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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Peru Health and Air Quality II: Leveraging Earth Observations and Health Data to Map Outbreak Risk and Inform Public Health Interventions for Zoonotic Disease Prevention

Peru's Madre de Dios region is a hotspot for dengue fever and leishmaniasis due to its tropical Amazonian climate. Though treatable, these zoonotic diseases are debilitating for under-resourced communities whose already close proximity to mosquito and sandfly vectors continues to increase via rapid urbanization and deforestation. Peru’s Ministries of Health (MINSA) and Environment (MINAM) are working to better understand the environmental factors amplifying the risk of dengue fever and leishmaniasis transmission. The first term of this project classified the land use and land cover of Madre de Dios’ 11 districts for 2010, 2015, and 2020 and identified a correlation between both diseases and urbanization. Our team expanded this analysis by creating urban-forest edge maps and incorporating climatic and topographic variables with data from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). We determined these variables’ impacts on disease incidence by assessing existing literature and running regression models. Dengue fever correlated with urban-forest edge, urban area, slope, temperature, and precipitation. Leishmaniasis primarily correlated with forest-edge area and elevation, but lacking additional statistical significance prevented further work, a decision supported by the literature. Thus, the risk matrix and risk map which we scripted in R to visualize the risk of disease posed to districts alongside health post locations addresses only dengue fever. The results and products will inform MINSA and MINAM in public health interventions, resource distribution, and policy initiatives.

Jennifer Rogers↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA System Safety Handbook: System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation - Volume 1

System safety assessment is defined in NPR 8715.3C, NASA General Safety Program Requirements as a disciplined, systematic approach to the analysis of risks resulting from hazards that can affect humans, the environment, and mission assets. Achievement of the highest practicable degree of system safety is one of NASA's highest priorities. Traditionally, system safety assessment at NASA and elsewhere has focused on the application of a set of safety analysis tools to identify safety risks and formulate effective controls.1 Familiar tools used for this purpose include various forms of hazard analyses, failure modes and effects analyses, and probabilistic safety assessment (commonly also referred to as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)). In the past, it has been assumed that to show that a system is safe, it is sufficient to provide assurance that the process for identifying the hazards has been as comprehensive as possible and that each identified hazard has one or more associated controls. The NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has made several statements in its annual reports supporting a more holistic approach. In 2006, it recommended that "... a comprehensive risk assessment, communication and acceptance process be implemented to ensure that overall launch risk is considered in an integrated and consistent manner." In 2009, it advocated for "... a process for using a risk-informed design approach to produce a design that is optimally and sufficiently safe." As a rationale for the latter advocacy, it stated that "... the ASAP applauds switching to a performance-based approach because it emphasizes early risk identification to guide designs, thus enabling creative design approaches that might be more efficient, safer, or both." For purposes of this preface, it is worth mentioning three areas where the handbook emphasizes a more holistic type of thinking. First, the handbook takes the position that it is important to not just focus on risk on an individual basis but to consider measures of aggregate safety risk and to ensure wherever possible that there be quantitative measures for evaluating how effective the controls are in reducing these aggregate risks. The term aggregate risk, when used in this handbook, refers to the accumulation of risks from individual scenarios that lead to a shortfall in safety performance at a high level: e.g., an excessively high probability of loss of crew, loss of mission, planetary contamination, etc. Without aggregated quantitative measures such as these, it is not reasonable to expect that safety has been optimized with respect to other technical and programmatic objectives. At the same time, it is fully recognized that not all sources of risk are amenable to precise quantitative analysis and that the use of qualitative approaches and bounding estimates may be appropriate for those risk sources. Second, the handbook stresses the necessity of developing confidence that the controls derived for the purpose of achieving system safety not only handle risks that have been identified and properly characterized but also provide a general, more holistic means for protecting against unidentified or uncharacterized risks. For example, while it is not possible to be assured that all credible causes of risk have been identified, there are defenses that can provide protection against broad categories of risks and thereby increase the chances that individual causes are contained. Third, the handbook strives at all times to treat uncertainties as an integral aspect of risk and as a part of making decisions. The term "uncertainty" here does not refer to an actuarial type of data analysis, but rather to a characterization of our state of knowledge regarding results from logical and physical models that approximate reality. Uncertainty analysis finds how the output parameters of the models are related to plausible variations in the input parameters and in the modeling assumptions. The evaluation of unrtainties represents a method of probabilistic thinking wherein the analyst and decision makers recognize possible outcomes other than the outcome perceived to be "most likely." Without this type of analysis, it is not possible to determine the worth of an analysis product as a basis for making decisions related to safety and mission success. In line with these considerations the handbook does not take a hazard-analysis-centric approach to system safety. Hazard analysis remains a useful tool to facilitate brainstorming but does not substitute for a more holistic approach geared to a comprehensive identification and understanding of individual risk issues and their contributions to aggregate safety risks. The handbook strives to emphasize the importance of identifying the most critical scenarios that contribute to the risk of not meeting the agreed-upon safety objectives and requirements using all appropriate tools (including but not limited to hazard analysis). Thereafter, emphasis shifts to identifying the risk drivers that cause these scenarios to be critical and ensuring that there are controls directed toward preventing or mitigating the risk drivers. To address these and other areas, the handbook advocates a proactive, analytic-deliberative, risk-informed approach to system safety, enabling the integration of system safety activities with systems engineering and risk management processes. It emphasizes how one can systematically provide the necessary evidence to substantiate the claim that a system is safe to within an acceptable risk tolerance, and that safety has been achieved in a cost-effective manner. The methodology discussed in this handbook is part of a systems engineering process and is intended to be integral to the system safety practices being conducted by the NASA safety and mission assurance and systems engineering organizations. The handbook posits that to conclude that a system is adequately safe, it is necessary to consider a set of safety claims that derive from the safety objectives of the organization. The safety claims are developed from a hierarchy of safety objectives and are therefore hierarchical themselves. Assurance that all the claims are true within acceptable risk tolerance limits implies that all of the safety objectives have been satisfied, and therefore that the system is safe. The acceptable risk tolerance limits are provided by the authority who must make the decision whether or not to proceed to the next step in the life cycle. These tolerances are therefore referred to as the decision maker's risk tolerances. In general, the safety claims address two fundamental facets of safety: 1) whether required safety thresholds or goals have been achieved, and 2) whether the safety risk is as low as possible within reasonable impacts on cost, schedule, and performance. The latter facet includes consideration of controls that are collective in nature (i.e., apply generically to broad categories of risks) and thereby provide protection against unidentified or uncharacterized risks.

