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DOE OSTI2025

DONKEY: A Flexible and Accurate Algorithm for Clustering

We propose an accurate clustering algorithm suitable for the varied and multidimensional data sets that correspond to temporal snapshots from on-the-fly nonadiabatic trajectory-based simulations of photoexcited dynamics. The algorithm approximates the underlying probability density function using variable kernel density estimation, with local maxima corresponding to cluster centers. Each data point is then assigned to one of the maxima by employing a maximization procedure. Finally, clusters artificially separated by minor fluctuations in the probability density are merged. The algorithm does not require parameter tuning, which ensures flexibility and reduces the risk of bias. It is tested on several synthetic data sets, where it consistently outperforms conventional clustering algorithms. As a final example, the algorithm is applied to the excited dynamics of the norbornadiene ⇌ quadricyclane (C 7 H 8 ) molecular photoswitch, demonstrating how distinct reaction pathways can be identified.

algorithms↗

NASA NTRS1985

Observing large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents by satellite altimetry - With application to the Antarctic circumpolar current

A new method is developed for studying large-scale temporal variability of ocean currents from satellite altimetric sea level measurements at intersections (crossovers) of ascending and descending orbit ground tracks. Using this method, sea level time series can be constructed from crossover sea level differences in small sample areas where altimetric crossovers are clustered. The method is applied to Seasat altimeter data to study the temporal evolution of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) over the 3-month Seasat mission (July-October 1978). The results reveal a generally eastward acceleration of the ACC around the Southern Ocean with meridional disturbances which appear to be associated with bottom topographic features. This is the first direct observational evidence for large-scale coherence in the temporal variability of the ACC. It demonstrates the great potential of satellite altimetry for synoptic observation of temporal variability of the world ocean circulation.

Fu, L.-L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Displacement Analysis of Geothermal Field Based on PSInSAR And SOM Clustering Algorithms A Case Study of Brady Field, Nevada—USA

The availability of free and high temporal resolution satellite data and advanced SAR techniques allows us to analyze ground displacement cost-effectively. Our aim was to properly define subsidence and uplift areas to delineate a geothermal field and perform time-series analysis to identify temporal trends. A Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) algorithm was used to estimate vertical displacement in the Brady geothermal field located in Nevada by analyzing 70 Sentinel-1A Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR) images, between January 2017 and December 2019. To classify zones affected by displacement, an unsupervised Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm was applied to classify points based on their behavior in time, and those clusters were used to determine subsidence, uplift, and stable regions automatically. Finally, time-series analysis was applied to the clustered data to understand the inflection dates. The maximum subsidence is –19 mm/yr with an average value of –6 mm/yr within the geothermal field. The maximum uplift is 14 mm/yr with an average value of 4 mm/yr within the geothermal field. The uplift occurred on the NE of the field, where the injection wells are located. On the other hand, subsidence is concentrated on the SW of the field where the production wells are located. The coupling of the PSInSAR and the SOM algorithms was shown to be effective in analyzing the direction and pattern of the displacements observed in the field.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of temporal resolution selection approaches in energy systems models

Capacity expansion models for the power sector are used to project future decisions over the coming decades by simulating investment and operation decisions for the use of electricity. Due to model performance constraints, these models typically do not explicitly simulate every hour within a year, but instead simulate representative time segments (groups of hours). This paper evaluates different approaches for selecting time segments across three methods: sequential, categorical, and clustering, across a wide range of time-segment quantities, for a total of 204 temporal profiles. To measure the performance of each profile's ability to accurately represent data, the root-mean-square-error of each profile's time segments are compared to the data's original hourly data. The temporal alignment across regions is also measured (i.e., how often windy days align across regions). Different spatial resolutions were applied for a subset of the temporal selection methods to investigate the impact spatial resolution has on performance. This paper provides a framework for measuring the value of different temporal selection methods and of adding more granular data to energy system models. Overall, multi-criteria clustering yields the lowest root-mean-square-error across all datasets evaluated and provides a holistic view of the intertwined relationships between renewable generation and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1995

Repeating sources of classical gamma-ray bursts

From an analysis of the first catalog of the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) experiment (Fishman et al. 1993, 1994a) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), we find an excessive number of pairs of gamma-ray bursts which are clustered in both a space and time . The angular separation between the two bursts in each pair is less than their positional uncertainties, and the interval between their occurrence times is within several days. Optimizing the signal, we find that the probability of observing such a clustered excess froma Poisson ensemble is approximately 2 x 10(exp -5). We suggest that these bursts arise from repeating sources. A detailed study of the most prolific source, GBS 0855-00, is presented in a separate paper (Wang & Lingenfelter 1993a, b). Unlike most of the 'soft' gamma-ray repeaters, these repeating bursts have relatively hard spectra, complex light curves, and widely varying durations, that are indistinguishable from classical gamma-ray bursts. Although the significance of the clustered excess was optimized a posteriori, because it depends on temporal and spatial bin sized that could not be defined a priori, we can use the optimizations from the first catalog to test subsequent BATSE data sets. Unfortunately, the failure of the on-board tape recorders during the second catalog period seriously reduced the number of accurately positioned bursts (Fishman et al. 1994b), so that we can neither confirm, nor refute, the predicted repitition in that sample, and we must await the results of the third catalog.

