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At least 91 records · Page 5

Probabilistic Evaluation of Advanced Ceramic Matrix Composite Structures

The objective of this report is to summarize the deterministic and probabilistic structural evaluation results of two structures made with advanced ceramic composites (CMC): internally pressurized tube and uniformly loaded flange. The deterministic structural evaluation includes stress, displacement, and buckling analyses. It is carried out using the finite element code MHOST, developed for the 3-D inelastic analysis of structures that are made with advanced materials. The probabilistic evaluation is performed using the integrated probabilistic assessment of composite structures computer code IPACS. The affects of uncertainties in primitive variables related to the material, fabrication process, and loadings on the material property and structural response behavior are quantified. The primitive variables considered are: thermo-mechanical properties of fiber and matrix, fiber and void volume ratios, use temperature, and pressure. The probabilistic structural analysis and probabilistic strength results are used by IPACS to perform reliability and risk evaluation of the two structures. The results will show that the sensitivity information obtained for the two composite structures from the computational simulation can be used to alter the design process to meet desired service requirements. In addition to detailed probabilistic analysis of the two structures, the following were performed specifically on the CMC tube: (1) predicted the failure load and the buckling load, (2) performed coupled non-deterministic multi-disciplinary structural analysis, and (3) demonstrated that probabilistic sensitivities can be used to select a reduced set of design variables for optimization.

Abumeri, Galib H.↗

Decomposition-Based Failure Mode Identification Method for Risk-Free Design of Large Systems

When designing products, it is crucial to assure failure and risk-free operation in the intended operating environment. Failures are typically studied and eliminated as much as possible during the early stages of design. The few failures that go undetected result in unacceptable damage and losses in high-risk applications where public safety is of concern. Published NASA and NTSB accident reports point to a variety of components identified as sources of failures in the reported cases. In previous work, data from these reports were processed and placed in matrix form for all the system components and failure modes encountered, and then manipulated using matrix methods to determine similarities between the different components and failure modes. In this paper, these matrices are represented in the form of a linear combination of failures modes, mathematically formed using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) decomposition. The PCA decomposition results in a low-dimensionality representation of all failure modes and components of interest, represented in a transformed coordinate system. Such a representation opens the way for efficient pattern analysis and prediction of failure modes with highest potential risks on the final product, rather than making decisions based on the large space of component and failure mode data. The mathematics of the proposed method are explained first using a simple example problem. The method is then applied to component failure data gathered from helicopter, accident reports to demonstrate its potential.

Tumer, Irem Y.↗

Assessment of a Grade 91 Steel Forging and Seamless Pipe Section After 141,000-Hours of Operation in a Superheat Outlet Header

In this work, two unique heats of 9Cr creep strength enhanced ferritic (CSEF) steels extracted from a retired superheat outlet header after 141,000 hours of service were evaluated. These two CSEF steels were a forging manufactured to SA-182 F91 (F91) reducer and a seamless pipe produced to SA-335 P91 (P91) pipe. Their creep deformation and fracture behavior were assessed using a lever arm creep frame integrated with in-situ high-temperature digital image correlation (DIC) system. Critical metallurgical and microstructure factors, including composition, service damage, grain matrix degradation, precipitates, and inclusions were quantitatively characterized to link the performance of the two service aged F91 and P91 CSEF steels. The creep test results show the F91 and P91 steels exhibit a large variation in creep strength and creep ductility. The F91 steel fractured at 572 hours while P91 steel fractured at 1,901 hours when subjected to a test condition of 650 °C and 100 MPa. The nominal creep strains at fracture were 12.5% (F91) and 14.5% (P91), respectively. The high-resolution DIC strain measurements reveal the local creep strain in F91 was about 50% while the local creep strain in P91 was >80%. The characterization results show that the F91 steel possessed pre-existing creep damage from its time in service, a higher fraction of inclusions, and a faster matrix grain coarsening rate. These features contribute to the observed reduction in performance for the F91 steel. The context for these findings, and the importance of metallurgical risk in an integrated life management approach will be emphasized.

