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DOE OSTI2021

Developing and Testing a Novel Stochastic Ice Microphysics Parameterization for Cloud and Climate Models Using ARM Field Campaign Data (Final Progress Report)

The major goals of this project were: 1) to use field campaign measurements from DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program to characterize variability of important parameters describing properties of ice particles in the atmosphere; 2) based on this observational analysis, to develop a parameterization scheme for weather and climate models that stochastically varies these parameters, and implement the new scheme into a weather model called the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); 3) to use WRF coupled with the new stochastic scheme to simulate ARM field campaign thunderstorm cases and analyze how accounting for this parameter variability affects the model simulations. This work was performed jointly between the National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Oklahoma, and University of Utah. To accomplish these goals, we extended an approach previously developed to characterize the variability in the size distribution of ice particles to parameters that are explicitly represented in models (i.e., relationships between ice particle mass and size, and between particle fall velocity and size). Our project was, to our knowledge, the first to apply observationally-constrained estimates of this parameter variability describing mass-size and fall velocity-size in a modeling framework. Our results showed efficacy of the approach, evaluated using ARM observations. Similarly, to our knowledge, work in this project was the first to propose and evaluate in detail a stochastic approach for unresolved turbulent mixing in high-resolution model simulations against detailed, benchmark large eddy simulations and ARM observations. Results showed some promising behavior, particularly with increased mixing and dilution of air in thunderstorm cores with surrounding environmental air, bringing the stochastic simulations closer to the benchmark large eddy simulations; however, results were somewhat degraded using stochastic mixing compared to observations from the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign. This project also further refined and applied a modeling methodology called “piggybacking” that can robustly separate dynamical and thermodynamic impacts of model changes, and comparison studies of different models based on cases developed from ARM observations. Finally, this project directly supported three graduate students who completed their PhDs as well as a postdoctoral research fellow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Profiles of upcoming HPC Applications and their Impact on Reservation Strategies

With the expected convergence between HPC, BigData and AI, new applications with different profiles are coming to HPC infrastructures. Here, we aim at better understanding the features and needs of these applications in order to be able to run them efficiently on HPC platforms. The approach followed is bottom-up: we study thoroughly an emerging application from the neuroscience community (SLANT) to understand its behavior. Based on these observations, we derive a generic, yet simple, application model (namely, a linear sequence of stochastic jobs). We expect this model to be representative for a large set of upcoming applications that require the computational power of HPC clusters without fitting the typical behavior of large-scale traditional applications. In a second step, we show how one can manipulate this generic model in a scheduling framework. Specifically we consider the problem of making reservations (both time and memory) for an execution on an HPC platform. We derive solutions using the model of the first step of this work. We experimentally show the robustness of the model, even with very few data or with another application, to generate the model, and provide performance gains with regards to standard and more recent approaches used in the neuroscience community.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantification of microtubule stutters: dynamic instability behaviors that are strongly associated with catastrophe

Microtubules (MTs) are cytoskeletal fibers that undergo dynamic instability (DI), a remarkable process involving phases of growth and shortening separated by stochastic transitions called catastrophe and rescue. Dissecting DI mechanism(s) requires first characterizing and quantifying these dynamics, a subjective process that often ignores complexity in MT behavior. We present a Statistical Tool for Automated Dynamic Instability Analysis (STADIA) that identifies and quantifies not only growth and shortening, but also a category of intermediate behaviors that we term “stutters.” During stutters, the rate of MT length change tends to be smaller in magnitude than during typical growth or shortening phases. Quantifying stutters and other behaviors with STADIA demonstrates that stutters precede most catastrophes in our in vitro experiments and dimer-scale MT simulations, suggesting that stutters are mechanistically involved in catastrophes. Related to this idea, we show that the anticatastrophe factor CLASP2γ works by promoting the return of stuttering MTs to growth. STADIA enables more comprehensive and data-driven analysis of MT dynamics compared with previous methods. The treatment of stutters as distinct and quantifiable DI behaviors provides new opportunities for analyzing mechanisms of MT dynamics and their regulation by binding proteins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distribution System State Estimation With High Penetration of Demand Response Enabled Loads

