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At least 91 records · Page 5

Shallow- and deep-convection characteristics in the greater Houston, Texas, area using cell tracking methodology

The convective lifecycle, from initiation to maturity and dissipation, is driven by a combination of kinematic, thermodynamic, microphysical, and radiative processes that are strongly coupled and variable in time and space. Weather radars have been traditionally used to provide various convective-cloud characteristics. Here, we analyzed climatological convective-cell radar characteristics to obtain and assess the diurnal cycles of three convective-cell types – shallow, modest deep, and vigorous deep convective cells – that formed in the greater Houston area, using the National Weather Service radar from Houston, Texas, and a multi-cell identification and tracking algorithm. The examined dataset spans 4 years (2018–2021) and covers the warm-season months (June to September) in those years. The analysis showed clear diurnal cycles in cell initiation (CI) consistent with the sea breeze circulation and showed diurnal and normalized lifetime relationships in cell evolution parameters (e.g., maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) channel 13 brightness temperature, and the height of maximum reflectivity). The cell evolution is well represented by relationships between (1) the height and value of the maximum radar reflectivity, (2) the minimum GOES-16 channel 13 brightness temperature and the maximum vertically integrated liquid, (3) the maximum reflectivity and columnar-average reflectivity, and (4) the echo-top ascent rate and cell lifetime. The relationships presented herein help to identify the cell lifecycle stages such as early shallow convection, vigorous vertical development, anvil development, and convective core dissipation. GOES-16 Aerosol Optical Depth values are also used as a proxy for cell initiation aerosol concentrations to investigate any potential relationships between initiation location and aerosol concentration. Overall, no significant relationships between initiation location and aerosol concentration were found for the three cell types investigated, but there are some minor differences in the pre-CI aerosol optical depth for vigorous deep convective cells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Giant Undulations Driven by Pitch‐Angle Scattering of Time Domain Structures Modulated by Plasmapause Surface Wave

Abstract Plasmapause surface waves (PSWs) near the plasmapause boundary are regarded to be the magnetospheric source of ionospheric auroral giant undulations (GUs) located at the equatorward boundary of diffuse aurora. However, the observational evidence of wave‐particle interaction connecting PSWs and GUs is absent. In this letter, we demonstrate GUs are driven by pitch‐angle scattering of time domain structures modulated by the PSWs, based on the conjugated ionospheric and magnetospheric observations. Specifically, ionospheric GUs are lighted by the pitch‐angle scattering of <1 keV thermal electron and ions and energetic ions with energy up to dozens of keV near the plasmapause. Further, the total fluxes during one PSW period and energy of scattered electron and ions determine the size and luminosity of GUs. Our research provides observational evidence that PSWs cause periodic electron precipitation via modulating the time domain structures rather than the previously predicted chorus or electron cyclotron harmonic waves.

Zhou, Yi‐Jia [Weihai Institute for Interdisciplina↗

Low-energy radiative backgrounds in CCD-based dark-matter detectors

The reach of sub-GeV dark-matter detectors is at present severely affected by low-energy events from various origins. We present the theoretical methods to compute the single- and few-electron events that arise from secondary radiation emitted by high-energy particles as they pass through detector materials and perform a detailed simulation to quantify them at (Skipper) CCD-based experiments, focusing on the SENSEI data collected at Fermilab near the MINOS cavern. The simulations account for the generation of secondaries from Cherenkov and luminescent recombination radiation; photo-absorption in the bulk, backside layer, pitch adapter, and epoxy; the photon reflection and refraction at interfaces; thin-film interference; the roughness of the interfaces; the dynamics of charges produced in the highly doped CCD-backside-layers; and the partial charge collection on the CCD backside. We consider several systematic uncertainties, notably those stemming from the backside modeling, which we estimate with a “fiducial” and an “extreme” charge-diffusion model, with the former model being preferred due to better agreement with partial-charge collection data. We find that Cherenkov photons constitute about 30% of the observed single-electron events for both diffusion models; radiative recombination contributes negligibly to the event rate for the fiducial model, although it can dominate over Cherenkov for the extreme model. We also estimate the fraction of 2-electron events that arise from 1-electron event coincidences in the same pixel, finding that the entire 2-electron rate can be explained by coincidences of radiative events and spurious charge. Accounting for both radiative and non-radiative backgrounds, we project the sensitivity of future Skipper-CCD-based experiments to different dark-matter models. For light-mediator models with dark-matter masses of 1, 5, and 10 MeV, we find that future experiments with 10-kg-year exposures and successful background mitigation could have a sensitivity that is larger by 9, 3, and 2 orders of magnitude, respectively, when compared to an experiment without background improvements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark kinetic heating of exoplanets and brown dwarfs

