Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “state estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

MITgcm-AD v2: Open source tangent linear and adjoint modeling framework for the oceans and atmosphere enabled by the Automatic Differentiation tool Tapenade

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) is widely used by the climate science community to simulate planetary atmosphere and ocean circulations. A defining feature of the MITgcm is that it has been developed to be compatible with an algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool, TAF, enabling the generation of tangent-linear and adjoint models. These provide gradient information which enables dynamics-based sensitivity and attribution studies, state and parameter estimation, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Importantly, gradient information is essential for computing comprehensive sensitivities and performing efficient large-scale data assimilation, ensuring that observations collected from satellites and in-situ measuring instruments can be effectively used to optimize a large uncertain control space. As a result, the MITgcm forms the dynamical core of a key data assimilation product employed by the physical oceanography research community: Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) state estimate. Although MITgcm and ECCO are used extensively within the research community, the AD tool TAF is proprietary and hence inaccessible to a large proportion of these users. The new version 2 (MITgcm-AD v2) framework introduced here is based on the source-to-source AD tool Tapenade, which has recently been open-sourced. Another feature of Tapenade is that it stores required variables by default (instead of recomputing them) which simplifies the implementation of efficient, AD-compatible code. The framework has been integrated with the MITgcm model’s main branch and is now freely available.

Adjoints↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating coccidioidomycosis endemicity while accounting for imperfect detection using spatio - temporal occupancy modeling

Coccidioidomycosis, or Valley fever, is an infectious disease caused by inhaling Coccidioides fungal spores. Incidence has risen in recent years, and it is believed the endemic region for Coccidioides is expanding in response to climate change. While Valley fever case data can help us understand trends in disease risk, using case data as a proxy for Coccidioides endemicity is not ideal because case data suffers from imperfect detection, including false positives (e.g., travel-related cases reported outside of endemic area) and false negatives (e.g., misdiagnosis or underreporting). Here we proposed a Bayesian, spatio-temporal occupancy model to relate monthly, county-level presence/absence data on Valley fever cases to latent endemicity of Coccidioides, accounting for imperfect detection. We used our model to estimate endemicity in the western United States. We estimated high probability of endemicity in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico, but also in regions without mandated reporting, including western Texas, eastern Colorado, and southeastern Washington. We also quantified spatio-temporal variability in detectability of Valley fever, given an area is endemic to Coccidioides. We estimated an inverse relationship between lagged 3- and 9-month precipitation and case detection, and a positive association with agriculture. This work can help inform public health surveillance needs and identify areas that would benefit from mandatory case reporting.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extended State Observer-Based Robust Model Predictive Velocity Control for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor

This article proposes an extended state observer based robust model predictive velocity control to decrease system prediction error under parameter uncertainties for permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM). We develop a new PMSM model that consists of velocity and acceleration to lump the system information and an external disturbance into a disturbance. The extended state observer (ESO) is designed to estimate the velocity, acceleration, and disturbance. By estimating the state variables and disturbance using the ESO, the model predictive control (MPC) finds the optimal control input by predicting future system behavior. Additionally, the direct current controller is designed so that the direct current converges to zero. Because the proposed method is not designed based on the cascade structure from the viewpoint of velocity control, the optimization control for the velocity and currents can be defined. Thus, the proposed method is robust against external disturbances and parameter uncertainties owing to feedback linearization, state feedback, and ESO-based MPC using the acceleration PMSM model. The proposed control algorithm was experimentally verified and it showed improved velocity tracking performance compared with ESO-based MPC using the conventional PMSM model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Direct estimation of the density of states for fermionic systems

Simulating time evolution is one of the most natural applications of quantum computers and is thus one of the most promising prospects for achieving practical quantum advantage. Here, we develop quantum algorithms to extract thermodynamic properties by estimating the density of states (DOS), which is a central object in quantum statistical mechanics. We introduce several key innovations that significantly improve the practicality and extend the generality of previous techniques. First, our approach allows one to estimate the DOS only for a specific subspace of the full Hilbert space. This is crucial for fermionic systems, since both canonical and grand canonical ensemble thermal equilibrium properties depend on subspaces of fixed number. Second, in our approach, by time evolving very simple, random initial states, such as randomly chosen computational basis states, we can exactly recover the DOS on average. Third, due to circuit-depth limitations, we only reconstruct the DOS up to a convolution with a Gaussian window—thus all imperfections that shift the energy levels by less than the width of the convolution window will not significantly affect the estimated DOS. For these reasons, we find the approach is a promising candidate for early quantum advantage as even short-time, noisy dynamics can yield a semiquantitative reconstruction of the DOS (convolution with a broad Gaussian window), while early fault-tolerant devices will likely enable higher-resolution DOS reconstruction through longer time evolutions. We demonstrate the practicality of our approach in representative Fermi-Hubbard and spin models and indeed find that our approach is highly robust against algorithmic errors in the time evolution and against gate noise. We further demonstrate that our approach is compatible with noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computing NISQ-friendly variational techniques, introducing and leveraging a technique for variational time evolution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature and Water Levels Collectively Regulate Methane Emissions From Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands

