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DOE OSTI2024

National Fire Protection Association Spurs the Safe Adoption of EVs Through Education and Outreach

As electric vehicles (EV) and their charging infrastructure steadily increase in popularity across the U.S., growing pains still exist, impeding their true potential for growth. The barriers include a general lack of knowledge around EV systems, range anxiety, electrical workplace safety practices, code compliance and inspection for charging stations, maintenance garages and workers, insurance concerns, and the potential risks associated with damaged lithium-ion batteries (fires, re-ignition, water immersion, and stranded energy).NFPA partnered with SMEs, training development organizations, and Clean City Coalitions to create a series of common online trainings for each EV ecosystem sector, educating communities on the realities of EV proliferation, myths, facts, statistics, codes, and basic information for each sector to become versed in EV knowledge. We also constructed a workshop program for the many EV stakeholders who should be involved in setting up a strategic, cohesive outlook for the participating towns and cities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Second Report of the Nuclear Data Subcommittee of the Nuclear Science Advisory Committee

The central importance of the nuclear data curated by the US Nuclear Data Program (USNDP) for clean energy generation, national security, nonproliferation, medical applications, and space exploration as well as basic science was described in a prior report issued by the DOE/NSF Nuclear Science Advisory Committee subcommittee on Nuclear Data (NSAC-ND) in September 2022. In this report, we present a set of fourteen (14) recommendations that will enhance and advance DOE-NP's stewardship of nuclear data. The first three recommendations focus on the existing core USNDP capabilities, namely: 1) Support the nuclear structure evaluation workforce to improve the currency, consistency, and accessibility of the Evaluated Nuclear Structure Data File (ENSDF); 2) Enhance nuclear reaction evaluation within the USNDP in support of the Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF) through expansion of the workforce and integration of high-performance computing, automation, and machine learning and; 3) Continue atomic mass evaluation in support AME and NUBASE databases. This is followed by eight (8) recommendations representing new cross-cutting initiatives involving both measurement and evaluation to address outstanding nuclear data needs. These new initiatives require a highly trained, diverse workforce that includes personnel with expertise from both inside and outside the nuclear physics community from which evaluators have traditionally been recruited. As such, many of these initiatives are accomplished via a Topical Nuclear Data Collaborations (TNDC). A TNDC is made up of domestic and international stakeholders, subject matter and nuclear data experts, and nuclear data evaluators and features a workforce development plan to ensure that nuclear data evaluators maintain currency in the relevant applications and are seen as equity partners in the endeavor. These include: 1) Establish a coordinated effort to improve evaluation and modeling in nuclear astrophysics for stellar dynamics, multi-messenger astronomy and nucleosynthesis; 2) Initiate a TNDC to develop and maintain nuclear structure evaluation beyond discrete states, including nuclear level densities, photon strength functions and photonuclear data for improved reaction modeling, and exploring nuclear structure at finite temperature; 3) Create a TNDC to perform correlated fission data evaluation, including cross sections, fragment yields, v(A), v(E n ) for nuclear energy, national security, nonproliferation and basic science; 4) From a panel of subject matter experts to establish and annually update a roster of key decay data to nurture its accelerated dissemination including both measurement and evaluation for targeted high-value nuclides for national security, nonproliferation and medical applications; 5) Comprehensive, consistent neutron-induced structure and reaction data for nuclear energy, national security, nonproliferation and planetary nuclear spectroscopy; 6) Charged-particle stopping powers for detector design, space effects and ion beam therapy; 7) High-energy reactions for space exploration and medical nuclide production, and; 8) The creation of an infrastructure for open data and data preservation for use by the entire nuclear physics community. All told, these initiatives require approximately $6.5M increase in NP support of the USNDP in fiscal year 2023 dollars and would require at least 3-5 years to carry out due to the length of time needed to recruit and train new nuclear data researchers. This relatively modest investment would help ensure that the fruits of the nuclear data research carried out by DOE-NP and its collaborators would be brought to bear to address some of the most important needs of our nation and the world. To ensure effective execution of this plan, we present an overview of recruitment, training, and retention goals for the USNDP, the centerpiece of which is a mutually agreed upon code of conduct. Finally, we identify the facility and instrumentation needed to perform the recommended experimental activities. This includes a short review of target fabrication capabilities, reactors, neutron beam, light- and heavy-stable ion, gamma-ray, high-energy and radioactive ion beam facilities. Lastly, a more complete appendix of experimental facilities previously compiled is included with new input provided for 6 facilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Plant Summit 2019

