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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2004

Science Goal Monitor: Science Goal Driven Automation for NASA Missions

Infusion of automation technologies into NASA s future missions will be essential because of the need to: (1) effectively handle an exponentially increasing volume of scientific data, (2) successfully meet dynamic, opportunistic scientific goals and objectives, and (3) substantially reduce mission operations staff and costs. While much effort has gone into automating routine spacecraft operations to reduce human workload and hence costs, applying intelligent automation to the science side, i.e., science data acquisition, data analysis and reactions to that data analysis in a timely and still scientifically valid manner, has been relatively under-emphasized. In order to introduce science driven automation in missions, we must be able to: capture and interpret the science goals of observing programs, represent those goals in machine interpretable language; and allow spacecrafts onboard systems to autonomously react to the scientist's goals. In short, we must teach our platforms to dynamically understand, recognize, and react to the scientists goals. The Science Goal Monitor (SGM) project at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is a prototype software tool being developed to determine the best strategies for implementing science goal driven automation in missions. The tools being developed in SGM improve the ability to monitor and react to the changing status of scientific events. The SGM system enables scientists to specify what to look for and how to react in descriptive rather than technical terms. The system monitors streams of science data to identify occurrences of key events previously specified by the scientist. When an event occurs, the system autonomously coordinates the execution of the scientist s desired reactions. Through SGM, we will improve om understanding about the capabilities needed onboard for success, develop metrics to understand the potential increase in science returns, and develop an operational prototype so that the perceived risks associated with increased use of automation can be reduced.

Koratkar, Anuradha↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Lunar Lab Initiative

Analogous to terrestrial Antarctic basecamps at our south pole, space exploration outposts will be a combination of habitation and science-focused assets. The Artemis Exploration Roadmap endeavors to establish a sustained human presence on the lunar south pole starting in 2028. Within the planned Artemis Base Camp, most efforts to date have focused on the habitation assets or a mixture of science and habitation assets . With the recent advent of commercial lunar landing capabilities, the trade space can be further expanded to include dedicated science focused assets that ensure adequate science capability. To that end, the Forge, an innovation team initiative created at the Johnson Space Center (JSC), explored alternative ways to increase the science capabilities within the basecamp. The Forge uses structured brainstorming and facilitation to increase innovation within the assigned team, while executing its process in a rapid turnaround fashion for ideation and design study. As a pilot study for the Forge, a multi-disciplinary team investigated a lunar lab module to augment the lunar surface plans for Artemis. This formulation study evaluated the scientific and operational considerations for this dedicated crew space that would increase the capabilities of lunar surface science operations. The trade space evaluated single lunar lander delivery versus multiple lunar lander delivery for module assembly, alternative structural designs, the science instrument outfitting with mapping to scientific goals to maximize lunar science objectives, and how the lab would be operated. The lab operations options explored a stand-alone facility, as well as a facility integrated into a larger lunar surface complex, while evaluating crew usage and habitability considerations. The resulting alternatives were evaluated by the Forge team with a set of metrics to determine their originality, feasibility, and science performance, and thereby provide a recommendation to the lunar architecture planning team. Lessons learned from the lunar lab study were compiled to improve the process and tools for future Forge studies. Forward work, open issues, and challenges to further refine the design of the various science-focused asset options were also documented. By providing a robust science capability at humanity’s furthest outpost, we can plan for a sustained human lunar presence once the initial lunar surface access capability is well established.

Lunar outpost↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developing Metrics to Assess Justice and Equity Implications of Early-Stage Research

Physics is a central component of early-stage research and development of virtually all technologies. But as much as scientific breakthroughs often hold the key to high efficiencies, long lifetimes, and high stability in devices for countless applications, early-stage choices research choices, such as those around materials or processing, can also serve to lock in long-term social and equity impacts of deployed technologies. This talk will explore how scientists can start to consider these impacts, with a focus on the energy sector and achieving a just and sustainable energy transition. We discuss development of the Justice Underpinning Science and Technology Research (JUST-R) metrics framework - a suite of metrics targeted at early-stage researchers to assess justice considerations in their work. The framework is evaluated for its appeal to researchers and effectiveness at promoting integration of justice considerations into research through case studies, which reveal its ability to broaden researcher perspectives and key avenues for future improvement.

