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NASA NTRS1989

A heat-pipe mechanism for volcanism and tectonics on Venus

A heat-pipe mechanism is proposed for the transport of heat through the lithosphere of Venus. This mechanism allows the crust and lithosphere on Venus to be greater than 150 km thick. A thick basaltic crust on Venus is expected to transform eclogite at a depth of 60 to 80 km; the dense eclogite would contribute to lithospheric delamination that returns the crust to the interior of the planet completing the heat-pipe cycle. Topography and the associated gravity anomalies can be explained by Airy compensation of the thick crust. The principal observation that is contrary to this hypothesis is the mean age of the surface that is inferred from crater statistics; the minimum mean age is about 130 Myr and this implies an upper limit of 2 cubic kilometers per year for the surface volcanic flux. If the heat-pipe mechanism was applicable on the earth in the Archean it would provide the thick lithosphere implied by isotopic data from diamonds.

Turcotte, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Surface Ages and Resurfacing Rates of the Polar Layered Deposits on Mars

The martian polar layered deposits (PLD) are probably the best source of information about the recent climate history of Mars, but their origin and the mechanisms of accumulation are still a mystery. The polar layers are sedimentary deposits that most planetary scientists believe are composed of water ice and varying amounts of wind-blown dust, but their composition is poorly constrained. Interpretation of the observed polar stratigraphy in terms of global climate changes is complicated by the significant difference in surface ages between the north and south PLD inferred from crater statistics. While no craters have been found in the north PLD, the surface of the south PLD appears to have been stable for many of the orbital/axial cycles that are thought to have induced global climate changes on Mars. Using medium-resolution Viking imagery, Plaut et al. found at least 15 impact craters in the southern layered deposits and concluded that their surface is 120 +/- 40 million years old. In contrast, Cutts et al. found no fresh impact craters larger than about 300 meters in summertime images of the north polar layered deposits. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Herkenhoff, K. E.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Large Grooves in the South Polar Layered Deposits: Insights from Spacecraft Data and Terrestrial Analogs

The Martian polar layered deposits (PLD) are probably the best source of information about the recent climate history of Mars, but their origin and the mechanisms of accumulation are still a mystery. The polar layers are sedimentary deposits that most planetary scientists believe are composed of water ice and varying amounts of wind-blown dust, although their composition is poorly constrained. Interpretation of the observed polar stratigraphy in terms of global climate changes is complicated by the significant difference in surface ages between the north and south PLD inferred from crater statistics. The study reported here was undertaken as part of the landing site selection effort for the Mars Polar Lander (MPL) and Deep Space 2 (DS2) missions that made use of all available data. We used Mariner 9, Viking, and Mars Global Surveyor images of the south PLD in the area accessible to MPL and DS2 to evaluate the topography and morphology of grooves, terraced layers, and other features. Here we report on results from grooves that appear to have been carved by strong winds. Because these features are found throughout the interior of the PLD, where MPL and DS2 were targeted to land, their topographic characteristics were judged as important input for landing site safety assessment. The characteristics of the grooves also provide constraints and insights into aeolian processes in the polar regions and the effects these have on PLD ablation. Our results indicate that these grooves do not represent landing hazards at the scale of the images (approx. 80 m/pixel). Their topography and shape do not seem correlated with south PLD layering. No Earth analog of suitable scale exists, although the grooves bear some resemblance to smaller terrestrial deflation hollows found in soft sediment and ice. Additional information is contained in original extended abstract.

Bridges, N. T.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Software for Statistical Analysis of Weibull Distributions with Application to Gear Fatigue Data: User Manual with Verification

The Weibull distribution has been widely adopted for the statistical description and inference of fatigue data. This document provides user instructions, examples, and verification for software to analyze gear fatigue test data. The software was developed presuming the data are adequately modeled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The calculations are based on likelihood methods, and the approach taken is valid for data that include type 1 censoring. The software was verified by reproducing results published by others.

