Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “short-term prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

High-latitude oceanic variability associated with the 18.6-year nodal tide

Water column temperature variations which indicate that the upper ocean is responding to 18.6-yr tidal forcing are presented. An enhanced high-latitude response to this forcing is predicted by equilibrium tide theory, and it should be most evident at latitudes poleward of about 50 deg. Critical information on regional climate variations might be found in the subsurface waters of the North Pacific and possibly other high-latitude oceans. The 18.6-yr nodal tidal cycle must be considered in circulation models of the ocean and atmosphere that examine time scales of decades or longer. Because the temperature range associated with the cycle is 0.5-1 C, short-term climate and biological populations could be affected.

Royer, Thomas C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Differential GPS and system integration of the Low Visibility Landing and Surface Operations (LVLASO) demonstration

The LVLASO Flight Demonstration of ASTA concepts (FDAC) integrates NASA-Langley's electronic moving map display and Transport Systems Research Vehicle (TSRV) (a modified Boeing 737 aircraft); ARINC's VHF data link, GPS ground station, and automated controller workstation; and Norden's surface radar/airport movement safety system. Aircraft location is shown on the electronic map display in the cockpit. An approved taxi route as well as other aircraft and surface traffic are also displayed. An Ashtech Z12 Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver on the TSRV estimates the aircraft's position. In Differential mode (DSPS), the Ashtech receiver accepts differential C/A code pseudorange corrections from a GPS ground station. The GPS ground station provides corrections up to ten satellites. The corrections are transmitted on a VHF data link at a 1 Hz. rate using the RTCM-104 format. DGPS position estimates will be within 5 meters of actual aircraft position. DGPS position estimates are blended with position, velocity, acceleration, and heading data from the TSRV Air Data/Inertial Reference System (ADIRS). The ADIRS data is accurate in the short-term, but drifts over time. The DGPS data is used to keep the ADIRS position accurate. Ownship position, velocity, heading, and turn rate are sent at a 20 Hz. rate to the electronic map display. Airport traffic is detected by the airport surface radar system. Aircraft and vehicles such as fuel trucks and baggage carts are detected. The traffic's location, velocity, and heading are sent to the TSRV. To prevent traffic symbology from jumping each second when a location update arrives, velocity and heading are used to predict a new traffic location for each display update. Possible runway incursions and collisions can be shown on the electronic map. Integrating the different systems used in the FDAC requires attention to the underlying coordinate systems. The airport diagram displayed on the electronic map is obtained from published navigational charts. The charts reference the North American Datum of 1927 (NAD27) or a local state-plane coordinate system. GPS uses the World Geodetic Standard of 1984 (WGS84). Both NAD27 and WGS84 model the Earth as an ellipsoid, however, they use a different origin and different size ellipsoids. Latitudes and longitudes given in these systems can be converted to a Cartesian system with the origin at the Earth's center. The surface radar detects traffic in a locally-level, rho-theta coordiante system. The electronic airport diagram is stored using a flat XY coordinate system. The map origin is at the tower and is referenced as True North up. All ownship and other traffic positions must be converted to the electronic map's frame of reference for display.

Rankin, James M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Short-term climate variability and atmospheric teleconnections from satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation. I Simultaneous relationships. II - Lagged correlations

Attention is given to the low-frequency variability of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fluctuations, their possible correlations over different parts of the globe, and their relationships with teleconnections obtained from other meteorological parameters, for example, geopotential and temperature fields. Simultaneous relationships with respect to the Southern Oscillation (Namais, 1978; Barnett, 1981) signal and the reference OLR fluctuation over the equatorial central Pacific are investigated. Emphasis is placed on the relative importance of the Southern Oscillation (SO) signal over preferred regions. Using lag cross-correlation statistics, possible lagged relationships between the tropics and midlatitudes and their relationships with the SO are then investigated. Only features that are consistent with present knowledge of the dynamics of the system are emphasized. Certain features which may not meet rigorous statistical significance tests but yet are either expected a priori from independent observations or are predicted from dynamical theories are also explored.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Time-temperature behavior of a unidirectional graphite/epoxy composite

