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At least 91 records · Page 5

A matched filter method for ground-based sub-noise detection of terrestrial extrasolar planets in eclipsing binaries: application to CM Draconis

The photometric detection of extrasolar planets by transits in eclipsing binary systems can be significantly improved by cross-correlating the observational light curves with synthetic models of possible planetary transit features, essentially a matched filter approach. We demonstrate the utility and application of this transit detection algorithm for ground-based detections of terrestrial-sized (Earth-to-Neptune radii) extrasolar planets in the dwarf M-star eclipsing binary system CM Draconis. Preliminary photometric observational data of this system demonstrate that the observational noise is well characterized as white and Gaussian at the observational time steps required for precision photometric measurements. Depending on planet formation scenarios, terrestrial-sized planets may form quite close to this low-luminosity system. We demonstrate, for example, that planets as small as 1.4 Earth radii with periods on the order of a few months in the CM Draconis system could be detected at the 99.9% confidence level in less than a year using 1-m class telescopes from the ground. This result contradicts commonly held assumptions limiting present ground-based efforts to, at best, detections of gas giant planets after several years of observation. This method can be readily extended to a number of other larger star systems with the utilization of larger telescopes and longer observing times. Its extension to spacecraft observations should also allow the determination of the presence of terrestrial-sized planets in nearly 100 other known eclipsing binary systems.

NASA Discipline Number 52-10↗

Solar Rossby Wave 'Hills' Identified As Supergranules

We explore the nature of 'hills' observed on the solar surface which had previously been attributed to Rossby waves. We investigate the sol ar hills phenomenon by analyzing the output from a synthetic model ba sed solely on the observed solar photospheric convection spectrum. We show that the characteristics of these hills can be explained by the corrugation of the surface produced by the radial flows of the conve ction. The hills in our simulations are dominated by supergranules, a well-known component of solar convection. Rossby waves have been predicted to exist within the Sun and may play an important role in the d ynamics of the solar interior, including the Sun's differential rotat ion and magnetic dynamo. Our study suggests, however, that the hills observed at the solar limb do not confirm the existence of solar Ross by waves.

Williams, P. E.↗

The Origins of Transmembrane Ion Channels

Even though membrane proteins that mediate transport of ions and small molecules across cell walls are among the largest and least understood biopolymers in contemporary cells, it is still possible to shed light on their origins and early evolution. The central observation is that transmembrane portions of most ion channels are simply bundles of -helices. By combining results of experimental and computer simulation studies on synthetic models and natural channels, mostly of non-genomic origin, we show that the emergence of -helical channels was protobiologically plausible, and did not require highly specific amino acid sequences. Despite their simple structure, such channels could possess properties that, at the first sight, appear to require markedly larger complexity. Specifically, we explain how the antiamoebin channels, which are made of identical helices, 16 amino acids in length, achieve efficiency comparable to that of highly evolved channels. We further show that antiamoebin channels are extremely flexible, compared to modern, genetically coded channels. On the basis of our results, we propose that channels evolved further towards high structural complexity because they needed to acquire stable rigid structures and mechanisms for precise regulation rather than improve efficiency. In general, even though architectures of membrane proteins are not nearly as diverse as those of water-soluble proteins, they are sufficiently flexible to adapt readily to the functional demands arising during evolution.

Pohorille, Andrew↗

Developing Probabilistic Safety Performance Margins for Unknown and Underappreciated Risks

Probabilistic safety requirements currently formulated or proposed for space systems, nuclear reactor systems, nuclear weapon systems, and other types of systems that have a low-probability potential for high-consequence accidents depend on showing that the probability of such accidents is below a specified safety threshold or goal. Verification of compliance depends heavily upon synthetic modeling techniques such as PRA. To determine whether or not a system meets its probabilistic requirements, it is necessary to consider whether there are significant risks that are not fully considered in the PRA either because they are not known at the time or because their importance is not fully understood. The ultimate objective is to establish a reasonable margin to account for the difference between known risks and actual risks in attempting to validate compliance with a probabilistic safety threshold or goal. In this paper, we examine data accumulated over the past 60 years from the space program, from nuclear reactor experience, from aircraft systems, and from human reliability experience to formulate guidelines for estimating probabilistic margins to account for risks that are initially unknown or underappreciated. The formulation includes a review of the safety literature to identify the principal causes of such risks.

