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DOE OSTI2025

Potentials of mean force fail to describe chemical bond-breaking in solution

Many liquid phase studies assume that the potential energy surfaces of reacting molecules are the same as in the gas phase, neglecting complex solvent dynamics that can completely alter the nature of chemical reactivity. Even studies that include solvent effects typically only consider them in an average, equilibrium way as part of a potential of mean force (PMF). In this work, we use mixed quantum/classical simulations to compare how equilibrium and non-equilibrium solvent motions affect the photodissociation of a simple diatomic molecule, NaK + , in liquid tetrahydrofuran. A PMF analysis shows that as the excited-state molecule dissociates with the solvent at equilibrium, the bonding electron remains associated with K + at short bond distances but eventually localizes on Na + at the end of dissociation. When we examine non-equilibrium dynamical photodissociation trajectories, however, we find that they fall into three distinct categories: about a quarter of them have the bonding electron mainly associated with Na + , another quarter stay mainly associated with K + , and about half have the bonding electron shared roughly equally between the two ions. The results show that equilibrium PMFs cannot accurately describe the dynamics of bond-breaking chemical reactions in solution because there is insufficient time for the solvent to reach equilibrium on the time scale over which bond dissociation occurs. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the solvent coupling between the electronic energy surfaces is similar at and away from equilibrium, suggesting that other factors, such as solute velocity-driven solvent memory effects, play a more important role in explaining the failure of the equilibrium PMF to predict the non-equilibrium dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic embedding of effective harmonic normal mode vibrations in all-atomistic energy gap fluctuations: Case study of light harvesting 2 complex

Environmental effects in excitation energy transfer have mostly been modeled by baths of harmonic oscillators, but to what extent such modeling provides a reliable description of actual interactions between molecular systems and environments remains an open issue. Here, we address this issue by investigating fluctuations in the excitation energies of the light harvesting 2 complex using a realistic all-atomistic simulation of the potential energy surface. Our analyses reveal that molecular motions exhibit significant anharmonic features, even for underdamped intramolecular vibrations. In particular, we find that the anharmonicity contributes to the broadening of spectral densities and substantial overlaps between neighboring peaks, which complicates the meaning of mode frequencies constituting a bath model. Thus, we develop a strategy to construct a minimally underdamped harmonic bath that has a clear connection to all-atomistic dynamics by utilizing actual normal modes of molecules but optimizing their frequencies such that the resulting bath model can best reproduce the all-atomistic simulation results. By subtracting the underdamped contribution from the entire fluctuations, we also show that identifying a residual spectral density representing all other contributions with overdamped behavior is possible. We find that this can be fitted well with a well-established analytic form of a spectral density function or, alternatively, modeled as explicit time dependent fluctuations with muti-exponential or power law type correlation functions. We provide an assessment and the implications of these possibilities. The approach presented here can also serve as a general strategy to construct a simplified bath model that can effectively represent the underlying all-atomistic bath dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Blockage effects in the chemotaxis of diffusiophoretic particles

Transport mechanisms at the micro- and nano-scale play an essential role in regulating intracellular organization. Recent work indicates that directed motion of constituents inside cells can emerge through diffusiophoretic transport, in which colloidal particles move under the influence of chemical gradients. Here, we examine how blockers—passive or actively consuming—reshape those gradients and thereby influence the motion of diffusiophoretic particles. By combining analytical solutions with finite element simulations, we first show that a single blocker can distort a background gradient enough to create or eliminate stagnation points, significantly modifying particle transport. We then introduce a second, explicitly sized blocker at one of these stagnation points and measure how its finite radius alters the diffusiophoretic velocity field for a test particle. Even moderate changes in the second blockers size can cause noticeable shifts in the substrate distribution, highlighting the importance of accounting for explicit particle radii under crowded or consumption-driven conditions. Our findings underscore that subtle geometric variations—such as the radii and positions of two or more blockers—can profoundly affect diffusiophoretic motion, providing a more complete picture of how blocking and crowding phenomena shape intracellular transport.

