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85 records · Page 5

Helium in Stream Water as a Volcanic Monitoring Tool

Abstract We show that synoptic sampling of streams can be used to characterize volcanic volatiles in groundwater over large spatial scales. Synoptic sampling of dissolved noble gases, 222 Rn, major ions, and stream discharge was carried out along a 30 km reach of the Gibbon River, near Norris Geyser Basin in Yellowstone National Park, USA. Groundwater discharge location, volume, and composition were estimated by constrained calibration of a stream flow and solute transport model. Estimated groundwater composition from stream modeling was compared to shallow groundwater concentrations measured in nearby springs. 3 He, 222 Rn, and Cl signatures in the Gibbon River are indicative of groundwater discharge with a volcanic signature along the study reach. Stream water noble gas isotopic composition has similar isotopic mixing patterns to springs. The model‐estimated composition of groundwater discharging to the Gibbon agrees well with observed groundwater composition from nearby springs for all modeled analytes. We present the first observations of elevated mantle helium in stream water and show that stream water can be used as a convenient collection point to estimate spatially distributed groundwater composition and to monitor changes in volatile flux over large spatial areas. These results offer the possibility that stream surveys in volcanic terrain could be a new method for distributed volcanic monitoring at the catchment scale and beyond.

Gardner, W. Payton↗

Potential Impacts of Assimilating All-sky Satellite Infrared Radiances on Convection-Permitting Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Convection

Geostationary infrared satellite observations are spatially dense [< 1/(20 km)2] and temporally frequent (< 1/hour). These suggest the possibility of using these observations to constrain sub-synoptic features over data sparse regions, such as tropical oceans. In this study, the potential impacts of assimilating water vapor channel brightness temperature (WV-BT) observations from the geostationary Meteorological Satellite 7 (Meteosat-7) on tropical convection analysis and prediction were systematically examined through a series of ensemble data assimilation experiments. WV-BT observations were assimilated hourly into convection-permitting ensembles using Penn State’s ensemble square root filter (EnSRF). Comparisons against independently observed Meteosat-7 window channel brightness temperature (Window-BT) show that the assimilation of WV-BT generally improved the intensities and locations of large-scale cloud patterns at spatial scales larger than 100 km. However, comparisons against independent soundings indicate that the EnSRF analysis produced a much stronger dry bias than the no data assimilation experiment. This strong dry bias is associated with the use of the simulated WV-BT from the prior mean during the EnSRF analysis step. A stochastic variant of the ensemble Kalman filter (NoMeanSF) is proposed. The NoMeanSF algorithm was able to assimilate the WV-BT without causing such a strong dry bias and the quality of the analyses’ horizontal cloud pattern is similar to EnSRF’s analyses. Finally, deterministic forecasts initiated from the NoMeanSF analyses possess better horizontal cloud patterns above 500 km than those of the EnSRF. These results suggest that it might be better to assimilate all-sky WV-BT through the NoMeanSF algorithm than EnSRF algorithm.

Chan, Man-Yau↗

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MODELING THE SUN’S SMALL-SCALE GLOBAL PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC FIELD

We present a new model for the Sun’s global photospheric magnetic field during a deep minimum of activity, in which no active regions emerge. The emergence and subsequent evolution of small-scale magnetic features across the full solar surface is simulated, subject to the influence of a global supergranular flow pattern. Visually, the resulting simulated magnetograms reproduce the typical structure and scale observed in quiet Sun magnetograms. Quantitatively, the simulation quickly reaches a steady state, resulting in a mean field and flux distribution that are in good agreement with those determined from observations. A potential coronal magnetic field is extrapolated from the simulated full Sun magnetograms to consider the implications of such a quiet photospheric magnetic field on the corona and inner heliosphere. The bulk of the coronal magnetic field closes very low down, in short connections between small-scale features in the simulated magnetic network. Just 0.1% of the photospheric magnetic flux is found to be open at 2.5 R {sub ⊙}, around 10–100 times less than that determined for typical Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager synoptic map observations. If such conditions were to exist on the Sun, this would lead to a significantly weaker interplanetary magnetic field than is currently observed, and hence a much higher cosmic ray flux at Earth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Urban Observatory: A Multi-Modal Imaging Platform for the Study of Dynamics in Complex Urban Systems