Wang, V. C.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Scattering model for X-ray bursts - Massive black holes in globular clusters

A model for the X-ray bursts discovered from 3U 1820-30 (NGC 6624) is presented. The temporal and spectral variations observed in the bursts are interpreted as Compton scattering of a primary pulse in a hot cloud surrounding the X-ray source. The cloud parameters derived imply the presence of a collapsed core in the globular cluster source with a mass greater than several hundred solar masses.

Grindlay, J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Incorporating space and time into random forest models for analyzing geospatial patterns of drug-related crime incidents in a major U.S. metropolitan area

The opioid crisis has hit American cities hard, and research on spatial and temporal patterns of drug-related activities including detecting and predicting clusters of crime incidents involving particular types of drugs is useful for distinguishing hot zones where drugs are present that in turn can further provide a basis for assessing and providing related treatment services. In this study, we investigated spatiotemporal patterns of more than 52,000 reported incidents of drug-related crime at block group granularity in Chicago, IL between 2016 and 2019. We applied a space-time analysis framework and machine learning approaches to build a model using training data that identified whether certain locations and built environment and sociodemographic factors were correlated with drug-related crime incident patterns, and establish the top contributing factors that underlaid the trends. Space and time, together with multiple driving factors, were incorporated into a random forest model to analyze these changing patterns. We accommodated both spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the model learning process to assist with capturing the changes over time and tested the capabilities of the space-time random forest model by predicting drug-related activity hot zones. Overall, we focused particularly on crime incidents that involved heroin and synthetic drugs as these have been key drug types that have highly impacted cities during the opioid crisis in the U.S.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2014

Exploring Lightning Jump Characteristics

This study is concerned with the characteristics of storms exhibiting an abrupt temporal increase in the total lightning flash rate (i.e., lightning jump, LJ). An automated storm tracking method is used to identify storm "clusters" and total lightning activity from three different lightning detection systems over Oklahoma, northern Alabama and Washington, D.C. On average and for different employed thresholds, the clusters that encompass at least one LJ (LJ1) last longer, relate to higher Maximum Expected Size of Hail, Vertical Integrated Liquid and lightning flash rates (area-normalized) than the clusters that did not exhibit any LJ (LJ0). The respective mean values for LJ1 (LJ0) clusters are 80 min (35 min), 14 mm (8 mm), 25 kg per square meter (18 kg per square meter) and 0.05 flash per min per square kilometer (0.01 flash per min per square kilometer). Furthermore, the LJ1 clusters are also characterized by slower decaying autocorrelation functions, a result that implies a less "random" behavior in the temporal flash rate evolution. In addition, the temporal occurrence of the last LJ provides an estimate of the time remaining to the storm's dissipation. Depending of the LJ strength (i.e., varying thresholds), these values typically range between 20-60 min, with stronger jumps indicating more time until storm decay. This study's results support the hypothesis that the LJ is a proxy for the storm's kinematic and microphysical state rather than a coincidental value.

lightning jump↗

NASA NTRS1994

The photometric properties of the HST astrometer Fine Guidance Sensor

This paper presents the results of the photometric calibration of the F583W filter in the astrometer Fine Guidance Sensor on the Hubble Space Telescope. Dozens of observations of the 9.58 mag Fine Guidance Sensor (FGS) transfer mode reference star Upgren 69 (in the cluster NGC 188) have been utilized to verify the consistency and demonstrate the temporal stability of the photomultipliers. The measurements which provided the material for a transformation from the FGS instrumental system to the Johnson V magnitude consisted of the extensive position mode observations performed during the Optical Field Angle Distortion calibration. A total of 588 measurements of 92 stars in the galactic cluster M35 were performed. Johnson V band photometry with a precision (i.e., random errors) of plus or minus 0.05 mag is available with an accuracy (i.e., systematic errors) of 0.05 mag over 2 yr.

