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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

TCAD-Machine Learning Enabled TID Compact Model Development for Commercial SiC MOSFET

We propose a TCAD (Technology Computer Aided Design)-machine learning coupled approach that combines a TCAD tool (Charon), optimization/uncertainty quantification tool (Dakota), surrogate models, and Bayesian learning capabilities. The coupling approach is used for accurate modeling and calibration of total ionizing dose (TID) induced threshold voltage (V th ) shifts in Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) semiconductor devices and to develop physics-informed TID compact models. This versatile approach is applied to model the TID effect in an exemplar COTS 3.3 kV SiC power MOSFET (Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistor). With the Charon-Dakota coupling, we can determine key device geometry and doping values based on device physics, which are difficult to obtain or not available for COTS devices but important for TCAD simulation; additionally, we can efficiently generate thousands of simulation results in a large parameter space, which makes it possible to develop data-driven surrogate models and perform Bayesian calibration. Utilizing the full tool-coupling approach, we achieve calibrated TCAD simulation models that accurately capture the average TID-induced V th shifts behavior with total doses and V th shifts saturation at high doses as observed in experimental data. More importantly, the calibrated TCAD simulations are obtained with determined TID model parameters (e.g., hole trap density and capture cross section) values that contain well quantified uncertainties. Furthermore, we can isolate and quantify the noises that are not captured by the TCAD models but exist in the measured data due to measurements and devices variabilities. Lastly, the calibrated surrogate models are used to develop physics-informed TID compact models. The method is generalizable to other devices and/or radiation conditions with few modifications and can provide well-determined uncertainties.

COTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Closing the Accuracy Gap in Tandem Photovoltaic Testing: An Accessible and Efficient Spectral Tuning Method Using LED-Based Simulators for Research Laboratories and Industry

Accurate performance calibration of multijunction (MJ) solar cells is critical for advancing this technology toward large-scale terrestrial application, yet existing testing methods developed by photovoltaics calibration laboratories remain prohibitively complex and resource intensive for most research laboratories. Current approaches rely on expensive multisource simulators and/or intricate spectral tuning algorithms, limiting accessibility and hindering standardized comparisons of emerging MJ technologies such as perovskite-based tandems. This paper introduces a streamlined spectral irradiance adjustment method for light-emitting diode (LED)-based solar simulators, which are increasingly adopted in the photovoltaics community due to their versatility and cost-effectiveness. The method we present bins LED channels into groups based on the number of junctions of the MJ photovoltaic device under test (DUT) and their corresponding band gaps and incorporates an automated tuning algorithm that eliminates the need to adjust each channel’s irradiance individually. This tuning algorithm requires the relative spectral responsivities of both the DUT and a broadband reference cell, as well as a calibrated spectroradiometer. Measurement validation across various MJ devices, including III-V and perovskite/silicon tandems, demonstrates excellent agreement within 1% with well-established xenon-tungsten multisource simulators and associated tuning algorithms. By enabling precise spectral tuning with readily available equipment and a simple tuning algorithm, our approach bridges the measurement accuracy gap between research laboratories and accredited testing facilities, fostering more reliable device comparisons and accelerating the translation of MJ technologies into real-world energy systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Real-World Signalized Traffic Corridor Control

Signalized traffic control problem has been addressed recently with deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches involving diverse state, action, and reward structures. While significant progress has been noted in the literature, open challenges still remain in the areas of adaptive signal phase timing, coordination in a multi-intersection corridor setting, and consideration of real-world traffic conditions. In the context of deep RL-based problem framing, extensions are needed that enable adaptive signal phase timings in an intersection agent's action space, computationally efficient information sharing among neighboring signalized intersection agents along a corridor, and experimentation in realistic simulation environments. In this paper, we develop a deep Advantage Actor Critic (A2C) multi-agent RL (MARL) approach capturing the research extensions above and apply it within a real-world calibrated Aimsun Next traffic corridor simulation model based on traffic data from the City of Coral Gables, Florida. For a multi-intersection corridor control setting, our numerical simulation experiments with a decentralized A2C MARL algorithm applied at different time periods led to a total average corridor travel delay reduction (expressed in seconds/mile averaged over vehicles) from 4.9% to 19.9% compared to state-of-the-art actuated control.