The Plant Science Research Network organized the Plant Summit 2019, which took place February 10-13, 2019 at Biosphere 2 (Oracle, AZ). The Summit brought together plant scientists from many quarters, including stakeholders from academic institutions, government, nonprofits, and private industry with a broad range of experience in plant science research and education. Participants were guided through a facilitated workshop to review and assess the outcomes from previous PSRN workshops on cyberinfrastructure, postgraduate training, broadening participation, and future scenarios. An outcome of the Summit is the development of a report, “The Plant Science Decadal Vision (2020-2030): Reimagining the Potential of Plants for a Healthy Future.” The Decadal Vision frames societally vital, exciting and far-reaching research challenges as being necessary and deeply interwoven with human and technical resources. An Executive Summary of that report is provided.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

2025 TEM Workshop

The TEM Data Management Workshop will take place on August 26 from 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. MT, and will be held virtually on TEAMS. The primary goal of this workshop is to engage NSUF users and stakeholders in discussions about the data needs for the utilization of AI and ML in the analysis of TEM data. Key topics to be covered include data storage, data sharing, data tagging, metadata inclusion, standardized data formats, data augmentation, and annotated training datasets. Additionally, the workshop will provide valuable insights into resources such as the Nuclear Research Data System (NRDS) for data storage and sharing, as well as open-source codes for data analysis.

Bachhav, Mukesh↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Cybersecurity Threat Profile for a Connected Lighting System

In this paper we analyze a threat profile performed on a fault-detection use case for streetlights. A threat profile establishes security requirements, justifies security measures, yields actionable controls, and effectively communicates risk to stakeholders. This effort provides critical information for making threat-based decisions to increase security at a reasonable cost, and can effectively be used by development teams, software architects, and managers to make cybersecurity a part of their ongoing culture of awareness, training, and prevention. This leads to more secure systems and better-understood security. On-premise, cloud, and hybrid architectures with different authentication mechanisms were modeled and later categorized using the Microsoft STRIDE framework. An analysis of the recommended controls for each threat was performed to determine which controls could and should be put in place by manufacturers or third-party suppliers, and which controls need to be left up the end-user to implement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

From IMPEL to Impact: Lessons Learned in Accelerating Innovative Building Technologies

The built environment is a complex ecosystem of social institutions and physical infrastructures. Innovation and entrepreneurship in the building industry are critical levers for market transformation toward equitable climate action. However, climate tech innovation for the built environment is not moving fast enough for global needs, and it lacks fundamental diversity, leading to inequitable outcomes. IMPEL (Incubating Market-propelled Entrepreneurial-mindset at the Labs and Beyond) - a U.S. Department of Energy incubator–addresses these critical issues. Over five years, IMPEL has enabled 250 innovators, including 55% women and diverse founders, to accelerate their buildings and clean energy technologies towards market and climate impact. IMPEL provides access to strategic mentoring and coaching, carbon tools training, testbeds, and powerful public-private pipelines, including industry demonstrations, non-dilutive grants, and venture capital networks. The IMPEL innovation ecosystem has accelerated the pace of innovation and market adoption of building decarbonization technologies. In this paper, leverage the IMPEL stakeholder ecosystem - from innovators to investors and product industry to policymakers - to analyze the critical barriers to decarbonization still encountered in the building industry. We study the IMPEL approach and highlight lessons learned that benefit young businesses pursuing innovative building and building-edge energy technologies to develop new ideas and products. Finally, we propose a ‘market forming’ framework to improve the quality and efficiency of the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the building industry. This framework could scale vetted technologies and the participation of diverse founders to de-risk the climate tech

Singh, Reshma↗
DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Mid-Century Net-Zero Scenario for the State of Wyoming and its Economic Impacts