energy equity↗
DOE OSTI2026

Good practices for documenting AI-based studies on energy and buildings

Artificial intelligence has transformed building science research over the past decade, with applications spanning energy modeling, energy prediction, HVAC optimization and controls, fault detection, and occupancy modeling. However, many studies lack adequate documentation of datasets, algorithms, training procedures, and validation methods. Building science research faces additional challenges including inconsistent evaluation metrics, limited generalizability across building types, climates, and significant gaps between experimental studies and deployed systems. This communication provides practical guidance for good practices in documenting and publishing AI-based research following established standards from the computer science and machine learning communities. By adopting frameworks such as Datasheets for Datasets, Model Cards, and standardized reproducibility checklists, researchers can ensure their work meets the rigorous documentation standards necessary for reproducible, comparable, and impactful building science research.

Hong, Tianzhen [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implicit learning of convective organization explains precipitation stochasticity

Accurate prediction of precipitation intensity is crucial for both human and natural systems, especially in a warming climate more prone to extreme precipitation. Yet, climate models fail to accurately predict precipitation intensity, particularly extremes. One missing piece of information in traditional climate model parameterizations is subgrid-scale cloud structure and organization, which affects precipitation intensity and stochasticity at coarse resolution. Here, using global storm-resolving simulations and machine learning, we show that, by implicitly learning subgrid organization, we can accurately predict precipitation variability and stochasticity with a low-dimensional set of latent variables. Using a neural network to parameterize coarse-grained precipitation, we find that the overall behavior of precipitation is reasonably predictable using large-scale quantities only; however, the neural network cannot predict the variability of precipitation (R 2 ~ 0.45) and underestimates precipitation extremes. The performance is significantly improved when the network is informed by our organization metric, correctly predicting precipitation extremes and spatial variability (R 2 ~ 0.9). The organization metric is implicitly learned by training the algorithm on a high-resolution precipitable water field, encoding the degree of subgrid organization. The organization metric shows large hysteresis, emphasizing the role of memory created by subgrid-scale structures. We demonstrate that this organization metric can be predicted as a simple memory process from information available at the previous time steps. These findings stress the role of organization and memory in accurate prediction of precipitation intensity and extremes and the necessity of parameterizing subgrid-scale convective organization in climate models to better project future changes of water cycle and extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA EOSDIS 20 Years of Data Usage and User Assessment in Support of Open Science Initiative

NASA EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS) has been distributing data to world-wide users free with open access. Since the launch of NASA’s Terra satellite in 1999, more than 10,000 distinct EOS data products have been archived and distributed by NASA-funded Earth Science data centers encompassed by the EOSDIS. As of September 30, 2022, more than 90 PB of data archived by EOSDIS have been made available to public users and during FY 2023 over 60 PB have been distributed to public users worldwide. Over these twenty and more years, it has shown significant increase in the distribution of various data products. This has been possible due to free and open access of the data thereby a step towards open science initiative. The purposes of this study are 1) to perform a comprehensive investigation of the archive and distribution patterns of EOSDIS data products for last 20 years, 2) to identify and characterize the global user community for those data, 3) analyze the increased demand for data products, 4) evaluate distribution of higher level products because those are the ones most frequently used in the studies of natural disasters by public users (those data requestors not involved directly in the production or validation of the data products.) and contribute globally to the advance scientific understanding of the Earth-Atmosphere Systems. Funded by the Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project, the ESDIS Metrics System (EMS) collects archive, distribution, and user information from EOSDIS data centers. The information (comprising all data products including heritage datasets going back to the 1990s) is stored in a relational database from which it can be analyzed in many ways. We present several metrics analyses that include data distribution patterns for all, as well as the most frequently requested data products; and user characterizations by country, domain, and Earth Science discipline (e.g., Land, Ocean, Cryosphere) of the requested products. Due to the enormous quantity of data handled by EOSDIS data centers and requirements of future data systems to archive increasing amounts of Earth Science data from future and current Earth Science missions effectively, the results of this study can provide insight on how the user communities have accessed the data and provide guidance for open science initiative.

