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At least 91 records · Page 5

Exploring Whether Subsurface Fluid Production Can Minimize Triggered Seismicity in Geothermal Fields

Fluid injection and production related to energy recovery and other industrial operations alter the pressure and stress state of subsurface reservoirs which can lead to induced seismicity. Here, the primary goal is to investigate the hypothesis that the modulation of stress state in subsurface reservoirs through fluid injection/production operations can reduce the likelihood of inducing seismicity. Validation of this mitigation strategy will provide an active operational method to control induced seismicity in subsurface reservoir exploitations such as geothermal energy recovery and carbon storage. In this project, we analyze the relationship between extensive fluid production and the paucity of aftershock activity at the Coso Geothermal plant (CGP) following the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, where high rates of aftershock triggering were expected. We developed a high-fidelity multiphase coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) model to simulate fluid injection/production activities at the CGP between 1986 and 2020. THM results of surface subsidence due to high rates of fluid production agree well with field observations from global positioning system (GPS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). Subsequently, the variations of pore pressure, temperature and stress state were used to drive numerical earthquake simulations of the aftershock response to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes. The earthquake simulations show that seismic quiescence may occur following the Ridgecrest event, depending on the initial stress state at the time of the mainshock and at the initiation of geothermal energy production. Seismic quiescence occurs in 20% of the cases we explored, where rates are decreased by 50% of the background rate in the two years following the mainshock. In circumstances where aftershock rates increase near the CGP following Ridgecrest, the average rate change is a factor of two larger than background rates from simulations with no operations. These findings indicate that unlike many other operations that bring faults closer to failure, operations at the CGP are acting to stabilize faults such that triggering in the current stress state is minimal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway

Significant efforts are underway to develop and implement a risk-informed performance-based licensing framework for advanced reactors built on the establishment of an affirmative safety case. Such approaches offer the benefits of increased flexibility regarding key design and licensing decisions based on a detailed assessment and understanding of plant risk. These methods include the comprehensive analysis of scenarios that have historically been addressed through conservative and deterministic licensing analysis approaches, such as the evaluation of event sequences at frequencies of occurrence beyond the design basis. While the detailed analysis of low frequency events provides insights that can help justify alternative treatments to past conservatism, the findings are dependent on the quality and confidence associated with the analyses. The assessment of external hazards presents a unique challenge, as their potential frequency of occurrence, especially of large magnitude events, is inherently uncertain given the long return periods in question. The current project seeks to further explore the regulatory treatment of low frequency external events as part of a risk-informed performance-based framework. The goals are to identify the benefits and challenges of such approaches for advanced reactor vendors and to aid in the development of consistent and appropriate methodologies. As part of this effort, the current report summarizes initial project findings, with a focus on the evaluation of the seismic hazard. This includes an exploration of the implementation of a risk-informed performance-based approach through an example analysis. Based on the identified challenges associated with the probabilistic treatment of low frequency event sequences, additional performance-based methods were explored as complementary tools for demonstrating regulatory compliance. The report highlights key challenges and opportunities associated with the methods and outlines recommendations and future activities to assist with their implementation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Computer simulation of earthquakes

Two computer simulation models of earthquakes were studied for the dependence of the pattern of events on the model assumptions and input parameters. Both models represent the seismically active region by mechanical blocks which are connected to one another and to a driving plate. The blocks slide on a friction surface. In the first model elastic forces were employed and time independent friction to simulate main shock events. The size, length, and time and place of event occurrence were influenced strongly by the magnitude and degree of homogeniety in the elastic and friction parameters of the fault region. Periodically reoccurring similar events were frequently observed in simulations with near homogeneous parameters along the fault, whereas, seismic gaps were a common feature of simulations employing large variations in the fault parameters. The second model incorporated viscoelastic forces and time-dependent friction to account for aftershock sequences. The periods between aftershock events increased with time and the aftershock region was confined to that which moved in the main event.