Krantz, Timothy L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Software for Statistical Analysis of Weibull Distributions with Application to Gear Fatigue Data: User Manual with Verification

The Weibull distribution has been widely adopted for the statistical description and inference of fatigue data. This document provides user instructions, examples, and verification for software to analyze gear fatigue test data. The software was developed presuming the data are adequately modeled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The calculations are based on likelihood methods, and the approach taken is valid for data that include type I censoring. The software was verified by reproducing results published by others.

Kranz, Timothy L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Survey of Logic Formalisms to Support Mishap Analysis

Mishap investigations provide important information about adverse events and near miss incidents. They are intended to help avoid any recurrence of previous failures. Over time, they can also yield statistical information about incident frequencies that helps to detect patterns of failure and can validate risk assessments. However, the increasing complexity of many safety critical systems is posing new challenges for mishap analysis. Similarly, the recognition that many failures have complex, systemic causes has helped to widen the scope of many mishap investigations. These two factors have combined to pose new challenges for the analysis of adverse events. A new generation of formal and semi-formal techniques have been proposed to help investigators address these problems. We introduce the term mishap logics to collectively describe these notations that might be applied to support the analysis of mishaps. The proponents of these notations have argued that they can be used to formally prove that certain events created the necessary and sufficient causes for a mishap to occur. These proofs can be used to reduce the bias that is often perceived to effect the interpretation of adverse events. Others have argued that one cannot use logic formalisms to prove causes in the same way that one might prove propositions or theorems. Such mechanisms cannot accurately capture the wealth of inductive, deductive and statistical forms of inference that investigators must use in their analysis of adverse events. This paper provides an overview of these mishap logics. It also identifies several additional classes of logic that might also be used to support mishap analysis.

Johnson, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Strengths and Weaknesses of Logic Formalisms to Support Mishap Analysis

The increasing complexity of many safety critical systems poses new problems for mishap analysis. Techniques developed in the sixties and seventies cannot easily scale-up to analyze incidents involving tightly integrated software and hardware components. Similarly, the realization that many failures have systemic causes has widened the scope of many mishap investigations. Organizations, including NASA and the NTSB, have responded by starting research and training initiatives to ensure that their personnel are well equipped to meet these challenges. One strand of research has identified a range of mathematically based techniques that can be used to reason about the causes of complex, adverse events. The proponents of these techniques have argued that they can be used to formally prove that certain events created the necessary and sufficient causes for a mishap to occur. Mathematical proofs can reduce the bias that is often perceived to effect the interpretation of adverse events. Others have opposed the introduction of these techniques by identifying social and political aspects to incident investigation that cannot easily be reconciled with a logic-based approach. Traditional theorem proving mechanisms cannot accurately capture the wealth of inductive, deductive and statistical forms of inference that investigators routinely use in their analysis of adverse events. This paper summarizes some of the benefits that logics provide, describes their weaknesses, and proposes a number of directions for future research.

Johnson, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: Issues and perspectives

The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd,ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions which also comprises rapid adjustments. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd,ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large scale (hundreds of kilometres) ΔNd,ant remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and vertical wind and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of 10s of metres at which only localized observations are available and at which no approach exists yet to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are three key uncertainties in determining ΔNd,ant, namely the quantification (i) of the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (CCN) at or above cloud base –, (ii) of Nd, as well as (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data. A fourth uncertainty, the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, is also not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: In terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, the non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, the impossibility to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilizing colocated polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high spectral resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximize vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity, and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd – to – CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

Twomey effect↗

NASA NTRS2002

Incorporating Biological Knowledge into Evaluation of Casual Regulatory Hypothesis

Biological data can be scarce and costly to obtain. The small number of samples available typically limits statistical power and makes reliable inference of causal relations extremely difficult. However, we argue that statistical power can be increased substantially by incorporating prior knowledge and data from diverse sources. We present a Bayesian framework that combines information from different sources and we show empirically that this lets one make correct causal inferences with small sample sizes that otherwise would be impossible.