Song, Zehao [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2026

KTaO 3 -Based Supercurrent Diode

The supercurrent diode effect (SDE), characterized by nonreciprocal critical currents, represents a promising building block for future dissipationless electronics and quantum circuits. Realizing SDE requires breaking both time-reversal and inversion symmetry in the device. Here we use conductive atomic force microscope (c-AFM) lithography to pattern reconfigurable superconducting weak links (WLs) at the LaAlO 3 /KTaO 3 (LAO/KTO) interface. By deliberately engineering the WL geometry at the nanoscale, we realize SDE in these devices in the presence of modest out-of-plane magnetic fields. The SDE polarity can be reversed by simply changing the WL position, and the rectification efficiency reaches up to 13% under optimal magnetic field conditions. Time-dependent Ginzburg–Landau simulations reveal that the observed SDE originates from asymmetric vortex motion in the inversion-symmetry-breaking device geometry. This demonstration of SDE in the LAO/KTO system establishes a versatile platform for investigating and engineering vortex dynamics, forming the basis for engineered quantum circuit elements.

C-AFM lithography↗

DOE OSTI2024

Are Marine Low Cloud Droplet Concentrations Buffered by Entrained Aitken‐Mode Aerosol (Final Technical Report)

During the summertime, the high-latitude oceans come to life with green phytoplankton, which gain their energy from sunlight and are food for sea creatures small and large. When the phytoplankton are eaten or die, sulfur-rich gases are released under the ocean surface and mix into the air. Observations suggest that, over the Southern Ocean, frequent storms lift this air high into the atmosphere while raining out particulates like salt. As a result, the sulfur-rich air then spawns high concentrations of small ‘Aitken-mode’ aerosol particles. We hypothesize that these particles work their way down into the marine boundary layer, where they can replenish the supply of cloud-condensation nuclei scavenged by frequent precipitation. Further, this process maintains high concentrations of liquid cloud droplets in austral summer, promoting more sunlight to be reflected to space. We call this ‘Aitken buffering’. The primary objective of this project has been to document and test what role Aitken-mode aerosols play in clouds over the Southern Ocean and elsewhere. This effort has included three main components: 1) developing a computer model that realistically simulates the aerosol processes and the small-scale turbulent air motions that move aerosols around and create the clouds, 2) using that model to interpret and extend these observations for process understanding, by allowing different factors that contribute to the aerosol budget, such as surface wind speed, precipitation, surface gas exchange, etc. to be separated, and 3) studying Aitken-mode aerosol and its variability with a focus over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, using data from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites and other available observations. Initial computer studies in more idealized conditions found that elevated concentrations of Aitken-mode aerosols above the clouds could help prevent the breakup of those clouds by acting as cloud-condensation nuclei after they were entrained into the cloudy boundary layer. Simulations of a day during the ACE-ENA field campaign showed that Aitken-mode aerosols could also prevent cloud breakup under more realistic conditions. A new method that extracts information about Aitken-mode aerosols from measurements of aerosols onto which cloud droplets can form finds that Aitken-mode aerosols do vary seasonally over the Southern Ocean, with a peak in summertime, as described above. Other work during this project has focused on understanding how patterns of water vapor, clouds and precipitation are coupled within low-lying clouds over the oceans, and also on how cloud droplets cluster within clouds and how the distribution of cloud droplet sizes change as dry air is mixed into clouds, with the latter studies also using observations from ACE-ENA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Numerical simulations of three-dimensional ion crystal dynamics in a Penning trap using the fast multipole method

We simulate the dynamics, including laser cooling, of three-dimensional (3-D) ion crystals confined in a Penning trap using a newly developed molecular dynamics-like code. The numerical integration of the ions’ equations of motion is accelerated using the fast multipole method to calculate the Coulomb interaction between ions, which allows us to efficiently study large ion crystals with thousands of ions. In particular, we show that the simulation time scales linearly with ion number, rather than with the square of the ion number. By treating the ions’ absorption of photons as a Poisson process, we simulate individual photon scattering events to study laser cooling of 3-D ellipsoidal ion crystals. Initial simulations suggest that these crystals can be efficiently cooled to ultracold temperatures, aided by the mixing of the easily cooled axial motional modes with the low frequency planar modes. In our simulations of a spherical crystal of 1000 ions, the planar kinetic energy is cooled to several millikelvin in a few milliseconds while the axial kinetic energy and total potential energy are cooled even further. This suggests that 3-D ion crystals could be well suited as platforms for future quantum science experiments.