Shuvo, Salman S. [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of uncertainties in electron-argon collision cross sections

Abstract The predictive capability of a plasma discharge model depends on accurate representations of electron-impact collision cross sections, which determine the corresponding reaction rates and electron transport properties. The values of cross sections can be known only approximately either through experiments or simulations and are thus subject to uncertainties. Quantifying the uncertainties in plasma simulations allows us to assess the reliability of simulations and to provide a basis for interpreting discrepancies between simulations and experiments. For such uncertainty quantification of plasma simulations, it is essential to quantify the uncertainties of the underlying cross sections. Although much effort has been committed to calibrate the cross section values, their uncertainties are not well investigated. We characterize uncertainties in electron-argon atom collision cross sections using a Bayesian framework. Six collision processes—elastic momentum transfer, ionization, and four excitations—are characterized with semi-empirical models, which effectively capture the features important to the macroscopic properties of the plasma. A probability model for the uncertain parameters of these semi-empirical models is developed. Specifically, a Gaussian-process likelihood model is proposed to capture discrepancies among data sets, as well as the model-form inadequacies of the semi-empirical models. Two other likelihood models are compared with the proposed Gaussian-process model, to illustrate the importance of the choice of the likelihood model. The cross section models are calibrated using the electron-beam experiments and ab-inito quantum simulations. The resulting calibrated uncertainties capture well the scattering among the data sets. The calibrated cross section models are further validated against swarm-parameter experiments and zero-dimensional Boltzmann equation simulations of widely used cross section datasets.

Chung, Seung Whan (ORCID:0000000302501549)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bridging the gap between experiments and simulations using machine learning

The physics of inertial confinement fusion is rich and complex. Simulation codes that are used to design experiments are computationally expensive and lack the predictive capability required for extensive parameter exploration in search of a high-performing design for laser direct drive. In this work we use deep learning to build a fast emulator of experiments. To facilitate the development of the deep-learning model, an autoencoder is used to reduce the dimensionality of the input space. Two deep learning models are developed. One model is trained on a vast array of simulation data and is subsequently calibrated to expensive and limited experimental data using a technique known as “transfer learning.” The other model is trained on a statistical model and is subsequently calibrated using experimental data. A comparative study of the two predictive models is carried out. The models potentially reproduce key experimental observables with high accuracy and unprecedented inference times relative to those achieved with simulation codes. These models facilitate rapid exploration of a high dimensional input parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection function of clusters in Dark Energy Survey year 3 data from cross-matching with South Pole Telescope detections

Context. Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. However, modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by noncluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). Aims. We empirically constrained the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy Survey data with the redMaPPer algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). Methods. For matched clusters, we augmented the redMaPPer catalog with the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we used the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multiwavelength data, we explored various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Results. Our analysis reveals a clear preference for models with an additional skewed scatter component associated with projection effects over a purely log-normal scatter model. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge that requires a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A comprehensive numerical investigation on spray models for Direct-Injection Spark-Ignition engines

Gasoline direct-injection spark-ignition (DISI) engines generate a large portion of their unburned hydrocarbon (UHC) and soot emissions during the cold-start phase. A predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling framework can be used to understand the physical processes that characterize fuel spray evolution and fuel-film formation at cold start conditions, which can help to reduce engine-out particulate emissions. This study systematically evaluated spray submodels and developed a set of simulation best practices for physical-numerical submodels with the goal of enabling accurate simulations of liquid spray behavior in a DISI engine. Three comprehensive experimental datasets containing free-spray projected liquid volume (PLV), liquid volume fraction (LVF), and near-field X-ray radiography data were used to validate the simulation results and evaluate the spray submodels. Systematic analysis delved into injected parcel distribution, droplet collision, spray breakup, and evaporation via a detailed assessment of the relevant spray submodels. Moreover, the effects of turbulence models and the initial turbulent flow properties on the liquid spray evolution were examined. Based on extensive calibration efforts, a set of simulation best practices for the free spray was developed and validated against the PLV/LVF data. Simulation results indicated that the uniform distribution for parcel initialization, coupled with appropriate droplet collision submodels, provides an improved spray morphology compared to the cluster distribution. The findings also underscored the importance of calibrating the Kelvin-Helmholtz Rayleigh-Taylor (KH-RT) breakup model constants and droplet heat transfer coefficient scaling factor to achieve favorable agreement regarding measured liquid penetration and spray widths. In conclusion, this study marks a substantial stride towards accurately predicting fuel film evolution and soot formation within DISI engine performance.