Dark kinetic heating of neutron stars has been previously studied as a promising dark matter detection avenue. Kinetic heating occurs when dark matter is sped up to relativistic speeds in the gravitational well of high-escape velocity objects, and deposits kinetic energy after becoming captured by the object, thereby increasing its temperature. We show that dark kinetic heating can be significant even in objects with low-escape velocities, such as exoplanets and brown dwarfs, increasing the discovery potential of such searches. This can occur if there is a long-range dark force, creating a “dark escape velocity”, leading to heating rates substantially larger than those expected from neutron stars. We consequently set constraints on dark sector parameters using Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer and JWST data on Super-Jupiter WISE 0855-0714, and map out future sensitivity to the dark matter scattering cross section below 10 −40 cm 2 . We compare dark kinetic heating rates of other lower escape velocity objects such as the Earth, Sun, and white dwarfs, finding complementary kinetic heating signals are possible depending on particle physics parameters.

Astrophysics↗

The Interstellar Mapping And Acceleration Probe High Energy (IMAP-Hi) Neutral Atom Imager

The IMAP-Hi Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) Imager on NASA’s Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission (McComas et al. 2018a, 2025) is designed to measure ENAs from the global interaction between the heliosphere and the local interstellar medium (LISM). These ENAs are initially plasma ions of solar wind origin that are neutralized by charge exchange with the cold neutral atoms of LISM that freely flow through the heliosphere-LISM interaction region. IMAP-Hi consists of two identical single-pixel sensors, each covering the ENA spectral range from 0.44 keV to 15.6 keV over nine contiguous energy passbands and having an approximately conical field-of-view (FOV) of 4.1o full width at half maximum (FWHM). The Hi-45 sensor points 45o relative to the spacecraft spin axis from the antisunward direction; each spacecraft spin, it measures ENA intensity over a circular swath with half-cone angle 45o centered on the ecliptic plane. The Hi-90 sensor points 90o relative to the spin axis; each spacecraft spin, it measures ENA intensity over a great circle in the sky, sampling both the north and south ecliptic poles. As the IMAP spin vector is re-pointed daily toward the Sun, the ecliptic longitude of the swaths moves daily by ∼1o such that a full sky map is acquired by Hi-90 every six months and a complete low latitude (−45o to +45o) map is acquired by Hi-45 annually. The IMAP-Hi sensor design has direct heritage from the IBEX-Hi imager on the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission, with substantial improvements in energy range, energy resolution, angular resolution, signal-to-noise ratio, and, for ecliptic latitudes within ±45o, temporal resolution and exposure time. The global ENA maps acquired by IMAP-Hi partially overlap in energy and viewing with the ENA maps acquired by the IMAP-Lo and IMAP-Ultra ENA imagers, which we combine to answer fundamental questions about the structure and dynamics of the interaction of the heliosphere and the LISM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Data Assimilative Optimization of WSA Source Surface and Interface Radii using Particle Filtering

