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At least 91 records · Page 5

Clear Lake Volcanic Field Disasters: Creating a Deformation Record Using InSAR to Assess Hazards and Detect Volcanic Unrest in Clear Lake Volcanic Field

Clear Lake Volcanic Field (CLVF) in northern California is at a high threat potential for volcanic hazards. Eruptions leading to increased seismic activity could result in silicic domes, cinder cones, and flows that would be dangerous to the residential areas near the volcanic field. Remotely sensed Earth observations can reveal volcanic processes in the subsurface, which are essential to the timely monitoring of potential volcanic activity. In particular, Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data capture relative surface deformation at unprecedented high spatial and temporal resolutions. Leveraging C-SAR and DEMs, we conducted interferometric analysis from January 2016 to December 2023. Our results demonstrate 1) the mean surface displacement velocity of the Clear Lake Volcanic Field is measured to undergo 5 to 10-centimeter scale deformation and shows a strong relationship with the surrounding faults, 2) apparent seasonal differences in rates of surface change, and 3) seismic activity associated with the geyser geothermal field has a strong association with cumulative surface displacement, with active fault zones having 2 to 5 cm of additional displacement. Results indicate that deformation is linked to deep pressure sources causing stresses on the surficial environment that should be considered in hazard mitigation. This study provides a baseline of historic deformation, aiding hazard analysts in communication efforts and streamlining decision-making for potential risks to region residents.

remote sensing↗

Creating a Deformation Time Series Utilizing InSAR to Assess Hazards and Detect Volcanic Unrest in Clear Lake Volcanic Field, California

According to the U.S Geological Survey, the Clear Lake Volcanic Field (CLVF) in northern California is at a high threat potential for volcanic hazards. Eruptions leading to increased seismic activity could result in silicic domes, cinder cones, and flows that would be dangerous to the residential areas near the volcanic field. Remotely sensed Earth observations can reveal volcanic processes in the subsurface, which are essential to the timely monitoring of potential volcanic activity. In particular, Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data capture relative surface deformation at unprecedented high spatial and temporal resolutions. Leveraging C-SAR and DEMs, we conducted interferometric analysis from January 2016 to December 2023. Our results demonstrate 1) the mean surface displacement velocity of the Clear Lake Volcanic field is measured to undergo 5 to 10-centimeter scale deformation and shows a strong correlation with the surrounding faults, 2) apparent seasonal differences in rates of surface change, and 3) seismic activity associated with the geyser geothermal field has a strong correlation with cumulative surface displacement, with active fault zones having 2 to 5 cm of additional displacement. Results indicate that deformation is linked to deep pressure sources causing stresses on the surficial environment that should be considered in hazard mitigation. This study provides a baseline of historic deformation, aiding hazard analysts in communication efforts and streamlining decision-making for potential risks to region residents.

Ivan Tochimani-Hernandez↗

SAEVe: A Long Duration Small Sat Class Venus Lander - Seismic and Atmospheric Exploration of Venus

NASA's science mission directorate has put increasing emphasis on innovative, smaller, and lower cost missions to achieve their science objectives. One example of this was the recent call by the Planetary Science Division for cube and small satellite concepts expected to cost $100M or less, not including launch and weighing less than 180kg. Over 100 proposals were submitted suggesting that indeed this is a size of mission worthy of being considered in future planning. Nineteen missions were selected for study, one being a long-lived Venus mission called SAEVe, for Seismic and Atmospheric Exploration of Venus. The science objectives and relevance of SAEVe include: Is Venus seismically active? What can we learn about its crust (thickness and composition) and its interior (lithosphere, mantle, and core)? What can be learned about its evolutionary history or about the planet / atmosphere interactions? SAEVe begins to address these science questions with simple, but capable, instrumented probes that can survive on the surface of Venus and take temporal measurements over months something never attempted before. The data returned will further our understanding of the solar system and Earth, and aid in meeting the NASA Science Plan goal to ascertain the content, origin, and evolution of the solar system and the chemical and physical processes in our solar system. SAEVe is delivered to Venus as a ride-along on another mission to Venus. Its two small probes are placed into the Venus atmosphere via a single Stardust-like entry capsule, are ejected at different times, free fall, and decelerate in the thickening atmosphere to touchdown under 8 m/s2 or less. The probes will begin taking measurements and transmitting important parameters at or near the surface and will focus on measurements like seismic activity, heat flux, wind speed and direction, basic chemical abundances, temperature, and pressure. At preset intervals, the probes acquire the science measurements and beam the data to the orbiting host spacecraft. SAEVe will serve as a highly capable precursor and pave the way for larger and more complex lander missions to explore Venus.