Cohen, S. C.↗

Structural Evolution of the Hogback Monocline and Its Tectonic Significance in the San Juan Basin

The San Juan Basin is recognized as a Laramide foreland basin. It is located within the Colorado Plateau, a broad tectonic province characterized by a thick sedimentary sequence that was segmented into smaller sub basins during the Late Cretaceous to Paleogene Laramide orogeny. The Hogback Monocline lies along the northwestern margin of the San Juan Basin and is considered a Laramide-age structure formed in response to compressional stress. In this study, we interpret surface and subsurface datasets to construct a structural geological model and evaluate its tectonic significance. Through seismic data, we identify key fault and fold geometries at depth. The seismic dataset used in this study was reprocessed in depth and constrained with well log velocity data to enhance seismic imaging quality. Additionally, we performed well log correlations to identify formation tops and assess variations in basin infill and thickness geometry. A series of structural cross-sections, constructed using seismic data and a high density of boreholes, are presented to evaluate geometric variations along the structure and its evolution during basin development. Furthermore, kinematic restoration and forward modeling analyses were conducted to validate our structural interpretation. This work suggests that the Hogback Monocline formed through fault-propagation folding and flexural slip affecting the pre-Laramide sedimentary sequence under compressional stresses associated with the Laramide orogeny. This structure is interpreted as a high-angle reverse fault that influenced the geometry of the late basin infill. Additionally, monocline bending along the structure may have been controlled by fault relay systems and, in some cases, influenced by strike-slip faulting.

Reyes, Martin [New Mexico Bureau o fGeology and Mi↗

Mars Exploration 2003 to 2013 - An Integrated Perspective: Time Sequencing the Missions

The science goals for the Mars exploration program, together with the HEDS precursor environmental and technology needs, serve as a solid starting point for re-planning the program in an orderly way. Most recently, the community has recognized the significance of subsurface sampling as a key component in "following the water". Accessing samples from hundreds and even thousands of meters beneath the surface is a challenge that will call for technology development and for one or more demonstration missions. Recent mission failures and concerns about the complexity of the previously planned MSR missions indicate that, before we are ready to undertake sample return and deep sampling, the Mars exploration program needs to include: 1) technology development missions; and 2) basic landing site assessment missions. These precursor missions should demonstrate the capability for reliable & accurate soft landing and in situ propellant production. The precursor missions will need to carry out close-up site observations, ground-penetrating radar mapping from orbit and conduct seismic surveys. Clearly the programs should be planned as a single, continuous exploration effort. A prudent minimum list of missions, including surface rovers with ranges of more than 10 km, can be derived from the numerous goals and requirements; they can be sequenced in an orderly way to ensure that time is available to feed forward the results of the precursor missions. One such sequence of missions is proposed for the decade beginning in 2003.

Briggs, G.↗

Analysis of seismic body waves excited by the Mount Saint Helens eruption of May 18, 1980

Seismic body waves which were excited by eruption of Mt. St. Helens, and recorded by the Global Digital Seismographic Network (GDSN) stations are analyzed to determine the nature and the time sequence of the events associated with the eruption. The polarity of teleseismic P waves (period 20 sec) is identical at six stations which are distributed over a wide azimuthal range. This observation, together with a very small S to P amplitude ratio (at 20 sec), suggests that the source is a nearly vertical single force that represents the counter force of the eruption. The time history of the vertical force suggests two distinct groups of events, about two minutes apart, each consisting of several subevents with a duration of about 25 sec. The magnitude of the force is approximately 2.6 to the 17th power dyne. this vertical force is in contrast with the long period (approximately 150 sec) southward horizontal single force which was determined by a previous study and interpreted to be due to the massive landslide.