TheWang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model estimates solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field polarity in the inner heliosphere using global photospheric magnetic field maps. WSA employs the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models to determine the Sun's global coronal magnetic field. The PFSS and SCS models are connected through two radial parameters, the source surface and interface radii, which specify the overlap region between the inner SCS and outer PFSS models. Though both radii values are adjustable, they have typically been fixed to 2.5 solar radii. Our work highlights how solar wind predictions improve when the radii are allowed to vary over time. Data assimilation using particle filtering (sequential Monte Carlo) is used to infer optimal values over a fixed time window. Solar wind model predictions and satellite observations are compared with a newly developed quality-of-agreement prediction metric. The agreement metric between the model and observations is assumed to correspond to the probability of the two key WSA model parameters, the source surface and interface radii, where the highest metric value implies the optimal radii.We find that the optimal particle filter values of solar radii can perform twice as well as standard values for an exploratory period during Carrington Rotation 1901, with these values also reducing nonphysical kinking effects seen in solar magnetic field lines. Data assimilation choices of input realization and time frame have implications for variation in the solar wind over time. We present this work's theoretical context and practical applications for prediction accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electronic structure of NdO via slow photoelectron velocity-map imaging spectroscopy of NdO –

Electronically excited NdO is a possible product of the chemistry associated with the release of Nd into the ionosphere, and emission from these states may contribute to the observations following such experiments. To better characterize the energetics and spectroscopy of NdO, we report a combined experimental and theoretical study using slow photoelectron velocity-map imaging spectroscopy of cryogenically cooled NdO – anions (cryo-SEVI) supplemented by wave function-based quantum-chemical calculations. Using cryo-SEVI, we measure the electron affinity of NdO to be 1.0091(7) eV and resolve numerous transitions to low-lying electronic and vibrational states of NdO that are assigned with the aid of the electronic structure calculations. Additionally, temperature-dependent data suggest contributions from the (2)4.5 state of NdO – residing 2350 cm –1 above the ground anion state. Finally, photodetachment to higher-lying excited states of NdO is also reported, which may help to clarify observations from prior release experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nonlinear spectral analysis of ion acoustic solitons arising from a streaming charged object using the numerical inverse scattering transform

Observations of nonlinear coherent plasma phenomena in spacecraft and terrestrial experiments often rely on visual identification of solitary modes because nonlinear coherent modes are broadband in a Fourier transform based analysis. We implement an alternative spectral decomposition known as the inverse scattering transform and demonstrate its ability to successfully isolate nonlinear modes on the homogeneous and forced Korteweg–De Vries equation which models these nonlinear modes. We also demonstrate for the first time that this decomposition is useful when forcing is applied. This is because the stable modes generated by localized forcing are similar to the homogeneous solutions where the inverse scattering transform is a rigorous decomposition. This spectral technique is then applied to simulations of ion acoustic waves generated by a 10 mm spherical debris object interacting with the ionospheric plasma orbiting at 2000 km altitude. The algorithm is found to successfully detect the resultant solitons. This demonstrates the feasibility of using this spectral technique as a real time analysis tool for screening spacecraft data for nonlinear solitary modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Electron-field instability: Excitation of electron plasma waves by an electric field

Electric fields are commonplace in plasmas and affect transport by driving currents and, in some cases, instabilities. The necessary condition for instability in collisionless plasmas is commonly understood to be described by the Penrose criterion, which quantifies a sufficient relative drift between different populations of particles that must be present for wave amplification via inverse Landau damping. For example, electric fields generate drifts between electrons and ions that can excite the ion-acoustic instability. Here, we use particle-in-cell simulations and linear stability analysis to show that the electric field can drive a fundamentally different type of kinetic instability, named the electron-field instability. This instability excites electron plasma waves with wavelengths ≳30λ De , has a growth rate that is proportional to the electric field strength, and does not require a relative drift between electrons and ions. The Penrose criterion does not apply when accounting for the electric field. Furthermore, the large value of the observed frequency, near the electron plasma frequency, further distinguishes it from the standard ion-acoustic instability, which oscillates near the ion plasma frequency. The ubiquity of macroscopic electric fields in quasineutral plasmas suggests that this instability is possible in a host of systems, including low-temperature and space plasmas. In fact, damping from neutral collisions in such systems is often not enough to completely damp the instability, adding to the robustness of the instability across plasma conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Do Impulsive Solar-Energetic-Electron (SEE) Events Drive High-Voltage Charging Events on the Nightside of the Moon?