Wang, Yiyu↗

A Low Risk Strategy for the Exploration of Near-Earth Objects

The impetus for asteroid exploration is scientific, political, and pragmatic. The notion of sending human explorers to asteroids is not new. Piloted missions to these primitive bodies were first discussed in the 1960s, pairing Saturn V rockets with enhanced Apollo spacecraft to explore what were then called "Earth-approaching asteroids." Two decades ago, NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) also briefly examined the possibility of visiting these small celestial bodies. Most recently, the U.S. Human Space Flight Review Committee (the second Augustine Commission) suggested that near-Earth objects (NEOs) represent a target-rich environment for exploration via the "Flexible Path" option. However, prior to seriously considering human missions to NEOs, it has become clear that we currently lack a robust catalog of human accessible targets. The majority of the NEOs identified by a study team across several NASA centers as "human-accessible" are probably too small and have orbits that are too uncertain to consider mounting piloted expeditions to these small worlds. The first step in developing such a catalog is, therefore, to complete a space-based NEO survey. The resulting catalog of candidate NEOs would then be transformed into a matrix of opportunities for robotic and human missions for the next several decades. This initial step of a space-based NEO survey first is the linchpin to laying the foundation of a low-risk architecture to venture out and explore these primitive bodies. We suggest such a minimalist framework architecture from 1) extensive ground-based and precursor spacecraft investigations (while applying operational knowledge from science-driven robotic missions), 2) astronaut servicing of spacecraft operating at geosynchronous Earth orbit to retain essential skills and experience, and 3) applying the sum of these skills, knowledge and experience to piloted missions to NEOs.

Landis, Rob R.↗

Graphite fiber surface treatment to improve char retention and increase fiber clumping

Composites containing carbon and graphite fibers can release fibers into the atmosphere during a fire. This release can potentially cause failure in some types of electrical equipment. Reduced fiber dispersion during and after combustion will reduce risks. Epoxidized char forming systems were synthesized which will react with commercially available surface treated carbon fiber. Fibers modified with these char formers retained adhesion in a specific epoxy matrix resin. Small scale combustion testing indicates that using these char former modified fibers in laminates will help to reduce the dispersement of fibers resulting from exposure to fire without sacrificing resin to fiber adhesion.

Paul, J. T., Jr.↗

Informing the Space Launch System Booster Separation Initial CFD Run Matrix with Observed Parametric Sensitivity

It currently requires significant computational cost to simulate the flow physics of the booster separation event on the Space Launch System. This comes from the large parametric space in which the event occurs, as pre-separation flight conditions and separated booster core-relative trajectories can vary. Functionally removing the risk of core-booster collision mandates careful assessment of the fluid dynamics in terms of several trajectory parameters. However, simulating the entire trajectory envelope is computationally intractable given the high parametric dimension. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the resulting low-parametric-resolution aerodynamic booster separation database, a data-driven approach was developed to select which breakpoints should be studied by simulations and experiments and which should be relegated to a regression-based interpolation procedure. This technique works by simulating cases where the flow physics are most sensitive to changes in the parameters and leaving the less parametrically sensitive regions for interpolation. The result is a booster separation run matrix whose computational cost is comparable to that of previous database generations but has lower interpolation errors.

SLS↗

Informing the Space Launch System Booster Separation Initial CFD Run Matrix with Observed Parametric Sensitivity

It currently requires significant computational cost to simulate the flow physics of the booster separation event on the Space Launch System. This comes from the large parametric space in which the event occurs, as pre-separation flight conditions and separated booster core-relative trajectories can vary. Functionally removing the risk of core-booster collision mandates careful assessment of the fluid dynamics in terms of several trajectory parameters. However, simulating the entire trajectory envelope is computationally intractable given the high parametric dimension. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the resulting low-parametric-resolution aerodynamic booster separation database, a data-driven approach was developed to select which breakpoints should be studied by simulations and experiments and which should be relegated to a regression-based interpolation procedure. This technique works by simulating cases where the flow physics are most sensitive to changes in the parameters and leaving the less parametrically sensitive regions for interpolation. The result is a booster separation run matrix whose computational cost is comparable to that of previous database generations but has lower interpolation errors.

SLS↗

The Second European Service Module (ESM-2) Evolutions, Production and Challenges

This paper presents an overview of the Second European Service Module (ESM-2), the second in a series of European Service Modules produced as part of the Barter agreement between NASA and ESA for the Orion Program. The European Industrial consortium is led by the ESA prime contractor Airbus Defence and Space in Bremen. ESA and Airbus signed the ESM-2 contract on 16 February 2017, for this key element of the Orion Exploration Mission 2 (EM-2). EM-2 is the first crewed mission for Orion and will take astronauts farther into the solar system than humanity has ever travelled. EM-2 will also be a historic mission for Europe, as the ESM-2 will be the first European spacecraft to be part of a human transportation system carrying humans beyond low Earth orbit. ESM-2 is mainly a recurring production following ESM-1. Nevertheless, there are a number of important changes being implemented, for example, to incorporate upgrades to further enhance safety and reliability. The challenging delivery schedule for ESM-2 has driven the need to commence manufacturing prior to completion of the qualification on ESM-1. In addition, some requirement deviations and non-compliances approved for ESM-1 have resulted in modifications for ESM-2. In order to manage the competing constraints effectively, the ESM-2 Team has put in place a number of novel approaches to manage schedule, risk, and technical changes. Airbus has set up multi-functional teams according to an approach known as "Major Spacecraft Deliveries" consisting of quality assurance, engineering and procurement. The risk of starting manufacturing prior to qualification is managed through a special risk share agreement. This agreement necessitates rigorous risk reviews across the board for all manufacturing, assembly, integration and test milestones. The ESM-2 changes are managed by Configuration Management, but Airbus has also introduced the Technical Baseline Matrix to provide a transparent top-level overview of the changes from ESM-1 to ESM-2. The tool provides the basis for ESM-2 design and development needs, decisions, as well as the input for the Orion EM-2 Critical Design Review (CDR). The main technical evolutions, status of the production and the novel management approaches for ESM-2 are presented and discussed in the paper.

