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NASA NTRS2014

Data Used in Quantified Reliability Models

Data is the crux to developing quantitative risk and reliability models, without the data there is no quantification. The means to find and identify reliability data or failure numbers to quantify fault tree models during conceptual and design phases is often the quagmire that precludes early decision makers consideration of potential risk drivers that will influence design. The analyst tasked with addressing a system or product reliability depends on the availability of data. But, where is does that data come from and what does it really apply to? Commercial industries, government agencies, and other international sources might have available data similar to what you are looking for. In general, internal and external technical reports and data based on similar and dissimilar equipment is often the first and only place checked. A common philosophy is "I have a number - that is good enough". But, is it? Have you ever considered the difference in reported data from various federal datasets and technical reports when compared to similar sources from national and/or international datasets? Just how well does your data compare? Understanding how the reported data was derived, and interpreting the information and details associated with the data is as important as the data itself.

DeMott, Diana↗

NASA NTRS2020

Burning Embers: Towards More Transparent and Robust Climate-change Risk Assessments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate-change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. These burning embers use colour transitions to show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of global mean temperature. In this Review, we outline the history and evolution of the burning embers and associated reasons for concern framework, focusing on the methodological approaches and advances. While the assessment framework and figure design have been broadly retained over time, refinements in methodology have occurred, including the consideration of different risks, use of confidence statements, more formalized protocols and standardized metrics. Comparison across reports reveals that the risk level at a given temperature has generally increased with each assessment cycle, reflecting accumulating scientific evidence. For future assessments, an explicit, transparent and systematic process of expert elicitation is needed to enhance comparability, quality and credibility of burning embers.

burning embers diagram↗

NASA NTRS1982

Private financing and operation of a space station: Investment requirements, risk, government support and other primary business management considerations

Private investment in a manned space station is considered as an alternative to complete government sponsorship of such a program. The implications of manned space operations are discussed from a business perspective. The most significant problems and risks which would be faced by a private company involved in a space station enterprise are outlined and possible government roles in helping to overcome these difficulties suggested. Economic factors such as inflation and the rate of interest are of primary concern, but less obvious conditions such as antitrust and appropriate regulatory laws, government appropriations for space activities, and national security are also considered.

Simon, M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Smart Camera System for Aircraft and Spacecraft

This paper describes a new approach to situation awareness that combines video sensor technology and synthetic vision technology in a unique fashion to create a hybrid vision system. Our implementation of the technology, called "SmartCam3D" (SC3D) has been flight tested by both NASA and the Department of Defense with excellent results. This paper details its development and flight test results. Windshields and windows add considerable weight and risk to vehicle design, and because of this, many future vehicles will employ a windowless cockpit design. This windowless cockpit design philosophy prompted us to look at what would be required to develop a system that provides crewmembers and awareness. The system created to date provides a real-time operations personnel an appropriate level of situation 3D perspective display that can be used during all-weather and visibility conditions. While the advantages of a synthetic vision only system are considerable, the major disadvantage of such a system is that it displays the synthetic scene created using "static" data acquired by an aircraft or satellite at some point in the past. The SC3D system we are presenting in this paper is a hybrid synthetic vision system that fuses live video stream information with a computer generated synthetic scene. This hybrid system can display a dynamic, real-time scene of a region of interest, enriched by information from a synthetic environment system, see figure 1. The SC3D system has been flight tested on several X-38 flight tests performed over the last several years and on an ARMY Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) ground control station earlier this year. Additional testing using an assortment of UAV ground control stations and UAV simulators from the Army and Air Force will be conducted later this year.

Delgado, Frank↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spaceflight Medical Evacuation Risk Assessment Principles - A Qualitative Investigation

