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Regolith, rock and fluid distributions at the Upper Colorado River Basin via a multicomponent seismic imaging approach

In October 2018, we conducted an exploratory seismic survey of the East River Watershed Function Science Focus Area, near Crested Butte, CO. Our survey goals were to map seismic bedrock, regolith and sediment properties and relate them to geomorphic and hydrologic processes. We acquired ~12 km of seismic data along roads with a 72-channel, 1.25m spaced streamer, an average shot spacing of 2.5m and an average acquisition rate of 3 km/day. We also obtained ~3km of planted geophone data with geophone and shot spacing between 2.5 and 5 meters and an acquisition rate of 0.5 km/day. Vp results show a sharp transition between regolith and bedrock along hillslopes suggesting a similarly abrupt change in porosity. Vp anisotropy in the Mancos Shale is observable in the lower reaches of the watershed, but is absent in regions near crystalline intrusions where contact metamorphism has likely modified pore structure within the shale. Alluvium thickness varies along the river axis from 0 to > 20 meters reflecting variations in depositional processes as function of stream gradient. We show that when strong discontinuities at the regolith base are present, inhomogeneous waves that travel along subsurface interfaces are generated and can be measured on vertical component geophones. We present a summary manuscript in the report appendix.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Global centroid moment tensor solutions in a heterogeneous earth: the CMT3D catalogue

SUMMARY For over 40 yr, the global centroid-moment tensor (GCMT) project has determined location and source parameters for globally recorded earthquakes larger than magnitude 5.0. The GCMT database remains a trusted staple for the geophysical community. Its point-source moment-tensor solutions are the result of inversions that model long-period observed seismic waveforms via normal-mode summation for a 1-D reference earth model, augmented by path corrections to capture 3-D variations in surface wave phase speeds, and to account for crustal structure. While this methodology remains essentially unchanged for the ongoing GCMT catalogue, source inversions based on waveform modelling in low-resolution 3-D earth models have revealed small but persistent biases in the standard modelling approach. Keeping pace with the increased capacity and demands of global tomography requires a revised catalogue of centroid-moment tensors (CMT), automatically and reproducibly computed using Green's functions from a state-of-the-art 3-D earth model. In this paper, we modify the current procedure for the full-waveform inversion of seismic traces for the six moment-tensor parameters, centroid latitude, longitude, depth and centroid time of global earthquakes. We take the GCMT solutions as a point of departure but update them to account for the effects of a heterogeneous earth, using the global 3-D wave speed model GLAD-M25. We generate synthetic seismograms from Green's functions computed by the spectral-element method in the 3-D model, select observed seismic data and remove their instrument response, process synthetic and observed data, select segments of observed and synthetic data based on similarity, and invert for new model parameters of the earthquake’s centroid location, time and moment tensor. The events in our new, preliminary database containing 9382 global event solutions, called CMT3D for ‘3-D centroid-moment tensors’, are on average 4 km shallower, about 1 s earlier, about 5 per cent larger in scalar moment, and more double-couple in nature than in the GCMT catalogue. We discuss in detail the geographical and statistical distributions of the updated solutions, and place them in the context of earlier work. We plan to disseminate our CMT3D solutions via the online ShakeMovie platform.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Structural and Stratigraphic Controls on Methane Hydrate occurrence and distribution: Gulf of Mexico, Walker Ridge 313 and Green Canyon 955: Final Report