When the Earth’s moon is in the supersonic solar wind, the darkside of the Moon and the lunar plasma wake can be very dangerous charging environments. In the absence of photoelectron emission (dark) and in the absence of cool plasma (wake), the emission or collection of charge to reduce electrical potentials is difficult. Unique extreme charging events may occur during impulsive solar-energetic-electron (SEE) events when the lunar wake is dominated by relativistic electrons, with the potential to charge and differentially charge objects on and above the lunar surface to very-high negative electrical potentials. In this report the geometry of the magnetic connections from the Sun to the lunar nightside are explored; these magnetic connections are the pathways for SEEs from the Sun. Rudimentary charging calculations for objects in the relativistic-electron environment of the lunar wake are performed. To enable these charging calculations, secondary-electron yields for impacts by relativistic electrons are derived. Needed lunar electrical-grounding precautions for SEE events are discussed. Calls are made 1) for future dynamic simulations of the plasma wake in the presence of time-varying SEE-event relativistic electrons and time-varying solar-wind magnetic-field orientations and 2) for future charging calculations in the relativistic-electron wake environment and on the darkside lunar surface.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Agile collaboration: Citizen science as a transdisciplinary approach to heliophysics

Citizen science connects scientists with the public to enable discovery, engaging broad audiences across the world. There are many attributes that make citizen science an asset to the field of heliophysics, including agile collaboration. Agility is the extent to which a person, group of people, technology, or project can work efficiently, pivot, and adapt to adversity. Citizen scientists are agile; they are adaptable and responsive. Citizen science projects and their underlying technology platforms are also agile in the software development sense, by utilizing beta testing and short timeframes to pivot in response to community needs. As they capture scientifically valuable data, citizen scientists can bring expertise from other fields to scientific teams. The impact of citizen science projects and communities means citizen scientists are a bridge between scientists and the public, facilitating the exchange of information. These attributes of citizen scientists form the framework of agile collaboration. In this paper, we contextualize agile collaboration primarily for aurora chasers, a group of citizen scientists actively engaged in projects and independent data gathering. Nevertheless, these insights scale across other domains and projects. Citizen science is an emerging yet proven way of enhancing the current research landscape. To tackle the next-generation’s biggest research problems, agile collaboration with citizen scientists will become necessary.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impacts of year-to-year weather variability and inter-panel spacing on agrivoltaic crop yields in Massachusetts

Deployment of utility-scale solar power plants could lead to agricultural land-use changes. Agrivoltaics, a dual land use combining solar and agriculture on the same land, can provide multiple environmental benefits, including improving soil quality and water use efficiency. The body of agrivoltaic field data is still growing, and crop responses to different solar configurations under different local climates are highly varied. We investigate the impact of adding spacing between adjacent solar panels in a fixed-tilt system to improve light diffusion to crops. For four crops (broccoli, peppers, kale, Swiss chard) grown across 3 years in an agrivoltaic system in Massachusetts, we found that only kale had a linearly increasing trend as the inter-panel spacing increased from 0.6 m to 1.5 m (2 ft to 5 ft). However, there were significant year-to-year differences in the yield of agrivoltaic versus control fields. Agrivoltaic and full sun fields produced equivalent yields in a hot, dry year, whereas the full-sun control beds produced more salable yield for all four crops in a warm, wet year. This demonstrates variability of agricultural outcomes and the need for more multi-year studies to ensure agrivoltaic impacts are not under- or overestimated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The June 2012 North American Derecho: A Testbed for Evaluating Regional and Global Climate Modeling Systems at Cloud‐Resolving Scales