ECN Spray G↗
DOE OSTI2024

Augmenting a Simulation Campaign for Hybrid Computer Model and Field Data Experiments

The Kennedy and O’Hagan (KOH) calibration framework uses coupled Gaussian processes (GPs) to meta-model an expensive simulator (first GP), tune its “knobs” (calibration inputs) to best match observations from a real physical/field experiment and correct for any modeling bias (second GP) when predicting under new field conditions (design inputs). There are well-established methods for placement of design inputs for data-efficient planning of a simulation campaign in isolation, that is, without field data: space-filling, or via criterion like minimum integrated mean-squared prediction error (IMSPE). Analogues within the coupled GP KOH framework are mostly absent from the literature. Here, in this study, we derive a closed form IMSPE criterion for sequentially acquiring new simulator data for KOH. We illustrate how acquisitions space-fill in design space, but concentrate in calibration space. Closed form IMSPE precipitates a closed-form gradient for efficient numerical optimization. We demonstrate that our KOH-IMSPE strategy leads to a more efficient simulation campaign on benchmark problems, and conclude with a showcase on an application to equilibrium concentrations of rare earth elements for a liquid–liquid extraction reaction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Segmentation of RDX and TNT in X‐Ray Computed Tomography Reconstructions of Melt‐Cast Explosives

ABSTRACT Three‐dimensional mesoscale characterization of heterogeneous melt‐cast high explosives is challenging because of the difficulty differentiating binder from explosive crystals: two functionally different materials which are typically similar in density by design. Here, we report an algorithm which can differentiate hexahydro‐1,3,5‐trinitro‐1,3,5‐triazine (RDX) from 2,4,6‐trinitrotoluene (TNT) in x‐ray computed tomography (CT) volumes with tens of microns resolution. This method allows us to quantify RDX/TNT content, porosity, and RDX domain size. We calibrated the segmentation algorithm using simulated x‐ray CT volumes containing object models of RDX crystals within a TNT matrix. We then segmented and analyzed CT data for Composition B (Comp B), a 60/40 RDX/TNT mixture, and Cyclotol, a 75/25 RDX/TNT mixture. We examined melt‐cast samples fabricated with 100% theoretical maximum density (TMD) and 85% TMD. For the 100% TMD Comp B and Cyclotol samples, the RDX content values calculated by segmentation were 3% and 9% lower, respectively, than the values measured by high‐performance liquid chromatography on material from the same synthesis lots. This result is consistent with the expected underreporting of RDX content resulting from x‐ray CT resolution limits on RDX particles with diameters smaller than 25 µm. The 85% TMD samples were less accurately segmented with our algorithm due to the confounding presence of voids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance of heavy-flavour jet identification in Lorentz-boosted topologies in proton-proton collisions at √(s) = 13 TeV

Measurements in the highly Lorentz-boosted regime provoke increased interest in probing the Higgs boson properties and in searching for particles beyond the standard model at the LHC. In the CMS Collaboration, various boosted-object tagging algorithms, designed to identify hadronic jets originating from a massive particle decaying to bb̅ or cc̅, have been developed and deployed across a range of physics analyses. This paper highlights their performance on simulated events, and summarizes novel calibration techniques using proton-proton collision data collected at √(s) = 13 TeV during the 2016–2018 LHC data-taking period. Three dedicated methods are used for the calibration in multijet events, leveraging either machine learning techniques, the presence of muons within energetic boosted jets, or the reconstruction of hadronically decaying high-energy Z bosons. The calibration results, obtained through a combination of these approaches, are presented and discussed.