Kanamori, H.↗

Analysis of seismic body waves excited by the Mount St. Helens eruption of May 18, 1980

Seismic body waves which were excited by eruption of Mt. St. Helens, and recorded by the Global Digital Seismographic Network (GDSN) stations are analyzed to determine the nature and the time sequence of the events associated with the eruption. The polarity of teleseismic P waves (period 20 sec) is identical at six stations which are distributed over a wide azimuthal range. This observation, together with a very small S to P amplitude ratio (at 20 sec), suggests that the source is a nearly vertical single force that represents the counter force of the eruption. The time history of the vertical force suggests two distinct groups of events, about two minutes apart, each consisting of several subevents with a duration of about 25 sec. The magnitude of the force is approximately 2.6 to the 17th power dyne. This vertical force is in contrast with the long period (approximately 150 sec) southward horizontal single force which was determined by a previous study and interpreted to be due to the massive landslide. Previously announced in STAR as N83-15968

Kanamori, H.↗

Advancing Multi-Hazard Risk and Safety Considerations for Aging Nuclear Facilities

While probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear facilities is expected to include internal and external hazards for a risk-informed and performance-based design, the current state of practice treats each hazard independently. However, such an independent treatment of hazards may not account for the correlations between different hazards and their response of and damage to the structures, systems, and components (SSCs) in a plant resulting in underestimating the overall risk. This project proposes to advance the multi-hazard PRA of nuclear facilities to more adequately evaluate concurrent hazards and contribute to an increased safety of nuclear plants. A framework for multi-hazard PRA will be developed by identifying concurrent hazard events (both internal and external) and event sequences that include interdependencies through the response of SSCs. An example application of the multi-hazard PRA framework will be demonstrated by considering a generic pressurized water reactor (PWR) subjected to seismic and internal flooding hazards. Computational models for the response of components will be developed to generated multi-hazard fragility surfaces under seismic and flooding loads. A PRA model consisting of event and fault trees will also be developed to quantify the multi-hazard risk profile and compare it with the independent hazard risk profile. Overall, by advancing the multi-hazard PRA of nuclear facilities, this project enhances nuclear safety and reduces costs by mitigating unforeseen consequences caused by correlations between concurrent hazards.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Unusual Seismic Signals in the Sevier Desert, Utah Possibly Related to the Black Rock Volcanic Field

Abstract On September 12, 2018 and April 14, 2019 shallow (<2.5 km from the surface, <1 km relative to sea level) earthquakes ( M w 4.0 and 4.1, respectively) struck a relatively aseismic area in south‐central Utah, within the Black Rock Desert volcanic field. Seismic waveforms are dominated by long‐period energy, no clear direct S‐wave arrivals, and signal durations of ∼100 s. Using co‐seismic interferograms, we detect clear and distinguishable surface deformation confirming the shallowness of the two mainshocks, while full moment tensor solutions rule out an isotropic source, such as an explosion or collapse. For the April 2019 sequence, we build an earthquake catalog using a dense temporary geophone array. The enhanced earthquake catalog shows a rapidly decaying aftershock sequence, with 85% of aftershocks occurring during the first three hours. Combining these observations, we argue that these earthquake sequences are related to the Black Rock Desert volcanic field.

Mesimeri, Maria↗

Episodic Earthquake Swarms in the Mineral Mountains, Utah Driven by the Roosevelt Hydrothermal System

Over 1,000 earthquakes (-2.0 < M < 2.0), identified using a matched-filter method, occurred in the Mineral Mountains, Utah between 2016 and 2019. The enhanced catalog is complete down to M -0.9 and contains roughly 15 times more events than originally cataloged. Earthquake relocation of ~800 earthquakes shows that activity is concentrated in a <2 km long E-W striking narrow zone, ~4 km east of the Roosevelt hydrothermal system. Two fault orientations, both N-S and E-W parallel to the Opal Mound and Mag Lee faults, respectively, are observed after computing composite focal mechanisms of highly similar earthquakes. Looking solely at the temporal distribution of the seismicity, we identify 15 periods of swarm-like activity, with two major clusters occurring in December 2016, recorded by three stations, and in October 2019 recorded by eight stations. The October 2019 swarm, the best recorded sequence in the area, provides evidence for the underlying triggering mechanism. We show that a complex mechanism of fluid diffusion and aseismic slip is responsible for the swarm evolution with migration velocities reaching 10 km/day. We hypothesize that these episodic swarms in the Mineral Mountains are primarily driven by migrating fluids that originate within the Roosevelt hydrothermal system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characterizing natural fractures and sub-seismic faults for well completion of Marcellus shale in the MSEEL Consortium project, West Virginia, USA