Zaris, John (ORCID:0009000196476323)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transformational Regional-Scale Earthquake Simulations with the DOE EarthQuake SIMulation Exascale Framework

Earthquakes present worldwide risk to economic and human safety. The 2023 earthquakes in Turkiye provided a reminder of the potential for catastrophic consequences with 50,700 deaths and 15.7 million people affected. The ability to predict ground motions and infrastructure damage for earthquakes continues to be a challenging problem for scientists and engineers. Until now, estimates of ground motions have been performed empirically by looking at sparse data from past earthquakes. This approach can provide statistical information on intensity amplitudes but cannot inform site-specific ground motions essential to developing the most effective resilience. Interest has grown in large-scale computational models to simulate earthquakes at regional scale. The U.S. Department of Energy EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) framework was developed for regional-scale earthquake simulations at unprecedented fidelity, taking advantage of emerging GPU-accelerated systems. This article describes the EQSIM workflow and demonstrates regional-scale simulations with the new computational capability available to scientists in their quest to mitigate future disasters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Molecular architecture and functional dynamics of the pre-incision complex in nucleotide excision repair

Nucleotide excision repair (NER) is vital for genome integrity. Yet, our understanding of the complex NER protein machinery remains incomplete. Combining cryo-EM and XL-MS data with AlphaFold2 predictions, we build an integrative model of the NER pre-incision complex(PInC). Here TFIIH serves as a molecular ruler, defining the DNA bubble size and precisely positioning the XPG and XPF nucleases for incision. Using simulations and graph theoretical analyses, we unveil PInC’s assembly, global motions, and partitioning into dynamic communities. Remarkably, XPG caps XPD’s DNA-binding groove and bridges both junctions of the DNA bubble, suggesting a novel coordination mechanism of PInC’s dual incision. XPA rigging interlaces XPF/ERCC1 with RPA, XPD, XPB, and 5' ssDNA, exposing XPA’s crucial role in licensing the XPF/ERCC1 incision. Mapping disease mutations onto our models reveals clustering into distinct mechanistic classes, elucidating xeroderma pigmentosum and Cockayne syndrome disease etiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Overview of ASDEX upgrade results in view of ITER and DEMO

Experiments on ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) in 2021 and 2022 have addressed a number of critical issues for ITER and EU DEMO. A major objective of the AUG programme is to shed light on the underlying physics of confinement, stability, and plasma exhaust in order to allow reliable extrapolation of results obtained on present day machines to these reactor-grade devices. Concerning pedestal physics, the mitigation of edge localised modes (ELMs) using resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) was found to be consistent with a reduction of the linear peeling-ballooning stability threshold due to the helical deformation of the plasma. Conversely, ELM suppression by RMPs is ascribed to an increased pedestal transport that keeps the plasma away from this boundary. Candidates for this increased transport are locally enhanced turbulence and a locked magnetic island in the pedestal. The enhanced D-alpha (EDA) and quasi-continuous exhaust (QCE) regimes have been established as promising ELM-free scenarios. Here, the pressure gradient at the foot of the H-mode pedestal is reduced by a quasi-coherent mode, consistent with violation of the high-n ballooning mode stability limit there. This is suggestive that the EDA and QCE regimes have a common underlying physics origin. In the area of transport physics, full radius models for both L- and H-modes have been developed. These models predict energy confinement in AUG better than the commonly used global scaling laws, representing a large step towards the goal of predictive capability. A new momentum transport analysis framework has been developed that provides access to the intrinsic torque in the plasma core. In the field of exhaust, the X-Point Radiator (XPR), a cold and dense plasma region on closed flux surfaces close to the X-point, was described by an analytical model that provides an understanding of its formation as well as its stability, i.e., the conditions under which it transitions into a deleterious MARFE with the potential to result in a disruptive termination. With the XPR close to the divertor target, a new detached divertor concept, the compact radiative divertor, was developed. Here, the exhaust power is radiated before reaching the target, allowing close proximity of the X-point to the target. No limitations by the shallow field line angle due to the large flux expansion were observed, and sufficient compression of neutral density was demonstrated. With respect to the pumping of non-recycling impurities, the divertor enrichment was found to mainly depend on the ionisation energy of the impurity under consideration. In the area of MHD physics, analysis of the hot plasma core motion in sawtooth crashes showed good agreement with nonlinear 2-fluid simulations. This indicates that the fast reconnection observed in these events is adequately described including the pressure gradient and the electron inertia in the parallel Ohm’s law. Concerning disruption physics, a shattered pellet injection system was installed in collaboration with the ITER International Organisation. Thanks to the ability to vary the shard size distribution independently of the injection velocity, as well as its impurity admixture, it was possible to tailor the current quench rate, which is an important requirement for future large devices such as ITER. Progress was also made modelling the force reduction of VDEs induced by massive gas injection on AUG. The H-mode density limit was characterised in terms of safe operational space with a newly developed active feedback control method that allowed the stability boundary to be probed several times within a single discharge without inducing a disruptive termination. Regarding integrated operation scenarios, the role of density peaking in the confinement of the ITER baseline scenario (high plasma current) was clarified. The usual energy confinement scaling ITER98(p,y) does not capture this effect, but the more recent H20 scaling does, highlighting again the importance of developing adequate physics based models. Advanced tokamak scenarios, aiming at large non-inductive current fraction due to non-standard profiles of the safety factor in combination with high normalised plasma pressure were studied with a focus on their access conditions. A method to guide the approach of the targeted safety factor profiles was developed, and the conditions for achieving good confinement were clarified. Based on this, two types of advanced scenarios (‘hybrid’ and ‘elevated’