Safety Performance Margin↗

Full-wave model for the lower hybrid wave electric field vector with synthetic turbulence on Alcator C-Mod

The effects of synthetic turbulence on lower hybrid (LH) wave field magnitude and polarization are studied on Alcator C-Mod. Three synthetic turbulence models are evaluated to assess the impact of filaments, holes, and periodic fluctuations on the LH wave electric fields. For all three cases, the synthetic turbulence can greatly impact the LH wave magnitude and polarization. Back scattering, interference and edge/SOL absorption of the LH wave is observed. This impact is shown to depend on the wavelength and amplitude of the fluctuations. The strongest effect appears for fluctuations at high amplitudes and wavelengths comparable to the LH wavelength. This synthetic turbulence model can be used as inputs into a synthetic diagnostic to calculate the lower hybrid wave field magnitude and direction measured by dynamic Stark effect spectroscopy. It will be shown that fluctuations at these high amplitudes and wavelengths may explain the experimentally measured results. Here, the effect of fluctuations on modifying LH polarization are also shown to be anti-correlated with SOL power losses, similar to recently observed experimental trends on Alcator C-Mod. These SOL losses may have detrimental impact on LHCD efficiency.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Backus Effect on a Perpendicular Errors in Harmonic Models of Real vs. Synthetic Data

Measurements of geomagnetic scalar intensity on a thin spherical shell alone are not enough to separate internal from external source fields; moreover, such scalar data are not enough for accurate modeling of the vector field from internal sources because of unmodeled fields and small data errors. Spherical harmonic models of the geomagnetic potential fitted to scalar data alone therefore suffer from well-understood Backus effect and perpendicular errors. Curiously, errors in some models of simulated 'data' are very much less than those in models of real data. We analyze select Magsat vector and scalar measurements separately to illustrate Backus effect and perpendicular errors in models of real scalar data. By using a model to synthesize 'data' at the observation points, and by adding various types of 'noise', we illustrate such errors in models of synthetic 'data'. Perpendicular errors prove quite sensitive to the maximum degree in the spherical harmonic expansion of the potential field model fitted to the scalar data. Small errors in models of synthetic 'data' are found to be an artifact of matched truncation levels. For example, consider scalar synthetic 'data' computed from a degree 14 model. A degree 14 model fitted to such synthetic 'data' yields negligible error, but amplifies 4 nT (rmss) added noise into a 60 nT error (rmss); however, a degree 12 model fitted to the noisy 'data' suffers a 492 nT error (rmms through degree 12). Geomagnetic measurements remain unaware of model truncation, so the small errors indicated by some simulations cannot be realized in practice. Errors in models fitted to scalar data alone approach 1000 nT (rmss) and several thousand nT (maximum).

Voorhies, C. V.↗

Detecting Large Explosions With Machine Learning Models Trained on Synthetic Infrasound Data

Explosions produce low-frequency acoustic (infrasound) waves capable of propagating globally, but the spatio-temporal variability of the atmosphere makes detecting events difficult. Machine learning (ML) is well-suited to identify the subtle and nonlinear patterns in explosion infrasound signals, but a previous lack of ground-truth data inhibited training of generalized models. We introduce a physics-based method that propagates infrasound sources through realistic atmospheres to create 28,000 synthetic events, which are used to train ML classifiers. A simple artificial neural network and modern temporal convolutional network discriminate synthetic events from background noise with >90% accuracy and, more importantly, successfully identify the majority of real-world explosion signals recorded during the Humming Road Runner experiment. ML models trained entirely on physics-based synthetics advance explosion detection capabilities and make ML more viable to related fields lacking training data.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Random forest models accurately classify synthetic opioids using high-dimensionality mass spectrometry datasets