Dezfuli, Homayoon↗
NASA NTRS2016

Texas Disasters II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Assist the Texas Forest Service in Mapping and Analyzing Fuel Loads and Phenology in Texas Grasslands

The risk of severe wildfires in Texas has been related to weather phenomena such as climate change and recent urban expansion into wild land areas. During recent years, Texas wild land areas have experienced sequences of wet and dry years that have contributed to increased wildfire risk and frequency. To prevent and contain wildfires, the Texas Forest Service (TFS) is tasked with evaluating and reducing potential fire risk to better manage and distribute resources. This task is made more difficult due to the vast and varied landscape of Texas. The TFS assesses fire risk by understanding vegetative fuel types and fuel loads. To better assist the TFS, NASA Earth observations, including Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Specrtoradiometer (MODIS) data, were analyzed to produce maps of vegetation type and specific vegetation phenology as it related to potential wildfire fuel loads. Fuel maps from 2010-2011 and 2014-2015 fire seasons, created by the Texas Disasters I project, were used and provided alternating, complementary map indicators of wildfire risk in Texas. The TFS will utilize the end products and capabilities to evaluate and better understand wildfire risk across Texas.

Brooke, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2005

Bioastronautics Roadmap: A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Space Exploration

The Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap is the framework used to identify and assess the risks to crews exposed to the hazardous environments of space. It guides the implementation of research strategies to prevent or reduce those risks. Although the BCPR identifies steps that must be taken to reduce the risks to health and performance that are associated with human space flight, the BCPR is not a "critical path" analysis in the strict engineering sense. The BCPR will evolve to accommodate new information and technology development and will enable NASA to conduct a formal critical path analysis in the future. As a management tool, the BCPR provides information for making informed decisions about research priorities and resource allocation. The outcome-driven nature of the BCPR makes it amenable for assessing the focus, progress and success of the Bioastronautics research and technology program. The BCPR is also a tool for communicating program priorities and progress to the research community and NASA management.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2011

Risk Assessment Overview

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Prassinos, Peter G.↗
NASA NTRS2005

GO/NO-GO - When is medical hazard mitigation acceptable for launch?