We describe an “Urban Observatory” facility designed for the study of complex urban systems via persistent, synoptic, and granular imaging of dynamical processes in cities. An initial deployment of the facility has been demonstrated in New York City and consists of a suite of imaging systems—both broadband and hyperspectral—sensitive to wavelengths from the visible (∼400 nm) to the infrared (∼13 micron) operating at cadences of ∼0.01–30 Hz (characteristically ∼0.1 Hz). Much like an astronomical survey, the facility generates a large imaging catalog from which we have extracted observables (e.g., time-dependent brightnesses, spectra, temperatures, chemical species, etc.), collecting them in a parallel source catalog. We have demonstrated that, in addition to the urban science of cities as systems, these data are applicable to a myriad of domain-specific scientific inquiries related to urban functioning including energy consumption and end use, environmental impacts of cities, and patterns of life and public health. We show that an Urban Observatory facility of this type has the potential to improve both a city’s operations and the quality of life of its inhabitants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of Greenhouse Gas Changes across Summer Frontal Boundaries in the Eastern United States

Our knowledge about synoptic-scale variations of atmospheric CO2 produced by interactions between mid-latitude cyclones and regional-scale surface fluxes remains limited by scarcity of observations. We synthesize observations of greenhouse gases (GHG) with respect to frontal passages to understand how GHG distributions change vertically and horizontally during a synoptic event. We use the airborne in-situ measurements of GHGs collected during the first Atmospheric Carbon and Transport–America (ACT) summer field campaign across three regions of the eastern US. We find that frontal structures are consistently and clearly associated with spatially coherent, significant changes in GHG composition. Warm sector CO2 mole fractions (henceforth, [CO2]) are significantly higher than those in the cold sector. The CO2 frontal differences (5-30 ppm) are largest in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) with smaller differences (3-5 ppm) in the free troposphere (FT). Bands of elevated CO2 (5-20 ppm enhancement compared to warm-sector mean [CO2]) repeatedly occurred in the ABL adjacent to the frontal boundary. Analyses of 84 vertical profiles reveal higher [CO2] in the FT than in the ABL in the cold-sector, the opposite pattern in the warm-sector. Average ABL-to-FT [CO2] differences are 12 ppm and -6 ppm in the warm and cold sectors, respectively. The same analysis for CH4 shows higher [CH4] in the ABL than in the FT in both warm and cold sectors with at least 30-ppb higher ABL-to-FT [CH4] differences in the warm-sector than in the cold-sector. The observational analyses presented here define new metrics for model evaluation of GHG transport.

Pal, Sandip↗

Wave Events: Climatology, Trends, and Relationship to Northern Hemisphere Winter Blocking and Weather Extremes

Diagnostics of finite-amplitude local wave activity (LWA) are applied to the 500-hPa geopotential height field to diagnose persistent synoptic weather events of anomalously large wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere. By considering the cyclonic and anticyclonic components of LWA separately, persistent weather systems associated with large-amplitude troughs and ridges are detected. While anticyclonic wave events are predominantly found over Europe and Alaska, cyclonic wave events usually occur over East Asia and northeastern Canada. Those preferred regions correspond to the location of planetary-scale ridges and troughs, which contribute, together with transient anomalies, to the formation of wave events. Although wave events are not blocking events per definition, they are typically associated with increased blocking in their vicinity. Their spatial relationship to blocking, however, varies depending on their cyclonic or anticyclonic nature and the type of wave-breaking signatures. Wave events are also shown to be accompanied by warm or cold temperature extremes, whose spatial pattern depends on the type of events, cyclonic or anticyclonic, and the sector affected. Trends in the frequency of wave events indicate that cyclonic wave events and the associated cold extremes affecting East Asia have become more frequent in recent decades and could be linked to recent trends toward La Niña–like conditions in the Pacific and trends toward the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol-induced changes in the vertical structure of precipitation: a perspective of TRMM precipitation radar

