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Constructing Data-Driven Predictions at the Far Detector for NOvA's Neutrino Oscillation Analysis.

NOvA, is a two-detector, long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment located at Fermilab, Batavia, IL, USA. It is designed primarily to constrain neutrino oscillation parameters using $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ disappearance and $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ appearance data. The Neutrinos at Main Injector (NuMI) beamline at Fermilab provides a high purity 900 KW intense beam of neutrinos and anti-neutrinos to NOvA. The NOvA Near Detector, located 100m underground and 1km away from the beam source, observes the un-oscillated $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and beam $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ event spectrum. The Far Detector, located in Ash River, MN, USA, is 809 km from the ND and records the oscillated $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ and the un-oscillated $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ event spectrum. NOvA uses a data-driven technique called extrapolation to predict the expected number of $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ events at the Far Detector using the Near Detector data. The use of data from a functionally equivalent Near Detector provides a powerful constraint on the systematic uncertainties in NOvA neutrino oscillation analyses. As NOvA continues to add data statistics, a robust constraint on systematics becomes more crucial for neutrino oscillation analysis. The details of the NOvA neutrino oscillation analysis framework and how it constrains dominant systematic uncertainties using the Near Detector data will be discussed in this poster.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS

Beyond microbial abundance: metadata integration enhances disease prediction in human microbiome studies

Multiple studies have highlighted the interaction of the human microbiome with physiological systems such as the gut, immune, liver, and skin, via key axes. Advances in sequencing technologies and high-performance computing have enabled the analysis of large-scale metagenomic data, facilitating the use of machine learning to predict disease likelihood from microbiome profiles. However, challenges such as compositionality, high dimensionality, sparsity, and limited sample sizes have hindered the development of actionable models. One strategy to improve these models is by incorporating key metadata from both the human host and sample collection/processing protocols. This remains challenging due to sparsity and inconsistency in metadata annotation and availability. In this paper, we introduce a machine learning-based pipeline for predicting human disease states by integrating host and protocol metadata with microbiome abundance profiles from 68 different studies, processed through a consistent pipeline. Our findings indicate that metadata can enhance machine learning predictions, particularly at higher taxonomic ranks like Kingdom and Phylum, though this effect diminishes at lower ranks. Our study leverages a large collection of microbiome datasets comprising 11,208 samples, therefore enhancing the robustness and statistical confidence of our findings. This work is a critical step toward utilizing microbiome and metadata for predicting diseases such as gastrointestinal infections, diabetes, cancer, and neurological disorders.

Mathematics and Computing

RCEMIP-II: mock-Walker simulations as phase II of the radiative–convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

Abstract. The radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) model intercomparison project (RCEMIP) leveraged the simplicity of RCE to focus attention on moist convective processes and their interactions with radiation and circulation across a wide range of model types including cloud-resolving models (CRMs), general circulation models (GCMs), single-column models, global cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. While several robust results emerged across the spectrum of models that participated in the first phase of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-I), two points that stand out are (1) the strikingly large diversity in simulated climate states and (2) the strong imprint of convective self-aggregation on the climate state. However, the lack of consensus in the structure of self-aggregation and its response to warming is a barrier to understanding. Gaining a deeper understanding of convective aggregation and tropical climate will require reducing the degrees of freedom with which convection can vary. Therefore, we propose phase II of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-II) that utilizes a prescribed sinusoidal sea surface temperature (SST) pattern to provide a constraint on the structure of convection and move one critical step up the model hierarchy. This so-called “mock-Walker” configuration generates features that resemble observed tropical circulations. The specification of the mock-Walker protocol for RCEMIP-II is described, along with example results from one CRM and one GCM. RCEMIP-II will consist of five required simulations: three simulations with the same three mean SSTs as in RCEMIP-I but with an SST gradient and two additional simulations at one of the mean SSTs with different values of the SST gradients. We also test the sensitivity to the imposed SST gradient and the domain size. Under weak SST gradients, unforced self-aggregation emerges across the entire domain, similar to what was found in RCEMIP. As the SST gradient increases, the convective region narrows and is more confined to the warmest SSTs. At warmer mean SSTs and stronger SST gradients, low-frequency variability in the convective aggregation emerges, suggesting that simulations of at least 200 d may be needed to achieve robust equilibrium statistics in this configuration. Simulations with different domain sizes generally have similar mean statistics and convective structures, depending on the value of the SST gradient. The prescribed SST boundary condition is the only difference in the set-up between RCEMIP-II and RCEMIP-I, which enables comparison between the two; however, we also welcome participation in RCEMIP-II from models that did not participate in RCEMIP-I.