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Approach and rotation of reconnecting topological defect lines in liquid crystal

Topological defects are a universal concept across many disciplines, such as crystallography, liquid-crystalline physics, low-temperature physics, cosmology, and even biology. In nematic liquid crystals, topological defects called disclinations have been widely studied. For their three-dimensional (3D) dynamics, however, only recently have theoretical approaches dealing with fully 3D configurations been reported. Further, recent experiments have observed 3D disclination line reconnections, a phenomenon characteristic of defect line dynamics, but detailed discussions were limited to the case of approximately parallel defects. In this paper, we focus on the case of two disclination lines that approach at finite angles and lie in separate planes, a more fundamentally 3D reconnection configuration. Observing and analyzing such reconnection events, we find the square-root law of the distance between disclinations and the decrease of the interdisclination angle over time. We compare the experimental results with theory and find qualitative agreement on the scaling of distance and angle with time, but quantitative disagreement on distance and angle relative mobilities. To probe this disagreement, we derive the equations of motion for systems with reduced twist constant and also carry out simulations for this case. These, together with the experimental results, suggest that deformations of disclinations may be responsible for the disagreement. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Approach and rotation of reconnecting topological defect lines in liquid crystal

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Fast and accurate calculation of EXAFS Debye-Waller factors in U⁢O2 using the dynamical matrix method

Theoretical modeling of bonding dynamics in metal oxides is required for predicting their thermal conductivity, catalytic activity, and mechanical properties. A primary challenge is the scarcity of experimental methods for validating theoretical predictions of these atomic-scale dynamics. This work presents a workflow that uses experimental extended x-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) data collected at high temperatures to validate an interatomic force field for uranium dioxide (UO2), an important model material. The validated force field is then used to drive computationally intensive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and as input for the much faster dynamical matrix Debye-Waller (DMDW) method. The predicted values of the Debye-Waller factors from the DMDW calculations are in good agreement with those obtained from the MD simulations, with residual pair-specific differences attributable to quantum zero-point motion at low temperatures and lattice anharmonicity at high temperatures. We further show that theoretical EXAFS spectra constructed directly from DMDW-derived Debye-Waller factors reproduce the experimental data (at relatively low temperatures) with accuracy comparable to full MD-EXAFS, providing an additional validation of the choice of the potential. This study establishes a validated, rapid computational pathway for modeling bond dynamics, naturally incorporating quantum nuclear\\\\r\\\\nstatistics absent in classical simulations, which are essential for the mechanistic understanding of complex oxide materials.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bulk Motions in the Black Hole Jet Sheath as a Candidate for the Comptonizing Corona

