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Vertical velocity in oceanic convection off tropical Australia

Time series of 1-Hz vertical velocity data collected during aircraft penetrations of oceanic cumulonimbus clouds over the western Pacific warm pool as part of the Equatorial Mesoscale Experiment (EMEX) are analyzed for updraft and downdraft events called cores. An updraft core is defined as occurring whenever the vertical velocity exceeds 1 m/sec for at least 500 m. A downdraft core is defined analogously. Over 19,000 km of straight and level flight legs are used in the analysis. Five hundred eleven updraft cores and 253 downdraft cores are included in the dataset. Core properties are summarized as distributions of average and maximum vertical velocity, diameter, and mass flux in four altitude intervals between 0.2 and 5.8 km. Distributions are approximately lognormal at all levels. Examination of the variation of the statistics with height suggests a maximum in vertical velocity between 2 and 3 km; slightly lower or equal vertical velocity is indicated at 5 km. Near the freezing level, virtual temperature deviations are found to be slightly positive for both updraft and downdraft cores. The excess in updraft cores is much smaller than that predicted by parcel theory. Comparisons with other studies that use the same analysis technique reveal that EMEX cores have approximately the same strength as cores of other oceanic areas, despite warmer sea surface temperatures. Diameter and mass flux are greater than those in the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GATE) but smaller than those in hurricane rainbands. Oceanic cores are much weaker and appear to be slightly smaller than those observed over land during the Thunderstorm Project. The markedly weaker oceanic vertical velocities below 5.8 km (compared to the continental cores) cannot be attributed to smaller total convective available potential energy or to very high water loading. Rather, it is suggested that water loading, although less than adiabatic, is more effective in reducing buoyancy of oceanic cores because of the smaller potential buoyancy below 5.8 km. Entrainment appears to be more effective in reducing buoyancy to well below adiabatic values in oceanic cores, a result consistent with the smaller oceanic core diameters in the lower cloud layer. It is speculated further that core diameters are related to boundary layer depth, which is clearly smaller over the oceans.

Lucas, Christopher

A new model for Mars atmospheric dust based upon analysis of ultraviolet through infrared observations from Mariner 9, Viking, and Phobos

We propose key modifications to the Toon et al. (1977) model of the particle size distribution and composition of Mars atmospheric dust, based on a variety of spacecraft and wavelength observations of the dust. A much broader (r(sub eff) variance approximately 0.8 micrometers), smaller particle size (r(sub mode) approximately 0.02 micrometers) distribution coupled with a 'palagonite-like' composition is argued to fit the complete ultraviolet-to-30-micrometer absorption properties of the dust better than the montmorillonite-basalt, r(sub eff) variance = 0.4 micrometers, r(sub mode) = 0.40 dust model of Toon et al. Mariner 9 (infrared interferometer spectrometer) IRIS spectra of high atmospheric dust opacities during the 1971-1972 Mars global dust storm are analyzed in terms of the Toon et al. dust model, and a Hawaiian palagonite sample (Rousch et al., 1991) with two different size distribution models incorporating smaller dust particle sizes. Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) emmission-phase-function (EPF) observations at 9 micrometers are analyzed to retrieve 9-micrometer dust opacities coincident with solar band dust opacities obtained from the same EPF sequences (Clancy and Lee, 1991). These EPF dust opacities provide an independent measurement of the visible/9-micrometer extinction opacity ratio (greater than or = 2) for Mars atmospheric dust, which is consistent with a previous measurement by Martin (1986). Model values for the visible/9-micrometer opacity ratio and the ultraviolet and visible single-scattering albedos are calculated for the palagonite model with the smaller particle size distributions compared to the same properties for the Toon et al. model of dust. The montmorillonite model of the dust is found to fit the detailed shape of the dust 9-micrometer absorption well. However, it predicts structured, deep aborptions at 20 micrometers which are not observed and requires a separate ultraviolet-visible absorbing component to match the observed behavior of the dust in this wavelength region. The modeled palagonite does not match the 8-to 9-micrometer absorption presented by the dust in the IRIS spectra, probably due to its low SiO2 content (31%). However, it does provide consistent levels of ultraviolet/visible absorption, 9-to 12-micrometer absorption, and a lack of structured absorption at 20 micrometers. The ratios of dust extinction opacities at visible, 9 micrometers, and 30 micrometers are strongly affected by the dust particle size distribution. The Toon et al. dust size distribution (r(sub mode) = 0.40,r(sub eff) variance = 0.4 micrometers, r(sub cwmu) = 2.7 micrometers) predicts the correct ratio of the 9- to 30-micrometer opacity, but underpredicts the visible/9-micrometer opacity ratio considerably (1 versus greater than or = 2). A similar particle distribution width with smaller particle sizes (r(sub mode) = 0.17, r(sub eff) variance = 0.4 micrometers, r(sub cwmu) = 1.2 micrometers) will fit the observed visible/9-micrometer opacity ratio, but overpredicts the observed 9-micrometer/30-micrometer opacity ratio. A smaller and much broader particle size distribution (r(sub mode) = 0.002, r(sub eff) variance = 0.8 micrometers, r(sub cwmu) = 1.8 micrometers) can fit both dust opacity ratios. Overall, the nanocrystalline structure of palagonite coupled with a smaller, broader distribution of dust particle sizes provides a more consistent fit than the Toon et al. model of the dust to the IRIS spectra, the observed visible/9-micrometer dust opacity ratio, the Phobos occulation measurements of the dust particle sizes (Chassefiere et al., 1992), and the weakness of surface near IR absorptions expected for clay minerals (Clark, 1992; Bell and Crisp, 1993).