Lalit Wanchoo↗
DOE OSTI2023

JUST-R metrics for considering energy justice in early-stage energy research

We report achieving sustainable decarbonization of the energy sector requires implementing and improving energy technologies while simultaneously managing sources of social inequity in the energy system. Centering energy justice, which has "the goal of achieving equity in both the social and economic participation in the energy system, while also remediating social, economic, and health burdens on those historically harmed by the energy system," in the transition to clean energy has become an increasingly urgent priority for social scientists, policymakers, and community activists alike. However, late-stage consideration of social impacts of energy technologies may result in identifying inequities only after substantial time, money, and effort have been expended on research and development (R&D). This issue is exemplified by concerns over environmental and human health impacts related to cobalt in lithium-ion batteries, which has spurred research into alternatives only after decades of R&D and the establishment of supply chains, infrastructure, and markets for cobalt-containing chemistries. Other examples include issues with land use and resource consumption related to first-generation biofuel feedstocks as well as occupational hazards and pollution associated with photovoltaics manufacturing. In all these cases, subsequent R&D to improve technologies or processes cannot undo the effects already experienced. Incorporating energy justice from the earliest stage of R&D will enable more just technology implementation, but integrating justice considerations into early-stage research is a challenge due to a lack of tools to assess and manage them. To fill this gap, we center early-stage research to develop the Justice Underpinning Science and Technology Research (JUST-R) metrics framework - energy justice metrics specifically targeted at early-stage researchers to assess their work on an immediate timescale. By applying these metrics to a case study focused on materials for next-generation photovoltaics, we highlight potential benefits and barriers to implementing this framework in early-stage research and discuss necessary institutional and individual actions needed for researchers to effectively leverage the tool to incorporate justice-focused criteria into R&D decision making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Brain‐age prediction: Systematic evaluation of site effects, and sample age range and size

Abstract Structural neuroimaging data have been used to compute an estimate of the biological age of the brain (brain‐age) which has been associated with other biologically and behaviorally meaningful measures of brain development and aging. The ongoing research interest in brain‐age has highlighted the need for robust and publicly available brain‐age models pre‐trained on data from large samples of healthy individuals. To address this need we have previously released a developmental brain‐age model. Here we expand this work to develop, empirically validate, and disseminate a pre‐trained brain‐age model to cover most of the human lifespan. To achieve this, we selected the best‐performing model after systematically examining the impact of seven site harmonization strategies, age range, and sample size on brain‐age prediction in a discovery sample of brain morphometric measures from 35,683 healthy individuals (age range: 5–90 years; 53.59% female). The pre‐trained models were tested for cross‐dataset generalizability in an independent sample comprising 2101 healthy individuals (age range: 8–80 years; 55.35% female) and for longitudinal consistency in a further sample comprising 377 healthy individuals (age range: 9–25 years; 49.87% female). This empirical examination yielded the following findings: (1) the accuracy of age prediction from morphometry data was higher when no site harmonization was applied; (2) dividing the discovery sample into two age‐bins (5–40 and 40–90 years) provided a better balance between model accuracy and explained age variance than other alternatives; (3) model accuracy for brain‐age prediction plateaued at a sample size exceeding 1600 participants. These findings have been incorporated into CentileBrain ( https://centilebrain.org/#/brainAGE2 ), an open‐science, web‐based platform for individualized neuroimaging metrics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Redefining precision interferometry and spectroscopy with high-performance optical interference coatings

High-performance optical interference coatings have transformed precision interferometry and spectroscopy by enabling unparalleled control over light–matter interactions. This review explores recent innovations in ion-beam sputtered amorphous dielectric, as well as substrate-transferred crystalline coatings, and their impact on systems at the forefront of precision metrology. These state-of-the-art coating techniques generate multilayers with ultralow optical losses, yielding mirrors with exceptional reflectivity. Refinements in their noise performance push the ultimate limits of sensitivity, resolution, and stability in demanding laser-based metrology applications. These technologies underpin the most advanced timekeeping and spatial measurement tools, enabling high-finesse reference cavities for the world’s most precise optical atomic clocks and low-noise reflective test masses for km-baseline gravitational-wave detectors. Emerging hybrid designs combining these techniques expand access to the mid-infrared spectral region, enabling the first ultralow-optical-loss coatings in the 3000–5000 nm wavelength range for enhanced spectroscopy and trace-gas detection. We highlight how these technologies redefine coating performance metrics and set new benchmarks in quantum science, fundamental physics, and precision optical sensing.