Abstract Using two-dimensional general relativistic resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulations, we investigate the properties of the sheath separating the black hole jet from the surrounding medium. We find that the electromagnetic power flowing through the jet sheath is comparable to the overall accretion power of the black hole. The sheath is an important site of energy dissipation as revealed by the copious appearance of reconnection layers and plasmoid chains. About 20% of the sheath power is dissipated between 2 and 10 gravitational radii. The plasma in the dissipative sheath moves along a nearly paraboloidal surface with transrelativistic bulk motions dominated by the radial component, whose dimensionless 4-velocity is ∼1.2 ± 0.5. In the frame moving with the mean (radially dependent) velocity, the distribution of stochastic bulk motions resembles a Maxwellian with an “effective bulk temperature” of ∼100 keV. Scaling the global simulation to Cygnus X-1 parameters gives a rough estimate of the Thomson optical depth across the jet sheath, ∼0.01–0.1, and it may increase in future magnetohydrodynamic simulations with self-consistent radiative losses. These properties suggest that the dissipative jet sheath may be a viable “coronal” region, capable of upscattering seed soft photons into a hard, nonthermal tail, as seen during the hard states of X-ray binaries and active galactic nuclei.

Sridhar, Navin (ORCID:0000000255199550)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conformational Dynamics of Bacteriochlorophyll c in Chlorosomes from the bchQ Mutant of Chlorobaculum tepidum

In contrast to the common viewpoint that bacteriochlorophyll (BChl) motion is largely absent within the chlorosome assembly, physics-based modeling points to a crucial role of the nanoscale librational motion of the macrocycle for the transfer of excitons. To elucidate this motion experimentally, compositional uniformity and high sensitivity are required. We focused on uniformly 13 C labeled chlorosome preparations from the bchQ mutant Chlorobaculum tepidum with significantly enhanced structural homogeneity. The librational motion is characterized using Rotational Echo DOuble Resonance (REDOR), and in addition, the impact of temperature on specific functionalities within BChl molecules is studied with 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional dipolar and scalar-based MAS NMR measurements. Results show the gradual freezing of the tails and side chains of the BChls with decreasing temperature. However, the librational motion analyzed by measuring the 5C–H dipolar coupling strength obtained from REDOR data sets persists at different temperatures. REDOR simulations show a close match to the experimental dephasing frequency of oscillation for a dipolar coupling strength of 17.5 ± 0.5 kHz which is considerably less than the dipolar coupling strength of 22.7 kHz in the rigid limit. Following a two-site jump model, we arrive at an estimate for BChl libration sampling at an angle of θ = 48 ± 4°, corroborating that the macrocycle indeed experiences significant librational motion on a time scale that is short compared to the NMR measurement time. This finding is in full quantitative support of the dominant rotational motion exhibited by the BChl macrocycle estimated from early MD simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

High order interpolation of magnetic fields with vector potential reconstruction for particle simulations

We propose a method for interpolating divergence-free continuous magnetic fields via vector potential reconstruction using Hermite interpolation, which ensures high-order continuity for applications requiring adaptive, high-order ordinary differential equation (ODE) integrators, such as the Dormand-Prince method. The method provides C(m) continuity and achieves high-order accuracy, making it particularly suited for particle trajectory integration and Poincaré section analysis under optimal integration order and timestep adjustments. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the Hermite interpolation method preserves volume and continuity, which are critical for conserving toroidal canonical momentum and magnetic moment in guiding center simulations, especially over long-term trajectory integration. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of insufficient derivative continuity on Runge-Kutta schemes and show how it degrades accuracy at low error tolerances, introducing discontinuity-induced truncation errors. Lastly, we demonstrate performant Poincaré section analysis in two relevant settings of field data collocated from finite element meshes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Motion Dynamics of Motile Microbes in Pore-Networks and its Implications for Reactive Transport Processes