Geology

Comparison of ER-2 Aircraft and POAM-III, MLS, and SAGE-II Satellite Measurements During SOLVE Using Traditional Correlative Analysis and Trajectory Hunting Technique

We compared the version 5 Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), version 3 Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement-III (POAM-111) aboard the French satellite SPOT-IV, version 6.0 Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 11 (SAGE-II) aboard the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite, and NASA ER-2 aircraft measurements made in the northern hemisphere in January-February 2000 during the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE). This study addresses one of the key scientific objectives of the SOLVE campaign, namely, to validate multi-platform satellite measurements made in the polar stratosphere during winter. This intercomparison was performed using a traditional correlative analysis (TCA) and a trajectory hunting technique (THT). Launching backward and forward trajectories from the points of measurement, the THT identifies air parcels sampled at least twice within a prescribed match criterion during the course of 5 days. We found that the ozone measurements made by these four instruments agree most of the time within 110% in the stratosphere up to 1400 K (approximately 35 km). The water vapor measurements from POAM-III and the ER-2 Harvard Lyman-alpha hygrometer and JPL laser hygrometer agree to within 10.5 ppmv (or about +/-10%) in the lower stratosphere above 380 K. The MLS and ER-2 ClO measurements agree within their error bars for the TCA. The MLS and ER-2 nitric acid measurements near 17-20 km altitude agree within their uncertainties most of the time with a hint of a positive offset by MLS according to the TCA. We also applied the AER box model constrained by the ER-2 measurements for analysis of the ClO and HN03 measurements using the THT. We found that: (1) the model values of ClO are smaller by about 0.3-0.4 (0.2) ppbv below (above) 400 K than those by MLS and (2) the HN03 comparison shows a positive offset of MLS values by approximately 1 and 1-2 ppbv below 400 K and near 450 K, respectively. It is hard to quantify the HN03 offset in the 400-440 K range because of the high sensitivity of nitric acid to the PSC schemes. Our study shows that, with some limitations (like HN03 comparison under PSC conditions), the THT is a more powerful tool for validation studies than the TCA, making conclusions of the comparison statistically more robust.

Danilin, M. Y.

Three-dimensional segmentation of luminal and adventitial borders in serial intravascular ultrasound images

Intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) provides exact anatomy of arteries, allowing accurate quantitative analysis. Automated segmentation of IVUS images is a prerequisite for routine quantitative analyses. We present a new three-dimensional (3D) segmentation technique, called active surface segmentation, which detects luminal and adventitial borders in IVUS pullback examinations of coronary arteries. The technique was validated against expert tracings by computing correlation coefficients (range 0.83-0.97) and William's index values (range 0.37-0.66). The technique was statistically accurate, robust to image artifacts, and capable of segmenting a large number of images rapidly. Active surface segmentation enabled geometrically accurate 3D reconstruction and visualization of coronary arteries and volumetric measurements.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary

Spiraling Away from Vesta: Design of the Transfer from the Low to High Altitude Dawn Mapping Orbits

Dawn has successfully completed its orbital mission at Vesta and is currently en route to an orbital rendezvous with Ceres in 2015. The longest duration and most complex portion of the Vesta departure trajectory was the transfer from the low to high altitude science orbit. This paper describes the design of this low-thrust trajectory optimized assuming a minimum-propellant mass objective. The transfer utilized solar-electric ion propulsion applied over 139 spacecraft revolutions about Vesta. Science drivers, operational constraints, and robustness to statistical uncertainties are addressed. The 45-day transfer trajectory was successfully implemented in early 2012.

low thrust

The Roughness Properties of Small Ice-Bearing Craters at the South Pole of the Moon: Implications for Accessing Fresh Water Ice in Future Surface Operations

