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At least 91 records · Page 5

On the transport and acceleration of solar flare particles in a coronal loop

The turbulent environment of a flaring solar coronal loop directly affects the population of particles to be accelerated or already accelerated. Under the assumption of a uniform turbulent MHD wave field within the loop, the behavior of a particle distribution as it interacts with the turbulence is discussed, including particle precipitation to the footpoints of the loop and the evolution of the energy distribution as the particles undergo second-order stochastic acceleration. Two cases are discussed in detail: (1) particles spatially diffusing within the loop and precipitating with minimal acceleration in the short time scale of an impulsive event and (2) particles diffusing in both real and momentum space in a long duration event. Collisional losses due to ambient electrons are included. The gamma-ray flare of June 3, 1982 is modeled, and good agreement is obtained between predicted and observed time profiles if the loop length is 100,000 km with an intrinsic spatial diffusion time of 100-450 s. It follows that the production of high-energy neutrons and pi mesons extends over a time scale of 1000 s as observed.

Ryan, James M.↗

Stochastic acceleration of cometary pickup ions - The classic leaky box model

The acceleration of cometary pickup ions by magnetohydrodynamic waves at P/Giacobini-Zinner is examined in a model where acceleration predominantly occurs downstream of the bow shock throughout the cometosheath where intense magnetic turbulence exists. The mean free path for scattering by the magnetic fluctuations in this region is less than the characteristic dimension of the cometosheath so that pickup ions are rendered isotropic and energized by a modest amount in the process. This principal loss mechanism for the ions is spatial diffusion out of the acceleration region moderated by the self-same accelerating waves. This particular feature constrains the model in a way that the predicted ion spectrum is uniquely determined by the power spectrum of the magnetic turbulence. At both P/Giacobini-Zinner and P/Halley, the turbulence is non-Kolmogoroff with a spectral index of 2 resulting in an ion spectral behavior that is approximately an exponential in ion speed, consistent with a recent analysis of the Giacobini-Zinner data (see Richardson et al.).

Barbosa, D. D.↗

Probabilistic structural analysis computer code (NESSUS)

Probabilistic structural analysis has been developed to analyze the effects of fluctuating loads, variable material properties, and uncertain analytical models especially for high performance structures such as SSME turbopump blades. The computer code NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress) was developed to serve as a primary computation tool for the characterization of the probabilistic structural response due to the stochastic environments by statistical description. The code consists of three major modules NESSUS/PRE, NESSUS/FEM, and NESSUS/FPI. NESSUS/PRE is a preprocessor which decomposes the spatially correlated random variables into a set of uncorrelated random variables using a modal analysis method. NESSUS/FEM is a finite element module which provides structural sensitivities to all the random variables considered. NESSUS/FPI is Fast Probability Integration method by which a cumulative distribution function or a probability density function is calculated.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Mesh-Based Entry Vehicle and Explosive Debris Re-Contact Probability Modeling

The risk to a crewed vehicle arising from potential re-contact with fragments from an explosive breakup of any jettisoned spacecraft segments during entry has long sought to be quantified. However, great difficulty lies in efficiently capturing the potential locations of each fragment and their collective threat to the vehicle. The method presented in this paper addresses this problem by using a stochastic approach that discretizes simulated debris pieces into volumetric cells, and then assesses strike probabilities accordingly. Combining spatial debris density and relative velocity between the debris and the entry vehicle, the strike probability can be calculated from the integral of the debris flux inside each cell over time. Using this technique it is possible to assess the risk to an entry vehicle along an entire trajectory as it separates from the jettisoned segment. By decoupling the fragment trajectories from that of the entry vehicle, multiple potential separation maneuvers can then be evaluated rapidly to provide an assessment of the best strategy to mitigate the re-contact risk.

