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A Future State for NASA Laboratories - Working in the 21st Century

The name "21 st Century Laboratory" is an emerging concept of how NASA (and the world) will conduct research in the very near future. Our approach is to carefully plan for significant technological changes in products, organization, and society. The NASA mission can be the beneficiary of these changes, provided the Agency prepares for the role of 21st Century laboratories in research and technology development and its deployment in this new age. It has been clear for some time now that the technology revolutions, technology "mega-trends" that we are in the midst of now, all have a common element centered around advanced computational modeling of small scale physics. Whether it is nano technology, bio technology or advanced computational technology, all of these megatrends are converging on science at the very small scale where it is profoundly important to consider the quantum effects at play with physics at that scale. Whether it is the bio-technology creation of "nanites" designed to mimic our immune system or the creation of nanoscale infotechnology devices, allowing an order of magnitude increase in computational capability, all involve quantum physics that serves as the heart of these revolutionary changes.

Kegelman, Jerome T.↗

Evolving Relationship between Humans and Machines

Traditional design typically consists of a master-servant relationship between humans and machines where the human directly controls what the machine will do and when it will do it through an interface. The current archetypical path encompasses moving from informational displays, where the human directly controls the machine based on information displayed, to automation where the human still directs the machine that then caries out the request using predefined set of instructions. Rapid pace of technological advancement makes it possible now, or in a near future, for machines to reach a level of intelligence that enables for systems to execute tasks/missions without predefined specific instructions; thus attaining a status of non- human autonomous agents. Now the course of human-machine interface technology changes from an information system to automation to an autonomous agent—essentially moving from a master-servant relationship to teammates. This paper discusses these changing relationships and challenges associated with progressing from a master-servant relationship with technology to more of an equal teammate. Examples of this progression includes current work encompassing rotorcraft noise minimization for urban air mobility.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repair Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, understanding how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes is vital for future mission planning. Past work has been done using historical International Space Station (ISS) data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available datasets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat (SH), and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA ISS maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases: the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS). Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair time for each failure and repair event. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to ensure a significant sample size for each class and accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time to Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. The authors applied these modeling methods to a case study of a crewed mission to the planned SH and produced expected corrective maintenance crew time distributions. The results produced an expected corrective maintenance crew time at over 24 hours per mission, and a maintenance crew time distribution that reflects the importance of planning for sufficient maintenance requirements each mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗

The NASA Advanced Space Power Systems Project

The goal of the NASA Advanced Space Power Systems Project is to develop advanced, game changing technologies that will provide future NASA space exploration missions with safe, reliable, light weight and compact power generation and energy storage systems. The development effort is focused on maturing the technologies from a technology readiness level of approximately 23 to approximately 56 as defined in the NASA Procedural Requirement 7123.1B. Currently, the project is working on two critical technology areas: High specific energy batteries, and regenerative fuel cell systems with passive fluid management. Examples of target applications for these technologies are: extending the duration of extravehicular activities (EVA) with high specific energy and energy density batteries; providing reliable, long-life power for rovers with passive fuel cell and regenerative fuel cell systems that enable reduced system complexity. Recent results from the high energy battery and regenerative fuel cell technology development efforts will be presented. The technical approach, the key performance parameters and the technical results achieved to date in each of these new elements will be included. The Advanced Space Power Systems Project is part of the Game Changing Development Program under NASAs Space Technology Mission Directorate.