lander↗

Hydrogen Transportation and Distributed Energy Systems Seismic Risk Assessment for Cascadia Subduction Zone Airport Facilities

Portland International Airport in Oregon is exploring operating a fleet of 28 fuel cell electric buses to support airport operations and possibly provide backup power during outages. In this report, we evaluate the risk of hydrogen deployment at an airport considering the potential for seismic activity. We present a seismic risk assessment for pressurized piping for a generic hydrogen refueling station at the airport. Only pressurized piping was considered in the risk analysis because of its vulnerability and availability of fragility information unlike the other components. Seismic capacity of other components should be included as more information becomes available.

08 HYDROGEN↗

​​Hydrogen Transportation and Distributed Energy Systems Seismic Risk Assessment for Cascadia Subduction Zone Airport Facilities​

Portland International Airport in Oregon is exploring operating a fleet of 28 fuel cell electric buses to support airport operations and possibly provide backup power during outages. In this report, we evaluate the risk of hydrogen deployment at an airport considering the potential for seismic activity. We present a seismic risk assessment for pressurized piping for a generic hydrogen refueling station at the airport. Only pressurized piping was considered in the risk analysis because of its vulnerability and availability of fragility information unlike the other components. Seismic capacity of other components should be included as more information becomes available. To characterize the seismic hazard, we considered the initiating event frequency of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake event based on data from the literature. Seismic stressors that translate to the site from an earthquake event are expressed as peak ground acceleration. Site disturbance is characterized as a function of soil conditions, represented by different shear wave velocity values, which affect how seismic waves propagate and impact structures. Pipe fragility curves as a function of seismic capacity were used to correlate ground acceleration and failure probability. These fragility characteristics were combined with site-specific soil conditions to calculate the probability of pipe rupture during a seismic event. It should be noted that multiple simultaneous failures due to an earthquake event as a common cause are not considered. Some epistemic uncertainties such as self-exciting shocks, aftershocks, and the time variant nature of the ground motion are not considered either.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Seismicity and active tectonics of the Andes and the origin of the Altiplano

Large earthquakes and active deformation on the Andes were studied. Earthquakes on the east side of the Andes were generally found to reflect east-west crustal shortening. These earthquakes seem to occur throughout the crust and do not reflect a detachment and low angle thrusting of the sedimentary cover onto the Brazilian shield. Instead they imply deformation of the basement. The rate of shortening is compatible with construction of the Andes by crustal shortening since the late Cretaceous, and the surface geology, at least qualitatively, is considered to reflect this process. Andean margins are considered to be a result of crustal shortening. The crustal shortening in the sub-Andes occurs concurrently with normal faulting at high elevations in parts of the Andes. The normal faulting is associated with the buoyancy of the thick crust. Crustal shortening thickens the crust and work is done against gravity. When the crustal thickness and elevation reach limiting values, the range grows laterally by further thrusting on the margins.