The lunar poles provide a fascinating thermal environment capable of cold-trapping water ice on geologic timescales [1]. While there have been many observations indicating the presence of water ice at the lunar surface [e.g., 2–4], it is still not clear when this ice was delivered to the Moon. The timing of volatile dep-osition provides important constraints on the origin of lunar ice because different delivery mechanisms have been active at different times throughout lunar history. We previously found that some small (<10 km) cra-ters at the south pole of the Moon have morphologies suggestive of relatively young ages, on the basis of crisp crater rims [5]. These craters are too small to date with robust cratering statistics [5], but the possibility of ice in young craters is intriguing because it suggests that there is some recent and perhaps ongoing mechanism that is delivering or redistributing water to polar cold traps. Therefore, understanding if these small, ice-bear-ing craters are indeed young is essential in understand-ing the age and source of volatiles on the Moon. Here we take a new approach to understand the ages of these small polar cold traps: analyzing the roughness properties of small ice-bearing craters. It is well under-stood that impact crater properties (e.g., morphology, rock abundance, and roughness) evolve with time due to a variety of geologic and space-weathering processes [6–11]. Topographic roughness is a measurement of the local deviation from the mean topography, providing a measurement of surface texture, and is a powerful tool for evaluating surface evolution over geologic time [e.g., 11–14]. In this study we analyze the roughness of southern lunar craters (40°S–90°S) from all geologic eras, and determine how the roughness of small (<10 km) ice-bearing craters compare. We discuss the implications of the ages of ice-bearing south polar craters, and potential strategies for accessing fresh ice on the Moon.

Deutsch, Ariel N.

A High Binary Fraction for the Most Massive Close-in Giant Planets and Brown Dwarf Desert Members

Stellar multiplicity is believed to influence planetary formation and evolution, although the precise nature and extent of this role remain ambiguous. We present a study aimed at testing the role of stellar multiplicity in the formation and/or evolution of the most massive, close-in planetary and substellar companions. Using past and new direct imaging observations, as well as the Gaia DR2 catalogue, we searched for wide binary companions to 38 stars hosting massive giant planets or brown dwarfs (M > 7 MJup) on orbits shorter than ∼1 au. We report the discovery of a new component in the WASP-14 system, and present an independent confirmation of a comoving companion to WASP-18. From a robust Bayesian statistical analysis, we derived a binary fraction of per cent between 20 and 10 000 au for our sample, twice as high as for field stars with a 3σ significance. This binary frequency was found to be larger than for lower-mass planets on similar orbits, and we observed a marginally higher binary rate for inner companions with periods shorter than 10 d. These results demonstrate that stellar companions greatly influence the formation and/or evolution of these systems, suggesting that the role played by binary companions becomes more important for higher-mass planets, and that this trend may be enhanced for systems with tighter orbits. Our analysis also revealed a peak in binary separation at 250 au, highlighting a shortfall of close binaries among our sample. This indicates that the mechanisms affecting planet and brown dwarf formation or evolution in binaries must operate from wide separations, although we found that the Kozai–Lidov mechanism is unlikely to be the dominant underlying process. We conclude that binarity plays a crucial role in the existence of very massive short-period giant planets and brown dwarf desert inhabitants, which are almost exclusively observed in multiple systems.

C Fontanive

Cross‐Instrument Comparison of MapCam and OVIRS on OSIRIS‐REx

Two of the instruments onboard the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, the MapCam color imager and the OVIRS visible and 20 infrared spectrometer, observed the surface of asteroid (101955) Bennu in partially overlapping wavelengths. 21 Significant scientific advances have been enabled by using data from these two instruments in tandem, but a robust 22 statistical understanding of their relationship is needed for future analyses to cross-compare their data as accurately 23 and sensitively as possible. Here we present a cross-instrument comparison of data acquired by MapCam and 24 OVIRS, including methods and results for all global and site-specific observation campaigns in which both 25 instruments were active. In our analysis, we consider both the absolute radiometric offset and the relative 26 (normalized) variation between the two instruments; we find that both depend strongly on the photometric and 27 instrumental conditions during the observation. The two instruments have a large absolute offset (>15%) due to their 28 independent radiometric calibrations. However, they are very consistent (relative offset as low as 1%) when each 29 instrument’s response is normalized at a single wavelength, particularly at low phase angles where shadows on 30 Bennu’s rough surface are minimized. We recommend using the global datasets acquired at 12:30 pm local solar 31 time for cross-comparisons; data acquired at higher phase angles have larger uncertainties.