batteries↗

Students Solving Problems for ISS and Beyond: Inspiring the Next-Generation

Students Solving Problems for ISS and Beyond: Inspiring the Next-Generation Session Title: Students Solving Problems for ISS and Beyond: Inspiring the Next-Generation Session Description: NASA High school students United with NASA to Create Hardware (HUNCH) mission is to empower and inspire students through a Project-Based Learning program where 7-12 grade students learn 21st century skills and can launch their careers through participation in the design and fabrication of real-world valued products for NASA. With six different tracks consisting of Design & Prototype, Culinary Challenge, Softgoods, Precision Machining, Software, and Video Challenge, students are given the opportunity to create solutions for the International Space Station (ISS), the Moon, and beyond. Many projects are requested by the Crew to help ease living conditions, giving students the opportunity to make an impact on the lives of Astronauts. Other projects come directly from NASA and its partners. Join our session to learn how NASA is working with teachers across the country to mentor the next generation of scientists and engineers to solve some of NASA’s greatest challenges. Learning Outcomes: 1. Describe the NASA HUNCH Program, including the program objectives, goals, and strategic partnerships for middle school and high school outreach and advocacy efforts. 2. Identify the innovative strategies NASA is using to work with middle and high school students to solve real-world problems 3. Use the knowledge gained to inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers Session Track: Advocacy & Outreach Specialized Focus Area: Women in Government and Military Learning Level: Foundational Session Format: Listen & Learn Speaker Qualifications: 1. Deboshri Sadhukhan • Current Job Title: Deputy Project Manager • Topic Experience (years of experience related to proposed topic): 1-5 years • Biography: Deboshri Sadhukhan is an engineer for NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). She has worked on numerous projects — from International Space Station (ISS) fluid technologies, to Orion European Service Module propulsion, to planetary science missions and other game-changing technologies. Her roles have ranged from Project Manager to System Safety Lead. She currently serves as a GRC Regional Mentor for the High school students United with NASA to Create Hardware (HUNCH) program. She also serves as Deputy Project Manager for an ISS payload and Safety & Mission Assurance Lead for a Radioisotope Power Systems project. In these roles, she oversees each phase of a project from beginning to end and provides leadership to increase the reliability, maintainability and system safety of hardware and personnel throughout the system life cycle. She holds a Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering from The University of Akron. 2. Nancy Hall • Current Job Title: Project Manager • Topic Experience: 20+ years • Biography: Nancy Rabel Hall earned a B.S. degree in Space Sciences from Florida Institute of Technology and a M.S. degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Toledo. She has been at NASA Glenn for over 30 years. She has led several International Space Station experiments that studied how the behavior of fluids and fluid systems behave differently in microgravity as compared to here on Earth. She is also the High school students United with NASA to Create Hardware (HUNCH) project manager, a program that allows students to design and fabricate hardware and softgoods for NASA as well as participate in a culinary and video challenge. She enjoys talking to the public and students about the work being done at NASA as well as showing students how math and science can be fun. She is an amateur radio operator, enjoys playing golf, and reading science fiction and fantasy books.

HUNCH↗

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Challenges, Opportunities, and AgMIP Frameworks for Foresight

Agricultural systems are currently undergoing rapid shifts owing to socioeconomic development, technological change, population growth, economic opportunity, evolving demand for commodities, and the need for sustainability amid global environmental change. It is not sufficient to maintain current harvest levels; rather, there is a need to rapidly increase production in light of a population growing to nearly 10 billion by mid-century and to more than 11 billion by 2100 (FAO, 2016; UN, 2016; Popkin et al., 2012). Current and future agricultural systems are additionally burdened by human-caused climate change, the result of accumulating greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, ecological destruction, and land use changes that have altered the chemical composition of Earth’s atmosphere and trapped energy in the Earth system (IPCC, 2013; Porter et al., 2014). This increased energy has already raised average surface temperatures by approximately 1 degree Centigrade (GISTEMP Team, 2017; Hansen et al., 2010), leading early on to the term “global warming,” but this phenomenon is now more accurately referred to as “climate change” because it also modifies atmospheric circulation, adjusts regional and seasonal precipitation patterns, and shifts the distribution and characteristics of extreme events (Bindoff et al., 2013; Collins et al., 2013). Food and health systems face increasing risk owing to progressive climate change now manifesting itself as more frequent, severe extreme weather events—heat waves, droughts, and floods (IPCC, 2013). Often without warning, weather-related shocks can have catastrophic and reverberating impacts on the increasingly exposed global food system—through production, processing, distribution, retail, disposal, and waste. Simultaneously, malnutrition and ill health are arising from lack of access to nutritious food, exacerbated in crises such as food price spikes or shortages. For some countries, particularly import-dependent low-income countries, weather shocks and price spikes can lead to social unrest, famine, and migration.

Ruane, Alex C.↗

Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET)

Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Technology (HEEET) project is based on the 3-D Woven TPS, an emerging innovative and game changing technology funded by SMD and STMD to fill the ablative TPS gap that exists currently for reaching the depths of Saturn and Venus. Woven TPS technology will address the challenges currently faced by the Venus, Saturn, and higher speed sample return mission Science community due to lack of availability of the only TPS, namely Carbon Phenolic and enable the Science community to move forward with proposals in this decade with Woven TPS. This presentation describes the approach in maturing the technology in the next three years enabling NF-4 mission proposers to address the challenges of Venus, Saturn or higher speed sample return missions.

