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At least 91 records · Page 5

Geometric remapping of particle distributions in the Discrete Element Model for Sea Ice (DEMSI v0.0)

Abstract. A new sea ice dynamical core, the Discrete Element Model for Sea Ice (DEMSI), is under development for use in coupled Earth system models. DEMSI is based on the discrete element method, which models collections of ice floes as interacting Lagrangian particles. In basin-scale sea ice simulations the Lagrangian motion results in significant convergence and ridging, which requires periodic remapping of sea ice variables from a deformed particle configuration back to an undeformed initial distribution. At the resolution required for Earth system models we cannot resolve individual sea ice floes, so we adopt the sub-grid-scale thickness distribution used in continuum sea ice models. This choice leads to a series of hierarchical tracers depending on ice fractional area or concentration that must be remapped consistently. The circular discrete elements employed in DEMSI help improve the computational efficiency at the cost of increased complexity in the effective element area definitions for sea ice cover that are required for the accurate enforcement of conservation. An additional challenge is the accurate remapping of element values along the ice edge, the location of which varies due to the Lagrangian motion of the particles. In this paper we describe a particle-to-particle remapping approach based on well-established geometric remapping ideas that enforces conservation, bounds preservation, and compatibility between associated tracer quantities, while also robustly managing remapping at the ice edge. One element of the remapping algorithm is a novel optimization-based flux correction that enforces concentration bounds in the case of nonuniform motion. We demonstrate the accuracy and utility of the algorithm in a series of numerical test cases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Observing Arctic Sea Ice

Our understanding of Arctic sea ice and its wide-ranging influence is deeply rooted in observation. Advancing technologies have profoundly improved our ability to observe Arctic sea ice, document its processes and properties, and describe atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions with unprecedented detail. Yet, our progress toward better understanding the Arctic sea ice system is mired by the stark disparities between observations that tend to be siloed by method, scientific discipline, and application. This article presents a review and philosophical design for observing sea ice and accelerating our understanding of the Arctic sea ice system. We give a brief history of Arctic sea ice observations and showcase the 2018 melt season within the context of five observational themes: spatial heterogeneity, temporal variability, cross-disciplinary science, scalability, and retrieval uncertainty. We synthesize buoy data, optical imagery, satellite retrievals, and airborne measurements to demonstrate how disparate data sets can be woven together to transcend observational-scale issues. The results show that there are limitations to interpreting any single data set alone. However, many of these limitations can be surmounted by combining observations that cross spatial and temporal scales. We conclude the article with pathways toward coordinating across observational platforms in order to: (1) optimize the scientific, operational, and community return on observational investments, and (2) facilitate a richer understanding of Arctic sea ice and its role in the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unprecedented Beaufort Sea ice loss in late summer 2021 and its relationship to an extended period of unusually stormy weather

Previous case studies have linked cyclone-induced atmospheric forcing and/or upper-ocean processes to notable Arctic sea ice loss events in the summers of 2012 and 2016. This study examines a more recent and noteworthy case in late summer 2021 in which substantial sea ice loss followed a period of surface meteorological extremes in the Beaufort Sea region of the Arctic. We focus on the period from mid-August to mid-September 2021 that coincided with the Office of Naval Research THINICE Pilot Field Campaign and investigate stormy and windy conditions with respect to air-sea processes impacting sea ice conditions. We find that during the stormy first half of the campaign, cyclone-induced energy fluxes into the marginal ice zone and surrounding waters preconditioned the ice pack for more rapid melt later in the campaign. The second half of the campaign, in contrast, was marked by non-cyclone wind events that enhanced turbulent (namely sensible) heat fluxes into the ice and upper ocean that increased melt. Moreover, this latter period had enhanced advection of the Beaufort Sea ice pack into above-freezing waters, increasing bottom melt to >1 cm d −1 over the remainder of the campaign. While findings are shown to vary by surface type and at relatively small (i.e. ice-floe) scales, insights are offered on the roles of late summer coupled processes on rapid ice loss events in today’s Arctic environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cosmogenic surface exposure ( 10 Be) dating of raised beaches in Marguerite bay, Antarctic Peninsula: Implications for relative sea-level history

