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At least 91 records · Page 5

The Use of a Two-Dimensional, Time-Dependent Cloud Model to Predict Convective and Stratiform Clouds and Precipitation

A two-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model has been used in two field projects to forecast the convective development during the day from the morning sounding. In effect, the cloud model gives a dynamic analysis of the sounding as affected by heating and evaporation at the earth's surface, divergence of the winds throughout the atmosphere, and cloud shadow effects. During the initial project, the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment, the results were mixed. Model runs were easily made when soundings were available. but displaying the results in a meaningful and useful way was the limiting factor. In a later experiment, the North Dakota Thunderstorm Project, the problem of displaying results was overcome and soundings were available from the local weather service forecast office with a high degree of reliability. The experimental model correctly forecasts convective development about 80% of the time, and precipitation or no precipitation more than 70% of the time.

Kopp, Fred J.↗

Influence of Subpixel Scale Cloud Top Structure on Reflectances from Overcast Stratiform Cloud Layers

Recent observational studies have shown that satellite retrievals of cloud optical depth based on plane-parallel model theory suffer from systematic biases that depend on viewing geometry, even when observations are restricted to overcast marine stratus layers, arguably the closest to plane parallel in nature. At moderate to low sun elevations, the plane-parallel model significantly overestimates the reflectance dependence on view angle in the forward-scattering direction but shows a similar dependence in the backscattering direction. Theoretical simulations are performed that show that the likely cause for this discrepancy is because the plane-parallel model assumption does not account for subpixel, scale variations in cloud-top height (i.e., "cloud bumps"). Monte Carlo simulation, comparing ID model radiances to radiances from overcast cloud field with 1) cloud-top height variation, but constant cloud volume extinction; 2) flat tops but horizontal variations in cloud volume extinction; and 3) variations in both cloud top height and cloud extinction are performed over a approximately equal to 4 km x 4 km domain (roughly the size of an individual GAC AVHRR pixel). The comparisons show that when cloud-top height variations are included, departures from 1D theory are remarkably similar (qualitatively) to those obtained observationally. In contrast, when clouds are assumed flat and only cloud extinction is variable, reflectance differences are much smaller and do not show any view-angle dependence. When both cloud-top height and cloud extinction variations are included, however, large increases in cloud extinction variability can enhance reflectance difference. The reason 3D-1D reflectance differences are more sensitive to cloud-top height variations in the forward-scattering direction (at moderate to low, sun elevations) is because photons leaving the cloud field in that direction experience fewer scattering events (low-order scattering) and are restricted to the topmost portions of the cloud. While reflectance deviations from 1D theory are much larger for bumpy clouds than for flat clouds with variable cloud extinction, differences in cloud albedo are comparable for these two cases.

Loeb, N. G.↗

Use of TRMM Data to Test an Improved Parameterization of Stratiform Precipitation

By incorporating the TRMM satellite orbital information into the most recent geodesic version of the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM), we are able to fly a satellite in the GCM, and sample the simulated atmosphere in the same way as the TRMM sensors sample the real atmosphere. The TRMM sampling statistics of precipitation and radiative fluxes at annual, intra-seasonal, monthly-mean and composited diurnal time scales are evaluated by comparing the satellite-sampled against fully-sampled simulated atmospheres. This information provides a valuable guidance for efficient usage of TRMM data and future satellite mission planning. We have also evaluated the effects of TRMM sampling errors on the inferred tropical-mean hydrologic cycle and radiative fluxes. We have found that there are strong spurious oscillations associated with the TRMM orbital geometry, with periods of 23 days and 3-4 months, in tropical-mean daily and monthly precipitation. Caution must therefore be used when applying TRMM observations of tropical-mean precipitation to interpret climate variations at intraseasonal and interannual scales.