The goal of this project was to determine structural and stratigraphic controls on hydrate occurrence and distribution in Green Canyon (GC) 955 and Walker Ridge (WR) 313 blocks using seismic and well data. Gas hydrate was discovered in these blocks in coarse- and fine-grained sediments during the 2009 Joint Industrial project (JIP) Leg 11 drilling expedition. Although the immediate interest of the exploration community is exclusively hydrate which is present in coarse–grained sediments, factors that control hydrate and free gas distribution in the two blocks and whether coarse and fine-grained hydrate-bearing units are related in any manner, formed the core of this research. The project spanned from 10/01/2012 to 07/31/2016. In the project, in both the leased blocks, the interval spanning the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) was characterized using a joint analysis of sparse Ocean Bottom Seismic (OBS) and dense, surface–towed multichannel seismic (MCS) data. The project team had the luxury of calibrating their results with two well logs. Advance processing methods such as depth migration and full-waveform inversion (FWI) were used for seismic data analysis. Hydrate quantification was achieved through interpretation of the FWI velocity field using appropriate rock physics models at both blocks. The seismic modeling/inversion methodology (common to both GC955 and WR313 blocks) was as follows. First, the MCS data were depth migrated using a P-wave velocity (VP) model constructed using inversion of reflection arrival times of a few (four in both cases) key horizons carefully picked in the OBS data to farthest possible offsets. Then, the resolution of the traveltime VP model was improved to wavelength scale by inverting OBS gathers up to the highest frequency possible (21.75 Hz for GC955 and 17.5 for WR313) using FWI. Finally, the hydrate saturation (or the volume fraction) was estimated at the well location assuming one of the other hydrate morphology (filling the primary or the secondary porosity) was extrapolated out from the wells using the FWI VP as a guide. General outcomes were as follows. First and foremost, an imaging methodology using sparse seismic data, which is easily replicable at other sites with similar datasets, has been demonstrated. The end product of this methodology at both the leased blocks is quantitative estimates of hydrate distribution. Second, at both locations there is strong evidence that the base of the GHSZ, which does not appear as a clear Bottom Simulating Reflection (BSR), manifests in the VP perturbations created by FWI, suggesting that FWI is sensitive to subtle compositional changes in shallow sediments and establishes it as a valuable tool for investigations of hydrate-bearing basins. Third, through joint interpretation of the depth migrated image and the FWI VP model, how structure and stratigraphy jointly determine hydrate and free gas distribution in both blocks could be clearly visualized. The joint interpretation also suggests that the coarse and fine grained hydrate-bearing sediments at both leased are connected. Site specific results, in addition to general results, are as follows. At GC955 the overlying fine-grained hydrate-bearing unit could have been sourced from the underlying hydrate coarse-grained channel-levee complex through a chimney feature. The channel-levee system at GC955 is compartmentalized by faults, of which only a few may be impermeable. Although compartmentalized, the channel-levee system in the GC955 as a whole might be in communication except selected zones. At WR313 the overlying fine-grained fracture-filled hydrate unit appears to be sourced from below the GHSZ. The reason that only a particular fine-grained unit has hydrate, despite having lower porosity that the bounding units, could be the presence of secondary porosity (such as those formed from clay dewatering under compaction). In conclusion, the project was a pioneering effort in in joint analysis of OBS and MCS datasets for advancing the knowledge about a hydrate and free–gas system dynamics using advanced processing methods such as FWI and depth migration. Results obtained in this project can greatly advance the tools and techniques used for delineating specific hydrate prospects. Results obtained in this project can also be seamlessly incorporated into other DOE funded project on modeling the potential productivity and commercial viability of hydrate from sand-dominated reservoirs. The OBS and MCS data in this project were acquired in 2012 (after the JIP II drilling) by the USGS and therefore the results are a posteriori. Nonetheless, the seismic inversion workflow established through this project can be used to generate various what-if quantification scenarios even in absence of logs and serve as a valuable tool for guiding drilling operations. Results from this project can augment other DOE sponsored projects on determining the commercial viability of methane production from the Gulf of Mexico.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Steptoe Valley NV Data Compilation: Understanding a Stratigraphic Hydrothermal Resource through Geophysical Imaging