Understanding the dynamics of ice mass loss in polar regions is crucial for deciphering climate change and Glacio Isostatic Adjustment patterns. This study focuses on Marguerite Bay, located in the south-central Antarctic Peninsula. We dated raised beaches to investigate relative sea-level changes using the cosmogenic surface exposure ( 10 Be) method. Previous studies have provided valuable insights into the region's glacial history, but limitations in dating techniques and age estimates necessitate further investigation. By analysing raised shingle beaches in Gaul Cove of Horseshoe Island and the southern coast of Calmette Bay, this research aims to contribute relative sea-level change history for these areas. In Horseshoe Island's Gaul Cove, raised beaches clustered on prominent steps reveal a 15 m relative sea-level change over the last 3.31 ka. Differently, Calmette Bay exhibits a 36 m relative sea-level fall over the last 7.29 ka. Finally, these findings indicate significant and differential glacial-isostatic adjustments in both regions during the middle and late Holocene. Additionally, our data reveal accelerated sea-level fall periods corresponding to Holocene deglaciation and glacial advance events, indicating the shorelines' relative sea-level change sensitivity to climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Emergent Relationships Among Sea Ice, Longwave Radiation, and the Beaufort High Circulation Exposed Through Parameter Uncertainty Analysis

Using a perturbed parameter ensemble of a coupled climate model, emerging relationships are identified between sea ice area, net surface longwave radiation, and the atmospheric circulation over the Beaufort gyre. There is a strong positive correlation between sea ice area and the net longwave radiation over the ocean-ice surface during the melting season and a negative correlation during the freezing season. The mechanisms responsible for the longwave radiation balance at the surface are mainly driven by sea ice variations in the freezing season and by clouds in the melting season. A strong positive (negative) correlation is also found between the fall (summer) total sea ice area in the Arctic and the sea level pressure over the Beaufort High region. It is argued that as sea ice coverage is lost, static stability losses are severe in fall, resulting in enhanced evaporation, vertical motions, and weakening of the general large-scale anticyclonic circulation of the Beaufort High.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unsteady Land-Sea Breeze Circulations in the Presence of a Synoptic Pressure Forcing

Unsteady land-sea breezes (LSBs) that result from time-varying surface temperature contrasts Δθ(t) are explored in the presence of a constant synoptic pressure forcing, M g , oriented from sea to land (α = 0°) or land to sea (α = 180°). Large eddy simulations reveal the development of four distinctive regimes, depending on the joint interaction between M g , α, and Δθ(t) in modulating the fine-scale dynamics. Time lags, computed as the shifts that maximize correlation coefficients of the velocity between the unsteady and the corresponding steady scenarios at Δθ = Δθ max , are found to be significant and to extend 2 hr longer for α = 0° compared to α = 180°. These diurnal dynamics result in nonequilibrium conditions that are significantly affected by the flow history, and that behave differently over the two patches for the different α’s. Turbulence is found to be out of equilibrium with the mean flow, and the mean itself is found to be out of equilibrium with the thermal forcing. The sea surface heat flux is consistently more sensitive than its land counterpart to the time-varying external forcing Δθ(t), and more so for synoptic forcing from land to sea (α = 180°). Hence, although the land reaches equilibrium faster, the sea patch is found to exert a stronger control on the turbulence-mean flow equilibrium response. Finally, the vertical velocity profile at the shore and shore-normal velocity transects at the first grid level are shown to encode the multiscale regimes of the LSBs evolution and can thus be used to identify these regimes using k-means clustering.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sea-level rise in Southwest Greenland as a contributor to Viking abandonment

