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At least 91 records · Page 5

Head-mounted spatial instruments II: Synthetic reality or impossible dream

A spatial instrument is defined as a spatial display which has been either geometrically or symbolically enhanced to enable a user to accomplish a particular task. Research conducted over the past several years on 3-D spatial instruments has shown that perspective displays, even when viewed from the correct viewpoint, are subject to systematic viewer biases. These biases interfere with correct spatial judgements of the presented pictorial information. The design of spatial instruments may not only require the introduction of compensatory distortions to remove the naturally occurring biases but also may significantly benefit from the introduction of artificial distortions which enhance performance. However, these image manipulations can cause a loss of visual-vestibular coordination and induce motion sickness. Consequently, the design of head-mounted spatial instruments will require an understanding of the tolerable limits of visual-vestibular discord.

Ellis, Stephen R.↗

Sensitivity of meteorological-forcing resolution on hydrologic variables

Projecting the spatiotemporal changes in water resources under a no-analog future climate requires physically based integrated hydrologic models which simulate the transfer of water and energy across the earth's surface. These models show promise in the context of unprecedented climate extremes given their reliance on the underlying physics of the system as opposed to empirical relationships. However, these techniques are plagued by several sources of uncertainty, including the inaccuracy of input datasets such as meteorological forcing. These datasets, usually derived from climate models or satellite-based products, are typically only resolved on the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers, while hydrologic variables of interest (e.g., discharge and groundwater levels) require a resolution at much smaller scales. In this work, a high-resolution hydrologic model is forced with various resolutions of meteorological forcing (0.5 to 40.5 km) generated by a dynamical downscaling analysis from the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The Cosumnes watershed, which spans the Sierra Nevada and Central Valley interface of California (USA), exhibits semi-natural flow conditions due to its rare undammed river basin and is used here as a test bed to illustrate potential impacts of various resolutions of meteorological forcing on snow accumulation and snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and groundwater levels. Results show that the errors in spatial distribution patterns impact land surface processes and can be delayed in time. Localized biases in groundwater levels can be as large as 5–10 m and 3 m in surface water. Most hydrologic variables reveal that biases are seasonally and spatially dependent, which can have serious implications for model calibration and ultimately water management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Head-mounted spatial instruments: Synthetic reality or impossible dream

A spatial instrument is defined as a display device which has been either geometrically or symbolically enhanced to better enable a user to accomplish a particular task. Research conducted over the past several years on 3-D spatial instruments has shown that perspective displays, even when viewed from the correct viewpoint, are subject to systematic viewer biases. These biases interfere with correct spatial judgements of the presented pictorial information. It is also found that deliberate, appropriate geometric distortion of the perspective projection of an image can improve user performance. These two findings raise intriguing questions concerning the design of head-mounted spatial instruments. The design of such instruments may not only require the introduction of compensatory distortions to remove the neutrally occurring biases but also may significantly benefit from the introduction of artificial distortions which enhance performance. These image manipulations, however, can cause a loss of visual-vestibular coordination and induce motion sickness. Additionally, adaptation to these manipulations is apt to be impaired by computational delays in the image display. Consequently, the design of head-mounted spatial instruments will require an understanding of the tolerable limits of visual-vestibular discord.

Ellis, Stephen R.↗

Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all crop modelers so that other modeling groups can also test their model performance against the reference data and the GGCMI benchmark.

