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At least 91 records · Page 5

18-months of UV irradiance observations from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer

An instrument on the Solar Mesosphere Explorer has been making daily solar irradiance measurements in the 120-305 nm (UV) spectral interval since October 6, 1981. Calculations of the highest to lowest value of the irradiance within each solar rotation yield percent range values indicative of variations that are useful as input data for model calculations of stratosphere/mesosphere responses to short period solar variability, since solar radiation in the UV is largely responsible for the photochemical interactions and radiative heating of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere.

London, J.↗

Implications of solar irradiance variability upon long-term changes in the Earth's atmospheric temperatures

From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.

Lee, Robert B., III↗

The Sun/Earth System and Space Weather

Solar variability and solar activity are now seen as significant drivers with respect to the Earth and human technology systems. Observations over the last 10 years have significantly advanced our understanding of causes and effects in the Sun/Earth system. On a practical level the interactions between the Sun and Earth dictate how we build our systems in space (communications satellites, GPS, etc), and some of our ground systems (power grids). This talk will be about the Sun/Earth system: how it changes with time, its magnetic interactions, flares, the solar wind, and how the Sun effects human systems. Data will be presented from some current spacecraft which show, for example, how we are able to currently give warnings to the scientific community, the Government and industry about space storms and how this data has improved our physical understanding of processes on the Sun and in the magnetosphere. The scientific advances provided by our current spacecraft has led to a new program in NASA to develop a 'Space Weather' system called 'Living With a Star'. The current plan for the 'Living With a Star' program will also be presented.

Poland, Arthur I.↗

Observations of solar irradiance variability

High-precision measurements of total solar irradiance, made by the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor on the Solar Maximum Mission satellite, show the irradiance to have been variable throughout the first 153 days of observations. The corrected data resolve orbit-to-orbit variations with uncertainties as small as 0.01%. Irradiance fluctuations are typical of a band-limited noise spectrum with high-frequency cutoff near 0.15/day; their amplitudes about the mean value of 1368.31 watts per square meter approach plus or minus 0.05%. Two large decreases in irradiance of up to 0.2% lasting about one week are highly correlated with the development of sunspot groups. The magnitude and time scale of the irradiance variability suggest that considerable energy storage occurs within the convection zone in solar active regions.

Willson, R. C.↗

The influence of solar ultraviolet variability on climate

Changes in the solar u.v. flux and its wavelength distribution could affect the climate both directly and through the greenhouse effect of the ozone shield. Indeed, the ozone content of the stratosphere is highly sensitive to the relative intensity of two broad spectral regions in the solar u.v. The observed amplitude for global-ozone variation of a few percent at most over the solar cycle is compatible with a variation of solar u.v. flux of no more than about 20%.

Chamberlain, J. W.↗

SBUV/2 Long-Term Measurements of Solar Spectral Variability

The NOAA-11 SBUV/2 spectral solar data have been corrected for long-term instrument changes to produce a 5.5 year data record during solar cycle 22 (December 1988 - October 1994). Residual drifts in the data at long wavelengths are +/- 1% or less. At 200-205 nm, where solar variations drive stratospheric photochemistry, these data indicate long-term solar changes of 5-7% from the maximum of Cycle 22 in April 1991 through the end of the NOAA-11 data record. Comparisons of NOAA-11 data with UARS SUSIM and SOLSTICE for the period October 1991 - October 1994, when all 3 instruments were operating simultaneously, show that the observed long-term variations in 200-205 nm irradiance agree to within 2%. This result is consistent with predictions from the Mg-2 proxy index. The SBUV/2 instruments represent a valuable resource for long-term solar UV activity studies because of their overlapping data records. In addition to the NOAA-11 data presented here, the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 instrument began taking data in March 1985 and is still operating, providing a complete record of Cycle 22 behavior from a single instrument. Three additional SBUV/2 instruments are scheduled to be launched between 1997 and 2003, which should permit full coverage of solar cycle 23.

