Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “scenario generation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

A Climate Generator for Agricultural Planning in Southeastern South America

A method is described for the generation of climate scenarios in a form suitable for driving agricultural models. The scenarios are tailored to the region in southeastern South America bounded by 25-40 deg S, 45-65 deg W, denoted here as SESA. SESA has been characterized by increasing summer precipitation, particularly during the late 20th century, which, in the context of favorable market conditions, has enabled increases in agricultural production. Since about year 2000, however, the upward tendency appears to have slowed or possibly stopped, raising questions about future climate inputs to regional agricultural yields. The method is not predictive in the deterministic sense, but rather attempts to characterize uncertainty in near-term future climate, taking into account both forced trends and unforced, natural climate fluctuations. It differs from typical downscaling methods in that GCM information is utilized only at the regional scale, subregional variability being modeled based on the observational record. Output, generated on the monthly time scale, is disaggregated to daily values with a weather generator and used to drive soybean yields in the crop model DSSAT-CSM, for which preliminary results are discussed. The simulations produced permit assessment of the interplay between long-range trends and near-term climate variability in terms of agricultural production.

climate simulation↗

Evaluating the Environmental Performance of the U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation System

The environmental impacts of several possible U.S. Next Generation Air Transportation scenarios have been quantitatively evaluated for noise, air-quality, fuel-efficiency, and CO2 impacts. Three principal findings have emerged. (1) 2025 traffic levels about 30% higher than 2006 are obtained by increasing traffic according to FAA projections while also limiting traffic at each airport using reasonable ratios of demand to capacity. NextGen operational capabilities alone enable attainment of an additional 10-15% more flights beyond that 2025 baseline level with negligible additional noise, air-quality, and fuel-efficiency impacts. (2) The addition of advanced engine and airframe technologies provides substantial additional reductions in noise and air-quality impacts, and further improves fuel efficiency. 2025 environmental goals based on projected system-wide improvement rates of about 1% per year for noise and fuel-efficiency (an air-quality goal is not yet formulated) are achieved using this new vehicle technology. (3) Overall air-transport "product", as measured by total flown distance or total payload distance, increases by about 50% relative to 2006, but total fuel consumption and CO2 production increase by only about 40% using NextGen operational capabilities. With the addition of advanced engine/airframe technologies, the increase in total fuel consumption and CO2 production can be reduced to about 30%.

Environmental impact↗

Mass and Volume Optimization of Space Flight Medical Kits

Resource allocation is a critical aspect of space mission planning. All resources, including medical resources, are subject to a number of mission constraints such a maximum mass and volume. However, unlike many resources, there is often limited understanding in how to optimize medical resources for a mission. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that estimates medical event occurrences and mission outcomes for different mission profiles. IMM simulates outcomes and describes the impact of medical events in terms of lost crew time, medical resource usage, and the potential for medically required evacuation. Previously published work describes an approach that uses the IMM to generate optimized medical kits that maximize benefit to the crew subject to mass and volume constraints. We improve upon the results obtained previously and extend our approach to minimize mass and volume while meeting some benefit threshold. METHODS We frame the medical kit optimization problem as a modified knapsack problem and implement an algorithm utilizing dynamic programming. Using this algorithm, optimized medical kits were generated for 3 mission scenarios with the goal of minimizing the medical kit mass and volume for a specified likelihood of evacuation or Crew Health Index (CHI) threshold. The algorithm was expanded to generate medical kits that maximize likelihood of evacuation or CHI subject to mass and volume constraints. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS In maximizing benefit to crew health subject to certain constraints, our algorithm generates medical kits that more closely resemble the unlimited-resource scenario than previous approaches which leverage medical risk information generated by the IMM. Our work here demonstrates that this algorithm provides an efficient and effective means to objectively allocate medical resources for spaceflight missions and provides an effective means of addressing tradeoffs in medical resource allocations and crew mission success parameters.

Monte Carlo Method↗

Quasi-periodic oscillations in the X-ray flux of the rapid burster (MXB 1730-335)

The results of an Exosat observation of the 'Rapid Burster' in August 1985 during an active state are presented. Forty 1-10 minute long type 2 bursts were detected together with constant emission. Quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) were observed in 23 bursts with frequencies in the range of 2-5 Hz. Obscuration of the central X-ray source by an oscillating accretion disk rim is suggested as a possible scenario for the generation of the QPO from the Rapid Burster.