A testing program to determine the time-temperature response of unidirectional T300/934 graphite/epoxy materials is presented. The short-term creep test results of tension specimens with the load at various angles to the fiber direction and at various temperatures are reported, showing that the material is elastic at all temperatures when the fiber is in the load direction. However, when the load is transverse to the fibers, the viscoelastic response varies from small amounts at room temperature to large amounts at temperatures above the 180 C transition temperature. The time-temperature superposition principle or the method of reduced variables were used to determine compliance master curves for each fiber angle, and a viscoelastic analog to the elastic orthotropic transformation equation was used incrementally to predict the master curves for the tensile compliance of the off-axis specimen.

Yeow, Y. T.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Cosmic ray modulation and turbulent interaction regions near 11 AU

When Voyager 2 was near 11 AU, the counting rate of nuclei approx 75 MeV/nucleon decreased during the interval from July, 1982 to November, 1982, and it increased thereafter until August, 1983. A decrease in cosmic ray flux was generally associated with the passage of an interaction region in which the magnetic field strength B was higher than that predicted by the spiral field model, B sub p. Several large enhancements in B/B sup p were associated with merged interaction regions which probably resulted from the interaction of two or more distinct flows. During the passage of interaction regions the cosmic ray intensity decreased at a rate proportional to (B/B sup p -1), and during the passage of rarefaction regions (where B/B sup p 1) the cosmic ray intensity increased at a constant rate. The general form of the cosmic ray intensity profile during this approx 13 month minicycle can be described by integrating these relations using the observed B(+). Latitudinal variations of the interaction regions and of the short-term cosmic ray variations were identified.

Burlaga, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Cosmic ray modulation and turbulent interaction regions near 11 AU

When Voyager 2 was near 11 AU, the counting rate of nuclei approx 75 MeV/nucleon decreased during the interval from July, 1982 to November, 1982, and it increased thereafter until August, 1983. A decrease in cosmic ray flux was generally associated with the passage of an interaction region in which the magnetic field strength B was higher than that predicted by the spiral field model, B sub p. Several large enhancements in B/B sup p were associated with merged interaction regions which probably resulted from the interaction of two or more distinct flows. During the passage of interaction regions the cosmic ray intensity decreased at a rate proportional to (B/B sup p -1), and during the passage of rarefaction regions (where B/B sup p 1) the cosmic ray intensity increased at a constant rate. The general form of the cosmic ray intensity profile during this approx 13 month minicycle can be described by integrating these relations using the observed B(t). Latitudinal variations of the interaction regions and of the short-term cosmic ray variations were identified.

Burlaga, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Surface wind convergence as a short-term predictor of cloud-to-ground lightning at Kennedy Space Center

Cloud-to-ground lightning is a significant forecast problem at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. In this study, cloud-to-ground lightning is related in time and space to surface convergence for 244 days during the convective seasons of 1985 and 1986 over a 790 sq-km network at KSC. The method uses surface convergence, particularly the average over the area, to identify the potential for new, local thunderstorm growth, and it can be used to specify the likely time and location of lightning during the life cycle of the convection. A threshold of 75 x 10 to the -6th/s change in divergence is the main criterion used to define a convergence event, and a set of flashes less than 30 min apart defines a lightning event. Time intervals are found from the study to be approximately 1 h from beginning convergence to first flash, and another hour to the end of lightning. The influences of low-level winds and midlevel moisture in determining the location and intensity of convection are discussed. This is the first known dynamically-based forecast method for lightning prediction. The technique, currently in use at KSC, has been shown to be a systematic, quantitative tool for predicting lightning onset in situations where conventional analysis tools such as radar and satellite are limited.

Watson, Andrew I.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Analysis and improvement of the vector quantization in SELP (Stochastically Excited Linear Prediction)

The Stochastically Excited Linear Prediction (SELP) algorithm is described as a speech coding method employing a two-stage vector quantization. The first stage uses an adaptive codebook which efficiently encodes the periodicity of voiced speech, and the second stage uses a stochastic codebook to encode the remainder of the excitation signal. The adaptive codebook performs well when the pitch period of the speech signal is larger than the frame size. An extension is introduced, which increases its performance for the case that the frame size is longer than the pitch period. The performance of the stochastic stage, which improves with frame length, is shown to be best in those sections of the speech signal where a high level of short-term correlations is present. It can be concluded that the SELP algorithm performs best during voiced speech where the pitch period is longer than the frame length.

