate for other inefficiency sources, thereby optimizing resource utilization and enhancing computational throughput.

Mascheroni, Marco [UC, San Diego (main)]

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Optimal dynamic control of resources in a distributed system

The authors quantitatively formulate the problem of controlling resources in a distributed system so as to optimize a reward function and derive optimal control strategies using Markov decision theory. The control variables treated are quite general; they could be control decisions related to system configuration, repair, diagnostics, files, or data. Two algorithms for resource control in distributed systems are derived for time-invariant and periodic environments, respectively. A detailed example to demonstrate the power and usefulness of the approach is provided.

Shin, Kang G.

Autonomous In-Situ Resources Prospector

This presentation will describe the concept of an autonomous, intelligent, rover-based rapid surveying system to identify and map several key lunar resources to optimize their ISRU (In Situ Resource Utilization) extraction potential. Prior to an extraction phase for any target resource, ground-based surveys are needed to provide confirmation of remote observation, to quantify and map their 3-D distribution, and to locate optimal extraction sites (e.g. ore bodies) with precision to maximize their economic benefit. The system will search for and quantify optimal minerals for oxygen production feedstock, water ice, and high glass-content regolith that can be used for building materials. These are targeted because of their utility and because they are, or are likely to be, variable in quantity over spatial scales accessible to a rover (i.e., few km). Oxygen has benefits for life support systems and as an oxidizer for propellants. Water is a key resource for sustainable exploration, with utility for life support, propellants, and other industrial processes. High glass-content regolith has utility as a feedstock for building materials as it readily sinters upon heating into a cohesive matrix more readily than other regolith materials or crystalline basalts. Lunar glasses are also a potential feedstock for oxygen production, as many are rich in iron and titanium oxides that are optimal for oxygen extraction. To accomplish this task, a system of sensors and decision-making algorithms for an autonomous prospecting rover is described. One set of sensors will be located in the wheel tread of the robotic search vehicle providing contact sensor data on regolith composition. Another set of instruments will be housed on the platform of the rover, including VIS-NIR imagers and spectrometers, both for far-field context and near-field characterization of the regolith in the immediate vicinity of the rover. Also included in the sensor suite are a neutron spectrometer, ground-penetrating radar, and an instrumented cone penetrometer for subsurface assessment. Output from these sensors will be evaluated autonomously in real-time by decision-making software to evaluate if any of the targeted resources has been detected, and if so, to quantify their abundance. Algorithms for optimizing the mapping strategy based on target resource abundance and distribution are also included in the autonomous software. This approach emphasizes on-the-fly survey measurements to enable efficient and rapid prospecting of large areas, which will improve the economics of ISRU system approaches. The mature technology will enable autonomous rovers to create in-situ resource maps of lunar or other planetary surfaces, which will facilitate human and robotic exploration.

Dissly, R. W.

Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources

INTRODUCTION: Long-duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the space medical system. Beyond the traditional limitations in mass, power, and volume, consideration must be given to other factors such as the inability to evacuate to Earth, communication delays, and limitations in clinical skillsets. As NASA develops the medical system for an exploration mission, it must have an ability to evaluate the trade space of what resources will be most important. The Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources (MONSTR) was developed over the past year for this reason, and is now a system for managing data pertaining to medical resources and their relative importance when addressing medical conditions. METHODS: The MONSTR web application with a Microsoft SQL database backend was developed and made accessible to Tableau v9.3 for analysis and visualization. The database was initially populated with a list of medical conditions of concern for an exploration mission taken from the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), a probabilistic model designed to quantify in-flight medical risk. A team of physicians working within the Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA's Human Research Program compiled a list diagnostic and treatment medical resources required to address best- and worst-case scenarios of each medical condition using a terrestrial standard of care and entered this data into the system. This list included both tangible resources (e.g. medical equipment, medications) and intangible resources (e.g. clinical skills required to perform a procedure). The physician team then assigned criticality values to each instance of a resource, representing the importance of that resource to diagnosing or treating its associated condition(s). Medical condition probabilities of occurrence during a Mars mission were pulled from the IMM and imported into the MONSTR database for use within a resource criticality-weighting algorithm. DISCUSSION: The MONSTR tool is a novel approach to assess the relative value of individual resources needed for the diagnosis and treatment of medical conditions. Future work will add resources for prevention and long term care of these conditions. Once data collection is complete, MONSTR will provide the operational and research communities at NASA with information to support informed decisions regarding areas of research investment, future crew training, and medical supplies manifested as part of any exploration medical system.

Rubin, D.