The Middle Devonian Marcellus shale play has emerged as a major world-class hydrocarbon accumulation and represents one of the largest and most prolific shale plays in the world. According to many outcrop studies in the region, natural fractures are well developed in the Marcellus Shale. However, evaluating fractures in the subsurface is often a significant challenge due to a lack of sufficient data. Therefore, in the Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory (MSEEL) consortium project, significant efforts have been made to acquire high-quality image logs in the Marcellus laterals. The project provided tremendous opportunities to characterize the natural fractures and sub-seismic faults and to evaluate their impact on well stimulation. In this study, about 70,000 ft of acquired high-resolution logging while drilling (LWD) acoustic images from five long laterals located in Monongalia County, West Virginia, were processed and interpreted. In addition, the study used high-quality micro-resistivity images from a pilot well, allowing the evaluation of natural fractures in the entire Marcellus vertical sequence. Based on the available acoustic images, the natural fractures were classified into three basic categories: high-amplitude fractures, low-amplitude fractures, and faults. Further, larger open fractures can also be determined when a low-amplitude fracture is evident on caliper images. The fractures in the Marcellus usually have a medium to high angle dip; however, multiple fracture sets in terms of strike orientation were clearly observed in all the laterals. The fracture set with a strike at NE-SW (or 60-240 deg) seems to be the predominant one in all the wells. A few other sets, including those with N-S, NWW-SEE, and E-W strikes, were also observed. Several sub-seismic faults, with mostly a low dip angle and a NE-SW strike, have also been seen in two of the laterals. The fracture density is variable across all the laterals, ranging from very low (or none) to very high (up to 5 fractures per ft). The average fracture density for all the laterals is about 1 fracture per 10 ft. In the vertical sequence, the natural fracture development showed a clear preference for shale or shaly facies over carbonate-rich or thin limestone layers. The interpreted fracture and fault data were used as input data for the stimulation design with the purpose of better understanding the fractures’ impact on well stimulation. Production data from the laterals were also used to evaluate the natural fractures’ influence on well performance. The quality image database and the consistent interpretation results for the entire project enabled a systematic approach to characterizing fractures and, more importantly, to evaluating the impact of fractures on well stimulation and production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Preliminary Analysis of Source Physics Experiment Explosion-Triggered Microseismicity Using the Back-Projection Method

A series of four chemical explosions were detonated in a deep borehole within the Yucca Flat Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) at the Nevada National Security Site between 2018 and 2019. The two larger chemical explosions of 50 tons (DAG-2) and 10 tons (DAG-4) TNT equivalent yield triggered energetic aftershock sequences numbering 1392 and 347 microearthquakes, respectively, within the first 10 days. No significant aftershock activity was observed for the two smaller 1-ton explosions (DAG-1 and DAG-3). Here, we used a back-projection method based on travel-time migration and stacking of signal-to-noise ratio traces to detect, associate and locate aftershocks from a subset of 22-geophones within a larger 2 urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb54910:jgrb54910-math-0001 2 km seismic array surrounding the borehole. The aftershocks located within 300 m of the borehole and the depths were above the working points of 300 and 50 m depths of DAG-2 and DAG-4, respectively, ruling out triggering slip on geologic faults or disturbances beneath neighboring collapse craters. DAG-2 and DAG-4 aftershocks decayed at similar rates, with power-law exponents of p = 1.48 and p = 1.49, respectively. These decay rates are comparable to aftershocks sequences triggered by earthquakes and historical nuclear explosions at Yucca Flat. A smooth power-law aftershock decay within the first 10 days suggests a triggering mechanism from explosion generated stress relaxation due to the diffusion of high gas pressures in the cavity and radial fractures. A more random and episodic aftershock rate would be expected due to cavity collapse or falling rubble in chimney formation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