Our knowledge is still poor regarding the response of the precipitation vertical structure to aerosols, partly due to the ignorance of precipitation occurring at different spatial scales. A total of 6 years of collocated ground-based PM 10 and satellite-based (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, TRMM) radar data, along with ERA-Interim reanalysis, are used in this study to investigate the aerosol effects on three localized rain regimes (shallow, stratiform, and convective rain) over the Pearl River Delta region of China. A subjective analysis method is proposed to discriminate between the localized and synoptic-scale precipitations based on weather composite charts where daily averaged wind field at 850 hPa is overlaid with the geopotential height at 500 hPa. In general, average rain rate tends to be greater under polluted conditions than under clean conditions. But such potential aerosol effects are regime dependent: as the atmosphere becomes slightly polluted (PM 10 ≤38 µg m -3 ), the top 1 % radar reflectivity (Z) for all regimes initially increases, followed by continued increases and weak decreases for convective and stratiform/shallow rain regimes, respectively. As the atmosphere becomes much more polluted, such regime dependences of aerosol effects are more significant. From a perspective of the vertical Z structure, comparisons between polluted conditions (days with the highest third of PM 10 concentration) and clean conditions (days with the lowest third of PM 10 concentration) show that the convective rain regime exhibits a deeper and stronger Z pattern, whereas a much shallower and weaker Z pattern is observed for stratiform and shallow precipitation regimes. In particular, the top height of the 30 dBZ rain echo increases by ~29 % (~1.27 km) for the convective regime, but decreases by ~10.8 % (~0.47 km) for the stratiform regime. However, no noticeable changes are observed for the shallow precipitation regime. Impacts of meteorological factors are further studied on both rain top height (RTH) and the center of gravity of Z, including vertical velocity, vertical wind shear, convection available potential energy, and vertically integrated moisture flux divergence (MFD). The possible invigoration effect on convective precipitation seems dependent on wind shear, in good agreement with previous findings. Overall, the observed dependence of the precipitation vertical structure on ground-based PM 10 supports the notion of aerosol invigoration or suppression effect on cold or warm rain and adds new insights into the nature of the complex interactions between aerosol and various localized precipitation regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

OpenCRUMS USA: An Open Machine Learning Framework for Characterizing Variability in Aerosol Reanalysis Data

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have called for exploring how these techniques can be used for exploring patterns in large climate datasets. To that regard, the U.S. Department of Energy AI for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) supported a pilot initiative called the Open Classification of Regimes in the Southeast USA (OpenCRUMS USA) project to explore how AI can be used to characterize modes of spatial variability in large climate datasets. For this study, we focus on comparing two methods for characterizing the modes of spatial variability of surface aerosol concentration over the Houston region: empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and layerwise relevance propagation (LRP) applied to a convolutional neural network (CNN) classifier. We show that EOF analysis typically attributes spatial variability modes that span all of southeast Texas, prohibiting the attribution of spatial variability to localized regions. However, using LRP on the CNN classifier resolves the explanatory parameters at a finer spatial resolution than EOFs. This allows for the attribution of the spatial variability of surface aerosols to local regions of organic carbon which was not possible using EOFs. In addition, the LRP analysis also suggests that synoptic-scale transport of dust is most prevalent during anticyclonic and pretrough synoptic conditions as categorized by self-organizing maps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drivers and ecological impacts of a wildfire outbreak in the southern Appalachian Mountains after decades of fire exclusion