Stella, L.↗

Numerical simulations of an isolated microbursts. II - Sensitivity experiments

A time-dependent, high-resolution, axisymmetric numerical model simulating isolated and stationary microbursts is used to evaluate the sensitivity of microbursts to the environment and other factors. It is found that microbursts intensity is sensitive to ther vertical distirbution of ambient temperature and humidity, the horiontal width of the precipitation shaft or downdraft, the magnitutde of precipitation loading, and the type and duration of precipitation. Scenarios for the generation of an intense microburst and the possible applications of the results are examined.

Proctor, Fred H.↗

A space-based concept for a collision warning sensor

This paper describes a concept for a space-based collision warning sensor experiment, the Debris Collision Warning Sensor (DCWS) experiment, in which the sensor will rely on passive sensing of debris in optical and IR passband. The DCWS experiment will be carried out under various conditions of solar phase angle and pass geometry; debris from 1.5 m to 1 mm diam will be observable. The mission characteristics include inclination in the 55-60 deg range and an altitude of about 500 km. The results of the DCWS experiment will be used to generate collision warning scenarios for the Space Station Freedom.

Talent, David L.↗

A theory for narrow-banded radio bursts at Uranus - MHD surface waves as an energy driver

A possible scenario for the generation of the narrow-banded radio bursts detected at Uranus by the Voyager 2 planetary radio astronomy experiment is described. In order to account for the emission burstiness which occurs on time scales of hundreds of milliseconds, it is proposed that ULF magnetic surface turbulence generated at the frontside magnetopause propagates down the open/closed field line boundary and mode-converts to kinetic Alfven waves (KAW) deep within the polar cusp. The oscillating KAW potentials then drive a transient electron stream that creates the bursty radio emission. To substantiate these ideas, Voyager 2 magnetometer measurements of enhanced ULF magnetic activity at the frontside magnetopause are shown. It is demonstrated analytically that such magnetic turbulence should mode-convert deep in the cusp at a radial distance of 3 RU.

Farrell, W. M.↗

Generating and evaluating alternate schedules

The demand for and availability of Space Network resources are subject to short-term fluctuations and long-term changes. Generation of acceptable schedules under changing demand and resource availability will require the use of different scheduling policies. This paper identifies several such scheduling policies. It defines metrics for evaluating schedules using the criteria directly related to these scheduling policies. Then it applies the metrics to compare several schedules generated for a scenario representative of 1998 SN demand and resources. Finally, the paper describes a method for using these metrics to evaluate schedules based on multiple criteria.

Reddy, Surender D.↗

Locating Anomalies in Complex Data Sets Using Visualization and Simulation

The research goals are to create a simulation framework that can accept any combination of models written at the gate or behavioral level. The framework provides the ability to fault simulate and create scenarios of experiments using concurrent simulation. In order to meet these goals we have had to fulfill the following requirements. The ability to accept models written in VHDL, Verilog or the C languages. The ability to propagate faults through any model type. The ability to create experiment scenarios efficiently without generating every possible combination of variables. The ability to accept adversity of fault models beyond the single stuck-at model. Major development has been done to develop a parser that can accept models written in various languages. This work has generated considerable attention from other universities and industry for its flexibility and usefulness. The parser uses LEXX and YACC to parse Verilog and C. We have also utilized our industrial partnership with Alternative System's Inc. to import vhdl into our simulator. For multilevel simulation, we needed to modify the simulator architecture to accept models that contained multiple outputs. This enabled us to accept behavioral components. The next major accomplishment was the addition of "functional fault models". Functional fault models change the behavior of a gate or model. For example, a bridging fault can make an OR gate behave like an AND gate. This has applications beyond fault simulation. This modeling flexibility will make the simulator more useful for doing verification and model comparison. For instance, two or more versions of an ALU can be comparatively simulated in a single execution. The results will show where and how the models differed so that the performance and correctness of the models may be evaluated. A considerable amount of time has been dedicated to validating the simulator performance on larger models provided by industry and other universities.

Panetta, Karen↗

Meeting Air Transportation Demand in 2025 by Using Larger Aircraft and Alternative Routing to Complement NextGen Operational Improvements

A study was performed that investigates the use of larger aircraft and alternative routing to complement the capacity benefits expected from the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) in 2025. National Airspace System (NAS) delays for the 2025 demand projected by the Transportation Systems Analysis Models (TSAM) were assessed using NASA s Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). The shift in demand from commercial airline to automobile and from one airline route to another was investigated by adding the route delays determined from the ACES simulation to the travel times used in the TSAM and re-generating new flight scenarios. The ACES simulation results from this study determined that NextGen Operational Improvements alone do not provide sufficient airport capacity to meet the projected demand for passenger air travel in 2025 without significant system delays. Using larger aircraft with more seats on high-demand routes and introducing new direct routes, where demand warrants, significantly reduces delays, complementing NextGen improvements. Another significant finding of this study is that the adaptive behavior of passengers to avoid congested airline-routes is an important factor when projecting demand for transportation systems. Passengers will choose an alternative mode of transportation or alternative airline routes to avoid congested routes, thereby reducing delays to acceptable levels for the 2025 scenario; the penalty being that alternative routes and the option to drive increases overall trip time by 0.4% and may be less convenient than the first-choice route.