D R Golish

A Minority Report Submitted as an Addendum to the Report of the Mars 2020 Organic Contamination Panel

This Minority Report (MR) presents seven findings in addition to or contrary to the main OCP report: 1. Contamination control for the Mars 2020 cache must be strict. Mars’ surface is known to be organics-poor from laboratory studies, Mars meteorite analyses, and from four previous NASA missions. It is imperative that contamination control measures are enacted that enable reliable and robust detection of potential biomarker compounds at the ppb level. 2. Since Mars 2020 is a sample return mission and analyses of samples in the returnable cache are expected to occur after return to Earth, positive controls are not recommended for flight on Mars 2020 unless a compelling case can be made for their use. 3. The findings of previous panels dedicated to organic compound analysis in Martian samples (OCSSG, ND-SAG, SDT) recommend TOC limits between 10-40 ppb. The MR finds that the lower limit of 10 ppb is recommended and that insufficient justification is given by the OCP Panel Report (PR) to raise the TOC limit to 40 ppb. 4. Analytical capability is sufficiently advanced that analytical capability is an irrelevant consideration with respect to differentiating between 10 and 40 ppb TOC. 5. Perceived contamination control challenges are an irrelevant consideration for raising the TOC contamination limit from 10 to 40 ppb since those challenges, and the procedures to ameliorate them, will exist regardless of whether the limit is 10 or 40 ppb. 6. The “dilution cleaning” method has not been adequately proven for utilization on the Mars 2020 mission. Shortcomings have been identified in terms of peer review, method verification, analytical and testing approach, application to space flight hardware, and performance under Martian conditions. The method should be revisited and independently tested using statistically and analytically robust methods, and scrutinized in a rigorous peer review process. 7. The Mars 2020 mission claims considerable heritage from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission, but MSL contamination control efforts contain significant errors and implementation discrepancies that would imperil the Mars 2020 caching mission were they repeated. A standing contamination control panel should be formed to provide independent oversight for the Mars 2020 mission.

Mars Sample Return

Using Dust from Asteroids as Regolith Microsamples

Meteorite science is rich with compositional indicators by which we classify parent bodies, but few sample groups are definitively linked with asteroid spectra. More robust links need to be forged between meteorites and their parent bodies to understand the composition, diversity and distribution. A major link can be sample analysis of the parent body material and comparison with meteorite data. Hayabusa, the first sample return mission of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), was developed to rendezvous with and collect samples from asteroid Itokawa and return them to Earth. Thousands of sub-100 micron particles were recovered, apparently introduced during the spacecraft impact into the surface of the asteroid, linking the asteroid Itokawa to LL chondrites [1]. Upcoming missions Hayabusa 2 and OSIRIS-REx will collect more significant sample masses from asteroids. In all these cases, the samples are or will be a collection of regolith particles. Sample return to earth is not the only method for regolith particle analysis. Dust is present around all airless bodies, generated by micrometeorite impact into their airless surfaces, which in turn lofts regolith particles into a "cloud" around the body. The composition, flux, and size-frequency distribution of dust particles can provide significant insight into the geological evolution of airless bodies [2]. For example, the Cassini Cosmic Dust Analyzer (CDA) detected salts in Enceladus' icy plume material, providing evidence for a subsurface ocean in contact with a silicate seafloor [3]. Similar instruments have flown on the Rosetta, LADEE, and Stardust missions. Such an instrument may be of great use in obtaining the elemental, isotopic and mineralogical composition measurement of dust particles originating from asteroids without returning the samples to terrestrial laboratories. We investigated the ability of a limited sample analysis capability using a dust instrument to forge links between asteroid regolith particles and known meteorite groups. We further set limits on the number of individual particles statistically needed to robustly reproduce a bulk composition.

microsamples

Quantification and assessment of the atmospheric boundary layer height measured during the AWAKEN experiment by a scanning LiDAR