GPS measurements of deformation associated with the 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake: Evidence for conjugate faulting

Large station displacements observed from Imperial Valley Global Positioning System (GPS) campaigns are attributed to the November 24, 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake sequence. Thirty sites from a 42 station GPS network established in 1986 were reoccupied during 1988 and/or 1990. Displacements at three sites within 3 kilometers of the surface rupture approach 0.5 m. Eight additional stations within 20 km of the seismic zone are displaced at least 10 cm. This is the first occurrence of a large earthquake (M(sub S) 6.6) within a preexisting GPS network. Best-fitting uniform slip models of rectangular dislocations in an elastic half-space indicate 130 + or - 8 cm right-lateral displacement along the northwest-trending Superstition Hills fault and 30 + or - 10 cm left-lateral displacement along the conjugate northeast-trending Elmore Ranch fault. The geodetic moments are 9.4 x 10(exp 25) dyne-cm and 2.3 x 10(exp 25) dyne-cm for the Superstition Hills and Elmore Ranch faults, respectively, consistent with teleseismic source parameters. The data also suggest the post seismic slip along the Superstition Hills fault is concentrated at shallow depths. Distributed slip solutions using Singular Value Decomposition indicate near uniform displacement along the Elmore Ranch fault and concentrated slip to the northwest and southeast along the Superstition Hills fault. A significant component of non-seismic displacement is observed across the Imperial Valley, which is attributed in part to interseismic plate-boundary deformation.

Larsen, Shawn↗

Global positioning system measurements of deformations associated with the 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake - Evidence for conjugate faulting

Large station displacements observed from Imperial Valley Global Positioning System (GPS) compaigns are attributed to the November 24, 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake sequence. Thirty sites from a 42 station GPS network established in 1986 were reoccupied during 1988 and/or 1990. Displacements at three sites within 3 kilometers of the surface rupture approach 0.5 m. Eight additional stations within 20 km of the seismic zone are displaced at least 10 cm. This is the first occurrence of a large earthquake (M(sub S) 6.6) within a preexisting GPS network. Best-fitting uniform slip models of rectangular dislocations in an elastic half-space indicate 130 + or - 8 cm right-lateral displacement along the northwest-trending Superstition Hills fault and 30 + or - 10 cm left-lateral displacement along the conjugate northeast-trending Elmore Ranch fault. The geodetic moments are 9.4 x 10 (exp 25) dyne-cm and 2.3 x 10 (exp 25) dyne-cm for the Superstition Hills and Elmore Ranch faults, respectively, consistent with teleseismic source parameters. The data also suggest the post seismic slip along the Superstition Hills fault is concentrated at shallow depths. Distributed slip solutions using Singular Value Decomposition indicate near uniform displacement along the Elmore Ranch fault and concentrated slip to the northwest and southeast along the Superstition Hills fault. A significant component of non-seismic displacement is observed across the Imperial Valley, which is attributed in part to interseismic plate-boundary deformation.