wheat↗

Uncertainties in Coastal Ocean Color Products: Impacts of Spatial Sampling

With increasing demands for ocean color (OC) products with improved accuracy and well characterized, per-retrieval uncertainty budgets, it is vital to decompose overall estimated errors into their primary components. Amongst various contributing elements (e.g., instrument calibration, atmospheric correction, inversion algorithms) in the uncertainty of an OC observation, less attention has been paid to uncertainties associated with spatial sampling. In this paper, we simulate MODIS (aboard both Aqua and Terra) and VIIRS OC products using 30 m resolution OC products derived from the Operational Land Imager (OLI) aboard Landsat-8, to examine impacts of spatial sampling on both cross-sensor product intercomparisons and in-situ validations of R(sub rs) products in coastal waters. Various OLI OC products representing different productivity levels and in-water spatial features were scanned for one full orbital-repeat cycle of each ocean color satellite. While some view-angle dependent differences in simulated Aqua-MODIS and VIIRS were observed, the average uncertainties (absolute) in product intercomparisons (due to differences in spatial sampling) at regional scales are found to be 1.8%, 1.9%, 2.4%, 4.3%, 2.7%, 1.8%, and 4% for the R(sub rs)(443), R(sub rs)(482), R(sub rs)(561), R(sub rs)(655), Chla, K(sub d)(482), and b(sub bp)(655) products, respectively. It is also found that, depending on in-water spatial variability and the sensor's footprint size, the errors for an in-situ validation station in coastal areas can reach as high as +/- 18%. We conclude that a) expected biases induced by the spatial sampling in product intercomparisons are mitigated when products are averaged over at least 7 km × 7 km areas, b) VIIRS observations, with improved consistency in cross-track spatial sampling, yield more precise calibration/validation statistics than that of MODIS, and c) use of a single pixel centered on in-situ coastal stations provides an optimal sampling size for validation efforts. These findings will have implications for enhancing our understanding of uncertainties in ocean color retrievals and for planning of future ocean color missions and the associated calibration/validation exercises.

Coastal ocean color↗

Spatial Statistical Data Fusion (SSDF)

As remote sensing for scientific purposes has transitioned from an experimental technology to an operational one, the selection of instruments has become more coordinated, so that the scientific community can exploit complementary measurements. However, tech nological and scientific heterogeneity across devices means that the statistical characteristics of the data they collect are different. The challenge addressed here is how to combine heterogeneous remote sensing data sets in a way that yields optimal statistical estimates of the underlying geophysical field, and provides rigorous uncertainty measures for those estimates. Different remote sensing data sets may have different spatial resolutions, different measurement error biases and variances, and other disparate characteristics. A state-of-the-art spatial statistical model was used to relate the true, but not directly observed, geophysical field to noisy, spatial aggregates observed by remote sensing instruments. The spatial covariances of the true field and the covariances of the true field with the observations were modeled. The observations are spatial averages of the true field values, over pixels, with different measurement noise superimposed. A kriging framework is used to infer optimal (minimum mean squared error and unbiased) estimates of the true field at point locations from pixel-level, noisy observations. A key feature of the spatial statistical model is the spatial mixed effects model that underlies it. The approach models the spatial covariance function of the underlying field using linear combinations of basis functions of fixed size. Approaches based on kriging require the inversion of very large spatial covariance matrices, and this is usually done by making simplifying assumptions about spatial covariance structure that simply do not hold for geophysical variables. In contrast, this method does not require these assumptions, and is also computationally much faster. This method is fundamentally different than other approaches to data fusion for remote sensing data because it is inferential rather than merely descriptive. All approaches combine data in a way that minimizes some specified loss function. Most of these are more or less ad hoc criteria based on what looks good to the eye, or some criteria that relate only to the data at hand.

Braverman, Amy J.↗

Stratospheric Analysis and Forecasting in the Northern Winter of 1999/2000: The NASA DAO's GEOS-3 System

An evaluation is presented of the performance in the northern winter 1999/2000 of the GEOS-3 troposphere-stratosphere data assimilation system (DAS). The impacts of the two main input data types are assessed: upper-air soundings (sondes) provide wind and temperature information and satellite-based (Tiros Operational Vertical Sounders: TOVS) give estimates of the thermal structure. It is shown that in the low stratosphere (300-70hPa) the analyses are generally slightly warmer than the sonde data, but colder than the TOVS data; this relationship reverses between 70 and 10 hPa. There are geographical biases, related to the spatial and temporal coverage of the observation types and to the statistical weights assigned to them in the DAS. Forecasts show a tendency to reduce zonal asymmetries in the atmospheric flow and to suppress stratospheric temperature minima. In the DAS, the analysis increments compensate for this, but it leads to important biases in the multi-day forecasts. The analysis increments are as large as the diabatic forcing in the lower polar stratosphere, indicating a substantial model bias. The results provide important insights into the roles of different data types and the circulation model in producing accurate analyses for studies of polar chemistry and physical processes.