Cole, Garrett D. [University of Arizona, Tucson, A↗
DOE OSTI2024

Justice Underpinning Science and Technology Research (JUST-R) Offline Tool: A Tool for Guiding Researchers in Addressing Energy Justice Considerations in Early-Stage Research

The Justice Underpinning Science and Technology Research (JUST-R) Metrics Framework is a set of metrics for assessing the energy justice implications of technologies that are currently under research and development (R&D). The JUST-R Metrics Framework guides researchers through an analysis of the many facets of their research processes, from material inputs to knowledge sources, that may contribute to energy injustice both during the research period and when the technology is scaled. This JUST-R Offline Tool consists of an Excel file and PDF guide to aid researchers, engineers, and project managers in their application of the JUST-R Metrics Framework. This tool enables researchers to 1) evaluate the baseline energy justice implications of their research; 2) develop justice-oriented changes to the research process; and 3) track the implementation of proposed changes. The metrics included in the framework are sorted into five aspects of research: Team Dynamics, Sources & Inputs, Processes & Protocols, Waste & Hazards, and Results & Dissemination. The JUST-R Tool can be found here: https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/just-r.html.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of global teleconnections in CMIP6 climate projections using complex networks

In climatological research, the evaluation of climate models is one of the central research subjects. As an expression of large-scale dynamical processes, global teleconnections play a major role in interannual to decadal climate variability. Their realistic representation is an indispensable requirement for the simulation of climate change, both natural and anthropogenic. Therefore, the evaluation of global teleconnections is of utmost importance when assessing the physical plausibility of climate projections. We present an application of the graph-theoretical analysis tool δ-MAPS, which constructs complex networks on the basis of spatio-temporal gridded data sets, here sea surface temperature and geopotential height at 500 hPa. Complex networks complement more traditional methods in the analysis of climate variability, like the classification of circulation regimes or empirical orthogonal functions, assuming a new non-linear perspective. While doing so, a number of technical tools and metrics, borrowed from different fields of data science, are implemented into the δ-MAPS framework in order to overcome specific challenges posed by our target problem. Those are trend empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), distance correlation and distance multicorrelation, and the structural similarity index. δ-MAPS is a two-stage algorithm. In the first place, it assembles grid cells with highly coherent temporal evolution into so-called domains. In a second step, the teleconnections between the domains are inferred by means of the non-linear distance correlation. We construct 2 unipartite and 1 bipartite network for 22 historical CMIP6 climate projections and 2 century-long coupled reanalyses (CERA-20C and 20CRv3). Potential non-stationarity is taken into account by the use of moving time windows. The networks derived from projection data are compared to those from reanalyses. Our results indicate that no single climate projection outperforms all others in every aspect of the evaluation. But there are indeed models which tend to perform better/worse in many aspects. Differences in model performance are generally low within the geopotential height unipartite networks but higher in sea surface temperature and most pronounced in the bipartite network representing the interaction between ocean and atmosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Survey of Titan Balloon Concepts and Technology Status

This paper surveys the options for, and technology status of, balloon vehicles to explore Saturn's moon Titan. A significant amount of Titan balloon concept thinking and technology development has been performed in recent years, particularly following the spectacular results from the descent and landing of the Huygens probe and remote sensing observations by the Cassini spacecraft. There is widespread recognition that a balloon vehicle on the next Titan mission could provide an outstanding and unmatched capability for in situ exploration on a global scale. The rich variety of revealed science targets has combined with a highly favorable Titan flight environment to yield a wide diversity of proposed balloon concepts. The paper presents a conceptual framework for thinking about balloon vehicle design choices and uses it to analyze various Titan options. The result is a list of recommended Titan balloon vehicle concepts that could perform a variety of science missions, along with their projected performance metrics. Recent technology developments for these balloon concepts are discussed to provide context for an assessment of outstanding risk areas and technological maturity. The paper concludes with suggestions for technology investments needed to achieve flight readiness.