Clancy, R. T.

A new model for Mars atmospheric dust based upon analysis of ultraviolet through infrared observations from Mariner 9, Viking, and Phobos

We propose key modifications to the Toon et al. (1977) model of the particle size distribution and composition of Mars atmospheric dust, based on a variety of spacecraft and wavelength observations of the dust. A much broader (r(sub eff)variance-0.8 micron), smaller particle size (r(sub mode)-0.02 microns) distribution coupled with a "palagonite-like" composition is argued to fit the complete ultraviolet-to-30-micron absorption properties of the dust better than the montmorillonite-basalt r(sub eff)variance= 0.4 micron, r(sub mode)= 0.40 micron dust model of Toon et al. Mariner 9 (infrared interferometer spectrometer) IRIS spectra of high atmospheric dust opacities during the 1971 - 1972 Mars global dust storm are analyzed in terms of the Toon et al. dust model, and a Hawaiian palagonite sample with two different size distribution models incorporating smaller dust particle sizes. Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper (IRTM) emission-phase-function (EPF) observations at 9 microns are analyzed to retrieve 9-micron dust opacities coincident with solar band dust opacities obtained from the same EPF sequences. These EPF dust opacities provide an independent measurement of the visible/9-microns extinction opacity ratio (> or equal to 2) for Mars atmospheric dust, which is consistent with a previous measurement by Martin (1986). Model values for the visible/9-microns opacity ratio and the ultraviolet and visible single-scattering albedos are calculated for the palagonite model with the smaller particle size distributions and compared to the same properties for the Toon et al. model of dust. The montmorillonite model of the dust is found to fit the detailed shape of the dust 9-micron absorption well. However, it predicts structured, deep absorptions at 20 microns which are not observed and requires a separate ultraviolet-visible absorbing component to match the observed behavior of the dust in this wavelength region. The modeled palagonite does not match the 8- to 9-micron absorption presented by the dust in the IRIS spectra, probably due to its low SiO2 content (31%). However, it does provide consistent levels of ultraviolet/visible absorption, 9- to 12-micron absorption, and a lack of structured absorption at 20 microns. The ratios of dust extinction opacities at visible, 9 microns, and 30 microns are strongly affected by the dust particle size distribution. The Toon et al. dust size distribution (r(sub mode)= 0.40, r(sub eff)variance= 0.4 microns, r(sub cw mu)= 2.7 microns) predicts the correct ratio of the 9- to 30-micron opacity, but underpredicts the visible/9-micron opacity ratio considerably (1 versus > or equal to 2). A similar particle distribution width with smaller particle sizes (r(sub mode)= 0.17, r(sub eff)variance= 0.4 microns, r(sub cw mu)=1.2 microns) will fit the observed visible/9-micron opacity ratio, but overpredicts the observed 9-micron/30-micron opacity ratio. A smaller and much broader particle size distribution (r(sub mode)= 0.02, r(sub eff)variance= 0.8 microns, r(sub cw mu)= 1.8 microns) can fit both dust opacity ratios. Overall, the nanocrystalline structure of palagonite coupled with a smaller, broader distribution of dust particle sizes provides a more consistent fit than the Toon et al. model of the dust to the IRIS spectra, the observed visible/9-micron dust opacity ratio, the Phobos occultation measurements of dust particle sizes, and the weakness of surface near IR absorptions expected for clay minerals.