Pawson, Steven↗

Mitigation of Attentional Tunneling in the Flight Deck Using a Spatial Auditory Display

The role of attentional bias to a specific form of information, e.g., visual versus aural instructions, was evaluated to address the issue of attentional fixation (i.e., "cognitive tunneling") in the flight deck. A method of mitigating attentional tunneling using a spatial auditory display was evaluated in the presence and absence of a biasing factor. Data were gathered for participant recognition, accuracy and response times to aural and visual instructions under different conditions of distractor stimuli. Results showed a significant main effect for target acquisition with the use of spatial audio techniques. No significant main effects or interactions were found for target acquisition timing. Target acquisition was not affected by a "gaming score" biasing factor associated with the distractor tasks.

readback errors↗

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Review of LACIE methodology, a project evaluation of technical acceptability

The author has identified the following significant results. Results indicated that the LANDSAT data and the classification technology can estimate the small grains area within a sample segment accurately and reliably enough to meet the LACIE goals. Overall, the LACIE estimates in a 9 x 11 kilometer segment agree well with ground and aircraft determined area within these segments. The estimated c.v. of the random classification error was acceptably small. These analyses confirmed that bias introduced by various factors, such as LANDSAT spatial resolution, lack of spectral resolution, classifier bias, and repeatability, was not excessive in terms of the required performance criterion. Results of these tests did indicate a difficulty in differentiating wheat from other closely related small grains. However, satisfactory wheat area estimates were obtained through the reduction of the small grain area estimates in accordance with relative amounts of these crops as determined from historic data; these procedures are being further refined.

Source record↗

Validation of an Erythema-Weighted UV Model Using Broadband Solar Irradiance Measurements From Eleven U.S. Sites: Preprint

Erythema-weighted UV solar irradiance (UV-E) has a potential impact on human health if the recommended maximum exposure times are exceeded. In spite of this, it is not measured at most sites that measure Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). However, since UV-E is highly correlated with GHI and total ozone content it can be estimated from this information with sufficient accuracy to assisst in public health recommendations. The Power Model (PM) provides a simple method to estimate the erythema-weighted UV irradiance (UV-E) from measured GHI, total ozone column and air mass. In this work, the performance of the PM method is assessed using high-quality data from 11 sites in the continental U.S. (part of SURFRAD and SOLRAD networks) and total ozone estimates publicly available from the MERRA-2 re-analysis database. A three year period (2021- 2023) at 1-minute frequency is considered. The results (for time aggregations of 5 and 60 minutes) show a high Pearson's correlations (> 0.99), consistently positive mean bias deviations (below 13%) and dispersions in the 8-19% range at all sites. Relative values are expressed in terms of the corresponding measurement mean. The performance indicators remain consistent across time resolutions (5 or 60 minutes), suggesting that the model's performance is robust and not significantly affected by short-term variability (which is captured by GHI). Spatial patterns reveal higher biases and RMSD in northern and eastern locations. These values represent a significant improvement over widely used satellite-based global UV-E estimates and open the possibility of using the PM with satellite-based GHI estimates for operational UV-E mapping over the contiguous U.S. territory.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Large Ensemble Global Dataset for Climate Impact Assessments

We present a self-consistent, large ensemble, high-resolution global dataset of long-term future climate, which accounts for the uncertainty in climate system response to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and in geographical patterns of climate change. The dataset is developed by applying an integrated spatial disaggregation (SD) - bias-correction (BC) method to climate projections from the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Four emission scenarios are considered that represent energy and environmental policies and commitments of potential future pathways, namely, Reference, Paris Forever, Paris 2 °C and Paris 1.5 °C. The dataset contains nine key meteorological variables on a monthly scale from 2021 to 2100 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x 0.5°, including precipitation, air temperature (mean, minimum and maximum), near-surface wind speed, shortwave and longwave radiation, specific humidity, and relative humidity. We demonstrate the dataset’s ability to represent climate-change responses across various regions of the globe. This dataset can be used to support regional-scale climate-related impact assessments of risk across different applications that include hydropower, water resources, ecosystem, agriculture, and sustainable development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Distribution of Snow Black Carbon observed in the Arctic and Compared to the GISS-PUCCINI Model