TPS↗

NASA's Advanced TPS Materials and Technology Development: Multi-Functional Materials and Systems for Space Exploration

NASA's future missions will be more demanding. They require materials to be mass efficient, robust, multi-functional, scalable and able to be integrated with other subsystems to enable innovative missions to accomplish future science missions. Thermal protection systems and materials (TPSM) are critical for the robotic and human exploration of the solar system when it involves entry. TPSM is a single string system with no back-up. Mass efficiency and robustness are required. Integration of TPSM with the aeroshell is both a challenge and an opportunity. Since 2010, NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate has invested in innovative new materials and systems across a spectrum of game changing technologies. In this keynote address, we plan to highlight and present our successful approaches utilized in developing four different materials and system technologies that use innovative new manufacturing techniques to meet mission needs. 3-D weaving and felt manufacturing allowed us to successfully propose new ways of addressing TPSM challenges. In the 3-D MAT project, we developed and delivered a multi-functional TPS materials solution, in under three years that is an enabler for Lunar Capable Orion Spacecraft. Under the HEEET project, we are developing a robust heat-shield that can withstand extreme entry conditions, both thermally and mechanically, for entry at Venus, Saturn or higher speed sample return missions. The improved efficiency of HEEET allows science missions entry at much reduced G'loads enabling delicate science instruments to be used. The ADEPT concept is a foldable and deployable entry system and the critical component is a multi-functional fabric that is foldable and deployable and also functions as a mechanical aeroshell and a TPS. The fourth technology we will highlight involves felt to address integration challenges of rigid ablative system such as PICA that was used on MSL. The felt technology allows us to develop a compliant TPS for easy integration. The above four technology developments have focused on mission infusion as the success criteria. These technologies are in different stages of mission infusion. These innovations have led to new mission concepts to be proposed in the future. In our keynote address we will present approaches we have employed throughout the project to create the bridge to transition from low TRL to mission infusion and to overcome the traditional TRL valley of death.

TPS↗

The ISS Water Processor Catalytic Reactor as a Post Processor for Advanced Water Reclamation Systems

Advanced water processors being developed for NASA s Exploration Initiative rely on phase change technologies and/or biological processes as the primary means of water reclamation. As a result of the phase change, volatile compounds will also be transported into the distillate product stream. The catalytic reactor assembly used in the International Space Station (ISS) water processor assembly, referred to as Volatile Removal Assembly (VRA), has demonstrated high efficiency oxidation of many of these volatile contaminants, such as low molecular weight alcohols and acetic acid, and is considered a viable post treatment system for all advanced water processors. To support this investigation, two ersatz solutions were defined to be used for further evaluation of the VRA. The first solution was developed as part of an internal research and development project at Hamilton Sundstrand (HS) and is based primarily on ISS experience related to the development of the VRA. The second ersatz solution was defined by NASA in support of a study contract to Hamilton Sundstrand to evaluate the VRA as a potential post processor for the Cascade Distillation system being developed by Honeywell. This second ersatz solution contains several low molecular weight alcohols, organic acids, and several inorganic species. A range of residence times, oxygen concentrations and operating temperatures have been studied with both ersatz solutions to provide addition performance capability of the VRA catalyst.

Nalette, Tim↗

Improving Organizational Productivity in NASA

Recognizing that NASA has traditionally been in the forefront of technological change, the NASA Administrator challenged the Agency in 1982 to also become a leader in developing and applying advanced technology and management practices to increase productivity. One of the activities undertaken by the Agency to support this ambitious productivity goal was participation in a 2-year experimental action research project devoted to learning more about improving and assessing the performance of professional organizations. Participating with a dozen private sector organizations, NASA explored the usefulness of a productivity improvement process that addressed all aspects of organizational performance. This experience has given NASA valuable insight into the enhancement of professional productivity. More importantly, it has provided the Agency with a specific management approach that managers and supervisors can effectively use to emphasize and implement continuous improvement. This report documents the experiences of the five different NASA installations participating in the project, describes the improvement process that was applied and refined, and offers recommendations for expanded application of that process. Of particular interest is the conclusion that measuring white collar productivity may be possible, and at a minimum, the measurement process itself is beneficial to management. Volume I of the report provides a project overview, significant findings, and recommendations. Volume II presents individual case studies of the NASA pilot projects that were part of the action research effort.