Medical support of spaceflight missions is composed of complex tasks and decisions that dedicated to maintaining the health and performance of the crew and the completion of mission objectives. Spacecraft represent one of the most complex vehicles built by humans, and are built to very rigorous design specifications. In the course of a Flight Readiness Review (FRR) or a mission itself, the flight surgeon must be able to understand the impact of hazards and risks that may not be completely mitigated by design alone. Some hazards are not mitigated because they are never actually identified. When a hazard is identified, it must be reduced or waivered. Hazards that cannot be designed out of the vehicle or mission, are usually mitigated through other means to bring the residual risk to an acceptable level. This is possible in most engineered systems because failure modes are usually predictable and analysis can include taking these systems to failure. Medical support of space missions is complicated by the inability of flight surgeons to provide "exact" hazard and risk numbers to the NASA engineering community. Taking humans to failure is not an option. Furthermore, medical dogma is mostly comprised of "medical prevention" strategies that mitigate risk by examining the behaviour of a cohort of humans similar to astronauts. Unfortunately, this approach does not lend itself well for predicting the effect of a hazard in the unique environment of space. This presentation will discuss how Medical Operations uses an evidence-based approach to decide if hazard mitigation strategies are adequate to reduce mission risk to acceptable levels. Case studies to be discussed will include: 1. Risk of electrocution risk during EVA 2. Risk of cardiac event risk during long and short duration missions 3. Degraded cabin environmental monitoring on the ISS. Learning Objectives 1.) The audience will understand the challenges of mitigating medical risk caused by nominal and off-nominal mission events. 2.) The audience will understand the process by which medical hazards are identified and mitigated before launch. 3.) The audience will understand the roles and responsibilities of all the other flight control positions in participating in the process of reducing hazards and reducing medical risk to an acceptable level.

Hamilton, Douglas R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Land Cover Change Dynamics in the Peruvian Amazon to Map Outbreak Risk and Inform Public Health Interventions for Zoonotic Disease Prevention

Dengue fever and leishmaniasis are two tropical diseases prevalent in Madre de Dios Region of Peru and have been associated with urbanization and road construction. Rapid land use changes such as mining, timber harvesting, and hydroelectric dam development lead to denser human presence in previously sparsely-populated areas which increases the proximity of human settlements to zoonotic disease vectors. In partnership with the Peruvian Ministries of Health (MINSA), the Environment (MINAM), and other in-country collaborators, a NASA DEVELOP team examined Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes and reported dengue and leishmaniasis incidence in the Madre de Dios region. This sought to help MINSA and MINAM understand the spatial relationship between land use change and zoonotic disease incidence. We created a LULC classification script using Google Earth Engine (GEE) with Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery to classify land cover in 2010, 2015, and 2020 and evaluate changes over this time period. The team then compared the quantified results of the LULC assessment in conjunction with reported disease cases to evaluate disease incidence and key land cover changes across Madre de Dios’s 11 districts. Follow on work will use these products to develop more detailed outbreak risk maps. These products will allow MINSA, MINAM, and other partners to understand hotspots of land cover change in Peru and the relationship with outbreaks to inform public health decision makers and environmental policy.

Nataly Chacon-Buitrago↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Extravehicular Mobility Unit System-Level Model (SINDA EMU) Usage for Operational Mitigations in Support of US EVA 80

During United States Extravehicular Activity 80 (US EVA 80), water was observed in the helmet of an Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) during cabin repressurization. Through a comparative analysis and Test, Teardown, and Evaluation (TT&E) of this EMU, the most likely cause of the US EVA 80 water failure was determined to be sublimator carryover caused by a comparatively high latent load (water vapor production by the crewmember). High latent load can be reduced by the crewmember adjusting the thermal control valve (TCV) setting on the EMU to prevent the onset of significant sweating. To reduce the risk of high latent load leading to water in the helmet, a potential warning system was developed using the Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer EMU model (SINDA EMU). The goal of this warning system is to alert the crewmember when they are producing a high latent load and recommend adjustment of the TCV to increase cooling. This warning system was designed to ensure high risk conditions are avoided while simultaneously preventing a system that warns the crewmember too frequently. Theoretical tests of the warning system through modeling calculated that if the warning system were used during US EVA 80, the total latent load could have been reduced by up to 33% which would have significantly reduced the risk of water in the helmet. This analysis also investigated the effectiveness of the warning system on EVAs that occurred after US EVA 80.