Sandia National Laboratories partnered with a multi-disciplinary group of subject matter experts to evaluate a stratigraphic geothermal resource in Steptoe Valley, Nevada using both established and novel geophysical imaging techniques. Provided here are a compilation of newly acquired data over the area and select modeling efforts. This encompasses a 3D geological model (inclusive of full Leapfrog files, Leapfrog viewer files, and XYZ data for faults and stratigraphy) with embedded geophysical modeling, controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) and magnetotelluric (MT) data packages, aqueous spring geochemistry data, seismic reflection interpretations, and a gravity data package. The stratigraphic reservoir in Steptoe Valley was previously discovered during oil and gas exploration. Subsequent studies, such as the Nevada Play Fairway Analysis, added data which further highlighted potential resource targets in the basin. Geophysical surveys, complimented with refined geologic mapping and geochemical sampling, were deployed to further characterize the resource. The resulting 3D geologic interpretation, conceptual model refinements, and reservoir simulations suggest that a power-capable reservoir is economically accessible in the Paleozoic carbonates of the deep/central basin. Additional geophysical characterization and exploration drilling efforts are recommended to calibrate interpretation and determine where/how to potentially develop the Steptoe resource. The geophysical tools, interpretations, lessons learned, and publicly available data generated by this study establish an exploration methodology to inform decisions for successful development of stratigraphic reservoirs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Using Natural Gas Liquids to Recover Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources (Final Report)

This document presents final technical findings for the project Using Natural Gas Liquids to Recover Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources (FE0031782). The project is part of the U.S. Department of Energy Oil and Gas Program to develop and advance technologies that can significantly improve the recovery efficiencies of unconventional oil and gas resources. The overall objective of this project is to improve the ultimate recovery from unconventional oil and gas (UOG) resources in the United States by developing a method for using unrefined natural gas liquids (NGLs) as treatment fluids to improve hydrocarbon production. Horizontal extended-lateral drilling coupled with high volume hydraulic fracturing has significantly increased production from UOG resources in the U.S. However, the recovery efficiency is low compared to the estimated oil and gas in place. Recent data indicate that less than 10% of the oil in the liquid-rich UOG reservoirs is produced. Alternative completion methods using NGLs could increase production (Battelle, 2016; Wan et al., 2013; Wan, 2013; Downey et al, 2021); however, field validation tests are needed to develop an approach that is economical, efficient, and compatible in the UOG setting to advance towards commercial deployment. This project aims to develop and field test a method to improve recovery of oil resources in UOG shale plays by using Y-Grade NGLs, or a similar combination of NGLs, as treatment fluids. Refined NGLs have been used as a hydraulic treatment fluid in UOG plays for decades and are shown to be particularly effective because their miscibility with oil allows oil to flow more freely; however, the use of Y-Grade (unrefined) NGLs has not been studied. The use of Y-Grade NGLs would be advantageous over refined NGLs because Y-Grade NGLs do not require infrastructure or investment in refining and are already being produced from many UOG reservoirs. The concept was tested and monitored in the field at a commercial well site owned by project partner Hopco, Ltd. The project team, which consists of multiple oil and gas operators, Linde Gas North America LLC (Linde) and the Ohio Division of Geological Survey (ODGS), has extensive experience with oil and gas production in the Appalachian basin and the ability to work together quickly to solve technical issues and research needs. A key part of the proposed work was the use of existing wells for field testing and monitoring. A total of four wells (three vertical and one horizontal) were available for this project. One of the vertical wells was utilized as the test well for the NGL treatment test. A nearby vertical well was used for microseismic monitoring. The remaining vertical well and the horizontal well provided a baseline for typical UOG production in the oil window of the Utica/Point Pleasant (UPP). Major technical tasks of the project include characterization of the geotechnical properties of the UPP with an emphasis on the field site; design and planning for the NGLs testing; field testing and monitoring; analysis and integration of field data; and economic and resource/reserve assessment. The Shoman monitoring well and Doughty NGL treatment well were successfully plugged back during September-October 2020 in preparation for treatment and monitoring. A nitrogen diagnostic fracture injection test (DFIT) was completed on the Doughty well on July 22, 2021, consisting of 133,000 scf (91 Bbl.) of nitrogen. A nitrogen foam frac was completed in the Utica-Point Pleasant interval on August 17, 2021 with funding from outside sources. A microseismic monitoring array was installed in the Shoman well and monitored microseismic activity during the Doughty well frac job. Y-Grade NGL injection commenced on August 26, 2021. A total of 215 Bbl. was injected but the job was shut down due to a small leak on the suction hose on the pump truck. The Y-Grade treatment resumed on August 27, 2021 and an additional 726 Bbl. of Y-Grade NGL was injected at a well head pressure of 3850 psi. Total volume of injected Y-Grade over the two days of injection was 941 Bbl. The well was shut-in for 17 days following injection to allow the Y-Grade NGLs to soak on the formation. Y-Grade treatment flow back commenced on 9/13/2021 on a weekly basis. Production data, including surface pressures, oil, nitrogen, natural gas, and flow times was measured and recorded. Periodic gas samples were collected and analyzed to determine composition of flowback gas. As of July 2022, the treatment well had produced 726 Bbl of oil and 2,888 mcf gas. In August 2022, tubing and packer in the well were removed and a pump was installed to enhance oil recovery. Currently, the operator is producing the well about 2 days a week for a few hours. The performance of the NGL treatment test was evaluated based on reservoir simulations of the treatment process, processing of well testing data, analysis of micro seismic monitoring data, and production data analysis. This analysis suggested that oil production in the small test would continue through 2025. Upscaling the treatment to a horizontal Utica Point-Pleasant well would allow more oil recovery, but the process would involve more investment, services, and operational support. An economic analysis was conducted for scenarios aimed at upscaling the NGL treatment process for more typical horizontal UPP wells in the Appalachian Basin.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A New Decade in Seismoacoustics (2010–2022)