Clean hydrogen has the potential to help achieve 10% economy-wide emissions reductions by 2050 relative to 2005, promote energy security and resilience, and develop a new economy in the United States. In 2030, the hydrogen economy could create about 100,000 new jobs to build new capital projects and clean hydrogen infrastructure. The Wyoming Energy Authority recently announced the state’s energy strategy, which establishes a goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Under all likely scenarios, achieving a mid-century net-zero target will pose challenges and create opportunities for Wyoming’s energy sector. If executed properly, the transition could favorably affect the state’s economy overall in the long term. This research program examines the economic impact of fossil energy production in Wyoming and provides various predictions for future energy mixes to achieve net-zero emissions. Preliminary work suggests that Wyoming-based hydrogen production could have significant economic benefits and job creation implications for Wyoming. This study further assesses Wyoming’s opportunities to create hydrogen-based industries, assess economic impacts, identify knowledge gaps and research needs, and create a Hydrogen Center of Excellence to accelerate commercialization and deployment. This project helped to understand Wyoming's areas of focus for research and development and identified its areas of strength and potential challenges in creating a hydrogen ecosystem. As a result of this study, we estimate that for blue hydrogen produced from coal and gas resources, the overall cost reduction will be driven mainly by the carbon-sequestration tax credit and the improvement in carbon capture. Mature technologies, like SMR and PSA, will make limited contributions. They have no or limited reductions from an additional capacity deployment in future costs. We also understand the importance of continued support from public and private sectors for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)-related research, development, and demonstration programs at federal and state levels. The successful and efficient production of blue hydrogen requires a unique blend of energy resources, geology, regulation, law, and infrastructure. Wyoming has the distinction of meeting all these demands. The team also estimates that the availability and command of water resources accessible for hydrogen production are crucial for developing new projects. Water treatment, use, and disposal after treatment will also make projects possible. Primarily, this is relevant for hydrogen made using renewable energy. Wyoming has one of the best wind resource capacity in the nation. Harnessing this resource is challenging due to limited transmission line availability. Hydrogen could become one of the solutions to the stranded resource problem, primarily if the water availability challenge is addressed. Using produced oil & gas water could help to solve the problem. A commonly cited barrier to the expansion of hydrogen markets is the cost associated with constructing new pipelines, which typically require large amounts of capital to develop. Wyoming already possesses much of the export infrastructure needed to connect Wyoming’s hydrogen production with major markets across the West Coast, Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and Front Range regions of the United States, where a large portion of Wyoming’s natural gas is already transported. In addition to transportation by pipeline, rail transportation of hydrogen has also proven feasible. Wyoming uses its extensive railway system to transport large amounts of coal to its export partners across the United States. By using cryogenic or compressed-gas cars, Wyoming has the potential to add hydrogen to its existing network of railroad energy exports. The same technology may also be applied to hydrogen transport via trucks traveling interstate highways. Wyoming’s workforce is ready to meet the demands of clean hydrogen development. Many of the skills and training needed for hydrogen production are the same skills already possessed by Wyoming’s oil & gas and coal workforce. Many government and industry leaders expect clean hydrogen and other low-carbon energy projects to generate significant job growth and to recruit many already-trained oil & gas and coal workers whose jobs may be displaced. As energy companies seek to penetrate the markets for Wyoming hydrogen production, there is a natural mutual benefit to Wyoming’s workers and companies seeking to launch projects with the assistance of a trained workforce. Wyoming’s university and community college system have adopted several programs to ensure that highly qualified engineers and other technically skilled employees continue to graduate with skills to support the development of hydrogen and other innovative energy projects moving forward. Throughout the project, stakeholder outreach and education took many forms, including meetings with several major companies in the industry, collaborating with local government organizations, educational organizations, and national laboratories, tribal outreach and engagement, the sponsoring of several hydrogen-focused projects in many departments throughout the University of Wyoming, and developing a collaboration with international universities. The products of these collaborations consist of working relationships with several companies in the industry, educational institutions, national labs, and local government, as well as strong connections with individuals who will play an essential role in the success of the Hydrogen Energy Research Center.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