Abstract In this paper, we introduce a testbed for evaluating and comparing climate modeling systems at cloud resolving scales using hindcasts of the June 2012 North American derecho. To demonstrate its utility for model intercomparison, the testbed is applied to two models: the regionally‐refined Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) at 6.5, 3.25 and 1.625 km grid spacing and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 3.2 and 1.6 km grid spacing. We find the simulation results to be highly sensitive to the initial conditions (ICs), initialization time, and model configurations, with ICs from the Rapid Refresh producing the best simulation. Significant improvement is identified in both models as horizontal grid spacing is refined. While a propagation delay of approximately 2 hr is found in both models, SCREAM at 1.625 km simulates the observed bow echo structure of the derecho well and predicts strong surface gusts that exceed 30 m/s. In comparison, WRF has difficulty producing surface wind over 25 m/s, with wind gusts in WRF 42%–46% lower than in SCREAM. However, WRF has a lower bias in simulating cloud top temperature and extent, but overestimates precipitation intensity. Both models reproduce the observed outgoing longwave radiation spatial patterns well (Pearson correlation >0.88), but, compared with NEXRAD observations, simulate generally larger areas of composite radar reflectivity >40 dBZ and underestimate the precipitating area by ∼47%.

2012 North American derecho↗

Impacts of Year-to-Year Weather Variability and Inter-Panel Spacing on Crop Yields in a Massachusetts Agrivoltaics System

This presentation summarizes recently published work on agrivoltaic field data and irradiance modeling. The body of agrivoltaic field data is still growing, and crop responses to different solar configurations under different local climates are highly varied. We investigate the impact of adding spacing between adjacent solar panels in a fixed-tilt system to improve light diffusion to crops. For four crops (broccoli, peppers, kale, Swiss chard) grown across 3 years in an agrivoltaic system in Massachusetts, we found that only kale had a linearly increasing trend as the inter-panel spacing increased from 0.6 m to 1.5 m (2 ft to 5 ft). However, there were significant year-to-year differences in the yield of agrivoltaic versus control fields. Agrivoltaic and full sun fields produced equivalent yields in a hot, dry year, whereas the full-sun control beds produced more salable yield for all four crops in a warm, wet year. This demonstrates variability of agricultural outcomes and the need for more multi-year studies to ensure agrivoltaic impacts are not under- or overestimated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Predicting industrial building energy consumption with statistical and machine-learning models informed by physical system parameters

The industrial sector consumes about one-third of global energy, making them a frequent target for energy use reduction. Variation in energy usage is observed with weather conditions, as space conditioning needs to change seasonally, and with production, energy-using equipment is directly tied to production rate. Previous models were based on engineering analyses of equipment and relied on site-specific details. Others consisted of single-variable regressors that did not capture all contributions to energy consumption. Further, new modeling techniques could be applied to rectify these weaknesses. Applying data from 45 different manufacturing plants obtained from industrial energy audits, a supervised machine-learning model is developed to create a general predictor for industrial building energy consumption. The model uses features of air enthalpy, solar radiation, and wind speed to predict weather-dependency; motor, steam, and compressed air system parameters to capture support equipment contributions; and operating schedule, production rate, number of employees, and floor area to determine production-dependency. Results showed that a model that used a linear regressor over a transformed feature space could outperform a support vector machine and utilize features more representative of physical systems. Using informed parameters to build a reliable predictor will more accurately characterize a manufacturing facility's energy savings opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Analysis and prediction of intersection traffic violations using automated enforcement system data

We report that the automated enforcement system (AES) is an effective way of supplementing traditional traffic enforcement, and the traffic violation data from AES can also be effectively used for safety research. In this study, traffic violation data were used to analyze the influencing factors associated with traffic violations and to predict the probability of violations at intersections. The potential factors influencing violations include 24 independent factors related to time, space, traffic and weather. Results from a logistic model showed that the midday period, weekends, residential districts, collector roads, congested traffic conditions, high traffic flow, lower wind speed and low temperature would increase the probability of traffic violations. The probability of violations was predicted by the random forest algorithm, which was proven to be the best traffic violation prediction model among logistic regression, Gaussian naive Bayes, and support vector machine. Moreover, the proximity weighted synthetic oversampling technique (ProWSyn) method was applied to reduce the impact of the imbalance ratio (IR) and improve the model’s prediction performance. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and Precision-Recall (PR) curves illustrated that the random forest algorithm using oversampling data had the best classifier prediction performance than undersampling data. The area under curve (AUC) and out-of-bag (OOB) error with IR = 1 reached 0.914 and 0.0787, which showed the better performance of the random forest algorithm using ProWSyn in dealing with imbalanced traffic violation data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