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DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Drought Behavior in the Colorado River Basin Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Drought is a pressing issue for the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the social and economic value of water resources in the region and the significant uncertainty of future drought under climate change. Here, we use climate simulations from various Earth System Models (ESMs) to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model and project multiple drought indicators for the sub-watersheds within the CRB. We apply an unsupervised machine learning (ML) based on Non-Negative Matrix Factorization using K-means clustering (NMFk) to synthesize the simulated historical, future, and change in drought indicators. The unsupervised ML approach can identify sub-watersheds where key changes to drought indicator behavior occur, including shifts in snowpack, snowmelt timing, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. While changes in future precipitation vary across ESMs, the results indicate that the Upper CRB will experience increasing evaporative demand and surface-water scarcity, with some locations experiencing a shift from a radiation-limited to a water-limited evaporation regime in the summer. Large shifts in peak runoff are observed in snowmelt-dominant sub-watersheds, with complete disappearance of the snowmelt signal for some sub-watersheds. The work demonstrates the utility of the NMFk algorithm to efficiently identify behavioral changes of drought indicators across space and time and to quickly analyze and interpret hydro climate model results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cutting-edge methods for amplifying the oxygen evolution reaction during seawater electrolysis: a brief synopsis

Electrochemical water splitting has been considered a clean and continual way for hydrogen (H 2 ) production. Direct seawater electrolysis is a potentially attractive technology due to the ample access to seawater and scarce freshwater resources in some regions. However, the presence of impurities (e.g., Cl - , Mg 2+ ) and the resulting corrosion and side reactions, such as the chloride oxidation reaction (ClOR), makes seawater electrocatalysis more challenging than that of fresh or alkaline water due to competition with the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) at the anode. Consequently, much effort has been devoted to developing approaches to enhance OER performance and suppress the ClOR. In this minireview, we summarize three general strategies for enhancing OER activity and selectivity in seawater electrolysis based on three different concepts: (1) the sole development of robust and high-performance OER catalysts in pure seawater electrolytes, (2) the introduction of additives to seawater electrolytes (e.g., alkalis and/or salts without chloride) to enhance the potential equilibrium gap between the ClOR and OER in combination with regular highly active OER catalysts, and (3) a combination of approaches (1) and (2). Finally, the current challenges and potential opportunities for green H 2 production from seawater electrolysis are briefly presented.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Climate models show colorado drying sooner and with greater certainty east of the continental divide

Many studies have examined the aridity of the Colorado River Basin and the possible impacts of climate change which could further strain already over-allocated water resources in the region. Fewer studies have examined the multiple Colorado Rocky Mountain headwater regions specifically. This is especially true of areas East of the Continental Divide, despite water originating there being critical to cities and agriculture in Eastern Colorado and further downstream. This paper explores and compares drying trends in the Eastern and Western Colorado Rocky Mountains using single-model initial-condition large ensembles from ten global climate models. The use of multiple models allows us to identify signals that are consistent across different physics parameterizations, model grids, and other model intricacies. The large ensembles also allow us to quantify the time of emergence of these climate change signals--that is, when did (or when will) the long term change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gasses exceed the internal variability of the climate system. Consistent with previous studies, we find evidence of drying on both sides of the Continental Divide. That drying is more pronounced, occurs sooner, and is more consistent across global climate models in the East, however, highlighting the region’s importance despite generally receiving less attention than the West.

Rugg, Allyson↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols’ climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols’ complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society’s ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Power Take-Off (PTO) for Wave Energy Converters Based on the Hybrid Hydraulic-Electric Architecture (HHEA)