Detection of novel threat agents presents several challenges, a principle one being the development of untargeted methods to screen an increasing number of threat chemicals whose exact structures are unknown. With the use of Machine Learning (ML) tools, we can guide the development of analytical methods for broad-spectrum detection of unbounded threat chemical families in complex mixtures. Toward this goal, we used nominal mass and high-resolution mass spectrometry data for hundreds of synthetic opioids and non-opioid compounds. We tested two ML techniques, logistic regression and random forest, to develop models towards a practical, implementable method for opioid detection. We found that of these tested ML methods, random forest models resulted in the highest validation accuracy (95+%) for both nominal mass and high-resolution classification of opioids versus non-opioids, with low false positive and false negative rates. The RF models were then used to successfully predict the classification of 10 compounds—five opioids and five non-opioids not part of the training and validation analysis. This application of ML is a critical step towards the development of field-deployable nominal mass spectrometers with ML-driven analyses for classification of emergent threats.

Chemistry↗

Random forest models accurately classify synthetic opioids using high-dimensionality mass spectrometry datasets

Detection of novel threat agents presents several challenges, a principle one being the development of untargeted methods to screen an increasing number of threat chemicals whose exact structures are unknown. With the use of Machine Learning (ML) tools, we can guide the development of analytical methods for broad-spectrum detection of unbounded threat chemical families in complex mixtures. Toward this goal, we used nominal mass and high-resolution mass spectrometry data for hundreds of synthetic opioids and non-opioid compounds. We tested two ML techniques, logistic regression and random forest, to develop models towards a practical, implementable method for opioid detection. We found that of these tested ML methods, random forest models resulted in the highest validation accuracy (95+%) for both nominal mass and high-resolution classification of opioids versus non-opioids, with low false positive and false negative rates. The RF models were then used to successfully predict the classification of 10 compounds—five opioids and five non-opioids not part of the training and validation analysis. This application of ML is a critical step towards the development of field-deployable nominal mass spectrometers with ML-driven analyses for classification of emergent threats.

Arasteh, Kourosh [Lawrence Livermore National Labo↗

Time-Resolved X-ray Emission Spectroscopy and Synthetic High-Spin Model Complexes Resolve Ambiguities in Excited-State Assignments of Transition-Metal Chromophores: A Case Study of Fe-Amido Complexes

To fully harness the potential of abundant metal coordination complex photosensitizers, a detailed understanding of the molecular properties that dictate and control the electronic excited-state population dynamics initiated by light absorption is critical. In the absence of detectable luminescence, optical transient absorption (TA) spectroscopy is the most widely employed method for interpreting electron redistribution in such excited states, particularly for those with a charge-transfer character. The assignment of excited-state TA spectral features often relies on spectroelectrochemical measurements, where the transient absorption spectrum generated by a metal-to-ligand charge-transfer (MLCT) electronic excited state, for instance, can be approximated using steady-state spectra generated by electrochemical ligand reduction and metal oxidation and accounting for the loss of absorptions by the electronic ground state. However, the reliability of this approach can be clouded when multiple electronic configurations have similar optical signatures. Using a case study of Fe(II) complexes supported by benzannulated diarylamido ligands, we highlight an example of such an ambiguity and show how time-resolved X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) measurements can reliably assign excited states from the perspective of the metal, particularly in conjunction with accurate synthetic models of ligand-field electronic excited states, leading to a reinterpretation of the long-lived excited state as a ligand-field metal-centered quintet state. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the XES data on the long-lived excited state is presented, along with a discussion of the ultrafast dynamics following the photoexcitation of low-spin Fe(II)-N amido complexes using a high-spin ground-state analogue as a spectral model for the 5 T 2 excited state.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Synthetic residential load models for smart city energy management simulations