The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height plays a key role in many atmospheric processes as one of the dominant flow length scales. However, a systematic quantification of the ABL height over the entire range of scales (i.e., with periods ranging from one minute to one year) is still lacking in literature. In this work, the ABL height is quantified based on high-resolution measurements collected by a scanning pulsed Doppler LiDAR during the recent American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN) campaign. The high availability of ABL height estimates (≈2200 collected over one year and each of them based on 10-min averaged statistics) allows to robustly assess five different ABL height models, i.e., one for convective thermal conditions and four for stable conditions. Thermal condition is quantified by a stability parameter spanning three orders of magnitude and probed by near-ground 3D sonic anemometry. The free-atmosphere stability, quantified by the Brunt–Väisälä frequency, is both calculated from simultaneous radiosonde measurements and obtained from the best fit of two of the chosen ABL height models. Good agreement is found between the data and three of the chosen models, quantified by mean absolute errors on the ABL height between 281 and 585 m. Furthermore, the seasonal variability of the convective ABL height model parameters (−15% to +23% with respect to the year baseline) agrees with the variability of buoyancy-generated turbulence caused by the variation in solar radiation throughout the year.

17 WIND ENERGY

Analysis of Warped April Tag Impacts on Detection and Pose Estimation

This report evaluates the impact of geometric deformation on an April Tag, particularly when warped due to attachment on a curved surface, on its detectability and pose estimation performance. A comparative analysis was conducted using a flat April Tag as a control under identical experimental conditions, which involved recording video sequences with varying viewing angles. For detectability, the warped tag exhibited consistent detection failures at viewing angles beyond 40° and complete failures beyond 60°, whereas the flat tag maintained reliable detection across all angles. For pose estimation, measured by pose jitter (variation in rotation and translation), differences between the warped and flat tags were minimal and statistically insignificant, indicating robust performance even for the deformed tag. These findings suggest that while geometric warping reduces an April Tag’s detectability, its pose estimation accuracy remains relatively unaffected under the tested conditions.

42 ENGINEERING

A photostationary state analysis of the NO2-NO system based on airborne observations from the subtropical/tropical North and South Atlantic

The Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation 3 (CITE 3) NO-NO2 database has provided a unique opportunity to examine important aspects of tropospheric photochemistry as related to the rapid cycling between NO and NO2. Our results suggest that when quantitative testing of this photochemical system is based on airborne field data, extra precautions may need to be taken in the analysis. This was particularly true in the CITE 3 data analysis where different regional environments produced quite different results when evaluating the photochemical test ratio (NO2)(sub expt)/(NO2)(sub calc), designated here as R(sub E)/R(sub C). The quantity (NO2)(sub Calc) was evaluated using the following photostationary state expression: (NO2)(sub Calc) = k(sub 1)(O3) + k(sub 4)(HO2) + k(sub 5)(CH3O2) + k(sub 6)(RO2))(NO)(sub Expt)/J(sub 2). The four most prominent regional environmental data sets identified in this analysis were those labeled here as free-tropospheric northern hemisphere (FTNH), free-tropospheric tropical northern hemisphere (FTTNH), free-tropospheric southern hemisphere (FTSH), and tropical-marine boundary layer (plume) (TMBL(P)). The respective R(sub E)/R(sub C) mean and median values for these four data subsets were 1.74, 1.69; 3.00, 2.79; 1.01, 0.97; and 0.99, 0.94. Of the four data subsets listed, the two that were statistically the most robust were FTNH and FTSH; for these the respective R(sub E)/R(sub C) mean and standard deviation of the mean values were 1.74 +/- 0.07 and 1.01 +/- 0.04. The FTSH observations were in good agreement with theory, whereas those from the FTNH data set were in significant disagreement. An examination of the critical photochemical parameters O3, UV(zenith), NO, NO2, and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) for these two databases indicated that the most likely source of the R(sub E)/R(sub C) bias in the FTNH results was the presence of a systematic error in the observational data rather than a shortening in our understanding of fundamental photochemical processes. Although neither a chemical nor meteorological analyses of these data identified this error with complete certainty, they did point to the three most likely possibilities: (1) an NO2 interference from a yet unidentified NO(y) species: (2) the presence of unmeasured hydrocarbons, the integrated reactivity of which would be equivalent to approximately 2.7 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) of toluene; or (3) some combination of points (1) and (2). Details concerning hypotheses (1) and (2) as well as possible ways to minimize these problems in future airborne missions are discussed.