McPherson, Mark A.↗

Simulation of Radiation-Induced DNA Damage With the Code RITRACKS

INTRODUCTION DNA damage is one of the most physiologically important effects of ionizing radiation. Clustered DNA damage events, like double-strand breaks (DSBs), have the most notable biological consequences. DNA damage types depend on both the track structure of the radiation and the spatial organization of the DNA. High linear energy transfer (LET) charged nuclei, found in galactic cosmic rays (GCR), are known to produce large numbers of complex DNA damage events. The human genome is packaged into chromatin, which can take on locus-dependent and cell type-dependent spatial conformations that correspond to epigenetic states, such as more open, extended structures in transcriptionally active chromatin. These epigenetic differences can affect DNA break patterns in response to ionizing radiation, potentially creating distinct DNA repair and signaling outcomes across the genome in different cells. MATERIAL AND METHODS The code RITRACKS (Relativistic Ion Tracks), which simulates stochastic radiation track structures and radiation chemistry, was used to model damage on isolated and histone-bound DNA by various types of ions and photons. The changes made to the code to perform radiation-induced DNA damage, and simulation results on single nucleosomes are given in our recent paper. In this work, the DNA building capabilities of RITRACKS have been extended to simulate more complex DNA structures build on the coarse-grain simulation framework meso-WLCsim. This code can sample generic chromatin fiber conformation ensembles based on the geometry of nucleosomes and mechanical properties of DNA. Using RITRACKS, we simulated the fragment length distributions (FLD) of irradiated DNA structures built using the chromatin conformations of WLCsim and obtained results representative of those obtained with Radiation-Induced Correlated Cleavage with sequencing (RICC-Seq) experiments [6]. We have also performed Fe ion and photon irradiations of K562, IMR90, BJ and RPE-1 cells at NSRL to experimentally validate results. Sample processing and data analysis are in progress and any available preliminary results will be discussed. DISCUSSION The recent updates in the code RITRACKS allow the calculation of several quantities such as the DNA damage yield and the FLD. This approach can be used to model epigenetic state-specific chromatin structure parameters to leverage the epigenetic state data available for many human cell types to infer relative DNA damage sensitivity among genomic loci.

I Plante↗

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km by 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

general circulation model (GCM)↗

Spatial modelling of total storm rainfall

The spatial structure of the depth of rainfall from a stationary storm event is investigated by using point process techniques. Cells are assumed to be stationary and to be distributed in space either independently according to a Poisson process, or with clustering according to a Neyman-Scott scheme. Total storm rainfall at the centre of each cell is a random variable and rainfall is distributed around the centre in a way specified by a spread function that may incorporate random parameters. The mean, variance and covariance structure of the precipitation depth at a point are obtained for different spread functions. For exponentially distributed centre depth and a spread function having quadratically exponential decay, the total storm depth at any point in the field is shown to have a gamma distribution. The probability of zero rainfall at a point is investigated, as is the stochastic variability of model parameters from storm to storm. Data from the Upper Rio Guaire basin in Venezuela are used in illustration.

Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.↗

Romie: A Domain-Independent Tool for Computer-Aided Robust Operations Management

Romie is a decision support tool based on AI's latest advances in the domain of robust scheduling. Unlike all its predecessors, the tool allows to (i) visually model the operational problem and context entirely (ii) optimize to find near-optimal schedules while taking uncertainty into account and deals with (iii) a combination of various {key performance indicators (KPIs). It comes with a web user interface. Part or all of the modelled activities may be associated to random variables describing their stochastic durations, in order to produce schedules that are robust w.r.t. temporal uncertainty. Hence, depending on the pursued KPIs, the schedules maximize a combination of the following terms: the probability of satisfying the problem constraints, the expected return/efficiency, the expected outcome quality, and even the operators' wellness by minimizing its expected extra-hours. Initially developed for spatial exploration and demonstration in the context of Mars analog missions, this versatile tool is here applied to operations management in both biotechnology manufacturing and robots parametrization in a cave exploration context.