State of Innovation 2025: Progress in Accelerating Next-Generation Cement and Concrete Technologies

The cement and concrete sectors are entering a decisive period as next-generation technologies advance from laboratory research to demonstration, early deployment, and first-of-a-kind commercial plants. Building on the 2024 State of Innovation report, the 2025 outlook highlights both the rapid acceleration of innovation and the urgent need for coordinated action across the value chain. Venture capital activity into the cement and concrete space stabilized following the record surge of 2022-2023, yet landmark financings, such as Sublime Systems' $200 million round and Terra CO2's $124 million Series B, signal continued investor confidence in companies approaching commercialization. Corporate procurement has become a powerful new catalyst, with Microsoft, Amazon, and CRH (Cement Roadstone Holdings) Ventures providing long-term commitments that underpin the first wave of next-generation cementitious products. The sector is shifting from early-stage experimentation toward the scaling of well-capitalized leaders capable of bridging the critical "capitalization gap." Early innovators continue to expand the toolkit through novel binders, electrochemical cements, biogenic limestone, and carbonate mineralization pathways. Going into 2026, cost competitiveness, durability validation, and scalability enabled by resilient supply chains remain the decisive factors for market adoption. At the 2025 Next Generation Cement and Concrete Critical Technologies Meeting, attendees emphasized dual-track funding strategies that integrate federal grants with private capital as key to enabling market breakthrough. State programs and corporate demand are sustaining momentum, while successful companies increasingly demonstrate both economic value and reduced dependence on imported materials. The National Concrete Pavement Technology Center and others underscored that broad integration of next-generation materials will hinge on standards compatibility, verified field performance, and workforce readiness. Colorado continues to serve as a proving ground through pilot programs that combine supplier training, phased implementation, and real-world data to de-risk innovation and provide replicable models for other regions. The 2025 Cement and Concrete Critical Technologies Workshop reinforced that scaling next-generation materials will require alignment among technology innovation, performance validation, and market demand. Stakeholders must move beyond siloed efforts toward collaborative frameworks that coordinate standards, funding, and infrastructure deployment. As a neutral convener and technical validator, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) plays a pivotal role in bridging innovation and market adoption through collaborative research, technology validation, and entrepreneurship programs. By uniting innovators, incumbents, policymakers, contractors, and investors, NLR and its partners are helping chart a credible pathway toward widespread commercialization in the decade ahead.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Collaborations of the NEAMS Center of Excellence in 2025

The mission of the NEAMS Center of Excellence for Thermal-fluids Applications in Nuclear Energy is to advance the goals of the NEAMS program by providing leadership, best practices, research, and support and training for computational thermal hydraulics. In particular NEAMS tools are being developed to ultimately span the entire range of length- and time-scales required for a comprehensive reactor design and safety analysis. The focus of The Center is on the use, best practices, and deployment to stakeholders of the thermal hydraulic codes. The Center of Excellence, originally launched in 2018, has as its key goal to serve as a “front door” to industry. As part of this goal, The Center is in its sixth year of a program to engage in collaborative efforts between the laboratories and industry with the objective of stimulating cooperation and increasing the adoption of thermal hydraulics tools developed under NEAMS by the industry at large. With an overwhelmingly positive response from participants, previous short-term projects have led to more in-depth collaborations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Short term collaborations of the NEAMS Center of Excellence: third wave

A primary goal of the Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program is to develop the next generation of simulations tools to support the design and deployment of commercial nuclear power. The mission of the NEAMS Center of Excellence for Thermal-fluids Applications in Nuclear Energy is to advance this goal by providing leadership, best practices, research, and support and training for computational thermal-fluids applications in nuclear energy. This is accomplished by leveraging expertise in the NEAMS tools to solve challenging problems in fluid flow and heat transfer. The NEAMS tools provide simulation capabilities covering a range of temporal and spatial scales and the Center connects stakeholders in industry with the expertise to use these tools to their fullest. This addresses a pressing need, facilitating advanced reactor development and commercialization.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy I-Corps Electron Beam (EB) Potential for International Trade of Logs