Several sources of interest often generate both low‐frequency acoustic and seismic signals due to energy propagation through the atmosphere and the solid Earth. Seismic and acoustic observations are associated with a wide range of sources, including earthquakes, volcanoes, bolides, chemical and nuclear explosions, ocean noise, and others. The fusion of seismic and acoustic observations contributes to a better understanding of the source, both in terms of constraining source location and physics, as well as the seismic to acoustic coupling of energy. Here in this review, we summarize progress in seismoacoustic data processing, including recent developments in open‐source data availability, low‐cost seismic and acoustic sensors, and large‐scale deployments of collocated sensors from 2010 to 2022. Similarly, we outline the recent advancements in modeling efforts for both source characteristics and propagation dynamics. Finally, we highlight the advantages of fusing multiphenomenological signals, focusing on current and future techniques to improve source detection, localization, and characterization efforts. This review aims to serve as a reference for seismologists, acousticians, and others within the growing field of seismoacoustics and multiphenomenology research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analysis of seismicity at observed at station BCE using subspace detectors

A dynamic correlation processor (DCP) was used to process 90 days of 3-component seismic data recorded by station BCE. Two methods of detector creation were compared. The first attempted to span the signal space with a small number of subspace detectors having minimal projections on one another, and the second used a much larger number of detectors with substantial inter-template projections. After two passes over the data the results were compared, and the second approach was found to have produced more than 3 times the number of detections. For events in common, the average correlation statistic for the second approach was 0.77 compared to a statistic of 0.65 for the first approach. Also, analysis of the detection statistics as a function of SNR showed a strong functional relationship between SNR and correlation statistic for the second approach not found in the first approach. I interpret this to mean that the intra-group variability of signals produced by the second method is due primarily to noise rather than variations in source or path. These results show that (in an environment with large numbers of repeaters) if precise classification is a goal, it is better to operate a DCP with many correlators with substantial inter-template projections and that fully span the signal space. The performance of the DCP was also measured using a small set of “ground truth” picks for BCE from the Chip Brogan catalog. The catalog spanned less than three days out of the 90 days of the experiment and is also incomplete, but the comparison identified 12 signals missed by the DCP because of low SNR. Combining detections by the DCP and picks from the Brogan catalog, identifies 76 unique signals. Of these, the DCP detected 64 (84%) and the Catalog contained between 48/76 (63%) and 48/62 (77%). Analysis of time-of-day and day-of-week statistics was not useful in identifying the signal sources. However, magnitude recurrence statistics were consistent with mining induced seismicity (a preponderance of small sources). Failure of the temporal discriminants may indicate that the events being detected are not coupled in the same way to the mining activity, e.g. secondary failures. Correlation data from explosions at the Nevada test site (NTS) were used to bound the separation of events within groups. Nearly all the NTS correlations with the same passband and time bandwidth product as the detections and having a correlation statistic >= 0.8 are from sources separated by less than 1 km. Even at correlation values of 0.6 nearly all the source separations are less than about 3 km. Because the DCP detectors were formed to span the signal space at a correlation value of 0.9 and because the intra-group variability is most likely due to noise and not source variability, it is likely that the sources associated with each detector are separated by one km or less, and almost certain that the majority are separated by no more than 3 km.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

SUBTASK 1.6 – BASIN ELECTRIC CARBON STORAGE RESEARCH PROJECT: NOVEL MONITORING TECHNIQUES