Source record↗

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repairs Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, it will be necessary to understand how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes. Past work has been done using historical ISS data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available data sets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat, and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA International Space Station (ISS) maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases, the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS) respectively. Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. MDC provides a detailed catalog of failure events and an overview of the failure’s required maintenance and OPTimIS provides a description of crew activities and crew time durations dedicated to maintenance. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair times for each failure event. Data is also classified by the outcome of each repair event, whether the failed component was replaced or whether it was repaired in place. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to allow for a statistically significant sample size for each class and to provide accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗

The Near-Earth Orbital Debris Problem and the Challenges for Environment Remediation

The near-Earth space environment has been gradually polluted with orbital debris (OD) since the beginning of space activities 55 years ago. Although this problem has been known to the research community for decades, the public was, in general, unaware of the issue until the anti-satellite test conducted by China in 2007 and the collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in 2009. The latter also underlined the potential of an ongoing collision cascade effect (the "Kessler Syndrome") in the low Earth orbit (LEO, the region below 2000 km altitude). Recent modeling results have indicated that mitigation measures commonly adopted by the international space community will be insufficient to stabilize the LEO debris population. To better limit the OD population increase, more aggressive actions must be considered. There are three options for OD environment remediation-removal of large/massive intact objects to address the root cause of the OD population growth problem, removal of ~5-mm-to-1 cm debris to mitigate the main mission-ending threats for the majority of operational spacecraft, and prevention of major debris-generating collisions as a temporary means to slow down the OD population increase. The technology, engineering, and cost challenges to carry out any of these three options are monumental. It will require innovative ideas, game-changing technologies, and major collaborations at the international level to address the OD problem and preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

In-Space Recycler Technology Demonstration

In 2014, a 3D printer was installed and used successfully on the International Space Station (ISS), creating the first additively manufactured part in space. While additive manufacturing is a game changing technology for exploration missions, the process still requires raw feedstock material to fabricate parts. Without a recycling capability, a large supply of feedstock would need to be stored onboard, which negates the logistical benefits of these capabilities. Tethers Unlimited, Inc. (TUI), received a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) award to design and build the first In-space Recycler for demonstration aboard the ISS in 2017. To fully test this technology in microgravity, parts will be 3D printed, recycled into reusable filament, and then reprinted into new parts. Recycling scrap into printer filament is quite challenging in that a recycler must be able to handle a large variety of possible scrap configurations and densities. New challenges include: dealing with inevitable contamination of the scrap material, minimizing damage to the molecular structure of the plastic during reprocessing, managing a larger volume of hot liquid plastic, and exercising greater control over the cooling/resolidification of the material. TUI has developed an architecture that addresses these challenges by combining standard, proven technologies with novel, patented processes developed through this effort. Results show that the filament diameter achieved is more consistent than commercial filament, with only minimal degradation of material properties over recycling steps. In May 2016, TUI completed fabrication of a flight prototype, which will ultimately progress to the demonstration unit for the ISS as a testbed for future exploration missions. This capability will provide significant cost savings by reducing the launch mass and volume required for printer feedstock as well as reduce waste that must be stored or disposed.

Recycling↗

Impact of digital systems technology on man-vehicle systems research

The present study, based on a NASA technology assessment, examines the effect of new technologies on trends in crew-systems design and their implications from the vantage point of man-vehicle systems research. Those technologies that are most relevant to future trends in crew-systems design are considered along with problems associated with the introduction of rapidly changing technologies and systems concepts from a human-factors point of view. The technologies discussed include information processing, displays and controls, flight and propulsion control, flight and systems management, air traffic control, training and simulation, and flight and resource management. The historical evolution of cockpit systems design is used to illustrate past and possible future trends in man-vehicle systems research.

Bretoi, R. N.↗

Space Technology Mission Directorate - Game Changing Development Program - Vertical Solar Array Technology Project

The Vertical Solar Array Technology (VSAT) project is focused on the development of solar array technologies necessary for sustained presence on the lunar surface circa 2028. Existing solar array structures and deployment system technologies are designed for either zero-g or horizontal surface deployment. VSAT will explore vertical array deployment on extension masts of up to 10m in length in order to capture near continuous sun light at the lunar south pole.