Bucciarelli, B.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Lightning Strike Distance Distribution Beyond a Preexisting Lightning Area

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) asked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to review the 30-year-old, lightning stand-off distances of 5 nautical miles (nmi) for applicability to today's operations. This was based on the realization that previous lightning strike distance studies did not match how 45 WS issues lightning warnings (Roeder, 2008). The previous lightning distance studies were from the point of origin of the lightning or the average starting location that would tend to be in the core of the thunderstorm. However, the 45 WS issues lightning warnings based on the edge of a preexisting lightning area. Before beginning the AMU project, it took several years to develop a method to calculate a distance distribution beyond a preexisting area (Roeder, 2015). The AMU pulled Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) sensor data from 1/1/2013 to 12/31/2013. This dataset consisted of 37 million individual source data points from the LDAR sensors. Only sources within 50 km north, south, east or west of the LDAR grid center were included in the dataset. This limited the use of LDAR data to that with the greatest accuracy of source detection and increased data processing. Points were grouped into flashes based on spatial and temporal criteria. Based on the sensitivity analysis the AMU performed on the flash clustering algorithm, a time value of 0.3 seconds was found to model flashes adequately. Distance parameters were tested from 1,500 to 7,500 meters (m) in 500 m increments. Distance parameters of both 3,000 m and 4,000 m produced results in the plotting tool that were most representative of the physical behavior of lightning. Thus statistics were gathered for the most representative of these spatial and temporal criteria on the flash size and the polygon expansion distance in order to find the correct data distributions. The best fit curves for the LDAR polygon expansion frequency vs. distances for both the 3 kilometer (km) and 4 km distance threshold values were exponential decay functions and had R2 values of > 0.998, indicating good model fits. The equations of the best fit curves were then used to calculate a desired safety radius of 4 nmi for either 3 km or 4 km distance threshold criteria. The AMU analysis concludes the safe reduction of the 5 nmi lightning warning circles to 4 nmi should improve the operational impact by 36% if based on distance from the center of the property area being protected. If based on the edge of the property being protected, then the reduction is 4.5 nmi to 4 nmi and the operational impact is decreased by 21%. For the 6 nmi lightning warning circles, the recommended 4 nmi stand-off distance will result in a safe reduction of operational impact of 31% if based on the center of the area being protected, or 16% if based on the edge of the property.

Flash clustering algorithm↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intermittent Criticality Multi‐Scale Processes Leading to Large Slip Events on Rough Laboratory Faults

Abstract We discuss data of three laboratory stick‐slip experiments on Westerly Granite samples performed at elevated confining pressure and constant displacement rate on rough fracture surfaces. The experiments produced complex slip patterns including fast and slow ruptures with large and small fault slips, as well as failure events on the fault surface producing acoustic emission bursts without externally‐detectable stress drop. Preparatory processes leading to large slips were tracked with an ensemble of ten seismo‐mechanical and statistical parameters characterizing local and global damage and stress evolution, localization and clustering processes, as well as event interactions. We decompose complex spatio‐temporal trends in the lab‐quake characteristics and identify persistent effects of evolving fault roughness and damage at different length scales, and local stress evolution approaching large events. The observed trends highlight labquake localization processes on different spatial and temporal scales. The preparatory process of large slip events includes smaller events marked by confined bursts of acoustic emission activity that collectively prepare the fault surface for a system‐wide failure by conditioning the large‐scale stress field. Our results are consistent overall with an evolving process of intermittent criticality leading to large failure events, and may contribute to improved forecasting of large natural earthquakes.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progenitor and close-in circumstellar medium of type II supernova 2020fqv from high-cadence photometry and ultra-rapid UV spectroscopy

ABSTRACT We present observations of SN 2020fqv, a Virgo-cluster type II core-collapse supernova (CCSN) with a high temporal resolution light curve from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) covering the time of explosion; ultraviolet (UV) spectroscopy from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) starting 3.3 d post-explosion; ground-based spectroscopic observations starting 1.1 d post-explosion; along with extensive photometric observations. Massive stars have complicated mass-loss histories leading up to their death as CCSNe, creating circumstellar medium (CSM) with which the SNe interact. Observations during the first few days post-explosion can provide important information about the mass-loss rate during the late stages of stellar evolution. Model fits to the quasi-bolometric light curve of SN 2020fqv reveal 0.23 M⊙ of CSM confined within 1450 R⊙ (1014 cm) from its progenitor star. Early spectra (<4 d post-explosion), both from HST and ground-based observatories, show emission features from high-ionization metal species from the outer, optically thin part of this CSM. We find that the CSM is consistent with an eruption caused by the injection of ∼5 × 1046 erg into the stellar envelope ∼300 d pre-explosion, potentially from a nuclear burning instability at the onset of oxygen burning. Light-curve fitting, nebular spectroscopy, and pre-explosion HST imaging consistently point to a red supergiant (RSG) progenitor with $M_{\rm ZAMS}\approx 13.5\!-\!15 \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$, typical for SN II progenitor stars. This finding demonstrates that a typical RSG, like the progenitor of SN 2020fqv, has a complicated mass-loss history immediately before core collapse.