Abstract Wetlands are the largest and most climate‐sensitive natural sources of methane. Accurately estimating wetland methane emissions involves reconciling inversion (“top‐down”) and process‐based (“bottom‐up”) models within the global methane budget. However, estimates from these two model types are inherently interdependent and often reveal substantial discrepancies. To enhance the reliability of both approaches, we need a comprehensive understanding of wetland methane emissions and an independent high‐resolution long‐term flux data set. Here, we employed a data‐driven random forest approach to identify key variables influencing methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the Southeastern United States. The model‐estimated monthly mean methane fluxes fit well with measured methane fluxes ( R 2 = 0.67) at four representative FLUXNET‐CH4 wetland sites across the region. Variable importance analysis highlighted the sensitivity of subtropical freshwater wetland methane emissions to variations in both temperature and water levels. High temperatures facilitate methanogenesis by enhancing microbial activities, while elevated water levels maintain anaerobic conditions necessary for methane production. Notably, the response of methane emissions to water level fluctuations is contingent on temperature conditions, and vice versa. Moreover, we constructed the first high‐spatial‐resolution (∼1 km × 1 km) and long‐term (1982–2010) gridded regional wetland methane flux product for the Southeastern United States, estimating annual methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the region at 4.93 ± 0.11 Tg CH 4 yr −1 for 1982–2010. This new benchmark product holds promise for validating and parameterizing uncertain wetland methane emission processes in bottom‐up models and provides improved prior information for top‐down models.

He, Keqi [Earth and Climate Sciences Nicholas Scho↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Eigenenergies from Quantum Dynamics: A Unified Noise-Resilient Measurement-Driven Approach

Ground state energy estimation in physical, chemical, and materials sciences is one of the most promising applications of quantum computing. In this work, we introduce a new hybrid approach that finds the eigenenergies by collecting real-time measurements and post-processing them using the machinery of dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). From the perspective of quantum dynamics, we establish that our approach can be formally understood as a stable variational method on the function space of observables available from a quantum many-body system. We also provide strong theoretical and numerical evidence that our method converges rapidly even in the presence of a large degree of perturbative noise, and show that the method bears an isomorphism to robust matrix factorization methods developed independently across various scientific communities. Our numerical benchmarks on spin and molecular systems demonstrate an accelerated convergence and a favorable resource reduction over state-of-the-art algorithms. The DMD-centric strategy can systematically mitigate noise and stands out as a leading hybrid quantum-classical eigensolver.

Shen, Yizhi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble‐Based Spatially Distributed CLM5 Hydrological Parameter Estimation for the Continental United States

Abstract One of the major challenges in large‐domain hydrological modeling efforts lies in the estimation of spatially distributed hydrological parameters while simultaneously accounting for their associated uncertainties. Addressing this challenge is particularly difficult in ungauged locations. With growing societal demands for large‐scale streamflow projections to inform water resource management and long‐term planning, evaluating and constraining hydrological parameter uncertainty is increasingly vital. This study introduces a hybrid regionalization approach to enhance hydrological predictions of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) across the Continental United States (CONUS), with a total of 50,629 1/8° grid cells. This hybrid method combines the strengths of two existing techniques: parameter regionalization and streamflow signature regionalization. It identifies ensemble behavioral parameters for each 1/8° grid cell across the CONUS domain, tailored to three distinct streamflow signatures focused on low flows, high flows, and annual water balance. Evaluating this hybrid method for 464 CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large‐sample Studies) basins demonstrates a significant improvement in CLM5 hydrological predictions, even in challenging arid regions. In CONUS applications, the derived spatially distributed parameter sets capture both spatial continuity and variation of parameters, highlighting their heterogeneous nature within specific regions. Overall, this hybrid regionalization approach offers a promising solution to the complex task of improving hydrological modeling over large domains for important hydrological applications.