Wave energy is a promising renewable energy resource for coastal regions around the world, but is not yet an economically competitive source of electricity. More effective power take-off (PTO) designs would help to make wave power a feasible and clean source of energy. To do this, PTOs need to: i) enable controlled actuation, ii) convert absorbed energy into electricity efficiently, and iii) have minimal manufacturing costs. We propose a new PTO architecture that can exert arbitrary control loads on the WEC to maximize energy capture, enabling the downsizing of expensive electrical components while maintaining high efficiency. Our PTO design is based upon a hybrid hydraulic-electric architecture (HHEA). This paper compares the performance of the HHEA PTO against two other PTO designs: 1) a baseline PTO consisting of a system of rectifying check valves and accumulators, and 2) a PTO consisting of an electro-hydraulic actuator (EHA). The HHEA PTO is shown to produce much more power than the check valve PTO and the EHA PTO. Also, the required electric generator sizes for the HHEA are smaller than that of the EHA PTO. The reduced size of these components allows for a WEC which is less expensive to manufacture.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Microbial Community and Functional Potential in the Midland Basin Reveal a Community Dominated by Both Thiosulfate and Sulfate-Reducing Microorganisms

The Permian Basin is the highest producing oil and gas reservoir in the United States. Hydrocarbon resources in this region are often accessed by unconventional extraction methods, including horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Despite the importance of the Permian Basin, there is no publicly available microbiological data from this region. We completed an analysis of Permian produced water samples to understand the dynamics present in hydraulically fractured wells in this region. We analyzed produced water samples taken from 10 wells in the Permian region of the Midland Basin using geochemical measurements, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and metagenomic sequencing. Compared to other regions, we found that Permian Basin produced water was characterized by higher sulfate and lower total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations, with a median of 1,110 mg/L and 107,000 mg/L. Additionally, geochemical measurements revealed the presence of frac hits, or interwell communication events where an established well is affected by the pumping of fracturing fluid into a new well. The occurrence of frac hits was supported by correlations between the microbiome and the geochemical parameters. Our 16S rRNA gene sequencing identified a produced water microbiome characterized by anaerobic, halophilic, and sulfur reducing taxa. Interestingly, sulfate and thiosulfate reducing taxa including Halanaerobium, Orenia, Marinobacter, and Desulfohalobium were the most prevalent microbiota in most wells. We further investigated the metabolic potential of microorganisms in the Permian Basin with metagenomic sequencing. We recovered 15 metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) from seven different samples representing 6 unique well sites. These MAGs corroborated the high presence of sulfate and thiosulfate reducing genes across all wells, especially from key taxa including Halanaerobium and Orenia. The observed microbiome composition and metabolic capabilities in conjunction with the high sulfate concentrations demonstrate a high potential for hydrogen sulfide production in the Permian Basin. Additionally, evidence of frac hits suggests the possibility for the exchange of microbial cells and/or genetic information between wells. This exchange would increase the likelihood of hydrogen sulfide production and has implications for the oil and gas industry.

16S RNA↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulation of Cross-Border Renewable Energy Trading in South Asia [Slides]

India's national renewable energy zones for wind power and solar photovoltaics (PV) could become regional green power resources if South Asian countries liberalize their rules for cross-border energy trading (CBET). Similarly, Nepal's wealth of hydropower could be more valuable to Nepal and its neighbors with greater market integration. These are the findings of a study by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that tested trading scenarios for wind power, solar power, and hydropower among Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. The NREL study found that wheeling power through India's interstate transmission system (ISTS) could be just as efficient operationally as building new high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines from the renewable energy zones directly to the importing country. This means that CBET integration could substitute for new long-distance HVDC transmission - which could cost billions of dollars - while delivering to all participating countries the same benefits for renewable energy development and decarbonization.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cross-Border Electricity Trading and Renewable Energy Zones

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Foster Dam Juvenile Fish Passage, 2018 (Final Report)