DeLand, Matthew T.↗

Total Solar Irradiance Variability: A Review

Observations of total solar irradiance from space within the last two decaades convinced the skeptics that total irradiance varies over a wide range of periodicities: from minutes to the 11-year solar activity cycle. Analyses based on these space-borne observations have demonstrated that the irradiance variations are directly related to changes at the photosphere and the solar interior.

solar irradiance solar luminosity irradiance model↗

Solar UV variability and its effect on stratospheric thermal structure and trace constituents

Observational evidence suggests the presence of solar UV variability in the spectral range 0.175-0.310 micron during the 11-year solar cycle. The present paper reports the results of a study using a steady-state 1-D radiative-convective-photochemical model conducted to determine the response of stratospheric temperatures and O3, O(1D), O(3P), and N2O constituent distributions to UV variability. Results show that concentrations of constituents and the thermal structure may be altered significantly for the altitude interval between 20 and 55 km.

Callis, L. B.↗

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Prediction↗

Changes in photochemically significant solar UV spectral irradiance as estimated by the composite Mg II index and scale factors

Quantitative assessment of the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations on stratospheric ozone abundances currently requires the use of proxy indicators. The Mg II core-to-wing index has been developed as an indicator of solar UV activity between 175-400 nm that is independent of most instrument artifacts, and measures solar variability on both rotational and solar cycle time scales. Linear regression fits have been used to merge the individual Mg II index data sets from the Nimbus-7, NOAA-9, and NOAA-11 instruments onto a single reference scale. The change in 27-dayrunning average of the composite Mg II index from solar maximum to solar minimum is approximately 8 percent for solar cycle 21, and approximately 9 percent for solar cycle 22 through January 1992. Scaling factors based on the short-term variations in the Mg II index and solar irradiance data sets have been developed to estimate solar variability at mid-UV and near-UV wavelengths. Near 205 nm, where solar irradiance variations are important for stratospheric photo-chemistry and dynamics, the estimated change in irradiance during solar cycle 22 is approximately 10 percent using the composite Mg II index and scale factors.

Deland, Matthew T.↗

The corona and heliosphere

The eleven-year solar cycle is an especially appropriate period over which to study the solar output and its variation, because during this cycle most of the important types of solar variability (many characterized by periods shorter than eleven years) are manifested. Studies of solar variability over a solar cycle will improve understanding of solar structure and of the generation of the solar wind, and this improved understanding can be useful in the related studies of stellar structure and stellar winds, since stellar observations are necessarily less detailed and sophisticated than are solar observations. A particularly significant benefit that will accrue from a thorough study of the solar atmosphere and its variability over the next solar cycle is a great enhancement in the usefulness of so-called 'proxy' data in studying longer term solar variations and their terrestrial implication.

Holzer, T.↗

The temporal behavior of upper stratospheric ozone at low latitudes - Evidence from Nimbus 4 BUV data for short-term responses to solar ultraviolet variability

Ozone mixing ratios at pressure levels near 2 mbar are analyzed for the purpose of estimating the average response of the upper stratospheric ozone to solar UV variability on the time scale of the solar rotation period. The data were obtained from observations made with the Nimbus 4 backscattering UV radiometer in 13 latitude zones between 65 degrees N and 65 degrees S. The anaysis showed that temporal variations are negatively correlated with changes in zonally averaged equivalent temperature measured simultaneously by Nimbus 4 radiometer. A linear regression analysis is performed in order to obtain estimates of the average percent change of ozone at low latitudes, on the considered time scale for given changes in 10.7-cm flux, and in the UV flux model developed by Lean et al. (1982). Reproductions of the ozone profiles are provided.