balloon↗
NASA NTRS2020

Airborne Science Mission Capabilities of the NASA DC-8 and Possible Alternative Aircraft

Age-related concerns associated with operating the 50-year-old NASA Airborne Science Program DC-8 Flying Laboratory aircraft are raising concerns about the prospects of someday retiring the NASA DC-8. Given that eventuality, this study examines how current and anticipated science requirements can be incorporated with aeronautical performance and cost metrics for assessing, comparing, and down-selecting candidate replacement aircraft. A literature review of NASA DC-8 missions and interviews with current DC-8 science users provides context for the initial phase of this study and offers a pathway for collecting aircraft specifications. Performance models are developed and calibrated against published range-payload data for various mission fuel and payload weight combinations. The models are extended to three airborne science missions, with payload weights ranging from 30,000-52,000 lb and mission ranges up to 5,050 nmi. Results point towards the 767-200ER aircraft as a top contender offering a bit more experimenter floor-space, payload capacity, and range than the NASA DC-8, and to the U.S. Navy P-8 aircraft as a viable option offering perhaps not too much less of those items, with the relative benefit of using less fuel per mission.

Thomas A Ozoroski↗
NASA NTRS2017

Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using LANTR Propulsion and In-Situ Propellants Derived From Lunar Polar Ice (LPI) Deposits

Since the 1960s, scientists have conjectured that water icecould survive in the cold, permanently shadowed craters located at the Moons poles Clementine (1994), Lunar Prospector (1998),Chandrayaan-1 (2008), and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite(LCROSS) (2009) lunar probes have provided data indicating the existence of large quantities of water ice at the lunar poles The Mini-SAR onboard Chandrayaan-1discovered more than 40 permanently shadowed craters near the lunar north pole that are thought to contain 600 million metric tons of water ice. Using neutron spectrometer data, the Lunar Prospector science team estimated a water ice content (1.5 +-0.8 wt in the regolith) found in the Moons polar cold trap sand estimated the total amount of water at both poles at 2 billion metric tons Using Mini-RF and spectrometry data, the LRO LCROSS science team estimated the water ice content in the regolith in the south polar region to be 5.6 +-2.9 wt. On the basis of the above scientific data, it appears that the water ice content can vary from 1-10 wt and the total quantity of LPI at both poles can range from 600 million to 2 billion metric tons NTP offers significant benefits for lunar missions and can take advantage of the leverage provided from using LDPs when they become available by transitioning to LANTR propulsion. LANTR provides a variablethrust and Isp capability, shortens burn times and extends engine life, and allows bipropellant operation The combination of LANTR and LDP has performance capability equivalent to that of a hypothetical gaseousfuel core NTR (effective Isp 1575 s) and can lead to a robust LTS with unique mission capabilities that include short transit time crewed cargo transports and routine commuter flights to the Moon The biggest challenge to making this vision a reality will be the production of increasing amounts of LDP andthe development of propellant depots in LEO, LLO and LPO. An industry-operated, privately financed venture, with NASA as its initial customer, might provide a possible blueprint for future development and operation With industry interested in developing cislunar space and commerce, and competitive forces at work, the timeline for developing this capability could well be accelerated, quicker than any of us can imagine, and just the beginning of things to come.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗
DOE OSTI2026