The purpose of this document is to capture the potential from Fermilab’s “Team EB Treement” at the DOE Energy I-Corps program. Energy I-Corps, a key initiative of the Office of Technology Transitions, pairs teams of researchers with industry mentors for an intensive two-month training where the researchers define technology value propositions, conduct customer discovery interviews, and develop viable market pathways for their technologies. The team was composed prior to the Energy I-Corp program; however, the program was a catalyst for education and information exchange between the team members and stakeholders, customers, and regulators. These exchanges were captured in the evolution of a Business Model Canvas (BMC) and a Value Proposition (VP). The BMC and VP underwent numerous transformations based on feedback from the conversations between members of the team and forest or agriculture industry stakeholders and the program instructors.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surrogate modeling for efficiently, accurately and conservatively estimating measures of risk

We present a surrogate modeling framework for conservatively estimating measures of risk from limited realizations of an expensive physical experiment or computational simulation. Risk measures combine objective probabilities with the subjective values of a decision maker to quantify anticipated outcomes. Given a set of samples, we construct a surrogate model that produces estimates of risk measures that are always greater than their empirical approximations obtained from the training data. These surrogate models limit over-confidence in reliability and safety assessments and produce estimates of risk measures that converge much faster to the true value than purely sample-based estimates. We first detail the construction of conservative surrogate models that can be tailored to a stakeholder’s risk preferences and then present an approach, based on stochastic orders, for constructing surrogate models that are conservative with respect to families of risk measures. Our surrogate models include biases that permit them to conservatively estimate the target risk measures. We provide theoretical results that show that these biases decay at the same rate as the L 2 error in the surrogate model. Numerical demonstrations confirm that risk-adapted surrogate models do indeed overestimate the target risk measures while converging at the expected rate.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

1.4.2.403 - Water Power STEM Workforce Development (Hydro)

As interest in renewable energy grows, water power technologies will continue to play a robust and growing role. However, the industry needs new talent to spur innovation and to support industry needs. With one-quarter of the domestic hydropower workforce retiring in the coming decade, the need to fill the workforce pipeline has never been more critical. The lack of new hydropower development has limited the number of educational programs focused on this sector at all levels of education. NREL has a long track record of working to address educational needs across the renewable energy spectrum. Leveraging this track record, this project brought the Hydropower STEM Portal to water power stakeholders fueled by information from a multitude of sectors, our partnership with the Hydropower Foundation, NEED, and others. The team has also sought to integrate activities with the Bonneville Environmental Foundation, to increase dissemination opportunities and interfaces. The purpose of the portal is to be a one-stop shop to information geared at inspiring the next-generation water power professional. NREL also leverages experience in engaging with stakeholders to understand barriers to technology adoption to identify issues and drivers, provide feedback to the R&D community, work to clarify misperceptions, and inform decisions to facilitate market adoption. The outcome of this work is a more successful and diverse water power industry based on a motivated and better-trained workforce.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

CORE-CM in The Greater Green River and Wind River Basins: Transforming and Advancing a National Coal Asset (Final Report)