Kleijn, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Long-term particle flux variability indicated by comparison of Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) timed impacts for LDEF's first year in orbit with impact data for the entire 5.75-year orbital lifetime

The electronic sensors of the Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) recorded precise impact times and approximate directions for submicron to approximately 100-micron size particles on all six primary sides of the spacecraft for the first 346 days of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) orbital mission. Previously-reported analyses of the timed impact data have established their spatio-temporal features, including the demonstration that a preponderance of the particles in this regime are orbital debris and that a large fraction of the debris particles are encountered as megameter-size clouds, some of which persist for long times. Short-term fluxes within such clouds can rise several orders of magnitude above the long-term average. These finding are consistent with the results of the first catastrophic hypervelocity laboratory impacts on a real satellite, recently reported in the press. Analysis continues on the geometric and evolutionary characteristics of these clouds, as well as on the isolation and characterization of the natural micrometeoroid component in the IDE data, but the unexpectedly large short-term variations in debris flux raises the question of how representative an indication of the multi-year average flux is given by the nearly one year of timed data. It has, therefore, always been one of the goals of IDE to conduct an optical survey of the craters on the IDE detectors, to obtain full-mission fluxes for comparisons with the timed data. This work is underway, and the results presently in hand are significant. Optical scanning of the ram and wake (East and West) panels is complete, and it is clear that the first year was in some respects not representative of the subsequent years. The 5.75-year average flux on East panel was 90 percent of the value predicted by the average flux recorded during the first year, while it was only 34 percent on West panel. This suggests that western hemisphere spacecraft launches are a major contributor to the long-term flux and that their contribution is primarily in the smaller end of the size distribution. This conclusion follows from the fact that a closely-spaced series of launch failures (Titan, Delta, Ariane, and Challenger) caused a virtual hiatus in launch activity during a large part of the later years of the LDEF mission. We hope to provide a quantification of the particle size distribution function in this case.

Mulholland, J. Derral↗
NASA NTRS1992

Pitch Control Margin at High Angle of Attack - Quantitative Requirements (Flight Test Correlation With Simulation Predictions)

Aircraft designs that employ relaxed static stability (RSS) have the following problem: reduced pitching moments associated with RSS at high angle of attack (AOA) require a minimum pitch recovery moment or margin to guarantee a safe return from high AOA maneuvers at the most aft center of gravity (CG) encountered during a mission. Recent incidents and mishaps on Class IV aircraft have demonstrated a need for establishing quantitative longitudinal high AOA pitch control margin design guidelines for future aircraft. The Naval Air Warfare Center - Aircraft Division (NA WC-AD) is currently supporting an effort in conjunction with NASA Langley Research Center (NASA LaRC) to quantify such requirements. NASA LaRC has conducted a series of extensive simulation evaluations to define these design guidelines. The purpose of flight tests were to validate the overall research test methodology by comparing pilot comments, pilot ratings, and aircraft response characteristics gathered during inflight recoveries from high AOA conditions to those gathered during the fixed-base simulation sessions. Tests were completed on an F/A-18A in six flights for a total of 9.8 flight hours using an AOA and CG buildup sequence. Flight test results have validated the simulation studies in that pilot rating of high AOA nose-down recoveries were based on the short-term response interval in the forms of pitch acceleration and rate. In addition, flight test has demonstrated that high AOA pitch control margin can be evaluated using a stabilized pushover method.