Randall, David A.↗

Entrainment, Drizzle, and the Indirect Effect in Stratiform Clouds

Activation of some fraction of increased concentrations of sub-micron soluble aerosol particles lead to enhanced cloud droplet concentrations and hence smaller droplets, increasing their total cross sectional area and thus reflecting solar radiation more efficiently (the Twomey, or first indirect, effect). However, because of competition during condensational growth, droplet distributions tend to broaden as numbers increase, reducing the sensitivity of cloud albedo to droplet concentration on the order of 10%. Also, smaller droplets less effectively produce drizzle through collisions and coalescence, and it is widely expected (and found in large-scale models) that decreased precipitation leads to clouds with more cloud water on average (the so-called cloud lifetime, or second indirect, effect). Much of the uncertainty regarding the overall indirect aerosol effect stems from inadequate understanding of such changes in cloud water. Detailed simulations based on FIRE-I, ASTEX, and DYCOMS-II conditions show that suppression of precipitation from increased droplet concentrations leads to increased cloud water only when sufficient precipitation reaches the surface, a condition favored when the overlying air is-humid or droplet concentrations are very low. Otherwise, aerosol induced suppression of precipitation enhances entrainment of overlying dry air, thereby reducing cloud water and diminishing the indirect climate forcing.

Ackerman, Andrew↗

Exploring the Continuum of Stratiform and Cumulus Cloudiness: Observational Insights Related to Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

Low-level marine clouds take on a wide range of morphological states owing to external forcing and internal feedbacks. Rarely are shallow marine clouds adequately described by a single simplified framework but instead exhibit features that partially conform to several states that could be considered “limiting”. Perhaps the most apparent dichotomy is whether to consider shallow clouds as existing within a surface-driven mixed layer or as convective “plume” elements positioned on top. Do the rules that govern the limiting cases transition smoothly through the hybrid scenarios found in nature, or are there particular regions of attraction or repulsion?We have identified 3 ”axes” along which to investigate how the energetics, thermodynamics and cloud macro structure relate to the intermediate spaces between idealizations.

Ewan Crosbie↗

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release and Their Retrieval for TOGA COARE Convective Systems Using a Cloud Resolving Model, SSM/I, and Ship-borne Radar Data

Latent heating profiles associated with three (TOGA COARE) Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment active convective episodes (December 10-17 1992; December 19-27 1992; and February 9-13 1993) are examined using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model and retrieved by using the Goddard Convective and Stratiform Heating (CSH) algorithm . The following sources of rainfall information are input into the CSH algorithm: Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1), Radar and the GCE model. Diagnostically determined latent heating profiles calculated using 6 hourly soundings are used for validation. The GCE model simulated rainfall and latent heating profiles are in excellent agreement with those estimated by soundings. In addition, the typical convective and stratiform heating structures (or shapes) are well captured by the GCE model. Radar measured rainfall is smaller than that both estimated by the GCE model and SSM/I in all three different COARE IFA periods. SSM/I derived rainfall is more than the GCE model simulated for the December 19-27 and February 9-13 periods, but is in excellent agreement with the GCE model for the December 10-17 period. The GCE model estimated stratiform amount is about 50% for December 19-27, 42% for December 11-17 and 56% for the February 9-13 case. These results are consistent with large-scale analyses. The accurate estimates of stratiform amount is needed for good latent heating retrieval. A higher (lower) percentage of stratiform rain can imply a maximum heating rate at a higher (lower) altitude. The GCE model always simulates more stratiform rain (10 to 20%) than the radar for all three convective episodes. SSM/I derived stratiform amount is about 37% for December 19-27, 48% for December 11-17 and 41% for the February 9-13 case. Temporal variability of CSH algorithm retrieved latent heating profiles using either GCE model simulated or radar estimated rainfall and stratiform amount is in good agreement with that diagnostically determined for all three periods. However, less rainfall and a smaller stratiform percentage estimated by radar resulted in a weaker (underestimated) latent heating profile and a lower maximum latent heating level compared to those determined diagnostically. Rainfall information from SSM/I can not retrieve individual convective events due to poor temporal sampling. Nevertheless, this study suggests that a good 4r, rainfall retrieval from SSM/I for a convective event always leads to a good latent heating retrieval. Sensitivity testing has been performed and the results indicate that the SSM/I derived time averaged stratiform amount may be underestimated for December 19-27. Time averaged heating profiles derived from SSM/I, however, are not in bad agreement with those derived by soundings for the December 10-17 convective period. The heating retrievals may be more accurate for longer time scales provided there is no bias in the sampling.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to the Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes

A cloud-resolving model is used to study sensitivities of two different microphysical schemes, one is the traditional bulk type, and the other is an explicit bin scheme, in simulating a mid-latitude squall line case (PRE-STORM, June 10-1 1,1985). Simulations using different microphysical schemes are compared with each other and also with the observations. Both the bulk and bin models reproduce the general features during the developing and mature stage of the system. Furthermore, the observations and the well-proven bulk scheme simulation serve as validations for the newly incorporated bin scheme. However, it is also shown that the bulk and bin simulations have distinct differences, most notably in the stratiform region of the squall line system. Weak convective cells exist in the stratiform region in the bulk simulation, but not in the bin simulation. These weak convective cells in the stratiform region simulated in the bulk scheme model are remnants of the stronger convections previously at the leading edge of the system, sustained by horizontal vorticity generated by its own cool pool near the surface. The bin simulation, on the other hand, has a horizontally homogeneous stratiform cloud structure, which agrees better with the observations. Examinations of the downdraft core strength, the potential temperature perturbation, and the evaporative cooling rate show that the differences between the bulk and bin models are due mainly to the stronger low-level evaporative cooling in the convective zone simulated in the bulk microphysical scheme, which is unrealistic because of the assumptions made in raindrop size distribution. Further sensitivity tests that reduce the evaporation rate in bulk scheme artificially produce more upright convective core and less weak cores in stratiform region. However, they produce weaker upper level outflow and consequently less stratiform rain area. The addition of a more realistic raindrop breakup scheme in the bin scheme results more realistic radar reflectivity and stronger surface rainfall. Despite the increase of the rain evaporation and strengthening of the near surface cool pool, bin scheme with rain breakup shows homogeneous stratiform rain. These sensitivity tests prove the robustness of the bin microphysical scheme and the difficulty of tuning the limited parameters in the bulk microphysical scheme to realistically reproduce detail structures in a mid-latitude squall line case study.

Li, Xiao-Wen↗

Numerical case study of the aerosol–cloud interactions in warm boundary layer clouds over the eastern North Atlantic with an interactive chemistry module

The presence of warm boundary layer stratiform clouds over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region is commonly influenced by the Azores High, especially during the summer season. To investigate comprehensive aerosol–cloud interactions, this study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem), incorporating aerosol chemical components that are relevant to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and accounting for aerosol spatiotemporal variation. This study focuses on aerosol indirect effects, particularly the long-range transport of aerosols, in the ENA region under three different weather regimes: a ridge with a surface high-pressure system, a post-trough with a surface high-pressure system, and a weak trough. The WRF-Chem simulations conducted at a near-large-eddy scale offer valuable insights into the model's performance, especially in terms of its ability to use high spatial resolution to capture mesoscale cloud features across various weather regimes. Our result shows that introducing 5 times more aerosols to either non-precipitating or precipitating clouds significantly increases ambient CCN numbers, resulting in, to varying degrees, higher liquid water path (LWP) values. The substantial aerosol–cloud interaction especially occurs in the precipitating clouds and demonstrates the susceptibility of the LWP to changes in CCN under different regimes. Conversely, thin, non-rain clouds at the edges of a cloud system are prone to evaporation, exhibiting an aerosol drying effect. The aerosols released during this process transition back to the accumulation mode, facilitating future activation. This dynamic behavior is not adequately represented in prescribed-aerosol simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The tropical water and energy cycles in a cumulus ensemble model. Part 1: Equilibrium climate

A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated latent heating in the water cycle is the dominant source in the heat budget that generates a net upward motion in convective regions, upper stratiform regions (above the freezing level), and a downward motion in the lower stratiform regions. The budgets reveal a cycle of water and energy resulted from radiation-dynamic-convection interactions that maintain equilibrium of the atmosphere.