Clancy, R. T.

Comet Dust After Deep Impact

When the Deep Impact Mission hit Jupiter Family comet 9P/Tempel 1, an ejecta crater was formed and an pocket of volatile gases and ices from 10-30 m below the surface was exposed (A Hearn et aI. 2005). This resulted in a gas geyser that persisted for a few hours (Sugita et al, 2005). The gas geyser pushed dust grains into the coma (Sugita et a1. 2005), as well as ice grains (Schulz et al. 2006). The smaller of the dust grains were submicron in radii (0-25.3 micron), and were primarily composed of highly refractory minerals including amorphous (non-graphitic) carbon, and silicate minerals including amorphous (disordered) olivine (Fe,Mg)2SiO4 and pyroxene (Fe,Mg)SiO3 and crystalline Mg-rich olivine. The smaller grains moved faster, as expected from the size-dependent velocity law produced by gas-drag on grains. The mineralogy evolved with time: progressively larger grains persisted in the near nuclear region, having been imparted with slower velocities, and the mineralogies of these larger grains appeared simpler and without crystals. The smaller 0.2-0.3 micron grains reached the coma in about 1.5 hours (1 arc sec = 740 km), were more diverse in mineralogy than the larger grains and contained crystals, and appeared to travel through the coma together. No smaller grains appeared at larger coma distances later (with slower velocities), implying that if grain fragmentation occurred, it happened within the gas acceleration zone. These results of the high spatial resolution spectroscopy (GEMINI+Michelle: Harker et 4. 2005, 2006; Subaru+COMICS: Sugita et al. 2005) revealed that the grains released from the interior were different from the nominally active areas of this comet by their: (a) crystalline content, (b) smaller size, (c) more diverse mineralogy. The temporal changes in the spectra, recorded by GEMIM+Michelle every 7 minutes, indicated that the dust mineralogy is inhomogeneous and, unexpectedly, the portion of the size distribution dominated by smaller grains has a more diverse mineralogy. The lower spatial resolution, high sensitivity Spitzer IRS data reveal resonances of refractory minerals (those seen by GEMINI+Michelle plus ortho-pyroxene)) as well resonances that can be attributed to phillosilicates (layer lattice silicates such as Montmorillonite) (Lisse et al. 2006). Pre- and post-impact, micron to submicron grains were deciphered to be present in the coma by the modeling the high spatial resolution images to account for nucleus plus inner coma fluxes (Wooden et al. 2005, 2006; Harker et al. 2005, 2006a). Note also that crystalline silicates were released from the interior of 73P-B/SW-3 as it disintegrated (Harker et al. 2006b). From the Deep Impact and the disintegration of 73P-B, we are led to ask the questians: Why is the mineralogy of the dust released from a volatile-rich pocket beneath the surface different from the dust that is released from the nominally active areas? Could the most volatile pockets be exhausted quickly? Why would crystalline silicates be associated with more volatile materials? Perhaps the structure of the comet is so inhomogeneous, e.g., the layered pile mode2 of the nucleus (Belton et al. 2006), that a reservoir of crystalline silicate and submicron grains just happens to not be released by the nominally active areas of comet 9P? Perhaps comets lose matter through their mantles from below their surfaces, thus preserving ancient topographic structures and radiation damaged silicates and carbon? We will discuss and ponder different scenarios. We will discuss future directions for coordinated observations of JF comets.

Wooden, Diane H.