Chien, Steve A.↗

A Multiscale Progressive Failure Modeling Methodology for Composites that Includes Fiber Strength Stochastics

A multiscale modeling methodology was developed for continuous fiber composites that incorporates a statistical distribution of fiber strengths into coupled multiscale micromechanics/finite element (FE) analyses. A modified two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function, which accounts for the effect of fiber length on the probability of failure, was used to characterize the statistical distribution of fiber strengths. A parametric study using the NASA Micromechanics Analysis Code with the Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) was performed to assess the effect of variable fiber strengths on local composite failure within a repeating unit cell (RUC) and subsequent global failure. The NASA code FEAMAC and the ABAQUS finite element solver were used to analyze the progressive failure of a unidirectional SCS-6/TIMETAL 21S metal matrix composite tensile dogbone specimen at 650 degC. Multiscale progressive failure analyses were performed to quantify the effect of spatially varying fiber strengths on the RUC-averaged and global stress-strain responses and failure. The ultimate composite strengths and distribution of failure locations (predominately within the gage section) reasonably matched the experimentally observed failure behavior. The predicted composite failure behavior suggests that use of macroscale models that exploit global geometric symmetries are inappropriate for cases where the actual distribution of local fiber strengths displays no such symmetries. This issue has not received much attention in the literature. Moreover, the model discretization at a specific length scale can have a profound effect on the computational costs associated with multiscale simulations.models that yield accurate yet tractable results.

Generalized Method of Cells↗

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km x 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

climate projection↗

A polymer, random walk model for the size-distribution of large DNA fragments after high linear energy transfer radiation

DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) produced by densely ionizing radiation are not located randomly in the genome: recent data indicate DSB clustering along chromosomes. Stochastic DSB clustering at large scales, from > 100 Mbp down to < 0.01 Mbp, is modeled using computer simulations and analytic equations. A random-walk, coarse-grained polymer model for chromatin is combined with a simple track structure model in Monte Carlo software called DNAbreak and is applied to data on alpha-particle irradiation of V-79 cells. The chromatin model neglects molecular details but systematically incorporates an increase in average spatial separation between two DNA loci as the number of base-pairs between the loci increases. Fragment-size distributions obtained using DNAbreak match data on large fragments about as well as distributions previously obtained with a less mechanistic approach. Dose-response relations, linear at small doses of high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, are obtained. They are found to be non-linear when the dose becomes so large that there is a significant probability of overlapping or close juxtaposition, along one chromosome, for different DSB clusters from different tracks. The non-linearity is more evident for large fragments than for small. The DNAbreak results furnish an example of the RLC (randomly located clusters) analytic formalism, which generalizes the broken-stick fragment-size distribution of the random-breakage model that is often applied to low-LET data.

DNA/radiation effects↗

Natural Hazard Risk Assessments at the Global Scale

Since 1990, natural hazards have led to over 1.6 million fatalities globally, and economic losses are estimated at an average of around USD 260–310 billion per year. The scientific and policy communities recognise the need to reduce these risks. As a result, the last decade has seen a rapid development of global models for assessing risk from natural hazards at the global scale. In this paper, we review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, and we specifically examine whether and how they have examined future projections of hazard, exposure, and/or vulnerability. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards, and we identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. For example, there are a number of global risk studies focusing on hydrological, climatological, and meteorological hazards that have included future projections and disaster risk reduction measures (in the case of floods), whereas fewer exist in the peer-reviewed literature for global studies related to geological hazards. On the other hand, studies of earthquake and tsunami risk are now using stochastic modelling approaches to allow for a fully probabilistic assessment of risk, which could benefit the modelling of risk from other hazards. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales. Through this paper, we hope to encourage further dialogue on knowledge sharing between disciplines and communities working on different hazards and risk and at different spatial scales.

Philip J. Ward↗

Inter-annual variation of tropical cyclones simulated by GEOS-5 AGCM with modified convection scheme

The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) global climate model with a 50-km horizontal resolution is forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) to examine the fidelity of the seasonal-mean and inter-annual variation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the North Atlantic (NATL). The standard Relaxed Arakawa Schubert (RAS) deep convection scheme is modified to improve the representation of TCs, where the scheme implements a stochastic limit of the cumulus entrainment rate. The modification drives mid- and upper-tropospheric cooling and low- to mid-tropospheric drying in the background state, which tends to increase atmospheric instability. This enables the model to increase convective variability on an intra-seasonal timescale and improve the simulation of intense storms. Five-member ensemble runs with the modified RAS scheme for 12 years (1998–2009) exhibit realistic spatial distributions in the climatological-mean TC development area and their pathways over WNP and NATL. The GCM is able to reproduce the inter-annual variation of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) by prescribing yearly varying observed SST even though the individual TC intensity is still underpredicted. A sensitivity of TC activity to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase is also reproduced realistically over WNP in terms of the spatial pattern changes in the main development region and TC pathways. However, the model exhibits a notable deficiency in NATL in reproducing the observed inter-annual variation of TC activity and the sensitivity to the ENSO.

accumulated cyclone energy↗

Does ion tearing exist?