Molnar, P.↗

Preliminary Approach to Assess the Seismic Hazard on a Lunar Site

The passive seismic network deployed on the Moon during the Apollo missions operated for eight years and allowed the observation of seismic activity. More than 12500 seismic events were registered, where 28 were classified as shallow moonquakes with moment magnitudes up to 4.1. Seismic events of this nature pose a significant risk to future long-term lunar habitats; thus, these events must be carefully studied and considered in the seismic design of these structures. This paper proposes a preliminary seismic hazard assessment imposed by shallow moonquakes. The hazard assessment is performed using the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) methodology, considering previous studies and theories regarding the seismic environment of the Moon. The study zone covers ~860 km2 of the Taurus-Littrow Valley, containing the Apollo 17 landing site and the Lee-Lincoln lobate scarp as the considered seismic source. The seismic hazard is quantified in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (5% damped pseudo-acceleration, PSA). Seismic hazard deaggregation scenarios, Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) for different hazard levels, and a Conditional Mean Spectrum (CMS) for a target period of 0.2 s are obtained to quantify the seismic hazard on a specific site on the Moon. The developed seismic hazard assessment provides a preliminary approach for realistic scenarios to conduct structural designs that ensure the seismic performance of fully operational long-term lunar structures.

Moonquake↗

Delegated Regressor, A Robust Approach for Automated Anomaly Detection in the Soil Radon Time Series Data

We propose a new method based on the idea of delegating regressors for predicting the soil radon gas concentration (SRGC) and anomalies in radon or any other time series data. The proposed method is compared to different traditional boosting e.g., Extreme Gradient Boosting (EGB) and simple regression methods e.g., support vector regressors with linear kernel and radial kernel in terms of accurate predictions. R language has been used for the statistical analysis of radon time series (RTS) data. The results obtained show that the proposed methodology predicts SRGC more accurately when compared to different traditional boosting and regression methods. The best correlation is found between the actual and predicted radon concentration for window size of 2 i.e., two days before and after the start of seismic activities. RTS data was collected from 05 February 2017 to 16 February 2018, including 7 seismic events recorded during the study period. Findings of study show that the proposed methodology predicts the SRGC with more precision, for all the window sizes, by overlapping predicted with the actual radon time series concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seismic H2: Version 1.0

Seismic-H2 is an integrated software package for geological hydrogen reservoir simulation, optimization, and leakage monitoring. The package includes multiple components: (1) code used for modeling seismic wave propagation in 3D heterogeneous elastic media based on finite-difference method to support detection of geological hydrogen storage reservoir leakage; (2) 3D reservoir simulations of leaks from an underground reservoir and 3D simulations of saline aquifers and depleted gas reservoirs; (3) seismic monitoring costs of passive and active seismic monitoring required for UHS; (4) rock physics calculations and interpolations for converting the reservoir simulations from part (2) into the elastic media models in part (1); (5) pre-processing seismic data; and lastly (6), a GUI interface that combines these different components.

Creasy, Neala↗

Creation of a Mixed-Mode Fracture Network at Mesoscale Through Hydraulic Fracturing and Shear Stimulation

Enhanced Geothermal Systems could provide a substantial contribution to the global energy demand if their implementation could overcome inherent challenges. Examples are insufficient created permeability, early thermal breakthrough, and unacceptable induced seismicity. In this study we report on the seismic response of a mesoscale hydraulic fracturing experiment performed at 1.5-km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. We have measured the seismic activity by utilizing a 100-kHz, continuous seismic monitoring system deployed in six 60-m length monitoring boreholes surrounding the experimental domain in 3-D. The achieved location uncertainty was on the order of 1 m and limited by the signal-to-noise ratio of detected events. These uncertainties were corroborated by detections of fracture intersections at the monitoring boreholes. Three intervals of the dedicated injection borehole were hydraulically stimulated by water injection at pressures up to 33 MPa and flow rates up to 5 L/min. We located 1,933 seismic events during several injection periods. The recorded seismicity delineates a complex fracture network comprised of multistrand hydraulic fractures and shear-reactivated, preexisting planes of weakness that grew unilaterally from the point of initiation. We find that heterogeneity of stress dictates the seismic outcome of hydraulic stimulations, even when relying on theoretically well-behaved hydraulic fractures. Once hydraulic fractures intersected boreholes, the boreholes acted as a pressure relief and fracture propagation ceased. In order to create an efficient subsurface heat exchanger, production boreholes should not be drilled before the end of hydraulic stimulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Distinct meteoroid families identified on the lunar seismograms