Tinyanont, Samaporn (ORCID:0000000214814676)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data for "Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the shared socioeconomic pathways"

Datasets supporting findings and visualizations behind McManamay et al. (2024) Divergent urban land trajectories under alternative population projections within the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2eec Using a spatial modeling experiment at high resolution (1-km), this study compared how two alternative US population projections, varying in the spatially explicit nature of demographic patterns and migration, affect urban land dynamics simulated by the Spatially Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City development (SELECT) model for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5. The numerical experiment, inputs and outputs are fully described in McManamay et al. (2024). The datasets summarize SELECT model simulations within urban areas and rural areas of the conterminous United States. For code to reproduce the results, please refer to https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/mcmanamay_etal_2024_erl Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions: Urban_Land_delta_UA_County.csv: Urban land area for original (default) population, updated population, and urban land delta (difference between the two) according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and year. Urban land is summarized for U.S. counties (FIPS code) and urban areas (GEOID) as unique areas within various counties. JO_Gao_pop_ufdelta.csv: Comparison of population differences and urban land differences between the origial (default) and updated population projections. City_Case_studies.csv: Differences in urban land areas arising from different population projections summarized for selected cities (Atlanta, Los Angeles, Houston, and New York) and their surrounding rural areas UA_county_FID.zip: Zipped folder of .tiff file depicting unique combination of urban areas and US counties used for summarizing urban land differences in urban and rural areas based on different population projections. ULD_clusters.zip: Zipped folder of .csv files depicting normalized changes in urban land delta (difference in urban land arising from population projections) and the respective Ward's hierarchical clusters, which group urban and rural areas based on similarities in temporal trends. Urban_Percent_change_2100.zip: Zipped folder of .csv files depicting percent changes in urban land area for year 2100 based on differences in the original (default) population and updated population. Each file is for SSPs and urban or rural areas.

Land↗

NASA NTRS1983

X-ray emission from cataclysmic variables

X-ray observations of cataclysmic variables and theoretical work on X-ray emission from them are reviewed, emphasizing recent developments. Observations of luminosities and space densities, X-ray spectra and temporal behavior, and X-ray emitting cataclysmic variables in globular clusters are addressed. The relationship of disk and radial accretion to X-ray emission is qualitatively considered, and the spectra and correlation between spectral temperature and luminosity are examined for magnetic and nonmagnetic stars. The relationship between ionization structure and line features is summarized, and nuclear burning and electron conduction are briefly addressed. Important issues concerning X-ray emission from cataclysmic variables are discussed, including magnetic fields, the origin of hard and soft X-rays, the soft X-ray puzzle in AM Her stars, nuclear burning, long-period pulsing sources, cyclotron-dominated sources, high-luminosity sources, and the stability of accretion flow.

Lamb, D. Q.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The neurochemical basis of photic entrainment of the circadian pacemaker

Circadian rhythmicity in mammals is controlled by the action of a light-entrainable hypothalamus, in association with two cell clusters known as the supra chiasmatic nuclei (SCN). In the absence of temporal environmental clues, this pacemaker continues to measure time by an endogenous mechanism (clock), driving biochemical, physiological, and behavioral rhythms that reflect the natural period of the pacemaker oscillation. This endogenous period usually differs slightly from 24 hours (i.e., circadian). When mammals are maintained under a 24 hour light-dark (LD) cycle, the pacemaker becomes entrained such that the period of the pacemaker oscillation matches that of the LD cycle. Potentially entraining photic information is conveyed to the SCN via a direct retinal projection, the retinohypothalamic tract (RHT). RHT neurotransmission is thought to be mediated by the release of excitatory amino acids (EAA) in the SCN. In support of this hypothesis, recent experiments using nocturnal rodents have shown that EAA antagonists block the effects of light on pacemaker-driven behavioral rhythms, and attenuate light induced gene expression in SCN cells. An understanding of the neurochemical basis of the photic entrainment process would facilitate the development of pharmacological strategies for maintaining synchrony among shift workers in environments, such as the Space Station, which provide unreliable or conflicting temporal photic clues.