The following document summarizes project results from “CORE-CM in the Greater Green River and Wind River Basins: Transforming and Advancing a National Coal Asset”. This project is part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (“DOE”) National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (“NETL”) Carbon Ore, Rare Earth Elements, and Critical Minerals (CORE-CM) Initiative. This report concludes that the Greater Green River and Wind River Basins (GGRB-WRB) Area-of-Interest (AOI 9) is the ideal region for continued research and development in progressing the broader CORE-CM goals outlined by the DOE. Based upon the extensive analyses of technical, social, and community criteria, this report illustrates that the GGRB-WRB hosts numerous potential CORE-CM feedstocks (both coal- and non-coal based), diverse opportunities for utilizing existing industrial waste streams, ample infrastructure and industry to support new CORE-CM-focused technologies, and a highly motivated, well educated, and adaptable workforce to further develop the regional and national CORE-CM supply chain. Additionally, some potential solutions for technological gaps suggest that the GGRB-WRB's diverse resources can play a significant role in achieving the national goal of critical materials independence. With full community participation, meaningful involvement of regional Tribal Nations, and building upon the stakeholder engagement demonstrated here, the GGRB-WRB region presents a unique opportunity for advancing the CORE-CM Initiative. This project was designed to bring together coal-based communities and stakeholders from across the GGRB-WRB to advance new industries for CORE-CM resources. The University of Wyoming (UWyo) School of Energy Resources (SER) led a project team of experts from the Colorado Geological Survey (CGS), Colorado School of Mines (CSM), Los Alamos National Lab (LANL), and local community colleges. Input from basinal, regional, and national experts bolstered the coalition in order to advance the mission of DOE’s CORE-CM initiative and develop the domestic CORE-CM supply chain. Phase I of this project was designed to address the goal of developing and catalyzing economic growth, job creation, and technology innovation in the GGRB-WRB of Wyoming and Colorado, by increasing the supply of CORE-CM to manufacturers of non-fuel Carbon Based Products (CBP) and products reliant upon CM. The GGRB-WRB CORE-CM project worked toward providing benefit through several avenues of performance and research. • Develop a coalition team to achieve project objectives • Complete detailed assessments, including State-of-the-Art (SOTA) Data acquisition of potential CORE-CM materials across the AOI, and meaningfully contributes to DOE’s CORE-CM goals nationally. • Strategic planning for regional economic growth, job creation, and associated technology innovation around coal materials, including plans to maximize the development of potential CORE-CM resources and technology by creating regional public-private partnerships. • Define regional economic growth potential around existing strengths, energy infrastructure, business and industry, including planning for the leveraging of highly trained workforces, existing and novel coal technologies, and energy infrastructure in development of CORE-CM supply chains. • Develop a preliminary strategic plan for increasing the supply of CORE-CM materials to manufacturers of non-fuel Carbon Based Products (CBP) and products reliant upon CM, focusing on regional strengths that result in an emerging diversified CORE-CM economy. • Assemble a committed network of stakeholders and communities that learn about, accept, and grow new energy technologies within coal regions. Additionally, the project team significantly contributed to the CORE-CM Initiative’s national goals, through cross-regional scoping, collaborating with CORE-CM projects in other AOIs, and including parallel regional project experts. In addition to active inclusion and meaningful engagement and contribution to DOE-led working groups, the project team focused on engaging with regional communities including Tribal Nations, economic development groups, and regional government organizations. The project’s CORE-CM development and commercialization plan identified diverse CORECM feedstocks, potential routes towards integration with existing industries, methods for supply-chain development that leverage existing infrastructure and businesses considering the regional economy, identified entry barriers for incorporating traditional and new technologies in those supply chains, recognized opportunities for public-private partnerships to develop technology innovation centers, identified diverse workforces, and conducted stakeholder outreach and education to build a community of understanding on CORE-CM potential in the GGRB-WRB region. Detailed task descriptions can be found in each chapter.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

PV Performance Modeling and Stakeholder Engagement (Final Technical Report)

This core capability project’s objective is to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) performance models by improving their functionality, demonstrating, and quantifying their validity, and offering a wide range of stakeholder engagement opportunities. In FY22-24, we developed new and improved modeling algorithms and functions to represent PV performance more accurately in a variety of environments and conditions. The “Model parameter toolkit” was developed and includes functions to translate between different module temperature models, incidence angle modifier models, and single-diode models. A new modeling capability named “PV Atlas” was also developed leveraging Sandia’s High Performance Computing resources. This capability allows us to investigate several questions and provide climate-specific best practices and geographic data files; all these are hosted on an interactive website on Sandia’s GitHub and can be used for training, system optimization, or to provide best practices for uncertainty reduction. For model validation, we published high-quality PV performance, and weather data; these data are well documented, filtered, and processed for quality and include examples on how to run PV simulations. We also developed well documented, standardized methods for validating PV models and ran independent model validation and 2 blind modeling intercomparisons engaging with 49 organizations from 17 countries. We co-led and contributed to a growing, well documented and maintained suite of open-source functions for PV modeling (i.e., the pvlib-python) and we outreached to the PV modeling stakeholders via the PVPMC workshops and web resources. In addition, this project supported US representation and leadership for the International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 13; specifically, members of our team led and supported 3 subtasks on: 1) Best practices for the optimization of bifacial photovoltaic tracking, 2) Extreme weather events and their multiple impact on PV power plants: Risks, failure mechanisms and mitigation strategies, and 3) Best practice guidelines for the use of economic and technical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This project resulted in the publications of 14 peer reviewed journal papers, 37 conference presentations, 6 SAND reports, 5 public datasets and 6 new webpages on the PVPMC website. It supported the release of 13 pvlib-python versions where 28 enhancements were from this PV Performance Modeling project. We co-organized 5 PVPMC workshops in FY22-24 with the participation of 214 unique institutions and around 700 participants. The PVPMC website was redesigned, and its reliability was improved; it receives over 50,000 visitors/year from 202 unique countries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate Modeling For Efficiently Accurately and Conservatively Estimating Measures of Risk