This report presents the results of a fish passage study conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (USACE) at Foster Dam (herein, Foster) during the spring (March–June) and fall (October–December) of 2018. The goal of this study was to provide biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decision-makers with information about passage of juvenile Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead (or appropriate surrogates) through specific routes at Foster. The results of this study are intended to help facilitate decision-making regarding long-term measures for enhancing salmonid passage at Foster. Radio telemetry (RT) methods were instituted at low winter reservoir forebay elevation (low pool, 613 ft mean sea level (msl); spring 2018 and fall 2018) and high summer reservoir forebay elevation (high pool, 635 ft msl; late spring and early summer 2018) to accomplish the following objectives: I. Estimate the following passage metrics under typical operations (i.e., baseline conditions): a. Overall dam-passage survival and survival specific to each route of dam passage, calculated using two different methods: i. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) estimate: Probability of survival from dam passage to detection at the Primary Array, 19 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of Foster. ii. Virtual Release/Dead Fish Correction (ViRDCt) estimate: Corrects the bias that occurs from misidentifying fish that did not survive dam-passage as alive at the tailrace Egress Array, allowing an estimate of survival from dam passage to this array, 2.5 rkm downstream of Foster. b. Route distribution (passage proportions by route; also known as “passage efficiencies”). c. Efficiency metrics i. Dam-passage efficiency (DPE), the proportion of total fish passing the dam relative to the number of total fish detected in the near forebay of the dam and therefore available to pass. ii. Fish passage efficiency (FPE), the proportion of fish passing via a non-turbine route, relative to the number of total fish in the near forebay and available to pass. iii. Fish weir efficiency (FWE) and spill bay efficiency (SBE), the proportion of fish passing the weir or spill bays, respectively, relative to the total number of fish passing the dam. d. Reservoir residency time (time elapsed between release into reservoir and dam passage) and travel times through the system. II. Estimate efficiency and effectiveness of the new fish weir, compared to the turbines and the spillway. III. Under alternative operations, compare passage through each route (turbines, weir, spillway) using a block/treatment (on/off) design similar to the 2015 and 2016 studies. IV. Estimate efficiency of the new fish weir operating at a low level of discharge (< 500 cfs) and a high level of discharge (= 500 cfs), as well as dam passage survival at each weir discharge level. V. Evaluate survival and behavior of hatchery summer steelhead to wild surrogate winter steelhead for potential use of summer steelhead as a surrogate species winter steelhead. VI. Evaluate juvenile passage rates in the auxiliary water supply (AWS), forebay water supply (FWS), and hatchery water supply (HWS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

PopGNN: Graph Neural Network-Based Flexible Future Population Forecasting Model

Accurate population forecasts is important to plan critical infrastructure and services, from housing and education to healthcare and transport. However, traditional population prediction studies have only employed traditional machine learning models limited to capture complex spatial interdependencies and patterns. Althogh recently computer vision-based framework was introduced with with promising accuracy, it has critical limitations for real-world planning applications: it function only at fixed spatial resolutions, restricting their use in diverse boundaries such as census tracts, neighborhoods, or administrative zones. Therefore, this study suggests a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based population prediction framework, called PopGNN. This model recorded remarkable performance compared with state-of-the-art models and traditional baseline models in the grid and administrative boundaries. Furthermore, our framework achieved comparable predictive accuracy to a computer vision-based model in both the South Korea and Tennessee case studies. Consequently, this study is valuable in that a single model can provide accurate population forecasts that address diverse planning demands, ranging from granular grid-level estimates for precise service allocation and facility location planning to aggregate administrative-level forecasts for macro-scale regional policy and resource distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of Howard A. Hanson Dam Juvenile Fish Passage and Survival Study Live Fish Injury Assessment, Sensor Fish, and BioPA Modeling Tasks

