Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “structural uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant

Abstract Hydropower is a low-carbon emission renewable energy source that provides competitive and flexible electricity generation and is essential to the evolving power grid in the context of decarbonization. Assessing hydropower availability in a changing climate is technically challenging because there is a lack of consensus in the modeling representation of key dynamics across scales and processes. Focusing on 132 US federal hydropower plants, in this study we evaluate the compounded impact of climate and reservoir-hydropower models’ structural uncertainties on monthly hydropower projections. In particular, instead of relying on one single regression-based hydropower model, we introduce another conceptual reservoir operations-hydropower model in the assessment framework. This multi-model assessment approach allows us to partition uncertainties associated with both climate and hydropower models for better clarity. Results suggest that while at least 70% of the uncertainties at the annual scale and 50% at the seasonal scale can be attributed to the choice of climate models, up to 50% of seasonal variability can be attributed to the choice of hydropower models, particularly in regions over the western US where the reservoir storage is substantial. The analysis identifies regions where multi-model assessments are needed and presents a novel approach to partition uncertainties in hydropower projections. Another outcome includes an updated evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-based federal hydropower projection, at the monthly scale and with a larger ensemble, which can provide a baseline for understanding future assessments based on CMIP6 and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives

The adequate simulation of internal climate variability is key for our understanding of climate as it underpins efforts to attribute historical events, predict on seasonal and decadal time scales, and isolate the effects of climate change. Here the skill of models in reproducing observed modes of climate variability is assessed, both across and within the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 archives, in order to document model capabilities, progress across ensembles, and persisting biases. A focus is given to the well-observed tropical and extratropical modes that exhibit small intrinsic variability relative to model structural uncertainty. These include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the northern and southern annular modes (NAM and SAM). Significant improvements are identified in models’ representation of many modes. Canonical biases, which involve both amplitudes and patterns, are generally reduced across model generations. For example, biases in ENSO-related equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, which extend too far westward, and associated atmospheric teleconnections, which are too weak, are reduced. Stronger tropical expression of the PDO in successive CMIP generations has characterized their improvement, with some CMIP6 models generating patterns that lie within the range of observed estimates. For the NAO, NAM, and SAM, pattern correlations with observations are generally higher than for other modes and slight improvements are identified across successive model generations. Finally, for ENSO and PDO spectra and extratropical modes, changes are small compared to internal variability, precluding definitive statements regarding improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interpretable Deep Learning for the Earth System with Fractal Nets

Focal Area 3: Explainable AI Our confidence in the projections made by Earth System Models (ESMs) depends on understanding them to be, in some important respects, faithful representations of the Earth system. Here we present an “explainable Artificial Intelligence (AI)” method that allows us to uncover the dynamical structure of the observed and modeled Earth system, discover hidden links across wide spatiotemporal scales, target model development efforts at poorly-represented dynamics, and optimize observed or modeled data collection to maximize predictive information. Science Challenge: Dynamical system science for the Earth system poses unique challenges given the large degree of internal climate variability. Thus, tools that help us understand how ESMs succeed and fail at representing these dynamics are crucial, particularly in relation to the observed system. Furthermore, the computational and memory constraints on ESM data output motivate in situ analysis of ESM dynamics, including automatic detection of dynamical shifts. Also, of key importance are procedures that leverage ESMs to optimize observational campaigns for improving process representation, reducing structural uncertainty and improving model skill.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale Aerosol Modeling Across Space and Composition (Final Report)