Larsen, Shawn↗

Geology of the One Earth Energy Site

The One Earth Energy site is one of two sites in the Illinois Storage Corridor (ISC) project. The objectives of the ISC project is to accelerate commercial deployment of carbon capture utilization and storage at two individual sites and receive approvals for Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permits for construction at each site. At the One Earth Energy site, an extensive data collection program was undertaken, which included the drilling of a test well (One Earth Energy #1 [OEE #1]), four 2D seismic lines, and a small 3D seismic survey. The OEE #1 well was drilled in 2022 and acquired extensive core, log, and testing data to characterize the subsurface geology of the site. Coring was focused on the storage interval, the Mt. Simon Sandstone, and the confining interval, the Eau Claire Formation. The core and log data were used to evaluate the sedimentology and sequence stratigraphy, as well as to develop the conceptual geologic model. This report includes the geological summaries of the Mt. Simon Sandstone and the Eau Claire Formation. The extensive analysis of the log data is included in the petrophysical section, showing ranges of porosity, estimated pore size, and the mineral content of selected zones in the well. The separate petrographic technical report entitled “Petrographic and Advanced Geologic Characterization Report on One Earth Energy #1 (API# 1211325373)”, report number DOE-UIUC-0031892-04, details thin section point-counting analysis that includes mineralogical and pore space analysis, including grain size analysis, annotated thin section photomicrographs, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), and statistics of grain size analysis on Mt. Simon thin sections from OEE #1. The final OEE #1 well data to be included in this geology report is the routine core analysis of both whole core plugs and rotary sidewall core plugs. In addition to the OEE #1 well, four 2D seismic lines and a small 3D survey were acquired as part of the overall subsurface geological characterization. This geology report references the seismic interpretation report, entitled “One Earth Energy Site Seismic Interpretation Task 5.0”, report number DOE-UIUC-0031892-07. This report details the stratigraphic and structural interpretation of the 2D and 3D seismic data acquired at the One Earth Energy site. The 2D seismic data was acquired in 2019 and 2021, and the 3D survey was acquired in 2022. The objectives of the seismic programs were to contribute to the subsurface characterization of the Mt. Simon-Eau Claire Storage Complex by evaluating the continuity of potential storage reservoirs and containment intervals across the project area, and to determine if any geologic features are present that would increase containment risk to the proposed carbon storage project.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Electrostatic generator electrode-centering and seismic-isolation system for flywheel-based energy storage modules

Robust electro-static (ES) device embodiments, with application to energy storage flywheels as an example, are described that provide reliable, high-efficiency operation in the presence of thermal and mechanical perturbations, as well as seismic events. Electro-static generators and motors, when augmented with magnetic bearings, passive three-dimensional stabilization techniques and dynamic touch-down bearings, enable robust performance in the face of these environmental concerns, as well as efficient operation during typical operational sequences, including spin-up and steady-state modalities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Electrostatic generator electrode-centering and seismic-isolation system for flywheel-based energy storage modules

Robust electro-static (ES) device embodiments, with application to energy storage flywheels as an example, are described that provide reliable, high-efficiency operation in the presence of thermal and mechanical perturbations, as well as seismic events. Electro-static generators and motors, when augmented with magnetic bearings, passive three-dimensional stabilization techniques and dynamic touch-down bearings, enable robust performance in the face of these environmental concerns, as well as efficient operation during typical operational sequences, including spin-up and steady-state modalities.

Post, Richard F.↗

A Data-Driven Framework for Automated Detection of Aircraft-Generated Signals in Seismic Array Data Using Machine Learning

Abstract Ground motions associated with aircraft overflights can cover a significant portion of the seismic data collected by shallowly emplaced seismometers, such as new nodal and Distributed Acoustic Sensing systems. This article describes the first published framework for automated detection of aircraft on single channel and multichannel seismic data. The seismic data are converted to spectrograms in a sliding time window and classified as aircraft or nonaircraft in each window using a deep convolutional neural network trained with analyst-labeled data. A majority voting scheme is used to convert the output from the sequence of sliding time windows onto a decision time sequence for each channel and to combine the binary classifications on the decision time sequences across multiple channels. Precision, recall, and F-score are used to quantify the detection performance of the algorithm on nodal data using fourfold time-series cross validation. By applying our framework to data from the Sage Brush Flats nodal array in Southern California, we provide a benchmark performance and demonstrate the advantage of using an array of sensors.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