This report outlines new methods to improve simulations of microbial transport and microbially mediated reactions in porous media. A range of experimental, modeling, and machine learning tools are introduced to make these simulations faster, more reliable, and useful for real-world applications. At the microscopic level, the study investigates how different types of bacteria move through confined spaces. A new artificial intelligence tool called DeepTrackStat, is introduced to track motions dynamics as observed in videos of particles migrating through pore networks. This tool is especially helpful for studying fast-moving microbes and requires less computing power than traditional tracking methods. At larger scales, the research looks at how microbes and chemicals interact in zones where surface water and groundwater meet. To connect the small- and large-scale findings, the study presents a neural network model called STAMNet. This tool helps scale up detailed small-scale microbial motion behaviors to predict large-scale environmental changes more efficiently. By combining lab experiments, computer models, and artificial intelligence, the research presented supports smarter environmental decision-making, especially in bioremediation of contaminated groundwater and protection of water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Score-Based Physics-Informed Neural Networks for High-Dimensional Fokker–Planck Equations

The Fokker-Planck (FP) equation is a foundational partial differential equation (PDE) in stochastic processes involving Brownian motions. However, the curse of dimensionality (CoD) poses a formidable challenge when dealing with high-dimensional FP equations. Although Monte Carlo simulation and (vanilla) Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have shown the potential to tackle CoD, both methods exhibit significant numerical errors in high dimensions when dealing with the probability density function (PDF) associated with Brownian motion. The point-wise PDF values tend to decrease exponentially as dimensionality increases, surpassing the precision of numerical simulations and resulting in substantial errors. In addition, due to its massive sampling, Monte Carlo fails to offer fast sampling. Modeling the logarithm likelihood (LL) via vanilla PINNs transforms the FP equation into a notoriously difficult Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, which is impractical for PINN learning, whose error grows rapidly with dimension. To this end, we propose a novel approach utilizing a score-based solver to fit the score function in stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The score function, defined as the gradient of the LL, plays a fundamental role in inferring LL and PDF and enables fast SDE sampling, offering an effective means to overcome the CoD. Three fitting methods, Score Matching (SM), Sliced Score Matching (SSM), and Score-PINN, are introduced, each contributing unique advantages in computational complexity, accuracy, and generality. The proposed score-based SDE solver operates in two stages: first, employing score matching or Score-PINN to acquire the score function; and second, solving the LL via an ordinary differential equation (ODE) using the obtained score function. Comparative evaluations across these methods showcase varying trade-offs. The proposed methodology is evaluated across diverse SDEs, including anisotropic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, geometric Brownian motion, and Brownian motion with varying eigenspace. We also test various distributions, including Gaussian, Log-normal, Laplace, and Cauchy distributions. The numerical results demonstrate the score-based SDE solver’s stability, speed, and performance across different experimental settings, solidifying its potential as a solution to CoD for high-dimensional FP equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Optical Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in Active Galactic Nuclei Light Curves: Fourier versus Bayesian Periodicity Detection

Simulations predict that supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) will exhibit periodic brightness variations that may exceed the stochastic variability intrinsic to active galactic nuclei (AGN). In this paper, we simulate SMBHBs with damped random walk (DRW) AGN variability and an added sinusoidal signal from the orbital motion, and test three methods—a generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram (GLSP), a nested Bayesian sampler (NBS), and a weighted wavelet z-transform (or WWZ)—to determine which is best at recovering the periodicity. Our simulated light curves follow the properties of the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (or CRTS), Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) to best inform current and future SMBHB searches. We map a broad range of parameter space and identify which DRW-only light curves best mimic periodicity and pass each method’s model selection. The NBS performs best at detecting periodicity and filtering out DRW-only light curves. Combined candidate selection with both the NBS and GLSP significantly reduces false-positive rates (FPRs) with marginal impact on true-positive rates (TPRs). With this joint model selection pipeline, we find the lowest FPRs in ZTF-like simulations and the highest detection rates in LSST-like simulations. Using a modified computation of the false-alarm probability with GLSP, we efficiently triage LSST AGN light curves (∼10 7 light curves in ∼10–30 hr) and achieve TPRs and FPRs of ∼40% and ∼0.5%, respectively.

Banaszak, Sebastian M. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashvill↗