Flight Testing↗
NASA NTRS1973

Utilization of remotely-sensed data in the management of inland wetlands

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 data and aerial photography are proving to be a useful tool for the inventory and management of inland wetlands. Two examples of the application of remotely-sensed data to specific wetland management needs or requirements are discussed. Studies of the Great Dismal Swamp are utilizing ERTS-1 imagery and color IR photography in: (1) study area selection; (2) field inspection; (3) vegetation mapping; (4) identification of drainage characteristics and moisture regime; (5) location of intensive study areas; and (6) detection of change. Thematic extractions of ERTS-1 data made using the United States Geological Survey's Autographic Theme Extraction System are aiding analyses of swamp hydrologic regime and providing information pertinent to quick recognition and inventory of wetlands from ERTS-1. DCP'S in south Florida wetlands provide near-real time data for water resources managers. Data relayed by satellite can be entered into models to provide predictive data and water storage information for long-term and short-term decision making.

Carter, V.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Optical monitoring of 15 quasars

The data of fifteen quasars are analyzed to determine how well a short-term program of observation can characterize the general optical behavior as compared to a long-term program. Three major research objectives were pursued, namely, to measure archival brightness of the quasars, to compare the brightness observed (mid-1970) to that of the Harvard historical plate collection 1900-1950, and to compare the general behavior during a short-time (two years) to that found over 50 years. Results show that in eight of the 15 quasars the mean magnitude derived from the present short-epoch program differed by 0.11 mag or less from the mean determined in the long-epoch program. The mean difference for all 15 quasars was 0.20 mag. However, in two cases, the short program failed by 0.83 and 0.66 mag, respectively, in predicting the mean brightness. The largest rate of increase in brightness observed was 0.9 mag/day (3C263) and of decrease was 0.44 (3C345), and it is concluded that the rates of decrease and increase in brightness are essentially the same.

Angione, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Accelerated viscoelastic characterization of T300-5208 graphite-epoxy laminates

A viscoelastic response scheme for the accelerated characterization of polymer-based composite laminates in applied to T300/5208 graphite/epoxy. The response of uni-directional specimens is modeled. The transient component of the viscoelastic creep compliance is assumed to follow a power law approximation. A recursive relationship is developed, based upon the Schapery single-integral equation, which allows approximation of a continuous time-varying uniaxial load using discrete steps in stress. The viscoelastic response of T300/5208 to transverse normal and shear stresses is determined unsing 90 deg and 10 deg off-axis tensile specimens. In each case the seven viscoelastic material parameters required in the analysis are determined experimentally using short-term creep and creep recovery tests. It is shown that an accurate measure of the power law exponent is crucial for accurate long-term prediction. A short term test cycle selection procedure is proposed, which should provide useful guidelines for the evaluation of other viscoelastic materials.

Tuttle, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Solar ultraviolet radiation induced variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere

The detectability and interpretation of short-term solar UV induced responses of middle atmospheric ozone, temperature, and dynamics are reviewed. The detectability of solar UV induced perturbations in the middle atmosphere is studied in terms of seasonal and endogenic dynamical variations. The interpretation of low-latitude ozone and possible temperature responses on the solar rotation time scale is examined. The use of these data to constrain or test photochemical model predictions is discussed.

Hood, L. L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Viscoelastic characterization of thin-film polymers exposed to low Earth orbit

The materials made available through the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite provide a set of specimens that can be well characterized and have a known exposure history with reference to atomic oxygen and ultraviolet radiation exposure. Mechanical characteristics measured from control samples and exposed samples provide a data base for predicting the behavior of polymers in low earth orbit. Samples of 1.0 mil thick low density polyethylene were exposed to the low earth orbit environment for a period of six years. These materials were not directly exposed to ram atomic oxygen and offer a unique opportunity for measuring the effect of atomic oxygen and UV radiation on mechanical properties with little concern to the effect of erosion. The viscoelastic characteristics of these materials were measured and compared to the viscoelastic characteristics of control samples. To aid in differentiating the effects of changes in crystallinity resulting from thermal cycling, from the effects of changes in chemical structure resulting from atomic oxygen/UV attack to the polymer, a second set of control specimens, annealed to increase crystallinity, were measured as well. The resulting characterization of these materials will offer insight into the impact of atomic oxygen/UV on the mechanical properties of polymeric materials. The viscoelastic properties measured for the control, annealed, and exposed specimens were the storage and loss modulus as a function of frequency and temperature. From these datum is calculated the viscoelastic master curve derived using the principle of time/temperature superposition. Using the master curve, the relaxation modulus is calculated using the method of Ninomiya and Ferry. The viscoelastic master curve and the stress relaxation modulus provide a direct measure of the changes in the chemical or morphological structure. In addition, the effect of these changes on long-term and short-term mechanical properties is known directly. It should be noted that the dependence on directionality for the polymer films was considered since these films were manufactured by a blown-film process.