Rea, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Analysis and visualization of single-trial event-related potentials

In this study, a linear decomposition technique, independent component analysis (ICA), is applied to single-trial multichannel EEG data from event-related potential (ERP) experiments. Spatial filters derived by ICA blindly separate the input data into a sum of temporally independent and spatially fixed components arising from distinct or overlapping brain or extra-brain sources. Both the data and their decomposition are displayed using a new visualization tool, the "ERP image," that can clearly characterize single-trial variations in the amplitudes and latencies of evoked responses, particularly when sorted by a relevant behavioral or physiological variable. These tools were used to analyze data from a visual selective attention experiment on 28 control subjects plus 22 neurological patients whose EEG records were heavily contaminated with blink and other eye-movement artifacts. Results show that ICA can separate artifactual, stimulus-locked, response-locked, and non-event-related background EEG activities into separate components, a taxonomy not obtained from conventional signal averaging approaches. This method allows: (1) removal of pervasive artifacts of all types from single-trial EEG records, (2) identification and segregation of stimulus- and response-locked EEG components, (3) examination of differences in single-trial responses, and (4) separation of temporally distinct but spatially overlapping EEG oscillatory activities with distinct relationships to task events. The proposed methods also allow the interaction between ERPs and the ongoing EEG to be investigated directly. We studied the between-subject component stability of ICA decomposition of single-trial EEG epochs by clustering components with similar scalp maps and activation power spectra. Components accounting for blinks, eye movements, temporal muscle activity, event-related potentials, and event-modulated alpha activities were largely replicated across subjects. Applying ICA and ERP image visualization to the analysis of sets of single trials from event-related EEG (or MEG) experiments can increase the information available from ERP (or ERF) data. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1990

Possible Martian brines - Radar observations and models

The 1971 and 1973 Goldstone 12.6-cm radar observations of Mars are separate data sets which include reflectivity as a function of latitude, longitude, and season. It has been argued that secular reflectivity variations of Mars' surface are indicated by the data and that shallow subsurface melting is the causal mechanism most compatible with the observations; however, the melting hypothesis conflicts with accepted notions of the state and distribution of water on Mars. The data are examined to identify temporal and spatial domains within which statistically significant changes in measured reflectivity are clustered. Brines which might satisfy the best supported reflectivity variations are out of equilibrium with the chemical megaenvironment. It is unclear whether such a brine, if emplaced in the Martian regolith at a depth shallow enough to affect the radar reflectivity, could survive even a single freeze-thaw cycle. Some combination of unique scattering properties or some as yet unidentified process other than melting is responsible for any genuine reflectivity variations.

Zent, Aaron P.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Considerations for Femtosecond Laser Electronic Excitation Tagging in High-Speed Flows

Femtosecond laser electronic excitation tagging (FLEET) is an unseeded method for molecular tagging which offers valuable opportunities for measurement of high-speed (transonic, supersonic or hypersonic) flows. The unique nature of high-speed testing demands certain performance from FLEET such as satisfactory signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at depressed static conditions (i.e., low temperatures, pressures and densities), wide dynamic range for velocity determination (especially single-shot), and measurements with acceptable accuracy and precision. This dissertation strives to evaluate FLEET in those regards and provide strategies to maximize the method's capabilities. A zero-dimensional kinetics model in nitrogen explains FLEET signal changes with pressure/density and/or temperature in terms of plasma-chemical reactions. Poorly known rate coefficients are tuned by comparing model output to measurements, with temporal agreement up to several hundred nanoseconds. Modeling reveals that initial signal peaks at reduced density because of slowed temporal evolution (and decay) of excited populations. Low temperatures enhance signal by enlarging cluster ion populations which contribute to excited species via electron-ion dissociative recombination. A purpose-built free jet facility provides experimental validation of the kinetics model and assesses FLEET velocimetry in low temperature and pressure/density conditions. Signal, lifetime, accuracy and precision results are obtained from unheated subsonic through Mach 4.0 operation of the facility, with best results noted. FLEET measurements of a sweeping jet (SWJ) actuator in compressible operation showcase its advantages in a highly unsteady jet containing subsonic through supersonic velocities. FLEET velocimetry is performed in the device's internal and external flow fields, with the latter compared to hot-wire anemometry. Internal measurements reveal the absence of shockwaves theorized to occur at high pressure ratios. Simultaneous qualitative measurements of compressible jet mixing are shown as a proof-of-concept. Overall, the work demonstrates that previous understanding of SWJ incompressible operation readily extends into the compressible realm. Practical aspects of performing FLEET velocimetry are detailed, along with strategies for improving measurement quality. Determination of a fundamental precision in nitrogen and air is attempted. Experiments show that increasing time delay and/or SNR improves velocimetry precision. A comparison of five camera systems indicates sensors with larger pixels capture higher SNR data and produce more precise results.

FLEET↗