In this study, we evaluate the ability of the latest NASA GISS composition-climate model, GISS-E2- PUCCINI, to simulate the spatial distribution of snow BC (sBC) in the Arctic relative to present-day observations. Radiative forcing due to BC deposition onto Arctic snow and sea ice is also estimated. Two sets of model simulations are analyzed, where meteorology is linearly relaxed towards National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and towards NASA Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses. Results indicate that the modeled concentrations of sBC are comparable with presentday observations in and around the Arctic Ocean, except for apparent underestimation at a few sites in the Russian Arctic. That said, the model has some biases in its simulated spatial distribution of BC deposition to the Arctic. The simulations from the two model runs are roughly equal, indicating that discrepancies between model and observations come from other sources. Underestimation of biomass burning emissions in Northern Eurasia may be the main cause of the low biases in the Russian Arctic. Comparisons of modeled aerosol BC (aBC) with long-term surface observations at Barrow, Alert, Zeppelin and Nord stations show significant underestimation in winter and spring concentrations in the Arctic (most significant in Alaska), although the simulated seasonality of aBC has been greatly improved relative to earlier model versions. This is consistent with simulated biases in vertical profiles of aBC, with underestimation in the lower and middle troposphere but overestimation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, suggesting that the wet removal processes in the current model may be too weak or that vertical transport is too rapid, although the simulated BC lifetime seems reasonable. The combination of observations and modeling provides a comprehensive distribution of sBC over the Arctic. On the basis of this distribution, we estimate the decrease in snow and sea ice albedo and the resulting radiative forcing. We suggest that the albedo reduction due to BC deposition presents significant space-time variations, with highest mean reductions of 1.25% in the Russian Arctic, which are much larger than those in other Arctic regions (0.39% to 0.64 %). The averaged value over the Arctic north of 66degN is 0.4-0.6% during spring, leading to regional surface radiative forcings of 0.7, 1.1 and 1.0Wm(exp−2) in spring 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively.

Dou, T.↗

Analysis of the Trial-By-Trial Correlation Between Eye Movement and Perceptual Responses to Moving Plaids

We have previously shown that windowing a drifting plaid with an asymmetric spatial Gaussian produces systematic biases of similar magnitude in both the perceived direction of motion and the direction of the eye movement response. To further investigate this, we simultaneously measured the pyschophysical and eye-movement responses (with an ISCAN RK426 IR tracker)to drifting plaids in a direction discrimination task. Three observers were instructed to track a plaid (Type I 90 deg.; TF = 4 Hz, SF = 0.6 c/d; windowed by a circular spatial gaussian) and to respond whether the motion was to the right or left of pure vertical. Three plaid directions were presented (-2, 0, 2 deg. with respect to straight down), so there was uncertainty in the perceptual judgements. This enabled us to examine the trial-by-trial relationship between the eye movements and psychophysical responses. The eye-movement direction was computed to be the slope of the best fitting line to the initial 300 ms of saccade-free tracking (near open-loop). Again, we found the mean psychophysical and oculomotor responses were correlated. The mean percentages of rightward responses were 6, 27, 87%, and the mean normalized eye-movement directions were -1.5, 0, and 1.0 deg. for the -2, 0, and 2 deg. stimuli respectively. We also computed the trial-by-trial correlation by performing an SOC analysis. The mean correlations were 0.52, 0.66, and 0.67 for our three observers. Because of eye-tracker measurement noise, the above results are lower limits on the actual correlation. These results support the view that the oculomotor and perceptual system share common motion inputs.