Sui, C. H.↗

Analysis of TRMM Microphysical Measurements: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)

SPEC Incorporated participated in three of the four TRMM field campaigns (TEFLUN-A, TEFLUN-B and KWAJEX), installing and operating a cloud particle imager (CPI) and a high volume precipitation spectrometer (HVPS) on the SPEC Learjet in TEFLUN-A, the University of North Dakota Citation in TEFLUN-B and KWAJEX, and a CPI on the NASA DC-8 in KWAJEX. This report presents and discusses new software tools and algorithms that were developed to analyze microphysical data collected during these field campaigns, as well as scientific interpretations of the data themselves. Software algorithms were developed to improve the analysis of microphysical measurements collected by the TRMM aircraft during the field campaigns. Particular attention was paid to developing and/or improving algorithms used to compute particle size distributions and ice water content. Software was also developed in support of production of the TRMM Common Microphysical Product (CMP) data files. CMP data files for TEFLUN-A field campaign were produced and submitted to the DAAC. Typical microphysical properties of convective and stratiform regions from TEFLUN-A and KWAJEX clouds were produced. In general, it was found that in the upper cloud region near -20 to -25 C, stratiform clouds contain very high (greater than 1 per cubic centimeter) concentrations of small ice particles, which are suspected to be a residual from homogeneous freezing and sedimentation of small drops in a convective updraft. In the upper cloud region near -20 to -25 C, convective clouds contain aggregates, which are not found lower in the cloud. Stratiform clouds contain aggregates at all levels, with the majority in the lowest levels. Convective cloud regions contain much higher LWC and drop concentrations than stratiform regions at all levels, and higher LWC in the middle and upper regions. Stratiform clouds contain higher IWC than convective clouds only at the lowest level. Irregular shaped ice particles are found in very high concentrations throughout both convective and stratiform cloud regions. A striking difference in particle shape in cirrus formed in situ, cirrus formed from maritime anvils and cirrus formed from continental anvils. Over 50% of the mass of in situ cirrus ice particles is composed of bullet rosettes, while bullet rosettes are virtually non-existent in maritime and tropical anvils. Tropical anvils are composed of mostly singular, plates, capped columns, and blocky irregular shapes, while continental anvils have a much higher percentage of aggregates, some of which are chains of small spheroidal particles that appear to result from homogeneous freezing of drops. A correlation between high electric fields in continental anvils and the formation of aggregates is hypothesized.

Source record↗

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007): Warm Core Formation, Precipitation Evolution, and Predictability - Part 2

This is the second of a two-part study examining the simulated formation of Atlantic Hurricane Felix (2007) in a cloud-representing framework. Here several open issues are addressed concerning the formation of the storm's warm core, the evolution and respective contribution of stratiform versus convective precipitation within the parent wave's pouch, and the sensitivity of the development pathway reported in Part I to different model physics options and initial conditions. All but one of the experiments include ice microphysics as represented by one of several parameterizations, and the partition of convective versus stratiform precipitation is accomplished using a standard numerical technique based on the high-resolution control experiment. The transition to a warm-core tropical cyclone from an initially cold-core, lower tropospheric wave disturbance is analyzed first. As part of this transformation process, it is shown that deep moist convection is sustained near the pouch center. Both convective and stratiform precipitation rates increase with time. While stratiform precipitation occupies a larger area even at the tropical storm stage, deep moist convection makes a comparable contribution to the total rain rate at the pregenesis stage, and a larger contribution than stratiform processes at the storm stage. The convergence profile averaged near the pouch center is found to become dominantly convective with increasing deep moist convective activity there. Low-level convergence forced by interior diabatic heating plays a key role in forming and intensifying the near-surface closed circulation, while the midlevel convergence associated with stratiform precipitation helps to increase the midlevel circulation and thereby contributes to the formation and upward extension of a tropospheric-deep cyclonic vortex. Sensitivity tests with different model physics options and initial conditions demonstrate a similar pregenesis evolution. These tests suggest that the genesis location of a tropical storm is largely controlled by the parent wave's critical layer, whereas the genesis time and intensity of the protovortex depend on the details of the mesoscale organization, which is less predictable. Some implications of the findings are discussed.