CLM5↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simplified projection on total spin zero for state preparation on quantum computers

Here, we introduce a simple algorithm for projecting on J = 0 states of a many-body system by performing a series of rotations to remove states with angular momentum projections greater than zero. Existing methods rely on unitary evolution with the two-body operator J 2 , which when expressed in the computational basis contains many complicated Pauli strings requiring Trotterization and leading to very deep quantum circuits. Our approach performs the necessary projections using the one-body operators J x and J z . By leveraging the method of Cartan decomposition, the unitary transformations that perform the projection can be parametrized as a product of a small number of two-qubit rotations, with angles determined by an efficient classical optimization. Given the reduced complexity in terms of gates, this approach can be used to prepare approximate ground states of even-even nuclei by projecting onto the J = 0 component of deformed Hartree-Fock states. We estimate the resource requirements in terms of the universal gate set {H,S, CNOT ,T} and briefly discuss a variant of the algorithm that projects onto J = 1/2 states of a system with an odd number of fermions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kinematically enhanced interpolating operators for boosted hadrons

We propose to use interpolating operators for lattice quantum chromodynamics calculations of highly boosted pions and nucleons with kinematically enhanced ground-state overlap factors at large momentum. Because this kinematic enhancement applies to the signal but not the variance of the correlation function, these interpolating operators can achieve better signal-to-noise ratios at large momentum. We perform proof-of-principle calculations with boosted pions and nucleons using close-to-physical and larger quark masses to explore the utility of our proposal. Results for effective energies and matrix elements, as well as Lanczos ground-state energy estimators, are consistent with theoretical expectations for signal-to-noise improvement at large momenta.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Assessment of Technical Hydropower Potential at Non-Powered Dams in the United States

Historically, dams have been constructed for a variety of purposes, such as providing a more secure and reliable water supply, mitigating impacts from variations in river flow, allowing continuous navigability, and harnessing mechanical power. A relatively small portion of dams have been designed to store or regulate flows for the purpose of generating electricity (roughly 3% of nationally inventoried dams in the US and 17% of the dams included in the World Register of Dams). The remaining population of existing non-powered dams (NPDs) presents both an opportunity to generate renewable energy and a need to modernize aging infrastructure. This report describes an assessment of more than 2,600 NPDs in the US that have a collective potential of nearly 4 GW in new power capacity. Previous national-scale assessments were aimed at evaluating the theoretical maximum power potential at existing dams in the United States. These estimates were based on the best available information at the time for water availability, hydraulic head, and representative regional capacity factors. This study revisits a subset of 3,299 dams identified in the most recent theoretical resource assessment and uses more detailed and updated hydrologic data to produce estimates of technical potential. These improvements in data enable estimates that more realistically reflect what is physically possible given simple assumptions about the existing structure and constraints on flow and head (Figure 1).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lanczos algorithm for lattice QCD matrix elements

Recent work [M. L. Wagman, Lanczos, the transfer matrix, and the signal-to-noise problem, .] found that an analysis formalism based on the Lanczos algorithm allows energy levels to be extracted from Euclidean correlation functions with faster ground-state convergence than effective masses, convergent estimators for multiple states from a single correlator, and two-sided error bounds. After filtering out spurious eigenvalues and using outlier-robust estimators within a nested bootstrap framework, Lanczos estimators behave more like multistate fit results than effective masses—but without involving statistical fitting. We extend this formalism to the determination of matrix elements from three-point correlation functions and provide a physical picture of “spurious-state filtering” involving restriction to a Hermitian subspace. We demonstrate similar advantages for matrix elements as for spectroscopy through example applications to noiseless mock-data and (bare) forward matrix elements of the strange scalar current between both ground and excited states with the quantum numbers of the nucleon.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Studying QED 3 with radial quantization on the lattice: Free limit

To investigate the three-dimensional quantum electrodynamics in the radial quantization on the lattice, the lattice action is constructed and the free limit is studied on 𝑆 2 × ℝ. With the overlap fermion, it is numerically verified that the important symmetries of the theory can be realized on the lattice. The analytic correlators are derived and compared to the lattice results, which agree including the overall normalization. The 𝑂⁡(𝑎 2 ) scaling is confirmed toward the analytic value in the continuum limit, and the number of reproduced excited states is estimated heuristically for the first few refinement levels. Our study helps us identify the features of the theory that we can study on the icosahedral lattice without fine-tuning.