Beutter, Brent R.↗

Comparison of simulated cloud cover with satellite obsrvations over the Western United States

Satellite imagery datasets and regional climate model results are intercompared for evaluation of model accuracy in the simulation of cloud cover. Both monthly average individual simulation times are analyzed. To provide a consistent comparison, satellite data are first mapped into the model's geographic projection, grid domain, and resolution. It is found that September 1988 monthly average cloud fraction results from the modeled simulations correspond to observations, in both spatial pattern and magnitude, with bias less than +/- 20% cloud fraction over the entire inland West. Agreement in the pattern of cloud fraction also is evident for monthly average cloud fraction in July, but there is no negative bias of 10%-30% cloud fraction in the model diagnosis of cloud cover. Correlations between the spatial distributions of model-derived and observed cloud fractions are found to exceed 0.80 for certain geographic regions of the West, and these correlations are largest over mountainous areas during summer. Case studies of a series of daily cloud cover demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate the effects of frontal passage on cloud distribution. The ability of the RegCM1 to simulate daily cloud fraction and diurnal cloud evolution is somewhat weak for the summer convective season. It is anticipated that a more recent version of the regional climate model may improve the simulation of summer season cloud cover, through changes in cloud parameterization and improvements in model resolution.

Wetzel, Melanie A.↗

A novel approach to increase accuracy in remotely sensed evapotranspiration through basin water balance and flux tower constraints

Remote sensing-derived evapotranspiration (RSET) products capture the spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET) from field to basin scales with unprecedented details. However, their accuracy varies across RSET estimation methods and diverse hydroclimate regions. While ET modeling efforts to account for biophysical processes and controlling parameters have made good progress in recent years, a parallel approach of integrating in-situ ET with RSET could reduce biases in RSET products. Basin water balance ET (WBET) and flux tower ET are widely applied to evaluate RSET accuracy, yet such ET measurements are rarely used for RSET bias corrections, especially for large area applications. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach: the water balance equivalence (WABE) method, which generates spatially continuous WBET for correcting biases in RSET products. The WABE method computes synthetic WBET by integrating observed WBET and flux tower-derived FLUXCOM ET, which fills the spatial gaps of observed WBET and generates a spatially continuous WBET dataset. Synthetic WBET (2002–2015 annual average) of eight-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins across the conterminous United States (CONUS), constituting 44 % (887 out of 2035 basins) of CONUS basins, was determined within 2.0 % (RMSE = 12 %) of observed WBET at CONUS and between 1–12 % (RMSE = 3–33 %) across 18 regions in CONUS. With WABE-based bias corrections, the overall annual bias of RSET decreased from 10 % (RMSE = 34 %) to 6 % (RMSE = 26 %) across 37 flux tower sites. The WABE method offers a new approach for RSET accuracy improvement and shows great promise for large area implementations with a potential to yield substantial benefits for building accurate basin water budgets and water management decisions.

Khand, Kul↗

Agricultural Breadbaskets Shift Poleward Given Adaptive Farmer Behavior Under Climate Change

Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global “breadbaskets”. A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end-of-century warming using 7 process-based models simulating 5 major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.

adaptation↗

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1∕8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

extreme climate index↗

Chandra measurements of gas homogeneity and turbulence at intermediate radii in the Perseus Cluster

ABSTRACT We present a Chandra study of surface brightness fluctuations in the diffuse intracluster medium of the Perseus Cluster. Our study utilizes deep, archival imaging of the cluster core as well as a new mosaic of 29 short $\, 5\,$-ks observations extending in eight different directions out to radii of $r_{500} \sim 2.2\, r_{2500}$. Under the assumption that the distribution of densities at a given radius is log-normally distributed, two important quantities can be derived from the width of the log-normal density distribution on a given spatial scale: the density bias, that is equal to the square root of the clumping factor C; and the one-component turbulent velocity, vk,1D. We forward-model all contributions to the measured surface brightness, including astrophysical and particle background components, and account for the Poisson nature of the measured signal. Measuring the distribution of surface brightness fluctuations in 1 arcmin2 regions, spanning the radial range $0.3\rm {-}2.2\, r_{2500}$ ($7.8\rm {-}57.3\,$ arcmin), we find a small to moderate average density bias of around $3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ at radii below $1.6\, r_{2500}$. We also infer an average turbulent velocity at these radii of V1D < 400 km s−1. Direct confirmation of our results on turbulent velocities inferred from surface brightness fluctuations should be possible using the X-ray calorimeter spectrometers to be flown aboard the XRISM and Athena observatories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