Theoretical models of reconnection in the geomagnetic tail and its relationship to the collisionless tearing mode are examined analytically. The focus is on attempts to remove the stabilizing effects of electron compressibility in the quasi-neutral sheet. It is shown that this goal can be achieved by introducing spatial diffusion of electrons across the magnetic-flux surfaces, but not by wave-turbulent pitch-angle scattering (Coroniti, 1980) or nonadiabatic stochastic first-invariant diffusion (Buechner and Zelenyi, 1988). Hence the ion tearing mode does not exist, but the electron tearing mode does.

Pellat, R.↗

The spatial structure of terrain - A process signal in satellite digital images

Pattern recognition procedures applied to Landsat imagery carry an implicit assumption that the digital data are independently distributed. That assumption is incorrect over virtually any terrain. Deviations from independence occur because slopes follow a systematic pattern of variation arising from the slope-forming processes. That pattern can be identified using the stochastic process methodology of Box and Jenkins.Angles of adjacent slopes are autocorrelated and the bidirectional reflectance function transfers these systematic slope changes to the sensor. Imagery becomes autocorrelated through this transfer. Autocorrelation in the imagery can be removed through direct calculation from a digital elevation model or by use of stochastic process methodology. The latter has the advantage that the residuals are white noise; and it is applicable in any area, even where a D.E.M. is unavailable. The stochastic process signal can be used to study terrain processes.

Craig, R. G.↗

Use of LANDSAT images of vegetation cover to estimate effective hydraulic properties of soils

The estimation of the spatially variable surface moisture and heat fluxes of natural, semivegetated landscapes is difficult due to the highly random nature of the vegetation (e.g., plant species, density, and stress) and the soil (e.g., moisture content, and soil hydraulic conductivity). The solution to that problem lies, in part, in the use of satellite remotely sensed data, and in the preparation of those data in terms of the physical properties of the plant and soil. The work was focused on the development and testing of a stochastic geometric canopy-soil reflectance model, which can be applied to the physically-based interpretation of LANDSAT images. The model conceptualizes the landscape as a stochastic surface with bulk plant and soil reflective properties. The model is particularly suited for regional scale investigations where the quantification of the bulk landscape properties, such as fractional vegetation cover, is important on a pixel by pixel basis. A summary of the theoretical analysis and the preliminary testing of the model with actual aerial radiometric data is provided.

Eagleson, Peter S.↗

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA Radiation Track Image GUI for Assessing Space Radiation Biological Effects

The high-charge high-energy (HZE) ion components of the galactic cosmic rays when compared to terrestrial forms of radiations present unique challenges to biological systems. In this paper we present a deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) breakage model to visualize and analyze the impact of chromatin domains and DNA loops on clustering of DNA damage from X rays, protons, and HZE ions. Our model of DNA breakage is based on a stochastic process of DNA double-strand break (DSB) formulation that includes the amorphous model of the radiation track and a polymer model of DNA packed in the cell nucleus. Our model is a Monte-Carlo simulation based on a randomly located DSB cluster formulation that accomodates both high- and low-linear energy transfer radiations. We demonstrate that HZE ions have a strong impact on DSB clustering, both along the chromosome length and in the nucleus volume. The effects of chromosomal domains and DNA loops on the DSB fragment-size distribution and the spatial distribution of DSB in the nucleus were studied. We compare our model predictions with the spatial distribution of DSB obtained from experiments. The implications of our model predictions for radiation protection are discussed.

Ponomarev, Artem L.↗