The first records of Greenland Vikings date to 985 CE. Archaeological evidence yields insight into how Vikings lived, yet drivers of their disappearance in the 15th century remain enigmatic. Research suggests a combination of environmental and socioeconomic factors, and the climatic shift from the Medieval Warm Period (~900 to 1250 CE) to the Little Ice Age (~1250 to 1900 CE) may have forced them to abandon Greenland. Glacial geomorphology and paleoclimate research suggest that the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet readvanced during Viking occupation, peaking in the Little Ice Age. Counterintuitively, the readvance caused sea-level rise near the ice margin due to increased gravitational attraction toward the ice sheet and crustal subsidence. We estimate ice growth in Southwestern Greenland using geomorphological indicators and lake core data from previous literature. We calculate the effect of ice growth on regional sea level by applying our ice history to a geophysical model of sea level with a resolution of ~1 km across Southwestern Greenland and compare the results to archaeological evidence. The results indicate that sea level rose up to ~3.3 m outside the glaciation zone during Viking settlement, producing shoreline retreat of hundreds of meters. Sea-level rise was progressive and encompassed the entire Eastern Settlement. Moreover, pervasive flooding would have forced abandonment of many coastal sites. These processes likely contributed to the suite of vulnerabilities that led to Viking abandonment of Greenland. Sea-level change thus represents an integral, missing element of the Viking story.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impact of coupled air–sea interaction on extreme East Asian summer monsoon simulation in CMIP5 models

Abstract In this study, the relationship between the ability to simulate air–sea interactions over the western North Pacific (WNP), and to reproduce the extreme East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), were investigated by comparing the performances of several global climate models (GCMs). High ranked in air–sea interaction simulation (HRA) and low ranked in air–sea interaction simulation (LRA) models were selected, according to their performance in simulating relations between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation over the WNP, from the ensemble of models that participated in the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3, CMIP5). Compared with CMIP3 models, CMIP5 models exhibited improved simulations of the distinctive air–sea interaction over the WNP, namely, the strong atmospheric forcing on the ocean. Among CMIP5 models, HRA models, which reproduced intrinsic negative correlations between precipitation and SST over the WNP, could simulate the extreme EASM better than LRA models. In particular, HRA models generated a more realistic spatial distribution of the extreme EASM compared with LRA models. The defects of the LRA models resulted from distorted synoptic fields, including underestimated geopotential height and overestimated low‐level wind over the WNP, inducing unrealistic moisture supply and convection due to the exaggerated SST forcing. In contrast, reasonable air–sea interactions represented in HRA models lead to realistic synoptic fields over the WNP, and proper simulation of the extreme EASM.

Kim, Taehyung↗

Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Abstract We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 10 6 km 2 ) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.

Notz, Dirk↗

Hidden Production: On the Importance of Pelagic Phytoplankton Blooms Beneath Arctic Sea Ice

Abstract Recent observations suggest that substantial phytoplankton blooms occur under sea ice on Arctic continental shelves during June and July. This is opposed to the traditional view that no significant biomass is produced in sea‐ice covered waters. However, no observational estimates are available on the Arctic‐wide primary production beneath sea ice. Here, using a fully coupled Arctic system model, we estimate that 63%/41% of the total primary production in the central Arctic occurs in waters covered by sea ice that is ≥50%/≥85% concentration. The total primary production there is increasing at a rate of 5.2% per decade during 1980–2018. Increased light transmission, due to the removal of sea ice, more extensive melt ponds, and thinner sea ice, is implicated as the main cause of increasing trends in primary production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Winter Heat Conduction Through the Sea Ice System During MOSAiC

Abstract Models struggle to accurately simulate observed sea ice thickness changes, which could be partially due to inadequate representation of thermodynamic processes. We analyzed co‐located winter observations of the Arctic sea ice from the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate for evaluating and improving thermodynamic processes in sea ice models, aiming to enable more accurate predictions of the warming climate system. We model the sea ice and snow heat conduction for observed transects forced by realistic boundary conditions to understand the impact of the non‐resolved meter‐scale snow and sea ice thickness heterogeneity on horizontal heat conduction. Neglecting horizontal processes causes underestimating the conductive heat flux of 10% or more. Furthermore, comparing model results to independent temperature observations reveals a ∼5 K surface temperature overestimation over ice thinner than 1 m, attributed to shortcomings in parameterizing surface turbulent and radiative fluxes rather than the conduction. Assessing the model deficiencies and parameterizing these unresolved processes is required for improved sea ice representation.