BACKGROUND Future human space exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will require innovative solutions in many areas, primarily those that provide direct medical support to crew on long-duration missions and optimize their health and performance. The associated challenges therein will be numerous, including but not necessarily limited to extended one-way or "asynchronous" communication delays, minimal to non-existent resupply, and a prolonged transit time to "definitive care" ranging from 3-days to 9-months. At the same time, long-duration exploration spacecraft and crew will face restrictions on mass, power, volume, and data far more significant than that seen in current LEO settings. Given these limitations, medical risk assessment is of primary importance, especially evaluating the implications of a medical evacuation of an ill or injured crewmember. Such evacuations are complicated, potentially dangerous, and well may be impossible in certain phases of the mission. Regardless, such issues must be weighed against the risks of the injured crew remaining aboard a spacecraft with limited medical resources. OBJECTIVE This qualitative study drew from the experiences of subject matter experts (SMEs) in spaceflight and appropriate analog environments (i.e., military, disaster, and extreme environment fields) to identify unique principles common amongst medical evacuation considerations helpful in informing future risk assessment tools. Appropriate analog environments included austere operational settings where multiple factors (weather, logistics/limited resupply, denied/extreme environments, and patient condition) resulted in a limited ability to provide definitive local medical care. The fundamental principles in question revolved around scenarios where evacuation became a complicating yet necessary consideration and where life-threatening medical concerns had to be weighed against critical mission objective(s). The primary authors collected semi-structured data gathered through in-depth interviews with 16 subject matter experts (SMEs). Interview questions investigated how these SMEs consider and weigh the attendant risks present in medical evacuation scenarios. Among the critical questions posed were those that sought to understand how the SME balanced the challenges and requirements of medical evacuation (or keeping an injured patient "on-site" aka: "prolonged field care") against the evacuation operation's risks on impacting overarching mission success. The team analyzed interview transcripts for common themes and principles using the qualitative methods of thematic analysis based on consensus, co-occurrence, and comparison. As a result, nine primary risk consideration themes and nine contributing factor themes emerged, all of which will ideally inform future medical evacuation decision-making tools and operational decision-making for exploration class missions. Specific aims for this study included: 1. Identification of common principles used to assess risks and benefits of medical evacuations in extreme environments 2. Identification of common points of friction or complication and challenges in extreme environment evacuations

A T Almand↗

NASA NTRS1986

Radiation protection guidelines for space missions

NASA's current radiation protection guidelines date from 1970, when the career limit was set at 400 rem. Today, using the same approach, but with the current risk estimates, a considerably lower career limit would obtain. Also, there is considerably more information about the radiation environments to be experienced in different missions than previously. Since 1970 women have joined the ranks. For these and other reasons it was necessary to reexamine the radiation protection guidelines. This task was undertaken by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements Scientific Committee 75 (NCRP SC 75). Below the magnetosphere the radiation environment varies with altitude and orbit inclination. In outer space missions galactic cosmic rays, with the small but important heavy ion component, determine the radiation environment. The new recommendations for career dose limits, based on lifetime excess risk of cancer mortality, take into account age at first exposure and sex. The career limits range from 100 rem (4.0Sv) for a 24 year old female to 400 rem for a 55 year old male compared to the previous single limit of 400 rem (4.0 Sv). The career limit for the lens of the eye was reduced from 600 to 400 rem (6.0 to 4.0 Sv.)

Fry, R. J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Radiation protection guidelines for space missions

The current radiation protection guidelines of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) were recommended in 1970. The career limit was set at 4.0 Sv (400 rem). Using the same approach as in 1970 but current risk estimates, a considerably lower career limit would obtain today. Also, there is now much more information about the radiation environments that will be experienced in different missions. Furthermore, since 1970 women have joined the ranks of the astronauts. For these and other reasons, it was considered necessary to re-examine the radiation protection guidelines. This task has been undertaken by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements Scientific Committee 75. Within the magnetosphere, the radiation environment varies with altitude and inclination of the orbit. In outer space missions, galactic cosmic rays, with the small but important heavy-ion component, determine the radiation environment. The new recommendations for career dose limits, based on lifetime excess risk of cancer mortality, take into account age at first exposure and sex. The career limits range from 1.0 Sv (100 rem) for a 24-y-old female up to 4.0 Sv (400 rem) for a 55-y-old male, compared with the previous single limit of 4.0 Sv (400 rem). The career limit for the lens of the eye has been reduced from 6.0 Sv (600 rem) to 4.0 Sv (400 rem).

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS1995

Aeronautical Satellite Data Link System (SDLS) for high-density air-traffic areas

The European Space Agency has recently commissioned a study to investigate the feasibility of a low-cost aeronautical Satellite Data Link System (SDLS) to provide for the needs of Air Traffic Services, i.e. safety related communications over continental areas with high air-traffic density. This study is placed in today's context which sees the first generation of Aeronautical Mobile Satellite System (AMSS) being gradually but restrictively put into service in oceanic airspaces with low air-traffic density. This paper first discusses the case of ATS dedicated versus mixed (ATS and commercial) Comms service provision and identifies the specific ATS comms requirements context. Specific emphasis is put on the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) standardization framework for both the ATN (Aeronautical Telecommunication Network) and the SSR (Secondary Surveillance Radar) Mode S specific services. An architectural system and network design for a future SDLS is then proposed, such as to meet the ATS comms requirements within the realm of existing technologies. To minimize development risk and cost, consideration is given to re-use the ESA-developed Land Mobile Communication Technology, known as MSBN (Mobile Satellite Business Network) featuring distinct subnetworks. It is particularly suited to an ATM (Air Traffic Management) decentralized architecture made of independent ATC (Air Traffic Control) Centers. Finally the study follow-on phase is introduced, which is intended to cover system design and development leading to a demonstration program, as a first step towards proposals for international standardization and acceptance.