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted baseline activities associated with an applied research project at Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s (Basin’s) carbon capture and storage (CCS) site in Beulah, North Dakota, to establish novel carbon storage-monitoring techniques as commercial methods under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233, Subtask 1.6. The following report summarizes the baseline activities performed and briefly describes the subsequent (operational monitoring) activities that have been proposed to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the overall project to develop and demonstrate novel monitoring techniques at North America’s largest permitted CCS operation. Dakota Gasification Company (DGC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Basin, owns and operates the Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) approximately 5 miles northwest of the town of Beulah, North Dakota (Figure 1). In 2023, DGC received approval from the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) to develop a storage facility on-site for injecting a stream of carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from GPSP. DGC will transport the captured CO2 stream with approximately 6.8 miles of transmission lines that extend north of GPSP and inject >1 million tonnes (MMt) of CO2 annually (>1 MMt/yr) over a 12-year period with up to six underground injection control (UIC) Class VI-compliant injection wells completed in the Broom Creek Formation, a predominantly sandstone reservoir and saline aquifer underlying GPSP. The Broom Creek Formation lies approximately 5900 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs) at GPSP. The commercial scale (i.e., >1 MMt/yr) of DGC’s permitted carbon storage project is ideal for developing and testing the novel monitoring techniques included within Subtask 1.6. The goals of this project are to demonstrate 1) the cost-effectiveness of novel monitoring technologies included as part of this research, 2) technology capability for tracking the CO2 plume and/or associated pressure response in the subsurface and monitoring out-of-zone migration, and 3) compliance with UIC Class VI program requirements. The research activities proposed for the overall project include 1) design of an automated, integrated, modular (AIM) monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance studies; 4) time-lapse monitoring with seismic methods; 5) advanced wellbore-monitoring methods; 6) deployment of an AIM monitoring network; 7) EM monitoring of CO2 with real-time data processing; 8) continued seasonal drone-based surveillance studies; 9) seismic monitoring with passive and active surveys; and 10) wellbore monitoring with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) for near-surface characterization. Completion of Activities 1.0–5.0 (baseline activities) are described in this report. Upon authorization of funding by DOE, the EERC will initiate Activities 6.0– 10.0 (operational monitoring activities). Current state-of-the-art (SOA) carbon storage-monitoring techniques require countless labor hours dedicated to the acquisition of data. Once data are gathered, these SOA techniques often rely on commercial facilities to process raw data from the field. However, it is anticipated that next-generation monitoring techniques, such as those being demonstrated, will lower acquisition footprints, be less operationally intensive, and improve data acquisition efficiencies. These new techniques are more conducive to the application of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and automation, thus providing a pathway for integration into active control systems, informing site operability, and improving the integration of data for future CCS projects across the United States. Additionally, reclaimed and active mining lands are present within the project site, creating a unique opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing and surface-based geophysics monitoring techniques at similar project sites that may include disturbed, unconsolidated, or actively excavated near-surface environments. The efforts included in the overall project will produce necessary designs, learnings, and data acquired during the baseline and operational monitoring periods that are necessary for time-lapse demonstration and validation of the described monitoring techniques. In addition, it is anticipated that the monitoring technologies included in this study will be compliant with UIC Class VI requirements to enable the potential for implementation at other CCS sites across the United States.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Final report of a scalable, automated, semipermanent seismic array (SASSA) method for detecting CO 2 extent during geologic CO 2 injection