During one of the warmest and driest droughts of the last century, the southern Appalachian Mountains experienced a regional outbreak of over a dozen large wildfires in late fall of 2016. We provide a synthesis of long-term forest changes leading up to the 2016 wildfires, examine the climatic setting and patterns of burn severity in relationship to topography, and discuss the ecological and management implications of these and future fires. During the pre- and post-European settlement periods, frequent low- and mixed-severity wildfires interacted with complex topographic gradients and maintained heterogenous landscapes dominated by several species of oak (Quercus spp.), pine (Pinus spp.), and the American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Land-use changes associated with European settlement, loss of the American chestnut, and 20th century fire exclusion resulted in large scale shifts towards mesic, fire-intolerant species (i.e. mesophication). Wildfire activity began increasing in the early 1980s, but most fires in the region are small (<1,000 ha). In Fall of 2016, deciduous tree leaf fall occurred concurrently with a period of anomalously dry and warm weather, creating ideal conditions for fire ignition and spread. Thousands of ignitions across the region strained suppression resources and eight fires grew to greater than 5,000 ha. The 2016 fires were larger and burned more area than in the previous three decades combined. In one unique landscape setting, the Chimney Tops 2 Fire, a synoptic wind event drove extreme fire behavior and burned large, high-severity patches resulting in devastating effects in the wildland urban interface. However, immediate post-fire burn severity mosaics for other fires were composed primarily of low- (73 %) and moderate-severity (21 %) fire effects. High-severity fire comprised only 6 % of the area burned, and occurred mostly on steep upper slopes and ridges on south-facing aspects, reflecting the importance of bottom-up topographic drivers in this region. Although the fires will likely enhance biodiversity by restoring fire-dependent species and creating early seral habitat, invasions of non-native plant species, delayed mortality of mature pines and oaks, and rapid re-sprouting of pyrophyllic shrubs pose significant management challenges. Although similar large fire outbreaks may become more common under future climatic conditions, they are unlikely to reverse the effects of mesophication and significantly alter forest dynamics at broad spatial scales. Furthermore, the 2016 fires exposed the vulnerability of the region to wildfire during acute fall drought and demonstrate the potential ecological effects of future wildfires in mixed pine-hardwood landscapes of the southern Appalachians.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Little vertical and circumferential variations in stem xylem water Δ 2 H and Δ 18 O in three tree species

Vertical and circumferential patterns of xylem water isotope signatures in large trees are rarely characterized but may influence interpretation of water source investigations and soil/xylem water isotope offsets. Furthermore, to examine vertical and circumferential variation in xylem water δ 2 H and δ 18 O, we collected xylem tissue at 5 heights (0, 1, 4, 7 and 10 m) from three replicate trees of three species with contrasting xylem anatomy, two angiosperms (Liquidambar styraciflua and Quercus nigra) and one gymnosperm (Pinus taeda). Concurrently, we also determined δ 2 H and δ 18 O of groundwater, soil water, and recent precipitation. On a different day, we collected circumferential samples at 1 m from the same trees to test for sectorality effects. Water from stem and soil samples were cryogenically extracted and analyzed for δ 2 H and δ 18 O. Mean xylem water δ 2 H and δ 18 O were significantly different between species, both vertically and circumferentially. We did not find significant (p = 0.05) systematic variation in δ 2 H or δ 18 O with height. We found no significant evidence for sectorality effects on δ 2 H, δ 18 O. Variances of vertical synoptic xylem water δ 2 H or δ 18 O were similar between species, 7.2–10.4‰ for δ 2 H and 0.58–0.81‰ for δ 18 O. Circumferential variances were also similar between species, 4.0–6.0 for δ 2 H and 0.37–0.44 for δ 18 O. A mixing model showed that sweetgum, water oak and loblolly pine, were drawing most of their water from deep soil from 45 to 190 cm (84.7, 68.4 and 53.2%, respectively) however, soil water-excess values indicate δ 2 H fractionation effects on these estimates. Dual isotope mixing model evaluation with single and multiple sample configurations showed that source water estimates were not affected by within tree variability of xylem water signatures. Xylem water δ 2 H and δ 18 O variability with height or circumference, was 3.2 and 2.7 times less than between tree variation because of transient temporal and spatial processes and is, therefore, not likely to affect interpretations of water sourcing in these three species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol meteorology of Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS southwest monsoon intensive study – Part 2: Philippine receptor observations of fine-scale aerosol behavior