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]

Entrainment, Detrainment, and Dilution of Dry and Moist Atmospheric Thermals

Here this study examines the entrainment, detrainment, and dilution of dry and moist (cloud) atmospheric thermals in large-eddy simulations. In a neutrally stable environment (with respect to dry dynamics), moist thermals have an increase in radius R with thermal height z t (α ≡ dR/dz t ) about 4 times smaller compared to dry thermals when density stratification is considered and ~2.4 times smaller without density stratification (i.e., applying the Boussinesq approximation). An analytic expression relating α to several dimensionless parameters is derived from the thermal impulse–circulation relation to clarify the factors impacting α. This expression shows that the difference in buoyancy structure between moist and dry thermals, with buoyancy concentrated in the central cores of moist thermals owing to latent heating, explains their smaller spreading rates. Individual contributions of entrainment and detrainment are analyzed using a direct parcel-based approach in the simulations. Moist thermals have similar fractional detrainment but much smaller fractional entrainment rates compared to dry thermals, consistent with the differences in α. Despite having smaller α, moist thermals are similarly dilute (quantified by a passive tracer) as dry thermals because of their greater mixing efficiency with the environment. Thus, moist thermals are substantially dilute but expand much less in size/volume as they rise compared to dry thermals. The α values for moist thermals in (dry) neutral and statically stable environments are similar, but fractional entrainment and especially detrainment rates are greater in the stable environment. Large detrainment rates are associated with a breakdown of the broader thermal vortex ring structure, especially with low environmental relative humidity, attributed in part to evaporation and buoyancy reversal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

A composition comparison between comets P/Halley and P/Brorsen-Metcalf

The appearance of comet Brorsen-Metcalf in 1989 following only a few years on the heels of comet Halley in 1986 gave an unusual opportunity to compare two comets of similar orbital elements but potentially different physical and chemical characteristics. Photometric spectral data were acquired for Brorsen-Metcalf on two dates: 13 July 1989 and 2 August 1989. The observations were performed with the 154 cm Catalina Telescope of the University of Arizona Observatories. The spectrum for 13 July 1989 is compared to a Halley spectrum. The general appearance of the spectra is very similar, both comets showing emission due to C2, NH2, OI(D-1), and CN. Neither displays any emission features that are exclusive to only one of the two. Since water is now reasonably well established as the major driving force in the activity of a comet, the H2O production rate for comet Brorsen-Metcalf was calculated. The relative ratios between the production rates of the various species obtained from the data are presented. Results are summarized in tabular form. All species are compared to the H2O production rate of the two comets. The results indicate that C2 originates from an extended source of dust particles or small polymers in addition to parent molecules. The lower production rates of C2 and CN in Brorsen-Metcalf correlate well with both the lower dust production and their smaller increase as the comet approaches the sun. Even without a mode, the spectroscopic observations of Brorsen-Metcalf allowed significant compositional conclusions to be drawn. The NH2 abundance is lower by about a factor of three which appears to be independent of heliocentric distance. Both C2 and CN are less abundant in Brorsen-Metcalf than in Halley and do not seem to participate as much in the strong increase as the comet approaches the sun. The lower H2O production rate implies that the active surface area of the comet Brorsen-Metcalf is much smaller, or equivalently the comet as a whole is much smaller. The substantially lower continuum level for Brorsen-Metcalf cannot readily be explained by smaller or larger active surface area, and must be intrinsic to the comet's embedded dust-to-ice ratio, or to an overall smaller-sized dust grain population.

Disanti, Michael A.

The three-dimensional structure of cumulus clouds over the ocean. 1: Structural analysis

Thermal channel (channel 6, 10.4-12.5 micrometers) images of five Landsat thematic mapper cumulus scenes over the ocean are examined. These images are thresholded using the standard International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) thermal threshold algorithm. The individual clouds in the cloud fields are segmented to obtain their structural statistics which include size distribution, orientation angle, horizontal aspect ratio, and perimeter-to-area (PtA) relationship. The cloud size distributions exhibit a double power law with the smaller clouds having a smaller absolute exponent. The cloud orientation angles, horizontal aspect ratios, and PtA exponents are found in good agreement with earlier studies. A technique also is developed to recognize individual cells within a cloud so that statistics of cloud cellular structure can be obtained. Cell structural statistics are computed for each cloud. Unicellular clouds are generally smaller (less than or equal to 1 km) and have smaller PtA exponents, while multicellular clouds are larger (greater than or equal to 1 km) and have larger PtA exponents. Cell structural statistics are similar to those of the smaller clouds. When each cell is approximated as a quadric surface using a linear least squares fit, most cells have the shape of a hyperboloid of one sheet, but about 15% of the cells are best modeled by a hyperboloid of two sheets. Less than 1% of the clouds are ellipsoidal. The number of cells in a cloud increases slightly faster than linearly with increasing cloud size. The mean nearest neighbor distance between cells in a cloud, however, appears to increase linearly with increasing cloud size and to reach a maximum when the cloud effective diameter is about 10 km; then it decreases with increasing cloud size. Sensitivity studies of threshold and lapse rate show that neither has a significant impact upon the results. A goodness-of-fit ratio is used to provide a quantitative measure of the individual cloud results. Significantly improved results are obtained after applying a smoothing operator, suggesting the eliminating subresolution scale variations with higher spatial resolution may yield even better shape analyses.