The scalable, automated, semipermanent seismic array (SASSA) project led and managed by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) was designed as a 3-year proof-of-concept study to evaluate and demonstrate an innovative application of the seismic method. The concept was to use a sparse surface array of 96 nodal seismic sensors paired with a single, remotely operated active seismic source at a fixed location to monitor for CO 2 saturation changes in a subsurface reservoir by processing the data for time-lapse changes at individual, strategically chosen reservoir reflection points. The combination of autonomous equipment and modern processing algorithms was used to apply the seismic method in a manner different from the normal paradigm of collecting a spatially dense data set to produce an image. It was used instead to monitor individual, strategically chosen reservoir reflection points for detectable signal character changes that could be attributed to the passing of a CO 2 saturation front or, possibly, changes in reservoir pressure. Data collection occurred over the course of 1 year at an oil field undergoing CO 2 injection for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and focused on four overlapping “five-spot” EOR injector–producer patterns. Selection, procurement, configuration, installation, and testing of project equipment and collection of five baseline data sets were completed in advance of CO 2 injection within the study area. Weekly remote data collection produced 41 incremental time-lapse records for each of the 96 nodes. Validation was provided by two methods: 1) a conventional 2-D seismic line acquired through the center of the study area before injection started and again after the project ended and processed in a time-lapse manner and 2) by CO 2 saturation maps created from reservoir simulations based on injection and production history matching. Interpreted results were encouraging but mixed, with indications of changes likely due to the presence of CO 2 on some node reflection points where and when effects would be expected and noneffects where no CO 2 was expected, while results at some locations where simulation outputs suggested CO 2 should be present were ambiguous. Acquisition noise impacted interpretation of data at several locations. Many lessons learned were generated by the study to inform and improve results on a follow-up study. The ultimate aim of the project was to evaluate whether deployment of a SASSA technology can provide a useful and cost-effective monitoring solution for future CO 2 injection projects. The answer appears to be affirmative, with the expectation that lessons learned applied to future iterations, together with technology advances, will likely result in significant improvements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A microseismic workflow for managing induced seismicity risk as CO 2 storage projects

It is well established that fluid injection has the potential to induce earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—by altering state-of-stress conditions in the subsurface. While induced seismicity has not been a major operational issue for carbon storage projects to date, a seismicity hazard exists and must be carefully addressed. Two essential components of effective seismic risk management are (1) sensitive microseismic monitoring and (2) robust data interpretation tools. This report describes a novel workflow, based on advanced processing algorithms applied to microseismic data, to help improve management of seismic risk. This workflow has three main goals: (1) to improve the resolution and reliability of passive seismic monitoring, (2) to extract additional, valuable information from continuous waveform data that is often ignored in standard processing, and (3) to minimize the turn-around time between data collection, interpretation, and decision-making. These three objectives can allow for a better-informed and rapid response to changing subsurface conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Insights into Permafrost and Seasonal Active-Layer Dynamics from Ambient Seismic Noise Monitoring