Demand-side operations incentivize utility customers to take part in various grid services. A demand response enabled load (DREL) is a flexible grid asset that schedules electricity consumption in response to a time-of-use (TOU) energy price. Consequently, its energy profile differs from that of a conventional load that is insensitive to price. This difference may cause new challenges for distribution system state estimation (DSSE). It is well known that DSSE often needs to use pseudo-measurements based on historic load profiles to increase system observability. However, historic profiles of conventional loads are not representative of DREL behaviors. Additionally, the inaccuracy impacts DSSE results and other DSSE-dependent operations. In this paper, we propose an online pseudo-measurement generation approach for DSSE with DRELs. We formulate an optimization model to represent DRELs self-adjusting actions. Sampling-based stochastic optimization techniques are proposed to account for uncertainties in DRELs. A set of representative DREL behavior data corresponding to the samples are used to characterize DREL pseudo-measurements. Case studies with modified IEEE 123-bus test system verify the validity of the proposed work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimal mitigation and control over power system dynamics for stochastic grid resilience

Optimal mitigation planning for highly disruptive contingencies to a transmission-level power system requires optimization with dynamic power system constraints, due to the key role of dynamics in system stability to major perturbations. We formulate a generalized disjunctive program to determine optimal grid component hardening choices for protecting against major failures, with differential algebraic constraints representing system dynamics (specifically, differential equations representing generator and load behavior and algebraic equations representing instantaneous power balance over the transmission system). We optionally allow stochastic optimal pre-positioning across all considered failure scenarios, and optimal emergency control within each scenario. This novel formulation allows, for the first time, analyzing the resilience interdependencies of mitigation planning, preventive control, and emergency control. Using all three strategies in concert is particularly effective at maintaining robust power system operation under severe contingencies, as we demonstrate on the western system coordinating council 9-bus test system using synthetic multi-device outage scenarios.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2025

A bilevel multistage stochastic self-scheduling model with indivisibilities for trading in the continuous intraday electricity market

In this paper, we study the profit maximization problem of a virtual power plant trading in the continuous intraday electricity market. Our virtual power plant model is compatible with renewable, and thermal assets, covering a range of virtual power plants currently participating in energy markets. We model the trading problem as a bilevel multistage stochastic program. The upper level of the problem accounts for the profit maximization of the virtual power plant with explicit modeling of the technical constraints of the operational status of the thermal power plant including minimum start-up and shut-down times, ramp-up and ramp-down rates, and minimum generation level. The upper level also decides which continuous and indivisible (fill-or-kill) orders are submitted to the market. The lower-level problem accounts for the clearing of the continuous intraday market, i.e., matching of buy and sell orders. Because of the presence of fill-or-kill orders, the lower-level problem is mixed-integer, which prevents its direct conversion to a single-level problem using duality. In order to solve this challenging problem, we develop a convex-hull extended formulation for the lower-level problem, apply duality theory to obtain a single-level stochastic equivalent formulation, and employ McCormick envelopes to turn the problem into a multistage stochastic mixed-integer linear problem, which we solve using the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming algorithm. We conduct numerical experiments and analyze the optimal trading behavior of a virtual power plant trading in an ideal continuous market without arbitrage.