Davis, D. D.

Chemical studies of H chondrites. 4: New data and comparison of Antarctic suites

We report data for the trace elements Au, Co, Sb, Ga, Rb, Ag, Se, Cs, Te, Zn, Cd, Bi, Ti, and In (ordered by putative volatility during nebular condensation and accretion) determined by neutron activation analysis in 13 H5 chondrites from Victoria Land and 20 H4-6 chondrites from Queen Maud Land, Antarctica. These and earlier results provide Antarctic sample suites of 34 chondrites from Victoria Land and 25 from Queen Maud Land. Treatment of data for the most volatile 10 elements (Rb to In) in these studies by multivariate statistical techniques more robust, as well as more conservative, than conventional linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression demonstrates that compositions differ at marginally significant levels. This difference cannot be explained by trivial (terrestrial) causes and becomes more significant, despite the smaller size of the database, when comparisons are limited to data from a single analyst and when all upper limits are eliminated from consideration. The Victoria Land and Queen Maud Land suites have different mean terrestrial ages (approximately 300 kyr and approximately 100 kyr, respectively) and age distributions, suggesting that a time-dependent variation of chondritic sources with different thermal histories is responsible. As a result, these two Antarctic suites are, on average, chemically distinguishable from each other. Since H chondrites serve as a paradigm for other meteorite classes, these results indicate that the near-Earth populations of planetary materials varied with time on the 10(exp 5)-year timescale.

Wolf, Stephen F.

Mars Exploration Rover Six-Degree-Of-Freedom Entry Trajectory Analysis

The Mars Exploration Rover mission will be the next opportunity for surface exploration of Mars in January 2004. Two rovers will be delivered to the surface of Mars using the same entry, descent, and landing scenario that was developed and successfully implemented by Mars Pathfinder. This investigation describes the trajectory analysis that was performed for the hypersonic portion of the MER entry. In this analysis, a six-degree-of-freedom trajectory simulation of the entry is performed to determine the entry characteristics of the capsules. In addition, a Monte Carlo analysis is also performed to statistically assess the robustness of the entry design to off-nominal conditions to assure that all entry requirements are satisfied. The results show that the attitude at peak heating and parachute deployment are well within entry limits. In addition, the parachute deployment dynamics pressure and Mach number are also well within the design requirements.

Desai, Prasun N.

Mars Exploration Rovers Entry, Descent, and Landing Trajectory Analysis

The Mars Exploration Rover mission successfully landed two rovers "Spirit" and "Opportunity" on Mars on January 4th and 25th of 2004, respectively. The trajectory analysis performed to define the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) scenario is described. The entry requirements and constraints are presented, as well as uncertainties used in a Monte Carlo dispersion analysis to statistically assess the robustness of the entry design to off-nominal conditions. In the analysis, six-degree-of-freedom and three-degree-of-freedom trajectory results are compared to assess the entry characteristics of the capsule. Comparison of the preentry results to preliminary post-landing reconstruction data shows that all EDL parameters were within the requirements. In addition, the final landing position for both "Spirit" and "Opportunity" were within 15 km of the predicted landing location.

Desai, Prasun N.

New Directions in Tropical Phenology

Earth’s most speciose biomes are in the tropics, yet tropical plant phenology remains poorly understood. Tropical phenological data are comparatively scarce and viewed through the lens of a ‘temperate phenological paradigm’ expecting phenological traits to respond to strong, predictably annual shifts in climate (e.g., between subfreezing and frost-free periods). Digitized herbarium data greatly expand existing phenological data for tropical plants; and circular data, statistics, and models are more appropriate for analyzing tropical (and temperate) phenological datasets. Phylogenetic information, which remains seldom applied in phenological investigations, provides new insights into phenological responses of large groups of related species to climate. Consistent combined use of herbarium data, circular statistical distributions, and robust phylogenies will rapidly advance our understanding of tropical – and temperate – phenology.

tropical phenology