Smith, Jeremy C.↗

SO-QT: Collaborative Tool to Project the Future Space Object Population

Earth orbit gets increasingly congested, a challenge to space operators, both in governments and industry. We present a web tool that provides: 1) data on todays and the historic space object environments, by aggregating object-specific tracking data; and 2) future trends through a collaboration platform to collect information on planed launches. The collaborative platform enables experts to pool and compare their data in order to generate future launch scenarios. The tool is intended to support decision makers and mission designers while they investigate future missions and scholars as they develop strategies for space traffic management.

space debris↗

Simulation and Analysis of Technology and Operational Procedures to Reduce the Combined Effects of Emissions and Contrails

The development and evaluation of concepts and technology to support future air traffic management systems require a hierarchy of models ranging from real-time simulations to extensive field evaluations. Air traffic simulation models such as Airspace Concept Evaluation System, Center Tracon Automation System, Future Air traffic management Concept Evaluation Tool and others are used to design air traffic systems balancing the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety, meeting future demands for airports and airspace and increase efficiency of traffic flows in the presence of uncertain weather. The impact of aviation emissions and contrails on climate imposes another constraint on the design of aircraft and aviation operations. The understanding of the complex interaction between physical climate system, the carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity can be improved by the development of integrated assessment models that include emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations. The modeling of aircraft emissions and their interaction with each other to change the concentration levels of different gasses in the atmosphere and the resulting impact of the radiative forcing on the equilibrium of the Earth's atmosphere is complex and requires the use of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models together with three-dimensional models of carbon cycle and chemistry of other non-CO2 greenhouse gases. These models are computationally intensive and unsuitable for studies involving the generation of multiple scenarios. Simple emission and climate models, based on the input-output relations of linear systems, capture the fundamental emission to climate impact behavior by careful selection of key variables and their dynamics. The impact of various greenhouse gases depends on the total concentration, effect per unit change in atmospheric concentration and the spatial distribution of the gas. All these quantities are influenced by the lifetime of the gas. The impact of a greenhouse gas depends on the interval of assessment, which may vary from a few decades to a few centuries. Climate metrics are aimed at providing a common scale to compare different greenhouse gases. If the metrics are to be used as a tool in developing and evaluating aviation operations, they should be transparent and easy to apply. Global Warming Potential and Aggregate Global Temperature Potential are some of the commonly used metrics. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability brings together metrics, which are useful in aviation operations together with metrics used in climate studies. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in climate impact. There is considerable uncertainty in our understanding of the radiative forcing associated with emissions and contrails. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails. It can also be used to evaluate the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

impact of aviation on the environment↗

Development of an Airspace Simulation and Modeling Tool for Enhanced Spectrum Management

The emergence of new aerial vehicles into the National Airspace System creates an increased demand for aeronautical communications to support aviation operations. However, the issue of spectrum scarcity remains an ever-present concern, and the growing demand cannot be supported using existing spectrum allocation strategies. As a result, a new spectrum management approach is required, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating advanced concepts to modernize the management and use of aviation spectrum by leveraging the latest advancements in wireless communications, big data and machine learning. This research proposes an autonomous spectrum allocation concept, which allocates communications resources, such as spectrum and power, based on the predicted communications and air traffic demands throughout the airspace, as opposed to the use of fixed allocations as is done today. This approach will result in improved spectrum utilization efficiency and enhanced airspace capacity. The autonomous spectrum allocation concept decomposes into three research areas: demand prediction, resource allocation, and use case evaluation. As part of the use case evaluation effort, a modeling and simulation capability is currently under development. This simulation capability includes the implementation of various features, including visualization of both live or virtually-generated airspace traffic, simulation scenario development, simulation management with data collection, and flight plan creation with corresponding trajectory generation. This modeling and simulation capability will continue to evolve as new and advanced airspace applications are introduced into existing and emerging operational environments.