Chrisman, Lonnie↗

NASA NTRS2015

Turbulent Concentration of mm-Size Particles in the Protoplanetary Nebula: Scale-Dependent Cascades

The initial accretion of primitive bodies (here, asteroids in particular) from freely-floating nebula particles remains problematic. Traditional growth-by-sticking models encounter a formidable "meter-size barrier" (or even a mm-to-cm-size barrier) in turbulent nebulae, making the preconditions for so-called "streaming instabilities" difficult to achieve even for so-called "lucky" particles. Even if growth by sticking could somehow breach the meter size barrier, turbulent nebulae present further obstacles through the 1-10km size range. On the other hand, nonturbulent nebulae form large asteroids too quickly to explain long spreads in formation times, or the dearth of melted asteroids. Theoretical understanding of nebula turbulence is itself in flux; recent models of MRI (magnetically-driven) turbulence favor low-or- no-turbulence environments, but purely hydrodynamic turbulence is making a comeback, with two recently discovered mechanisms generating robust turbulence which do not rely on magnetic fields at all. An important clue regarding planetesimal formation is an apparent 100km diameter peak in the pre-depletion, pre-erosion mass distribution of asteroids; scenarios leading directly from independent nebula particulates to large objects of this size, which avoid the problematic m-km size range, could be called "leapfrog" scenarios. The leapfrog scenario we have studied in detail involves formation of dense clumps of aerodynamically selected, typically mm-size particles in turbulence, which can under certain conditions shrink inexorably on 100-1000 orbit timescales and form 10-100km diameter sandpile planetesimals. There is evidence that at least the ordinary chondrite parent bodies were initially composed entirely of a homogeneous mix of such particles. Thus, while they are arcane, turbulent concentration models acting directly on chondrule size particles are worthy of deeper study. The typical sizes of planetesimals and the rate of their formation can be estimated using a statistical model with properties inferred from large numerical simulations of turbulence. Nebula turbulence is described by its Reynolds number Re = (L/eta)(exp 4/3), where L = H alpha(exp 1/2) is the largest eddy scale, H is the nebula gas vertical scale height, alpha the turbulent viscosity parameter, and eta is the Kolmogorov or smallest scale in turbulence (typically about 1km), with eddy turnover time t(sub eta). In the nebula, Re is far larger than any numerical simulation can handle, so some physical arguments are needed to extend the results of numerical simulations to nebula conditions. In this paper, we report new physics to be incorporated into our statistical models.

mm-size particles↗

NASA NTRS1999

Global Warming Estimation from MSU

In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.

Prabhakara, C.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Data processing techniques used with MST radars: A review

The data processing methods used in high power radar probing of the middle atmosphere are examined. The radar acts as a spatial filter on the small scale refractivity fluctuations in the medium. The characteristics of the received signals are related to the statistical properties of these fluctuations. A functional outline of the components of a radar system is given. Most computation intensive tasks are carried out by the processor. The processor computes a statistical function of the received signals, simultaneously for a large number of ranges. The slow fading of atmospheric signals is used to reduce the data input rate to the processor by coherent integration. The inherent range resolution of the radar experiments can be improved significant with the use of pseudonoise phase codes to modulate the transmitted pulses and a corresponding decoding operation on the received signals. Commutability of the decoding and coherent integration operations is used to obtain a significant reduction in computations. The limitations of the processors are outlined. At the next level of data reduction, the measured function is parameterized by a few spectral moments that can be related to physical processes in the medium. The problems encountered in estimating the spectral moments in the presence of strong ground clutter, external interference, and noise are discussed. The graphical and statistical analysis of the inferred parameters are outlined. The requirements for special purpose processors for MST radars are discussed.

Rastogi, P. K.↗

NASA NTRS2007

OTD Observations of Continental US Ground and Cloud Flashes

Lightning optical flash parameters (e.g., radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events) derived from almost five years of Optical Transient Detector (OTD) data are analyzed. Hundreds of thousands of OTD flashes occurring over the continental US are categorized according to flash type (ground or cloud flash) using US National Lightning Detection Network TM (NLDN) data. The statistics of the optical characteristics of the ground and cloud flashes are inter-compared on an overall basis, and as a function of ground flash polarity. A standard two-distribution hypothesis test is used to inter-compare the population means of a given lightning parameter for the two flash types. Given the differences in the statistics of the optical characteristics, it is suggested that statistical analyses (e.g., Bayesian Inference) of the space-based optical measurements might make it possible to successfully discriminate ground and cloud flashes a reasonable percentage of the time.