Pattern recognition↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable forest management for carbon, wood and biodiversity must consider natural disturbance regimes

Abstract Forests provide multiple benefits that include sequestering carbon, supporting biodiversity, and providing wood products. Managing temperate forests to achieve these benefits sustainably is challenging given the legacy of past human impacts, the complexity of forest development, and increasing but unpredictable disturbances. These intricacies prompted debate about the most effective management of temperate forests to achieve climate mitigation while sustaining forest productivity, regeneration, and diversity. Most research focused on management impacts under relatively stable environmental conditions, whereas forests are facing increasingly frequent and more severe climatic and biotic disturbances. Here, we used a regionally calibrated forest growth model to simulate the effects of forest management on carbon, biodiversity, and wood production under prevalent natural disturbances in the northeastern US. We developed scenarios combining forest management and disturbance regimes based on assumptions of species-specific tree regeneration and mortality rates. We compared passive management with no cutting that prioritizes maintaining existing forest trees with two common regional harvest practices: exploitative timber harvest that prioritizes short-term wood production and regenerative timber harvest that prioritizes regenerating biodiverse native forest tree seedlings. In the absence of natural disturbance, no cutting provides 41% higher forest carbon storage and 50% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than exploitative or regenerative practices. The presence of drought, windstorm, pest, and disease disturbances altered these outcomes. Regenerative forest management provides 25% higher forest carbon storage and 26% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than no cutting. Our results demonstrate that wood products and their carbon storage and fossil emission avoidance are important for determining the total climate benefits of forest management under natural disturbances. Our findings highlight that natural disturbance regimes should be considered when selecting management to promote multiple forest benefits, suggesting the need for tailored as opposed to one-size-fits-all policies to sustainably manage temperate forests worldwide.

Liu, Weier (ORCID:0000000265914239)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Error quantification and comparison of binary neutron star gravitational waveforms from numerical relativity codes

Future gravitational wave detections of merging binary neutron star systems have the possibility to tightly constrain the equation of state of dense nuclear matter. In order to extract such constraints, gravitational waveform models need to be calibrated to accurate numerical relativity simulations of the late inspiral and merger. In this work, we take an essential step toward classifying the error and potential systematics in current generation numerical relativity simulations of merging binary neutron stars. To this end, we perform a direct comparison of two codes (fil, spec), which differ in many aspects, including the numerical methods and discretizations used and equations solved. We find that despite these different approaches, the codes are—within current numerical resolution bounds—fully consistent, and broadly comparable in cost for a given accuracy level. Our results indicate that the error in the waveforms is primarily dominated by the hydrodynamic evolution, consistent with earlier findings in the literature. Finally, we also discuss current limitations and cost estimates for numerical relativity simulations to reach the accuracies required in the era of next-generation gravitational detectors.

gravitational waves↗
DOE OSTI2025

Code Release for “Unlocking Extreme Space Weather through Advanced Modeling of Legacy Vela Spacecraft” ER

The software being developed for this project has two mains aims. First, a Bayesian Model Calibration (BMC) procedure is being developed to calibrate a spallation model that simulates protons hitting a spacecraft orbiting earth to real data. The procedure will be developed for general data (there is no data release requested as part of this code release). Second, an inverse physics modeling task is being undertaken to map the number of resulting neutrons observed from this process to the expected number of protons that hit the model. This second task is of statistical interest; to publish on it, the code will need to be open source.

Murph, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2026

Process Optimization and Real-Time Control of Synergistic Microalgae Cultivation and Wastewater Treatment (Final Technical Report)

The overarching goal of this work was to accelerate the commercialization of high productivity, mixed community microalgal treatment technologies for the synergistic treatment of wastewater and the production of biofuel feedstocks. This project addressed a critical barrier to the financial viability and energy efficiency of algal wastewater treatment: an inability to design and operate high-rate processes that reliably achieve target effluent qualities, areal productivities, and biochemical compositions (lipid, protein, carbohydrate content) despite fluctuations in wastewater composition, weather, and microbial communities. Key outcomes from this work include an optimized and controlled Advanced Biological Nutrient Recovery (ABNR) design as well as a suite of open-source tools that include a calibrated and validated algae process simulator in QSDsan and a novel low-cost, real-time microbial monitoring tool. These tools can be leveraged by other algal cultivation and wastewater treatment technology developers in future work.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