Orion European Service Module Programme↗

Wildfire Emergency Response Hazard Extraction and Analysis of Trends (HEAT) through Natural Language Processing and Time Series

A methodology for Hazard Extraction and Analysis of Trends (HEAT) is proposed and conducted on a data set of wildfire incident response forms, known as ICS-209-PLUS.The HEAT processes: (1) extract a set of hazards from a data set, (2) calculate hazard-relevant metrics in a primary analysis, (3) analyze trends over time in metrics using timeseries, and (4) examine potential explanations for metric trends using a secondary analysis. Hazards are extracted from narrative data in the ICS-209-PLUS based on a framework previously developed by the authors, using natural language processing. Metrics examined for each hazard include operational time to occurrence, rate of occurrence, frequency, and severity. Primary results include a taxonomy of hazards present in the data set with relevant quantitative metrics. The most frequent hazards identified are environmental and include hazardous terrain. Most hazards occur on average between 35-55% containment. Incidents with hazards tend to have a higher average severity score when compared to the average score for all incidents. Time series of the metrics and relevant predictors, including fire characteristics, fire intensity, and operations, are created to facilitate further analysis. Secondary results used to determine which factors best predict hazard frequency include a correlation matrix and regression analysis. These findings are relevant to safety for current, as well as emerging wildfire operations, and are an exploratory first step in developing historical data-driven risk assessment models.

Sequoia R. Andrade↗

Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc >= 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant.

Ghrist, Richard W.↗

ESAS-Derived Earth Departure Stage Design for Human Mars Exploration

The Vision for Space Exploration has set the nation on a course to have humans on Mars as early as 2030. To reduce the cost and risk associated with human Mars exploration, NASA is planning for the Mars architecture to leverage the lunar architecture as fully as possible. This study takes the defined launch vehicles and system capabilities from ESAS and extends their application to DRM 3.0 to design an Earth Departure Stage suitable for the cargo and crew missions to Mars. The impact of a propellant depot in LEO was assessed and sLzed for use with the EDS. To quantitatively assess and compare the effectiveness of alternative designs, an initial baseline architecture was defined using the ESAS launch vehicles and DRM 3.0. The baseline architecture uses three NTR engines, LH2 propellant, no propellant depot in LEO, and launches on the Ares I and Ares V. The Mars transfer and surface elements from DRM 3.0 were considered to be fixed payloads in the design of the EDS. Feasible architecture alternatives were identified from previous architecture studies and anticipated capabilities and compiled in a morphological matrix. ESAS FOMs were used to determine the most critical design attributes for the effectiveness of the EDS. The ESAS-derived FOMs used in this study to assess alternative designs are effectiveness and performance, affordability, reliability, and risk. The individual FOMs were prioritized using the AHP, a method for pairwise comparison. All trades performed were evaluated with respect to the weighted FOMs, creating a Pareto frontier of equivalently ideal solutions. Additionally, each design on the frontier was evaluated based on its fulfillment of the weighted FOMs using TOPSIS, a quantitative method for ordinal ranking of the alternatives. The designs were assessed in an integrated environment using physics-based models for subsystem analysis where possible. However, for certain attributes such as engine type, historical, performance-based mass estimating relations were more easily employed. The elements from the design process were integrated into a single loop, allowing for rapid iteration of subsystem analyses and compilation of resulting designs.

Flaherty, Kevin↗

Importance of Requirements Analysis & Traceability to Improve Software Quality and Reduce Cost and Risk

The goal of this paper is to emphasize the importance of developing complete and unambiguous requirements early in the project cycle (prior to Preliminary Design Phase). Having a complete set of requirements early in the project cycle allows sufficient time to generate a traceability matrix. Requirements traceability and analysis are the key elements in improving verification and validation process, and thus overall software quality. Traceability can be most beneficial when the system changes. If changes are made to high-level requirements it implies that low-level requirements need to be modified. Traceability ensures that requirements are appropriately and efficiently verified at various levels whereas analysis ensures that a rightly interpreted set of requirements is produced.