Wang, zhuo↗

Advancing Organized Convection Representation in the Unified Model: Implementing and Enhancing Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization

To address the effect of stratiform latent heating on meso- to large-scale circulations, an enhanced implementation of the Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization (MCSP) is developed for the Met Office Unified Model. MCSP represents the top-heavy stratiform latent heating from under-resolved organized convection in general circulation models. We couple the MCSP with a mass-flux convection scheme (CoMorph-A) to improve storm lifecycle continuity. The improved MCSP trigger is specifically designed for mixed-phase deep convective cloud, combined with a background vertical wind shear, both known to be crucial for stratiform development. We also test a cloud top temperature dependent convective-stratiform heating partitioning, in contrast to the earlier fixed partitioning. Assessments from ensemble weather forecasts and decadal simulations demonstrate that MCSP directly reduces cloud deepening and precipitation areas by moderating mesoscale circulations. Indirectly, it amends tropical precipitation biases, notably correcting dry and wet biases over India and the Indian Ocean, respectively. Remarkably, the scheme outperforms a climate model ensemble by improving seasonal precipitation cycle predictions in these regions. The scheme also improves Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) spectra, achieving better alignment with observational and reanalysis data by intensifying the simulated MJO over the Indian Ocean during phases 4 to 5. However, the scheme increases precipitation overestimation over the Western Pacific. Shifting from fixed to temperature-dependent convective-stratiform partitioning reduces the Pacific precipitation overestimation and further improves the seasonal cycle in India. Spatially correlated biases highlight the necessity for advances beyond deterministic approaches to align MCSP with environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dependencies of Simulated Convective Cell and System Growth Biases on Atmospheric Instability and Model Resolution

Abstract This study evaluates convective cell properties and their relationships with convective and stratiform rainfall within a season‐long convection‐permitting weather research and forecasting simulation over central Argentina using radar, satellite, and radiosonde measurements from the RELAMPAGO‐CACTI field campaign. The simulation slightly underestimates radar‐estimated rainfall over the ∼3.5‐month evaluation period but underestimates stratiform rainfall by 46% and overestimates convective rainfall by 43%. As convective available potential energy (CAPE) increases, the convective rainfall overestimation decreases, but the stratiform rainfall underestimation increases such that the contribution of convective to total rainfall remains constantly high biased by ∼26%. Overestimated convective rainfall arises from the simulation generating 2.6 times more precipitating convective cells (14,299) than observed by radar (5,662) despite similar observed and simulated cell growth processes, with relatively wide cells contributing mostly to excessive convective rainfall. Relatively shallow cells, typically reaching heights of 4–7 km, contribute most to the cell number bias. This cell number bias increases as CAPE decreases, potentially because cells and their updrafts become narrower and more under‐resolved as CAPE decreases. The gross overproduction of precipitating shallow cells leads to overly efficient precipitation and inadequate detrainment of ice aloft, thereby diminishing the formation of robust stratiform rainfall regions. Decreasing model horizontal grid spacing from 3 to 1 or 0.333 km for low (<300 J kg −1 ) and high CAPE (>1,000 J kg −1 ) cases results in minimal change to cell number, depth, and convective‐to‐stratiform partitioning biases. This suggests that improving prediction of these convective properties depends on factors beyond solely increasing model resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