Bilevel multistage stochastic programming problem↗

DOE OSTI2020

Grain boundary structure search by using an evolutionary algorithm with effective mutation methods

Grain boundaries (GBs) accommodate the misorientation between adjacent grains in a polycrystalline material. GBs are geometrically described by the macroscopic and microscopic degrees of freedom. Besides, at the atomistic level, GBs exhibit complicated behaviors under varying thermodynamic conditions. The complexity of atomistic GB structures demands stochastic searching for possible states. The effectiveness of stochastic search methods relies on techniques to recreate and select atomistic structures. In this work, we developed a new mutation operator that can induce direct and collective atomistic structure changes to boost the search efficiency of exploring GB structures with evolutionary algorithms (EA). We implemented the mutation methods along with innovative selection, crossover, boundary condition preprocessing methods to form an EA-based package to explore GB structures in grand canonical ensembles with atomistic simulations. We used this package to study the [001] symmetric tilt grain boundaries (STGBs) in FCC copper (Cu), the [110] STGBs in BCC tungsten (W), and the $[1\bar{2}10]$ STGBs in HCP magnesium (Mg). The results show that our design and implementation based on new mutation procedures, selection, and boundary conditions provide a high-quality search of atomistic GB structures in the grand canonical ensemble for different crystal lattices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Extremes and Compound Impacts: Applications of Machine Learning and Interpretable Neural Networks

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator)

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator) is a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool for wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers and industry consultants to estimate the potential for soaring raptors to interact with operating wind turbines, without the need for site-specific data collection. Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has exposed the risk of turbine collisions for birds and bats. The risk to obligate soaring raptors such as golden eagles is of particular concern due to their small population and influence on ecological balance. Golden eagles rely heavily on updrafts to subsidize their flight, putting them in direct conflict with operational wind turbines that utilize the same wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors with varying atmospheric conditions is crucial for predicting and mitigating the risk of turbine collision. This software contains a predictive movement model that simulates individual flight paths of golden eagles during updraft-subsidized long-distance flight, including migration. For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates thousands of eagles at turbine-scale spatial resolution (50m) to produce a relative presence density map. The simulated eagles rely on updrafts to pursue uninterrupted directional flight with minimal energy expenditure, following fluid-flow principles. The simulator includes a stochastic model of eagle behavior and a systematic method of accounting for spatiotemporal variations in atmospheric conditions. This framework only requires publicly available atmospheric data to estimate orographic and thermal updrafts, ensuring general usability.

Sandhu, Rimple↗

DOE OSTI2023

Correspondence between open bosonic systems and stochastic differential equations

Bosonic mean-field theories can approximate the dynamics of systems of $n$ bosons provided that $n \gg 1$. Here, we show that there can also be an exact correspondence at finite $n$ when the bosonic system is generalized to include interactions with the environment and the mean-field theory is replaced by a stochastic differential equation. When the $n \to \infty$ limit is taken, the stochastic terms in this differential equation vanish, and a mean-field theory is recovered. Besides providing insight into the differences between the behavior of finite quantum systems and their classical limits given by $n \to \infty$, the developed mathematics can provide a basis for quantum algorithms that solve some stochastic nonlinear differential equations. We discuss conditions on the efficiency of these quantum algorithms, with a focus on the possibility for the complexity to be polynomial in the log of the stochastic system size. A particular system with the form of a stochastic discrete nonlinear Schrödinger equation is analyzed in more detail.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Manifold learning for coarse-graining atomistic simulations: Application to amorphous solids

In this work, we introduce a generalized machine learning framework to probabilistically parameterize upper-scale models in the form of nonlinear PDEs consistent with a continuum theory, based on coarse-grained atomistic simulation data of mechanical deformation and flow processes. The proposed framework utilizes a hypothesized coarse-graining methodology with manifold learning and surrogate-based optimization techniques. Coarse-grained high-dimensional data describing quantities of interest of the multiscale models are projected onto a nonlinear manifold whose geometric and topological structure is exploited for measuring behavioral discrepancies in the form of manifold distances. A surrogate model is constructed using Gaussian process regression to identify a mapping between stochastic parameters and distances. Derivative-free optimization is employed to adaptively identify a unique set of parameters of the upper-scale model capable of rapidly reproducing the system's behavior while maintaining consistency with coarse-grained atomic-level simulations. The proposed method is applied to learn the parameters of the shear transformation zone (STZ) theory of plasticity that describes plastic deformation in amorphous solids as well as coarse-graining parameters needed to translate between atomistic and continuum representations. We show that the methodology is able to successfully link coarse-grained microscale simulations to macroscale observables and achieve a high-level of parity between the models across scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reconstruction of effective potential from statistical analysis of dynamic trajectories