Hood, L. L.↗

Models of Solar Irradiance Variability and the Instrumental Temperature Record

The effects of decade-to-century (Dec-Cen) variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) on global mean surface temperature Ts during the pre-Pinatubo instrumental era (1854-1991) are studied by using two different proxies for TSI and a simplified version of the IPCC climate model.

solar variability climate change global warming↗

Time variability of solar active regions at centimeter wavelengths

An analysis is presented of the variability of centimeter wavelength emission originating from the solar transition region and lower corona, and the variability is compared with the sun's quiescent emission. Sequential dual wavelength observations are presented and used to put constraints on a possible model of the variability of active region emissions and to better understand the dynamics of active regions. It is shown that gyroresonance emission contributes significantly to the active region emission at 6 cm, whereas all the quiet-sun emission can be attributed to free-free emission. From comparison of the quiet-sun and active region models, it is shown that the density at the base of the transition region is higher in active regions.

Shevgaonkar, R. K.↗

Solar Effects on Global Climate Due to Cosmic Rays and Solar Energetic Particles

Although the work reported here does not directly connect solar variability with global climate change, this research establishes a plausible quantitative causative link between observed solar activity and apparently correlated variations in terrestrial climate parameters. Specifically, we have demonstrated that ion-mediated nucleation of atmospheric particles is a likely, and likely widespread, phenomenon that relates solar variability to changes in the microphysical properties of clouds. To investigate this relationship, we have constructed and applied a new model describing the formation and evolution of ionic clusters under a range of atmospheric conditions throughout the lower atmosphere. The activation of large ionic clusters into cloud nuclei is predicted to be favorable in the upper troposphere and mesosphere, and possibly in the lower stratosphere. The model developed under this grant needs to be extended to include additional cluster families, and should be incorporated into microphysical models to further test the cause-and-effect linkages that may ultimately explain key aspects of the connections between solar variability and climate.

Turco, R. P.↗

Influence of solar wind variability on geomagnetic activity

A statistical study of solar wind data from the Explorer 33 satellite shows that interplanetary magnetic field irregularities are enhanced in the interaction region where a fast solar wind stream overtakes a slower solar wind stream. Comparison with geomagnetic AE and ap indexes further shows that these interplanetary irregularities enhance the level of geomagnetic disturbances. Thus while substorm occurrence is highly correlated with the dawn-dusk component of the solar wind electric field, the amplitude of the substorms is an increasing function of the variance in the interplanetary field. This result can be interpreted as a capacitative effect of the magnetopause that allows a time-varying solar wind electric field to penetrate the magnetosphere more effectively than a static solar wind electric field.

Garrett, H. B.↗

Validation of 1985-1997 Active Cavity Radiometer Spacecraft Measurements of Total Solar Irradiance Variability

Since 1978, long-term variations in the total solar irradiance (solar constant) have been monitored using spacecraft radiometers, at the 0.01% precision level. The irradiance measurements were performed from the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite [ERBS], Nimbus-7, Solar Maximum Mission [SMM], Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite [UARS], European Retrievable Carrier (EURECA), Solar and Heliospheric Observatory [SOHO], and the Space Shuttle Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science [ATLAS] spacecraft platforms. Radiometer responses can drift or shift at precision levels of a few hundreds of a percent. In-flight calibration sources are not available to detect radiometer response changes at radiometric accuracy or precision levels near the 0.01% (0.1 W/sq m) level. Inconsistent trends among the sets were used to identify possible instrumental drifts or shifts which may be incorrectly interpreted as solar irradiance changes while consistent trends among the different measurement sets were used to detect long-term irradiance variability components. In this paper, 1991-1998 corresponding ERBS, UARS, SOHO, and ATLAS irradiance measurements are inter-compared with each other as well as with the ERBS empirical irradiance fit. The empirical irradiance fit is based upon 10.7-cm solar radio flux (F10) and photometric sunspot index (PSI), indices of solar magnetic activity. Analyses of recent data sets identified no long-term shifts and drifts in the ERBS, SOHO, or UARS data sets. The typical value of the total solar irradiance is approximately 1365 Watts per meter squared (W/sq m).

Lee, Robert B., III↗