GCD↗

Aura OMI observations of regional SO2 and NO2 pollution changes from 2005 to 2015

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA's Aura satellite has been providing global observations of the ozone layer and key atmospheric pollutant gases, such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2/ and sulfur dioxide (SO2/, since October 2004. The data products from the same instrument provide consistent spatial and temporal coverage and permit the study of anthropogenic and natural emissions on local-to-global scales. In this paper, we examine changes in SO2 and NO2 over some of the world's most polluted industrialized regions during the first decade of OMI observations. In terms of regional pollution changes, we see both upward and downward trends, sometimes in opposite directions for NO2 and SO2, for different study areas. The trends are, for the most part, associated with economic and/or technological changes in energy use, as well as regional regulatory policies. Over the eastern US, both NO2 and SO2 levels decreased dramatically from 2005 to 2015, by more than 40 and 80 %, respectively, as a result of both technological improvements and stricter regulations of emissions. OMI confirmed large reductions in SO2 over eastern Europe's largest coal-fired power plants after installation of flue gas desulfurization devices. The North China Plain has the world's most severe SO2 pollution, but a decreasing trend has been observed since 2011, with about a 50% reduction in 2012- 2015, due to an economic slowdown and government efforts to restrain emissions from the power and industrial sectors. In contrast, India's SO2 and NO2 levels from coal power plants and smelters are growing at a fast pace, increasing by more than 100 and 50 %, respectively, from 2005 to 2015. Several SO2 hot spots observed over the Persian Gulf are probably related to oil and gas operations and indicate a possible underestimation of emissions from these sources in bottom-up emission inventories. Overall, OMI observations have proved valuable in documenting rapid changes in air quality over different parts of the world during last decade. The baseline established during the first 11 years of OMI is indispensable for the interpretation of air quality measurements from current and future satellite atmospheric composition missions.

Pollution trends↗

Aura OMI Observations of Regional SO2 and NO2 Pollution Changes from 2005 to 2015

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA's Aura satellite has been providing global observations of the ozone layer and key atmospheric pollutant gases, such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), since October 2004. The data products from the same instrument provide consistent spatial and temporal coverage and permit the study of anthropogenic and natural emissions on local-to-global scales. In this paper, we examine changes in SO2 and NO2 over some of the world's most polluted industrialized regions during the first decade of OMI observations. In terms of regional pollution changes, we see both upward and downward trends, sometimes in opposite directions for NO2 and SO2, for different study areas. The trends are, for the most part, associated with economic and/or technological changes in energy use, as well as regional regulatory policies. Over the eastern US, both NO2 and SO2 levels decreased dramatically from 2005 to 2015, by more than 40 and 80 percent, respectively, as a result of both technological improvements and stricter regulations of emissions. OMI confirmed large reductions in SO2 over eastern Europe's largest coal-fired power plants after installation of flue gas desulfurization devices. The North China Plain has the world's most severe SO2 pollution, but a decreasing trend has been observed since 2011, with about a 50 percent reduction in 2012-2015, due to an economic slowdown and government efforts to restrain emissions from the power and industrial sectors. In contrast, India's SO2 and NO2 levels from coal power plants and smelters are growing at a fast pace, increasing by more than 100 and 50 percent, respectively, from 2005 to 2015. Several SO2 hot spots observed over the Persian Gulf are probably related to oil and gas operations and indicate a possible underestimation of emissions from these sources in bottom-up emission inventories. Overall, OMI observations have proved valuable in documenting rapid changes in air quality over different parts of the world during last decade. The baseline established during the first 11 years of OMI is indispensable for the interpretation of air quality measurements from current and future satellite atmospheric composition missions.

SO2 and NO2↗

Progress of Aircraft System Noise Assessment with Uncertainty Quantification for the Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project

Aircraft system noise predictions have been performed for NASA modeled hybrid wing body aircraft advanced concepts with 2025 entry-into-service technology assumptions. The system noise predictions developed over a period from 2009 to 2016 as a result of improved modeling of the aircraft concepts, design changes, technology development, flight path modeling, and the use of extensive integrated system level experimental data. In addition, the system noise prediction models and process have been improved in many ways. An additional process is developed here for quantifying the uncertainty with a 95% confidence level. This uncertainty applies only to the aircraft system noise prediction process. For three points in time during this period, the vehicle designs, technologies, and noise prediction process are documented. For each of the three predictions, and with the information available at each of those points in time, the uncertainty is quantified using the direct Monte Carlo method with 10,000 simulations. For the prediction of cumulative noise of an advanced aircraft at the conceptual level of design, the total uncertainty band has been reduced from 12.2 to 9.6 EPNL dB. A value of 3.6 EPNL dB is proposed as the lower limit of uncertainty possible for the cumulative system noise prediction of an advanced aircraft concept.

Thomas, Russell H.↗