Geology↗

Investigating Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Near–Surface Wind Speed Changes Related to Surface Roughness Using the Community Earth System Model

The Arctic is undergoing a pronounced and rapid transformation in response to changing greenhouse gasses, including reduction in sea ice extent and thickness. There are also projected increases in near-surface Arctic wind. This study addresses how the winds trends may be driven by changing surface roughness and/or stability in different Arctic regions and seasons, something that has not yet been thoroughly investigated. We analyze 50 experiments from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and five experiments using CESM2 with an artificially decreased sea ice roughness to match that of the open ocean. We find that with a smoother surface there are higher mean wind speeds and slower mean ice speeds in the autumn, winter, and spring. The artificially reduced surface roughness also strongly impacts the wind speed trends in autumn and winter, and we find that atmospheric stability changes are also important contributors to driving wind trends in both experiments. In contrast to the clear impacts on winds, the sea ice mean state and trends are statistically indistinguishable, suggesting that near-surface winds are not major drivers of Arctic sea ice loss. Two major results of this work are: (a) the near-surface wind trends are driven by changes in both surface roughness and near-surface atmospheric stability that are themselves changing from sea ice loss, and (b) the sea ice mean state and trends are driven by the overall warming trend due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions and not significantly impacted by coupled feedbacks with the surface winds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

More frequent atmospheric rivers slow the seasonal recovery of Arctic sea ice

In recent decades, Arctic sea ice coverage experienced a drastic decline in winter, when sea ice is expected to recover following the melting season. It is unclear to what extent atmospheric processes such as atmospheric rivers (ARs), intense corridors of moisture transport, contribute to this reduced recovery of sea ice. Here, in this study, using observations and climate model simulations we find a robust frequency increase in ARs in early winter over the Barents-Kara Seas and the central Arctic (ABK) between 1979 and 2021. The moisture carried by more frequent ARs has intensified surface downward longwave radiation and rainfall, caused stronger melting of thin, fragile ice cover, and slowed the seasonal recovery of sea ice, accounting for 34% of the sea ice cover decline in ABK. A series of model ensemble experiments suggests that, in addition to a uniform AR increase in response to anthropogenic warming, tropical Pacific variability also contributes to the observed Arctic AR changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of modelled passive margin stratigraphy to variations in sea level, sediment supply and subsidence

Abstract We produced a 10 Myr synthetic stratigraphic section using a forward stratigraphic model that generates marine deltaic stratigraphy over geological timescales. We recursively fit the model using a Bayesian inversion algorithm to test: (1) if it could be accurately reconstructed; (2) if the parameters used to create it could be recovered; and (3) the sensitivity of the model output to given model parameters and the attendant physical processes. The original synthetic stratigraphic section was produced with cyclical sea‐level variations of 40 and 30 m with 2.4 and 10 Myr periods respectively. Sediment was also supplied cyclically, in 2.4 and 10 Myr cycles with amplitudes of 30 and 80 tons/100 kyr, respectively, varying from a mean of 232 tons/100 kyr. Parameter values were sampled to fit the model using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, resulting in a ±5 m (1σ) variation between the experimental output and the original. Sea level varied by ±7 m (1σ) within the posterior distribution of parameters. As a result, both the 10 Myr and 2.4 Myr sea‐level cycles could be extracted from the original output. The variation in sediment supply was approximately ±38 tons/100 kyr (1σ) and, as a result, only the larger long‐term supply variations could be accurately recovered in refitting the model. The variation in thermal, flexural and total subsidence across those parameter sets is less than ±10 m (1σ). The original section experienced 150 m of total subsidence at the depocentre. Our results demonstrate the distinct and interpretable imprint of sea level and subsidence on continental margin stratigraphy can be quantified. Moreover, we conclude that sea‐level change produces a defined effect on the geometries of stratigraphic architecture, and that techniques applied for the purpose of delineating sea‐level variation from continental margin strata have a well‐founded conceptual basis.