Noah Andersen↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Risk-Informed Performance-Based Methodology to Manage Fire Protection Systems in Nuclear Facilities

Fire protection systems (FPSs) and features are installed in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hazard Category 1, 2, or 3 nuclear facilities to protect property (maximum possible fire loss thresholds), life, and nuclear safety (i.e., structures, systems, and components). These FPSs and features are designed and maintained in accordance with the prescriptive guidance provided in applicable building codes and National Fire Protection Association codes and standards. Management, operations, and maintenance activities of FPSs involve significant effort. A DOE facility’s documented safety analysis or other safety basis document could also rely on FPSs to provide either a safety significant or safety class function to mitigate fire hazards and minimize radiological consequences. In some cases, the designation of safety significant or safety class may be determined to provide a layer of defense-in-depth to minimize nuclear safety risks independent of the fire risk. DOE standards allow the use of performance-based design alternatives developed by the fire industry but do not consider the defense-in-depth layers of protection provided in DOE facilities to prevent or mitigate the risks associated with unintended release of radioactive materials into the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a decision-making methodology tailored for DOE non-reactor nuclear facilities to manage FPSs and features by integrating nuclear safety risk insights into a performance-based analysis. This risk-informed, performance-based (RIPB) methodology can be used to provide the technical basis for classifying an FPS as safety class and safety significant, tailoring administrative controls (e.g., technical safety requirements), and ranking the importance of FPSs to prioritize maintenance, upgrades, and replacement activities. The RIPB methodology is a graded approach to inform DOE facility owners and Fire Protection Program managers of the most risk-significant FPSs and equipment, and those systems would be cost-beneficial to relax rigor if there is a need to re-design the FPS coverage or deviate from DOE and National Fire Protection Association standards for those systems that would be less significant. This paper describes the framework used to develop the RIPB methodology and the outcome of implementing this methodology in a use-case nuclear facility. This paper also discusses the impact to DOE policies and standards and the safety margins and defense-in-depth measures credited in nuclear safety assessments in a facility’s documented safety analysis and the benefits of implementing an RIPB methodology in lieu of a prescriptive method to comply with fire protection requirements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Eco-Bio-Social Factors That Modulate Aedes aegypti Abundance in South Texas Border Communities

Aedes aegypti control requires dedicated resources that are usually scarce, limiting the reach and sustainability of vector control programs. This generates a need to focus on areas at risk of disease transmission and also understand the factors that might modulate local mosquito abundance. We evaluated the eco-bio-social factors that modulate indoor and outdoor relative abundance of female Ae. aegypti in communities of South Texas. We conducted housing quality and Knowledge Attitudes and Practices surveys in households that were part of a weekly mosquito surveillance program in November of 2017 and 2018. Our results showed widespread knowledge of mosquitoes and Zika virus by our participants. However, less than 35% considered them as serious problems in this region. The presence of window-mounted air conditioning units increased the risk of female mosquito relative abundance indoors. An increase in outdoor relative abundance was associated with larger properties and a higher number of children between 6 to 17 years of age. Interestingly, we observed that an increasing number of children <5 years of age modulated both indoor and outdoor relative abundance, with a 52% increase indoors and 30% decrease outdoors. The low perception of mosquito and disease risk highlights engagement needs for vector-borne disease prevention in this region. The identified risk factors can help guide public health officials in their efforts to reduce human and vector contact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Expected individual benefit of prophylactic platelet transfusions in hemato‐oncology patients based on bleeding risks

Abstract Background Prophylactic platelet transfusions prevent bleeding in hemato‐oncology patients, but it is unclear how any benefit varies between patients. Our aim was to assess if patients with different baseline risks for bleeding benefit differently from a prophylactic platelet transfusion strategy. Study design and methods Using the data from the randomized controlled TOPPS trial (Trial of Platelet Prophylaxis), we developed a prediction model for World Health Organization grades 2, 3, and 4 bleeding risk (defined as at least one bleeding episode in a 30 days period) and grouped patients in four risk‐quartiles based on this predicted baseline risk. Predictors in the model were baseline platelet count, age, diagnosis, disease modifying treatment, disease status, previous stem cell transplantation, and the randomization arm. Results The model had a c‐statistic of 0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.64). There was little variation in predicted risks (quartiles 46%, 47%, and 51%), but prophylactic platelet transfusions gave a risk reduction in all risk quartiles. The absolute risk difference (ARD) was 3.4% (CI −12.2 to 18.9) in the lowest risk quartile (quartile 1), 7.4% (95% CI −8.4 to 23.3) in quartile 2, 6.8% (95% CI −9.1 to 22.9) in quartile 3, and 12.8% (CI −3.1 to 28.7) in the highest risk quartile (quartile 4). Conclusion In our study, generally accepted bleeding risk predictors had limited predictive power (expressed by the low c‐statistic), and, given the wide confidence intervals of predicted ARD, could not aid in identifying subgroups of patients who might benefit more (or less) from prophylactic platelet transfusion.