Widespread permafrost thaw in response to changing climate conditions has the potential to dramatically impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and the global carbon budget. Ambient seismic noise techniques allow passive subsurface monitoring that could provide new insights into permafrost vulnerability and active–layer processes. Using nearly 2 years of continuous seismic data recorded near Fairbanks, Alaska, we measured relative velocity variations that showed a clear seasonal cycle reflecting active–layer freeze and thaw. Relative to January 2014, velocities increased up to 3% through late spring, decreased to –8% by late August, then gradually returned to the initial values by the following winter. Velocities responded rapidly (over ~2 to 7 days) to discrete hydrologic events and temperature forcing and indicated that spring snowmelt and infiltration events from summer rainfall were particularly influential in propagating thaw across the site. Velocity increases during the fall zero–curtain captured the re–freezing process and incremental ice formation. Looking across multiple frequency bands (3–30 Hz), negative relative velocities began at higher frequencies earlier in the summer then shifted lower when active–layer thaw deepened, suggesting a potential relationship between frequency and thaw depth; however, this response was dependent on interstation distance. Bayesian tomography returned 2–D time–lapse images identifying zones of greatest velocity reduction concentrated in the western side of the array, providing insight into the spatial variability of thaw progression, soil moisture, and drainage. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the potential of passive seismic monitoring as a new tool for studying site–scale active–layer and permafrost thaw processes at high temporal and spatial resolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Intelligent Monitoring System for Real-time Geologic Storage, Optimization, and Reservoir Management

The objective of the subtask was to develop a near-real-time monitoring system for seismic data at the Decatur, IL, geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) site and specifically include fiber-optic cable derived distributed acoustic signal (DAS) data in the process. Owing to the large volumes of data, we opted to utilize existing deep borehole conventional seismic sensors for detection and pull DAS and shallow borehole seismic data once a detection has been made. Unfortunately, the horizontal fiber-optic cables did not yield microseismic signals for use in locating events near the GCS site. Various stacking and filtering approaches were tested without any coherent detection becoming apparent. We attribute the insensitivity to local microseismic events to a lack of coupling in downhole, vertical cable and the non-ideal alignment of the horizontal fiber-optic cable to the vertically polarized seismic energy. Despite the inability to detect and utilize the DAS data from the fiber-optic cables, we developed a general processing framework that enables easy adaptation for future deployment of fiber-optic cables with better suited alignment at Decatur or elsewhere.

Kaven, J. Ole↗

Laboratory earthquake forecasting: A machine learning competition

Earthquake prediction, the long-sought holy grail of earthquake science, continues to confound Earth scientists. Could we make advances by crowdsourcing, drawing from the vast knowledge and creativity of the machine learning (ML) community? We used Google’s ML competition platform, Kaggle, to engage the worldwide ML community with a competition to develop and improve data analysis approaches on a forecasting problem that uses laboratory earthquake data. The competitors were tasked with predicting the time remaining before the next earthquake of successive laboratory quake events, based on only a small portion of the laboratory seismic data. The more than 4,500 participating teams created and shared more than 400 computer programs in openly accessible notebooks. Complementing the now well-known features of seismic data that map to fault criticality in the laboratory, the winning teams employed unexpected strategies based on rescaling failure times as a fraction of the seismic cycle and comparing input distribution of training and testing data. In addition to yielding scientific insights into fault processes in the laboratory and their relation with the evolution of the statistical properties of the associated seismic data, the competition serves as a pedagogical tool for teaching ML in geophysics. The approach may provide a model for other competitions in geosciences or other domains of study to help engage the ML community on problems of significance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Generating Uncertainty Distributions for Seismic Signal Onset Times

Signal arrival-time estimation plays a critical role in a variety of downstream seismic analyses, including location estimation and source characterization. Any arrival-time errors propagate through subsequent data-processing results. In this article, we detail a general framework for refining estimated seismic signal arrival times along with full estimation of their associated uncertainty. Using the standard short-term average/long-term average threshold algorithm to identify a search window, we demonstrate how to refine the pick estimate through two different approaches. In both cases, new waveform realizations are generated through bootstrap algorithms to produce full a posteriori estimates of uncertainty of onset arrival time of the seismic signal. The onset arrival uncertainty estimates provide additional data-derived information from the signal and have the potential to influence seismic analysis along several fronts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Scalable Metadata Management for a Large Multi-Source Seismic Data Repository