LDRD FY25 Program Overview

As Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL’s) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program enters its fifth decade of leading-edge research and development, its impact and importance have never been stronger. The program continues to advance strategic investments in pioneering science, technology, and engineering, ensuring LLNL will be ready to deliver on our mission as it evolves over the coming decades. Investing in LDRD research, and the people who perform this critical work, gives LLNL the ability to sustain our role as a leader in the Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration enterprise. The LDRD program enables high-risk, high-payoff research that anticipates emerging threats and future mission needs. By nurturing the ingenuity of the Lab’s greatest asset, its people, LDRD funding advances not only our research but also grows and nurtures our workforce: engaging future innovators with student mentoring, challenging postdoctoral researchers to apply their skills to support national security, and strengthening the leadership skills of early career staff. This annual report documents how LDRD investments advance LLNL’s science, technology, and engineering across our mission space. To assess LDRD’s impact we track both short and long-term metrics such as peer-reviewed publications, number of students, or professional fellows. In addition to reviewing these metrics, I encourage you to delve deeper into the breadth of science and technology that illustrate the strategic value of this research portfolio. For instance, a recent exploratory research project used advanced manufacturing to construct miniaturized three-dimensional ion traps for a quantum computer with reduced quantum error rates to enable applications that address national security missions and support basic science. Another project has delved into studying detonation by examining deflagration to enhance the safety and security of the nuclear weapons stockpile. LDRD researchers are also deploying AI agents on two of the world’s most powerful supercomputers to automate and accelerate inertial confinement fusion experiments. Other teams are delivering more accurate optical constants to enable improved validation for aluminum to advance atomic and molecular physics models. LDRD-driven discoveries of how metals deform under extreme conditions strengthen our ability to model and design materials for demanding national security environments. National security challenges are increasingly complex and continuously evolving. LDRD focuses our most innovative science and technology on these challenges, ensuring the Laboratory is developing creative, forward-leaning solutions for our nation and the world. The following pages feature highlights of published scientific advances, patents, and honors that stem from LDRD investments. As you read this report, I hope you will understand how these investments position the Laboratory, and our partners, to meet the demands of the decades ahead.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Translating dosimetry of Dibenzo[ def,p ]chrysene (DBC) and metabolites across dose and species using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling

We report that Dibenzo[def,p]chrysene (DBC) is an environmental polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) that causes tumors in mice and has been classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Animal toxicity studies often utilize higher doses than are found in relevant human exposures. Additionally, like many PAHs, DBC requires metabolic bioactivation to form the ultimate toxicant, and species differences in DBC and DBC metabolite metabolism have been observed. To understand the implications of dose and species differences, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model (PBPK) for DBC and major metabolites was developed in mice and humans. Metabolism parameters used in the model were obtained from experimental in vitro metabolism assays using mice and human hepatic microsomes. PBPK model simulations were evaluated against mice dosed with 15 mg/kg DBC by oral gavage and human volunteers orally microdosed with 29 ng of DBC. DBC and its primary metabolite DBC-11,12-diol were measured in blood of mice and humans, while in urine, the majority of DBC metabolites were obeserved as conjugated DBC-11,12-diol, conjugated DBC tetrols, and unconjugated DBC tetrols. The PBPK model was able to predict the time course concentrations of DBC, DBC-11,12-diol, and other DBC metabolites in blood and urine of human volunteers and mice with reasonable accuracy. Agreement between model simulations and measured pharmacokinetic data in mice and human studies demonstrate the success and versatility of our model for interspecies extrapolation and applicability for different doses. Furthermore, our simulations show that internal dose metrics used for risk assessment do not necessarily scale allometrically, and that PBPK modeling provides a reliable approach to appropriately account for interspecies differences in metabolism and physiology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of probabilistic photometric redshift estimation approaches for The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

Many scientific investigations of photometric galaxy surveys require redshift estimates, whose uncertainty properties are best encapsulated by photometric redshift (photo-z) posterior probability density functions (PDFs). A plethora of photo-z PDF estimation methodologies abound, producing discrepant results with no consensus on a preferred approach. We present the results of a comprehensive experiment comparing twelve photo-z algorithms applied to mock data produced forLarge Synoptic Survey Telescope The Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (lsst) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (desc). By supplying perfect prior information, in the form of the complete template library and a representative training set as inputs to each code, we demonstrate the impact of the assumptions underlying each technique on the output photo-z PDFs. In the absence of a notion of true, unbiased photo-z PDFs, we evaluate and interpret multiple metrics of the ensemble properties of the derived photo-z PDFs as well as traditional reductions to photo-z point estimates. Additionally, we report systematic biases and overall over/under-breadth of the photo-z PDFs of many popular codes, which may indicate avenues for improvement in the algorithms or implementations. Furthermore, we raise attention to the limitations of established metrics for assessing photo-z PDF accuracy; though we identify the conditional density estimate (CDE) loss as a promising metric of photo-z PDF performance in the case where true redshifts are available but true photo-z PDFs are not, we emphasize the need for science-specific performance metrics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