Schmelz, William J.↗

Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison

This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Separating the Influences of Low-Latitude Warming and Sea Ice Loss on Northern Hemisphere Climate Change

Abstract Analyzing a multimodel ensemble of coupled climate model simulations forced with Arctic sea ice loss using a two-parameter pattern-scaling technique to remove the cross-coupling between low- and high-latitude responses, the sensitivity to high-latitude sea ice loss is isolated and contrasted to the sensitivity to low-latitude warming. Despite some differences in experimental design, the Northern Hemisphere near-surface atmospheric sensitivity to sea ice loss is found to be robust across models in the cold season; however, a larger intermodel spread is found at the surface in boreal summer, and in the free tropospheric circulation. In contrast, the sensitivity to low-latitude warming is most robust in the free troposphere and in the warm season, with more intermodel spread in the surface ocean and surface heat flux over the Northern Hemisphere. The robust signals associated with sea ice loss include upward turbulent and longwave heat fluxes where sea ice is lost, warming and freshening of the Arctic Ocean, warming of the eastern North Pacific Ocean relative to the western North Pacific with upward turbulent heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, and salinification of the shallow shelf seas of the Arctic Ocean alongside freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the robust signals associated with low-latitude warming include intensified ocean warming and upward latent heat fluxes near the western boundary currents, freshening of the Pacific Ocean, salinification of the North Atlantic, and downward sensible and longwave fluxes over the ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea Breeze Influence on Aerosols and Convection in the Southeastern US

The goal of this research is to describe the inland penetrating sea breeze and interactions with atmospheric phenomena across multiple scales, thereby establishing a baseline of understanding. The land-ocean-atmosphere interface in the southeastern US drives regional sea breeze circulations that impact clouds, convection, and precipitation. We analyzed a variety of atmospheric observations to identify the characteristics and frequency of sea breezes. Sea breezes were identified all along the southeastern Atlantic coast (63% of days from March to September in 2019) at times impacting large areas of the southeastern US. They were found to penetrate inland to the Savannah River Site on about 27% of all days during the typical sea breeze season (March to October) from 2015 to 2020, often leaving a residual layer the following day. Future work focuses on modeling studies, analysis of additional data, and climate impacts on sea breezes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Diversity and Distribution of Hydrocarbon-Degrading Genes in the Cold Seeps from the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas

Marine cold seeps are unique ecological niches characterized by the emergence of hydrocarbons, including methane, which fosters diverse microbial communities. This study investigates the diversity and distribution of hydrocarbon-degrading genes and organisms in sediments from the Caspian and Mediterranean Seas, utilizing 16S rRNA and metagenomic sequencing to elucidate microbial community structure and functional potential. Our findings reveal distinct differences in hydrocarbon degrading gene profiles between the two seas, with pathways for aerobic and anaerobic hydrocarbon degradation co-existing in sediments from both basins. Aerobic pathways predominate in the surface sediments of the Mediterranean Sea, while anaerobic pathways are favored in the surface sediments of the anoxic Caspian Sea. Additionally, sediment depths significantly influence microbial diversity, with variations in gene abundance and community composition observed at different depths. Aerobic hydrocarbon-degrading genes decrease in diversity with depth in the Mediterranean Sea, whereas the diversity of aerobic hydrocarbon-degrading genes increases with depth in the Caspian Sea. These results enhance our understanding of microbial ecology in cold seep environments and have implications for bioremediation practices targeting hydrocarbon pollutants in marine ecosystems.

Microbiology↗