The live fish injury assessment, Sensor Fish, and BioPA modeling study tasks were conducted by researchers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The four tasks were part of the larger Evaluation of Howard A. Hanson Dam (HAHD) Juvenile Fish Passage and Survival study, which had six total tasks. To achieve study objectives for each of the four tasks, field work occurred at Green Peter Dam (GPR) to evaluate the highest elevation steep slope bypass pipe, at HAHD to evaluate baseline conditions of the horseshoe tunnel, and at PNNL’s Aquatic Research Laboratory (ARL) to evaluate simulated dam passage conditions (i.e., shear forces and collision). Each of these evaluations utilized live fish injury assessment, Sensor Fish, and BioPA modeling. Live fish injury assessment and survival (tagged with and without balloon or passive integrated transponder [PIT] tags) was correlated with Sensor Fish to determine thresholds. The CFD analyses were then performed, and the computed values were compared to the corresponding measured values of Sensor Fish data. The results of the overall injury and survival of fish was also used in the validation of the CFD modeling method. Collectively, the results will aid in future modeling of fish passage at HAHD. Results from these tasks can be used by biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decision-makers to inform baseline conditions under current operations and the engineering design of the new FPF at HAHD. This draft report contains initial data and results from the four tasks. Table 8 1, Table 8 2, and Table 8 3, and Figure 8 1, Figure 8 2, and Figure 8 3 depict the CFD modeling findings for the GPR steep slope bypass, HAHD horseshoe tunnel, and laboratory testing. Table 8 4, Table 8 5, and Table 8 6 depict the Sensor Fish findings for the GPR steep slope bypass and HAHD horseshoe tunnel testing. The Mv values observed in the HAHD were significantly lower compared to the laboratory experiments conducted at PNNL. Currently, investigations are underway to understand the reasons for this disparity and to establish an appropriate threshold value for Mv. Survival predictions presented in the tables below should be considered preliminary and should not be used until further analyses and adjustments are completed. The next steps for modeling will include the flow regime, (i.e., density of flow regimes due to water and air mixing ) to continue to improve on the threshold value for Mv.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Howard A. Hanson Dam Juvenile Fish Passage and Survival Study: Downstream Passage and Survival (Acoustic Telemetry) (Task Final Report)

The Downstream Passage and Survival (Acoustic Telemetry) task was one of several tasks for the Evaluation of Howard A. Hanson Dam (HAHD) Juvenile Fish Passage and Survival study. For this task, a juvenile fish passage and survival study was conducted at HAHD from March 10, 2024 through June 27, 2024 for arrays in the HAHD Reservoir and Green River, and through July 9, 2024 for the arrays in the Duwamish River. Fish releases occurred over four times from March through May. Active tag (acoustic telemetry) technology was used to provide biological baseline information for the passage and survival of juvenile Puget Sound (PS) Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Results will be used by biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decision-makers to inform the engineering design of the new fish passage facility (FPF) at HAHD. However, hatchery sub-yearling PS Chinook salmon of the appropriate size for tag implantation during the study period (> 95 mm in fork length, Geist et al. 2018) were unavailable. Therefore, yearling Coho salmon (O. kisutch) were used as a surrogate species for this acoustic telemetry study.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

NorthWest Cleantech Innovation Network

To help overcome these barriers for clean tech/climate tech entrepreneurs in the Pacific Northwest, the Northwest Cleantech Innovation Network (NWCIN) was established in October 2021 with support from the Department of Energy. Launched as a consortium of three organizations: VertueLab, the CleanTech Alliance (CTA) and University of Washington Clean Energy Testbeds (WCET), the NWCIN successfully leveraged the strengths and expertise of each organization to deliver four assistance programs: Cascadia Cleantech Accelerator (CCA), an 18-week yearly cohort-based virtual program providing business and technical mentorship Lab2Launch (L2L), a program to educate and connect entrepreneurs to regional research institution resources and technologies available to license Federal Funding Assistance (FFA), to provide support to companies from Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Alaska that are applying for SBIR/STTR and other federal grants Cleantech Hardware Innovation Prototyping (CHIP) to provide access to facilities and lab/office space at the Washington

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geochemistry and Microbiology Predict Environmental Niches with Conditions Favoring Potential Microbial Activity in the Bakken Shale