Kapoor, Manju M.↗

Extracellular signaling through the microenvironment: a hypothesis relating carcinogenesis, bystander effects, and genomic instability

Cell growth, differentiation and death are directed in large part by extracellular signaling through the interactions of cells with other cells and with the extracellular matrix; these interactions are in turn modulated by cytokines and growth factors, i.e. the microenvironment. Here we discuss the idea that extracellular signaling integrates multicellular damage responses that are important deterrents to the development of cancer through mechanisms that eliminate abnormal cells and inhibit neoplastic behavior. As an example, we discuss the action of transforming growth factor beta (TGFB1) as an extracellular sensor of damage. We propose that radiation-induced bystander effects and genomic instability are, respectively, positive and negative manifestations of this homeostatic process. Bystander effects exhibited predominantly after a low-dose or a nonhomogeneous radiation exposure are extracellular signaling pathways that modulate cellular repair and death programs. Persistent disruption of extracellular signaling after exposure to relatively high doses of ionizing radiation may lead to the accumulation of aberrant cells that are genomically unstable. Understanding radiation effects in terms of coordinated multicellular responses that affect decisions regarding the fate of a cell may necessitate re-evaluation of radiation dose and risk concepts and provide avenues for intervention.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Effect of spaceflight on the non-weight-bearing bones of rat skeleton

The effects of weightlessness on the integrated growth and remodeling of nonweight-bearing bones (the mandibles, teeth, and ribs) were studied. Rats prelabeled with tetracycline to mark the surfaces of bone and tooth formation were subjected to spaceflight conditions for 18.5 days, followed by further injections of tetracycline on days 6 and 29 postflight.Results show that spaceflight conditions did not alter the rate of periosteal bone formation in the ribs and regions of the mandibles covered by masticatory muscles, although bone formation-calcification rates were found to be impaired at those sites in the jaw that had no contiguous muscle (molar region). The remodeling activity on the alveolar bone around the buccal roots of the molar teeth was found to be significantly reduced. While total Ca, P, and hydroxyproline concentrations in the jaws, incisors, and ribs were normal after spaceflight, it was determined that weightless conditions caused a delay in the maturation of bone mineral and matrix in the jaws. These anomalies were found to be corrected by 29 days postflight. These results indicate that most of the nonweight-bearing bones of the rat skeleton are at risk to the effects of weightlessness.

Simmons, D. J.↗

Water-Based Pressure Sensitive Paint

Preparation and performance of a water-based pressure sensitive paint (PSP) is described. A water emulsion of an oxygen permeable polymer and a platinum porphyrin type luminescent compound were dispersed in a water matrix to produce a PSP that performs well without the use of volatile, toxic solvents. The primary advantages of this PSP are reduced contamination of wind tunnels in which it is used, lower health risk to its users, and easier cleanup and disposal. This also represents a cost reduction by eliminating the need for elaborate ventilation and user protection during application. The water-based PSP described has all the characteristics associated with water-based paints (low toxicity, very low volatile organic chemicals, and easy water cleanup) but also has high performance as a global pressure sensor for PSP measurements in wind tunnels. The use of a water-based PSP virtually eliminates the toxic fumes associated with the application of PSPs to a model in wind tunnels.

Oglesby, Donald M.↗

Identification and Evaluation of Integration and Cross Cutting Issues Across HRP Risks

The HRP Integrated Research Plan contains the research plans for the 32 risks requiring research to characterize and mitigate. These risks to human health and performance in spaceflight are identified by evidence and each one focuses on a single aspect of human physiology or performance. They are further categorized by aspects of the spaceflight environment, such as altered gravity or space radiation, that that play a major role in their likelihood and consequence. From its inception the "integrate" in the Research Plan has denoted the integrated nature of risks to human health and performance, the connectedness of physiological systems within the human body regardless of the spaceflight environment, and the integrated response of the human body to the spaceflight environment. Common characteristics of the spaceflight environment include altered gravity, atmospheres and light/dark cycles, space radiation, isolation, noise, and periods of high or low workload. Long term exposure to this unique environment produces a suite of physiological effects such as stress; vision, neurocognitive and anthropometric changes; circadian misalignment; fluid shifts, deconditioning; immune dysregulation; and altered nutritional requirements. Matrix diagraming was used to systematically identify, analyze and rate the many-to-many relationships between environmental characteristics and the suite of physiological effects. It was also to identify patterns in the relationships of common physiological effects to each other. Analyses of patterns or relationships in these diagrams help to identify issues that cut across multiple risks. Cross cutting issues benefit from a multidisciplinary approach that synthesizes concepts or data from two or more disciplines to identify and characterize risk factors or develop countermeasures relevant to multiple risks. They also help to illuminate possible problem areas that may arise when a countermeasure impacts risks other than those which it was developed to mitigate, or identify groupings of physiological changes that are likely to occur that may impact the overall risk posture.

Steinberg, S. L.↗