The objective of this project was to harness the capabilities of our unique particle-resolved aerosol model PartMC as an integrating tool between models and measurements across scales. This particle-resolved model explicitly resolves aerosol aging processes that must be approximated in large-scale models, making it ideal for quantifying structural uncertainty and rigorously deriving simplified parameterizations (“coarse graining”) to be used in large-scale models. It also directly connects with laboratory and field measurements at both particle and bulk scales. The significant accomplishments of this project are as follows: 1. Advancing the state of the art in particle-resolved modeling; 2. Connecting modeling with ASR/ARM measurements; 3. Bridging from the process level to aerosol impacts on the global scale; 4. Community engagement through leading and participating in ASR program activities and publishing a review paper on aerosol mixing state that synthesizes experimental and modeling perspectives.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging High-resolution Molecular Composition of Soil Organic Matter to Enhance Carbon Cycling Modeling

Soils store more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined, yet Earth system models still struggle to predict how this vast reservoir will respond to environmental change. A central limitation is that most soil biogeochemical models represent organic matter using bulk conceptual pools or chemically homogeneous fractions, preventing direct use of rapidly expanding molecular-scale datasets. Here we develop and test a new soil decomposition framework that explicitly integrates high-resolution information on organic matter composition. First, we construct a molecularly informed litter decomposition module in which plant inputs are partitioned into five functional compound classes—carbohydrates, proteins, lignin-like aromatics, lipids, and carbonyls—using a molecular mixing model calibrated to solid-state 13 C Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectra. Class-specific kinetics, lignin-dependent physical protection, and substrate-driven microbial carbon use efficiency allow the module to capture metabolic tradeoffs associated with enzyme production and nutrient limitation. We then embed this litter module within a microbially explicit whole-soil model that tracks the transformation of these compound classes through particulate organic matter, dissolved organic matter, mineral-associated organic matter, and microbial biomass. High-resolution Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data are used to link internal pools to measurable soil organic matter fractions and to constrain key process parameters. Applications at soil-core and ecosystem scales demonstrate that the new model reproduces observed soil respiration dynamics while providing mechanistic attribution of CO 2 fluxes to specific chemical classes and pools. Compared to existing frameworks such as the Community Land Model soil biogeochemistry module and the Millennial model, our approach maintains competitive predictive skill while substantially improving interpretability and opportunities for data–model integration. This work illustrates a viable pathway for leveraging molecular-scale observations to reduce structural uncertainty in soil carbon–climate feedback projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the “signal-to-noise paradox” and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Spatial Models for Projecting Corn Yields

Climate change is predicted to impact corn yields. Previous studies analyzing these impacts differ in data and modeling approaches and, consequently, corn yield projections. We analyze the impacts of climate change on corn yields using two statistical models with different approaches for dealing with county-level effects. The first model, which is novel to modeling corn yields, uses a computationally efficient spatial basis function approach. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate both parametric and climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the statistical models have similar predictive abilities, but the spatial basis function model is faster and hence potentially a useful tool for crop yield projections. We also explore how different gridded temperature datasets affect the statistical model fit and performance. Compared to the dataset with only weather station data, we find that the dataset composed of satellite and weather station data results in a model with a magnified relationship between temperature and corn yields. For all statistical models, we observe a relationship between temperature and corn yields that is broadly similar to previous studies. We use downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP5 climate model projections to obtain detrended corn yield projections for 2020–2049 and 2069–2098. In both periods, we project a decrease in the mean corn yield production, reinforcing the findings of other studies. However, the magnitude of the decrease and the associated uncertainties we obtain differ from previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Pinhole occulter experiment

Viewgraphs and charts from a briefing summarize the accomplishments, results, conclusions, and recommendations of a feasibility study using the Pinhole Occulter Facility (POF). Accomplishments for 1986 include: (1) improved IPS Gimbal Model; (2) improved Crew Motion Disturbance Model; (3) use of existing shuttle on-orbit simulation to study the effects of orbiter attitude deadband size on POF performance; (4) increased understanding of maximum performance expected from current actuator/sensor set; (5) use of TREETOPS nonlinear time domain program to obtain system dynamics describing the complex multibody flexible structures; (6) use of HONEY-X design tool to design and evaluate multivariable compensator for stability, robustness, and performance; (7) application of state-of-the-art compensator design methodology Linear Quadratic Gaussian/Loop Transfer Recovery (LQG/LTR); and (8) examination of tolerance required on knowledge of the POF boom flexible mode frequencies to insure stability, using structure uncertainty analysis.