The Bakken Shale and underlying Three Forks Formation is an important oil and gas reservoir in the United States. The hydrocarbon resources in this region are accessible using unconventional oil and gas extraction methods, including horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. However, the geochemistry and microbiology of this region are not well understood, although they are known to have major implications for productivity and water management. In this study, we analyzed the produced water from 14 unconventional wells in the Bakken Shale using geochemical measurements, quantitative PCR (qPCR), and 16S rRNA gene sequencing with the overall goal of understanding the complex dynamics present in hydraulically fractured wells. Bakken Shale produced waters from this study exhibit high measurements of total dissolved solids (TDS). These conditions inhibit microbial growth, such that all samples had low microbial loads except for one sample (well 11), which had higher 16S rRNA gene copies. Our produced water samples had elevated chloride concentrations typical of other Bakken waters. However, they also contained a sulfate concentration trend that suggested higher occurrence of sulfate reduction, especially in wells 11 and 18. The unique geochemistry and microbial loads recorded for wells 11 and 18 suggest that the heterogeneous nature of the producing formation can provide environmental niches with conditions conducive for microbial growth. This was supported by strong correlations between the produced water microbial community and the associated geochemical parameters including sodium, chloride, and sulfate concentrations. The produced water microbial community was dominated by 19 bacterial families, all of which have previously been associated with hydrocarbon-reservoirs. These families include Halanaerobiaceae, Pseudomonadaceae, and Desulfohalobiaceae which are often associated with thiosulfate reduction, biofilm production, and sulfate reduction, respectively. Notably, well 11 was dominated by sulfate reducers. Our findings expand the current understanding of microbial life in oil and gas related environments, provide new insights into how the unique produced water conditions shape microbial communities, and demonstrate thatproduced water chemistry is tightly linked with microbiota in the Bakken Shale. Finally, our study shows that additional research efforts are necessary to understand this ecosystem and highlights the need for work in other unconventional reservoirs.

Tinker, Kara↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pillars of Innovation Across Southeast Idaho & the Interstate-15 Corridor

Since 1949, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been home to developing civilian and defense nuclear reactor technologies and managing spent nuclear fuel. Today, INL is the nation’s nuclear energy research laboratory, sustaining the safe and efficient operation of existing reactors, powering science in space, and breaking ground on the future fleet of advanced nuclear reactors. INL is only one of many rising technology resources in the region, however. Along the Interstate 15 (I-15) corridor, technology and cybersecurity industries and intellectual assets are rapidly expanding. Creating an innovation hub in this region would unite capabilities to solve current and future challenges in nuclear reactor sustainment and expanded deployment, integrated fuel cycle solutions, integrated energy systems, advanced materials and manufacturing for extreme environments, and secure and resilient cyber-physical systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Overview of Mesoscale Convective Systems: Global Climatology, Satellite Observations, and Modeling Strategies

Deep convection is responsible for redistributing water as well as energy and providing vital water resources for many regions of the world. Cumulonimbus clouds aggregation into a single storm system develop mesoscale convective systems (MCS). MCSs have precipitation covering a horizontal region on the scale of 100?km or more. After more than the last seven decades, MCS has been gradually received wide attention in the scientific community as an important component of the Earth's hydrologic cycle and energy balance. MCSs differ from ordinary deep convection because of the mesoscale circulations consisting of a layer of air overturning on a scale much larger than those created by individual convective updrafts or downdrafts. Moreover, a key feature that separates MCS from ordinary deep convection is the significant portion of stratiform precipitation that results in the production and detrainment of a large number of ice particles from their organized convective cores and continues the mesoscale ascent that supports ice growth and aggregation as the crystals fall. This significant stratiform precipitation gives rise to top-heavy latent heating profiles that have substantial impacts on the upper-level global circulations, especially for those MCS that have a larger portion of stratiform rainfall. Top-heavy latent heating profiles are more frequent over the ocean than over the land. These unique features of MCS suggest that they are important for the hydrologic cycle, general circulation, and radiative balance of the climate system. In this chapter, we focus on the recent advances in the climatological perspective of MCS as well as the research tools used to better understand MCS after the advent of the satellite era. We will discuss both tropical and midlatitude MCS, the influence of modes of tropical climate variability on MCS, and the new insight from satellite observations on MCS interaction with the land surface.

Chakraborty, Sudip↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rare Earth Elements (REE) and Critical Minerals (CM) in Middle Pennsylvanian-Age Coals and Associated Sediments in the Central Appalachian Basin, Eastern U.S.A.