The ability to control tens of thousands of residential electricity customers in a coordinated manner has the potential to enact system-wide electric load changes, such as reduce congestion and peak demand, among other benefits. To quantify the potential benefits of demand-side management and other power system simulation studies (e.g. home energy management, large-scale residential demand response), synthetic load datasets that accurately characterize the system load are required. This study designs a combined top-down and bottom-up approach for modelling individual residential customers and their individual electric assets, each possessing their own characteristics, using time-varying queueing models. The aggregation of all customer loads created by the queueing models represents a known city-sized load curve to be used in simulation studies. The three presented residential queueing load models use only publicly available data. An open-source Python tool to allow researchers to generate residential load data for their studies is also provided. The simulation results presented consider the ComEd region (utility company from Chicago, IL) and demonstrate the characteristics of the three proposed residential queueing load models, the impact of the choice of model parameters, and scalability performance of the Python tool.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An airfoil-based synthetic actuator disk model for wind turbine aerodynamic and structural analysis

Here, this study introduces an airfoil-based refinement technique to enhance the Actuator Disk Model (ADM) for improved wind turbine aerodynamic load prediction and structural simulation in conjunction with Large Eddy Simulations of the wind flow. While ADM offers higher computational efficiency than the more detailed but resource-intensive Actuator Line Model (ALM), it traditionally lacks the resolution needed to capture the localized blade forces accurately. To address this limitation, we introduce a refinement technique that uses airfoil-specific data and employs interpolation-based grid point refinement, achieving ALM-comparable accuracy while preserving ADM's efficiency. Unlike conventional ADM that provides only rotor-disk averaged forces, our synthetic method tracks transient aerodynamic load variations over multiple blade revolutions, allowing us to calculate the distributions of maximum and minimum loads during typical cycles. Applied to the NREL 5 MW reference turbine, our enhanced ADM accurately predicts key aerodynamic parameters (angle of attack, axial velocity, lift, drag, axial and tangential forces along the blades) as well as structural responses (blade tip deflection, maximum stress, and stress concentration). Our results show that the tip deflection ranges from 2.33m (3.69 % of blade length) to 4.28m (6.79 %), with maximum stress concentration occurring near the blade root. This research demonstrates that a refined synthetic ADM approach can serve as a computationally efficient alternative for both aerodynamic analysis and structural simulation of wind turbine blades subjected to realistic wind fields.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Multimodal imaging of oil-in-water bilgewater emulsion and biofilms

Bilgewater emulsions, consisting of oil and surfactant mixtures in water, affect many aquatic species. Thus development of methods and techniques to treat or mitigate the formation and undesired consequences of shipboard emulsions are urgently needed. This work presents new results of the evolution of the bilgewaer chemical and physical properties using in situ imaging. A Navy O/W emulsion consisting of three oils and a detergent mixture was used as the synthetic bilgewater model [1, 2]. Synthetic oil-in-water (O/W) emulsion droplets were seled in a vacuum compatible microfluidic sample holder and imaged using a suite of tools including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS), confocal laser scanning microscopy, and optical microscopy, highlighting the advantage of multiscale analysis and its applications in waste reduction and treatment in the environment. The transferrable and vacuum compatible microfluidic interface, System for Analysis at the Liquid Vacuum Interface (SALVI), was used in this study. SALVI enabled surface analysis of liquids and liquid-solid interactions using ToF-SIMS and SEM [3, 4]. Its detection window is an aperture of 2 ?m in diameter open to vacuum, permitting direct detection of the liquid surface. Liquid is withheld by surface tension within the aperture. The interface is composed of a silicon nitride membrane and polydimethylsiloxane microchannel [3, 4]. A variety of samples including complex liquid mixtures, ionic liquids, single mammalian cells, live biofilms, and solid-electrolyte interface have been analyzed using in situ imaging [5, 6]. The feasibility of using SALVI for in situ SEM imaging of nanoparticles and colloids in liquid was recently demonstrated [7]. This paper shows new findings of multimodal imaging and analysis of synthesized emulsion particles in water. Figure 1 depicts a schematic of multimodal in situ imaging of bilgewater emulsion using SEM and ToF-SIMS. Furthermore, we study the interactions of microbes and bilgewater emulsion. Microbes play an important role in the ocean. We hypothesize that microbes release organics that can act as surfactants that affect bilgewater formation or weakening. We present the first systematic study of emulsions and biofilms and investigate the effects of biofilms on bilgewater emulsions. Pseudomonas was selected as a model strain. Biofilms were cultured in a microchannel to allow culture [8]. Once a thick layer of biofilms was formed, the medium solution was changed to a mixture consisting of 50 % bilgewater emulsion. Dispersed biofilms were collected at 24 hrs. and 48 hrs. after emulsions were introduced into the channel. Bilgewater emulsions, biofilms, and mixtures of bilgewater emulsions and biofilms were analyzed using multiple in situ and ex situ techniques as described earlier. Our findings indicate that biofilms change the chemical makeup of the emulsion surface compositions and emulsion droplet size distribution, confirming the hypothesis that extracellular polymeric substance (EPS) related components released from biofilms can function as surfactants and change the oil-in-water interfaces.