In this work, we implemented the key metadata management components of a scalable seismic data ingestion framework to address limitations in our existing system, and to position it for anticipated growth in volume and complexity. We began the effort with an assessment of open source data flow tools from the Hadoop ecosystem. We then began the construction of a layered architecture that is specifically designed to address many of the scalability and data quality issues we experience with our current pipeline. This included implementing basic functionality in each of the layers, such as establishing a data lake, designing a unified metadata schema, tracking provenance, and calculating data quality metrics. Our original intent was to test and validate the new ingestion framework with data from a large-scale field deployment in a temporary network. This delivered somewhat unsatisfying results, since the new system immediately identified fatal flaws in the data relatively early in the pipeline. Although this is a correct result it did not allow us to sufficiently exercise the whole framework. We then widened our scope to process all available metadata from over a dozen online seismic data sources to further test the implementation and validate the design. This experiment also uncovered a higher than expected frequency of certain types of metadata issues that challenged us to further tune our data management strategy to handle them. Our result from this project is a greatly improved understanding of real world data issues, a validated design, and prototype implementations of major components of an eventual production framework. This successfully forms the basis of future development for the Geophysical Monitoring Program data pipeline, which is a critical asset supporting multiple programs. It also positions us very well to deliver valuable metadata management expertise to our sponsors, and has already resulted in an NNSA Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation commitment to a multi-year project for follow-on work.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Visualization of hydraulic fracture using physics-informed clustering to process ultrasonic shear waves

Ultrasonic transmission is sensitive to the spatial variation in mechanical properties of materials due to the presence of cracks/fractures. Wave propagation through fractured media introduces changes in the frequency content, travel time and transmission coefficient of the wave. A workflow based on physics-informed unsupervised learning is developed to process the transmitted ultrasonic-shear waveforms to non-invasively visualize the geomechanical alterations due to hydraulic fracturing. Novelty of the work involves the assignment of both statistically consistent and physically consistent clusters to the measurements of shear waveforms acquired across the one axial and two frontal planes. Physically consistent/relevant information is incorporated by considering the travel time of the peak of spectral energy and transmission coefficient of the transmitted waveform. The proposed workflow generates maps of geomechanical alterations across the frontal and axial planes of the sample. The outputs of the workflow are in good agreement with independent techniques viz. acoustic emission and X-ray computed tomography. Finally, the proposed workflow can be adapted for improved fracture characterization in the subsurface when processing sonic-logging, cross-wellbore seismic or surface seismic waveform data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Anisotropic parameter estimation using velocity variation with offset analysis

Seismic anisotropy is defined as velocity dependent upon angle or offset. Knowledge about anisotropy effect on seismic data is important in amplitude analysis, stacking process and time to depth conversion. Due to this anisotropic effect, reflector can not be flattened using single velocity based on hyperbolic moveout equation. Therefore, after normal moveout correction, there will still be residual moveout that relates to velocity information. This research aims to obtain anisotropic parameters, ε and δ, using two proposed methods. The first method is called velocity variation with offset (VVO) which is based on simplification of weak anisotropy equation. In VVO method, velocity at each offset is calculated and plotted to obtain vertical velocity and parameter δ. The second method is inversion method using linear approach where vertical velocity, δ, and ε is estimated simultaneously. Both methods are tested on synthetic models using ray-tracing forward modelling. Results show that δ value can be estimated appropriately using both methods. Meanwhile, inversion based method give better estimation for obtaining ε value. This study shows that estimation on anisotropic parameters rely on the accuracy of normal moveout velocity, residual moveout and offset to angle transformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