Letton, Alan↗
NASA NTRS1995

Operational improvements of long-term predicted ephemerides of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRSs)

Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) orbit determination and prediction are supported by the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). TDRS System (TDRSS)-user satellites require predicted TDRS ephemerides that are up to 10 weeks in length. Previously, long-term ephemerides generated by the FDF included predictions from the White Sands Complex (WSC), which plans and executes TDRS maneuvers. TDRSs typically have monthly stationkeeping maneuvers, and predicted postmaneuver state vectors are received from WSC up to a month in advance. This paper presents the results of an analysis performed in the FDF to investigate more accurate and economical long-term ephemerides for the TDRSs. As a result of this analysis, two new methods for generating long-term TDRS ephemeris predictions have been implemented by the FDF. The Center-of-Box (COB) method models a TDRS as fixed at the center of its stationkeeping box. Using this method, long-term ephemeris updates are made semiannually instead of weekly. The impulse method is used to model more maneuvers. The impulse method yields better short-term accuracy than the COB method, especially for larger stationkeeping boxes. The accuracy of the impulse method depends primarily on the accuracy of maneuver date forecasting.

Kostoff, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Resilience: Concepts and Measures

Inertia, the resistance of an ecosystem property to change under stress, is distinguished from resilience, which refers to the degree, manner. and pace of change or recovery in ecosystem properties following disturbance. In turn, these two terms are differentiated from 'stability'. which is used here to refer to the pattern of natural fluctuation in ecosystem properties in the absence of major exogenous disturbance. Four component attributes of resilience are reviewed in the context of Mediterranean-climate examples. The elasticity component concerns the rate of recovery of an ecosystem property following disturbance; amplitude, the threshold of stress beyond which recovery to the initial state does not occur; hysteresis, the degree to which the pattern of recovery after stress differs from that of deterioration under chronic stress, and malleability the ease with which the ecosystem can become permanently altered. Each ecosystem property will typically reveal a different level of resilience to a given stress and stressor. The degree of recovery should not be expected to be complete in any event, due to sample variability and stochastic events. In cyclicallystable ecosystems, the pattern of recovery should be measured in light of this periodicity, and short-term (within-cycle) recovery distinguished from long-term (between-cycle) recovery. The prediction of resilience properties of ecosystems can be approached through a knowledge of the modular structure of foodwebs, through knowledge of the autecological adaptations of key species to the stressor, or through cumulative experience of the response to disturbance at the community level. At present there is much room for investigation of each of these approaches in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems.

Westman, Walter E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Conventional heart rate variability analysis of ambulatory electrocardiographic recordings fails to predict imminent ventricular fibrillation

OBJECTIVES. The purpose of this report was to study heart rate variability in Holter recordings of patients who experienced ventricular fibrillation during the recording. BACKGROUND. Decreased heart rate variability is recognized as a long-term predictor of overall and arrhythmic death after myocardial infarction. It was therefore postulated that heart rate variability would be lowest when measured immediately before ventricular fibrillation. METHODS. Conventional indexes of heart rate variability were calculated from Holter recordings of 24 patients with structural heart disease who had ventricular fibrillation during monitoring. The control group consisted of 19 patients with coronary artery disease, of comparable age and left ventricular ejection fraction, who had nonsustained ventricular tachycardia but no ventricular fibrillation. RESULTS. Heart rate variability did not differ between the two groups, and no consistent trends in heart rate variability were observed before ventricular fibrillation occurred. CONCLUSIONS. Although conventional heart rate variability is an independent long-term predictor of adverse outcome after myocardial infarction, its clinical utility as a short-term predictor of life-threatening arrhythmias remains to be elucidated.

Non-NASA Center↗