Eric J. Knoblock↗

A Model for Generation of Martian Surface Dust, Soil and Rock Coatings: Physical vs. Chemical Interactions, and Palagonitic Plus Hydrothermal Alteration

This model is one of many possible scenarios to explain the generation of the current surface material on Mars using chemical, magnetic and spectroscopic data from Mars and geologic analogs from terrestrial sites. One basic premise is that there are physical and chemical interactions of the atmospheric dust particles and that these two processes create distinctly different results. Physical processes distribute dust particles on rocks, forming physical rock coatings, and on the surface between rocks forming soil units; these are reversible processes. Chemical reactions of the dust/soil particles create alteration rinds on rock surfaces or duricrust surface units, both of which are relatively permanent materials. According to this model the mineral components of the dust/soil particles are derived from a combination of "typical" palagonitic weathering of volcanic ash and hydrothermally altered components, primarily from steam vents or fumeroles. Both of these altered materials are composed of tiny particles, about 1 micron or smaller, that are aggregates of silicates and iron oxide/oxyhydroxide/sulfate phases. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Bishop, J. L.↗

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

Source record↗

Simulated Wake Characteristics Data for Closely Spaced Parallel Runway Operations Analysis

A simulation experiment was performed to generate and compile wake characteristics data relevant to the evaluation and feasibility analysis of closely spaced parallel runway (CSPR) operational concepts. While the experiment in this work is not tailored to any particular operational concept, the generated data applies to the broader class of CSPR concepts, where a trailing aircraft on a CSPR approach is required to stay ahead of the wake vortices generated by a lead aircraft on an adjacent CSPR. Data for wake age, circulation strength, and wake altitude change, at various lateral offset distances from the wake-generating lead aircraft approach path were compiled for a set of nine aircraft spanning the full range of FAA and ICAO wake classifications. A total of 54 scenarios were simulated to generate data related to key parameters that determine wake behavior. Of particular interest are wake age characteristics that can be used to evaluate both time- and distance- based in-trail separation concepts for all aircraft wake-class combinations. A simple first-order difference model was developed to enable the computation of wake parameter estimates for aircraft models having weight, wingspan and speed characteristics similar to those of the nine aircraft modeled in this work.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗

Thermal Performance Expectations of the Advanced Stirling Convertor Over a Range of Operating Scenarios

The Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) will enable various missions such as small body sample return, atmospheric missions around Venus, as well as long - duration deep space missions. Analysis of the temperature distributions are performed on an Advanced Stirling Convertor, and the results are compared with available experimental measurements. This analysis includes applied environmental conditions that are similar to those that will be experienced while the convertor is in operation. The applied conditions represent a potential mission profile including pre-takeoff sterilization, launch, transit, and return. The results focus on the anticipated peak temperatures of the magnets in the linear alternator. These results confirm that the ASC can support future missions to deep space targets, extreme environment landers, as well as more conventional goals.

Reid, Terry V.↗

Oblique Instability of Quasi-Parallel Whistler Waves in the Presence of Cold and Warm Electron Populations

Whistler waves propagating nearly parallel to the ambient magnetic field experience a nonlinear instability due to transverse currents when the background plasma has a population of sufficiently low energy electrons. Intriguingly, this nonlinear process may generate oblique electrostatic waves, including whistlers near the resonance cone with properties resembling oblique chorus waves in the Earth’s magnetosphere. Focusing on the generation of oblique whistlers, earlier analysis of the instability is extended here to the case where low-energy background plasma consists of both a “cold” population with energy of a few eV and a “warm” electron component with energy of the order of 100 eV. This is motivated by spacecraft observations in the Earth’s magnetosphere where oblique chorus waves were shown to interact resonantly with the warm electrons. The main new results are: 1) the instability producing oblique electrostatic waves is sensitive to the shape of the electron distribution at low energies. In the whistler range of frequencies, two distinct peaks in the growth rate are typically present for the model considered: a peak associated with the warm electron population at relatively low wavenumbers and a peak associated with the cold electron population at relatively high wavenumbers; 2) overall, the instability producing oblique whistler waves near the resonance cone persists (with a reduced growth rate) even in the cases where the temperature of the cold population is relatively high, including cases where cold population is absent and only the warm population is included; 3) particle-in-cell simulations show that the instability leads to heating of the background plasma and formation of characteristic plateau and beam features in the parallel electron distribution function in the range of energies resonant with the instability. The plateau/beam features have been previously detected in spacecraft observations of oblique chorus waves. However, they have been attributed to external sources and have been proposed to be the mechanism generating oblique chorus. In the present scenario, the causality link is reversed and the instability generating oblique whistler waves is shown to be a possible mechanism for formation of the plateau and beam features.

Vadim Roytershteyn↗