The broad incorporation of microscopic methods is yielding a wealth of information on the atomic and mesoscale dynamics of individual atoms, molecules, and particles on surfaces and in open volumes. Analysis of such data necessitates statistical frameworks to convert observed dynamic behaviors to effective properties of materials. Here, we develop a method for the stochastic reconstruction of effective local potentials solely from observed structural data collected from molecular dynamics simulations (i.e., data analogous to those obtained via atomically resolved microscopies). Using the silicon vacancy defect in graphene as a model, we apply the statistical framework presented herein to reconstruct the free energy landscape from the calculated atomic displacements. Evidence of consistency between the reconstructed local potential and the trajectory data from which it was produced is presented, along with a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in the inferred parameters.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Origin of Rapid Delithiation In Secondary Particles Of LiNi 0.8 Co 0.15 Al 0.05 O 2 and LiNi y Mn z Co 1− y − z O 2 Cathodes

Abstract Most research on the electrochemical dynamics in materials for high‐energy Li‐ion batteries has focused on the global behavior of the electrode. This approach is susceptible to misleading analyses resulting from idiosyncratic kinetic conditions, such as surface impurities inducing an apparent two‐phase transformation within LiNi 0.8 Co 0.15 Al 0.05 O 2 . Here, nano‐focused X‐ray probes are used to measure delithiation operando at the scale of secondary particle agglomerates in layered cathode materials during charge. After an initial latent phase, individual secondary particles undergo rapid, stochastic, and largely uniform delithiation, which is in contrast with the gradual increase in cell potential. This behavior reproduces across several layered oxides. Operando X‐ray microdiffraction (‐XRD) leverages the relationship between Li content and lattice parameter to further reveal that rate acceleration occurs between Li‐site fraction ( x Li ) ≈0.9 and ≈0.5 for LiNi 0.8 Co 0.15 Al 0.05 O 2 . Physics‐based modeling shows that, to reproduce the experimental results, the exchange current density ( i 0 ) must depend on x Li , and that i 0 should increase rapidly over three orders of magnitude at the transition point. The specifics and implications of this jump in i 0 are crucial to understanding the charge‐storage reaction of Li‐ion battery cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effect of particle size on the capture of uranium oxide colloidal particles from aqueous suspensions via high-gradient magnetic filtration

The effectiveness of High Gradient Magnetic Filtration (HGMF) in capturing uranium oxide particles from suspensions was investigated in this study. Two sets of experiments were performed to evaluate the importance of size on the capture of uranium oxide particles. The first considered two batches sieved into size bins of< 5, 5–10, 10–15, and 15–20 µm, while the second was performed using two suspensions with diameters smaller than 1.0 µm and between 1.0 and 1.5 µm. Iron oxide experiments, with particles between 0.3 and 0.8 µm, were performed for calibration purposes. In all experiments, a surfactant (Triton-X100 or sodium dodecyl sulfate) was used to prevent particle aggregation and limit the influence of non-magnetic capture mechanisms. A magnetic field of approximately 1.1 Tesla was generated using a water cooled electromagnet. HGMF was performed using tubular filters packed with ferromagnetic stainless-steel wool. Of the initial four uranium oxide particle sizes, magnetic capture was only observed for particles with a diameter of less than 5 µm, while larger particles experienced no magnetic and minimal total capture. For particles with diameters smaller than 1.0 µm and between 1.0 and 1.5 µm, capture efficiencies increased by 39 ± 9% and 34 ± 6% respectively, solely due to the magnetic field. Although the magnetic force is proportional to particle diameter, the capture efficiency decreased as diameter increased. So these results suggest that Brownian diffusion, which is influential for micron sized particles and increases with decreasing particle size, is acting in conjunction with the magnetic force to influence the efficacy of HGMF for uranium oxide. This important finding underscores the effectiveness of Brownian diffusion in increasing the rate of collision between particles and collector fibers. A stochastic trajectory model was developed to incorporate the influence of Brownian motion on particle behavior and filter removal efficiency. Modeling results are discussed and compared for uranium and iron oxide particles.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Soft pions and transport near the chiral critical point