The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operations period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August–September 2012 biomass burning season. Data included were observations aboard the M/Y Vasco , dispatched to the Palawan Archipelago and Sulu Sea of the Philippines for September 2012. At these locations, the Vasco observed MC smoke and pollution entering the southwest monsoon (SWM) monsoonal trough. Here we describe the research cruise findings and the finer-scale aerosol meteorology of this convectively active region. This 2012 cruise complemented a 2-week cruise in 2011 and was generally consistent with previous findings in terms of how smoke emission and transport related to monsoonal flows, tropical cyclones (TC), and the covariance between smoke transport events and the atmosphere's thermodynamic structure. Biomass burning plumes were usually mixed with significant amounts of anthropogenic pollution. Also key to aerosol behavior were squall lines and cold pools propagating across the South China Sea (SCS) and scavenging aerosol particles in their path. However, the 2012 cruise showed much higher modulation in aerosol frequency than its 2011 counterpart. Whereas in 2011 large synoptic-scale aerosol events transported high concentrations of smoke into the Philippines over days, in 2012 measured aerosol events exhibited a much shorter-term variation, sometimes only 3$-$12 h. Strong monsoonal flow reversals were also experienced in 2012. Nucleation events in cleaner and polluted conditions, as well as in urban plumes, were observed. Perhaps most interestingly, several cases of squall lines preceding major aerosol events were observed, as opposed to 2011 observations where these lines largely scavenged aerosol particles from the marine boundary layer. Combined, these observations indicate pockets of high and low particle counts that are not uncommon in the region. These perturbations are difficult to observe by satellite and very difficult to model. Indeed, the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) simulations captured longer period aerosol events quite well but largely failed to capture the timing of high-frequency phenomena. Ultimately, the research findings of these cruises demonstrate the real world challenges of satellite-based missions, significant aerosol life cycle questions such as those the future Aerosol/Clouds/Ecosystems (ACE) will investigate, and the importance of small-scale phenomena such as sea breezes, squall lines, and nucleation events embedded within SWM patterns in dominating aerosol life cycle and potential relationships to clouds.

aerosols↗

Reconstruction of Central European daily weather types back to 1763

Weather type classifications (WTCs) are a simple tool to analyse variations in weather patterns. Long series of WTCs could be used to address decadal changes in weather as a basis for studying changes in variability or extremes or for addressing contributions of sea-surface temperature or external forcings using climate models. However, there is no long series of daily objective weather types (WTs). A new method (Shortest Mahalanobis Distance, SMD) using daily European weather data is developed to reconstruct WTCs back in time. Here the SMD method is applied on the Cluster Analysis of Principal Components (CAP9) classification used by MeteoSwiss. The CAP9 daily WT time series (computed with ERA-40) is used as reference over the 1958–1998 period. Daily data (temperature, mean sea level pressure and pressure tendency) from 13 European stations covering the period 1763–2009 are used for the reconstruction. The reference CAP9 is reduced from nine to seven types so the new daily WTC is called CAP7. As an assessment, CAP7 is compared to the original classification CAP9 and to the same WTs computed with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR and 20CRv2c). Over the reference period up to 90% of all the daily WTs can be correctly reproduced in the new WTC compared to the original series, with higher reliability in winter than in summer. In addition, the reliability of the classification is increasing from 1763 onward. The annual occurrence of each type reveals some trends, mostly a decrease in the number of cyclonic days and an increase of cyclonic days.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