Alain Delrieu↗

NASA NTRS2008

Broadband Lidar Technique for Precision CO2 Measurement

Presented are preliminary experimental results, sensitivity measurements and discuss our new CO2 lidar system under development. The system is employing an erbium-doped fiber amplifier (EDFA), superluminescent light emitting diode (SLED) as a source and our previously developed Fabry-Perot interferometer subsystem as a detector part. Global measurement of carbon dioxide column with the aim of discovering and quantifying unknown sources and sinks has been a high priority for the last decade. The goal of Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission is to significantly enhance the understanding of the role of CO2 in the global carbon cycle. The National Academy of Sciences recommended in its decadal survey that NASA put in orbit a CO2 lidar to satisfy this long standing need. Existing passive sensors suffer from two shortcomings. Their measurement precision can be compromised by the path length uncertainties arising from scattering within the atmosphere. Also passive sensors using sunlight cannot observe the column at night. Both of these difficulties can be ameliorated by lidar techniques. Lidar systems present their own set of problems however. Temperature changes in the atmosphere alter the cross section for individual CO2 absorption features while the different atmospheric pressures encountered passing through the atmosphere broaden the absorption lines. Currently proposed lidars require multiple lasers operating at multiple wavelengths simultaneously in order to untangle these effects. The current goal is to develop an ultra precise, inexpensive new lidar system for precise column measurements of CO2 changes in the lower atmosphere that uses a Fabry-Perot interferometer based system as the detector portion of the instrument and replaces the narrow band laser commonly used in lidars with the newly available high power SLED as the source. This approach reduces the number of individual lasers used in the system from three or more to one - considerably reducing the risk of failure. It also tremendously reduces the requirement for wavelength stability in the source putting this responsibility instead on the Fabry-Perot subsystem.

Heaps, William S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Broad Bank Lidar for Precise Atmospheric CO2 Column Absorption Measurement from Space

Accurate global measurement of carbon dioxide column with the aim of discovering and quantifying unknown sources and sinks has been a high priority for the last decade. In order to uncover the "missing sink" that is responsible for the large discrepancies in the budget the critical precision for a measurement from space needs to be on the order of 1 ppm. To better understand the CO2 budget and to evaluate its impact on global warming the National Research Council (NRC) in its recent decadal survey report (NACP) to NASA recommended a laser based total CO2 mapping mission in the near future. That's the goal of Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission - to significantly enhance the understanding of the role of CO2 in the global carbon cycle. Our current goal is to develop an ultra precise, inexpensive new lidar system for column measurements of CO2 changes in the lower atmosphere that uses a Fabry-Perot interferometer based system as the detector portion of the instrument and replaces the narrow band laser commonly used in lidars with a high power broadband source. This approach reduces the number of individual lasers used in the system and considerably reduces the risk of failure. It also tremendously reduces the requirement for wavelength stability in the source putting this responsibility instead on the Fabry- Perot subsystem.

Georgieva, E. M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Sabatier Carbon Dioxide Reduction Assembly Development for Closed Loop Water Recovery

The Sabatier Carbon Dioxide Reduction System (CRA) offers water recovery on a long duration space mission to reduce water resupply. Currently, NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Hamilton Sundstrand Space Systems International, Inc. (HSSSI), and Southwest Research Institute (SWRI) are working together to develop a Sabatier CRA for the International Space Station (ISS). This effort is being funded by the Office of Biological and Physical Research (Code U)/Advanced Life Support program which is administered by NASA JSC. The Sabatier CRA is the next step in closing the oxygen life support loop on future space missions. The Sabatier reaction combines the waste carbon dioxide (recovered from crew metabolism) with waste hydrogen (a byproduct of electrolysis to produce oxygen) to produce water and methane (CH4). On ISS, the methane would be vented overboard, however the methane can be utilized for propulsion during a planetary exploration mission. Based on a crew size of 7-equivalent people, the Sabatier CRA can produce as much a 2000 lb/year water. Use of the Sabatier CRA will significantly reduce the amount of water that needs to be resupplied to the ISS on a yearly basis, at a tremendous cost saving to the program. Additionally, by recycling this additional water, the Sabatier CRA enables additional launch capacity for science experiments to be brought up to the ISS. The NASA/Industry team noted above has been working to reduce technical risks associated with the Sabatier CRA system. To date the technical risks have been considerably reduced, bringing the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) from TRL 4 to TRL 5/6. In doing so, the team has developed the system schematic, system models, control scheme, produced engineering development unit (EDU) hardware, performed limited integration testing of the EDU's and verified system modeling through testing. Additionally, the system schematic has been evaluated for failure modes and hazards and had a successful technical review by the NASA Safety Board. The current focus is now related to development of the water/methane phase separator, liquid sensor and CO2 compressor piston seal life. The overall goal of the current effort is to bring the system up to a TRL6 by the end of GFY04. Although the Sabatier CRA is not currently baselined for use on the ISS, its benefits are significant enough such that volume within the Oxygen Generation System rack has been reserved for future installation. The value of the water the CRA recover will allow NASA the additional crew time and payload needed to pursue its mission of scientific research.