Kuo, Kwo-Sen

Launchable and Retrievable Tetherobot

A proposed robotic system for scientific exploration of rough terrain would include a stationary or infrequently moving larger base robot, to which would be tethered a smaller hopping robot of the type described in the immediately preceding article. The two-robot design would extend the reach of the base robot, making it possible to explore nearby locations that might otherwise be inaccessible or too hazardous for the base robot. The system would include a launching mechanism and a motor-driven reel on the larger robot. The outer end of the tether would be attached to the smaller robot; the inner end of the tether would be attached to the reel. The figure depicts the launching and retrieval process. The launching mechanism would aim and throw the smaller robot toward a target location, and the tether would be paid out from the reel as the hopping robot flew toward the target. Upon completion of exploratory activity at the target location, the smaller robot would be made to hop and, in a coordinated motion, the tether would be wound onto the reel to pull the smaller robot back to the larger one.

Younse, Paulo

Variability and Quasi-Decadal Changes in the Methane Budget over the Period 2000-2012

Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000- 2012, we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32] Tg CH4 yr(exp -1) higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Saunois, Marielle

Flight Deck Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO): A Four-Dimensional Trajectory (4DT) Simulation

In four-dimensional trajectory (4DT) Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO), aircraft are assigned a conflict-free 4DT which defines an expected location (x,y coordinates) at all times, t, along the taxi route (with altitude, being fixed). These 4DTs afford the highest temporal certainty at all points along the taxi route, and at the departure runway. In the present study, a 4DT flight deck display was presented on the Airport Moving Map (AMM) to support pilot conformance to a 4DT clearance while taxiing under manual control. This pilot-in-the-loop simulation compared the effect of 4DT flight deck display formats on distance from the expected 4DT location, conformance to the displayed tolerance band, eyes-out time, and pilot ratings of safety and workload. In the defined-tolerance display format, a graphical representation of the expected 4DT location, with a distance-based allowable-tolerance band, was depicted on the AMM. Two defined-tolerance band sizes were tested: plus or minus 164 feet and plus or minus 405 feet. In the undefined-tolerance display format, the expected 4DT location was displayed graphically on the AMM, with no indicated allowable-tolerance bounds. Each taxi trial included 4DT speed changes (two or five, per trial) and a range of 4DT taxi speeds. Results showed that the larger (plus or minus 405 feet) defined-tolerance band yielded higher conformance levels than the smaller (plus or minus 164 feet) band, with pilots staying within the specified and displayed conformance bounds more in the larger (99.71%) than the smaller defined-tolerance band (93.37 percent). However, in terms of being able to predict the location of the aircraft compared to the expected 4DT location, the smaller defined-tolerance band resulted in pilots keeping their aircraft closer to the 4DT location, for both average distance and for a given confidence interval (e.g., 95 percent), than either the larger defined-tolerance band or the undefined-tolerance display format. The larger tolerance band yielded more “eyes-out-the-window” time than the smaller tolerance band. Pilots also rated taxing with the larger tolerance band as safer than the smaller tolerance band.

STBO

Fiber orientation and porosity in large-format extrusion process: The role of processing parameters