We present a surrogate modeling framework for conservatively estimating measures of risk from limited realizations of an expensive physical experiment or computational simulation. We adopt a probabilistic description of risk that assigns probabilities to consequences associated with an event and use risk measures, which combine objective evidence with the subjective values of decision makers, to quantify anticipated outcomes. Given a set of samples, we construct a surrogate model that produces estimates of risk measures that are always greater than their empirical estimates obtained from the training data. These surrogate models not only limit over-confidence in reliability and safety assessments, but produce estimates of risk measures that converge much faster to the true value than purely sample-based estimates. We first detail the construction of conservative surrogate models that can be tailored to the specific risk preferences of the stakeholder and then present an approach, based upon stochastic orders, for constructing surrogate models that are conservative with respect to families of risk measures. The surrogate models introduce a bias that allows them to conservatively estimate the target risk measures. We provide theoretical results that show that this bias decays at the same rate as the L 2 error in the surrogate model. Our numerical examples confirm that risk-aware surrogate models do indeed over-estimate the target risk measures while converging at the expected rate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Zero-Emission Transit Bus Needs Assessment

The transition to zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) in public transit has gained traction due to significant federal investments from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This needs assessment, commissioned by the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation and conducted by researchers at the Idaho National Laboratory, explores the current state of electrification in transit agencies, identifying barriers to implementation, potential funding sources, and operational considerations necessary for a successful transition. The assessment involved qualitative interviews with representatives from 19 transit service providers across diverse geographic regions. Key findings highlight the challenges related to bus facilities and operations, which require careful planning for charging infrastructure and maintenance capabilities to accommodate battery electric buses (BEBs) and hydrogen fuel cell buses (HFCBs). Agencies reported operational hurdles due to the shorter range of BEBs compared to diesel buses, necessitating revised scheduling and routing strategies. Despite these challenges, many agencies expressed optimism about their capacity to adapt. Funding availability emerged as a critical factor influencing the transition to ZEVs. While agencies welcomed increased financial support, particularly from the Low or No Emission Grant Program (Lo-No), concerns about the sustainability of this funding and the ongoing operational costs were prevalent. The need for a comprehensive funding inventory was underscored to ensure transit agencies are aware of all available resources. Technological constraints were significant barriers to ZEV adoption. The limited range of BEBs was frequently cited as a concern, leading to operational challenges and reliability issues. Agencies reported difficulties in sourcing replacement parts, which exacerbated downtime and maintenance challenges. Workforce development and training were identified as pivotal for a successful transition. Many agencies rely heavily on manufacturers for technician training, highlighting the need for scalable training programs that equip staff with the necessary skills to maintain electric powertrains effectively. This assessment offers actionable recommendations for the Joint Office, including enhancing outreach to transit agencies, developing resources for effective utility partnerships, and facilitating comprehensive training programs. Establishing a zero-emission bus evaluation program to track performance metrics such as cost, range, and reliability could provide valuable insights for transit agencies. The needs assessment provides a detailed examination of the challenges and opportunities facing transit agencies in their transition to zero-emissions bus fleets. By addressing these issues through targeted support, stakeholders can collaboratively work towards a cleaner, more sustainable public transportation system that benefits all communities.

33 - ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