Smith, Frederick↗

NASA NTRS2007

Cost-Efficient Storage of Cryogens

NASA's cryogenic infrastructure that supports launch vehicle operations and propulsion testing is reaching an age where major refurbishment will soon be required. Key elements of this infrastructure are the large double-walled cryogenic storage tanks used for both space vehicle launch operations and rocket propulsion testing at the various NASA field centers. Perlite powder has historically been the insulation material of choice for these large storage tank applications. New bulk-fill insulation materials, including glass bubbles and aerogel beads, have been shown to provide improved thermal and mechanical performance. A research testing program was conducted to investigate the thermal performance benefits as well as to identify operational considerations and associated risks associated with the application of these new materials in large cryogenic storage tanks. The program was divided into three main areas: material testing (thermal conductivity and physical characterization), tank demonstration testing (liquid nitrogen and liquid hydrogen), and system studies (thermal modeling, economic analysis, and insulation changeout). The results of this research work show that more energy-efficient insulation solutions are possible for large-scale cryogenic storage tanks worldwide and summarize the operational requirements that should be considered for these applications.

Fesmire, J. E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Exploration Oxygen Recovery Technology Options Using ESM and LSMAC

In preparation for long duration manned space flight, numerous technology development efforts are ongoing in the area of environmental control and life support (ECLS). In cooperation with international, industry, and academic partners, NASA seeks to leverage the International Space Station as a testbed for technologies targeted for Exploration-class missions. In recent years, Equivalent Systems Mass (ESM) analyses have been conducted to evaluate the relative breakeven points and to compare technologies as part of ECLS architectural trades. While these studies have provided important data pertaining to key engineering metrics, additional considerations are important to more fully understand the potential impacts and costs associated with selecting a specific architecture. A tool, called the Life Support Multi-Dimensional Assessment Criteria (LSMAC), was recently proposed by Sierra Nevada Corporation in an attempt to incorporate influences of these additional considerations including Maintainability, Risk Analysis, Technology Readiness Level, Radiation Impacts, Manufacturing Costs, Reliability, Human Factors, and Un-Crewed Operations. As a first step toward evaluating and implementing this tool, LSMAC was used to revisit the ISS oxygen recovery trade from the 1990’s wherein Sabatier was selected over Bosch technology. Second, the tool was used to compare oxygen recovery developmental technologies currently in work. The results of these studies as well as a comparison with standalone ESM analyses are reported. Further, a discussion of the potential application of the tool across the ECLS portfolio and its potential use in future technology selection for ISS flight demonstrations is provided.

Morgan B Abney↗

NASA NTRS2023

Technical Basis Related to the Posture of NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance for the Launch of Radioactive Material Other than Space Nuclear Systems: Volume 1–Overview of Analysis and Results

NASA has launched and reentered payloads containing radioactive material for over 50 years. The isotopes, their quantity, and their form have varied significantly. The handling of this material prior to its integration into the spacecraft at the launch Center (and after its return to Earth after flight, if applicable) falls under the purview of the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer, while after the radioactive material is integrated into the spacecraft at the launch Center, it falls under the purview of the Office of Safety and Mission Assurance’s (OSMA) Nuclear Flight Safety Program. Historically, OSMA concurrence was required for any launch or reentry involving radioactive material. However, OSMA recently revisited this posture due to changes in the Federal policy in this area, and the significant accrued experience. The current report represents the more quantitative study envisioned in the recent change in posture. More specifically, this document addresses the potential risks and other considerations associated with launching small quantities of radioactive material (below the level requiring the Federally-mandated process in National Security Presidential Memorandum- (NSPM-) 20, “Presidential Memorandum on Launch of Spacecraft Containing Space Nuclear Systems” (USG, 2019) to provide the technical basis for when such activities require OSMA concurrence versus notification, as it relates to nuclear flight safety.