Controlling fiber orientation and porosity in short-fiber thermoplastic composites is important for enhancing mechanical, electrical and thermal properties in large-format additive manufacturing. This study employs a factorial design of experiments (DoE) to assess the effects of nozzle diameter (5.08 mm–10.16 mm), temperature (230–250 °C), and extruder screw speed (150–280 rpm) on flow rate, shear rate, porosity, fiber orientation, fiber length and tensile strength in 20 % carbon fiber-filled acrylonitrile butadiene styrene. ANOVA results show that screw speed significantly impacts flow rate, while nozzle diameter and temperature have lesser effects. Shear rate increases with smaller nozzles and higher speeds. Porosity decreases from 5.58 % with a 10.16 mm nozzle to 3.11 % with a 5.08 mm nozzle at 150 rpm due to increased shear rates, which induce shear thinning, reducing viscosity and facilitating gas escape. Larger nozzles (10.16 mm) produce larger, more heterogeneous pores, while smaller nozzles (5.08 mm) yield smaller, uniform pores. Beads produced with the 5.08 mm nozzle exhibit longer fiber lengths due to reduced residence time, lower shear stress, and better alignment. Fiber orientation improves with smaller nozzles due to higher shear rates but decreases with higher screw speeds (280 rpm) due to shorter residence times. The highest fiber alignment (A xx ∼ 0.65) and low porosity (∼3%) were achieved with a 5.08 mm nozzle at 150 rpm, while equivalent additive manufacturing-compression molding samples exhibited better tensile strength (∼93 MPa) under these conditions. In conclusion, these findings emphasize the importance of optimizing processing parameters to enhance fiber alignment and reduce porosity for improved mechanical performance.

Design of experiments

Pentaerythritol structure-directing agents bias aluminum siting in MFI zeolites to increase para -xylene selectivity during toluene methylation

MFI zeolites contain ten-membered ring channels (∼0.55 nm diameter) that intersect to form larger voids (∼0.70 nm diameter). The distribution of framework Al sites dictates the void environments that confine active H + sites. MFI synthesized with pentaerythritol (PET) and Na + as structure-directing agents are interrogated using kinetically controlled toluene methylation rates and xylene isomer selectivities. High para-xylene selectivity and low toluene methylation rates indicate that MFI-PET samples contain H + sites predominantly in smaller channels. As-synthesized samples contain more framework Al than Na + , indicating that some charge compensation is provided by protonated PET-solvent complexes that bias Al siting towards these smaller channels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Subarcsecond resolution observations of the central parsec of the Galaxy at 2.2 microns

Four separate lunar occultations of the Galactic center in the infrared K-band have been observed, and the results are used to estimate the size of the sources and to derive photometry. It is found that IRS 16NE, 16NW, and IRS 29 are smaller than about 510 AU and IRS 16SW-W and C are smaller than 85 AU. All sources brighter than K = 10 mag in the central pc are smaller than 510 AU and therefore seem to be stars. IRS 7 is smaller than about 100 AU. IRS 1W and 13, resolved into pairs of stars, are probably the exciting stars for these H II regions. The shape of the differential luminosity function of the stars in the central sq pc is similar to that of stars in the central 150 sq pc. There is a steady increase in star density toward the central few arcsec of the Galaxy.

Simon, M.

Reducing neural network training time with parallel processing

Obtaining optimal solutions for engineering design problems is often expensive because the process typically requires numerous iterations involving analysis and optimization programs. Previous research has shown that a near optimum solution can be obtained in less time by simulating a slow, expensive analysis with a fast, inexpensive neural network. A new approach has been developed to further reduce this time. This approach decomposes a large neural network into many smaller neural networks that can be trained in parallel. Guidelines are developed to avoid some of the pitfalls when training smaller neural networks in parallel. These guidelines allow the engineer: to determine the number of nodes on the hidden layer of the smaller neural networks; to choose the initial training weights; and to select a network configuration that will capture the interactions among the smaller neural networks. This paper presents results describing how these guidelines are developed.

Rogers, James L., Jr.

Effect of meteoroid rotation on atmospheric entry heating and meteor beginning height

The beginning height of a meteor varies by approximately 10 km depending on the rotation state of a spherical meteoroid as long as the body sustains a temperature gradient. Such gradients build up in friable stony meteoroids larger than approximately 0.1 cm and in iron meteoroids that are approximately 1 cm or larger. The height where 100 microns or smaller zodiacal dust particles ablate is nearly independent of rotation. Stony particles in the 100 microns size range ablate near 120 km while both larger and smaller meteoroids penetrate deeper. All calculations were made with a nominal speed of 30 km/s and a zenithal distance equal to z(sub r) = 0 deg. Larger meteoroids cool their surface by conduction to the interior while smaller meteoroids decelerate significantly due to their large surface area to mass ratio so that the surface receives a lower energy flux. Some micro-meteoroids smaller than approximately 10 microns may escape abalation altogether at the nominal velocity. The effect of rotation on particle temperature during atmospheric flight is significant on meteoroids larger than 0.1 cm but may be negligible on micro-meteorites that are typically 10-50 microns in diameter.

Adolfsson, L. G.