Ring, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS1991

Robust stabilization of the Space Station

A robust H-infinity control design methodology and its application to a Space Station Freedom (SSF) attitude and momentum control problem are presented. This approach incorporates nonlinear multi-parameter variations in the state-space formulation of H-infinity control theory. An application of this robust H-infinity control synthesis technique to the SSF control problem yields remarkable results in stability robustness with respect to moments of inertia variation of about 73 percent in one of the structured uncertainty directions. The performance and stability of this robust H-infinity controller for the SSF are compared to those of other controllers designed using a standard linear-quadratic-regulator synthesis technique.

Wie, Bong↗
NASA NTRS1991

Robustness of solutions to a benchmark control problem

The stochastic robustness of solutions to a benchmark control design problem has been analyzed. The analysis quantifies the controllers' stability and performance robustness with structured uncertainties in up to six system parameters. The analysis provides insights about system response that are not readily derived from other robustness criteria, providing a common ground for judging controllers produced by alternative methods.

Stengel, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The application of cost averaging techniques to robust control of the benchmark problem

A method is presented for the synthesis of robust controllers for linear time invariant systems with parameterized uncertainty structures. The method involves minimizing the average quadratic (H2) cost over the parameterized system. Bonded average cost implies stability over the set of systems. The average cost functional is minimized to derive robust fixed-order dynamic compensators. The robustness properties of these controllers are demonstrated on the sample problem.

Hagood, Nesbitt W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Robustness of solutions to a benchmark control problem

The robustness of 10 solutions to a benchmark control design problem presented at the 1990 American Control Conference has been evaluated. The 10 controllers have second-to-eighth-order transfer functions and have been designed using several different methods, including H-infinity optimization, loop-transfer recovery, imaginary-axis shifting, constrained optimization, structured covariance, game theory, and the internal model principle. Stochastic robustness analysis quantifies the controllers' stability and performance robustness with structured uncertainties in up to six system parameters. The analysis provides insights into system response that are not readily derived from other robustness criteria and provides a common ground for judging controllers produced by alternative methods. One important conclusion is that gain and phase margins are not reliable indicators of the probability of instability. Furthermore, parameter variations actually may improve the likelihood of achieving selected performance metrics, as demonstrated by results for the probability of settling-time exceedance.

Stengel, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Advanced aeroservoelastic stabilization techniques for hypersonic flight vehicles

Advanced high performance vehicles, including Single-Stage-To-Orbit (SSTO) hypersonic flight vehicles, that are statically unstable, require higher bandwidth flight control systems to compensate for the instability resulting in interactions between the flight control system, the engine/propulsion dynamics, and the low frequency structural modes. Military specifications, such as MIL-F-9490D and MIL-F-87242, tend to limit treatment of structural modes to conventional gain stabilization techniques. The conventional gain stabilization techniques, however, introduce low frequency effective time delays which can be troublesome from a flying qualities standpoint. These time delays can be alleviated by appropriate blending of gain and phase stabilization techniques (referred to as Hybrid Phase Stabilization or HPS) for the low frequency structural modes. The potential of using HPS for compensating structural mode interaction was previously explored. It was shown that effective time delay was significantly reduced with the use of HPS; however, the HPS design was seen to have greater residual response than a conventional gain stablized design. Additional work performed to advance and refine the HPS design procedure, to further develop residual response metrics as a basis for alternative structural stability specifications, and to develop strategies for validating HPS design and specification concepts in manned simulation is presented. Stabilization design sensitivity to structural uncertainties and aircraft-centered requirements are also assessed.