Don Helton↗

NASA NTRS1986

Preliminary risk assessment for the Black Brant XII

In order to provide the scientific community, as well as NASA management, with a preview of typical safety restrictions for the proposed Black Brant XII sounding rocket, a risk assessment for a typical payload has been performed. This paper details the considerations which ensure minimal risk for projects managed by Wallops Flight Facility and the safety criteria required to conduct an operation. Specifically, three launch scenarios for the Black Brant XII have been considered. The first case assumes a test launch from Wallops, and the other two cases analyze typical scientific missions from Poker Flat Research Range.

Underwood, B. E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Prospective Architectures for Onboard vs Cloud-Based Decision Making for Unmanned Aerial Systems

This paper investigates propsective architectures for decision-making in unmanned aerial systems. When these unmanned vehicles operate in urban environments, there are several sources of uncertainty that affect their behavior, and decision-making algorithms need to be robust to account for these different sources of uncertainty. It is important to account for several risk-factors that affect the flight of these unmanned systems, and facilitate decision-making by taking into consideration these various risk-factors. In addition, there are several technical challenges related to autonomous flight of unmanned aerial systems; these challenges include sensing, obstacle detection, path planning and navigation, trajectory generation and selection, etc. Many of these activities require significant computational power and in many situations, all of these activities need to be performed in real-time. In order to efficiently integrate these activities, it is important to develop a systematic architecture that can facilitate real-time decision-making. Four prospective architectures are discussed in this paper; on one end of the spectrum, the first architecture considers all activities/computations being performed onboard the vehicle whereas on the other end of the spectrum, the fourth and final architecture considers all activities/computations being performed in the cloud, using a new service known as Prognostics as a Service that is being developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The four different architectures are compared, their advantages and disadvantages are explained and conclusions are presented.

Software engineering↗

NASA NTRS2012

Fabrication and Testing of CERMET Fuel Materials for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

A first generation Nuclear Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (NCPS) based on Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) is currently being developed for Advanced Space Exploration Systems. The overall goal of the project is to address critical NTP technology challenges and programmatic issues to establish confidence in the affordability and viability of NTP systems. The current technology roadmap for NTP identifies the development of a robust fuel form as a critical near term need. The lack of a qualified nuclear fuel is a significant technical risk that will require a considerable fraction of program resources to mitigate. Due to these risks and the cost for qualification, the development and selection of a primary fuel must begin prior to Authority to Proceed (ATP) for a specific mission. The fuel development is a progressive approach to incrementally reduce risk, converge the fuel materials, and mature the design and fabrication process of the fuel element. A key objective of the current project is to advance the maturity of CERMET fuels. The work includes fuel processing development and characterization, fuel specimen hot hydrogen screening, and prototypic fuel element testing. Early fuel materials development is critical to help validate requirements and fuel performance. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview and status of the work at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC).

Hickman, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2002

Radiation Effect on Human Tissue

Predicting the occurrence of human cancer following exposure of an epidemiologic population to any agent causing genetic damage is a difficult task. To an approximation, this is because the uncertainty of uniform exposure to the damaging agent, and the uncertainty of uniform processing of that damage within a complex set of biological variables, degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event within clinically normal individuals. This situation begs the need for alternate controlled experimental models that are predictive for the development of human cancer following exposures to agents causing genetic damage. Such models historically have not been of substantial proven value. It is more recently encouraging, however, that developments in molecular and cell biology have led to an expanded knowledge of human carcinogenesis, and of molecular markers associated with that process. It is therefore appropriate to consider new laboratory models developed to accomodate that expanded knowledge in order to assess the cancer risks associated with exposures to genotoxic agents. When ionizing radiation of space is the genotoxic agent, then a series of additional considerations for human cancer risk assessment must also be applied. These include the dose of radiation absorbed by tissue at different locations in the body, the quality of the absorbed radiation, the rate at which absorbed dose accumulates in tissue, the way in which absorbed dose is measured and calculated, and the alterations in incident radiation caused by shielding materials. It is clear that human cancer risk assessment for damage caused by ionizing radiation is a multidisciplinary responsibility, and that within this responsibility no single discipline can hold disproportionate sway if a risk assessment model of radiation-induced human cancer is to be developed that has proven value. Biomolecular and cellular markers from the work reported here are considered for use in assessing human cancer risk related to exposure to space radiation. This potential use must be integrated within the specified multidisciplinary context in order to create a new tool of molecular epidemiology that can hopefully then realistically assess this cancer risk.

Richmond, Robert C.↗