The Central Appalachian Basin (CAB) of Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia and Virginia has a long history of coal mining and oil and gas extraction that has empowered the regional and national economies, the development of infrastructure, and a highly trained energy resources work force. As our societal demands for advanced technologies have rapidly increased in recent years, coal-related materials are viewed as an important new unconventional domestic source of critical minerals (CM) that are required for telecommunications, aerospace and transportation industries, electronics, the transition to low-carbon emissions energy production, and many consumer products. Coal-related materials encompass coal, associated sediments, coal mining waste materials, produced waters, and ash residues from coal-fired power plants. An important objective of the Evolve Central Appalachia Project (Evolve CAPP), sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is to assess the quantity and distribution of CM resources in the CAB region. The rare earth elements (REE) are considered highest priority, although other important CM such as niobium, gallium, and zirconium are known to occur in the Middle Pennsylvanian-age coals and sediments. Working with coal industry partners who provided access to drill cores, coal-related sediments and waste materials, over 600 samples have been collected for laboratory analysis, and over 730 materials have been scanned using portable x-ray fluorescence (pXRF) equipment. The application of pXRF provides the means for real-time semiquantitative analysis of CM content at very close spacings (typically 2-3 inch intervals) along drill core and in-situ channel samples that span the roof, coal seam, and floor rock. The comparison of pXRF geochemical data with laboratory results, geologic data, and downhole spectral gamma logs can provide high resolution input to lithologic and depositional models for future CM resource evaluations. The preliminary findings show that pXRF is capable of accurately measuring low concentrations of many of the CM with a high level of confidence (Ba, Cr, Ga, K, Nb, Rb, Sr, Th, Y), whereas for others (La, Ce, Co, Mn, Nd, Ni, Sc, Ti, V) the detection limits are very high or spectral interferences increase the uncertainty. Notably, the mean abundances of Y (34 ppm), La (86 ppm), Ga (40 ppm), and V (146 ppm) in coal underclays in the CAB region are up to 7X enriched compared with the overlying coal. These values also exceed the reported concentrations in published reference materials for upper continental crustal rocks (Rudnick and Gao, 2003), North American Shale Composite (Gromet et al., 1984), and North American coal (Finkelman, 1993). The pXRF data are in part verified by laboratory results that indicate the mean Y abundance (36 ppm) is highly correlated (R2 = 0.807) with total REE (ΣREE). The correlation is even higher (R2 = 0.957) with heavy REE (ΣHREE). Applying these correlations to the pXRF data for the coal underclays, the mean estimated values for ΣREE+Y and ΣHREE+Y are 270 ppm and 58 ppm, respectively. Although these average values are not considered high, the range of Y measured by pXRF in the coal underclays extended as high as 114 ppm, which would suggest ΣREE+Y equal to 847 ppm. The mean abundances of Zr (192 ppm) and Th (21 ppm) in coal underclays are also enriched compared with the overlying coal and these results likely reflect the presence of resistant detrital heavy minerals such as monazite, xenotime, and zircon in the underclay matrix. Several of the profiled coal seams and associated wall rocks contained thin volcanic ash layers up to 4-5 inches in thickness. The extent to which these ash fall layers provided a source for CM under the paleoenvironmental conditions that resulted in coal deposits in the CAB remains to be fully studied. Continuing investigations in the Evolve CAPP study area will include laboratory determinations of mineralogic and clay compositions, and evaluations of CM geochemical mobility in the coal and coal underclays.

Lassetter, Billy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas

Regional hydroclimatic variability and change can affect water resources and hydropower generation. It is essential to assess hydropower potential under current and future climatic conditions to inform the design and operation of hydropower infrastructures. Here, we employ an integrated modeling framework to assess the impact of projected hydroclimatic conditions on water resource systems and hydropower generation. The integrated framework samples climate model outputs under different scenarios to force a hydrologic model and produces streamflow projections. The projected streamflows are inputs for the future hydropower potential assessment. We implement the framework in the central Himalayan river basin. Our results demonstrate substantial spatiotemporal variability in different water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water yield) under current and future climatic conditions. For the Himalayan Tila river basin, the annual average energy production is expected to increase under future hydroclimatic conditions (up to 39% in Tila-2 hydropower project, suggested by ensemble mean). Furthermore, this increase in energy is driven mainly by the increased streamflow projections, particularly during the dry season and in the late century. Our results highlight the impacts of hydroclimatic variability in hydropower productions and are of practical use to provide decision-relevant information for designing and operating hydropower infrastructures. The integrated modeling framework presented here is region-specific; however, the approach is reproducible, and the overall insights are generalizable across the Himalayan region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