bilgewater, multimodal imaging, biofilms↗

Model assessment of synthetic jets for turbulent combustion experiments

Abstract Understanding turbulent premixed flames is essential to predict and optimize advanced combustion strategies, but critical capability gaps exist for collecting and validating measurements such as turbulent flame speed. Here, we evaluate synthetic jets as a new, promising turbulence generation device for constant-volume combustion chambers, quantitatively assessing turbulence intensity and spatial uniformity in a hypothetical 4,189-cm 3 vessel for various premixture conditions. Graphic Abstract

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change

Several pathways for how climate change may influence the U.S. coastal hurricane risk have been proposed, but the physical mechanisms and possible connections between various pathways remain unclear. Here, future projections of hurricane activity (1980–2100), downscaled from multiple climate models using a synthetic hurricane model, show an enhanced hurricane frequency for the Gulf and lower East coast regions. The increase in coastal hurricane frequency is driven primarily by changes in steering flow, which can be attributed to the development of an upper-level cyclonic circulation over the western Atlantic. The latter is part of the baroclinic stationary Rossby waves forced mainly by increased diabatic heating in the eastern tropical Pacific, a robust signal across the multimodel ensemble. Last, these heating changes also play a key role in decreasing wind shear near the U.S. coast, further aggravating coastal hurricane risk enhanced by the physically connected steering flow changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

3D Multiresolution Velocity Model Fusion with Probability Graphical Models

ABSTRACT The variability in spatial resolution of seismic velocity models obtained via tomographic methodologies is attributed to many factors, including inversion strategies, ray-path coverage, and data integrity. Integration of such models, with distinct resolutions, is crucial during the refinement of community models, thereby enhancing the precision of ground-motion simulations. Toward this goal, we introduce the probability graphical model (PGM), combining velocity models with heterogeneous resolutions and nonuniform data point distributions. The PGM integrates data relations across varying resolution subdomains, enhancing detail within low-resolution (LR) domains by utilizing information and prior knowledge from high-resolution (HR) subdomains through a maximum posterior problem. Assessment of efficacy, utilizing both 2D and 3D velocity models—consisting of synthetic checkerboard models and a fault-zone model from Ridgecrest, California—demonstrates noteworthy improvements in accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art fusion techniques. Specifically, we find reductions of 30% and 44% in computed travel-time residuals for 2D and 3D models, respectively, as compared to conventional smoothing techniques. Unlike conventional methods, the PGM’s adaptive weight selection facilitates preserving and learning details from complex, nonuniform HR models and applies the enhancements to the LR background domain.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