Boyle, Peter A. [Brookhaven National Laboratory (B↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nearly optimal state preparation for quantum simulations of lattice gauge theories

Here, we present several improvements to the recently developed ground-state preparation algorithm based on the quantum eigenvalue transformation for unitary matrices (QETU), apply this algorithm to a lattice formulation of U(1) gauge theory in (2+1) dimensions, as well as propose an alternative application of QETU, a highly efficient preparation of Gaussian distributions. The QETU technique was originally proposed as an algorithm for nearly optimal ground-state preparation and ground-state energy estimation on early fault-tolerant devices. It uses the time-evolution input model, which can potentially overcome the large overall prefactor in the asymptotic gate cost arising in similar algorithms based on the Hamiltonian input model. We present modifications to the original QETU algorithm that significantly reduce the cost for the cases of both exact and Trotterized implementation of the time evolution circuit. We use QETU to prepare the ground state of a U(1) lattice gauge theory in two spatial dimensions, explore the dependence of computational resources on the desired precision and system parameters, and discuss the applicability of our results to general lattice gauge theories. We also demonstrate how the QETU technique can be utilized for preparing Gaussian distributions and wave packets in a way which outperforms existing algorithms for as little as n q ≳ 2–5 qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate change-resilient snowpack estimation in the Western United States

Abstract In the 21st century, warmer temperatures and changing atmospheric circulation will likely produce unprecedented changes in Western United States snowfall 1–3 , with impacts on the timing, amount, and spatial patterns of snowpack 4–7 . The ~900 snow pillow stations are indispensable to water resource management by measuring snow-water equivalent (SWE) 8,9 in strategic but fixed locations 10,11 . However, this network may not be impacted by climate change in the same way as the surrounding area 12 and thus fail to accurately represent unmeasured locations; climate change thereby threatens our ability to measure the effects of climate change on snow. In this work, we show that maintaining the current peak SWE estimation skill is nonetheless possible. We find that explicitly including spatial correlations—either from gridded observations or learned by the model—improves skill at predicting distributed snowpack from sparse observations by 184%. Existing artificial intelligence methods can be useful tools to harness the many available sources of snowpack information to estimate snowpack in a nonstationary climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Compliance Inspection Data to Understand Emissions from Marginal Conventional Oil & Gas Wells in New York State

It is estimated that over half (~66%) of active oil and gas wells are marginally productive, producing less than 15 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This presentation showcases an evaluation of New York State compliance inspection reports and discusses the current capabilities of machine learning to identify high-risk MCWs that could be targeted during methane emission reduction efforts and future model deployments. Findings are valuable to the New York Department of Environmental Conservation and other state oil and gas regulatory agencies seeking to prioritize the spending of Methane Emission Reduction Program funds to plug marginal conventional wells with emissions.

compliance inspection data↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

This dataset provides estimated hourly electricity demand for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016-2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components: (1) Weighted averages of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. (2) Weighted averages of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector Annual county-level retail sales are estimated by aggregating utility-reported sales to the state level and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of state population. Annual county-level direct use is calculated by aggregating power plant-reported direct use values. Annual county-level on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity is estimated by aggregating utility-reported net metering data to determine the amount of DPV-generated electricity sold back to the grid for each state, subtracting those values from modeled state-level DPV generation estimates, and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of statewide modeled DPV generation. The open-source Python code used to develop this dataset is available at "Historical Load Data Repository" link below.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preserving nonlinear constraints in variational flow filtering data assimilation

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems of interest obey nonlinear physical constraints, and the corresponding dynamics is confined to a certain sub-manifold of the state space. Standard data assimilation techniques applied to such systems yield posterior states lying outside the manifold, violating the physical constraints. This work focuses on particle flow filters which use stochastic differential equations to evolve state samples from a prior distribution to samples from an observation-informed posterior distribution. The variational Fokker-Planck (VFP)—a generic particle flow filtering framework—is extended to incorporate non-linear, equality state constraints in the analysis. To this end, two algorithmic approaches that modify the VFP stochastic differential equation are discussed: (i) VFPSTAB, to inexactly preserve constraints with the addition of a stabilizing drift term, and (ii) VFPDAE, to exactly preserve constraints by treating the VFP dynamics as a stochastic differential-algebraic equation (SDAE). Additionally, an implicit-explicit time integrator is developed to evolve the VFPDAE dynamics. The strength of the proposed approach for constraint preservation in data assimilation is demonstrated on three test problems: the double pendulum, Korteweg-de-Vries, and the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