The meteoroid impact-seismic activity data recorded by the Apollo lunar seismic network is examined. The study investigates the difference in temporal distribution between large and small impacts, clustering of impacts in a two-dimensional space of the time of the year and the time of the month, and the relationship of these observations with terrestrial observations. Several distinct families of meteoroids impacting the moon are identified. Most meteoroids producing small impact-seismic events, including ones associated with cometary showers, appear to approach from retrograde heliocentric orbits. In contrast, most meteoroids associated with large impact-seismic events appear to approach from prograde orbits; the observation is consistent with a hypothesis that many of them represent stony asteroidal material. It is suggested that the previously reported discrepancy between lunar and terrestrial meteoroid-flux estimates may be due to the differences in lunar and terrestrial detection efficiency among various families of meteoroids.

Oberst, Jurgen↗

Relationships of earthquakes (and earthquake-associated mass movements) and polar motion as determined by Kalman filtered, Very-Long-Baseline-Interferometry

A Kalman filter was designed to yield optimal estimates of geophysical parameters from Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) group delay data. The geophysical parameters are the polar motion components, adjustments to nutation in obliquity and longitude, and a change in the length of day parameter. The VLBI clock (and clock rate) parameters and atmospheric zenith delay parameters are estimated simultaneously. Filter background is explained. The IRIS (International Radio Interferometric Surveying) VLBI data are Kalman filtered. The resulting polar motion estimates are examined. There are polar motion signatures at the times of three large earthquakes occurring in 1984 to 1986: Mexico, 19 September, 1985 (Magnitude M sub s = 8.1); Chile, 3 March, 1985 (M sub s = 7.8); and Taiwan, 14 November, 1986 (M sub s = 7.8). Breaks in polar motion occurring about 20 days after the earthquakes appear to correlate well with the onset of increased regional seismic activity and a return to more normal seismicity (respectively). While the contribution of these three earthquakes to polar motion excitations is small, the cumulative excitation due to earthquakes, or seismic phenomena over a Chandler wobble damping period may be significant. Mechanisms for polar motion excitation due to solid earth phenomena are examined. Excitation functions are computed, but the data spans are too short to draw conclusions based on these data.

Preisig, Joseph Richard Mark↗

A Revision of Mars Seismicity from Surface Faulting

The seismic moment release of Mars is estimated from slip on faults visible on the surface through time and calibrated by the number of marsquakes expected throughout the lithosphere. Results indicate Mars is presently seismically active and a promising prospect for future seismic investigations. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Golombek, M. P.↗

Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas

Oklahoma and Kansas experienced unprecedented seismic activity over the past decade due to earthquakes associated with unconventional hydrocarbon development. The modest natural seismicity and incomplete knowledge of the fault network in the region made it difficult to anticipate the locations of earthquakes with larger magnitudes (M w ≥ 4). Here, we show that monitoring of microearthquakes at regional scale using a pretrained neural phase picker and an earthquake relocation algorithm can illuminate unknown fault structures, and deliver information that can be synthesized for earthquake forecasting. We found that 80% of the larger earthquakes that occurred in the past decade could have been anticipated based on the spatial extent of the seismicity clusters that were formed before these earthquakes occurred. We also found that once a seismicity cluster with a length scale enough to host a larger earthquake was formed, there was a ~5% chance that it would host one or more larger earthquakes within a year. This probability is nearly an order of magnitude higher than one based on Gutenberg–Richter statistics and preceding seismicity. Applying our approach in practice can provide critical information on seismic hazards for risk management and regulatory decision making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori-Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non-Poisson” power-law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de-clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