Cornelissen, Loes L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of a Proteomic Signature of Lung Cancer Risk from Bronchial Specimens of Risk-Stratified Individuals

A major challenge in lung cancer prevention and cure hinges on identifying the at-risk population that ultimately develops lung cancer. Previously, we reported proteomic alterations in the cytologically normal bronchial epithelial cells collected from the bronchial brushings of individuals at risk for lung cancer. The purpose of this study is to validate, in an independent cohort, a selected list of 55 candidate proteins associated with risk for lung cancer with sensitive targeted proteomics using selected reaction monitoring (SRM). Bronchial brushings collected from individuals at low and high risk for developing lung cancer as well as patients with lung cancer, from both a subset of the original cohort (batch 1: n = 10 per group) and an independent cohort of 149 individuals (batch 2: low risk (n = 32), high risk (n = 34), and lung cancer (n = 83)), were analyzed using multiplexed SRM assays. ALDH3A1 and AKR1B10 were found to be consistently overexpressed in the high-risk group in both batch 1 and batch 2 brushing specimens as well as in the biopsies of batch 1. Validation of highly discriminatory proteins and metabolic enzymes by SRM in a larger independent cohort supported their use to identify patients at high risk for developing lung cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Advanced Air Mobility and Safety Management Systems

Our current air transportation system has underserved markets, including local, regional, intraregional, and urban transportation of both people and cargo. Recent advances in aviation technology such as small highly-automated vehicles, electric aircraft, and automated air traffic are enabling business opportunities in these markets. Advanced Air Mobility, or AAM, refers to a community effort to overcome the gaps in operational rules, safety analysis, and overall acceptance, so that these new operations will be possible. For full details, please see: https://www.nasa.gov/aam As we think about how we can safely introduce these new operations, fundamental questions about how the structure of Safety Management Systems can be applied to AAM, and how that structure can be used to help us overcome the necessary technical and societal obstacles arise. Two of these questions are: • How do we tailor the requirements and desired level of monitoring and assessment to achieve safety given the breadth of possible operations and the associated risk of those operations? • How do we aid innovation by rapidly evaluating the safety of novel operations without losing associated rigor? We assume that a Safety Management System that enables these future systems will incorporate knowledge of the acceptable level of risk, and will utilize data science to automate the core monitor, assess and mitigate functions that will allow us to respond to risks and hazards in time to prevent safety incidents. In 2018, the National Academies proposed an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) that would advance these goals. (https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24962/in-time-aviation-safety-management-challenges-and-research-for-an) The National Academies made a clear distinction between in-time systems, in which hazards could be identified and risks mitigated in time to prevent incidents, and real-time systems, since many hazards and risks do not need real-time data and analysis to detect and mitigate.

In-Time Aviation Safety Management System↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation of Multiphase Flow and Poromechanical Effects Around Injection Wells in CO 2 Storage Sites

In geological CO 2 storage operations, wellbore deformations and leakage pathways formations can occur around injection and abandoned wells subjected to high rates and long-term CO 2 injection. To guide engineering design and prevent CO 2 leakage risks, a full understanding of the underlying physics and robust numerical models is necessary to evaluate the response of underground formations in the near wellbore region and in the reservoir. In this study, a multi-scale and multi-physics open-source simulator (GEOS) is used to simulate multiphase flow and poromechanical deformations over time in three dimensions. The governing equations for mechanical deformations of the rock body and multiphase compositional fluid flow within the rock matrix are solved with a fully coupled finite element and finite volume approach. The Drucker–Prager model with friction hardening is applied to simulate elastoplastic deformation and a multiphase fluid model with power-law correlations for relative permeability is used to model the migration of CO 2 plume, which are coupled with numerical implicit scheme. Simulation results are verified against multiple analytical solutions for multiphase flow and wellbore problems, thus demonstrating the accuracy of this advanced simulator. In two engineering applications, here we highlight the impact of elastoplastic deformation and coupled modeling for assessing induced displacements and stress perturbations, which are more pronounced in the near wellbore regions. This work focuses on short-term processes in the vicinity of injection wells where stress evolutions, rock deformations and multiphase compositional flow and transport are simulated jointly to ensure wellbore stability and prevent damage. This fully coupled geomechanical model can simulate multiphase flow and any associated poromechanical effects within the CO 2 storage site and in the surrounding formations. Such a large-scale, long-term, multi-physics simulation model is useful in many ways: it can guide operational decisions for CO 2 injection, assess the containment potential and risks of a site, and analyze the wellbore stability and integrity during and after CO 2 injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