Koshak, William↗

NASA NTRS2014

Turbulent Concentration of MM-Size Particles in the Protoplanetary Nebula: Scaled-Dependent Multiplier Functions

The initial accretion of primitive bodies (asteroids and TNOs) from freely-floating nebula particles remains problematic. Here we focus on the asteroids where constituent particle (read "chondrule") sizes are observationally known; similar arguments will hold for TNOs, but the constituent particles in those regions will be smaller, or will be fluffy aggregates, and are unobserved. Traditional growth-bysticking models encounter a formidable "meter-size barrier" [1] (or even a mm-cm-size barrier [2]) in turbulent nebulae, while nonturbulent nebulae form large asteroids too quickly to explain long spreads in formation times, or the dearth of melted asteroids [3]. Even if growth by sticking could somehow breach the meter size barrier, other obstacles are encountered through the 1-10km size range [4]. Another clue regarding planetesimal formation is an apparent 100km diameter peak in the pre-depletion, pre-erosion mass distribution of asteroids [5]; scenarios leading directly from independent nebula particulates to this size, which avoid the problematic m-km size range, could be called "leapfrog" scenarios [6-8]. The leapfrog scenario we have studied in detail involves formation of dense clumps of aerodynamically selected, typically mm-size particles in turbulence, which can under certain conditions shrink inexorably on 100-1000 orbit timescales and form 10-100km diameter sandpile planetesimals. The typical sizes of planetesimals and the rate of their formation [7,8] are determined by a statistical model with properties inferred from large numerical simulations of turbulence [9]. Nebula turbulence can be described by its Reynolds number Re = L/eta sup(4/3), where L = ETA alpha sup (1/2) the largest eddy scale, H is the nebula gas vertical scale height, and α the nebula turbulent viscosity parameter, and η is the Kolmogorov or smallest scale in turbulence (typically about 1km), with eddy turnover time tη. In the nebula, Re is far larger than any numerical simulation can handle, so some physical model is needed to extend the results of numerical simulations to nebula conditions.

protoplanetary nebula↗

NASA NTRS1979

Determination of the ground albedo and the index of absorption of atmospheric particulates by remote sensing. I - Theory

A statistical technique is developed for inferring the optimum values of the ground albedo and the effective imaginary term of the complex refractive index of atmospheric particulates. The procedure compares measurements of the ratio of the hemispheric diffuse to directly transmitted solar flux density at the earth's surface with radiative transfer computations of the same as suggested by Herman et al. (1975). A detailed study is presented which shows the extent to which the ratio of diffuse to direct solar radiation is sensitive to many of the radiative transfer parameters. Results indicate that the optical depth and size distribution of atmospheric aerosol particles are the two parameters which uniquely specify the radiation field to the point where ground albedo and index of absorption can be inferred. Varying the real part of the complex refractive index of atmospheric particulates as well as their vertical distribution is found to have a negligible effect on the diffuse-direct ratio. The statistical procedure utilizes a semi-analytic gradient search method from least-squares theory and includes a detailed error analysis.

King, M. D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Probabilistic Analysis of Neural Networks

Neural networks are powerful tools for automated decision-making,seeing increased application in safety-critical domains, such as autonomous driving. Due to their black-box nature and large scale,reasoning about their behavior is challenging. Statistical analysis is often used to infer probabilistic properties of a network, such as its robustness to noise and inaccurate inputs. While scalable, statistical methods can only provide probabilistic guarantees on the quality of their results and may underestimate the impact of low probability inputs leading to undesired behavior of the network.We investigate here the use of symbolic analysis and constraint solution space quantification to precisely quantify probabilistic properties in neural networks. We demonstrate the potential of the proposed technique in a case study involving the analysis of ACAS-Xu, a collision avoidance system for unmanned aircraft control.

neural nets↗