During the expansion of a heavy ion collision, the system passes close to the $\textit{O}$(4) critical point of QCD, and thus the fluctuations of the order parameter $(σ, \overrightarrow{π}$) are expected to be enhanced. In this work, our goal is to compute how these enhanced fluctuations modify the transport coefficients of QCD near the pseudocritical point. We also make a phenomenological estimate for how chiral fluctuations could effect the momentum spectrum of soft pions. We first formulate the appropriate stochastic hydrodynamic equations close to the $\textit{O}$(4) critical point. Then, working in mean field, we determine the correlation functions of the stress tensor and the currents which result from this stochastic real-time theory, and use these correlation functions to determine the scaling behavior of the transport coefficients. The hydrodynamic theory also describes the propagation of pion waves, fixing the scaling behavior of the dispersion curve of soft pions. We present scaling functions for the shear viscosity and the charge conductivities near the pseudocritical point and estimate the absolute magnitude of the critical fluctuations to these parameters and the bulk viscosity. Using the calculated pion dispersion curve, we estimate the expected critical enhancement of soft pion yields, and this estimate provides a plausible explanation for the excess seen in experiment relative to ordinary hydrodynamic computations. Our results motivate further phenomenological and numerical work on the implications of chiral symmetry on real-time properties of thermal QCD near the pseudocritical point.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Saturation and Recurrence of Quantum Complexity in Random Local Quantum Dynamics

Quantum complexity is a measure of the minimal number of elementary operations required to approximately prepare a given state or unitary channel. Recently, this concept has found applications beyond quantum computing—in studying the dynamics of quantum many-body systems and the long-time properties of anti–de Sitter black holes. In this context, Brown and Susskind [] conjectured that the complexity of a chaotic quantum system grows linearly in time up to times exponential in the system size, saturating at a maximal value, and remaining maximally complex until undergoing recurrences at doubly exponential times. In this work, we prove the saturation and recurrence of complexity in two models of chaotic time evolutions based on (i) random local quantum circuits and (ii) stochastic local Hamiltonian evolution. Our results advance an understanding of the long-time behavior of chaotic quantum systems and could shed light on the physics of black-hole interiors. From a technical perspective, our results are based on establishing new quantitative connections between the Haar measure and high-degree approximate designs, as well as the fact that random quantum circuits of sufficiently high depth converge to approximate designs. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Oszmaniec, Michał (ORCID:0000000249466835)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic reconstruction of fracture network pattern using spatial point processes

Fracture spatial patterns can strongly affect fluid flow in the subsurface. Proximity and distribution of fractures control reservoir flow behavior over various length scales. In many studies, however, simplified geometrical patterns are generated for fractures which may lead to unrealistic subsurface models. Here we introduce a new method for characterization and modeling of fracture spatial patterns based on outcrop observations. We use Ripley's K-function to characterize the arrangement of fracture barycenters and intersection points over various length scales. In addition, we use semivariograms to quantify spatial correlation in fracture intensity maps. Using this information, we develop a stochastic algorithm that generates two-dimensional fracture network realizations with spatial properties similar to those of a real fracture network measured in the field. Numerical simulation models indicate that the generated fracture realizations exhibit similar flow behaviors as that of the original fracture network. Furthermore, such modeling tools expand and improve our capability in building representative fracture models and in quantification of uncertainty in naturally and hydraulically fractured reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