Chan, Samuel Y.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Review of LFTs, LMIs, and mu

The authors present a tutorial overview of linear fractional transformations (LFTs) and the role of the structured singular value, mu, and linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) in solving LFT problems. The authors first introduce the notation for LFTs and briefly discuss some of their properties. They then describe mu and its connections with LFTs. They focus on two standard notions of robust stability and performance, mu stability and performance and Q stability and performance, and their relationship is discussed. Comparisons with the L1 theory of robust performance with structured uncertainty are considered.

Doyle, John↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Comparison of Multivariable Control Design Techniques for a Turbofan Engine Control

This paper compares two previously published design procedures for two different multivariable control design techniques for application to a linear engine model of a jet engine. The two multivariable control design techniques compared were the Linear Quadratic Gaussian with Loop Transfer Recovery (LQG/LTR) and the H-Infinity synthesis. The two control design techniques were used with specific previously published design procedures to synthesize controls which would provide equivalent closed loop frequency response for the primary control loops while assuring adequate loop decoupling. The resulting controllers were then reduced in order to minimize the programming and data storage requirements for a typical implementation. The reduced order linear controllers designed by each method were combined with the linear model of an advanced turbofan engine and the system performance was evaluated for the continuous linear system. Included in the performance analysis are the resulting frequency and transient responses as well as actuator usage and rate capability for each design method. The controls were also analyzed for robustness with respect to structured uncertainties in the unmodeled system dynamics. The two controls were then compared for performance capability and hardware implementation issues.

Garg, Sanjay↗
NASA NTRS1996

Design of Robust Adaptive Unbalance Response Controllers for Rotors with Magnetic Bearings

Experimental results have recently demonstrated that an adaptive open loop control strategy can be highly effective in the suppression of unbalance induced vibration on rotors supported in active magnetic bearings. This algorithm, however, relies upon a predetermined gain matrix. Typically, this matrix is determined by an optimal control formulation resulting in the choice of the pseudo-inverse of the nominal influence coefficient matrix as the gain matrix. This solution may result in problems with stability and performance robustness since the estimated influence coefficient matrix is not equal to the actual influence coefficient matrix. Recently, analysis tools have been developed to examine the robustness of this control algorithm with respect to structured uncertainty. Herein, these tools are extended to produce a design procedure for determining the adaptive law's gain matrix. The resulting control algorithm has a guaranteed convergence rate and steady state performance in spite of the uncertainty in the rotor system. Several examples are presented which demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach and its advantages over the standard optimal control formulation.

Knospe, Carl R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Nondestructive Evaluation Correlated with Finite Element Analysis

Advanced materials are being developed for use in high-temperature gas turbine applications. For these new materials to be fully utilized, their deformation properties, their nondestructive evaluation (NDE) quality and material durability, and their creep and fatigue fracture characteristics need to be determined by suitable experiments. The experimental findings must be analyzed, characterized, modeled and translated into constitutive equations for stress analysis and life prediction. Only when these ingredients - together with the appropriate computational tools - are available, can durability analysis be performed in the design stage, long before the component is built. One of the many structural components being evaluated by the NDE group at the NASA Lewis Research Center is the flywheel system. It is being considered as an energy storage device for advanced space vehicles. Such devices offer advantages over electrochemical batteries in situations demanding high power delivery and high energy storage per unit weight. In addition, flywheels have potentially higher efficiency and longer lifetimes with proper motor-generator and rotor design. Flywheels made of fiber-reinforced polymer composite material show great promise for energy applications because of the high energy and power densities that they can achieve along with a burst failure mode that is relatively benign in comparison to those of flywheels made of metallic materials Therefore, to help improve durability and reduce structural uncertainties, we are developing a comprehensive analytical approach to predict the reliability and life of these components under these harsh loading conditions. The combination of NDE and two- and three-dimensional finite element analyses (e.g., stress analyses and fracture mechanics) is expected to set a standardized procedure to accurately assess the applicability of using various composite materials to design a suitable rotor/flywheel assembly.

Abdul-Azid, Ali↗